HEIDELBERG INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT RESEARCH at the Department of Political Science, University of Heidelberg CONFLICT BAROMETER 2008 Crises - Wars - Coups d’Etat´ Negotiations - Mediations - Peace Settlements 17th ANNUAL CONFLICT ANALYSIS HIIK The HEIDELBERG INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT RESEARCH (HIIK) at the Department of Political Science, University of Heidelberg is a registered non-profit association. It is dedicated to research, evaluation and doc- umentation of intra- and interstate political conflicts. The HIIK evolved from the research project ’COSIMO’ (Conflict Simulation Model) led by Prof. Dr. Frank R. Pfetsch (University of Heidelberg) and financed by the German Research Association (DFG) in 1991. Conflict We define conflicts as the clashing of interests (positional differences) over national values of some duration and mag- nitude between at least two parties (organized groups, states, groups of states, organizations) that are determined to pursue their interests and achieve their goals. Conflict items Territory Secession Decolonization Autonomy System/ideology National power Regional predominance International power Resources Others Conflict intensities State of Intensity Level of Name of Definition violence group intensity intensity 1 Latent A positional difference over definable values of national meaning is considered conflict to be a latent conflict if demands are articulated by one of the parties and per- ceived by the other as such. Non-violent Low 2 Manifest A manifest conflict includes the use of measures that are located in the stage conflict preliminary to violent force. This includes for example verbal pressure, threat- ening explicitly with violence, or the imposition of economic sanctions. Medium 3 Crisis A crisis is a tense situation in which at least one of the parties uses violent force in sporadic incidents. 4 Severe A conflict is considered to be a severe crisis if violent force is used repeatedly crisis in an organized way. Violent High 5 War A war is a violent conflict in which violent force is used with a certain continuity in an organized and systematic way. The conflict parties exercise extensive measures, depending on the situation. The extent of destruction is massive and of long duration. In this publication, the intensity of each conflict as shown in the tables is the highest intensity reached in the course of the year. Therefore, conflicts may, for instance, be classified as severe crises although there may have been no more fighting in the second half of the year. The present Conflict Barometer 2008 reflects our current state of research. Because conflict data even of previous years is continuously reviewed, this edition’s data might differ from older editions. Therefore, if you wish to trace a conflict over time, please contact us in order to receive up-to-date time series evaluations. The HIIK assumes no liability for the accuracy of the data printed in this publication. Editorial deadline: November 30, 2008 Global Conflict Panorama 1 Global Conflict Panorama Global Development fraud sparked nationwide ethnic clashes continuing for weeks which caused 1,500 fatalities [! Kenya (opposi- A total of 345 conflicts was counted in 2008. Apart tion)]; in Nigeria, a disputed local chairmanship election from the 39 conflicts fought out with the use of a mas- resulted in two days of massacres between Christians sive amount of violence, 95 conflicts were conducted and Muslims, leaving at least 400 people dead [! Nige- with sporadic use of violence and therefore classified ria (Christians - Muslims)]. Those of last year’s severe as crises. In contrast, 211 non-violent conflicts were crises that neither escalated to wars nor remained on counted, which could be subdivided into 129 manifest this intensity level all (ten) deescalated to the level of a and 82 latent conflicts. Compared to the previous year, crisis, i.e. remained violent despite deescalation. the number of conflicts remained almost the same (344 The total number of conflicts rose by one, as five con- in 2007 and 345 in 2008). flicts ended in 2007 and six new conflicts emerged in 2008. In addition, four conflicts were considered to have Global Conflict Intensities in 2008 compared to ended in 2008. In Europe, one conflict ended in 2008, 2007 as Macedonia and the self-proclaimed independent re- public of Kosovo settled their territorial dispute [! Mace- 150 2007 140 2008 129 donia (Kosovo)]. In Africa, one conflict had ended in 130 126 120 2007, and a new violent conflict arose in 2008. Two con- 110 107 flicts ended in 2008, one of them in Angola, where the 100 95 90 first elections in 16 years were clearly won by the ruling 79 82 80 Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA). 70 60 The main opposition party and former rebel group Union number of conflicts 50 for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) accepted 40 30 30 26 its defeat, thereby ending a decades-long conflict that 20 9 had been fought out with a huge amount of violence. 10 6 0 In Chad, the rebel group Movement for Democracy and latent conflict manifest conflict crisis severe crisis war Justice (MDJT), which had actively fought the govern- ment from 1998 to 2003 [! Chad (MDJT), joined ranks The total number of non-violent conflicts rose by six, with several other rebel groups fighting the government while the number of crises decreased by twelve. How- since 2005 [! Chad (various rebel groups)]. Two territo- ever, after a relatively peaceful year 2007, the number of rial disputes in the Americas ended in 2007 due to inter- highly violent conflicts rose once more in 2008. Nine national court rulings, i.e. the conflicts between Guyana wars and 30 severe crises were counted, amounting and Suriname, and Honduras and Nicaragua, respec- to 39 highly violent conflicts, as compared to six wars tively. Four new conflicts emerged in 2008, all of which and 26 severe crises, i.e. a total of 32 highly violent were intrastate and turned violent in the very year of their conflicts, in 2007. Four of the wars had already been fought out on this intensity level in 2007: Afghanistan Table of Contents (Taliban), Sudan (Darfur), Somalia (UIC), and Sri Lanka Global Conflict Panorama 1 (LTTE). All of the four had already been wars in 2006; Global Development . 1 the conflict in Darfur was actually carried out as a war Analysis intrastate - interstate . 3 for the fifth year running, indicating a hardening and self- Regional Development . 5 perpetuation of massive violence. Four of the remain- Worldmap: High-Intensity Conflicts in 2008 . 6 Dynamics within individual Conflicts . 7 ing five wars of 2008 had been severe crises in 2007: Conflict Items . 7 Chad (various rebel groups), Iraq (al-Sadr group), Pak- Coups d’Etat´ ...........................................8 istan (Islamists), and Turkey (PKK/KONGRA-GEL / Kur- Terrorism . 9 dish areas). Their escalation to wars indicated an in- Measures of Conflict Resolution 11 tensification of already massive violence. Only in the Negotiations and Treaties . 11 case of Russia vs. Georgia, a hitherto non-violent but International Organizations . 11 nevertheless tense conflict escalated to a rather short Autoritative Decisions by the ICJ . 14 war. The two wars in 2007 which did not continue on this level of intensity in 2008, i.e. Iraq (insurgents) and Regions 16 Europe . 16 Pakistan (North and South Waziristan), slightly deesca- Sub-Saharan Africa . .30 lated to the level of severe crises. The overall number The Americas . 51 of severe crises increased by four in 2008. While two Asia and Oceania . .59 of these had been wars in 2007 (see above) and twelve The Middle East and Maghreb . 77 had already been severe crises, 14 escalated from the level of a crisis, and two from the level of a manifest con- flict. Both of these were located in sub-Saharan Africa: beginning [! Chile (Mapuche); Nicaragua (various op- In Kenya, opposition protests against alleged election position groups); Panama (opposition); Peru (opposi- 2 Conflict Barometer 2008 Number of Intra- and Interstate Conflicts in 2008 by tion)]. One conflict in the Americas was considered to Intensity Level have ended in 2008. In Asia and Oceania, two conflicts 110 had ended in 2007, i.e. Singapore (Malays) and Vietnam interstate intrastate (KKNLF). In the Middle East and Maghreb, no conflict 100 87 88 ended either in 2007 or 2008, and no new conflict broke 90 80 out in 2008. 70 In order to reveal a long-term trend, the five intensity 60 levels are categorized into three groups: The two non- 50 41 41 42 violent levels are summarized as low intensity, crises as 40 number of conflicts 30 medium intensity, and severe crises and wars as con- 30 flicts of high intensity. The graph below also displays 20 10 7 8 the total number of conflicts observed. As the graph 00 1 0 shows, the number of conflicts observed per year has latent conflict manifest conflict crisis severe crisis war risen more or less continuously. Most of the conflicts are low-intensity conflicts. Regarding high-intensity conflicts, Pakistan - India, Thailand - Cambodia (border), and USA a continuous and - for the most part - regular increase, - Pakistan. Two of these, i.e. Armenia - Azerbaijan, interrupted by minor phases of deescalation is evident. and Chad - Sudan, had already been crises in 2006 and 2007, while Israel - Lebanon had already been a crisis in Global Conflicts of low, medium and high Intensity 2007, and a severe crisis in 2006. Eight of the nine wars 1945 to 2008 as well as all of the 30 severe crises were conducted 400 low intensity within a state. medium intensity 350