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Home , Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Borys Kolesnikov, Hennadiy Moskal, KP (newspaper), Mayor of Kyiv, Oleh Lyashko

Public Opinion Survey Residents of

November 19-30, 2015 Detailed Methodology

• The survey was conducted by Rating Group Ukraine on behalf of the International Republican Institute. • Data was collected throughout Ukraine (except the occupied territories of and part of the ) between November 19-30, 2015, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ home. • The sample consisted of 1,800 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative for the general population by age, education, region and size of the settlement. An additional 1,284 respondents were also surveyed from and oblasts. Multi-stage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday methods for respondent selection. • Stage one: 25 official administrative regions of Ukraine were defined (24 regions of Ukraine and ). All regions of Ukraine were surveyed except the occupied territories of Crimea and parts of the Donbas region (the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts not under the control of Ukrainian authorities). • Stage two: The selection of settlements was based on towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to their size: • City more than one million residents • City 500,000-999,000 residents • City 100,000-499,000 residents • City 50,000-99,000 residents • City to 50,000 residents • Village • Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of the population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region. • Stage three: Primary sampling units were described. • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.3 percent. • Response rate was 65.9 percent. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • The survey was funded by the Government of Canada. 2 Detailed Methodology Donbas Oversample

• Data was collected throughout the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) between November 19-30, 2015, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes. • The sample consisted of 1,284 permanent residents of the Donbas region, aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, education, region and size of the settlement. • Multi-stage probability sampling method was used with random route and next birthday selection procedures. • Stage one: The Donbas regional territory was divided into Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The survey was conducted in all parts of those two oblasts under the control of Ukrainian authorities. • Stage two: The selection of settlements was based on towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to their size: • City 500,000-999,000 residents • City 100,000-499,000 residents • City 50,000-99,000 residents • City to 50,000 residents • Village • Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region. • Stage three: Primary sampling units were described. • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. • Response rate was 59.7 percent. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

3 Geographical Key

Due to the Russian occupation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in , residents of Crimea and the separatist-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts were not included in this poll. Those areas with lines through them indicate territories not under the control of Ukrainian authorities. 4 Pessimism is High Following Two Years of Violent Conflict with Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction?

80% 71% 72% 70% 69% 68% 70% 66% 64%

60% 65% 51% 48% 50%

40% 34% 29% 27% 30% 20% 18% 17% 20% 16% 16% 15% 15% 20% 17% 18% 8% 10% 15% 15% 13% 14% 13% 15%

0% November May 2012 May 2013 February April 2014 September July 2015 September Nationwide Donbas 2011 2014 2014 2015 November November 2015 2015 Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer/No answer

6 In your opinion, are the national authorities of Ukraine doing enough to keep the liberated areas of the Donbas within Ukrainian territory?

Donbas 6% 18% 23% 29% 24%

Nationwide 3% 18% 32% 32% 15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Definitely yes Somewhat yes Definitely no Difficult to answer/No answer

7 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the is doing?

Donbas November 9% 22% 56% 12% 2015 1%

Nationwide 3% 22% 28% 42% 6% November 2015

September 2015 4% 20% 29% 40% 6%

July 2015 3% 21% 34% 33% 8%

September 2014 15% 40% 22% 13% 10%

April 2014 11% 36% 19% 24% 11%

March 2014 9% 33% 20% 27% 11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer

8 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Cabinet of Ministers under is doing?

Donbas November 2015 1% 4% 17% 68% 10%

Nationwide November 2015 1% 11% 25% 57% 5%

September 2015 2% 11% 29% 54% 5%

July 2015 1%10% 32% 52% 6%

September 2014 13% 35% 27% 15% 10%

April 2014 16% 36% 16% 24% 8%

March 2014 12% 34% 17% 27% 9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer

9 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Parliament of Ukraine is doing?

Donbas November 2015 3% 20% 63% 14%

Nationwide November 2015 1% 10% 31% 52% 7%

September 2015 10% 35% 48% 6%

July 2015 9% 35% 49% 6%

September 2014 3% 14% 36% 37% 9%

April 2014 6% 33% 24% 26% 11%

March 2014 6% 32% 24% 26% 11%

February 2014 2% 11% 30% 50% 8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer

10 What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government? (Nationwide)

Mayor of 9% 32% 19% 21% 5% 14% Governor of Odesa oblast Mikhail Saakashvili 7% 28% 20% 31% 2% 14% Governor of Zakarpattya oblast 5% 24% 18% 25% 14% 15% Vitaliy Klitschko 4% 23% 26% 34% 1% 13% President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko 5% 22% 27% 39% 7% MP, leader of Batkivshchyna Yuliya Tymoshenko 6% 18% 26% 41% 7% MP, leader Radical Party 4% 19% 28% 43% 6% Businessman 4% 17% 16% 52% 2% 9% MP, former leader of Dmytro Yarosh 4% 17% 23% 43% 2% 11% Former head of security services of Ukraine Valentyn Nalyvaychenko 3% 16% 19% 33% 14% 16% Leader of Svoboda 3% 15% 23% 50% 1% 8% Head of Parliament Volodymyr Hroisman 2% 13% 29% 38% 5% 13% MP, Leader of Opposition Block 3% 9% 15% 57% 8% 8% Former governor of Ihor Kolomoiskyi 1%11% 23% 52% 3% 10% Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk 1% 11% 21% 62% 5% Head of the Lugansk military-civic administration Georgiy Tuka 2% 9% 11% 20% 44% 13% Leader of Ukrainian Association of Patriots (UKROP) 2% 9% 22% 44% 9% 14% Head of the opposition government 1%8% 13% 56% 13% 9% Head of the Donetsk military-civic administration Pavlo Zhebrivskyi 1% 6% 11% 26% 41% 15% Former head of the faction 1% 5%13% 58% 13% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very favorable Somewhat favorable Very unfavorable Have not heard the name Difficult to answer/No answer 11 What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government? (Donbas region)

Businessman Rinat Akhmetov 13% 22% 10% 39% 15% MP, Leader of Yuriy Boyko 4% 20% 12% 45% 4% 15% Governor of Zakarpattya oblast Hennadiy Moskal 3% 14% 19% 44% 4% 16% Head of the opposition government Borys Kolesnikov 2% 13% 13% 48% 7% 16% Governor of Odesa oblast Mikhail Saakashvili 2% 13% 19% 45% 2% 20% Mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovyi 3%10% 14% 41% 10% 22% Former Head of the Party of Regions faction Oleksandr Yefremov 2% 9% 13% 51% 6% 19% President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko 2%8% 19% 57% 13% Head of Lugansk military-civic administration Georgiy Tuka 1%7% 19% 36% 17% 20% Head of Donetsk military-civic administration Pavlo Zhebrivskyi 1%7% 13% 35% 16% 28% MP, Leader of Radical Party Oleh Lyashko <1% 7% 20% 59% 13% Head of Parliament Volodymyr Hroisman 1% 6% 26% 46% 4% 18% MP, Leader of Batkivshchyna Yuliya Tymoshenko 1%6% 20% 59% 1% 14% Former governor of Dnipropetrovsk oblast Ihor Kolomoiskyi <1%4% 20% 61% 1% 13% Former head of security services of Ukraine Valentyn Nalyvaychenko 1%4% 17% 50% 7% 21% Mayor of Kyiv Vitaliy Klitschko 4% 21% 53% 1% 20% Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk 1% 3%15% 71% 1%10% MP, former leader of Right Sector Dmytro Yarosh <1% 3% 18% 65% 1% 12% Leader of Ukrainian Association of Patriots (UKROP) Hennadiy Korban <1% 2% 18% 57% 10% 13% Leader of Svoboda Oleh Tyahnybok <1% 2% 18% 66% 1% 13% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Very favorable Somewhat favorable Very unfavorable Have not heard the name Difficult to answer/No answer 12 In your opinion, the detention of the leader of the Ukrainian Association of Patriots (UKROP) , Hennadiy Korban, is*:

Donbas 20% 37% 43%

Nationwide 27% 40% 33%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Fight against oligarchs and criminality Political persecution and selective justice Difficult to answer/No answer

*Korban was arrested by Ukrainian authorities at his home on October 31 before being released and re- detained on November 3 on suspicion of involvement in organized crime, embezzlement and kidnapping. 13 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Ukraine changed?

Donbas November 2015 <1% 1% 13% 32% 47% 7%

Nationwide November 2015 2% 14% 37% 44% 3%

September 2015 1% 2% 14% 31% 51% 1%

July 2015 2% 8% 28% 60% 2%

September 2014 1% 11% 29% 57% 2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened a lot Difficult to answer/No answer

14 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation of your household changed?

Donbas November 2015 <1% 20% 37% 40% 3%

Nationwide November 2015 2% 20% 36% 40% 2%

September 2015 1%2% 18% 34% 45% 1%

July 2015 1% 14% 29% 55% 1% September 2014 2% 19% 37% 40% 2%

April 2014 1% 4% 37% 34% 22% 3%

March 2014 3% 46% 29% 18% 3%

February 2014 1%8% 44% 31% 14% 2%

September 2013 1% 9% 41% 30% 17% 2%

May 2013 1%8% 46% 30% 14% 1%

September 2012 1% 14% 37% 27% 15% 5%

May 2012 9% 45% 30% 13% 3%

March 2012 1% 6% 39% 34% 18% 3%

November 2011 1%6% 37% 36% 18% 2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened a lot Difficult to answer/No answer 15 In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine to change?

Donbas November 2015 1% 3% 13% 29% 31% 23%

Nationwide November 2015 1%7% 21% 32% 23% 16%

September 2015 2% 11% 25% 23% 27% 12%

July 2015 1% 9% 19% 24% 27% 20%

September 2014 1% 10% 14% 23% 35% 17%

April 2014 1% 10% 13% 26% 43% 8%

March 2014 1% 12% 16% 26% 35% 11%

February 2014 1% 9% 20% 31% 28% 12%

September 2013 2% 12% 27% 29% 17% 13%

May 2013 1% 8% 38% 29% 12% 12%

September 2012 2% 17% 31% 24% 11% 16%

May 2012 1% 13% 35% 26% 11% 14%

March 2012 1% 8% 32% 32% 15% 12%

November 2011 1%7% 30% 32% 17% 13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen a lot Difficult to answer/No answer 16 How do you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries? (Nationwide)

Poland 13% 45% 35% 4% 1%3%

Belarus 10% 43% 40% 4% <1%3%

European Union 8% 41% 39% 7% 2%4%

Georgia 7% 39% 44% 5%1%5%

Lithuania 9% 36% 45% 5% 1%4%

Canada 8% 34% 47% 4%1% 5%

Germany 5% 37% 47% 7% 1%4%

United States 6% 33% 42% 12% 4% 3%

Moldova 4% 30% 53% 7% 1% 5%

Russia 3% 13% 21% 26% 33% 3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very warm Warm Neutral Very cold Difficult to answer/No answer 17 How do you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries? (Donbas)

Belarus 5% 39% 42% 5% 1% 9%

Russia 9% 30% 31% 14% 6% 10%

Georgia 2% 26% 51% 7% 2% 11%

Poland 3% 25% 50% 10% 3% 9%

Moldova 2% 24% 53% 5% 2% 15%

Canada 2% 20% 54% 6% 2% 15%

European Union 4% 18% 48% 14% 5% 10%

Lithuania 2% 20% 54% 10% 4% 11%

Germany 2% 17% 53% 15% 4% 10%

United States 2% 15% 40% 24% 10% 9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very warm Warm Neutral Very cold Difficult to answer/No answer

18 Which three of the following issues are the most important for Ukraine? 50% Military conflict in the Donbas 60% 40% Corruption within the state bodies 47% 34% Unemployment 27% 23% Control over price growth 25% 24% Low industry production 25% 26% Government incompetence 21% 18% Political instability 20% 22% Social protection for poor 18% 14% Hryvnia devaluation 17% 12% Relations with Russia 11% 3% Russian presence in the Crimea 7% 5% Crime 6% 6% Delay in salary/Pension payments 5% 7% Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water 3% 3% Rights to land ownership 3% 1% status <1% 1% Other 1% 2% Difficult to answer/No answer 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Donbas Nationwide 19 Which three of the following issues are the most important for you personally?

43% Control over price growth 55% 50% Military conflict in the Donbas 35% 21% Hryvnia devaluation 34% 29% Unemployment 34% 26% Social protection for poor 31% 26% Corruption within the state bodies 24% 17% Low industry production 15% 21% Government incompetence 14% 11% Political instability 12% 7% Delay in salary/Pension payments 10% 10% Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water 8% 3% Crime 6% 8% Relations with Russia 5% 4% Rights to land ownership 3% 3% Russian presence in the Crimea 2% 2% Russian language status 1% 6% Other 3% 2% Difficult to answer/No answer 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Donbas Nationwide 20 People of the Donbas Support Ukrainian Unity In your opinion, what status should the Donbas have (the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts)?

32% Be part of Ukraine as before 53% Support Ukrainian Unity: Be part of Ukraine but with extended responsibilities resulting from 35% decentralization reform 20% Donbas: 75% Nationwide: 86% 8% Become an autonomous territory within Ukraine 6%

Territories controlled today by so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s 3% Republics should be separated from Ukraine and the rest of the territory should stay within Ukraine 7%

7% Become part of Russia 2%

1% Become an independent country 1%

1% Other 1%

14% Difficult to answer/No answer 9%

0% 20% 40% 60% Donbas Nationwide 22 In your opinion, what status should the Donbas territories under the control of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic have?

31% Be part of Ukraine as before 53% Support Ukrainian Unity: Be part of Ukraine but with extended responsibilities 28% resulting from decentralization reform 18% Donbas: 72% Nationwide: 80% 13% Be part of Ukraine but with special status 9%

8% Become part of Russia 4%

4% Become an independent country 3%

1% Other 1%

15% Difficult to answer/No answer 12%

0% 20% 40% 60% Donbas Nationwide 23 Do you support the Crimean food blockade currently being organized by some activists*?

Donbas 9% 12% 19% 35% 4% 21%

Nationwide 24% 24% 15% 20% 5% 12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Fully support Somewhat support Totally do not support Haven't heard anything about this Difficult to answer/No answer

*Since September 2015, Crimean civic activists have maintained a blockade that prevents the shipment of goods from mainland Ukraine from entering the peninsula. 24 Do you support the Crimean food blockade currently being organized by some activists? (Breakdown by region)

West 40% 33% 10% 8% 4% 5%

Center 28% 27% 13% 12% 7% 13%

South 18% 23% 18% 29% 5% 7%

East 7% 12% 21% 35% 4% 21%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Fully support Somewhat support Fully don't support Haven't heard anything about this Difficult to answer/No answer 25 Do you feel that the Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are under pressure or threat because of their language? (Question only fielded in Donbas oversample)

2% 7% 9% Definitely yes

Somewhat yes

28% Definitely no

Difficult to answer/No answer 54%

26 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine? (Question only fielded in Donbas oversample)

2% 7% 20% Definitely yes Somewhat yes 22%

Definitely no Difficult to answer/No answer

49%

27 How do you evaluate Russia’s actions toward Crimea? (Question only fielded in Donbas oversample)

It is an illegal invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine 41%

It is a lawful protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine 11%

Other 18%

Difficult to answer/No answer 30%

0% 20% 40% 60%

28 In your opinion, which of the following should Ukraine do? (Question only fielded in Donbas oversample)

Remain a unitary country 50%

Become a federal country 14%

Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea 13%

Be divided into several countries 7%

Other 2%

Difficult to answer/No answer 15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

29 In your opinion, which areas should be a priority for the Ukrainian authorities in order to keep Donbas part of Ukraine? (Question only fielded in Donbas oversample)

Improve the economy and create jobs 62%

Improve basic services (health, education and infrastructure) 46%

Fight crime, corruption and reform the judiciary 46%

Focus on the status of the Donbas region and improve relations with Russia 19%

Focus on closer relations with the West (EU and NATO) 9%

Other 2%

Difficult to answer/No answer 12%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

30 Who do you think should hold the most responsibility for addressing local issues and providing services to your community? (Question only fielded in Donbas oversample)

Your local mayor 20%

The council of your city/town 16%

The governor of your oblast 11%

The council of your oblast 10%

The government and central government agencies 9%

The council of your rayon 9%

The governor of your rayon 7%

The council of your village 7%

Difficult to answer/No answer 12%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

31 Views on Issues In your opinion, reforms in which three areas should be the priority for national authorities in Ukraine?

43% The replacement of authorities and anti-corruption reform 56% 21% Judiciary 29% 15% Healthcare 28% 18% Decentralization 20% 14% Energy independence program and energy reform 16% 12% Law-enforcement 15% 13% National security and defense 15% 12% Agriculture 14% 13% Entrepreneurship development 13% 11% Public administration 11% 7% Tax 9% 8% Education 8% 6% Financial sector 7% 6% Program on promoting interests of Ukraine in the world 6% 7% Constitutional reform 6% 5% State property management 4% 2% Elections legislation 3% 4% Deregulation 2% 1% Public procurement 2% 4% Other 2% 20% Difficult to answer/No answer 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Donbas Nationwide 33 Which institution do you believe is most responsible for improving the standard of living and quality of life for ? (Question only fielded in Donbas oversample)

The President 36%

Cabinet of Ministers under the Prime Minister 35%

Local government 13%

The 8%

Other 2%

Difficult to answer/No answer 6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

34 If you could have only one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous economy?

Donbas November 6% 14% 28% 27% 25% 2015

Nationwide November 17% 19% 30% 20% 14% 2015

July 2015 13% 20% 34% 18% 15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Democracy is definitely more important to me Democracy is somewhat more important to me Prosperity is definitely more important to me Difficult to answer/No answer 35 If there are two candidates running for office and they have the same qualifications aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman, which candidate are you more likely to support?

Donbas November 2015 11% 24% 59% 6%

Nationwide November 2015 15% 16% 64% 5%

September 2015 21% 17% 57% 6%

July 2015 17% 17% 60% 5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Would vote for the female candidate Would vote for the male candidate Makes no difference to me Difficult to answer/No answer 36 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of women”?

Donbas November 19% 32% 7% 24% 18% 2015

Nationwide November 19% 32% 18% 7% 24% 2015

September 2015 26% 31% 23% 5% 15%

July 2015 22% 30% 21% 5% 21%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Strongly disagree Difficult to answer/No answer 37 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of young people”?

Donbas November 2015 19% 34% 17% 8% 22%

Nationwide November 2015 28% 37% 17% 6% 12%

September 2015 34% 37% 16% 4% 10%

July 2015 29% 33% 16% 4% 18%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Strongly disagree Difficult to answer/No answer 38 Should Ukrainian women serve in influential positions in the national government?

Donbas 71% 17% 12% November 2015

Nationwide 81% 10% 9% November 2015

September 79% 7% 13% 2015

July 2015 79% 10% 11%

September 80% 12% 7% 2014

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Yes No Difficult to answer/No answer 39 Foreign Policy If Ukraine were able to enter only one international economic union, which one of the following should it be?

Donbas November 2015 21% 33% 24% 22%

Nationwide November 2015 57% 15% 12% 16%

September 2015 57% 17% 12% 14%

July 2015 55% 14% 12% 20%

September 2014 59% 17% 9% 15%

April 2014 53% 24% 10% 13%

March 2014 52% 27% 6% 14%

February 2012 41% 36% 9% 14%

September 2013 42% 37% 5% 17%

May 2013 40% 37% 5% 18%

September 2012 32% 42% 6% 20%

May 2012 37% 41% 5% 17%

March 2012 36% 43% 4% 17%

November 2011 42% 40% 3% 15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% European Union Customs Union Other Difficult to answer/No answer

41 If Ukraine were able to enter only one international economic union, which one of the following should it be? (Breakdown by region)

West 87% 7% 3%3%

Center 65% 17% 9% 9%

South 51% 14% 16% 20%

East 20% 24% 23% 33%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% European Union Customs Union Other Difficult to answer/No answer

42 If a referendum was held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote?

Donbas November 2015 16% 47% 22% 15%

Nationwide November 2015 48% 30% 10% 13%

September 2015 48% 28% 8% 17%

July 2015 41% 30% 14% 15%

September 2014 43% 31% 17% 8%

April 2014 38% 40% 7% 15%

March 2014 34% 43% 9% 13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer 43 If a referendum was held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote? (Breakdown by region)

West 78% 9% 4% 9%

Center 55% 17% 5% 22%

South 37% 11% 9% 43%

East 15% 15% 21% 49%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer 44 Assessment of October 25 Local Elections Did you vote in the October 2015 local elections?

Donbas 43% 57%

Nationwide 54% 46%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yes No

46 If not, why didn’t you vote in the October local elections? (Nationwide n=827; Donbas n=729)

33% I didn’t have a desire to vote 31% 6% I was in a different place 17% Not voting was my way of demonstrating my protest of the 11% elections 17% 6% I hadn’t decided for whom to vote 13% 2% Due to lack of free time 10% 29% Due to the cancellation of elections in my area 6% 6% Health issues prevented me from voting 5% 3% I was not entitled to vote in this area 3% <1% I couldn't find my name on the voters' list 3% 4% Other 4% 4% Difficult to answer/No answer 1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Donbas Nationwide 47 In your opinion, were the October local elections free and fair?

Donbas 5% 21% 15% 8% 51%

Nationwide 8% 33% 25% 10% 24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Absolutely free and fair Somewhat free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Difficult to answer/No answer

48 Which of the following phrases best describes your opinion of the pre-election campaigns held in your community before the October local elections?

11% They were run by oligarchs 28% 17% They were within framework of the law 21% 7% Those were dirty campaigns 20% 12% They were issue-based 13% 7% They were violating the law 10% 3% It was a fair competition 9% 5% They were not issue-based 5% <1% They were grassroots campaigns 1% 44% Difficult to answer/No answer 21%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Donbas Nationwide 49 How satisfied are you with the political parties that were elected to your local councils during the October elections?

Donbas 5% 21% 13% 14% 47%

Nationwide 8% 32% 21% 17% 22%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly satisfied Somewhat satisfied Strongly dissatisfied Difficult to answer/No answer

50 If you are dissatisfied with the political parties that were elected to your local councils during the October elections, what is the reason? (Nationwide n=681; Donbas n=350)

18% They are corrupt 36% 29% They are composed of ‘old guard’ politicians 35% 13% They are controlled by oligarchs 35% 36% They are not responding to citizens’ interests 32% There is no difference between the parties. They are all the 17% same 21% 24% I do not share their ideology 17% 13% They are not professional enough 15% 1% Other 1% 2% Difficult to answer/No answer 2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Donbas Nationwide 51 To what extent are you satisfied with the city or village head who was elected from your community during the October local elections?

Donbas 7% 26% 13% 10% 44%

Nationwide 15% 37% 17% 12% 19%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Strongly satisfied Somewhat satisfied Strongly dissatisfied Difficult to answer/No answer 52 In your opinion, should more rights be transferred from central authorities to local authorities and communities? (Question only fielded in Donbas oversample)

22% 31% Definitely yes

Somewhat yes 3%

7% Definitely no

Difficult to answer/No answer

37%

53 Do you think your local authorities elected in the October local elections can be entrusted with more responsibilities as a result of decentralization reform?

Donbas 9% 24% 15% 9% 43%

Nationwide 11% 36% 18% 11% 24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Definitely yes Somewhat yes Definitely no Difficult to answer/No answer

54 In your opinion, what areas should be the top priority for your newly-elected local authorities? (Nationwide) Roads 62% Medical institutions 50% Housing and communal areas 48% Social assistance 37% Street lighting 32% Transportation 27% Schools 26% Kindergartens 26% Heating 25% Security 21% Pavements 21% Yards and territories around houses 20% Environment 19% Garbage collection 19% Land issues 18% Water supply 17% Sewage 15% Industrial areas 13% Culture institutions 13% Sport establishments 13% Public parks and squares 13% Street markets 10% Parking 8% Other 6% Difficult to answer/No answer 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

55 In your opinion, what areas should be a top priority for your newly-elected local authorities? (Donbas) Roads 50% Medical institutions 37% Housing and communal areas 43% Social assistance 38% Street lighting 34% Transportation 25% Schools 22% Kindergartens 19% Heating 25% Security 26% Pavements 18% Yards and territories around houses 25% Environment 21% Garbage collection 16% Land issues 17% Water supply 23% Sewage 16% Industrial areas 14% Culture institutions 13% Sport establishments 11% Public parks and squares 15% Street markets 7% Parking 6% Other 10% Difficult to answer/No answer 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

56 Views on Early Elections

Note: Some political factions are advocating for early elections Do you support holding pre-term parliamentary ?

Donbas November 2015 13% 14% 18% 26% 29%

Nationwide November 2015 18% 23% 20% 23% 17%

September 2015 15% 27% 22% 23% 14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Definitely yes Somewhat yes Definitely no Difficult to answer/No answer

58 If pre-term parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, would you vote in such elections?

Donbas November 2015 16% 20% 14% 33% 16%

Nationwide November 2015 28% 33% 10% 20% 9%

September 2015 34% 40% 4% 16% 6%

July 2015 29% 35% 9% 20% 8%

September 2014 42% 32% 7% 15% 5%

April 2014 49% 32% 4% 11% 3%

March 2014 42% 33% 5% 12% 8%

February 2014 41% 35% 8% 10% 6%

September 2013 34% 34% 7% 20% 5%

May 2013 34% 36% 8% 19% 4%

September 2012 46% 33% 5% 11% 5%

May 2012 39% 32% 8% 14% 8%

March 2012 40% 33% 9% 11% 8%

November 2011 34% 33% 7% 13% 12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Definitely yes Somewhat yes Definitely no Difficult to answer/No answer 59 If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the elections, for which one would you vote? (Nationwide)

Solidarnist Party 11% Batkivshchyna 8% Opposition Bloc 8% Samopomich 7% Svoboda 4% Radical Party 3% Ukrainian Association of Patriots (UKROP) 3% Vidrodzhennia 2% Right Sector 2% Civic Position 2% Nash Krai 2% Agrarian Party of Ukraine 1% Party of Common People 1% Left Opposition 1% People’s Control 1% Other 4% I would not vote 25% Difficult to answer/No answer 17%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

60 If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the elections, for which one would you vote? (Donbas)

Opposition Bloc 13%

Solidarnist Party 4%

Nash Krai 3%

Samopomich 2%

Batkivshchyna 2%

Left Opposition 2%

Strong Ukraine 1%

Radical Party 1%

Ukrainian Association of Patriots (UKROP) 1%

Civic Position 1%

Right Sector 1%

Other 3%

I would not vote 45%

Difficult to answer/No answer 23%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 61 If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the elections, for which one would you vote? (Among likely voters, Nationwide n=1,091)

Solidarnist Party 15% Opposition Bloc 12% Batkivshchyna 11% Samopomich 10% Svoboda 6% Radical Party 5% Ukrainian Association of Patriots (UKROP) 5% Right Sector 3% Vidrodzhennia 3% Civic Position 3% Nash Krai 2% Party of Common People 1% Left Opposition 1% Agrarian Party of Ukraine 1% People’s Control 1% 1% Yedynyi Centre 1% People’s Front 1% Other 3% Difficult to answer/No answer 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

62 If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the elections, for which one would you vote? (Among likely voters, Donbas n=471)

Opposition Bloc 31% Solidarnist Party 8% Nash Krai 6% Samopomich 6% Batkivshchyna 4% Left Opposition 4% Radical Party 3% Civic Position 2% Strong Ukraine 2% Ukrainian Association of Patriots (UKROP) 2% Right Sector 2% People’s Control 1% Svoboda 1% Vidrodzhennia 1% People’s Front 1% Other 4% Difficult to answer/No answer 24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 63 Demographics Demographics Nationwide Men 45%

Women 55% GENDER 18-35 34%

36-50 24% AGE 51 and older 42% Ukrainian 44% Russian 31% Both, Ukrainian and Russian equally 24%

HOME Both, Ukrainian and other language equally 1% Both Russian and other language equally 0%

LANGUAGE SPEAKING SPEAKING AT LANGUAGE Other 0% Primary/Non-complete secondary 3% General secondary 25% Vocational secondary 38% EDUCATION Higher/Non-complete higher 33% Worker 23% Farmer 2% White collar 19% Higher or medium level executive 2% Pensioner (not working) 30%

Student 4% OCCUPATION Housewife 9% Unemployed 7% Other 4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 65 Demographics Nationwide

Orthodox UPC KP 32%

Orthodox UPC MP 27%

Greek Catholic 9%

Catholic 1%

Protestant <1% RELIGION Atheist 4%

I believe in God, but do not belong to any religion 24%

Other 1%

Don’t know/No answer 3%

City 69% S

TYPEOF Village 31% SETTLEMENT West 24%

Center 31%

REGIONS South 22%

East 22%

0% 50% 100% 66 Demographics Nationwide

We need to save money for food. 15%

We have enough money for food, but we need to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes. 34%

We have enough money for food and necessary clothing and shoes, but we need to save or borrow money for other purchases like a good 36% suit, a mobile phone, or a vacuum cleaner.

We have enough money for food, clothing, shoes, and other purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchasing more 11%

expensive things (e.g., appliances). FINANCIALSTATUS OF FAMILY

We have enough money for food, clothes, shoes, and expensive purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchases like a 1% car or an apartment.

Difficult to answer. 2%

0% 50% 67 Demographics Donbas

Men 44%

Women 56% GENDER 18-35 31%

36-50 23% AGE 51 and older 46% Ukrainian 5% Russian 61% Both, Ukrainian and Russian equally 31%

HOME Both, Ukrainian and other language equally 2% Both Russian and other language equally <1%

LANGUAGE SPEAKING SPEAKING AT LANGUAGE Other <1% Primary/Non-complete secondary 6% General secondary 28% Vocational secondary 38% EDUCATION Higher/Non-complete higher 28% Worker 25% Farmer 1% White collar 17% Higher or medium level executive 1% Pensioner (not working) 34%

Student 4% OCCUPATION Housewife 8% Unemployed 6% Other 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 68 Demographics Donbas

Orthodox UPC KP 9%

Orthodox UPC MP 53%

Greek Catholic 1%

Protestant 1%

RELIGION Atheist 9%

I believe in God, but do not belong to any religion 21%

Other 1%

Don’t know/No answer 5%

City 89%

TYPEOF Village 11% SETTLEMENTS

Donetsk region 66%

REGIONS Luhansk region 34%

0% 50% 100% 69 Demographics Donbas

We have enough money for food, but we need to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes. 17%

We have enough money for food and necessary clothing and shoes, but we need to save or borrow money for other purchases like a good suit, 38% a mobile phone, or a vacuum cleaner.

We have enough money for food, clothing, shoes, and other purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchasing more 34%

expensive things (e.g., appliances). FINANCIALSTATUS OF FAMILY We have enough money for food, clothes, shoes, and expensive purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchases like a 6% car or an apartment.

Difficult to answer. 5%

0% 50% 70 Center for Insights in Survey Research 202.408.9450 | [email protected] www.IRI.org | @IRI_Polls

This presentation was undertaken with the financial support of the Government of Canada provided through the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development (DFATD)

Programme réalisée avec l’appui financier du gouvernement du Canada accordé par l’entremise du ministère des Affaires étrangères, du Commerce et du Développement (MAECD)