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Home , Alec Erwin, Blessing Chebundo, Border Gezi, Cephas Msipa, Destabilisation, Emmerson Mnangagwa

www.-confidential.com 21 July 2000 Vol 41 No 15 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL 3 Multi-party Mugabe Real multi-party politics started Cross-border crisis raucously in ’s parliament and are paying back the Taylor regime for its on 18 July, with both sides breaking rebel sponsorship. But their operations could spin out of control into song after the election of Emmerson Manangagwa as Self-proclaimed guerrilla maestro Charles Taylor is in a bind. The border wars between Liberia, Speaker. He remains a front- Sierra Leone and Guinea, stoked by the Liberian President, are rebounding on his government. runner to succeed Mugabe who, Variously-named Liberian rebel groups have crossed from Guinea into Liberia’s north-west Lofa contrary to expectations, has County, capturing the main provincial town of Voinjama. Presidents Lansana Conté of Guinea and purged the old ZANU-PF hierarchy Ahmad Tejan Kabbah of Sierra Leone have lost patience with Taylor and the Liberian-sponsored in his latest government reshuffle. dissidents and are tolerating, if not actively encouraging, Liberian rebel groups operating from their countries. Taylor accuses Britain and the of orchestrating a rebellion against his 5 regime. There are, of course, all round. There has been heavy fighting around Voinjama and Taylor’s forces have had trouble pushing The Bouteflika back the rebels. Lofa County is Liberia’s bread-basket and the main transit route into Sierra Leone paradox for Taylor’s allies in the Revolutionary United Front. Lofa’s refugee camps host several thousand Sierra Leoneans and Guineans, including RUF fighters and their families. Liberian military sources President Bouteflika has consolidated his power, exploiting claim that SLR rifles, supplied by Britain to the pro-Kabbah forces in Freetown, have turned up in the public’s longing for peace to the hands of anti-Taylor rebels. give substance to his presidency. Previous cross-border raids from Guinea into Liberia didn’t worry Taylor much. Taylor and Conté However, an upsurge in Islamist are not friends: Liberia has been hosting the late President Ahmed Sékou Touré’s son Ahmed, who violence and social tensions wants to build a rebel movement to oust Conté. The respected Guinean opposition politician Alpha suggests that the mercurial President, who has several times Condé is accused by Conté of plotting dangerously with Taylor. President Conté, from the Sousou threatened to resign, faces , is happy to see Guinea’s commercially powerful Mandingos join forces with Liberian difficulties in the coming months. Mandingos to fight Taylor. Conté fears that Taylor and President Blaise Compaoré of Burkina His toughest task is to create a Faso will turn on Guinea after Sierra Leone. climate in which vested interests can pull back from dominating a liberalising economy and society. Dissing the dissidents A year ago, as the Lomé peace accord was signed, Kabbah’s cabinet tried to conciliate the Taylor regime. A senior Liberian official told Africa Confidential that, last year, the Kabbah government 6 twice tried to hand over anti-Taylor rebels to . When a dissident Liberian group approached Kabbah for financial backing against Taylor, Kabbah’s officials reported the fact to Talking left, acting Monrovia, to show they were serious about security cooperation. Some of the suspects were arrested right and handed over, others escaped. In a second incident, Kabbah’s forces detained over 100 armed The ANC has emerged from its Liberian dissidents in eastern Sierra Leone, who also claimed to be plotting Taylor’s overthrow. national general council looking This time, Taylor told Kabbah to keep them in detention. more like the Western social That limited security cooperation has broken down since the RUF restarted the war in May, with democratic parties that are its Monrovia’s backing. Some pro-Kabbah forces are working with Liberian dissidents. A few hundred colleagues in the Socialist International. Although its Liberians are based at the back of Freetown’s Brookfields Hotel as part of the ‘Special Forces’ of leadership deployed the grand the Kamajor militia, led by Deputy Defence Minister Sam Hinga Norman. Young Liberians in rhetoric of its revolutionary past, Sierra Leone are encouraged to join the force, which claims more than 400 members. So far, the this was more to sustain President Liberians have been little more than a mercenary unit, alongside the Kamajors under battlefield ’s radical image than commander Junior Tarrawali; they now plan to attack Liberia from bases at Zimmi and Pujehun as a pointer to government policy. in south-eastern Sierra Leone. These Liberian dissidents cooperate with fighters from Alhaji G.V. Kromah’s former Mandingo- POINTERS 8 dominated United Liberation Movement for Democracy in Liberia - the ULIMO-K faction, based in Guinea and blamed by Taylor for the most recent cross-border raid into Liberia and a previous one Côte d’Ivoire, in August 1999, which led to a Liberian strike into Guinea. Kromah fled to the USA after losing the , Equatorial 1997 elections but keeps in touch with home. Other Liberian dissidents in Sierra Leone are Krahn fighters from the late President ’s Guinea and OAU army and the ULIMO-J faction loyal to former warlord . The latter was Rural Moving goalposts; cash yes, Development Minister in Taylor’s post-election government, until he provoked a confrontation with reform?; call the ex-marines; and Taylor’s security forces, which escalated into the slaughter of some 300 Krahn people. Johnson took unity Gadaffi-style. refuge in the US Embassy and, after intense negotiations and the wounding of a US diplomat by 21 July 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 15

Taylor; Special Operations Division, incorporating the National Kissi Voinjama BORDER Police Department and the , both of them RAIDS thoroughly purged. Various training units are linked to the RUF, SIERRA Mende GUINEA LEONE Loma under the command of Taylor’s son Chucky and the RUF’s Mandingo Zorzor Commander, Sam ‘Maskita’ Bockarie. The security outfits often Gola LOFA Mano use vehicles without registration plates, so are hard to trace. Zimmi Mende Kpelle Belle Sanniquellie GRAND The security agencies, nominally under National Security CAPE MOUNT Gola Gbarnga Minister Philip Kamah and Defence Minister Chea, are in fact Mandingo CÔTE Vai Tubmanburg Kpelle BONG controlled by Taylor. He could probably field more fighters than Vai NIMBA D’IVOIRE BOMI O Roberts- D Bassa Gio Sierra Leone and Guinea combined; alongside the RUF and their A port R R MARGIBI Dei E S Kakata T South African mercenary trainers, they have proved lethally Bensonville N O LIBERIA M Kru MONROVIA GRAND BASSA Krahn effective in Sierra Leone. Despite the arms embargo, Taylor has Bassa built up a formidable arsenal, with hundreds of millions of dollars RIVER Buchanan CESS for new orders. Sapo GRAND The elite ATU and its associated forces are paid regularly and are GEDEH River Atlantic Cess SINOE hyper-loyal but other government forces may be torn by ethnic Ocean Grebo tensions - in Lofa County between Lorma and Mandingo and in Greenville Kru Grebo , between Mandingo and Gio and (the GRAND M A KRU R old NPFL support base). Taylor’s antipathy towards the Mandingo Ethnic groups are shown in italics Y Barclayville L Kru A 0 Kilometres 100 150 N and the Krahn (who dominated Doe’s national army) allowed the D small ULIMO militias to capture vast swathes of Liberia in the 0 Miles 50 100 Harper early 1990s. They now want to do it again. Taylor’s fighters, was evacuated to . Chea claims 600 fighters have been infiltrated into Monrovia Liberian dissidents in Sierra Leone say the Kamajors have from neighbouring states. This gives Taylor an excuse to keep the offered logistics and hundreds of their own fighters for an attack on country on a permanent war footing, with restrictions on security Liberia. Their hardliners have been urging Kabbah to tolerate the and movement, and the elimination of political rivals. The Lofa use of Sierra Leone as their base. In June, these dissidents met crisis also gives him a pretext for moving troops and equipment fighters from both former ULIMO factions at a hotel in Freetown towards the borders with Guinea and Sierra Leone, where they to discuss strategy. Taylor’s Defence Minister, Daniel Chea, says could also reinforce RUF positions in the diamond fields across the that oppositionists such as Charles Den, Abdoulaye Keita, Joe border; smuggled stones bring him fat profits. In Lofa recently, it Gbala and Varmah Koney were at the meeting. (Also linked is is claimed, RUF soldiers (seen as ultra-loyal to their paymaster, Lavali Supuwood, who defected from Taylor’s National Patriotic Taylor) were taken from refugee camps to fight alongside Liberian Front of Liberia in the mid-1990s). They now want to include government troops. civilian groups and individuals outside Liberia, such as California- based Thomas Q. Harris, an engineer who stood for the vice- Nimba provides the backbone presidency in 1997 for the Liberia National Union Party. Taylor’s military backbone has been fighters from Nimba, where Another group, Liberians United for Reconciliation and he launched his rebellion in 1989. His support there has been Democracy, led by Mandingo businessman Mohammed Siaboso shaken by the mysterious death last month of Vice-President Jumandy, claims to be spearheading the Lofa attacks and confident Enoch Dogolea, 48, who had been with Taylor from the start. of ousting Taylor. Dogolea was sonething of a hero among Nimba people. But Taylor Elections are due in Liberia in 2003 but the opposition is falling has never forgiven him for writing a letter, signed by 40 other apart, lacking funds and a coherent platform. Some Taylor aides Nimba fighters, in the mid-1980s, telling that Taylor had suggest there may be no need for an election, as Liberians could links to US intelligence. The new Vice-President is Moses Z. instead present petitions urging him to stay on - a device that kept Blah, Ambassador to Libya and , also from Nimba and the late President William Tubman in office for almost 30 years. trained in Libyan military schools. The most credible opposition party is ’s Taylor’s sponsorship of the RUF rebellion in Sierra Leone has United Party, whose supporters are hounded and whose candidate infuriated Western powers. On 17 July, after meeting Taylor, US in the Buchanan senatorial by-election last November was rigged Under-Secretary of State Thomas Pickering expressed deep out of the contest. concern about Liberia’s negative role in diamond and arms Before the 1997 elections, Taylor claimed to have 60,000 NPFL smuggling in Sierra Leone, adding that unless Taylor cut ties with fighters under his command (it was probably nearer 20,000); the the RUF, Washington would further downgrade its relations with pre-election peace deal said they would form the core of a new Monrovia and might impose sanctions. Travelling with US military national army, to be built under supervision by officers of the officers, Pickering also visited Accra, Freetown and Abuja. Last Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group month, the , the leading donor to Liberia, suspended (Ecomog). Once elected, Taylor said Liberia would form its own some US$50 million of development aid (AC Vol 41 No 13). army without advice from Ecomog and set up several security, Pickering was in Monrovia a day after a combined paramilitary and military organisations and sub-divisions - the team (Ghanaian, Indian and Nigerian troops) mounted a daring ubiquitous Anti-Terrorist Unit (ATU) at Robertsfield Airport and and successful operation planned by British Special Air Service other strategic locations; the State Security Service and State soldiers, to free 220 UN peacekeepers surrounded by the RUF. The Security Unit, an armed intelligence and surveillance service; the freeing of the hostages was a great morale boost for the UN National Security Agency headed by presidential relative Freddie peacekeepers and has taken away much of the RUF’s leverage. It 2 21 July 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 15 seems to have prompted RUF Commander Bockarie, with Taylor’s backing presumably, to call for renewed peace talks with Kabbah’s ZIMBABWE government. For almost a decade, the West ignored Taylor’s links with the RUF. Under last July’s Lomé peace accord for Sierra Leone, Taylor said he would use his good offices to rein in the RUF. Yet Multi-party Mugabe when the Sierra Leone peace deal fell apart in May, drawing in its The President has appointed some capable main Western sponsors, the USA and Britain, as well as the UN, the reformers but will he let them do the job? RUF’s Liberian backing came under greater scrutiny. Liberia was declared ineligible for donor funds except emergency humanitarian Real multi-party politics started raucously in Harare’s parliament aid and there was no more Western backing for International on 18 July, with both sides breaking into song after the election of Monetary Fund or World Bank programmes. former Justice Minister as Speaker of the House. For the first time in parliament’s history, there had to be a The donors’ strike in Monrovia formal election on 18 July for the speaker’s job. Mnangagwa won Taylor’s acolytes lash out at ‘Western sabotage’ of Liberia’s with 87 votes (which included the 30 members of parliament reconstruction programme. US aid, which goes to local non- nominated by President ) against 57 votes for the governmental organisations distributing food, has fallen to opposition Movement for Democratic Change’s candidate, Mike US$14 mn. this year from $36 mn. in 1998. The sufferers are Mataure. Then the Minister for Rural Resources and Water ordinary Liberians, most of whom voted for Taylor in 1997, Development, Joyce Mujuru, started singing loudly in Shona - hoping he would end the civil war and attract international ‘Zimbabwe ndeyeropa baba, Zimbabwe ndeyeropa remadzibaba’ funds. For them, the donor boycott of Liberia means economic (‘Zimbabwe’s freedom was won through bloodshed’). To this, the collapse. Taiwan, whose diplomats are treated like visiting MDC benches retorted, still in song: ‘ZANU yawora, ZANU yawora’ royalty, is the only significant bilateral donor, while Monrovia (‘ZANU is now rotten’). refuses to recognise the People’s Republic of . However, Mugabe’s government remake - nine new ministers Many Liberians complain (notably on Monrovia’s DC phone- out of 19 - shows that he’s kept his political acuity even after six in radio) that the government isn’t making good use of its tiny months of economically disastrous election campaigning (AC Vol national budget, some US$65 mn. this year. Taylor’s cronies 41 No 14). Among the new faces are three impressive technocrats are widely disliked and accused of misusing state resources; in the key economic portfolios of Finance, Industry and Agriculture. the allocation of US$26 mn. to repay war debts run up by his The issue is not what has to be done on economic reform, new NPFL army was particularly unpopular. Western security Finance Minister told a friend, but whether the sources say much of this money is channelled through Liberian- ministers will be allowed to do it. Makoni and the other two controlled accounts to Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi’s economic technocrats in government are unlikely to tough it out if government. too many political obstructions are put in their way. Ever tightening Liberians talk of ‘the regime’, meaning such people as the lines of credit mean that in the short term, the government has little presidential Financial Advisor (and Doe’s former Finance choice but to sue for peace with the international financial Minister), Emmanuel Shaw and the Chairman of the ruling institutions. Mugabe may have calculated that it’s better for the National Patriotic Party, Cyril Allen. By contrast, Taylor’s for unpopular policies to fall on technocrats rather than on ministers are often well respected, including Evelyn White- mainstream politicians. Kandakai (Education), Peter Coleman (Health) and Roland Massaquoi (Agriculture). Foreign Minister Monie Kaptan is Emmerson’s end-game not particularly popular but a skilled operator. The jury is out That also seems to have been Mnangagwa’s calculation. His bid on Finance Minister Nathaniel Barnes, whose limited for the Speaker’s chair was a gamble. His detailed knowledge of cooperation with the IMF may be stopped by a veto from the Presidency’s financial operations has made him a seemingly Washington. indispensable part of the hierarchy; his relations with Mugabe and Barnes must try to make sense of the tax system. Fuel, his senior military officers dates back to the earliest days of the imported from Côte d’Ivoire, is among the dearest in Africa: liberation war. Yet Mnangagwa is not popular among the Zimbabwe the importing company has a monopoly on supplies for the African National Union-Patriotic Front’s senior apparatchiks: they entire country and the pump price at $2.25 per US gallon defeated his bid for the party chairmanship last December, preferring includes port and transport levies plus a 25 per cent surcharge instead the more emollient . To get the Speaker’s for Taylor’s Special Presidential Projects. Ministers are unable chair, Mnangagwa had first to convince ZANU-PF MPs to back to show development projects which have benefited from SPP him against the previous parliament’s Speaker, Cyril Ndebele. funds; candidates for funding include electricity supply (the After failing to discipline a ZANU-PF MP who had called for rich use generators, the poor use oil lamps) and piped water Mugabe to quit, Ndebele incurred the President’s wrath. Mnangagwa (almost completely absent). had to lobby hard over the past week to ensure that Ndebele The lack of these basic services and of jobs make Taylor’s dropped out of the running this time. Insiders say Mugabe favoured government unpopular. Few want a return to civil war, even to Mnangagwa as tough-minded enough to keep the ZANU caucus in oust Taylor - the war in the 1990s took more than 150,000 lives line but nimble enough to cut the occasional deal with opposition and wrecked the economy. Yet without cross-border action to MDC members. stop the tit-for-tat rebellions, the present fighting in the north- A first hurdle for Mnangagwa will be to reply to MDC attempts east could escalate into an even more destructive war for all to have him prosecuted for alleged links to election violence in his three countries and for their neighbours. constituency, where he lost to the MDC’s little known 3 21 July 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 15

Blessing Chebundo, whose house was burned down three days Justice, Legal and Parliamentary Affairs. This makes him Leader before polling. If he survives that, his position will be more of the House. Historian stays on as Foreign powerful than it looks. He has Mugabe’s personal support and that Minister and he, like Mahachi, is frequently blamed for the of ZANU stalwarts such as Chen Chimutengwende, Oppa government’s diplomatic and strategic mistakes although he has Rushesha and Joyce Mujuru. He’s in touch with the new generation little effective power independently of the presidency. of Central Intelligence Organisation officers after his long stint as Mugabe’s shrewdest appointment was making Makoni Finance Security Minister in the 1980s - some are now ZANU MPs. Minister. This is the toughest post in government and there is no Intriguingly, Mnangagwa would be in line (alongside the two Vice- popular way to run the economy for the next year. Makoni has the Presidents, the elderly and ) to rare quality of being a trusted nationalist and a vigorously succeed Mugabe, if the leader quit before the next elections. Quite independent thinker. He has told friends openly that half-hearted how the temporary successor is selected from the three possible economic reform - austerity measures and devaluation without contenders under the existing constitution is unclear, although it supply-side support and an aggressively pro-growth strategy - stipulates that a new presidential election must be held within 90 would be disastrous. A successful independent businessman days of the head of state leaving office. Mnangagwa would almost (currently Chief Executive of computer company Distribution certainly have Mugabe’s backing as a temporary successor and Dynamics), Makoni isn’t hungry for political office. The main also for the ZANU-PF presidential ticket. puzzle is why he agreed to accept it - unless Mugabe guaranteed him a free hand on macro-economic policy. Blistering opposition attacks Makoni was Executive Secretary of the Southern African Friends of Mnangagwa say he wanted to be speaker rather than Development Community from 1984 to 1993, then head of the minister because it was ‘blameless’. Few ministers, especially the state-owned group. As a rising star in ZANU-PF and politically ambitious, are likely to emerge with much credit in the respected by Mugabe, his progress was hampered by antipathy 18-month run-up to the presidential poll, given the depth of the from old-guard politicians such as former Trade Minister Nathan economic crisis. They will come under blistering attack from Shamuyarira. Although Makoni boosted Zimpapers’ profits MDC MPs for mismanaging the economy and for corruption. In substantially, he was fired when he tried to sack Charles contrast, the speaker is notionally non-partisan and will have the Chikerema, a Mugabe relative and Editor of Harare’s daily The challenging task of making the new multi-party parliament work. Herald. Perhaps as Speaker, Mnangagwa may be able to reinvent himself The second economic technocrat is Nkosana Moyo at Industry as a man of compromise and put some distance between himself and International Trade. He was formerly head of Standard and the party’s failings. Chartered Bank in Zimbabwe before being posted to and His nearest rival in the succession race is John Nkomo, who has then . On his return, he started his own venture capital been moved from Local Government to the Home Affairs portfolio. company, Batanai, and is a director of several local companies. Local Government is a more powerful post because the minister is The third technocrat is , the new Minister of Lands, in charge of provincial governors (who have resident minister Agriculture and Rural Resettlement - now a highly sensitive post. status) and executive mayors, who also have high ranking in the He headed the Agricultural Development Authority and knows the party. This has helped Nkomo’s profile in ZANU, where he is seen land issue well as one of ADA’s main responsibilities was training as efficient and straight. Home Affairs, though powerful, is farmers and implementing rural development programmes. He problematic. The country’s worsening human rights record and the was involved in the negotiations for the 1998 agreement on land growing activism of local rights monitors mean Nkomo will redistribution and wants to ensure that production levels are immediately be under pressure to investigate . Like former maintained or increased under any resettlement programme. Home Affairs Minister , Nkomo risks alienating everyone, from ZANU zealots to liberal human rights activists. Sydney’s security move By the end of his tenure, Dabengwa was being regularly , probably third in line to succeed Mugabe, is overridden by National Police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri, now Mines and Energy Minister after twelve years at State Security. who was reporting directly to Mugabe. Nkomo is now leader of the is Transport and Communications Minister. Ndebele, who could push for him as Vice-President, perhaps to He has been in and out of government as deputy minister, Governor replace Msika, who is really Shona, although his history as a long- of Mashonaland West and, in the previous government, Minister of time resident of Matebeleland and leading light in the Ndebele- State for Planning in the Presidency. , another dominated Zimbabwe African People’s Union suggest otherwise. Mugabe favourite, has been promoted to Local Government from Nkomo’s popularity hasn’t been tested outside the party but there’s Higher Education. He was previously a provincial governor. little reason to suspect he would fare much better than any other The new Environment Minister, , is the late ZANU candidate in Matebeleland currently; that is, he would lose ’s son-in-law. He was a banker and founded the to the MDC. That will tell against his presidential ambitions. Zimbabwe Building Society, which spearheaded an effective mass stays at Defence, though he is seen as largely housing programme. Tourism has been hit by the political ructions, ceremonial. The Commander, with bookings dropping by 80 percent. Joyce Mujuru retained her Lieutenant General , Air Force Commander, post at Rural Resources and Water Development. One of the Air Marshall Perence Shiri, and Army Commander, Gen. longest-serving ministers, she is the only woman in cabinet. Herbert Constantine Chiwenga, report directly to Mugabe, while Mahachi Murerwa has been demoted from Finance to Higher Education and shoulders the blame for mistakes, such as Zimbabwe’s strategy in Technology. Education, Sport and Culture is under new-comer Congo- (AC Vol 41 No 12). , whose , who has spent his professional life as a legal reputation was being eroded by the political pressures on his civil servant in the Education Ministry. office, has been promoted from Attorney General to Minister of , Governor of Midlands in the last government, is 4 21 July 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 15 now Minister of Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare, where catching displays at the Algiers Fair. he was Permanent Secretary before his appointment as Governor. Abroad, Bouteflika basks in his status as elder statesman. , once a diplomat in Bulgaria and China, and Algerians took note last month when he became the first President former Secretary for Foreign Affairs, now takes charge of to visit since Chadli Bendjedid in the 1980s. President intelligence as Minister of State in the Department of National Jacques Chirac and Premier Lionel Jospin’s government rolled Security. , the ZANU-PF spin-doctor in the out the red carpet and Bouteflika emphasised his range of contacts, constitutional referendum and the elections, has been rewarded as from the political class to Club Mediterranée founder Gilbert Minister in Charge of State Information and Publicity. A former Trigano, whom he greeted as an old friend (and host on holidays lecturer and Ford Foundation Director, Moyo has a fellowship at past) and invited to set up a tourism complex in Algeria. Other the University of Witwatersrand, South Africa, which he will have hotel companies, notably America’s Starwood, holder of the to renounce. Sheraton franchise, and France’s Accor, have already moved in. , who headed the farm seizures and opposition Algeria’s renewed international presence has boosted in Mashonaland Central, where ZANU had a clean confidence. The Organisation of African Unity Presidency saw sweep in the polls, has been rewarded with the Youth Development Foreign Affairs Minister Youcef Yousfi travel the world, pushing and Employment Creation portfolio. He was previously Governor Algerian interests and a new African debt relief package. Once of Mashonaland Central and ZANU-PF Chief Whip in Parliament. Premier and now Minister of State for Justice, the ubiquitous Matebeleland Governor Welshman Mabhena, blamed for ZANU’s Ahmed Ouyahia took a leading role in brokering the truce between defeat in the province, has been replaced by , former and . deputy Minister of Industry and Commerce. July Moyo has been Bouteflika’s deep knowledge of Arab politics and wide contacts replaced by as Governor of Midlands. Newcomer permeate his political discourse. He sometimes looks remote from and former Ambassador to replaces Gezi Algerians’ daily concerns and his tendency to speak from the hip as Mashonaland Central Governor. becomes can complicate things. The US government, courting Algeria, was the first woman Governor, in Manicaland. startled to hear his plea for the lifting of sanctions on Iraq and Libya. Bouteflika missed seeing US Treasury Under-Secretary Stuart Eizenstat, architect of a US-Maghreb free trade scheme, ALGERIA when he visited in June; the President had proposed including Libya in such a plan. Yet Bouteflika’s charisma and status in the Arab world have led the USA and others to ask for his support in The Bouteflika paradox the Middle East peace process. He made contact with Israel, claiming Premier Ehud Barak was a man with whom Arabs could The President has gained a grip on power but do business. Nevertheless, when a group of Algerian journalists disturbs liberals and power-brokers and academics visited Israel in June, he publicly sprayed them with Abdelaziz Bouteflika has consolidated his power, exploiting the vitriol. public’s longing for peace to give substance to his presidency (AC Some security taboos have been overcome. The powerful Chief Vol 41 No 4). However, an upsurge in Islamist violence and social of Staff, Lieutenant General Mohamed Lamari, has met French tensions suggests that the mercurial President, who has several Rear Admiral Paul Habert and commanders of the visiting US times threatened to resign, faces difficulties in the coming months. Sixth Fleet. The French and US navies have conducted His amnesty for the Armée Islamique du Salut, the armed wing unprecedented joint exercises with the Algerian forces, which had of the banned Front Islamique du Salut, worried many Algerians. long shunned formal contacts. Such ties must be on Bouteflika’s Questions remain unanswered, about the ‘disappeared’ and other terms, though. victims of the violent 1990s when, Bouteflika now says, 100,000 Bouteflika is willing to play the populist card and, unlike recent Algerians died. Protests by groups of veiled women, the ‘mothers presidents (bar Mohamed Boudiaf, assassinated in 1992), he of the disappeared’, continue in Algiers, echoing the protests speaks directly and often to the people. He will soon whip up which haunted South American military juntas after their years of nationalist sentiment to back another referendum, this time to ‘dirty war’. Coupled with military offensives against remaining extend the presidential powers. His critics complain that this Islamist strongholds, the amnesty has restored an uneasy peace suggests limits to his commitment to pluralism and Western outside the areas where the Groupes Islamiques Armés and Hassan governments worry that political party development and freedom Hattab’s Dawa wal Jihad (Call and Combat) are active. Amnesty of expression aren’t moving much. for the many who avoided military service, often by staying near For all his public image, Bouteflika remains something of an home and away from the authorities, has reinforced the feeling of enigma. Once reputedly a ladies’ man, he now lives with his ‘normality’. mother in a quiet house in the capital’s chic Hydra neighbourhood. Foreigners are returning to Algiers itself, not just to the oil-rich Key economic aides, many with years spent abroad (notably in the Saharan fortresses where companies spend millions on security, USA), have made more noise than he among potential investors. enriching many Algerian officers in the process. The return was Premier Ahmed Benbitour has disappointed those who thought he marked by a big turnout for the Algiers International Fair in June. would make a dynamic head of government. Talk of a reshuffle has With high oil prices this last year feeding into 1999’s US$5-billion reached a crescendo, with newspapers claiming that Benbitour will trade surplus and probably more in 2000, Algeria has regained its soon be replaced by Ouyahia or another Bouteflika ally. status as a sought-after export market, with Western business Economic policy will probably remain in the hands of a small lobbies pressing their governments for export credits and other group of presidential aides, now pushing yet another attempt to help. Having laid low during the violent 1990s, France, Germany, overhaul the state-dominated economy. Energy and Mines Minister the United States and other governments spent lavishly on eye- Chakib Khelil was brought back from two decades at the World

5 21 July 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 15

Bank, where he worked on Latin American energy privatisation. Bouteflika’s toughest task is to create a climate in which vested His jobs included restructuring Argentina’s oil industry (in which interests can pull back from dominating a liberalising economy and Spain’s Repsol eventually bought a controlling stake) and Bolivia, society. Many fear that the President may not be up to the next a model of ‘liberal’ reforms. Algeria’s state company Sonatrach is round of battles to shape the political future. slated to become an independent oil major, losing its regulatory powers to new state agencies. Its head, Abdelhak Bouhafs, is another key Bouteflika aide. SOUTH AFRICA Finance Minister Abdelatif Benachenhou is working with colourful Privatisation Minister Habib Temmar to reform the heavily indebted, crony-driven banking sector. It remains to be Talking left, acting right seen how fast the long-serving central bank Governor, Abdelwahab Keramane, moves; he has held onto foreign debt, investment and Social-democracy and free market other issues, and there are signs of turf wars over the pace of are eating into the ruling party’s identity change. The African National Congress has emerged from its national The Posts and Telecommunications Ministry under Mohamed general council, held in the coastal city of Port Elizabeth on 11-15 Maghlaoui is set for sweeping reform, leading to privatisation of July, looking more like the Western-style social democratic parties the telephone system and, within a year, an auction (with fierce that are its colleagues in the Socialist International. The ANC international competition) for a global system for mobiles (GSM) leadership deployed the grand rhetoric of its revolutionary past, but licence. Backing up this team is Interior Minister Noureddine more to sustain President Thabo Mbeki’s radical image than as a ‘Yazid’ Zerhouni, a former Ambassador to Washington and pointer to government policy. previously an aide to Bouteflika. He is expected to consolidate the Mbeki made it clear that he would not debate the most important President’s hold over the political arena, and undermine rival topic, economic strategy, and opened the national council by factions. boxing in the critics of his market-friendly policy for Growth, Zerhouni has blocked efforts by Bouteflika’s main rival for the Employment and Redistribution (Gear), most of them in his party’s presidency in 1999, ex-Foreign Minister Ahmed Taleb Ibrahimi, old allies, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) to legalise his opposition Wafa party. Zerhouni has implied that, and the South African Communist Party (SACP). In his keynote since Ahmed Taleb has links to the FIS, Wafa would allow the address, Mbeki gave the hundreds of delegates from all branches banned party in by the back door. FIS leaders are excluded from around the country a lecture which branded as economically illiterate any hint of power and the hard line has prompted even the leader anyone who insisted on challenging Gear, the centrepiece of his of the radical anti-Islamist Parti des Travailleurs, Louisa Hanoun, government’s policies (AC Vol 41 No 12). to call for easing of the tough prison regime imposed on FIS leader He pointed out that globalisation was an inescapable reality, Ali Belhadj. imposing obligations on any state intent on avoiding economic Other challengers to the mood of calm promoted by Boutef’s marginalisation; that this was apparent to anyone literate in group include the trades unions, though the leaders of the Union economics; and that Gear’s tough spending-and-lending regime Générale des Travailleurs Algériens remain acquiescent, apart was the price South Africa had to pay to remain a participant in the from statements made for public consumption. But labour disputes world economy. For the many left-wingers who like to help explain are multiplying, fuelled by concern that privatisation and events by reference to intrigue he added, condescendingly: ‘We corporatisation will cost thousands of jobs. Security forces put also have to understand that there is nobody in the world who down demonstrations at the huge and potentially doomed El formed a secret committee to conspire to impose globalisation on Hadjer steelworks, invoking the State of Siege decree, in force an unsuspecting humanity’. since the dark days of the early 1990s. Bouteflika has shown no On macroeconomics at least, the President pulls no punches. inclination to lift this decree, which allows the government to ban Mbeki went on to lecture the listening trades union activists and protests. This has added to pressure on the already divided workers on how strikes could discourage investment and how opposition, of which the most vocal party, the Front des Forces changing technology requires creative responses from ‘stakeholders’ Socialistes (FFS), is severely weakened by internal divisions and in industry - messages South African workers, like their European the ageing of its historic leader, Hocine Aït Ahmed. counterparts in the 1980s, are reluctant to embrace. Security has improved but the killing continues, with dozens of Cosatu and SACP leaders politely avoided comment. In a people murdered each week. Some 1,500-3,000 Islamist fighters document distributed for discussion at its August conference, remain in the maquis, squeezed by the security forces and by recent Cosatu describes relations between the three allies as in ‘crisis’. It cross-border operations involving Moroccan or Tunisian forces. confessed to having very little influence over the ANC, which itself The military’s leading role therefore continues. A reshuffle of the had little say over government policy, adding that cabinet ministers top brass has replaced several key appointees of former President and civil servants had too much autonomy from the party. Because Liamine Zeroual but Lamari, security chief Mohamed ‘Tawfik’ Mbeki has centralised power in government, rather than in the Medienne and his heir-apparent, Smain Lamari, still have party, Cosatu’s leaders are angry at their marginalisation. The considerable power. Retired officers, including the ailing Gen. union confederation’s conference is expected to hear renewed calls Mohamed Attailia, brought in to help broker talks with the for a final break with the ANC and the formation of a workers’ Islamists after years out of the limelight, still carry a real punch in party. Nothing much is likely to come of this, since left-wingers in politics and business. While Boutef and many of his key ministers the union movement and the SACP cannot agree on whether to come from the extreme west, military and other power-brokers remain allied with the ANC. from the Chaouia and eastern region continue to vie for power. The ANC council called for increased party influence over Clan loyalties and interest groups die hard. government policy, facilitated by a new party policy institute. Yet 6 21 July 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 15

Mbeki is extremely unlikely to allow any significant encroachment cause AIDS. His government’s strategy for containing the infection on the government’s authority. He believes that policies from the is chaotic and Mbeki did nothing to put it right in his opening revolutionary past, although popular with party activists, may not address to a World AIDS conference in Durban, a few days before be best for the country. For example, over the past two months he the ANC’s national general council. His speech made him a target has been stoutly backing his Education Minister, , of ridicule by scientists, commentators and cartoonists, which the formerly a law professor in Ireland, who upset ANC activists (and hypersensitive President has difficulty coping with and which some cabinet colleagues) by overhauling a system of ‘outcomes- earned him a barely veiled rebuke from his predecessor, Nelson based’ education (less emphasis on examinations or learning by Mandela, who closed the AIDS conference on 14 July. Mandela rote) introduced by his predecessor, , now called for an end to theoretical disagreements about the aetiology Ambassador to Germany. Bengu’s plan for continuous assessment of HIV/AIDS and for immediate action. Mbeki’s pseudo-scientific had popular appeal but proved unworkable with limited teaching argument about AIDS was his first big error of judgment in his year resources. as President and he has failed to backtrack or to finesse the blunder. If Mbeki allows a party policy institute to be formed, he will put He was made to look irrational even by the emotionally and it under close supervision by the leadership. The scheme will politically erratic Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, Mandela’s ex- probably come to nothing, though, and anyway the national general wife, who made one of her habitual attacks on the government, this council has no power to change policy. It was agreed upon at the time for its inactivity and for being, as she put it, an ‘obedient ANC’s Mafikeng conference in 1997 to review the party’s progress servant to the multinational companies that continue to put profits and failings half-way through its five-year cycle of full-blown above our people’. conferences. ‘Thabo’s attitude at a meeting like this seems to be: Madikizela-Mandela had already given Lekota notice that she “Let the children talk and shout, and we’ll get on with the business would not to attend the ANC conference. Although an MP and of government”, one senior member of parliament remarked. President of the ANC Women’s League, she has not been seen in parliament this year and is increasingly detached from the party. Economic disjunctures She stayed away from the council; she had to attend the Truth and Mbeki’s views on economics are not shared with any enthusiasm Reconciliation Commission for an amnesty application by her by three of the ANC’s top six leaders. The national President is former bodyguard, Jerry Richardson, for the murder in January also party President. He can rely on support for Gear from the 1989 of a 14-year-old Soweto child, Stompie Moeketse Seipei. Minister of Defence, Mosioua (formerly Patrick) ‘Terror’ Lekota, She has been convicted of involvement in Seipei’s abduction, and party Treasurer Mendi Msimang, once High Commissioner in shortly before his death. London. ANC Deputy President , who is also national Winnie was Mbeki’s target when he said: ‘We all know that Deputy President, leans more strongly leftward, as do Secretary there are opponents of the movement working within the movement, General and Deputy Secretary General who... make the same claims as those made by our opponents, that Thenjiwe Mtintso. Zuma and Motlanthe used to be members of as a movement we are not doing anything to address the interests the SACP and Mtintso is still a senior member. of the people.’ In his long report to the council, Motlanthe listed Recently, as foreign capital flowed out of the Johannesburg symptoms of chaos and organisational breakdown in the Women’s Stock Exchange and the rand was hammered on foreign exchange League. These attacks should make Winnie’s position untenable. markets (largely because of Zimbabwe’s troubles, AC Vol 41 No Yet her apparent immunity undermines the leadership’s insistence 14), Motlanthe, a former Robben Island prisoner and leader of the on discipline. Much of Mbeki’s and Motlanthe’s addresses were National Union of Mineworkers, told a Cosatu rally that workers taken up with the need to develop thousands of dutiful, should learn fervently to ‘hate capitalism’. Motlanthe has been incorruptible party cadres. Yet the many appeals for high- energetically seeking publicity but he, Zuma and Mtintso have all minded motivation heard by the national general council seemed been outpointed by Mbeki intellectually and politically. Senior to reflect another sort of discomfort among some delegates, at ANC members, both left and right, worry about the fundamental how quickly they have grown accustomed to power and privilege, economic differences at the top of their party. But no serious and how fully they are coming to resemble the ‘bourgeois’ challenge to Mbeki is foreseeable. social democratic parties that, just a few years ago, they claimed Within government, Mbeki has like-minded allies in Trevor so loudly to despise. Manuel, Finance Minister, and , Trade and Industry Minister, who is thought to have contributed to the economic Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com lecture in Mbeki’s opening address. Other cabinet ministers who Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at work on aspects of restructuring - privatisation (, 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. SACP Politbureau member and Public Enterprise Minister), civil Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. service restructuring and downsizing (Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi, Administration: Clare Tauben. SACP Deputy Chairperson and Public Service and Administration Minister) and labour-market deregulation (Membathisi Annual subscriptions, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: UK: £278 Europe: £278 Mdladlana, former trades unionist and Minister of Labour) have Africa: £258 US:$697 (including Airmail) mastered the routine of talking left and acting right. Their Rest of the World: £361 convictions are unclear, although they are neither sufficiently left- Students (with proof): £79 or US$126 All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept wing, nor sufficiently strong, to put their heads above the parapet. American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. There may be Trojan horses in the SACP’s elite ranks. Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 Mbeki has exposed himself to the critics by his strange courtship 1FH England. Tel: 44 1865 244083 and Fax: 44 1865 381381 of scientific dissidents who claim either that the human immuno- Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. ISSN 0044-6483 deficiency virus (HIV) does not exist or, if it does, that is does not 7 21 July 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 15

Equatorial Guinea. Exxon Mobil is completing Pointers ZAMBIA a US$1.2 billion development programme, while USA’s Triton Energy, which with its South African partner Energy Africa discovered the CÔTE D’IVOIRE Cash yes, reform? La Ceiba field, plans to start production in 2001. Last month, the Overseas Private Promises of dollops of money at the Consultative Investment Corporation (OPIC) approved $373 Moving goalposts Group meeting in on 16-18 July (AC mn. in guarantees and insurance for the General Robert Gueï’s junta aims to set up a Vol 41 No 14) dispelled fears that Finance construction of a methanol plant on Bioko. The civilian regime before the end of the year, but is Minister Katele Kalumba was about to be axed. $300 mn. plant, to be built by Raytheon, will be not even in full control of its own army. The The cash could also strengthen Zambia’s few run by a consortium of two US companies, referendum on a new constitution, due on 23 July, reformers. Donors have privately said they’ll Samedan Oil and CMS Energy. Under the takes place in the shadow of a mutiny on 4-5 July. try to ensure that moderates, led by Kalumba OPIC agreement, the operators have to abide by It caused at least four deaths; 35 soldiers have and Legal Affairs Minister Vincent Malambo, International Labour Organisation standards been arrested and will face a military tribunal on benefit as Zambia prepares for next year’s for local workers, a condition insisted on by the 19-28 July on charges ranging from plotting against elections. Malambo, regarded as competent if State Department’s Human Rights bureau whose state security to theft and pillage. At the height of authoritarian, was uneasy about non- recent report on noted that the mutiny, Gen. Gueï took shelter in the barracks governmental organisations taking part for the ‘the of workers’ rights is a particular of the para-military gendarmerie, which speaks first time. problem in the oil industry’. How these human volumes about his standing among his fellow Conspicuously absent was Eric Silwamba, rights conditions will be monitored is unclear. army officers. The most popular officer, Colonel Minister in the President’s Office, once touted Since Washington closed its embassy in Malabo Mathias Doué, doesn’t want to rock the boat now by President Frederick Chiluba as his successor in the mid-1990s, a Yaoundé-based diplomat and played a key role in cooling down the but now seen as on his way out. Also absent visits Malabo monthly, hardly enough resources for mutineers. were some hardliners - Michael Sata (Minister the detailed human rights assessments envisaged. Some civilians face the civil courts, charged without Portfolio), Nkando Luo with looting and assault during the mutiny. The (Communications and Transport) and Ben military prosecutor, Ange Kessi Kouami, said Mwila (Environment and Natural Resources, OAU the court had decided to act fast, but there was no who was expelled from the governing Movement question of the death penalty. for Multi-party Democracy (MMD) on 8 July). The accused include eight army officers and six Donors pledged US$1 billion, with most tying Unity Gadaffi-style non-commissioned officers (NCOs). The local US$355 million balance-of-payments support press has named two colonels formerly in to governance and anti-corruption benchmarks. African unity was not much advanced when the command of FIRPAC, a parachute special forces Japan avoided mentioning the pervasive Organisation of African Unity met in Lomé last unit. In the pro-government media several corruption and human rights abuses that had week. The host was ’s controversial executives of the state television company, and of dominated discussions; Denmark, as ever, President Gnassingbé Eyadéma backed by the daily Fraternité-Matin, have been sacked. spoke out against . Reformers are relieved Libya’s even more controversial Colonel Three writers for Le Libéral, a daily associated at the departure of the World Bank’s much Moammar el Gadaffi, (who contributed 70 with Alassane Dramane Ouattara’s criticised Phyllis Pomerantz, who seemed blind billion CFA francs (US$103 million), of the FF Rassemblement des Républicains, were questioned to Lusaka’s abuses. Yet new Country Director CFA100 bn. forecast costs). Last year, Gadaffi and roughed up by the security forces. Four RDR Michael Sarris raised eyebrows by privately launched a plan for an all-Africa government, officials, including its number three, Amadou asking donors not to expect too much of Zambia which he evidently wants to head; at Lomé, it Gon Coulibaly, were also questioned on suspicion since it took the Western world 300 years to was clear that South Africa, Nigeria, , of attempted destabilisation, but released without achieve democracy. Algeria and - the big league, in fact - charge after 48 hours; they claimed that Gen. Gueï weren’t going to line up with their host or his had strong suspicions about ex-President Henri EQUATORIAL GUINEA backer. Konan Bédié. The Gadaffi agenda overwhelmed substantive So far the only evidence of a political plot is discussion, enlivened by intrigues around a ten- that Gueï says there was one. The ostensible Call the ex-marines person Israeli delegation, anxious to stop the leader of the mutiny, Quartermaster Alain Kakou, Washington’s State Department has just OAU expressing solidarity with the Palestine insisted that its aims were purely military, and the approved an application by the Virginia-based Liberation Organisation, and an Iranian United States Ambassador, George Mu - who Military Professional Resources Inc. (MPRI) delegation trying to arrange an African tour for has publicly opposed the idea that Gueï might for a licence to assess Equatorial Guinea’s President Mohamed Khatami. stand for president - reckoned that the mutiny was requirements for a coast guard to defend its More substantial progress on Africa’s mainly about pay. increasingly valuable territorial waters. The conflicts and regional crises was hampered After the mutiny, all members of Gueï’s civilian approval comes two years after MPRI’s initial because several states, such as and cabinet resigned, and one of the General’s legal application to overhaul Equatorial Guinea’s Congo-Kinshasa, boycotted the summit in advisers, Thia Koni, was made President of the military establishment was rejected by the State protest at Eyadéma’s involvement in trading Supreme Court, which must rule on the eligibility Department’s Africa and Human Rights bureaus. arms and diamonds with Angolan rebel leader of candidates for the presidential election, whose The more modest proposal was approved Jonas Savimbi, as alleged by Canada’s first round is due on 17 September. The court will after much internal wrangling at the State Ambassador to the United Nations, Robert be ruled by the constitution and, just five days Department and personal assurances by MPRI’s Fowler in his sanctions investigation. Delegates before the referendum, the ruling junta changed chief executive, former Defence Intelligence were discouraged from discussing at length one crucial word in the draft text. The former draft Agency Director Ret. General Harry Soyster, conflicts in and , yet they agreed stated that presidential candidates must have been that any assessment on training would include to send a heads of state delegation to Côte born to an Ivorian father or mother, the new draft instruction on human rights. The assessment d’Ivoire to mediate in the growing confrontation specifies an Ivorian father and mother. This is will be made after a visit by US Coast Guard between presidential aspirant Alassane clearly aimed to exclude the main opposition Ret. Admiral Richard Applebaum in August. Dramane Ouattara and military leader General would-be candidate, Ouattara. There are big US investments at stake in Robert Gueï. 8