In Ukraine WP Promising Visions, Murky Realities
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Introduction Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Comments “Deoligarchisation” in Ukraine WP Promising Visions, Murky Realities Steffen Halling and Susan Stewart S In 2015, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced a process of “deoligarchisa- tion”. Not much has happened so far. Some of the oligarchs’ profit sources have run dry in the field of public procurement. Certain efforts have been made to curb the in- fluence of oligarchs with respect to media legislation and financing political parties. However, these reforms have not yet been implemented effectively. In addition, meas- ures in sectors that are fundamentally important to the oligarchs (the energy sector, in particular) have been extremely contradictory. As a result, the oligarchic system per- sists and is being supported and consolidated by the ruling elite. Unless external actors increase their influence, Ukraine is unlikely to free itself from the mire of corruption, despite its many reform endeavours. The Maidan protest movement that brought Political influence of the oligarchs about the 2014 overthrow of President Viktor Oligarchs in Ukraine are business magnates Yanukovych called for the oligarchs’ influ- who have had considerable influence on ence on the politics and economy of Ukraine the country’s politics since at least the end to be curtailed. Even President Poroshenko of the 1990s. They employ various means, declared that, in the fight against corruption, but always with the primary aim of cham- “deoligarchisation” would be given top pioning their own business interests. The priority. However, unlike after the Orange considerable financial resources of the oli- Revolution of 2004, this process was to be garchs are the result, but also the basis of ‘evolutionary’ and without the need for their political activity. Generally, oligarchs nationalisation or reprivatisation. Instead, employ three strategies of political activity: the intention was to destroy existing mo- Informal (corruption) networks between nopolies, strengthen state control in the oligarchs and the political elite, with the resource sector and reduce the political former securing economic profits and, in influence of the oligarchs. However, there return, the latter providing political sup- are questions as to whether this process is port, constitute the basis of their influence. actually taking place, especially since the These networks or cliques are found in all President himself is an industrialist and organs and institutions of the state – in par- arguably ranks among the oligarchs. liament, but also in bureaucratic agencies, Steffen Halling is a Doctoral Fellow in SWP’s Eastern Europe and Eurasia Division SWP Comments 51 Dr. Susan Stewart is a Senior Associate in SWP’s Eastern Europe and Eurasia Division December 2016 1 such as the Customs Office or the Anti- with a lack of legal certainty and strikingly Monopoly Committee. Furthermore, oli- high levels of corruption, all have a nega- garchs in Ukraine frequently take on politi- tive effect on the willingness of foreigners cal office themselves. This not only consoli- to invest in Ukraine. dates their political relationships but also makes them immune from prosecution. The third way oligarchs in Ukraine exert The oligarchs after Maidan political influence is through the media. The political and economic crisis that befell Oligarchs have controlled the country’s Ukraine during the Maidan protests placed most important mainstream media for years the oligarchs under intense pressure. Al- – especially the key medium of television. most all of the nearly two dozen oligarchs Particularly in the context of elections, tele- lost considerable sums of money in the vision gives oligarchs plenty of opportunity deep recession. Possibly the best example is to garner support for their own political the wealthiest member of the group, Rinat projects or political allies and weaken the Akhmetov. It is estimated that his fortune opposition. In order to diversify and max- shrank from US$12.5 billion in 2014 to imise their influence, they sometimes sup- US$2.3 billion currently. The number of port multiple parties simultaneously. Ukrainian billionaires has also halved since Since the oligarchs in Ukraine compete 2014 from ten to five. Only President Poro- against each other, their past political activ- shenko has managed to increase his assets. ities have tended to counteract any trends The value of his company holdings increased toward autocratic development. As a result, by an estimated US$100 million last year. they also contribute to a certain political In particular, those oligarchs with a and media pluralism in the country. Never- close relationship to Yanukovych suffered theless, their presence in the political an enormous loss of power. Their influence system remains a formidable obstacle to also decreased due to the collapse of the Ukraine’s democratisation. Firstly, they use ‘Party of Regions’. Serhiy Kurchenko, whose their considerable financial resources to rise only began under Yanukovych’s presi- distort conditions between the actors in dency, is, however, the only oligarch against political competition. Secondly, they ma- whom criminal investigations have been nipulate the process of shaping policies for launched in Ukraine. His holding company their own benefit. And thirdly, they pro- was confiscated. Just like other members of mote practices that are harmful to democ- Yanukovych’s innermost circle of power, he racy, such as corruption and clientelism. left the country after the fall of the regime, The symbiosis between politics and while Rinat Akhmetov managed to retain business promoted or personified by the his oligarch status, even though he lost in- oligarchs also has a massive economic fluence after the regime’s collapse. Firstly, impact because the oligarchs will usually Akhmetov has limited access to separatist only push through those economic reforms areas of the Donbas controlled by Russia. that maximise their incomes. In the past, Secondly, although he is still in control of this was particularly evident when it came part of the Opposition Bloc, the importance to issues of privatisation or legal changes of this political force as the de facto succes- in the area of public procurement, govern- sor of the Party of Regions – formerly the ment subsidies or energy trading. More- strongest parliamentary faction – declined over, monopolies created by the oligarchs dramatically after severe losses in the 2014 in certain sectors of the economy further elections. Akhmetov’s reduced influence hamper the development of small and in post-Maidan Ukraine was immediately medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Ultimately, noticeable in the energy sector. In the years the dominance of the oligarchs and their prior to the elections, the company he con- economic competitive advantages, coupled trolled, DTEK, became the largest private SWP Comments 51 December 2016 2 electricity producer in the country. How- new law put a stop to this practice. When ever, the National Energy and Utilities the government removed Kolomoiskyi’s Regulatory Commission of Ukraine (NEURC), crony from the Executive Board of Ukr- whose leadership was newly appointed nafta, he tried to take over the company under Poroshenko, decided to lower tariffs by force, but failed. He finally had to relin- paid by the state for the purchase of elec- quish the post of governor in early 2015. tricity, which led to considerable losses for The subsequent dismissal of Ihor Palytsia, Akhmetov. one of Kolomoiskyi’s partners who had Another oligarch, Dmytro Firtash, who been governor of Odesa Oblast since May was considered an important supporter of 2014, was a clear sign of his loss of power. Yanukovych and beneficiary of the klepto- The port city of Odesa is considered an im- cratic system, also lost power after the coup portant transit point for smuggling, and in 2014. For several years, Firtash profited Kolomoiskyi profited from this with the from a monopoly on gas imports. He is also aid of the local customs office. supposed to have received gas for his own companies from Russia under special con- ditions and to have acted as a Kremlin The comeback of the oligarchs stooge in Ukraine. After the change of gov- Despite the political dynamics described ernment, he was initially arrested in above and the temporary curtailing of the Vienna on suspicion of corruption in the influence of some oligarchs, their role has spring of 2014 at the request of a US court. hardly changed. This is evident from an He nevertheless continued to play a role in examination of the current parliament, Ukrainian politics and business, apparently which has gained importance since Ukra- protected through informal agreements ine’s return to the 2004 constitution and with Poroshenko and Vitali Klitschko (now the re-introduction of a more parliamen- the mayor of Kyiv). However, this did not tary-dominated system of government. prevent the Yatsenyuk government can- Although today there are undoubtedly celling leases on two metallurgical plants more reform-oriented members of parlia- and confiscating 500 million cubic metres ment in the Verkhovna Rada than ever of natural gas from his holding company, before, the oligarchs’ influence nonethe- Ostchem. less remains undiminished. They recently The fall of Yanukovych and the ensuing managed to assert their influence even marginalisation of his nepotistic clan, further, benefitting from the weakness known as the ‘family’, created room for of the ruling coalition, particularly in the other cliques. Alongside Poroshenko, the wake of the government crisis in the spring oligarch Ihor Kolomoiskyi also gained a of 2016. At the same time, however, Poro- great deal of power. In March 2014, Kolo- shenko also managed to gain additional moiskyi was appointed governor of Dnipro- power. petrovsk Oblast. He managed to ensure Both trends were clearly confirmed with stability in the region bordering the Don- the appointment of Volodymyr Hroisman bas. In the spring of 2015, however, a con- as Prime Minister. Hroisman is a long-time flict surrounding his investments in the friend of the President.