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Energy & the 2020 Elections Energy & The 2020 Elections Jeff Horwitt, Senior Vice President Hart Research Associates Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research America Today: Attitudes ALREADY report high interest 69% in the 2020 elections (72% in Are very uncomfortable with Mid-October 2016) 50% Donald Trump running for president. Approve of the job that 51% Donald Trump is doing in handling the economy. Of Democratic Primary voters prefer a nominee who proposes larger-scale policies that cost more and might be harder to pass Of Americans believe in the statement, 52% into law, but could bring major change on “We need to keep shaking things up and issues like healthcare, climate change, college 48% make major changes in the way affordability, and economic opportunity. government operates.” Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 2 Americans Today: Behavior 69% Use social media at least once a day or more often. 42% Have made an effort to limit or quit using social media in the last year or two. Have blocked or unfriended someone on Facebook or other social media because 26% of their political opinions. 63% Pay most of their bills online. 42% Have applied for a job using an online job search site. Have a paid subscription to a newspaper or news magazine, either in print or 33% online. $ 26% Say someone in their household has more than $20,000 in student loan debt. 24% Have used a ride-sharing app like Uber or Lyft in the last month. Of working Americans have changed their behavior at work due to the increased 18% attention of sexual harassment (22% for men, 14% for women). Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 3 Americans’ Views of Social Media Social media does more to: Spread unfair attacks and rumors Hold public figures/ 55% against public figures corporations accountable 31% 57% Divide us Bring us together 35% Spread news and Spread lies and falsehoods 61% information 32% Use our Waste our time 82% time well 15% Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 4 Media Consumption Shapes Outlook Broadcast All network voters news TRUMP JOB Approve 46% 30% 34% 38% 73% APPROVAL Disapprove 51% 68% 64% 60% 26% OBAMA AFFORDABLE CARE ACT Good idea 41% 60% 55% 47% 25% HEALTHCARE LAW Bad idea 37% 23% 22% 30% 55% TRUMP TAX Good idea 27% 18% 17% 20% 47% REFORM LAW Bad idea 36% 54% 51% 41% 17% Enough evidence to begin hearings now 17% 26% 19% 19% 8% CONGRESSIONAL IMPEACHMENT Congress should continue investigating 32% 44% 44% 38% 24% HEARINGS Should not hold impeachment hearings/ 48% 28% 35% 41% 66% Trump should finish term Clears Trump 29% 15% 14% 21% 50% MUELLER Does not clear Trump 42% 61% 57% 47% 23% REPORT Unsure 30% 24% 29% 32% 27% 5 Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 5 Richard Nixon’s Job Rating After Major Events Democrats Independents Republicans Overall Job Rating JAN 1969 Nixon inaugurated 45% 59% 80% 59% JUN 1972 Watergate break-in/arrests 39% 61% 86% 56% OCT 1972 FBI calls break-ins major spying/sabotage campaign 46% 60% 90% 62% JAN 1973 Two top Nixon aides convicted 44% 51% 81% 59% APR 1973 Top Nixon staffers and Attorney General resign 36% 50% 76% 51% JUN 1973 Watergate hearings begin/John Dean testimony 26% 45% 72% 44% JUL 1973 Nixon refuses to turn over tapes 24% 40% 67% 39% OCT 1973 Saturday Night Massacre 15% 28% 56% 29% AUG 1974 Nixon resigns 13% 22% 50% 24% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 6 Bill Clinton’s Job Rating After Major Events Republicans Independents Democrats Overall Job Rating JAN 1993 Clinton inaugurated 30% 42% 70% 51% MAY 1994 Paula Jones lawsuit for "unwanted sexual advances" 25% 52% 77% 52% NOV 1996 Clinton is re-elected 23% 59% 85% 57% JAN 1998 Clinton denies relationship with Monica Lewinsky 40% 65% 89% 66% AUG 1998 Clinton admits relationship with Monica Lewinsky 37% 62% 90% 66% SEP 1998 Special Counsel Starr releases his report 37% 62% 90% 66% OCT 1998 House votes to begin impeachment investigation 38% 74% 91% 68% NOV 1998 Jones lawsuit is settled for $850,000 36% 65% 91% 65% DEC 1998 House impeaches Clinton 42% 68% 90% 68% FEB 1999 Senate acquits Clinton 36% 66% 92% 66% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 7 Donald Trump’s Job Rating After Major Events Democrats Independents Republicans Overall Job Rating JAN 2017 Trump inaugurated 9% 38% 86% 44% MAR 2017 Sessions recuses self from investigation 7% 30% 82% 40% Trump fires Comey/ MAY 2017 Mueller appointed special counsel 7% 35% 82% 39% OCT 2017 Manafort indicted (data from Dec 2017) 6% 39% 85% 41% DEC 2017 Flynn pleads guilty 8% 33% 78% 39% Manafort found guilty/ AUG 2018 Cohen indicted 12% 36% 87% 44% NOV 2018 Cohen pleads guilty 8% 41% 85% 43% JAN 2019 Stone indicted 5% 39% 86% 43% MAR 2019 Barr issues summary of Mueller report 9% 36% 85% 43% APR 2019 Redacted Mueller Report made public 11% 38% 90% 46% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 8 ENERGY IN THE 2020 ELECTIONS Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 9 The 2020 Issue Agenda Proportions saying they WORRY A GREAT DEAL about each of these issues facing the country Healthcare cost/availability 55% Federal spending/deficit 50% Hunger/homelessness 49% Crime/violence 47% Environment 47% Drug use 47% Income/wealth distribution 44% Social Security system 41% Availability of guns 41% Race relations 40% Illegal immigration 36% Economy 33% Terrorist attacks 33% Energy cost/availability 28% Unemployment 23% 10 Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 10 Worry about Environment & Energy, Over Time Worry a great deal about the ENVIRONMENT Worry a great deal about ENERGY 48% 48% 47% 47% 46% 47% 46% 43% 42% 42% 39% 38% 36% 37% 35% 35% 43% 34% 42% 34% 40% 40% 37% 35% 35% 34% 34% 35% 32% 31% 28% 28% 27% 27% 27% 25% Alaska crude: $25.14 $20.85 $35.53 $35.71 $47.73 $59.42 $60.00 $102.30 $77.95 $111.98 $127.34 $106.93 $111.55 $56.02 $34.49 $55.73 $64.75 $66.47 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 11 Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 11 Prioritization of Sources for Domestic Energy Production U.S. should put LESS emphasis on this energy source U.S. should put MORE emphasis on this energy source Net more emphasis Solar power 7% 2019 80% +73 9% 2015 79% +70 Wind 11% 2019 70% +59 14% 2015 70% +56 Natural gas 19% 2019 46% +27 12% 2015 55% +43 Nuclear 35% 2019 32% -3 33% 2015 35% +2 Oil 43% 2019 28% -15 2015 30% 41% +11 2019 Coal 50% 22% -28 2015 43% 28% -15 12 Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 12 Global climate change or global warming: which statement comes closest to your opinion? Serious problem/immediate action necessary or Enough evidence/some action should be taken Don’t know enough/more research necessary or Concern is unwarranted Net Serious Problem/ Take Action: +8 +22 +31 +14 +13 +24 +35 +28 +36 67% 66% 64% 63% 59% 61% 56% 54% 51% 43% 42% 41% 37% 37% 33% 35% 32% 30% July 1999 June 2006 Jan. 2007 Oct. 2009 Dec. 2009 June 2014 April 2017 Sept. 2017 Dec. 2018 13 Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 13 Climate Change Urgency by Party Over Time Proportions who say global climate change has been established as a serious problem and immediate action is necessary Democrats Independents Republicans Change since 1999 71% +42 65% 61% 50% 48% 47% 47% +22 39% 41% 39% 36% 38% 29% 26% 34% 23% 21% 25% 0 15% 16% 5% 15% 13% 12% 13% 11% 7% July 1999 June 2006 Jan. 2007 Oct. 2009 Dec. 2009 June 2014 April 2017 Sept. 2017 Dec. 2018 14 Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 14 Looking More Closely at Climate Urgency within Party Serious problem Enough evidence to take action Concern unwarranted More research needed Democrats Republicans 86% 85% 85% 85% 15% 15% 13% 15% 65% 58% 55% 49% 48% 34% 43% 30% 38% 29% 72% 24% 71% 70% 70% 31% 32% 24% 26% 19% 12% 12% 12% 31% 11% 24% 28% 26% 18% 19% 9% 10% 9% 10% 13% 12% Age 18 to 49 Age 50/older Men Women Age 18 to 49 Age 50/older Men Women 15 Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 15 Perceptions of the Parties: In the Mainstream – Out of the Mainstream Among Adults Overall (in the mainstream minus outside the mainstream) Climate Healthcare Abortion Immigration Fiscal Change Issues +21 +18 +10 +10 0 -1 -4 -11 -16 Perceptions of each party’s view on issues: Democratic Party -34 Republican Party 16 Energy and the 2020 Election – Jeff Horwitt/Senior Vice President Hart Research 16 Americans prefer protection of environment over energy.
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