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ZANU- PF's Strategies in Zimbabwe The London School of Economics and Political Science Campaigning, Coercion, and Clientelism: ZANU- PF’s strategies in Zimbabwe’s presidential elections, 2008-13 McDonald Lewanika A thesis submitted to the Department of Government of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, December 2019 1 DECLARATION I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 101,684 words . 2 ABSTRACT This thesis engages the puzzle of why competitive authoritarian regimes campaign when they could achieve their desired ends through violence, electoral manipulation and other illicit strategies to retain power. It uses Zimbabwe’s ruling party - the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front’s (ZANU- PF) election in the run-up to the 2008 and 2013 presidential campaigns. The thesis bases its analysis on the classification of constituencies into three main types: ZANU-PF-aligned constituencies (ZACs), opposition-aligned constituencies (OACs), and battleground constituencies (BCs). It identifies an overarching strategic logic behind ZANU-PF’s campaigning in 2008 and 2013 as a risk mitigation strategy against its loss of power and legitimacy. ZANU-PF pursued this broad strategy through attempting to maximise votes and voter turnout for itself while achieving the inverse for the opposition, i.e. minimizing its vote and turnout. I argue that ZANU-PF achieved its strategic logics through the deployment of combinations of seemingly competing strategies that included persuasion, intimidation, and clientelist inducements, deployed differently across space, depending on constituency type. I also argue that ZANU-PF implemented a spatially variegated strategy of mobilising its core-constituents (especially in 2008) and chasing more independent voters (especially in 2013). The differences in strategic thrust between 2008 and 2013 suggest that contrary to popular analysis, ZANU-PF was a learning organisation, adept at adapting its strategies over time and space to preserve power as well as enhance its legitimacy. The thesis employs a nested subnational comparative analysis research design, which combines nested analysis (Lieberman, 2005) and the subnational comparative method (Snyder, 2001). It combines descriptive statistics with detailed qualitative description in analysis of presidential election campaigns at the national and subnational level. 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS In both literal and figurative terms, I started my PhD journey late. At 35, I was the oldest candidate in my PhD cohort by some distance and I had delayed joining the program by over three weeks. My first weeks, having missed two weeks of class, suffering from imposter syndrome, intimidated by the LSE’s exacting standards and not knowing how I was going to finance my program for four years, were tough. It was a blessing then that in these early days and throughout my PhD journey, Professor Catherine Boone and Dr Omar McDoom, who constituted my supervisory team, went over and above the call of duty to ensure that my journey not only started but would also end, successfully. I owe these two academics a great intellectual debt for their academic mentorship, guidance and support. I was never an easy student, and never really felt like a student proper, but their patience and skilful alternation at playing academic “good cop/bad cop” made sure that my journey continued and as best as possible on time. Beyond this dutiful academic support, Professor Boone particularly went beyond the call of duty to ensure that I had fewer worries than I would ordinarily have had if left to my own devices. For this, I am grateful not just to her but also to her husband, Peter Trubowitz, their family and their legendary December parties. In the Department of Government, I was lucky to count on the support of the PhD Program Director, Professor Kai Spiekerman. Kai is an excellent teacher and empathetic leader, who patiently paid attention to my peculiar challenges and assisted as best he could from the Director’s chair. Together with Joachim Wehner, he took me and others through our research design paces during our MRes and proffered comments that would strength my project for the three years post-MRes. I also wish to thank Dr Laura Mann from ID, Paul Mitchell, Steffen Hertog, and Professor Panizza from the Government department. Professors Panizza and Mitchell, in particular, provided teaching opportunities on their courses that not only enhanced my training as a scholar but also provided me with some of the most enjoyable and memorable encounters of my PhD Journey. I loved teaching at the LSE, and I thank the various IR210 and GV245 students for trusting me and my teaching process, as I trusted them. These students surpassed the minimum requirement of the LSE, to be smart, and were engaged, challenging and most importantly, fun. I look forward to their futures with pride and I was privileged to cross paths with them during my journey. 4 My studies benefitted from generous support from the LSE Government Department. For this, I thank Professor Boone, Dr McDoom and Dr Spiekermann for not only understanding, but often supporting and having to make my case for funding from the school. I also benefitted from generous support for my fieldwork from the Sir Patrick Gillam Fund. This support went a long way in supporting an ambitious data gathering process across five provinces in Zimbabwe. What the LSE didn’t cover, my friends in Zimbabwe covered through grants, gifts and work. Here, I pay special tribute to Rodrick Fayayo and his team at the Bulawayo Progressive Residents Association. Fayoyo provided me with guides in Bulawayo and Matebeleland South. I would especially like to thank Alfred Dube, Phillani and Fuzwayo. To them, I owe so much, and I know that some people wouldn’t have opened their doors had it not been for them. I also want to thank Mr Machisa of ZimRights who placed his organisation’s provincial chairpersons at my disposal to facilitate access in Mount Darwin and Goromonzi. Deep gratitude is also owed to Shepard Utsiwegota, my “landlord” in Harare as well as Jimmy Wilford, Beloved Chiweshe and Briggs Bomba, who between them always made sure that I had roofs over my head and transport for my fieldwork. Jan Stuckats, Nikolai Schultes, Jarred Finnegan, Michael Mbate and Yeuzhou Yang were amazing company, colleagues and friends. I especially thank Jan, our student-staff liaison representative for effective representation and being kind enough to connect me to a few beneficial opportunities. Outside my peers, I was lucky to have the friendship and support of Stephan Kyburz (an amazing singer who is also responsible for the maps in this thesis) and my “Oxford boys”, Dr Arnold Chamunogwa, Dr Dan Hodgkinson, Dr Alex Noyes and Dr Simukai Chigudu. These comrades were always ready to engage and input on my ideas although in the end none received the always promised but never sent complete written work. I would also like to thank Dr Nicole Beardsworth, Thabani Nyoni, Dr Portia Roelofs, Dr Sarah Rich-Dorman, and Dominic Perreira, who engaged in various aspects of this project sometimes through panels they convened and beyond. Away from the academy, I have Professor Brain Raftopoulos, Thoko Matche, Thabani Nyoni, Samukheliso Khumalo, Grace Chirenje, Mfundo Mlilo, Okay Machisa and Jonah Gokova to thank. These people formed the leadership of the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition during my last days as Director there. They were 5 all supportive in a time of serious personal, political and professional turmoil, and I owe them enormous moral debts for their support during my transition. I could also always count on the wisdom and counsel of some great humans. In particular, Messers Arnold Tsunga, Deprose Muchena, Jacob Mafume, and Isaac Maphosa and Mrs Perpetua Bganya were always there during times when the future was too intimidating to look to because I thought it was too dark. They always reminded me that the future was difficult to look at not because it was too dark, but because it was too bright. My essential pillars during my PhD journey were always my friends and family. I wouldn’t give up any of them for a king’s ransom. Washington Katema, Sekuru Ishu, Natalie Tegama, Briggs Bomba, Stan Mhembere, Hugo Knopert, Brighton Mavhusa, Boni Tsuro, Arnold Chamunogwa, Innocent Kasiyano, Sherry Tapfuma, Jimmy Wilford, Delta Ndou, Otto Saki, Eilene Gbago , Cleto Manjova, Tino Mapemba , Daisy Mbutho, Tapera Kapuya, Carter Muchada, Tor Hugne Olsen, Michael Mabwe, Simba Moyo, Rutendo Chabikwa, Maureen Kademaunga, Mfundo Mlilo, Beloved &Vimbai Chiweshe, Simukai Tinhu, Amina Khan, Sophia Gallina, Lucy Mazingi, Rumbi Dube, Itai Zimunya, Muzukuru Tafadzwa, Mo Mhemebere, Tinotenda Orbon,Trish Tsuro, Yvone Mapemba, Masimba Nyamanhindi, Joy Mabenge, and many others who always checked in and assisted to keep me sane and on task over four years. Without the love, support and practical solidarity of my family, I wouldn’t have started this journey at all. My thanks go first to the two people I owe the most financially and emotionally, Captain Daniel Muchakwana (Mukoma Dani) and the mother of my son and great friend, Dr Fortunate Machingura. Words will never be enough to express my gratitude for the earth moving feats they performed.
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