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AC Vol 43 No 10 www.africa-confidential.com 17 May 2002 Vol 43 No 10 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL SOUTH AFRICA I I 3 SOUTH AFRICA Mbeki’s front line President Thabo Mbeki’s rapid rise Will the real Thabo Mbeki stand up? in the ANC followed years of Ahead of a hectic six months of hosting world leaders and trying to building a circle of friends and wring trade concessions from them, Mbeki changes course supporters in his exile years. Most of them now occupy key positions This year’s workload for President Thabo Mbeki is overwhelming. He and his colleagues from Africa’s in business and the media but most big nations must oversee the transformation of the Organisation of African Unity into the African Union of all in the party hierarchy. in July when it meets in Durban. In June, he will be in Canada, as chief salesman of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NePAD). In August, his government will host, in Johannesburg, the United SUDAN 4Nations World Summit on Sustainable Development (known as ‘Rio plus 10’, since it is ten years since the first such meeting, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). And in December, he will face the 50th annual The fire does not conference of his own African National Congress, whose old allies, the Congress of South African Trade Unions and the SA Communist Party, will grumble loudly about the government’s free-market economic cease policies. The US-brokered ceasefire in the Mbeki is clearing the decks. To the relief of his supporters and the surprise of his detractors, he has Nuba Mountains was meant to changed his stance on HIV/AIDS and Zimbabwe, which had seriously damaged his own and South bring relief to the Nuba people and push the government towards Africa’s standing in the world. The AIDS U-turn is definite: palliative drugs will be made available, at peace. So far, it has fed fighting in vast cost to the taxpayer, to those who clearly need them. Solidarity with President Robert Mugabe is the south without feeding the Nuba. replaced by pressure for a power-sharing government and constitutional reform. Mbeki is reclaiming some of his former reputation as the polymath in search of rational and radical solutions. MADAGASCAR 5 Mbeki is a private, elusive man. He is a passionate African nationalist, who detests the white racists who gaoled his father, Govan Mbeki, and drove him into long years of exile. Yet a decade ago, he drove Two to tango the negotiations with the leaders of the apartheid regime. Like a liberal academic – he could have been a good one – he praises the constitutional virtues and wants African governments to accept a neutral Two presidents, two parliaments, mechanism for measuring their adherence to good governance. His heart may be socialist but he wants two capitals – next two countries? That seems to be the aim of Didier to bring in private foreign investment to modernise his country. Ratsiraka who clings to the presidency despite a ruling by the I turn, U turn High Court that his rival Marc At the end of March, Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang declared with Mbeki’s backing that Ravalomanana won last December’s election. she would defy a court ruling which instructed the government to provide anti-retroviral drugs to HIV- positive pregnant women. The U-turn came less than a month later, when her Ministry announced that anti-retrovirals would be universally available through the public health system. Also in March, after a CÔTE D’IVOIRE 6 bitter confrontation with Britain and Australia over sanctions against Zimbabwe, Mbeki spoke of overtones of colonialism and racism in the Commonwealth. Now he lets it be known that he hopes for Interregnum a coalition between the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front – without Mugabe – and the The politicians are quieter, the opposition Movement for Democratic Change. banks are friendlier and the security Mbeki makes policy; his cabinet members are enforcers, loyalists, place-people, managers and a few men are restless. The peace technocrats. No significant reshuffle is expected after the death last month of one enforcer, Safety and depends partly on the opposition’s trust that President Laurent Security Minister Steve Tshwete. To replace him, Mbeki quickly appointed another close ally, Charles Gbagbo will deliver on his Nqakula, formerly Deputy Minister of Home Affairs. Nqakula’s wife, Nosiviwe Mapusa-Nqakula, promises, and partly on the who was the ANC’s Parliamentary Chief Whip, briefly took over her husband’s job. The President made stronger economy. But it still feels the changes without consulting the cabinet or ANC leadership. He probably wanted to avoid stirring party temporary. rivalries before its December conference, about the time when two ministers in poor health, Dullah Omar (Transport) and Zola Skweyiya (Social Development), are expected to retire. POINTERS 8 Tshwete had tried in vain to build up a strategy on crime and policing, and will be remembered as backing some paranoid schemes, an example of what Jeremy Cronin, an ANC member of parliament Congo-Kinshasa, who is also SACP Deputy Secretary General, calls the ‘Zanufication’ of the ANC. In April 2001, Tshwete Guinea, Somalia & said the police were investigating reports of a clandestine anti-Mbeki plot in the ANC. He later admitted no such plot existed and apologised publicly to the men he had accused: Cyril Ramaphosa, Mathews Sierra Leone Phosa and Tokyo Sexwale, formerly Mbeki’s rivals for the party leadership, now successful in business. Behind the partition; unstable; Tshwete’s apparently daft error snuffed out any chance of a leadership challenge by any of them in 2004. separate and sovereign; polling in During Zimbabwe’s election campaign Tshwete, as an official South African observer, defended peace. police attacks on Mugabe’s opponents. Nqakula, the new Security Minister and formerly Mbeki’s 17 May 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 10 parliamentary counsellor, is more subtle, and more involved in details Pressure from friendly Commonwealth governments, resisted of policy for one of the trickiest jobs in government. at the time, was a spur to the new policy. Advised by strategists Tshwete’s death at the end of April coincided with the policy such as the Pretoria-based Africa Institute’s Eddy Maloka, Mbeki’s turnaround on HIV/AIDS. The cabinet announced its plan to make government is subtly isolating Mugabe. The ANC plays the honest anti-retroviral drugs available from December 2002, for HIV- broker, urging ZANU and the MDC to form a government of positive pregnant women and rape survivors. Mbeki is distancing national unity and encouraging the MDC to accept cabinet posts. himself from his controversial International Aids Advisory Panel Jacob Zuma, South African Deputy President (and architect of and has told various American HIV ‘dissidents’ to stop using his peace in kwaZulu-Natal) initially led talks between the two name in their correspondence and fund raising. The ANC has told Zimbabwean sides but was seen as too close to ZANU. ANC Peter Mokaba, an MP who championed the dissidents, to keep General Secretary Kgalema Motlanthe now shuttles between quiet. them. Insiders say the policy change was pushed by Joel Netshitenze, Pretoria would like a ZANU-led coalition, without Mugabe, to head of the government’s Communication and Information Systems, rule Zimbabwe for two years. Mbeki regularly sees Emmerson and by Essop Pahad, Presidency Minister and Mbeki’s closest Mnangagwa, Speaker of Zimbabwe’s parliament, who claims advisor. They took their lead from the cabinet debate that began at Mugabe will step down before the end of his new term but does not an informal ‘lekgotla’ meeting in January. The ministers who know when. The MDC thinks the ANC too friendly to ZANU and criticised Mbeki’s stand included Trevor Manuel (Finance), recalls that Joshua Nkomo’s Zimbabwe African People’s Union Mangosuthu Buthelezi (Home Affairs) and Nkosazana Dlamini formed a ‘unity accord’ with ZANU and was swallowed up. Zuma (Foreign Affairs, formerly Health). Three other ministers – The big policy changes should help the government at Pahad, Tshabalala-Msimang and Ben Ngubane (Arts, Culture, December’s ANC conference. Mbeki sees beyond a second Science and Technology) – worked with officials on a cabinet presidential term; he wants his vision to prevail and solid support memorandum providing the basis for a new policy. to groom a successor. Internationally, his great project is NePAD, for which he needs all the friends he can find in the rich world, all Madiba’s rebuke the more so since the United States government is ideologically The turning point had come in February when ex-President Nelson hostile to aid and unhelpful in practice on liberalising trade. Yet Mandela publicly rebuked the government for its AIDS policy and when Canada’s Premier Jean Chrétien (host to the G8 meeting in encouraged community organisations to see the government as an June) visited South Africa in April, the journalists with him uncaring enemy. This view was orchestrated by the energetic appeared interested in nothing but AIDS and Zimbabwe, to Mbeki’s Treatment Action Campaign, which sued the government in the visible irritation. Constitutional Court over its reluctance to pay for or encourage The Zimbabwe conundrum has also entwined itself with NePAD. treatment programmes. The case has been heard and the Court has The partnership plan is based on principles of African sovereign reserved judgement; whatever the decision, the drugs will be ownership and of accountable and democratic governance, as the available. means to economic reform and progress. The problem is to respect A massive public awareness campaign will be launched with Mugabe’s African sovereignty while advocating democracy and AIDS organisations in late May.
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