UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI INSTITUTE OF DIPLOMACY AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES NEGOTIATIONS IN CIVIL WARS: A CASE STUDY OF THE SOMALIA NATIONAL RECONCILIATION PROCESS, 2002-2005 i Ochieng Kamudhayi SUPERVISORS: Prof. Makumi Mwagiru Prof. Patricia Kameri - Mbote Dr. Kithure Kindiki Thesis Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements of the award of the degree Doctor of Philosophy in International Studies to the Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies (IDIS), University of Nairobi October ,20U----- University of NAIROBI Library oJfllfP' c DECLARATION This thesis is my original work and has not been submitted for a degree to any other University. Signature Date 1 1 * | | This Thesis has been submitted for examination with our approval as University Supervisors Signature Date Prof. Makumi Mwagiru _______ Date Prof. Patricia Kameri-Mbote Date | I - II Dr. Kithure Kindiki l DEDICATION To Abilo, Tata and Nyakan Nyomitha ka Ng’ong’a Kodima; continue the good fight. 11 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT “Through our pain, they will see their injustice " Mahatma Gandhi The road to complete this thesis was long and full of obstacles and rewards. Although it is signed by me, this thesis is a combination of passing rites of passage and long hours of staying awake and working at the computer. This could not have been accomplished without the nutrients of intellectual stimulus and discussion, friendship and above all the love of many people especially Prof. Makumi Mwagiru Prof. Nyunya and Dr. Ludecki Chweya’s invaluable reengineering of the proposal stage. Pauline Onunga, Walter Odhiambo and Sam Opondo deserve special mention here for delving into the newspaper archives and other sources to dig materials that were rare. Above all I thank the Somalis especially, my great friend and brother, Mudhane Hussein Osman Hussein. This thesis started as a natural step to boost my professional career in the early years of 2002 during the Somalia Peace Process in Kenya. The Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies, University of Nairobi and the Somalia National Reconciliation Process, 2002-2004 helped me develop my interest and improve my knowledge and skills in the issues involved. I am very grateful to Prof. Patricia Kameri-Mbote and Dr. Kithure Kindiki for their contributions as my co-supervisors. The latter, for encouragement after my return from a long sojourn with the Latinos and the former for her deep reflections on thesis. For Prof. Makumi Mwagiru, I have a profound debt, recognition and admiration. He journeyed and encouraged me through the dark valleys of the academia, constantly sharing with me his vast knowledge and passion for poetry. Last but not least I highly appreciate the company of my friend, Judy Kibuye, colleagues and students at the Institute with whom I ventured during this long and tedious endevour. The views expressed in this thesis are entirely attributable to me. in TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION....................................... ................................................................................. i DEDICATION............................... ............................................................................................. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS........................ iii TABLE OF CONTENTS.............................................................................................................. iv LIST OF FIGURES...................................................................................................................... ix ABSTRACT................ xii CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY 1.1 Background to the Study....................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Statement of the Research Problem......................................................... ........................... 2 1.3 Objectives of the Study........................................................................................................ 4 1.4 Research Hypothesis............................................................................................................. 4 1.5 Literature Review....................................................................................................................4 1.5.1 Civil wars and Ending Civil Wars....................................................................................... 5 1.5.2 Negotiation and Mediation................................................................................................ 7 1.5.3 Power-sharing------------------------------------------------------------------------------------14 1.5.4 Somalia Conflict---------------------------------------------------------------------------------17 1.5.5 Selected Case Studies.......................................................................... -......................22 1.6_Theoretical Framework.......................................................-................................................ 23 1.7 Research Methodology........................................................................................................... 28 1.7.1 Research Design........................................................................................................... 29 1.7.2 Target Population------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 31 1.7.3 Description of the Sample and Sampling Procedure...................................................31 1.7.4 Types of Data and Research Instruments--------------- ----------- ----------------- ------32 1.7.5 Description of Data Collection Procedures..................................................-............. 33 1.7.6 Validity and Reliability of the Research Instrument....................................................35 1.7.7 Description of Data Analysis Procedures.....................................................-............. 36 1.8 Chapter Summary..................................................-...............................................................38 iv CHAPTER TWO AN OVERVIEW OF THE CONFLICT IN SOMALIA 2.1 Introduction--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------41 2.2 Migration and Settlement----------------------------------------------------------------------------------43 2.3 The Partition and Decolonization------------------------------------------------------------------------ 48 2.4 The Post Colonial Period-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------52 2.5 The Civil War Period---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------56 2.6 Somalia’s Regional and International Politics............................................................................57 2.7 Conclusion----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------62 CHAPTER THREE THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS AND QUESTIONS 3.1 Introduction--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------63 3.2 The theoretical consideration on the Somalia Conflict Context------------------------------------ 63 3.2.1 The Context of the Somali conflict....................................................................................... 66 3.2.2 The historical context of the Somali conflict...................................................................... 67 3.2.3 Psychological Context............................................................................................................70 3.3 Theoretical Considerations in Management of Conflicts...................... -.................................. 73 3.3.1 Systems View of Conflict Management-------------------- 75 3.3.2 Endogenous/Exogenous Third Parties------------------------------------------ -------............... 77 3.3.3 Heterogeneous Third Parties..................................................................... 77 3.3.4 Mediation Framework........................................................................................................... 78 3.4. Theoretical Considerations for Multiparty Mediation-.......-....................... -......................— 81 3.4.1 Motives of Regional Mediators..............—---------------------- ----------- --------------------- 84 3.4.2 Motives of Internal and External Mediators....................................... -................. .............87 3.5 Theoretical Considerations about the conditions for successful mediation........ ----- ---------- 89 3.5.1 Theoretical considerations in Multiparty Mediations............................. —........................ 90 3.5.2 Theoretical considerations in Success in Complexity------------------------------- ----------- 92 3.5.3 Theoretical considerations in Issues of Coordination—...................... —............................95 3.6 Conclusion............... 97 v CHAPTER FOUR THE PRE NEGOTIATION PHASE OF THE SOMALI PEACE PROCESS 4.1 Introduction-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------99 4.2 Pre-Negotiations Positions-----------------------------------------------------------------------------99 4.2.1 The IGAD’s Council of Ministers and Technical Committee for Somalia------------ 101 4.2.2 The Role of Special Envoys in the Somalia Peace Process------------------------------ 107 4.3 The Eldoret Meeting------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110 4.4 The Plenary and the Leaders Committee-------------------------------------------------------------112