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Home , Natalia Korolevska, Party of Regions, Yulia Tymoshenko, Yuriy Lutsenko

>> POLICY BRIEF ISSN: 1989-2667

Nº 141 - NOVEMBER 2012

The EU and : hapless but not hopeless

Natalia Shapovalova and Balazs Jarabik

Since his democratic victory in 2010, Ukrainian President Viktor >> Yanukovych has asserted his control over Ukraine’s political system by arresting leaders of the opposition, restricting freedom of assembly and HIGHLIGHTS speech and allegedly enriching himself and his close circle in the process. This has jeopardised Ukraine’s declared goal of European integration and • The October polls exposed has pushed the country into greater isolation from the West. Ukraine's corrupted political Last October’s parliamentary elections were meant to be a litmus test for system, but also the democracy in Ukraine. Amidst allegations of fraud in some districts, the resilience of Ukrainian polls exposed the of power and corruption present in Ukraine's society to an illiberal political political system. However, the results also demonstrated some level of regime. resilience against an illiberal political regime. The opposition did better • The incumbent Party of than expected and must now use its gains wisely to resist further regime consolidation by building on popular discontent with the ruling party. Regions will have to ally with The future is uncertain: the country's further democratisation is in the independent candidates to hands of . As for the EU, it is also facing its own litmus test in form a narrow majority in its relations with Ukraine. Its room for manoeuvre is squeezed between Parliament. the Ukrainian opposition’s calls for sanctions and the need for dialogue with the Yanukovych government. While the EU looks hapless in the • Ukraine's democratisation East, its relations with Ukraine need not be hopeless. The EU must find is in the hands of its citizens: a middle ground and position itself as a power broker before the 2015 the EU should enhance its presidential elections. engagement with civil society and support grassroots initiatives. UKRAINE'S RELATIONS WITH EUROPE

Since mid-2010, when Ukraine's democratic regression under Yanukovych became evident to all, the EU has voiced its criticism, THE EU AND UKRAINE: HAPLESS BUT NOT HOPELESS

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>>>>>> frozen its aid, downgraded the political dialogue dozen districts, candidates from Yanukovych’s and, most importantly, put the signature of the (PoR) tried to reverse the EU-Ukrainian Association Agreement on hold. electoral results by any possible means, from In May 2010, European leaders boycotted the delaying vote tabulation to annulling the summit of Central and Eastern European elections through court rulings and using police countries convened in Yalta. Many of them also force to oust observers, journalists and ignored the 2012 European football supporters to shield . While the championship held in Ukraine and . central authorities merely watched, the prime Germany's even called Ukraine ‘a minister was the only government official who dictatorship’ similar to Belarus. New member reacted, stating that the authorities had nothing states, such as Poland, have been critical too, to do with the troubled vote counting. while advocating continued dialogue for the sake of not ‘losing Ukraine’. Free and fair elections, The 2011 election law reintroduced the mixed redressing cases of selective justice against that existed before the Orange opposition leaders and reforming the judiciary revolution. Whereas the 2006 and 2007 were put forward as conditions to move towards parliamentary elections were based on the Association Agreement. proportional representation, in October half of the new Ukrainian parliament was elected But this approach does not seem to be working. through closed party lists in a single nationwide Ukrainian authorities have opened a new case constituency and the other half through first- against former premier , while past-the-post contests in 225 single-mandate the appeal sentence in the case of former interior constituencies. The introduction of the majority minister has increased his prison vote in single-mandate constituencies was seen term to six years. The -grown elite seems to favour candidates from the ruling party and to be sending a clear message to Ukrainians and rich independent candidates. Moreover, not all the West: this is our country and we will govern parties received fair representation in the election it our way. committees.

YANUKOVYCH’S JANUS FACE UKRAINE'S RESILIENCE

The recent Ukrainian parliamentary elections In line with pre-election public opinion polls have shown the two faces of the current ruling and the six exit polls, five parties overcame the 5 class. The first face ensured a relatively peaceful per cent threshold to enter parliament. and calm election day, thus pleasing the West. Yanukovych's PoR received 30 per cent of votes. Election results for the party lists largely coincided The united opposition Batkivshchyna with six exit polls shown across Ukrainian TV (Motherland) Party that had to run without its stations. International observers’ first reactions leader, Yulia Tymoshenko, obtained 25.54 per were cold but not devastating. The Office for cent. Led by world box champion Vitaliy Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Klitschko, the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance Organisation for Security and Cooperation in for Reforms (UDAR; means strike, punch) came Europe (ODIHR-OSCE) disapproved of the third with 13.96 per cent. The Communists and electoral campaign for being unfair, pointing to the nationalist Svoboda (Freedom) Party got the lack of a level playing field, but considered the more votes than expected, with 13.18 per cent voting and counting process positively. and 10.44 per cent, respectively.

The second and true face of the Ukrainian As predicted, the ruling party prevailed in the regime revealed itself after the elections. In a single-mandate constituencies, in which PoR POLICY BRIEF - Nº 141 - NOVEMBER 2012

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candidates won 113 out of 225 seats. This gives The positive results for extreme left-wing and the PoR the largest parliamentary faction – 185 extreme right-wing parties can be partly mandates. The united opposition Batkivschyna explained by the protest mood among the Party now has 101 representatives; Klitschko's Ukrainian population. The Communists UDAR 40; Svoboda 37; and the Communists 32. improved their results in relation to the 2007 Fifty seats were won by independent and small elections due to the growing disappointment of party representatives. Five seats emanating from eastern and southern voters with the PoR and its the problematic single-mandate constituencies anti-social policies. Though the Communists will remain vacant. The Central Election joined a coalition with Yanukovych's party in Committee stated that it could not endorse the 2010, in October’s elections they managed to results due to violations of electoral standards and present themselves as an opposition party to the offered a re-run. current capitalist rule. Svoboda started to rise in the 2010 local elections, but its impact was UDAR and Svoboda are newcomers. Their suc - limited to . Its success owes to a cess is mainly due to an increasing popular number of factors. First, it presented itself as a demand for new faces in politics. UDAR ran on traditional party with a clear ideology and party a liberal economic programme of strict anti-cor - activists (not rich businessmen) on its lists, and ruption policies, lower taxes and a better busi - seems to be free of oligarch funding (their ness climate for campaign spending was one of the lowest). small and medium Second, it is perceived as a more radical enterprises. The par - opposition, capable of standing against the Ukrainian ty owes its populari - strong hand of the PoR in parliament. Finally, society in both ty to its leader, voters reacted against PoR policies that favoured Vitaliy Klitschko, the Russian-speaking population and diminished the east and who entered the the status of the . Whereas Kiev City Council the Communists are pro-Russian and support west of the country in 2006 and twice Ukraine's integration in the Moscow-led has shown a ran for mayor. As his Customs Union, the Svoboda is anti-Russian and personal popularity is against Ukraine's membership in the desire for gradually increases Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). some believe that he However, both parties have adopted leftist a different kind intends to run as the economic programmes. of politics main opposition candidate against On the positive side, this electoral campaign has and politicians proven that wealth is not enough to win votes. in the 2015 presi - While it can be said that the campaign was dential elections. largely a competition between rich pockets, with UDAR is the first spending estimated at around $2.5 billion, opposition party to score evenly in all regions Ukrainians are not easy to buy. The oligarch- (except in Donbass and ), thereby easing sponsored of , the East-West divide. However, dependence on 'Ukraine – Forward!', that spent around $150 strong personal leadership is UDAR’s main million on its campaign, gained only 1.58 per weakness as it lacks a clear political platform and cent of votes. In Kiev there was another surprise. may end up having the same fate as Yulia Despite the ruling party’s generous spending on Tymoshenko’s block. The latter lost every fifth political advertisement and gifts to voters, it was member of the Parliament since the former unable to win a single seat there. In contrast, the prime minister was defeated in the 2010 presi - opposition candidates that did not have access dential elections. to media and public spaces and had to rely >>>>>> THE EU AND UKRAINE: HAPLESS BUT NOT HOPELESS

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>>>>>> mainly on door-to-door campaigning obtained population. The opposition did not win a good results. majority, largely due to the 2010 changes to the electoral system that reintroduced single- In the new parliament, a PoR-led majority is mandate constituencies. But after October’s likely to absorb most independent members and elections they will have a stronger representation those from smaller parties who were elected in in parliament (178 deputies vs. 161 in the old the single-mandate constituencies. This would legislature) and hopefully there will be less give the PoR a narrow majority in the 450-strong potential 'political migrants' to the ranks of the parliament, even without an alliance with the ruling party. Overall, these elections could signal Communists. However, such a majority will be the beginning of the end of the incumbent less homogeneous and more difficult to control regime. by the presidential administration.

Yanukovych's party may have won the elections, THE EU'S CHOICES but with fewer votes than expected. This can explain why the authorities, after having The first reactions from the EU largely reflected organised what could be described as satisfactory the ODIHR-OSCE preliminary assessment. elections, tolerated fraudulent vote counting in a European, US and domestic observers agreed that dozen districts. Now the opposition and the Ukraine's parliamentary elections represented a ruling party seem to be engaged in a wary step back in the country’s democratic dialogue over how to deal with the post-electoral development. The first concerns emerged at the crisis. The authorities have so far agreed to hold end of the post-election week, when EU High new elections in five disputed districts. The Representative Catherine Ashton and the opposition appealed against such a solution Commissioner for Enlargement and European insisting that the Central Election Committee Neighbourhood Policy, Stefan Fule, raised determine the results, but has not won a single concerns about the delayed announcement of the case in the court. results. The Polish president was the first to speak on the phone with President Yanukovych, voicing Election results show that Ukraine remains concerns over the ’numerous signals of serious divided between the south and the east that still violations during the vote count in the single- support the ruling party, although decreasingly, mandate constituencies’. and the centre and the west, where PoR ratings are lower than ever and the opposition enjoys The EU needs to address two main issues strong support. What is more important, following the elections. First, there are growing however, is that the Ukrainian society in both voices both within Ukraine (the opposition the east and west of the country has shown a parties in the country) and from outside (mainly desire for a different kind of politics and from the US Senate and some American NGOs) politicians, as well as resilience against calling for the imposition of target sanctions authoritarian pressure. Some voted for parties against Ukraine’s rulers. Second, the EU should with extreme ideologies (communists and decide how to proceed with the EU-Ukraine nationalists), others put their hopes in new faces Association Agreement. such as Vitaliy Klitschko, whereas many did not vote at all (the turnout was 58 per cent), It is critical for the EU to condemn the violations something that can also be attributed to during the vote count and the reported cases of disappointment in both the rulers and the fraud, but without seconding calls from the opposition. The government’s pro-oligarch and opposition for ‘political revenge’ in the form of anti-social policies are likely to increase sanctions against those involved in electoral fraud, frustration and resentment amongst the such as President Yanukovych, the general POLICY BRIEF - Nº 141 - NOVEMBER 2012

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prosecutor and the minister of the interior. can be a sustainable response to the country’s Sanctions would be morally justified, but are democratic regression. The EU seems to be unlikely to weaken the regime. The experience of divided over this issue. New member states, EU sanctions toward Belarus has shown that their notably Poland, seem to prefer to move on with effect is very low, if not null. This is mainly due to the Association Agreement, in the belief that the fact that for both the Ukrainian and the increased EU engagement with Ukraine is a Belarusian governments the priority is to strategic issue. The old member states, and most consolidate their regimes and not European importantly Germany, are hesitant to sign an integration. In Belarus, the impact of EU agreement with Yanukovych. When considering sanctions has been largely mitigated by the the further postponement of the Agreement, the country’s openness towards . Negative EU should think twice. Such a move, conceived (sanctions) or positive (the Association as a crisis response to political repression in Agreement) incentives will not work if Ukraine, could have serious implications over Yanukovych sees EU demands as tantamount to the long-term. regime change. This would push the EU from being a neutral broker to taking one side in the The Association Agreement should not be political conflict, which would close the door for regarded as a reward to the government, but as a dialogue with Ukraine. If sanctions are introduced mechanism to help Ukraine as a whole. Its main against those directly engaged in fraud in the aim is to assist the reform of the country's problematic districts, including judges, economy, advance the rule of law and introduce prosecutors and prison chiefs, among others (as European standards. Free trade with the EU did the US Congress in the case of the murder of would give Ukrainian consumers access to a lawyer Sergey Magnitski in Russia), it would be wider choice of high quality goods and introduce seen as a punishment of pawns. Despite the competition into the Ukrainian market. But current backlash against democracy, Ukraine there should be no hopes that the Agreement will cannot and should not be put in the same basket fix Ukraine’s democratic regression, mainly with Syria, Iran or even Belarus. The EU should because it was not designed as a democracy pursue a low profile engagement with the promotion tool. Nonetheless, signing the accord Ukrainian political leadership. could be a step forward towards setting Ukraine on a European path and inciting stronger At the same time, European observers should pressure for reform by pro-European political provide a detailed assessment of the elections and parties, citizens and those businesses interested post-election events in Ukraine, helping in free trade with the EU. The EU would also be Ukrainians to document the violations that able to demand better democratic standards and occurred in the trouble districts and insisting on reforms during the process of ratification and a free and fair re-run in those areas where implementation of the Agreement. elections were rigged. This is why the dialogue should continue. It will favour those in Yanukovych's government who support a more CONCLUSION balanced and pragmatic course and do not want to prolong the current crisis in EU-Ukraine The recent parliamentary elections have shown relations at any price. Moreover, Ukraine needs that Ukrainian society is gearing up for change. money to pay its gas bills and foreign creditors, The Party of Regions’ victory was narrower than which may make government officials more expected and contributed to further spoiling its inclined to dialogue with the EU. image. Voters are now more mature. There is resilience and slow progress in Ukraine, but a A more strategic question is whether curbing real alternative to the current political class has political, economic and social links with Ukraine yet to emerge. In this process, the EU should THE EU AND UKRAINE: HAPLESS BUT NOT HOPELESS

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remain critical towards the government, but at approach parties such as Vitaliy Klitschko's the same time open towards Ukrainians. Europe UDAR and even the ultra right-wing Svoboda. and its values and standards should be more The EU should ensure that its democracy and visible, present and accessible to the Ukrainian rule of law projects help pave the way for next population. A visa free regime and free trade year’s local elections in Kiev and the 2015 could make this happen. More initiatives presidential campaign, not least by supporting engaging Ukrainian society are needed. grassroots citizens’ initiatives.

The EU should remain closely engaged with post-election Ukraine. should find ways to move on with the association and free Natalia Shapovalova and Balazs Jarabik are trade agreement, applying conditionality in a associate fellows at FRIDE. more targeted way during the ratification and implementation stages.

The EU should not engage into a zero-sum game with the current regime, as it is unlikely to win. However, it needs to widen and deepen its contacts with the Ukrainian political class, government and opposition alike, beyond Yulia e-mail: [email protected] Tymoshenko's Batkivschchyna. The EU should www.fride.org