KEMENTERIAN PERENCANAAN PEMBANGUNAN NASIONAL/ BADAN PERENCANAAN PEMBANGUNAN NASIONAL

Keynote Speech

Integrating Population Dynamics into Urban Development Plans: Sustainable Cities, Human Mobility and International Migration

Deputy Minister for Population and Labor Kementerian PPN/Bappenas

Tuesday, November 28th 2017

1 Outline

• Overview

• Challenges

• Policy responses

2 Overview: Urban Development

3 Urban Population Significantly Rose between 1971-2015

• has been experiencing population structural changes in the last few decades as a result of successful community- based family planning program in 1970s • In 2015, Indonesia had the largest productive age group in the region • During the same period, urban population has increased as much as 7 (seven) times

1971 2010 2015

70-74 80-84 80-84

60-64 70-74 70-74 60-64 60-64 50-54 50-54 50-54 40-44 40-44 40-44 30-34 30-34 30-34 20-14 20-24 20-24 10-14 10-14 10-14 Thousand Thousand Thousand 0-4 0-4 0-4 20.000 10.000 0 10.000 20.000 20.000 10.000 0 10.000 20.000 20.000 10.000 0 10.000 20.000 Female Male Female Male Female Male

Total Population 119.2 millions Total Population 237.6 millions Total Population 255.1 millions Life expectancy 55.1 years Life expectancy 69.8 years Life expectancy 70.8 years Urban population 14.6% Urban population 49.7% Urban population 53.1% Source: Census 1971 & 2010, Intercensal Survey 2015, Statistics Indonesia 4 Unequal Distribution of Urban Population Among Regions

Provinces with Highest Population Density in 2016 Projected Population per Island in 2045 DKI 15.478

West Java 1.339 Urbans with DIY 1.188 highest population 1.263 density are in Java island. 1.037

East Java 817 Source: Perhitungan Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia 2010-2045, Bappenas (2017) Large disparities 727 of urban In 2045, we project that population Urban population is NTT 264 development of economic between western estimated to rise centers will create more Lampung and eastern part from 53,1% in 237 urban and “more of Indonesia 2015 to 69,1% in developed” rural outside Riau Islands 247 2035 Java Island Indonesia 135 (per sq.km) 0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 5 Source: Statistics Indonesia (2017) Source: UN Population Prospect 2010-2085 Urban Agglomeration as an Engine of Economic Growth

Contribution of Metropolitan Areas to GDP in 2015 All metropolitan areas have contributed more than one third of National GDP in Jabodetabek 19,15% 2015

DKI Jakarta 16,20% Almost half of the urban Gerbangkertosusilo 6,55% contribution to the National GDP comes from DKI Jakarta Bandung Raya 3,08%

Mebidangro 2,24% More than 90% of the richest Kedungsepur 2,18% Indonesians reside in Jabodetabek, controlling more Mamminasata 1,21% than 50% of financial wealth

Sarbagita 0,67%

6 Source: Boston Consulting Group (2017) Challenges

7 Impact of Population Dynamics on Sustainable Development

• Population structural changes in Indonesia have affected the characteristics of consumers & producers. • Currently, with emerging number of working population, consumption pattern has evolved, for example more consumers goods, fuel for transportation, or even tourism demand. • In the future, Indonesia also has to prepare for the ageing population, low fertility, low mortality, and more dynamic population mobility within and outside the country. • Sustainable Development Goals is expected to lead the policy into more balance Source: Salim et al. (2015) population growth and mobility.

8 Urban Development and Its Sustainability

Future Challenges  Massive land conversion in urban areas

• Low density areas rapidly change into high Drivers Pressures density areas. • Urbanization • Natural resources consumption • Farming land and open green areas are • Population growth • Climate change • GHGs & CO2 emission converted into residential areas • Economic • Energy  Slow development of mass transportation in development • Raw materials (water, food) • Land expansion urban areas • Intensity of Disaster • Transformation of main transportation system • Poverty & inequality is not as fast as urban population growth • Few cities with railway system and Outcomes • Lower quality and interconnected transportation system Responses environmental support  More population vs waste management system Sustainable urbanization • Energy, water and food insecurity  Urban poverty and income inequality • Higher poverty incidences  More migration from rural areas due to climate and inequality • Increase in social conflict change and security threat • Higher risk & vulnerability • Threat to conservation 9 Sources: BPS (2016), Ministry of Transportation (2016), JICA (2014) Access to Basic Services, 2016

 Access to drinking water: 92,44% 40,54%  Access to Sanitation : 90,42% Households (14% already included safe category according to the World Bank (2013)) do not own  Open defecation : 11.08% (28.8 million people) house

In 2016, Jakarta still has conventional type of sewerage system

Data Source : Susenas 2007-2016. Indonesia Statistics10 Policy Responses

11 Targets of Urban Development

Green and Resilient Liveable Smart and Competitive

Transparent, Integrated between Cities City with Local Identity Accountable and and Regions Responsive Governance 12 Three Primary Aspects to Promote Livable Cities

• To promote growth for sustainable consumption and production in urban and rural areas Economic • To promote decent jobs • To promote diversified jobs in rural areas • To strengthen connectivity between urban and rural areas

• To eradicate capability deprivation Social • To ensure access to higher quality education • To promote health & well-being, through universal Development health insurance coverage

• To promote the use of renewable energy • To provision of clean water Environment • To enable pollution free air • To ensure access to healthy and affordable food • To improve waste management

13 Public Private Partnerships to Promote Sustainable Urban Development

Provision of Basic Services, especially Build mass transportation based road, rail, and intermoda to for the poorest 40% in urban areas increase public transport share in urban areas

 Developing Mass-Rapid-Transportation, Light-Rail-Transit, and Bus-  Subsiding construction of basic service Way at the urban areas: Jakarta-Cibubur, Jakarta-Bekasi, Palembang, facilities in slums area Bandung, Surabaya  Public – private partnerships in building  Increasing capacity of commuter system between cities the public areas to improve the sanitation  Developing inter-moda transportation system from the airport to system and access to drinking water reduce congestion from and to the cities as well as to reduce fuel use  Increasing understanding on the  Improving the capacity and quality of urban rail-road network importance of sanitation and healthy lifestyle  Transforming to cleaner and more energy efficient public transportation

Transformation of metropolitan and big cities to SMART CITY for more efficient energy utilization and environmentally friendly infrastructure

 Building smart city with six principles: Smart Governance, Smart Economy, Smart Mobility, Smart Environment, Smart People, and Smart Living  Strengthening public, private, and community partnerships to build soft and hard infrastructure in developing smart cities 14 Improving Productivity Human Resorces for More Innovations

Critical Link of Population Dynamics and Sustainable Development  Improving technical skills and Population Dynamics: competence of working age Demographic Dividend & population to adopt with new Urbanization technology  Partnerships with industries to develop curriculum for the Capacity Building & Knowledge formal education, vocational, Management INNOVATIONS and training system • Sharing Economy  Establishing and/or adopting • Product national or international Productivity Growth development standard of competencies in urban priority sectors • Smart local tourism  Partnerships with industries for • Financial technology mentoring program and Sustainable Development entrepreuneur aprenticeships

Source: Salim et al. (2015) 15 Thank You

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