www.africa-confidential.com 17 May 2002 Vol 43 No 10 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL I I 3 SOUTH AFRICA Mbeki’s front line President ’s rapid rise Will the real Thabo Mbeki stand up? in the ANC followed years of Ahead of a hectic six months of hosting world leaders and trying to building a circle of friends and wring trade concessions from them, Mbeki changes course supporters in his exile years. Most of them now occupy key positions This year’s workload for President Thabo Mbeki is overwhelming. He and his colleagues from Africa’s in business and the media but most big nations must oversee the transformation of the Organisation of African Unity into the African Union of all in the party hierarchy. in July when it meets in Durban. In June, he will be in Canada, as chief salesman of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NePAD). In August, his government will host, in Johannesburg, the United SUDAN 4Nations World Summit on Sustainable Development (known as ‘Rio plus 10’, since it is ten years since the first such meeting, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). And in December, he will face the 50th annual The fire does not conference of his own African National Congress, whose old allies, the Congress of South African Trade Unions and the SA Communist Party, will grumble loudly about the government’s free-market economic cease policies. The US-brokered ceasefire in the Mbeki is clearing the decks. To the relief of his supporters and the surprise of his detractors, he has Nuba Mountains was meant to changed his stance on HIV/AIDS and Zimbabwe, which had seriously damaged his own and South bring relief to the Nuba people and push the government towards Africa’s standing in the world. The AIDS U-turn is definite: palliative drugs will be made available, at peace. So far, it has fed fighting in vast cost to the taxpayer, to those who clearly need them. Solidarity with President Robert Mugabe is the south without feeding the Nuba. replaced by pressure for a power-sharing government and constitutional reform. Mbeki is reclaiming some of his former reputation as the polymath in search of rational and radical solutions. 5 Mbeki is a private, elusive man. He is a passionate African nationalist, who detests the white racists who gaoled his father, Govan Mbeki, and drove him into long years of exile. Yet a decade ago, he drove Two to tango the negotiations with the leaders of the regime. Like a liberal academic – he could have been a good one – he praises the constitutional virtues and wants African governments to accept a neutral Two presidents, two parliaments, mechanism for measuring their adherence to good governance. His heart may be socialist but he wants two capitals – next two countries? That seems to be the aim of Didier to bring in private foreign investment to modernise his country. Ratsiraka who clings to the presidency despite a ruling by the I turn, U turn High Court that his rival Marc At the end of March, Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang declared with Mbeki’s backing that Ravalomanana won last December’s election. she would defy a court ruling which instructed the government to provide anti-retroviral drugs to HIV- positive pregnant women. The U-turn came less than a month later, when her Ministry announced that anti-retrovirals would be universally available through the public health system. Also in March, after a CÔTE D’IVOIRE 6 bitter confrontation with Britain and Australia over sanctions against Zimbabwe, Mbeki spoke of overtones of colonialism and racism in the Commonwealth. Now he lets it be known that he hopes for Interregnum a coalition between the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front – without Mugabe – and the The politicians are quieter, the opposition Movement for Democratic Change. banks are friendlier and the security Mbeki makes policy; his cabinet members are enforcers, loyalists, place-people, managers and a few men are restless. The peace technocrats. No significant reshuffle is expected after the death last month of one enforcer, Safety and depends partly on the opposition’s trust that President Laurent Security Minister . To replace him, Mbeki quickly appointed another close ally, Charles Gbagbo will deliver on his Nqakula, formerly Deputy Minister of Home Affairs. Nqakula’s wife, Nosiviwe Mapusa-Nqakula, promises, and partly on the who was the ANC’s Parliamentary Chief Whip, briefly took over her husband’s job. The President made stronger economy. But it still feels the changes without consulting the cabinet or ANC leadership. He probably wanted to avoid stirring party temporary. rivalries before its December conference, about the time when two ministers in poor health, (Transport) and (Social Development), are expected to retire. POINTERS 8 Tshwete had tried in vain to build up a strategy on crime and policing, and will be remembered as backing some paranoid schemes, an example of what Jeremy Cronin, an ANC member of parliament Congo-Kinshasa, who is also SACP Deputy Secretary General, calls the ‘Zanufication’ of the ANC. In April 2001, Tshwete , Somalia & said the police were investigating reports of a clandestine anti-Mbeki plot in the ANC. He later admitted no such plot existed and apologised publicly to the men he had accused: , Mathews Sierra Leone Phosa and , formerly Mbeki’s rivals for the party leadership, now successful in business. Behind the partition; unstable; Tshwete’s apparently daft error snuffed out any chance of a leadership challenge by any of them in 2004. separate and sovereign; polling in During Zimbabwe’s election campaign Tshwete, as an official South African observer, defended peace. police attacks on Mugabe’s opponents. Nqakula, the new Security Minister and formerly Mbeki’s 17 May 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 10

parliamentary counsellor, is more subtle, and more involved in details Pressure from friendly Commonwealth governments, resisted of policy for one of the trickiest jobs in government. at the time, was a spur to the new policy. Advised by strategists Tshwete’s death at the end of April coincided with the policy such as the -based Africa Institute’s Eddy Maloka, Mbeki’s turnaround on HIV/AIDS. The cabinet announced its plan to make government is subtly isolating Mugabe. The ANC plays the honest anti-retroviral drugs available from December 2002, for HIV- broker, urging ZANU and the MDC to form a government of positive pregnant women and rape survivors. Mbeki is distancing national unity and encouraging the MDC to accept cabinet posts. himself from his controversial International Aids Advisory Panel , South African Deputy President (and architect of and has told various American HIV ‘dissidents’ to stop using his peace in kwaZulu-Natal) initially led talks between the two name in their correspondence and fund raising. The ANC has told Zimbabwean sides but was seen as too close to ZANU. ANC Peter Mokaba, an MP who championed the dissidents, to keep General Secretary now shuttles between quiet. them. Insiders say the policy change was pushed by Joel Netshitenze, Pretoria would like a ZANU-led coalition, without Mugabe, to head of the government’s Communication and Information Systems, rule Zimbabwe for two years. Mbeki regularly sees Emmerson and by , Presidency Minister and Mbeki’s closest Mnangagwa, Speaker of Zimbabwe’s parliament, who claims advisor. They took their lead from the cabinet debate that began at Mugabe will step down before the end of his new term but does not an informal ‘lekgotla’ meeting in January. The ministers who know when. The MDC thinks the ANC too friendly to ZANU and criticised Mbeki’s stand included (Finance), recalls that Joshua Nkomo’s Zimbabwe African People’s Union (Home Affairs) and Nkosazana Dlamini formed a ‘unity accord’ with ZANU and was swallowed up. Zuma (Foreign Affairs, formerly Health). Three other ministers – The big policy changes should help the government at Pahad, Tshabalala-Msimang and (Arts, Culture, December’s ANC conference. Mbeki sees beyond a second Science and Technology) – worked with officials on a cabinet presidential term; he wants his vision to prevail and solid support memorandum providing the basis for a new policy. to groom a successor. Internationally, his great project is NePAD, for which he needs all the friends he can find in the rich world, all Madiba’s rebuke the more so since the United States government is ideologically The turning point had come in February when ex-President Nelson hostile to aid and unhelpful in practice on liberalising trade. Yet Mandela publicly rebuked the government for its AIDS policy and when Canada’s Premier Jean Chrétien (host to the G8 meeting in encouraged community organisations to see the government as an June) visited South Africa in April, the journalists with him uncaring enemy. This view was orchestrated by the energetic appeared interested in nothing but AIDS and Zimbabwe, to Mbeki’s Treatment Action Campaign, which sued the government in the visible irritation. Constitutional Court over its reluctance to pay for or encourage The Zimbabwe conundrum has also entwined itself with NePAD. treatment programmes. The case has been heard and the Court has The partnership plan is based on principles of African sovereign reserved judgement; whatever the decision, the drugs will be ownership and of accountable and democratic governance, as the available. means to economic reform and progress. The problem is to respect A massive public awareness campaign will be launched with Mugabe’s African sovereignty while advocating democracy and AIDS organisations in late May. Supplies of cut-price drugs will be transparency. The European Union wants Southern African leaders negotiated with pharmaceutical companies. Official ‘sensitivity’ to distance themselves from Mugabe. The US Assistant Secretary of will be fostered towards those living with HIV/AIDS and a campaign State for Africa, Walter Kansteiner, links Washington’s backing for will be launched to combat discrimination against patients. Money NePAD with a tougher South African line on Zimbabwe. Mbeki could and expertise will be ploughed into the South African National Aids publicly disavow the Mugabe government if it declines to share Council, where Essop Pahad has joined government and private power; he will need to convince the G8 summit that NePAD’s representatives. A deputy health minister will soon be appointed to monitoring mechanism will hold African governments accountable. work solely on AIDS issues. Newspaper advertisements for the Since NePAD is also about fighting disease, the President’s former new strategy include the face of Mbeki himself. AIDS policy would have hampered him there, too. The policy shift on Zimbabwe is far more nuanced. South Yet NePAD’s prospects are not bright. Washington has made African policy during the presidential election campaign was some concessions on debt reduction and foreign aid but has moved the indecisive, ineffectual and heavily weighted by domestic concerns. other way on trade reform. Fresh subsidies worth US$50 billion are An inconvenient precedent would have been set if the labour-led about to be offered to American farmers, while the EU maintains its MDC had triumphed over ZANU-PF, a liberation movement; South food export subsidies. The effect on African farms is likely to be Africa’s main union federation (and the ANC’s ally), Cosatu, is disastrous. South Africa’s relations with Canada and Britain, NePAD’s pro-MDC. In , the union-dominated Movement for Multi- strongest Western backers, have been repaired after the Commonwealth party Democracy under Frederick Chiluba defeated the incumbent tensions. However, few strong policy commitments on Africa are Kenneth Kaunda in 1991 and turned into a national disaster. expected from the G8. Given the Mugabe regime’s close ties to some corrupt and In August at Rio plus 10, Mbeki’s new AIDS policy will free him greedy generals, Mbeki also feared that an MDC victory risked of some awkward questions. But the fashionable anti-globalisation sparking a military coup in Zimbabwe and damaging the region as protesters will have another stick to beat him with. That credo’s local far as Congo-Kinshasa. Mbeki’s team ended up legitimising the supporters have picked on NePAD as the target of their protests and the elections while disapproving of the ruling party’s violence. Now, ANC’s trades union allies call NePAD ‘GEAR for Africa’, identifying he is exerting pressure for a power-sharing government and it with the government’s pro-investment macro-economic policy. commitments on constitutional reform, refuting the critics NePAD needs a better grounding in civil society and more African (especially among Western financiers) who say the ANC is soft on grassroots support. The project is hugely ambitious. That it is Mugabe and political violence. hugely difficult is not surprising. 2 17 May 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 10

50, ex-Premier Tokyo Sexwale, 49, and ex- SOUTH AFRICA II Premier were all named by Tshwete as suspects in an anti-Mbeki plot: he later apologised to them when police found the suspicions groundless. Yet Ramaphosa and Sexwale, both millionaire businessmen, are the leading outside contenders, with Ramaphosa Mbeki’s front line easily the frontrunner: though he has no obvious route back into the race In a year of international negotiations and before 2004, he could be a strong player in 2009. party elections, Mbeki will need loyal friends The ultra-loyalists: President Thabo Mbeki’s rapid rise in the African National Congress ● Nkosazana Clarice Dlamini Zuma, Foreign Minister. Among after it was legalised in 1990 surprised many outsiders. Yet for years Mbeki’s closest cabinet allies, Zuma, 53, is key to Pretoria’s Africa inside the tent, Mbeki built a circle of friends and supporters who diplomacy: mediator in Congo-Kinshasa’s war, ally of Rwanda, backed him in party elections and now occupy key government staunch opponent of Sudan’s Islamist regime, working with Southern positions. African Development Community powers such as Angola and Zambia Contenders for the succession: (Mbeki leads on Zimbabwe and has close ties to Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo). She must also galvanise African support for the ● Jacob Zuma, Deputy President of South Africa and the ANC. New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NePAD). Her deputy Aziz Strong grassroots support will see Zuma, 60, re-elected ANC Deputy Pahad handles the Middle East, Asia and Latin America. Awash with President at December’s conference. He is front-runner to succeed international conferences and development initiatives, this year will be Mbeki and some are encouraging him to try. An instinctive and Zuma’s most testing. Once a presidential contender, Nkosazana Zuma cautious politician, he ignores such advice. After the late Steve would have probably won Mbeki’s support but she appears to have been Tshwete’s allegations last year of a plot against Mbeki, Zuma was edged out, not least by her ex-husband, Jacob Zuma. persuaded to state publicly his lack of interest in challenging him at the polls. His best chance would have been to take advantage of the ● Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, Health Minister since 1999. She was dissent in ANC provincial branches before the Conference, when the expected to be more independent of Mbeki than her predecessor, central leadership tries to impose its candidates. (Mbeki’s candidates Nkosazana Zuma. She first wobbled on HIV/AIDS, then became the in Mpumalanga and Limpopo have already been rejected). Taking on scourge of those demanding anti-retrovirals through the public health Mbeki in 2004 smacks of political suicide: Zuma will wait till 2009. service. Insiders believe she might have to take the blame for the He’s popular in his kwaZulu-Natal home but nationally, his skill in government’s disastrous HIV/AIDS policy and suffer political obscurity negotiating a power-sharing peace deal with Inkatha is not fully for a time. recognised. Ex-President rates him highly: Zuma ● Penuell Maduna, Justice Minister. One of Mbeki’s political street- risked his political life to help save his government in kwaZulu-Natal. fighters, he and Tshwete made a formidable duo pushing members of Like Mandela, Zuma is forthright on HIV/AIDS, quickly seeing the parliament and ministers into line. Maduna, 50, also enjoys sparring weakness and costs of the government’s position. Zuma’s intelligence with the opposition Democratic Alliance. A lawyer, he taught at New network is strong: he has old comrades in the ANC system and former York’s Columbia University. Since Tshwete’s death, he is even more National Party securocrats respect him. important to Mbeki: they’ve known each other well since Maduna went into exile in the 1980s. His slip-ups as Energy Minister are forgotten: ● Mosiuoa Patrick ‘Terror’ Lekota, Defence Minister and ANC his star will continue to rise. National Chairperson. Ousted by the ANC as Free State Premier, Lekota, 54, bounced back at the 1997 ANC National Conference and ● Jeff Thamasanqa Radebe, Public Enterprises Minister. From the was elected Chairperson amid a rank-and-file revolt against the ANC’s radical wing in kwaZulu-Natal, he’s almost an ideal-type Mbeki leadership’s favourite, Education Minister . Lekota politician: radical grassroots credentials, pragmatism, loyalty to the clawed his way back into public office – first as National Council of centre. Though on the South African Communist Party Central Provinces Chairperson (parliament’s second chamber), then as Defence Committee, Radebe, 49, is de facto Minister of Selling off State Assets Minister after 1999’s elections. He has repeatedly defended the (‘restructuring’ in ANC-speak). In charge of privatising major utilities government’s US$6 billion arms deal even as the damning details such as (electricity) and Transnet and Spoornet (railways), he’s emerge. Yet he remains popular and pragmatic. A former Black key to bringing in investment. He’ll need to step up the pressure: capital Consciousness militant and prisoner, he has the shortages are holding back growth. If he succeeds, he’s destined for a credibility and national base for the top job. Is he ruthless enough? top post. He can be relied on to side with Mbeki against SACP comrades now more critical of government. ● , Governor, Reserve Bank of South Africa. For most ● people, being an effective central bank governor would rule out Essop Pahad, Minister in the Presidency. Chief executive of the presidential ambition. Not for Mboweni: at 43, he’s young enough and enforcers and loyalists, Pahad, 63, is controversial kingpin of the Mbeki popular enough to bide his time. A development specialist who knows presidency. Their friendship goes back 40 years to Sussex University, Marxist and market economics, Mboweni was a key supporter of the Britain – Pahad did a history doctorate on Indian political movements ANC’s mixed economy strategy and proved a skilful Labour Minister in South Africa. He is the public and political head of Government balancing his former trades union comrades’ demands and those of Communication and Information Services (GCIS), with Joel Netshitenze business. His difficulty is how and when to rejoin the political its intellectual chief. Pahad is Mbeki’s closest political advisor, too: mainstream and vie for the succession. he’s no threat and takes the flak when sounding out opinion on new policies. He’s also a walking political intelligence agency who quickly ● The usual suspects: ANC ex-Secretary General Cyril Ramaphosa discovers who’s saying or planning what in the ANC, SACP and

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Congress of South African Trade Unions. For journalists, he symbolises (WUN, aka El Wahda or Unity State) where fighting has intensified. Mbeki’s centralism but is still a relatively convivial spin-doctor. The ceasefire allows oil to flow freely (AC Vol 43 No 8) through 250 kilometres of contested pipeline on the western edge of the Nuba The technocrats: Mountains, Abdel Aziz told Africa Confidential. Freezing the Nuba ● Trevor Andrew Manuel, Finance Minister since 1996. Head of front, he said, had enabled the government to move some 3,600 troops the ANC economic team, Manuel, 46, is a pillar of the government’s (the Ibrahim Shams el Din Brigade and the Liri Independent Brigade international credibility. Periodic rumours about his leaving or being 105) from the Mountains to WUN. US intelligence sources say they reshuffled cause market wobbles. He is one of the most powerful think the NIF has moved ‘no more than a couple of hundred’ troops out cabinet ministers, because of his experience and because he shares of the Mountains, ‘though they may have rotated some’. In any case, Mbeki’s economic views, winning support across the cabinet to rein fighting has certainly increased in WUN and adjacent areas of Bahr el in spending. He has pushed down inflation and the budget deficit, and Ghazal since the Nuba ceasefire. United Nations and aid agencies say gradually relaxed exchange controls and won confidence in the some 120,000 people have been displaced in the Wau-Gogrial area. government (that’s why officials get so irascible about the impact of The NIF is making ample use of the helicopter gunships which it Zimbabwe and HIV/AIDS policies). Manuel’s main job now is to help reluctantly promised US peace-broker John C. Danforth it would no job-creating growth: more elusive than macro-economic stability. longer use: ‘We encountered stiff resistance to our proposal to end Probably he could have any job he wants except the presidency; he is intentional military attacks against civilians, particularly bombing by sometimes tipped for Foreign Minister, if Zuma moved sideways. Sudanese Government aircraft and use of helicopter gunships’ says Senator Danforth in his final report, released on 13 May. NIF Peace ● , Trade and Industry Minister. Affable and cerebral, Advisor Ghazi Salah el Din el Atabani met Britain’s Special he’s the government’s other economic star. He led negotiations with Representative for Sudan, Alan Goulty, on 7 and 8 May, to try to the European Union, whose curmudgeonly stance on tariffs and persuade him to try to soften Danforth’s criticisms, we understand. market access infuriated Pretoria. Erwin, 54, has since been high- While in London, Ghazi, a stalwart of the NIF inner circle, also met US profile in World Trade Organisation negotiations. Pretoria has Africa’s Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Walter Kansteiner (with best briefed WTO negotiators. With Manuel, Erwin plays a key role whom Danforth has publicly disagreed). in SA’s economic diplomacy, seeking rich countries’ support for January’s reconciliation between John Garang and Riek Machar market access for African exports. Teny Dhurgon means renewed cooperation among their forces in the ● Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi, Public Services and Administration oil areas. Garang delayed full agreement on Danforth’s ceasefire Minister. A highly regarded frontliner, she’s had several tough proposals till he had received confirmation in Washington that the portfolios and now presides over civil service restructuring (reduction). USA considered oil installations to be legitimate military targets. She has taken on the powerful public sector unions on retrenchment SPLA commanders Peter Gadet and George Athor Deng have since and wage increases and reached settlements favourable to government been fighting back in WUN. In mid-April, near the garrison town of without a political explosion. Pariang, Athor had defeated one of the two government brigades shifted from the Nuba area and it had straggled back to bases in the Nuba region unopposed by the SPLA-Nuba, said Abdel Aziz. SUDAN In the Mountains, the SPLA fears the failure of the UN World Food Programme to deliver relief threatens to drive people into government- held areas, just as the government’s denial of relief (heavily criticised The fire does not cease by Danforth) did before the ceasefire. Food shortages are deterring thousands of displaced Nuba from camps in northern Sudan, who have The opposition complains that a US-brokered set off for home after ten years of government blockade. The failure ceasefire helps the Khartoum government of commodities to arrive is draining money and livestock out of SPLA Over halfway through the six-month ‘humanitarian ceasefire’ brokered areas, as Nuba from the Mountains have to buy from government by the United States for the Nuba Mountains, the National Islamic areas. As the hunger gap between harvests approaches, relief at the Front (aka National Congress) government has gained more than the absence of fighting turns to anxiety as food stocks run out, next year’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army (AC Vol 43 No 9). The agreement, seed fails to materialise and a meningitis epidemic kills hundreds of signed in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, on 19 January, provided for the children without delivery of vaccines or medicines by the UN’s monitoring of violations and delivery of assistance to civilians living Operation Lifeline Sudan. The habitual inefficiency of OLS (criticised in SPLA-controlled areas. Neither has happened. by Danforth) is only one reason for the neglect. According to SPLA The SPLA-Nuba Commander, Abdel Aziz Adam el Hilu officials, OLS agencies, including the WFP, say they will make no (successor to the late Yussef Kuwa Mekki) plans to convene the Nuba deliveries to rebel-held areas until the Joint Military Commission set parliament, the Regional Liberation Council, in a few weeks’ time, for up under the ceasefire agreement begins functioning. The JMC is a vote on whether to extend the ‘renewable’ ceasefire or return to war. supposed to deploy 52 monitors, to oversee the ceasefire and monitor In Nairobi on 23 April, Colonel John Garang de Mabior, Commander- the delivery of relief. They have not appeared and we hear there has in-Chief of both the SPLA and the opposition umbrella, the National been difficulty in finding international monitors, as well as funding Democratic Alliance, told Cdr. Abdel Aziz that the decision was up to problems. The first 15 arrived in the Mountains in mid-April without the Nuba branch of the SPLA. Some of the Bürgenstock agreement’s food or vehicles, and agreement on the site of their headquarters was effects in opposition-held areas would bear fruit only after at least six not reached until late April. For their first week in opposition-held more months of ceasefire, notably the attempt to farm lowland areas Kauda, the monitors relied on the SPLA for bed, board and, on one for the first time in over a decade. Yet the SPLA believes the pact has occasion, aircraft fuel. They monitored inward flights but there was turned out badly for the Sudanese resistance, both in the Nuba region no corresponding monitoring in government areas. itself and in the south, especially around oil-rich Western Upper Nile The JMC head, Norwegian Brigadier General Jan Erik

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EGYPT SAUDI to make peace. Khartoum rejected Danforth’s proposal that oil LIBYA ARABIA R revenue-sharing form part of an ‘enduring settlement’. The country’s Port e Sudan d de facto leader, First Vice-President Ali Osman Mohamed Taha N S

i l e e a insists that oil is ‘a national wealth owned by the Sudanese people’ and Atbara couldn’t be ‘an object of compromise’. Danforth also surprised many CHAD PIPELINE ERITREA KHARTOUM by his insistence on national unity. This strengthens Khartoum’s hand

B SUDAN l u and ignores southern demands for independence. Danforth is departing e

e N El Obeid l i i l N e and those he leaves behind in DC nurse few illusions about the NIF’s Nuba Mtns e t i h yearning for peace. W UNITY ETHIOPIA CENTRAL AFRICAN Concession areas REPUBLIC Bor Oil fields MADAGASCAR Juba Sennar DEM. REP. White Blue Nile Nile OF CONGO UG. KENYA Western Ed Southern Renk Kordofan Nuba Kordofan Damazine Two to tango

Mtns e l

Babanusa i PIPELINE NORTH-SOUTH Blue SUDAN BOUNDARY N Nile Muglad e Kadugli it h The army may step in to prevent the W Darfur ABU JEBRA Talodi Melut politicians breaking the country apart 2 ADAR- 4 YALE Arab HEGLIG 3 Bahr el Kodok Two presidents, two parliaments, two capitals, two economies – next, Abyei 1 MUNGA Upper UNITY Malakal Nile two countries? That seems to be the aim of the veteran Red Admiral, Rub Kona Bentiu Old , who clings to the presidency despite a ruling by the Lol W. Upper Fangak So ba Aweil l Nile THAR JATH t aza High Constitutional Court on 29 April that his rival, Marc h (Unity) JARAYAN Jonglei Canal Nasir Northern G (unfinished) Bahr el l e 5A Ravalomanana, had won 51 per cent of the vote on 16 December, to Ghazal r Waat h a Adok B ETHIOPIA ( B a W Jonglei Ratsiraka’s 36 per cent (AC Vol 43 Nos 2 & 7). Ratsiraka claims foul h h r Warab i e t Akobo Wau e l play, accusing the six (of nine) High Court judges who ruled against N J e i Western l b e e Bahr el Ghazal ) l him of political bias. El Buhayrat 300 kilometres Ratsiraka’s supporters, on his orders, are blockading Antananarivo, Rumbek W. Equatoria 150 miles the capital where Ravalomanana holds sway, legitimised by the Wilhelmsen, told us the delays were teething problems, unavoidable Constitutional Court. He was the hugely popular Mayor of the city, given the logistical problems in the Mountains. One of the SPLA’s where fuel and foodstuffs are now running low and, health workers three representatives on the JMC, Walid Hamed, accused Khartoum say, children are malnourished. Outside the capital, his supporters are of ‘putting every obstacle’ in the way of the Commission. He said the hesitant. Ratsiraka has set up a rival capital at the port city of monitors’ vehicles had been held up in Port Sudan for over a month, Toamasina and his people talk of a separate state. On the main supply despite the government’s promise that it would do all in its power to road from Toamasina to Tana, there is a makeshift border crossing at facilitate the JMC’s work. One US official said the delays were merely Brickaville where officials elicit tariffs or bribes (depending on your logistical but sources close to the JMC made it clear that the monitors, viewpoint) from traders. mostly military or ex-military of various Western nationalities, are Over 60 people have been killed in clashes between the rival undergoing a steep learning curve on Sudanese reality. A loan of factions. Senior officers are urgently debating whether the military vehicles by the UN triggered a row when monitors took them near the should force the politicians to hold a referendum between the two minefields. Now helicopters are due to arrive – to the NIF’s fury. The presidents. The army is not seen as highly politicised – Madagascar failure to get operational has prevented the JMC from monitoring has never had a military coup – but is divided. Most senior officers are government activities in the Nuba Mountains: Western delays have said to favour Ravalomanana and many attended his official again allowed Khartoum precious time and space to manoeuvre. inauguration. The Gendarmerie leans towards Ratsiraka but In southern Sudan, a second ‘confidence-building measure’ Ravalomanana will have won support by appointing a Gendarmerie supposed to end attacks on civilians was signed by Khartoum on 15 general, Jules Mamizara, to Defence, a ministry usually headed by an March. Proposed by Danforth, this was forced on the NIF by army general. Ratsiraka, meanwhile, named the Armed Forces Chief international outrage over the gunship slaughter of dozens of of Staff, General Ismaël Mounibou, as his defence minister, confirming southerners waiting for a WFP food drop in the village of Bieh. the split in the army. In WUN, attacks on civilians have continued as Khartoum struggles The army threatened to intervene in 1991 when Ratsiraka, who to lift the opposition threat to oil operations. Gadet claims to have had been President for 16 years, refused to quit after months of strikes repulsed three attempts to send in government reinforcements and to and ville morte (ghost town) protests. The generals threatened to step have seized large quantities of arms and oil equipment, before capturing in if the politicians could not agree and within days, a face-saving the small but strategic government garrison at Kuoc, on 14 April. The withdrawal by Ratsiraka was arranged. Other solutions look less SPLA Governor of Western Upper Nile, Simon Maguec Gai, said the promising. The African Union (ex-Organisation of African Unity) is government had sent helicopters against three nearby villages – brokering talks but tends to favour incumbent presidents. Ratsiraka Rubkuac, Rubnor and Lumbor – killing at least five civilians and has had good relations with and is well regarded among wounding several young girls. The JMC could not verify the attacks Francophone nations. Ratsiraka is Catholic, Ravalomanana is supported and, since the government has banned UN relief to the area, there were by the Christian Council of Malgache Churches, which is Protestant. no independent witnesses. In April’s mediation, brokered by ’s President Abdoulaye Several Western governments claim that the NIF’s agreement to Wade, the rivals agreed on a recount of votes, to be reviewed by the Danforth’s confidence-building measures indicates a new willingness High Constitutional Court, and a referendum in six months if neither 5 17 May 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 10

man emerged the clear victor. Ratsiraka has broken the agreement, Merina. Ratsiraka’s supporters are stirring up anti-Merina feeling and disputing the composition of the Court which found against him. The there have been attacks on Merina communities in coastal towns. Supreme Court had ruled last month that Ratsiraka’s appointments to Arema has dominated the provincial administrations since the High Court, made just before the election, were illegal and the opposition disarray handed it a landslide in the December 2000 local High Court was reconstituted. elections. At December’s presidential election, Ravalomanana won Ratsiraka’s increasingly strident partisans have blown up six wide popular support in all provinces, heading the list in most of them. bridges, the latest on the Antananarivo-Toamasina road. The governors The 150-seat National Assembly was elected in 1998, with 63 Arema of the four coastal provinces (Toamasina, Antsiranana, Mahajanga MPs; several independents then rallied to Ratsiraka. When the rivals and Toliara) are all members of Ratsiraka’s Association pour la organised their competing sessions on 6 May, some 73 MPs turned up Renaissance de Madagascar (Arema). They have declared for Ratsiraka in Mahajanga, 63 for Ravalomanana in Antananarivo. independence from Antananarivo and announced a Confederation of Ravalomanana’s people say they would have mustered 12 more if the Independent States of Madagascar. The other two provincial governors roads, railway and airports had been open. The 63 in Antananarivo back Ravalomanana who, despite pleas to delay from African and included a dozen from Arema, nearly all of them Merina. Western diplomats, held an inauguration ceremony on 6 May and set The economy is at a standstill, with no tourists and many hotels up what he called a ‘Government of National Reconciliation’. On the closed. Flooding after a cyclone on 14 May cut off Toamasina. Textile same day, Ratsiraka held a meeting of his own members of parliament exports, the other main foreign-currency earner, have stopped. Some in Mahajanga as a show of strength. 30 factories have closed and 65,000 workers have been laid off, with no alternative jobs. Foreign investors will not be returning soon. No big tent for ’s attempts at reconciliation have been stymied. His original nominee as prime minister, the Gendarmerie chief, Gen. CÔTE D’IVOIRE Sylvain Rabotoarison, from the south-east coastal area, wanted to retain some of Ratsiraka’s ministers, notably the Deputy Premier (and Arema Secretary General) Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, a moderate who Interregnum has spoken out against partition and might bring in other former Politicians are quieter, the banks are Ratsiraka supporters. Hardline Ravalomanana supporters opposed friendlier and the security men are restless this conciliatory gesture and their leader , a lawyer, was re-appointed Prime Minister. He announced a 30-member government The political peace depends, shakily, on the opposition’s trust that of Ravalomanana’s supporters on 14 May, dashing hopes of ouverture. President Laurent Gbagbo will deliver on his promises. The turning Sylla was Foreign Minister under democracy’s incompetent first point came in February, with the Yamoussoukro Agreement between President, , from 1992 to 1996 and Ravalomanana named four main political leaders; conciliatory noises were made but nothing him Premier when he declared himself President on 22 February. He definite was decided on the trickiest issues, notably the nationality of is half French, from Ratsiraka’s home region of Toamasina. His opposition leader Alassane Dramane Ouattara. Since then Gbagbo, powerful opponents include Norbert Ratsirahonana, a former Premier sometimes regarded as too devious for his own good, has been who served as acting head of state when Zafy was driven out in 1996, showing a surer political touch. and is now one of Ravalomanana’s political strategists; and fellow The key to peace is the economy. With discreet help from France, veteran Manandafy Rakotonirina. Both feel Sylla has failed to Gbagbo persuaded Western governments to look more kindly on his deliver much support either from France or from Toamasina. government and won the blessing of the International Monetary Fund. No foreign diplomats were present at Ravalomanana’s ‘auto- Three years ago, the Fund froze lending, in response to corruption and proclamation’ in February. Western and other ambassadors sent financial mismanagement by President Henri Konan Bédié’s deputies to the 6 May ceremony as a limp gesture of support. No government. At the end of March, it approved a three-year Poverty country has formally recognised his election; Western embassies are Reduction and Growth Facility worth US$365 million. A $73 mn. first waiting for a lead from the African Union. A second meeting between tranche was released immediately, swiftly followed on 10 April by a the contenders, planned for on 13 and 14 May, was postponed debt rescheduling agreement with the Paris Club of government when Ravalomanana insisted he must attend as head of state. His creditors, who are owed some 40 per cent of the country’s total debt of delegation, led by Rakotonirina, was received by Wade on 12 May but $10.5 billion. failed to secure his support for African Union recognition of The agreement reschedules $1.8 bn. of debt on ‘Lyon’ terms, Ravalomanana’s legitimacy. Wade again called for a second summit reducing the net present value of the debt by 80 per cent. That means to bring national reconciliation. the immediate cancellation of about $911 mn. and will reduce debt Ravalomanana has sent an envoy to Tripoli to seek help from service payments due between now and the end of 2004 from $2.3 bn. Libya’s Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi, who has recently mediated in to $750 mn. Creditors indicated they would top up the rate of conflicts in Chad and the Central African Republic. The European cancellation to 90 per cent – the ‘Cologne’ terms – as soon as the Parliament was due to hold an emergency debate on 16 May. country qualified for overall debt relief under the IMF and World Madagascar’s split accentuates the divisions between the Merina Bank’s Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative, as is expected in people of the Central Plateau, Ravalomanana’s stronghold, and the September 2003. Senior IMF and people have visited coastal groups which resent the Merina conquest in the 19th century. Abidjan. Callisto Madavo, the Bank’s Vice-President for Africa, Three Ratsiraka ministers who quit the outgoing government early on spent five days there in February and IMF Managing Director Horst and rallied to Ravalomanana (the former Defence Minister, Gen. Köhler dropped in at the end of April as part of an African tour. Côte Marcel Ranjeva, now Ravalomanana’s Foreign Minister; ex-Foreign d’Ivoire’s share in the New Partnership for Africa’s Development Minister Lila Ratsifandrihamanana; ex-Posts and (NePAD) conference circuit is a high-level meeting in Yamoussoukro Telecommunications Minister Ny Hasina Andriamanjato) are on 17 May. 6 17 May 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 10

Immediately after the Paris Club deal, the government opened whose bodies were found in Abidjan’s Yopougon district after the talks with its London Club commercial creditors, which should presidential election. Last year, eight gendarmes were unconvincingly continue in June. The World Bank resumed lending at the end of tried, and acquitted, at Gendarmerie headquarters: witnesses refused January and on 4 April, the African Development Bank announced its to testify. Last month, Gbagbo announced that a civil tribunal would full cooperation. Prudently, the ADB is arranging an emergency reopen the investigation, as recommended by the Reconciliation headquarters in Tunis in case of further insecurity in Abidjan – while Forum last December (AC Vol 42 No 20). That may not close the the International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) is moving to Abidjan affair. Many members of Gbagbo’s Front Populaire Ivoirien (FPI) after its landlord raised the rent for its central London offices, which claim that Ouattara’s Rassemblement des Républicains (RDR) it sub-let from the International Coffee Organisation (ICO). fabricated the evidence of the massacre; Finance Minister Mamadou Côte d’Ivoire offered free office space in a vast building constructed Koulibaly said as much at the Forum. for the Caisse de Stabilisation, the former state commodity marketing There is also trouble with the trial of 28 soldiers and civilians body. Consumer countries (and many London staff members) would accused of orchestrating the attempted coup in January 2001. have preferred cheaper offices in outer London but the producers Proceedings, due to start on 27 March, were postponed at the last backed Abidjan and the views of the country which produces 40 per minute to 13 May. The official explanation was that the jury had not cent of the world’s cocoa won the day. The ICCO is looking for an been properly constituted but the delay may have been encouraged by Executive Director to replace veteran Ivorian Edouard Kouame, who the circulation in army barracks of tracts opposing the trial. Military stepped down in January after 15 years. Guy Alain Gauze, sources said these called for an uprising if the trial went ahead and Commodities Minister for many years, had looked a likely successor argued that soldiers should not be convicted if gendarmes were but was opposed by its Western consumer members. They dropped protected over the Yopougon massacre. their opposition to moving to Abidjan in exchange for Gbagbo’s The RDR has been calm since it boycotted the violent legislative government dropping Gauze. There is now no obvious candidate. elections of December 2000. It is concentrating on the local After three years of recession, domestic investment is recovering, council elections, set for 7 July, in which it is the only party putting flight capital is returning and rural incomes are said to be rising. The up candidate lists in all 58 départements. Bédié’s Parti government and the IMF hope for growth in gross domestic product Démocratique de la Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI) has 46 lists and the FPI, of 3 per cent in 2002 and 4.5 per cent in 2003 – given both a higher 43. The RDR did well in March 2001 at municipal elections and cocoa price and political stability. another good showing may encourage its militants, who plan a Threats which the IMF has identified are public-sector wage demonstration to demand nationality papers for Ouattara two days demands and ‘difficulties with several key structural reforms’. The after polling. The Union pour la Démocratie et la Paix en Côte central reform affects cocoa, which brings in over a third of export d’Ivoire (UDPCI), whose ‘mentor’ is the former dictator, General revenue. Government officials talk of bringing back the ‘stabilisation’ Robert Gueï, plans to elect its first president at a congress on 19- system, based on forward sales and fixed farm prices, that existed 20 May. Nobody will be surprised if Gueï wins. before the market was liberalised in 1999; the World Bank still prefers Once the monolithic single party but now an ineffectual liberalisation. Large exporters were told forward sales would start by opposition force, the PDCI voted at its congress on 8 April to keep 15 April but they have not begun. Bédié on as party President. He won 82.5 per cent of votes, Secretary General Laurent Dona Fologo won 12 per cent and Counting the beans Lamine Fadika, a minister under Bédié and would-be PDCI Extra uncertainty arises between the government, the farmers’ reformer, took 5.3 per cent. Now President of the advisory Conseil representatives associated with some small export companies and a Economique et Social, Dona Fologo was replaced as Secretary heavily indebted state bank, the Caisse Autonome d’Amortissement. General by the veteran Alphonse Djédjé Mady. Fologo’s fidelity Cocoa officials say the CAA, supported by government ministers, has to the legacy of Côte d’Ivoire’s founding father, Félix Houphouët- been trying to get control of cocoa levy funds worth over 80 bn. CFA Boigny, has brought him into conflict with Bédié. Houphouët- francs ($110 mn.) that have been lodged for safety with the West Boigny’s days of the one-party state, commodity booms and open African regional central bank, the Banque Centrale des Etats d’Afrique doors to other African migrants now seem long ago. With both de l’Ouest (BCEAO). Ivorian and European politics giving ground to xenophobes, and Through the CAA, farmers’ leaders could get their hands on the terms of trade more contested, political tempers may rise again. money, a large chunk of which has been allocated for a rural development fund but has not yet benefited ordinary farmers. Gbagbo Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com is unwilling to offend the farmers’ leaders, many of them from the Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at south-eastern and central Akan peoples (notably the Agni and Attié) 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. who are the President’s only significant supporters outside Abidjan Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. and the south-west. Administration: Clare Tauben. The government’s grip on security is shaky. In January, it ended a police strike by secretly promising a further pay increase by the end Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: of April but did not deliver (AC Vol 43 No 3). The police say they Institutions: Africa £312 – UK/Europe £347 – USA $874 – ROW £452 won’t strike again but are furious with the Interior Minister, Emile Corporates: Africa 404 – UK/Europe £425 – USA $985 – ROW £531 Boga Doudou, who is also accused of falsifying police school Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £87 or USA $125 examination results earlier this year, to help candidates from his south- All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. 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said his troops would stay in Congo till border parliamentary elections will go ahead this year. Pointers security was safeguarded by a government The opposition had complained that Egal’s including the RCD-Goma. In South Kivu, RCD- schedule favoured his United People’s Democratic Goma and Rwandan troops face an uprising by Party; the polls, with at least seven parties CONGO-KINSHASA their old allies, the Banyamulenge (Congolese registered, are now likely to be fairer. Politicians Tutsi) from the Itombwé Highlands, under an know that a smooth presidential transition and RCD defector, Commandant Patrick Musunzu. effective and peaceful elections will help Behind the partition Congo and Rwanda accuse each other of Somaliland’s claim to international recognition. Since 52 days of inter-Congolese talks at Sun City deploying troops in areas where they’re not That contrasts with Somalia itself, with a ended last month, a new partition is emerging. supposed to be. Rwanda rejects a UN proposal for reconciliation conference unenthusiastically Some 70 per cent of the territory is covered by the buffer zones to keep out Hutu militiamen and ex- planned in Nairobi under the auspices of the Inter- ‘framework agreement’ between President Joseph Interahamwé loyal to the former Rwandan regime. Governmental Authority on Development. The Kabila’s government and most of its opponents: General Kagame reckons a buffer zone is no cure organisers, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya, are Jean-Pierre Bemba’s Mouvement de Libération for the real problem: that Kinshasa supports the themselves at odds, while would-be participants du Congo, Mbusa Nyamwisi’s pro-Ugandan militias and has incorporated many into its Forces struggle to establish their credentials. After the Rassemblement Congolais pour la Démocratie- Armées Congolaises. failure of an Ethiopian mediation attempt, Colonel Mouvement de Libération, Roger Lumbala’s RCD Abdullahi Yusuf captured Bosasso port and forced National, plus most civil society and unarmed GUINEA Col. Jama Ali Jama, his rival for the Puntland opposition delegates. presidency, to flee to Djibouti last week (AC Vol Despite the exclusion of Rwanda’s ally, 43 No 1). Another member of the Ethiopian- Adolphe Onusumba’s RCD-Goma, the Unstable backed Somali Restoration and Reconciliation agreement has reopened the Congo River and Explosions in Conakry’s main army camp on 5 Council, Col. Mohamed Nur ‘Shatigudud’ of some eastern airports. Delegates are in Matadi to May were not because of a coup but they show the Rahenweyne Resistance Army, has announced write a constitution by late May and form a how the army’s dominant role is becoming a a South Western Regional Administration, transitional government by late June. Ambiguities liability. Officials said women lighting cooking including areas where the RRA has no control or abound. Article 3 stipulates that Kabila, as fires nearby had set light to the ammunition store presence. He will turn up at Nairobi claiming President, is Supreme Commander of the Armed in the Alpha Yaya Diallo army camp and hundreds parity with the Presidents of Puntland and of Forces (subject to Bemba’s agreement, as Premier); of people fled the area clutching mattresses, Mogadishu’s Transitional National Government. Article 5 gives the command to an undefined cooking pots and clothing. No one was killed but Somaliland won’t be there. It has said it would conseil supérieur de la défense chaired by Kabila. the blasts revived memories of March 2001, when attend only as a recognised, independent state. The in Kabila’s camp, in the Mouvement the ammunition store exploded killing dozens of Egal consistently said Somaliland could discuss du 17 Mai, accuse Bemba of trying to hand power people and injuring hundreds more. future political arrangements if and when the rest to followers of the late President Mobutu Sese The blast coincides with the start of training of Somalia produced a government. His successors Seko. M17 spokesman Célestin Lwanghy by the United States military to help the army may be more intransigent. criticises the ‘imbalance between the prerogatives improve border security. President Lansana of the head of state and the prime minister’ and the Conté has used Guinea’s regional position – SIERRA LEONE ‘lack of parliamentary control over the prime adjacent to the conflicts in Sierra Leone and minister’. Belgium, France and Britain say the Liberia – to run a more energetic foreign policy. partial agreement is ‘progress’. United Nations A diabetic who has been in poor health for many Polling in peace officials advise Kabila and Bemba not to rush to years, Conté made a rare foreign trip, to Morocco The 14 May presidential and parliamentary form a government. for talks with his fellow Mano River Union leaders elections were lauded as the most peaceful in four MLC Secretary General Olivier Kamitatu told (AC Vol 43 No 9). But relations between Conté decades but political problems loom. Africa Confidential a transitional government, and Liberian President Charles Taylor are almost Early results showed President Ahmad Tejan even without the RCD-Goma, would help the on a war footing. Curiously, Conté has escaped Kabbah running well ahead of his nearest rival, international community to get foreign troops any international censure for his military support Ernest Koroma of the All People’s Congress. withdrawn. But the RCD-Goma, its resolve for the rebel Liberians United for Reconciliation Turnout was high, although the opposition stiffened by Rwandan backing, resents the deal, and Democracy (LURD) which last week took complained of advantages enjoyed by Kabbah’s though it was offered a vice-premiership and the Taylor’s old redoubt of Gbarnga and this week is Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) in its eastern Defence Ministry. Attempts at persuasion by UN edging much closer to the Liberian capital. strongholds of Kono and Kailahun, where local officials and Belgian Foreign Minister Louis chiefs pledged their allegiance. Michel have failed, as did talks in Luanda this SOMALIA The Revolutionary United Front is unhappy month between government and rebels. about a Kabbah landslide, and not all the former Aligned with the RCD-Goma is the still popular, rebels support RUF presidential candidate Pallo evasive, Etienne Tshisekedi, undisputed leader Separate & sovereign Bangura, who stood in place of the gaoled RUF of Kasaï and of the Union pour la Démocratie et The unrecognised Republic of Somaliland proved leader Foday Sankoh. Rejected by voters and le Progrès Social. He says the accord is a ‘private’ its durability on 3 May, with the peaceful badly divided, the RUF could still resume its war deal, made outside the formal conference, and succession to President Mohamed Ibrahim Egal. if its supporters aren’t brought into the mainstream. rejects any agreement that doesn’t reinstate him as The man who had aspired to rule a reunited Somalia Ex-head of the Campaign for Good Governance prime minister. He now leads the Alliance pour la died in a South African hospital of liver Zainab Bangura promises her anti-graft Sauvegarde du Dialogue Intercongolais, which complications. Within hours, Vice-President Movement for Progress Party will monitor the groups the UDPS, RCD-Goma, and François Dahir Riyale Kahin had been sworn in as government closely. Tough talking from the Lumumba’s Mouvement National Congolais in a President. donors is led by Britain, whose Development coalition to oppose the deal. In February, Egal had wrung a year’s extension Secretary Clare Short flew to Freetown before Sun City gives the unarmed opposition merely of his presidency out of parliament, so Kahin’s the polls to warn that corruption would not be the Senate presidency, while civil society gets term lasts till next February’s election. He’s tolerated. Britain, which spent £100 million only the chairs of three commissions: elections; Gadabursi and unlikely to stand again since the (US$155 mn.) last year in Sierra Leone, wants to truth and reconciliation; and anti-corruption. largest clan, the Isaaq, claim the presidency. reduce its military role, though substantial On 8 May Rwandan President Paul Kagame Kahin has already said that municipal and development aid will continue. 8