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F a S T Update Madagascar Semi-Annual Risk Assessment June to November 2006
F A S T Update Madagascar Semi-annual Risk Assessment June to November 2006 T S A F © swisspeace FAST Update Madagascar | June to November 2006 | Page 2 Contents Country Stability and Cooperative International Events (relative) 3 Conflictive Government and Non-Government Events (relative) 5 Cooperative and Conflictive Domestic Events (relative) 8 Appendix: Description of indicators used 11 The FAST International Early Warning Program 12 FAST Update Subscription: www.swisspeace.org/fast/subscription_form.asp Contact FAST International: Country Expert: Phone: +41 31 330 12 19 Richard Marcus Fax: +41 31 330 12 13 mailto:[email protected] www.swisspeace.org/fast © swisspeace FAST Update Madagascar | June to November 2006 | Page 3 Country Stability and Cooperative International Events (relative) Average number of reported events per month: 127 Indicator description: see appendix Risk Assessment: • During the second half of 2006 Country Stability and Cooperative International Events in Madagascar were primarily a function of the social and political actions in the run-up to the much anticipated 3 December 2006 presidential elections. Promises for extended economic aid and long term program planning on the part of donors and other international actors slowed as the administration of President Marc Ravalomanana drew towards political action. Considering the large number of challengers to the presidency, and the volatility of the opposition, Country Stability remained notably high. The downward trend in the Country Stability index in November 2006 is a reflection primarily of a single event, and its repercussions: the weak effort by General Andrianafidisoa (Fidy) to stage a military challenge to the Ravalomanana regime. • The first half of 2006, like much of Ravalomanana’s presidency, was characterized by high levels of foreign assistance. -
A Cosmetic End to Madagascar's Crisis?
A Cosmetic End to Madagascar’s Crisis? Africa Report N°218 | 19 May 2014 International Crisis Group Headquarters Avenue Louise 149 1050 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 502 90 38 Fax: +32 2 502 50 38 [email protected] Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... i Recommendations..................................................................................................................... iii I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. From Deadlock to Elections ............................................................................................. 3 A. Postponed Elections................................................................................................... 3 B. Proxy Battles .............................................................................................................. 4 C. A Contested but Valid Election .................................................................................. 5 III. Old Wine, New Bottles ..................................................................................................... 7 A. Political Divides, Old and New .................................................................................. 7 1. Rivalry between Rajoelina and Rajaonarimampianina ....................................... 7 2. Parliamentary battles and the nomination of a prime minister ......................... -
Madagascar Revue Du Presse Octobre 2012
MADAGASCAR REVUE DU PRESSE OCTOBRE 2012 SOMMAIRE LA CRISE POLITIQUE ............................................................................................................................ 1 Mise en œuvre de la feuille de route, préparatifs électoraux, amnistie ................................................................................................ 1 Préparatifs électoraux, début officieux de la campagne d’Andry Rajoelina .................................................................................................. 1 Mise en œuvre de l’amnistie - Conseil de Réconciliation Malagasy (CRM), Commission spéciale .............................................................. 4 Opposition, retour de Marc Ravalomanana, affaire Ramaroson ........................................................................................................... 6 Affaire Ramaroson ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Armée, Parlement ................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Médiation de la SADC, COI .................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Diplomatie .............................................................................................................................................................................................. -
Legislative and Second Round of Presidential Elections in Madagascar Final Report
ELECTION REPORT ✩ Legislative and Second Round of Presidential Elections in Madagascar Final Report December 2013 The Carter Center strives to relieve suffering by advancing peace and health worldwide; it seeks to prevent and resolve conflicts, enhance freedom and democracy, and protect and promote human rights worldwide. ELECTION REPORT ✩ Legislative and Second Round of Presidential Elections in Madagascar Final Report December 2013 One Copenhill 453 Freedom Parkway Atlanta, GA 30307 (404) 420-5100 www.cartercenter.org Contents Foreword..................................... 4 Candidates, Parties, and Campaigns ......... 28 Executive Summary........................... 6 Campaign Finance ......................... 30 Key Findings and Recommendations ......... 7 Participation of Women, Minorities, and Marginalized Groups ....................... 30 The Carter Center in Madagascar ............. 11 The Media ................................ 31 Deployment of Observers for the Civil Society ............................... 32 Dec. 20 Elections .......................... 11 Election Day ................................. 34 Historical and Political Background........... 14 Opening and Polling ....................... 34 Overview ................................. 14 Voting Process ............................ 34 Single-Party Dominance and a Close Relationship With France (1960–1975) ....... 14 Postelection Developments .................. 38 Single-Party Dominance and the Transfer of Results to District Transmission Red Admiral’s Break With France ........... -
Transition Éléctorale À Madagascar Et Enjeux Sécuritaires
note n°01/2014 20 janvier 2014 Dr. Juvence F. Ramasy Maître de conférences en science politique à l’université de Toamasina (Madagascar) Dr. Olivier Vallée Docteur en science politique Transion électorale à Madagascar et enjeux sécuritaires Résumé tamment des élections communales compéti- Après l’instauration à Madagascar d’un régime tives en 2003 et 2007, commençait à s’enraci- militaire en mai 1972, l’amiral Ratsiraka ner. Le coup d’État de mars 2009 met alors un amorce une mutation vers une « démo- terme à cette évolution. Le pouvoir qui appar- crature » qui durera jusqu’en 1993, date de la tenait aux hommes et partis politiques domi- première alternance issue du vote. Cependant, nants pendant la période de la présidence de celle-ci n’intervient qu’après des manifesta- Marc Ravalomanana glisse vers les soldiers in tions pacifiques et leur violente répression par mufti . Ce déplacement se réalise alors avec le la garde présidentielle. Par la suite, les élec- concours des élites politiques marginalisées tions de 1996 et 2001 pouvaient laisser croire par le Président ainsi déposé et des élites éco- que Madagascar avait réussi sa transition dé- nomiques victimes du monopole du groupe mocratique, en dépit de nouvelles interfé- économique de ce dernier (Tiko). Malgré l’ins- rences militaires, et se dirigeait vers la consoli- tabilité politico-militaire et la dégradation de dation d’un système politique modernisé. En l’État depuis sa prise du pouvoir en 2009, le effet, ces élections ont alors permis l’accès au président auto-proclamé Andry Rajoelina a pouvoir d’une élite plus libérale et politicienne systématiquement repoussé les élections, ins- que l’élite postcoloniale où la hiérarchie sécu- crivant Madagascar dans la catégorie des pro- ritaire, alliée à la bureaucratie et aux églises tracted transition . -
The World Factbook
The World Factbook Africa :: Madagascar Introduction :: Madagascar Background: Formerly an independent kingdom, Madagascar became a French colony in 1896 but regained independence in 1960. During 1992-93, free presidential and National Assembly elections were held ending 17 years of single-party rule. In 1997, in the second presidential race, Didier RATSIRAKA, the leader during the 1970s and 1980s, was returned to the presidency. The 2001 presidential election was contested between the followers of Didier RATSIRAKA and Marc RAVALOMANANA, nearly causing secession of half of the country. In April 2002, the High Constitutional Court announced RAVALOMANANA the winner. RAVALOMANANA achieved a second term following a landslide victory in the generally free and fair presidential elections of 2006. In early 2009, protests over increasing restrictions on opposition press and activities resulted in RAVALOMANANA handing over power to the military, which then conferred the presidency on the mayor of Antananarivo, Andry RAJOELINA, in what amounted to a coup d'etat. Numerous attempts have been made by regional and international organizations to resolve the subsequent political gridlock by forming a power-sharing government. Madagascar's independent electoral commission and the UN originally planned to hold a presidential election in early May 2013, but postponed the election until late July 2013, due to logistical delays. Geography :: Madagascar Location: Southern Africa, island in the Indian Ocean, east of Mozambique Geographic coordinates: 20 00 S, -
AC Vol 43 No 10
www.africa-confidential.com 17 May 2002 Vol 43 No 10 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL SOUTH AFRICA I I 3 SOUTH AFRICA Mbeki’s front line President Thabo Mbeki’s rapid rise Will the real Thabo Mbeki stand up? in the ANC followed years of Ahead of a hectic six months of hosting world leaders and trying to building a circle of friends and wring trade concessions from them, Mbeki changes course supporters in his exile years. Most of them now occupy key positions This year’s workload for President Thabo Mbeki is overwhelming. He and his colleagues from Africa’s in business and the media but most big nations must oversee the transformation of the Organisation of African Unity into the African Union of all in the party hierarchy. in July when it meets in Durban. In June, he will be in Canada, as chief salesman of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NePAD). In August, his government will host, in Johannesburg, the United SUDAN 4Nations World Summit on Sustainable Development (known as ‘Rio plus 10’, since it is ten years since the first such meeting, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). And in December, he will face the 50th annual The fire does not conference of his own African National Congress, whose old allies, the Congress of South African Trade Unions and the SA Communist Party, will grumble loudly about the government’s free-market economic cease policies. The US-brokered ceasefire in the Mbeki is clearing the decks. To the relief of his supporters and the surprise of his detractors, he has Nuba Mountains was meant to changed his stance on HIV/AIDS and Zimbabwe, which had seriously damaged his own and South bring relief to the Nuba people and push the government towards Africa’s standing in the world. -
AC Vol 42 No 11
www.africa-confidential.com 1 June 2001 Vol 42 No 11 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL ANGOLA 2 ANGOLA Lev Leviev takes on De Beers Who blinks first? Government and UNITA rebels edge reluctantly towards a ceasefire De Beers announced on 24 May that it was halting its diamond and new negotiations in one of Africa’s longest-running wars business in Angola. This is a Rebel leader Jonas Savimbi has a cruel sense of timing. For 18 months, he has been calling on the triumph for Israeli-based tycoon Leviev, whose diamond interests ruling Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola to start talking again to his União Nacional para spread across Africa and Russia. a Independência Total de Angola. On 2 May, President José Eduardo dos Santos made his most conciliatory statement for a year, talking of a ‘route to peace’ and a dialogue with UNITA (AC Vol 42 No 9). Three days later, Savimbi’s fighters killed at least 80 people in Caxito, abducting 60 GHANA 3 children from a local orphanage. Many in Luanda believe both leaders are inching towards new negotiations but want to save face Ole Kufuor! and get the best negotiating position beforehand. Dos Santos is under pressure from the growing Coup rumours don’t faze President popularity of Luanda’s peace movement and needs a ceasefire if he’s to hold elections next year. John Kufuor. This week Kufuor Savimbi is feeling the pressure of sanctions, the government’s military efforts and the factionalising flew into Valencia to speak at the African Development Bank’s of his UNITA organisation. -
Madagascar : La Crise a Un Tournant Critique ?
MADAGASCAR : LA CRISE A UN TOURNANT CRITIQUE ? Rapport Afrique N°166 – 18 novembre 2010 TABLE DES MATIERES SYNTHESE ............................................................................................................................... i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. LES RAISONS DE L’ENLISEMENT DE LA TRANSITION ..................................... 2 A. DES PRESSIONS INSUFFISANTES ET OPPOSEES ............................................................................... 2 1. La communauté internationale : entre position de principe et lassitude ...................................... 2 2. La Haute autorité de la transition : une base fragile à ménager ................................................... 4 3. L’armée indécise .......................................................................................................................... 5 4. Les trois mouvances et l’enlisement : principes ou stratégie ? .................................................... 6 B. UNE CONVERGENCE D’INTERETS ? ............................................................................................... 7 1. Un pouvoir de l’ombre ................................................................................................................. 7 2. Népotisme et affairisme ............................................................................................................... 8 3. La déliquescence de l’Etat ........................................................................................................ -
Overview of Madagascar 2003‐2009 2003 2004
OVERVIEW OF MADAGASCAR 2003‐2009 Madagascar is the 4th largest island in the world, with a population of roughly 20.7 million. It is subject to a cyclone season that annually sees death and destruction, and around 75% of the population lives on less than $1 a day. It is generally peaceable, although presidential elections tend to see spikes in violence. There is a strong tradition of protest, and it has become a powerful tool in the political sphere, particularly with regard to presidential candidates and incumbents. Having been on the brink of civil war in 2001‐2, violence again flared in 2009 as Andry Rajoelina challenged Marc Ravalomanana’s authority, denouncing him as a tyrant. Currently, there is an interim administration with elections due next autumn (2010). 2003 2003 proved to be relatively Quiet in the aftermath of political turbulence in 2001‐2 due to disputed presidential elections, which were eventually won by Marc Ravalomanana. There were scattered opposition demonstrations countrywide, but the violence that characterised the previous two years was far less. An oil workers’ strike disrupted oil supply for a short period in October, and students rioted and protested in March‐April over poor conditions. A grenade attack in January bore the hallmarks of similar attacks that plagued the country throughout 2004. 2004 Army reservists (‘Zanadambo’) held a series of protests against President Ravalomanana due to what they considered to be inadeQuate compensation for their backing during the political crisis of 2001‐ 2. In June, 32 people were injured during clashes with the police on such a march. -
Un an Après Le Début De La Crise Politique Malgache, Quel Bilan ?
Actuelle de l’Ifri L’Afrique en questions 7 : Un an après le début de la crise politique malgache, quel bilan ? Mathieu Pellerin Jean-Éric Rakotoarisoa Février 2010 1 © Ifri Un an après le début de la crise politique malgache, quel bilan ? La crise malgache, inaugurée avec les tristes évènements du 26 janvier 20091, a aujourd’hui un an et aucune perspective de sortie de crise n’est apparue. Les accords de Maputo II (9 aout 2009) et d’Addis Abeba (6 novembre 2009) ne sont plus d’actualité et le Groupe International de Contact (GIC), aujourd’hui mené par Jean Ping, a tenté une médiation de la dernière chance devant déboucher sur une mission de l’Union Africaine (UA) du 11 au 13 février à Antananarivo. Le Président de la Haute Autorité de la Transition (HAT), Andry Rajoelina, doit proposer à l’UA des mesures plus inclusives, réintégrant les trois autres mouvances dans le processus de sortie de crise (mouvances Albert Zafy, Didier Ratsiraka, Marc Ravalomanana). Depuis le 3 janvier, ces trois mouvances ont d’ailleurs choisi de se réunir au sein de la très fragile « mouvance Madagascar ». Les aides internationales demeurent suspendues, le pouvoir du Président de la HAT n’a pas été reconnu et son assise demeure des plus fragiles, tant en raison de l’érosion de ses soutiens politiques que de l’influence grandissante de l’armée au sein de l’appareil étatique. De nombreux observateurs craignent un progressif délitement de l’État malgache. Concomitamment à ce blocage politique, la situation économique, comme le contexte sécuritaire, continuent de se dégrader, ce qui ne permet pas d’écarter l’éventualité d’une nouvelle mobilisation populaire. -
Violences Électorales À Madagascar : Consolider Le Rôle Des Acteurs Électoraux Dans La Prévention, La Gestion Et Le Règlement Des Conflits
Violences électorales à Madagascar : consolider le rôle des acteurs électoraux dans la prévention, la gestion et le règlement des conflits Etude arrêtée à la date du 31 août 2019 Dr. Juvence F. Ramasy Manifestation d'opposition aux nouvelles lois électorales, ici le 22 avril 2018 dans une rue d'Antananarivo.© RIJASOLO / AFP Hôtel de ville d’Antananarivo incendié à la suite des manifestations de 1972 - https://mcmparis. wordpress.com/place-du-13-mai-72/ Jour de vote, élection présidentielle 1er tour 2018 – PEV Madagascar Séminaire des jeunes pour la consolidation de la paix, Université d’Antananarivo, 24-25 mai 2018 - PEV Madagascar Atelier d’échange en collaboration des acteurs du processus électoral, septembre 2019 - PEV Madagascar A propos de l’auteur Dr. Juvence F. Ramasy ([email protected]) est Maître de Conférences à l'Université de Toamasina, Madagascar. Il est titulaire d'une thèse en science politique de l'Université de Toulouse 1 Capitole («Etat implémentation de la démocratie dans les îles du sud-ouest de l'océan Indien : le cas de Madagascar et de l'île Maurice») Il a été invité dans diverses universités notamment l'Institut de Diplomatie de Beijing, l'Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Lyon, l'Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Toulouse, l'African Studies Center of Leiden, l'Université Libre de Bruxelles, l'Université d'Anvers, l'Université de Maurice, l'Institut de recherche stratégique de l'École militaire. Ses recherches portent sur les problématiques telles que l'Etat, les élites, l'armée, le processus électoral, la démocratisation en Afrique Subsaharienne et plus particulièrement dans la région indianocéanique.