Public Opinion in Ukraine 2011

Findings from the IFES 2011 survey in Ukraine

Fieldwork conducted 16- PUBLIC OPINION IN 30 July 2011

Sample size, n=1515

UKRAINE 2011 Funding provided by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Methodological Details

• 1,515 respondents representing the voting-age population in Ukraine Sample size: (18 years+).

Margin of error: • ± 2.52% within a 95% confidence interval.

• All the administrative divisions of Ukraine; 1,265 observations were Sample area coverage: allocated proportionately at the national level with an over-sample of 125 observations in Kyiv and 125 in AR Crimea.

Fieldwork dates: • 16 to 30 July 2011.

• IFES contracted with the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) to Survey firm: conduct fieldwork and data processing for the survey.

• The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Funding: provided funding for this survey.

• Data was weighted by age, region and gender to bring the realized Weights: sample in line with target population parameters in order to be nationally representative of the adult (18+) population of Ukraine. Direction in which Ukraine is Headed

76% Regional Trends 74% East (Stability, Instability) 62% 2010: 22, 42 2011: 12, 61   47% 44% 43% South 33% 2010: 43, 19 2011: 18, 48    21% 21% 15% 13% 12% West 6% 7% 2010: 10, 59 201: 6, 67  Feb 2005 Nov 2005 Sep 2007 Oct 2008 Nov 2009 Sep 2010 July 2011 Center 2010: 17, 48 Stability Instability 2011: 14, 59

“Do you think Ukraine is on the right track toward stability and prosperity in the future, or do you think Ukraine is on a path toward instability and chaos?” (n=1515) Satisfaction with Situation in Ukraine

“What are in your view the most serous problems that Ukraine as a country faces today?” 46% • Inflation (74%) 70% • Poverty (54%) 87% • Unemployment (53%) • Corruption (49%) 24% • General economic problems (32%) • Political bickering/political 11% instability (20%) • External debt (11%) 30% 20% 5% 8% Foreign Policy Situation Political Situation Economic Situation

Very/somewhat satisfied DK/NR Very/somewhat dissatisfied

“Please tell me how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with each of the following: economic situation in Ukraine, political situation in Ukraine, foreign policy situation?” (n=1515) Confidence in Institutions and Leaders

The media in Ukraine 54% 12% 34% Mayor of your city/village local self-government 50% 11% 39% Your City/Village council 46% 11% 43% Ukraine's military forces 37% 23% 40% Your Raion administrator 32% 29% 39% Your Oblast governor/Head of Crimean Council 30% 33% 37% Head of Front of Change Arseniy Yatsenyuk 30% 11% 60% President Viktor Yanukovych 29% 6% 65% Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko 24% 6% 70% Central Election Commission 23% 19% 58% Cabinet of Ministers 22% 5% 73% Prime Minister Mykola Azarov 20% 7% 73% Vice Premier Sergei Tygypko 20% 7% 73% The Verhovna Rada 18% 4% 78% Ministry of Justice 17% 27% 55% Minister of Education Dmytro Tabachnyk 12% 19% 69%

Great deal/Fair amount DK/NR Not very much/Not at all

I am now going to ask you about several government institutions and leaders. For each, please tell me how much confidence you have in them.” (n=1515) Opinions on Preferred Form of Government, trend

Opinions on Democracy as Form of Govt., Trend

By region: 2011 (n=1,515) 35% 18% 14% 33% Preference for democracy highest: • West (48%) • Center (39%) • Kyiv (36%)

Apathy highest in the: 2010 (n=1,519) 32% 25% 16% 27% • South (39%) • East (39%) • North (34%)

Democracy preferable Non-democratic can be preferable DK/NR Doesn't matter

Please tell me which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion: Democracy is preferable to any other form of government; In certain situations, a non-democratic government can be preferable; To me, it doesn’t matter what form of government we have. (n=1,515)

Ukraine as a Democracy

“Is Ukraine a democracy?” (n=1,515) Yes

No 64%

59% 59% 54%

Comparing East to West: 58% 53% 50% 49% 49% 47% in East say Ukraine is 50% 44% not a democracy compared 46% to 36% in the West. 40% 41% The West also had the 31% 30% highest percentage of 30% 26% 27% respondents volunteering 22% 25% that they believe Ukraine is 23% 22% 24% ‘both’ a democracy and not a 21% 17% 15% democracy (21%). 18%

Jun 99 Jan 00 Dec 00 Sep 01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Oct 04 Feb 05 Nov 05 Sep 07 Oct 08 Nov 09 Sep 10 Aug 11

Is Ukraine a democracy? Opinions on Charges against Tymoshenko & Lutsenko

Former Prime Minister Yulia 42% 32% 16% Tymoshenko 11%

Former Minister of Internal Affairs 42% 31% 14% 13% Yuriy Lutsenko

Politically motivated Legitimate Both DK/NR

On Tymoshenko charges: • West (63%), North (54%), Center (43%), and Kyiv (43%) view the charges as politically motivated. • South (46%) and East (44%) view the charges as legitimate.

Nearly identical percentages for Lutsenko charges.

For each of the following individuals, please tell me if you think the charges against them are politically motivated or legitimate.” (n=1,515) --Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko --Former Minister of Internal Affairs Yuriy Lutsenko

Opinions on NGOs

12% 18% 24% 33% 37% 22% 27% 27%

39% 41% 66% 55% 49% 28% 22%

NGOs address areas NGOs contribute to the NGOs represent all of NGOs only do work that NGOs represent foreign that the government is betterment of Ukraine. Ukrainian society. benefits themselves interests that do not either unable or and not the people of reflect the will of unwilling to address. Ukraine. Ukrainians.

Strongly/somewhat agree DK/NR Somewhat/strongly disagree

“Now I am going to read some statements about NGOs in Ukraine. For each statement, please tell me if you Agree or Disagree.” (n=792) Opinions on Political Parties

Sep 2009 20 Sep 2010 16 July 2011

0 Party of Batkivchshyna* Front of Strong Communist UDAR*** All-Ukrainian None Regions Change Ukraine** Party Freedom

*Tymoschenko bloc in 2009; **Tygypko bloc in 2009; ***Klitchko bloc in 2009

“Turing to another topic, please look at this list of political parties and tell me which of these parties best represents the interest of people like you.” (n=1515) Awareness of Draft Election Law

Don't Know A Fair Amount 5% A Great Deal 6% 1%

Nothing At All Not Too Much 44% 44%

“As you may know, the parliament has recently introduced a draft election law bill to change the way Deputies are elected to the Verkhovna Rada. How much have you heard about what the government is proposing?” (n=1515) Opinions on System of Voting

A system where voters vote only for political parties to fill all seats in parliament 6%

DK/NR 19%

A mixed system where A system where voters half of the seats in vote directly for parliament are filled candidates who will through voting for represent them in parties, and half are parliament filled by direct voting 51% of candidates. 24%

“In your opinion, what would be the best way for Ukrainians to vote for parliament in Ukraine? (n=1515)