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Titelblatt Der Dissertation TitelblattderDissertation FachbereichSozialwissenschaften “Brokenpolicies:ReͲescalationofviolenceintheSouthOssetia conflict1989–2008. MechanismsofWesterninfluenceonGeorgianstateleaderships priortoescalationsintheGeorgianͲOssetianconflictin2002,2004 and2008.” Dissertation zurErlangungderDoktorwürde durchden PromotionsausschussDr.rer.pol. derUniversitätBremen vorgelegtvon LaraSigwart Tbilisi,Georgien 8.Oktober2012 Erstgutachter:Prof.Dr.KlausSchlichte,InstitutfürInterkulturelleund InternationaleStudien,UniversitätBremen Zweitgutachter:Prof.MarkR.Beissinger,DepartmentofPolitics,Princeton University 1 TableofContents–Overview 1. Introduction 11 2. Analyticalframework 20 3. Empiricalanalysis 63 4. Discussionoffindings 142 5. Conclusion 183 6. Bibliography 192 7. Annexes 216 8. Statementonauthorship 287 TableofContents–Detailed i. Acknowledgments 5 ii. Listofabbreviations 8 iii. Listofgraphiccontents 9 iv. MapofGeorgia 10 1. Introduction 11 2. Analyticalframework 24 2.1.Literaturereview 24 ExistingliteratureontheSouthOssetiaconflictandpoliticsin 25 Georgia 1)Argument1:Democratizationandelectionsleadingto violence–“Playingtheethniccard” 27 2)Argument2:Illiciteconomiesleadingtoviolence–“Ethnic warfareissimplyacoverstoryforcriminalviolenceand 30 predation” CritiqueofArgument1and2:Predatorypoliciesoflocalstate elitesinGeorgia 32 3)Argument3:Emotionsleadingtoviolence– “Whether[the emotion]producesviolenceornotdependsinlargepartonthe intensityoftheemotion” 35 CritiqueofArgument3:Russia’sclaimofregionaldominance 37 4)Argument4:Involvementofexternalactorsleadingto violence–“TheWestdidnotdoenough” 39 CritiqueofArgument4:PoliciesofWesternnegligence 41 Conclusionofthecritiqueofexistingarguments 42 2.2.Theargument 44 2.3.Analyticalframework 45 a) Keyaspectsoftheargumentandworkinghypotheses 46 ViolenceintheSouthOssetiaconflict 46 TheGeorgianstateanditsleaderships 48 ExternalinfluenceintheSouthOssetiacontext 51 2 b) Analyticalframeworkandmethods 55 Changeinlocalbehavior:Tracingshifts 55 Causality:Framingthecausallink 57 Narrativeanalysis:Locatingandascribingmeaningtocausal links 59 Socialmechanisms:Aggregatingrecurringcausallinks 63 Modelofanalysis 66 3. Empiricalanalysis 68 3.1.Analysisanduseoftheeventdataset 68 3.2.Backgroundofthestudy:Trajectoryofpoliticsandviolenceinthe SouthOssetiaconflict1989Ͳ2008 74 Episode1:1989to1994– IndependenceofGeorgia,startof conflictinSouthOssetia,andfirstGeorgianͲOssetianwar 76 Episode2:1994Ͳ2002–ShevardnadzeͲChibirovagreement, Kokoitytakespower,andreͲescalationin2002 81 Episode3:2002Ͳ2006–OustingofShevardnadze,closureof Ergneti,LjubljanaDocument,Sanakoevadministration 88 Episode4:2006Ͳ2008–Kosovorecognition,NATOsummitin 93 Bucharest,Augustwarandaftermathofthewar 3.3.Analysisofsequencesofpolicies 96 Interviewsandsequencesofpolicies 97 Sequence1–2002:FailureoftheBadenprocess, Shevardnadze'santiͲcorruptionagendaandantiͲcrime operations 103 Sequence2–2004:Regimechange,Ergneticlosureandshelling ofTskhinvali 114 Sequence3–2008:Westernsupportforroadmaps,Sanakoev administrationandAugustwar 125 Westernpoliciesafter2008 138 3.4.Empiricalfindingsandmodel 140 4. Discussionoffindings 150 4.1.Theoreticalscopeofthefindings 150 a) Beforechangeoflocalbehavior:The(reͲ)formationand implementationoftheWesternagenda 156 b) Afterchangeoflocalbehavior:Beforeturningpointsto escalation 159 c) Afterescalations 160 4.2.Empiricalscopeofthefindings 163 SriLanka 165 Kashmir 174 MechanismsofviolenceinSouthOssetia,SriLankaandKashmir 181 Divergences 185 5. Conclusion 192 6. Bibliography 201 3 7. Annexes 225 ANNEX1:Chronologyofpoliticalandviolenceevents1989Ͳ 2007 225 ANNEX2:CasualtiesintheGeorgianͲOssetianconflictzone basedonreportsoftheOSCEMissiontoGeorgia1994–2006 290 ANNEX3:Politicalevents1989–2008 293 ANNEX4:Listofinterviews 296 8. Statementonauthorship 298 4 i.Acknowledgments Over the course of the dissertation project I received various forms of support, advice and encouragement. I would like to first of all thank my twoadvisers,KlausSchlichteandMarkBeissinger,whoputgreatamounts of time and effort into bringing this dissertation into being. Their encouragement, valuable insights, trust in my abilities and consistent supportovertheyearsmadethisprojecthappen. IreceivedgenerousfundingoveraperiodofthreeyearsfromtheHansͲ Boeckler Foundation in Germany which was my first choice in my applicationforfundingandwhichmadeextensivefieldresearchpossible, includingtwomonthsinPragueandeightmonthsinGeorgiaaswellasa sevenͲmonth visiting scholarship with Mark Beissinger at the Princeton University. At HansͲBockler Foundation I would like to thank Iris Henkel andInsaBreyer.IalsoreceivedfinancialsupportthroughtheMarieͲCurie scholarship program of the European Commission and the Ministry of Education and Science of Georgia. Without these funds, the dissertation would not have been realized in its empirical scope and could not have profitedfrominputofdifferentscholarlycontexts.Thiswasaninvaluable gainfortheproject. ThisresearchwasgreatlysupportedbyEmmaPratt,RachelNaylor,Jeremy Johnson, Rebecca Kraut and Camrin Christensen who proofread thefinal draft,themanypeoplewhowerereadytoreadanddiscussearlyversions informsofconferencepaperssuchasLauraDaniels,KatharinaHoffmann, Arwa Abdelmoula, Augustas Balelis, Andrea Weiss, Eli Feiman, Megan Dean, Barbara Christophe, Ulla Pape, Lili Di Puppo, and of course my interview partners who gave critical insight and put time and effort into explainingandmakingmeunderstandtheirpointsofview. MostofallIwouldliketothankLikaSanikidze,LelaChakhaia,EleneNodia and Gia Gotua who greatly enabled the field research through personal 5 support.Thesearealsothefourpeoplewhoweremyveryfirstfriendsin Georgia when I came in 2003, who involved me in discussions, shared knowledgeinanefforttomakemeasanoutsiderunderstandthecomplex situationinGeorgiaandwhoalwaysputthetrustinmethatIwouldcome to fair conclusions, even across the occasional political differences between us or even among themselves. I am certainly very grateful for this. I would like to thank the various institutions and their coͲworkers who supportedmyresearchotherthanthroughfinancialmeans.AttheHansͲ Boeckler Foundation, Iris Henkel worked administrative miracles in the course of more than three years of my fellowship; at the University of Bremen, Carmen Ohlsen was of constant and immediate support to organizethedissertationbetweenTbilisiandBremen;attheUniversityof Groningen,JoostHerman supported my preͲdoctoral research fellowship fromJanuarytoJuly2008;atthearchiveoftheOSCEofficeinPrague,Alice Nemcova and the intern Ulrike Wiese supported my archival research in JanuaryandFebruary2009;attheTbilisiStateUniversity,NinoChikovani hosted my first research stay in 2009; at the Ilia State University, Ghia Nodia hosted my second research stay which took place also with great help of Maia Nikolaishviliin 2010. Institutionssuch as theISETlibraryof the Tbilisi State University, the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy andDevelopment(CIPDD)andtheIDPWomenAssociation‘Consent’were ofinvaluablestructuralsupportinconductingtheresearch.Iwouldliketo thankEleneKhoshtaria,theformerFirstDeputyStateMinisterofEuropean and EuroͲAtlantic Integration, who, as my previous employer, showed greatunderstandingfortheloadoffinishingadissertationnexttoafullͲ timejob. Last but not least I thank my father, Herbert Sigwart, who has always supportedmyeducation,inspiritandfinancially,ingoodandinbadtimes, who in my teenage years awakened my interest in politics, formed my 6 liberalstanceandcriticaleyeforissuesofsocialjustice,andwastheone whosuggestedtometostudypoliticalscienceͲ“..becauseyoualways screamattheTVwhentheyshowthenews..” LaraSigwart,Tbilisi,October2012 7 ii.ListofAbbreviations AR–ActivityReport(oftheOSCEMissiontoGeorgia) CSCE–ConferenceforSecurityandCooperationinEurope ERP–EconomicRehabilitationProgram EU–EuropeanUnion EUMM–EuropeanUnionMonitoringMission IDP–InternallyDisplacedPerson JCC–JointControlCommissionoftheJointPeaceKeepingForceinthe GeorgianͲOssetianconflictzone JPKF–JointPeaceKeepingForce NATO–NorthAtlanticTreatyCouncil OSCE–OrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope PACE–ParliamentaryAssemblyoftheCouncilofEuropePKF–Peace KeepingForce SR–SpotReport(oftheOSCEMissiontoGeorgia) UN–UnitedNations UNGA–UnitedNationsGeneralAssembly US–UnitedStatesofAmerica 8 iii.Listofgraphiccontents Graphic1 Modelofanalysis. 61 Table1 Phasesofviolence1989–2008. 66 Graphic2 Trajectoryofviolencebasedontheinvolvementof 67 typologiesofactorsofviolence. Table2 Sequencesleadingtoassertivepolicies:Initialcondition, 94 junctureandeventwithinterviewsources. Table3 CharacteristicsofWesternpoliciespriortoescalations. 132 Graphic3 ModelofreͲescalationofviolenceintheSouthOssetia 138 conflict1989Ͳ2008. Table4 Mechanismsofviolenceduringthreephasespriorto 145 escalation Table5 Differencesandcommonalitiesofmechanismsof 174 violenceinSriLanka,KashmirandSouthOssetia. 9 iv.MapofGeorgia 10 1. Introduction On 8 August 2008, the conflict in South Ossetia turned into war for the secondtimesinceGeorgia’sindependencefromtheSovietUnionin1991. Whenreportsofinternationalmediaconfirmedheavyskirmishesbetween Georgian,OssetianandRussiantroopsnearSouthOssetia,aboutanhour’s drivefromGeorgia’scapitalTbilisi(Syukaeva2010,KarumidzeandWertsch 2009, BBC News Special reports), it took nearly everyone – from international and domestic observers to local residents – by surprise. However, escalation didnot occurout of the blue. For months prior
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