Where now? In-fighting scuppers coalition but leaves Mr. Yushchenko and his allies short of options

Taras Kuzio Business

30 www.businessukraine.com.ua politics 31 : - - - he he departure of two deputies, bloc one(BYUT) and Tymoshenko Our (NU- Defence Ukraine-Self each from the the than Yulia fewer with coalition an unworkable created has NS), Such Such a deal would help explain why it took so long to establish Many Many analysts claim that the coalition was already undermined Yushchenko’s shadow government shadow Yushchenko’s The creation of a shadow government within the of framework administrative the NSDC has also to barriers numerous created the functioning government. This process began four days after Mrs. parliamentary Tymoshenko’s confirmation when The NSDCsecretary. was appointed Bohatiriova Raisa leader faction actedforas the NSDC government has parallel unconstitutionally a previous six months (as it did in 2005 when it was headed by the After months Poroshenko). Petro figure anti-Tymoshenko staunchly crisis created by the President’s April 2007 dissolution of parliament ofparliament dissolution 2007 April President’s the by created crisis In 30. September on elections pre-term of holding the permitted and Regions of Party the promised have to alleged is President the return, Ukraine Our party own his linking elections the after coalition grand a with the of Party The to Regions. only appears be problem the fact Ukraine. Our of members the tell to forgot he that In elections. the October following September the coalition Orange the grand ideal coalitionwas asMr. Yushchenko’s still seen by the controver but strategic a of signing government’s Yanukovych Viktor Sea Black Ukraine’s develop to International Vanco with contract sial assurances given was government Yanukovych the Presumably shelf. created. was coalition grand the after place in remain would it that procrastination and tactics Stalling Another factor was the persistent unwillingness of a few NU-NS deputiesto sign the coalition withWith BYUT. bare a minimum of 228 deputies the coalition was always on inherently was knife a edge, coalition giving the the that optimism for cause Regions of Party It seems clear “unstable”. where the impulse for this unwillingness from. Ivan led Pliushch stemmed group the while serving renegade NationalSecurity and as CouncilDefence (NSDC) a secretary, body headed by the who President, could have Pliushch ordered to sign elec 2007 NU-NS’s result a As so. do to refused but deal coalition the a made was law” the before equal “everybody slogan, campaign tion over. were elections the as soon as almost of mockery T 225 required deputies.By theundermining OrangecoalitionPresi immediate his accomplished have to appears Yushchenko Viktor dent objective, but the options now open to him and the country are best. at unclear anticipated long collapse A The demise of a second Orange coalition(the first having fallen in a Tymoshenko, Minister Prime removed Yushchenko Mr. when 2005 come should under the step he 1996 could constitution) undertake as no Ever since surprise. the took power new government Orange in 2007 the November-December President and his and administrative obstruct to working been have Secretariat, Presidential the body, beginning the from stymied was coalition the reality In work. its block created. artificially them of most factors, of combination a by Yushchenko Mr. happened. even elections September the before long is widely alleged to have entered into an last unofficialagreement the ending with is deal This credited of Regions. the with Party May nian : U mage I on his lowest approval rating ever as as ever rating approval on his lowest a poll to 6.7%, according of just president Centre the Razumkov last week by released struggle against PM . Tymoshenko. PM Yulia against struggle victory a strategic scored Mr. Yushchenko the ruling from defected MPs when two June, but is teetering in early coalition Yushchenko pictured alongside hic chief pictured alongside Yushchenko and National Baloha Viktor of staff Bohatorova, Raisa head Council Security in the President’s his principle allies All for one, one for all? President all? President one, one for All for June 16-22, 2008 : of sniping the May 30 NSDC meeting issued anti-Tymoshenko aggressiveness of the head scenario is dependent upon how long Mrs. a “yellow card” to the Tymoshenko govern- of the Presidential Secretariat, . Tymoshenko sees it as being in her political ment. As this was the second such warning Mr. Yushchenko’s proverbial lateness even interest to remain Prime Minister when her Mr. Yushchenko has brandished it is plainly at NU-NS meetings pales in comparison to his government is hampered from introducing obvious that the President never watches the disrespect for his allies. Former adviser and reforms and accused of all manner of sins. beautiful game. long time friend and former This scenario also depends on whether the Defence Minister Anatoliy Grytsenko are only economy stays strong. If it plummets it would A brace of controversial a couple of the many people who have been make the government deeply unpopular. yellow cards unceremoniously dumped by the President. The latest NSDC yellow card was full of incon- Like many of his former entourage, they Scenario 2: Government removed sistencies and disinformation. The President harbour grudges. This perceived tendency to The government is removed by a no confi- claimed that May was traditionally a month cut old allies off has been compared unfavour- dence vote supported by the Party of Regions of deflation in Ukraine, which is not true. Last ably to the political culture of the Party of and Orange deputies loyal to the President. In month’s inflation rate of 2.1% is similar to the Regions, which is famed for either defending this scenario the government would remain average May inflation for the last few years of its members to the last or finishing them off in place as an acting administration until a 2%. In reality, anti-inflationary government itself, but never betraying them. new coalition proposed a new (or the same) policies in place since February have been government. The key here would be the blocked by the President and his allies in the A history of Orange splits formation of the new coalition. For NU-NS Orange coalition. The critique claimed that The latest coalition fiasco has many of the to join a grand coalition would require a vote GDP was declining which again is not true. In same causes as the collapse of Orange unity by a majority (i.e. minimum of 37 deputies) the first four months of 2008 GDP rose by 6.2% three years ago. The principle agent of insta- of the faction to withdraw from the coalition (industrial GDP by 8%) with a record growth in bility in both cases has been the President’s with BYUT. FDI of USD 3.4 billion. indecisiveness. Since Mr. Yushchenko entered The President and Mr. Baloha’s allies are The yellow card was also issued for the government in 2000 he has never been able thought to have a maximum of just 20 (out government’s alleged lack of a monetary to decide with whom to align, be it the radical of 72) NU-NS deputies, facing a majority policy, a strange criticism as the National Bank opposition of BYUT or with centrists such as bitterly opposed to any grand coalition. Even is headed by Mr. Yushchenko’s close ally Mr. the Party of Regions. if 37 deputies could be “persuaded” to vote Poroshenko and it is the National Bank (not It is this wavering between alliances that has to withdraw from the coalition, the NU-NS the government) that is responsible for mone- destabilised Ukrainian politics for the last bloc would disintegrate within parliament tary policy. And finally, the caution was issued eight years while undermining steps towards – as it already has outside. NU-NS deputies over the government’s refusal to abide by the meaningful reform. In the Kuchmagate crisis are angry with the President’s disloyalty and Vanco contract. An inter-agency group headed Mr. Yushchenko could not decide whether to disrespect, while many have personal grudges by Raisa Bohatiriova concluded that the support his arrested Deputy Prime Minister with the Party of Regions (such as deputy contract was in Ukraine’s interest and ordered Mrs. Tymoshenko or continue to support the NU-NS faction leader Borys Tarasiuk who the government to uphold it. The group’s President. After his government was removed was illegally removed as Foreign Minister by recommendations were a foregone conclusion he continued to waver between joining the the Yanukovych government) while the Self as Mrs. Bohatiorova is close to oligarch Rinat Arise Ukraine! protests or a coalition with pro- Defence wing of NU-NS (which has 20 out Akhmetov who has a 30% stake in the Vanco Kuchma centrists. The President’s inability to of 72 deputies) are furious at trumped up contract through his Donbass Fuel and Energy choose between grand and Orange coalitions charges launched against its leaders Yuriy company (DTEK). dominated negotiations following both the Lutsenko and Davyd Zhvannia. 2006 and 2007 elections. As the respected The majority of NU-NS deputies would Presidential party weekly Dzerkalo Tyzhnia wrote after the defec- never join a coalition with the Communists. kept in the dark tion of two deputies this month, “This is not a This means that with only 200 deputies in the What is perhaps most galling about these alle- political crisis. This is degradation.” As a result Party of Regions and Volodymyr , a gations of backroom deals undertaken by the of the defections it is now unclear whether sizeable number of NU-NS deputies would be President is that they highlight the continued the Tymoshenko government will continue needed to support a grand coalition. Ukraine’s reliance on Byzantine and non-transparent to function as a minority within parliament. constitution only permits factions, not indi- methods since the . The There are four likely scenarios that outline viduals, to join coalitions and therefore any membership of the President’s NU-NS bloc was the options available to Mr. Yushchenko as he split of NU-NS resulting one wing siding with never consulted over any grand coalition deal fights for his political life. the Party of Regions and another moving in May of last year, nor following the pre-term into opposition with BYUT would be illegal. elections. It seems that the President assumed Scenario 1: Slow degradation How different would such shenanigans be to (wrongly) that he could issue the appropriate The Orange coalition and the Tymoshenko those undertaken by the Anti-Crisis coalition orders and the members of the bloc would government continue to limp along until the in spring 2007 which led to the President’s fall into line. NU-NS members were never autumn. Neither side – Mrs. Tymoshenko or dissolution of parliament? consulted about Mrs. Bohatiriova’s appoint- the President – wants to be publicly blamed ment and have been flabbergasted by the for bringing down the coalition. Inevitably this Scenario 3: Pre-term elections

32 www.businessukraine.com.ua With no constitutional or legal way to reformat 2006 2007 politics parliament into a grand coalition the Presi- dent will have to choose between maintaining Mrs. Tymoshenko as Acting Prime Minister or dissolving parliament, which he can consti- tutionally still do if the body does not func- tion for 30 consecutive days. The President’s dilemma is that only two political forces would gain from a second pre-term election - Party of Regions and BYUT - meaning Ukraine would Oblasts where the Party of Regions President Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine move closer towards a two-party system. The polled highest party (orange) lost huge swathes Lytvyn bloc and NU-NS might not enter a new Oblasts where the Yulia Tymoshenko of support to Mrs. Tymoshenko’s parliament with NU-NS possibly demolished Bloc polled highest bloc in the 2007 elections. A new Oblasts where the Our Ukraine Bloc vote would likely spell total their – as it was in the city pre-term elections. (2006) or Our Ukraine - People’s Self electoral extinction Neither the Lytvyn bloc nor NU-NS would Defence (2007) polled highest therefore look forward to the prospect of a fresh round of pre-term elections. With ratings of 5-7% nationally and only and historically ill at ease population. the presidential elections. This is unlikely as 2% in the May Kyiv elections, NU-NS would United Centre’s failure is also pre-ordained central Ukraine traditionally decides who be unlikely to enter a new parliament with by its choice of allies. These include Kyiv wins the presidency and Mrs. Tymoshenko anything except a token force. Who, then, will Mayor Leonid Chernovetsky and the failed dominates this entire region. the President rely upon as his political force to NDP. Incredibly, United Centre is pinning its Mr. Yushchenko would likely demand as ally with the Party of Regions in a grand coali- hopes on merging with the NDP, the party that the price for any grand coalition its total tion? The President is not only hampered by a won only 5% in the 1998 elections despite support for his campaign for a second term lack of a strong political base but also by the being supported by administrative resources, of president. Mr. Yanukovych would have to fact he would be dealing with two stronger and which after the Orange Revolution failed rule out putting forward his candidacy and political forces after pre-term elections: coali- to enter the 2006 or 2007 parliaments. What campaign for his Orange Revolution nemesis. tion partner Party of Regions and opposition unites the NDP and the Peoples Union Our Far more likely is that the Party of Regions BYUT. Why would an empowered Party of Ukraine is deputy presidential secretariat would support the grand coalition until the Regions agree to give up the Prime Minister’s head Roman Besmertnyi, who played a presidential elections and then dump Mr. position to Mr. Baloha? central role in both projects. As both of these Yushchenko and put forward Mr. Yanukovych’s political experiments failed, Mr. Besmertnyi’s candidacy. It seems beyond the bounds of No party of power in Ukraine participation in United Centre should be a probability that the and , the The President’s new allies are a motley crew sign to any sober politician that the project is Party of Regions’ two strongholds, would vote of marginal and ineffectual politicians and similarly doomed. for the pro-NATO , a man parties. United Centre, Mr. Baloha’s new many Sovietophiles regard as a nationalist presidential party which was created earlier Scenario 4: Constitutional reform arch-traitor. A grand coalition would destroy this year, is the latest attempt at establishing The Party of Regions is currently wavering Mr. Yushchenko’s Orange base in western a party of power through administrative between two options, whether to work with and central Ukraine, except, perhaps, in Mr. means. As with other failed parties of power BYUT on constitutional reform towards a parlia- Baloha’s home base of Trans-Carpathia, the in Ukraine (People’s Democratic Party [NDP] mentary republic or with the President on a only oblast won by NU-NS in 2007. in 1998, For a in 2002, Peoples grand coalition. Because of greed, arrogance According to former Defence Minister Union Our Ukraine in 2005) United Centre and the party’s short-term horizons the Party Anatoliy Grytsenko, part of the May 2007 will be a flop. Ukraine is not or any of Regions will likely go for the grand coalition deal was that a grand coalition would elect other Eurasian autocratic regime where the even though its sustainability is dubious. If the Yushchenko for a second term in parliament. elites can be cajoled into joining a presiden- oligarchs who control the Party of Regions are Setting aside the problem of convincing NU- tial party of power. Ukraine’s diversity also really as afraid of Mrs. Tymoshenko as they NS to join a grand coalition how did the Presi- mitigates against a monopoly of power by any seem to be, one would think that changing dent assume he could change the constitution single party. And finally, presidential parties the constitution to a parliamentary system to a full parliamentary system? Where would of power only work where the President is would be in their interest, as this would mean he find 300 votes to do this? Not only does popular as in Russia where Mr. Putin had 70% that any future President would be stripped this bring back bad memories of Kuchma’s ratings to the end of his second term. Mr. of his/her powers. As Mrs. Tymoshenko is similar attempts to stay on as President but it Yushchenko has 7% ratings in his first term. hot favourite for the presidency, the Party of also shows total cynicism and hypocrisy in the Mr. Putin – unlike Mr. Yushchenko – can also Regions partiality to a grand coalition appears presidential secretariat’s criticism of BYUT ‘s draw on deep groundswells of nationalism odd unless one assumes that they are still support for constitutional reforms towards a as a unifying ideology, something which is labouring under the misguided perception parliamentary system as it appears that the impossible among Ukraine’s regionally diverse that their leader Mr. Yanukovych could win President may have beaten BYUT to it! l

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