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Home , Oleh Lyashko, Oleh Tyahnybok, Olha Bohomolets, Party of Regions, Pavlo Sheremeta, Petro Symonenko

Public Opinion Survey Residents of April 3-12, 2014

International Republican Institute Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine.

• Data was collected throughout Ukraine April 3–12, 2014, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ home. Due to ’s occupation of the peninsula, resident’s of were unable to be included in this poll.

• The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative for the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement.

• Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent’s selection procedures. • Stage one: 25 official administrative regions of Ukraine were defined (24 regions of Ukraine and ). All regions of Ukraine were surveyed except Crimea. • Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the size: • City more than one million residents • City 500,000-999,000 residents • City 100,000-499,000 residents • City 50,000-99,000 residents • City to 50,000 residents • Village • Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region. • Stage three: primary sampling units were described. • • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.

• Response rate was 65 percent.

• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

• The survey was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development. 2 Opposition to Russian Military Intervention Strong in all Regions

International Republican Institute Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russian- speaking citizens?

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

April 2014 4% 5% 12% 73% 6%

March 2014 7% 6% 9% 72% 6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 4 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russian- speaking citizens?

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

1% West 5% 92% 2%

2% Center 1% 10% 84% 2%

South 5% 8% 14% 61% 12%

East 8% 11% 17% 52% 12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russian- speaking citizens? By age and gender

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

18-29 6% 4% 14% 71% 4%

30-49 4% 5% 11% 74% 7%

50+ 3% 6% 12% 73% 7%

Male 4% 6% 11% 73% 6%

Female 4% 4% 13% 73% 7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

6 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russian- speaking citizens?

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

2% Ukrainian- 3% 10% 82% 3% speaking citizens

Russian-speaking 9% 10% 16% 52% 13% citizens

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 7 Is it necessary for the Russian military to come into eastern and/or to protect the Russian speakers and ethnic ?

5% 3% 4%

12% Definitely yes

Rather yes

Rather no

Definitely no

Don't know/Refused to answer

76%

8 Is it necessary for the Russian military to come into eastern and/or southern Ukraine to protect the Russian speakers and ethnic Russians?

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

West 7% 91% 1%

1% Center 1% 7% 88% 3%

2% South 3% 13% 73% 9%

East 7% 10% 21% 52% 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 9 Is it necessary for the Russian military to come into eastern and/or southern Ukraine to protect the Russian speakers and ethnic Russians?

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

1% Ukrainian-speaking citizens 2% 9% 85% 3%

Russian-speaking citizens 8% 8% 19% 54% 11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 10 How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at…

54% Invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine 55%

17% Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders 15%

13% Protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine 9%

Response to the new Crimea leaders asking for 5% March 2014 help 7% April 2014

4% Protection of Russian military base in 4%

1% Other 3%

6% Don't know/Refused to answer 7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

11 Ukraine Should Remain a United Country

International Republican Institute In you opinion, should Ukraine… ?

Remain a unitary country Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea Become a federal country Be divided into several countries Other Difficult to answer/No answer

1%

April 2014 66% 7% 17% 2% 7%

1%

March 2014 64% 10% 14% 1% 10%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 13 In you opinion, should Ukraine… ?

Remain a unitary country Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea Become a federal country Be divided into several countries Other Difficult to answer/No answer

West 89% 4% 4% 2%

Center 77% 11% 5% 7%

2% South 58% 3% 26% 9% 2%

East 40% 9% 35% 3% 8% 5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

14 Do you support the idea of replacing oblast and rayon state administration with executive committees which would be appointed by the oblast and rayon councils?

Fully support 23% 29% Rather support

Rather don't support

Totally don't support

Don't know/Refused to answer 14% 25%

9%

15 In your opinion, what should be the status of Crimea?

Autonomous republic within Ukraine Crimean-Tatar autonomous republic within Ukraine Should become part of Russia Become an oblast of Ukraine Should become an independent state Should become part of Turkey Other Don't know/Refused to answer

April 2014 42% 20% 13% 8% 4% 10% 2%

1% March 2014 50% 13% 13% 8% 5% 1% 9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 16 Voter Enthusiasm for Election High

International Republican Institute Are you going to vote in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

April 2014 55% 29% 2% 10% 4%

March 2014 48% 31% 4% 12% 5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

18 Are you going to vote in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

West 17% 4% 74% 5%

Center 58% 34% 1% 5% 2%

South 29% 33% 3% 25% 10%

East 47% 32% 4% 13% 4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 19 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? All respondents; First choice

Petro Poroshenko 29% Yuliya Tymoshenko 13% 6% Mykhaylo Dobkin 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% Dmytro Yarosh 1% Nataliya Korolevska 1% Other 3% Against all 3% I would not vote 11% Difficult to answer/Don’t know 12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

20 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Likely voters, n=1,005; First choice

Petro Poroshenko 34% Yuliya Tymoshenko 15% Serhiy Tihipko 7% Mykhaylo Dobkin 6% Oleh Lyashko 5% Petro Symonenko 5% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 3% Olha Bohomolets 3% Oleh Tyahnybok 3% Dmytro Yarosh 2% Nataliya Korolevska 1% Other 3% Against all 3% Difficult to answer/Don’t know 11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

21 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? All respondents, Second choice

Petro Poroshenko 15% Yuliya Tymoshenko 7% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 7% Serhiy Tihipko 5% Oleh Lyashko 4% Olha Bohomolets 4% Mykhaylo Dobkin 3% Oleh Tyahnybok 2% Petro Symonenko 1% Dmytro Yarosh 1% Nataliya Korolevska 1% 1% Other 3% Against all 8% I would not vote 13% Difficult to answer/Don’t know 26%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

22 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, for whom would you vote?

Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

41% 15% 21% 12% 11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

23 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, for whom would you vote?

Petro Poroshenko Mykhaylo Dobkin Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

51% 12% 14% 12% 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

24 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, for whom would you vote?

Petro Poroshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

50% 13% 14% 12% 11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

25 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, for whom would you vote?

Yuliya Tymoshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

31% 17% 26% 13% 13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

26 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, for whom would you vote?

Yuliya Tymoshenko Mykhaylo Dobkin Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

33% 12% 28% 14% 13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

27 In your opinion, will Russia attempt to disrupt or discredit the upcoming presidential election in Ukraine?

11% Definitely yes

12% Rather yes 37% Rather no

13% Definitely no

Don't know/Refused to answer

27%

28 In your opinion, will the next presidential election be…?

Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know/Refused to answer

April 2014 11% 38% 22% 16% 13%

March 2014 7% 34% 27% 15% 17%

February 2014 4% 20% 35% 22% 19%

September 2013 2% 17% 39% 26% 16%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 29 Confidence in the Government Holds

International Republican Institute Do you approve or disapprove of the job acting President is doing?

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer

April 2014 11% 35% 19% 24% 11%

March 2014 9% 33% 20% 27% 11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

31 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is doing?

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer

April 2014 16% 36% 16% 24% 8%

March 2014 12% 34% 17% 27% 9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 32 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Parliament of Ukraine is doing?

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer

April 2014 6% 33% 24% 26% 11%

March 2014 6% 33% 24% 26% 11%

February 2014 2% 11% 30% 50% 7%

September 2013 10% 35% 45% 9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 33 How would you evaluate the efforts of the new authorities in Ukraine to secure the territorial integrity of Ukraine?

7% They do everything 14% that can be done

23% They do part of what can be done

They do very little of what can be done 29% Total inactivity

Difficult to answer/No 27% answer

34 What is your opinion about each of these members of the Ukrainian government?

Favorable Unfavorable Have not heard the name Don't know/No answer

Prime Minister 53% 40% 1%6%

Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov 47% 43% 1%9% Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council 38% 41% 8% 13%

Minister of Internal Affairs 30% 51% 5% 14%

Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Andriy Deshchytsia 26% 23% 36% 15%

First Deputy Prime Minister Vitaliy Yarema 26% 30% 27% 17%

Acting Minister of Defense Mykhaylo Koval 23% 23% 37% 17%

Minister of Healthcare Oleh Musiy 19% 20% 44% 17%

Deputy Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman 19% 21% 45% 15%

Minister of Economic Development 18% 22% 44% 16%

Minister of Education and Science Serhiy Kvit 16% 18% 51% 14%

Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Sych 13% 18% 56% 13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

35 What is your opinion about each of these Ukrainian politicians and civic activists?

Favorable Unfavorable Have not heard the name Don't know/No answer

Petro Poroshenko 63% 30% 1%6%

Olha Bohomolets 60% 21% 6% 13% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 50% 32% 6% 12%

Vitaliy Klychko 50% 45% 5% 40% 51% 1% 8%

Yuliya Tymoshenko 34% 59% 7%

Lesya Orobets 32% 26% 30% 12%

Oleh Tyahnybok 30% 65% 5%

Dmytro Yarosh 25% 59% 3% 13%

Serhiy Tihipko 19% 73% 8%

Mykhaylo Dobkin 15% 75% 3% 7%

Petro Symonenko 12% 82% 6%

Vasyl Hatsko 9% 16% 66% 9%

Hanna Hopko 7% 14% 71% 8%

Viktor Yanukovych 4% 92% 4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 36 Majority Want Closer Ties to Europe

International Republican Institute If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, should it be with…?

European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Other Don't know/No answer

April 2014 53% 24% 10% 13%

March 2014 52% 27% 6% 14%

February 2014 41% 36% 9% 14%

September 42% 37% 5% 16% 2013

May 2013 40% 37% 5% 18%

August 2012 32% 42% 6% 20%

May 2012 37% 41% 5% 17%

March 2012 36% 43% 4% 17%

November 42% 40% 3% 15% 2011

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 38 If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, should it be with…?

European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Don't know/No answer

2% West 82% 3% 12%

Center 69% 10% 9% 12%

South 28% 32% 19% 21%

East 27% 53% 10% 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

39 If a referendum was held today on Ukraine joining the European Union, how would you vote?

Would vote for Ukraine to join the European Union Would vote against Ukraine joining the European Union Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer

April 2014 54% 31% 7% 8%

March 2014 53% 28% 8% 11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 40 If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, should it be with…?

Would vote for Ukraine to join the European Union Would vote against Ukraine joining the European Union Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer

West 83% 10% 2% 5%

Center 70% 17% 4% 9%

South 28% 37% 20% 15%

East 27% 59% 8% 6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 41 If a referendum was held today on Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, how would you vote?

Would vote for Ukraine to join the Customs Union Would vote against Ukraine joining the Customs Union Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer

April 2014 24% 57% 9% 10%

March 28% 51% 15% 6% 2014

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 42 If a referendum was held today on Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, how would you vote?

Would vote for Ukraine to join the Customs Union Would vote against Ukraine joining the Customs Union Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer

West 4% 82% 7% 7%

Center 9% 75% 7% 9%

South 31% 35% 16% 18%

East 53% 29% 8% 9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 43 Parliamentary Elections

International Republican Institute Do you think that early parliamentary elections should be carried out in the near future?

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

April 2014 37% 31% 12% 9% 11%

March 2014 27% 35% 12% 12% 14%

February 2014 2% 11% 30% 50% 7%

September 2013 10% 35% 45% 9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 45 If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote?

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

April 2014 49% 32% 4% 11% 4%

March 2014 42% 33% 5% 12% 8%

February 2014 41% 35% 8% 10% 6%

September 2013 34% 34% 7% 20% 5%

May 2013 33% 36% 8% 19% 4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 46 If parliamentary elections were held today, which would you vote for?

Solidarnist (P. Poroshenko) 16%

Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) 15% Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform 9% (UDAR) (V. Klychko) 8%

Svoboda (O. Tyahnybok) 5%

Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O. Lyashko) 5%

Communist Party (P. Symonenko) 4%

Pravyi Sector (D. Yarosh) 1%

Ukraine-Forward! (N. Korolevska) 1%

Other 4%

I would not vote 13%

Don't know/Refused to answer 20%

0% 10% 20% 30%

47 In your opinion, will the next parliamentary elections be…?

Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know/Refused to answer

April 2014 10% 37% 22% 16% 15%

March 2014 7% 33% 26% 16% 18%

February 2014 4% 20% 36% 22% 18%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

48 Mood of Ukraine

International Republican Institute Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction?

Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer 80%

70% 71% 73% 69% 66% 67% 60% 64% 58% 50% 52% 48% 40% 30% 34% 30% 24% 20% 18% 18% 20% 16% 14% 16% 18% 18% 15% 15% 17% 18% 10% 13% 13% 14%

0% November March May August May September February March April 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014

50 Over the last 12 months, the financial situation of your household has…

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/No answer

April 2014 1% 37% 34% 22% 3% 4%

1% March 2014 46% 29% 18% 3% 3%

February 2014 1% 8% 44% 31% 14% 2%

September 2013 1% 9% 41% 30% 17% 2%

May 2013 1% 8% 46% 30% 14% 1%

August 2012 1% 14% 37% 27% 15% 5%

May 2012 9% 45% 30% 13% 3%

March 2012 1%6% 39% 34% 18% 2%

November 2011 1%6% 37% 36% 18% 2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 51 In the next 12 months, do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine will…

Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/No answer

April 2014 1% 10% 13% 26% 43% 7%

March 2014 1% 11% 16% 26% 35% 11%

1% February 2014 9% 20% 31% 28% 12%

September 2013 2% 12% 27% 29% 17% 13%

May 2013 8% 38% 29% 12% 12%

August 2012 2% 17% 31% 24% 11% 16%

May 2012 1% 13% 35% 26% 11% 14%

March 2012 1% 8% 32% 32% 15% 12%

1% November 2011 7% 30% 32% 17% 13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 52 Views on Foreign Countries

International Republican Institute How do you perceive the level of support for Ukraine from the following countries during the Crimea crisis?

Supportive Neutral Not supportive Don't know/Refused to answer

Poland 51% 29% 12% 8%

European 30% 13% 8% Union 49%

United States 45% 34% 14% 8%

Germany 44% 35% 13% 8%

Lithuania 42% 33% 14% 11%

Canada 37% 37% 13% 13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 54 Demographics

International Republican Institute Demographics

Male 45%

Female 55% GENDER 18-29 years 22%

30-49 years 35% AGE 50 years and older 44% Ukrainian 69%

Russian 30% HOME

Other 1%

LANGUAGE SPOKENAT Secondary or lower 32% Vocational 36%

Higher 32% EDUCATION collar 24% Farmer 1% White collar 20% Higher or medium executive 1% Retired (not working) 31%

Student 4% OCCUPATION Housewife 9% Unemployed 7% Other 3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 56 Demographics

Orthodox 78% Greek Catholic 7% Other 3%

RELIGION Atheist 1% Believe in God but don't belong to any religion 11% Bad 41% Average 57%

Good 1% FAMILY

SITUATION OF SITUATION No answer 1% City with more than 1 million 13% City with 500-999 thousand 8% City with 100-499 thousand 18% City with 50-99 thousand 8%

Up to 50 thousand 22% SETTLEMENT TYPE SETTLEMENT Rural area 31% West 22% Center 30%

South 19% REGIONS East 29%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 57 Demographics

Due to Russia’s occupation of the peninsula, resident’s of Crimea were unable to be included in this poll. 58 International Republican Institute (202) 408-9450 | [email protected] www.IRI.org | @IRIGlobal