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Home , Arthur Mutambara, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Fay Chung, Margaret Dongo, Simba Makoni, Welshman Ncube

CRISIS REPORTS

Issue 24 MARCH 2008 Fresh insights into the Zimbabwean situation

OPPOSITION PRONOUNCES DEATH OF TALKS WITH RULING PARTY

While the Movement for Democratic Change blames the authorities for derailing negotiations, some observers say the opposition should be focusing on election campaigning rather than fighting unwinnable battles.

By Meshack Ndodana in

Zimbabwe’s opposition Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, has formally declared that its talks with the ruling ZANU-PF have failed.

At a February 21 press conference in Credit: Lazele Johannesburg, both factions of the MDC chairman addresses the press at party headquarters in Harare. MDC made it clear the mediation Picture taken in April 2007. process, led by South African president on behalf of The MDC formally declared President Robert Mugabe on January the Southern African Development the talks dead because the 25 unilaterally proclaimed March 29 as Community, SADC, had died a death the date for presidential, parliamentary because of the Zimbabwean March election date had and local elections. government’s preemptive move to call derailed attempts to ensure elections before measures to ensure a free and fair vote. The negotiations were initiated by the they were free and fair could be put in SADC in March last year to ease place. political tensions between ZANU-PF and the MDC and to try to reverse Although the election date was the Zimbabwe’s eight-year economic subject of the SADC-led negotiations, decline.

NEWS IN BRIEF Zimbabwean presidential hopeful a rally aimed at boosting support surgical operations due to a lack of said on February 25 before elections next month. anaesthetics and equipment as the he would not form a coalition with country’s general economic the main faction of the opposition MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai has breakdown worsens. Movement for Democratic Change, launched his faction’s campaign MDC, led by Morgan Tsvangirai. He programme, which will see him The state broadcaster has stopped has, however, already formed a criss-cross the country until election carrying radio and television public- loose alliance with the other MDC day on March 29. service spots produced by the faction, led by . Zimbabwe Election Support Network, Zimbabwe’s biggest state-run a civil society group which deployed President Robert Mugabe celebrated hospital, Parirenyatwa hospital in thousands of election monitors in the his 84th birthday on February 23 at Harare, has stopped performing 2005 general election.

MARCH 2008 1 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING

The secretary-generals of the two The request for a delay was brushed failed to produce tangible results in MDC factions, and aside by Mugabe, who said the MDC terms of creating a conducive , who led their respective had known as early as last year that the atmosphere for free and fair delegations in the negotiations, said in elections were scheduled for March. He elections.” a joint statement that the election date said the opposition was preoccupied “lay at the heart of the deadlock” in with internal rivalries, and was seeking Political analysts who spoke to IWPR the talks with ZANU-PF. to shift the blame for its lack of criticised the MDC for expending so preparedness onto the government. much energy on matters that were The MDC said ZANU-PF had already impossible to change, such as “reneged” on a number of transitional the election date. mechanisms that had been agreed at the talks, while Mugabe’s One commentator based at the announcement of a firm date was a President Mugabe accused said the sign the party had “repudiated the the MDC of using the opposition needed to get into gear principles and the spirit of the election date as a pretext and prepare for the elections. dialogue”. to divert attention from its “At the core of the deadlock were own lack of preparedness. issues of the date of the election, the time-frame for the implementation of Best thing for MDC is now the agreed reforms, and the process to mount “a vigorous and manner of the making and The MDC said Mbeki met Mugabe in campaign” for the election enactment of a new constitution,” said Zimbabwe as late as January 15 to try the statement. to break the deadlock over the — Harare-based analyst. election date, including a proposal to push back the elections to as late as 2010. Mugabe is said to have rejected this, insisting the election date was “The best they can do for themselves ZANU-PF has “repudiated “non-negotiable”. He also rejected the is to mount a vigorous campaign for the principles and the spirit idea of a new constitution, which the their supporters to vote,” said the of the dialogue” — MDC MDC had said should be in place analyst, who did not want to be statement before the elections to level the named. He said it would be “suicidal” playing field. for the MDC to contemplate a boycott this late in the day, pointed out that “there are already other smaller parties and individuals ready to take the During the talks, the two sides had MDC’s place”. reached agreement on amendments MDC to take part in the to electoral, security and media ballot under protest. Another political analyst said the MDC laws, a draft constitution, and issues should be focusing on the electoral to do with violence, sanctions, land, process and specifically the and food aid. The MDC had called “command centre” in charge of for the elections to be put off to a running the ballot. later date to allow these The statement made clear that the arrangements to take root and gain MDC would participate in the “This is where the results will be public acceptance. elections, but only under protest, and decided,” he said. “The MDC is concluded by warning, “Tragically, the wasting time focusing on dates and This view stands in stark contrast to results of the... elections will be talks which have already failed. The Mbeki’s claim that the date was a contested.” voting will be done in Zimbabwe and peripheral procedural matter. In the that is where rigging will takes place if opposition’s view, the timing of the The MDC’s scathing comments came the opposition loses its focus.” election and the reforms that should as the Zimbabwe Christian Alliance, precede it were “not matters of ZCA, a network of church and civic The two MDC factions had, he said, procedure but of substance”, as bodies, announced that it had lost “weakened their position and holding the vote too early would hope in the talks. squandered public sympathy by failing prevent other agreements being to unite to fight a single common implemented, and consequently “the The ZCA blamed the failure of the enemy”. dialogue would therefore not have talks on what it called “a lack of clear resulted in the resolution of the objectives and accountability on the Meshack Ndodana is the pseudonym Zimbabwe crisis”. part of those involved. The SADC talks of an IWPR contributor in Harare.

2 ISSUE 24 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS MUGABE DEFIES DOWNFALL PROPHECIES

President continues to confound those who believe the odds are stacked against him remaining in office much longer.

By Nonthando Bhebhe in Harare

While the vast majority of Zimbabweans are struggling to survive, President Robert Mugabe still has a strong support base which is willing to risk everything, including their lives and businesses, to ensure that the octogenarian leader remains

in power. Credit: Lazele Delegates at the ZANU-PF congress sing the praises of President Mugabe. Though many have prophesised his Picture taken December 14. imminent demise, Mugabe has remained resolute and continues to officials suspected of favouring his “There is a realistic chance that defy conventional political wisdom. ouster have risked alienation from someone among the delegates or one grassroots supporters, who see them of the provinces could come up with a Predicting Mugabe’s downfall is a risky as traitors trying to destroy the proposal that he remains the party’s business. When many people, liberation movement party. presidential candidate,” said Mutasa. including local and international “He has done so many wonderful observers, thought he had lost control Many people have wondered why and things for this country and its majority of his party and would not be how Mugabe has continued to survive, population and he is not showing any endorsed as its presidential candidate considering the country’s deepening signs of tiredness. So if it is raised, as in next month’s elections, he has poverty and economic crisis. I am sure it will be, why not?” proved that he still had unwavering support from his comrades. That is the general feeling among Mugabe’s staunch supporters, who are Constitutional Lovemore quick to laugh off any suggestions that Madhuku told IWPR that Mugabe’s Best thing for MDC is now this election might signal the end of supporters were not imaginary. to mount “a vigorous his 28-year rule. “Mugabe still has a lot of supporters campaign” for the election But what has he done to make his and if you look at the election trend, — Harare-based analyst. supporters want to declare him life you will find that he has maintained the president? same number over the last three elections. I also meet with [the ruling Mugabe has created so much fear party] ZANU-PF — he has a lot of among his people that no one has the supporters, like it or not. The support , the powerful national guts to stand up to him face-to-face. he has is real and not fiction.” security minister and ZANU-PF’s secretary for administration, said in No one, said one ZANU-PF politburo Despite resentment of Mugabe’s early December that Mugabe had member, would dare to stand up and prolonged stay in power mounting done “so many wonderful things” for register his or her opposition for fear of among senior ZANU-PF officials, they Zimbabwe that it was likely that reprisals — as happened in 1998 to have not managed to remove him from delegates to the party conference Dzikamai Mavhaire, a feisty politician the helm of the party. In fact, party would appoint him president for life. from the southern Zimbabwe town of

MARCH 2008 3 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING

Masvingo, who moved a motion in The official said Mugabe has IWPR met with a group of ten such parliament calling for a review of the undoubtedly used the confusion he businesspeople at an exclusive club, constitution and advocated limited created over the succession issue to where they were plotting the support presidential terms, and said, “Mugabe convince his supporters of the need they could give to ensure that Mugabe must go!” for him to continue as president to remains in office. ensure a smooth handover of power. Mavhaire was suspended from the Some of them, particularly those who party and consequently suffered With what happened in Kenya, where emerged during the country’s worst- financial ruin. As a member of more than a thousand people died ever economic crisis, say returning the parliament, he had been assured of a after the December elections, still vivid economy to normal would be vehicle and free fuel as well as help in people’s minds, many ZANU-PF detrimental to their businesses. for his farm. These benefits supporters and ordinary Zimbabweans disappeared, as did any chance of are reluctant to dump the 84-year-old winning government contracts. leader, who seems to have strong backing from the army and other “Personally, I want the old security agencies. man to continue” — Mugabe supporter from the Mugabe has perfected Breaking away from Mugabe is not an business sector. divide-and-rule tactics that option for many who have benefited fuelled factionalism within from his patronage and do not want to risk losing everything by opposing him. the ruling party — ZANU-PF official. Because of this reason, many ZANU- “Personally, I want the old man to PF senior officials backing continue. I like the old man because I independent presidential candidate owe him everything that I have Simba Makoni have chosen to support amassed. Look at me and look at how Ever since, other ruling party deputies him clandestinely, while continuing to rich I have become because of the have been too frightened to discuss pledge loyalty to Mugabe in public. opportunities that opened up when the anything to do with the constitution, economy started crumbling,” said one lest the presidential axe fall on them. of the group.

Mavhaire’s confidant, the late Edson “We are reminded “I will vote for him and put my last Zvobgo, was dropped by Mugabe dollar to ensure that he wins the from government and party office in constantly of what it means elections.” 2000 for his criticisms of the head of to break away and the state’s ruling style and for suggesting picture does not look very Another said, “If the situation he retire. Zvobgo, who never hid his good” — wavering member normalises, a lot of men will cry and own presidential ambitions, died a of ZANU-PF politburo. lose everything. So we can’t afford heartbroken man in 2004 at the age of that. We would rather pump money 68. He was a founder member of into President Mugabe’s campaign so ZANU- PF and had served in several that the situation remains abnormal. government posts, including that of minister of justice. “Why risk losing my farm and “Zimbabweans have developed a everything that I have gained by culture of getting a quick buck and I Another ZANU-PF official, who asked breaking away from ZANU-PF? Many know most people will not be able to that his name be withheld, said of my colleagues have started jumping go back to formal employment and Mugabe had over the years perfected ship and going back to Mugabe’s wait for a pay cheque. People will find divide-and-rule tactics that fuelled camp. We are reminded constantly of it difficult to cope when the situation factionalism in the party. what it means to break away and the improves.” picture does not look very good,” said He said Mugabe had been switching another politburo member, who asked Zimbabwe has experienced a support over the years among for anonymity. precipitous economic decline since possible successors, who include rural 2000, when the government started housing minister and party legal It is not only the ruling party’s seizing white commercial farms. Since secretary , supporters that want Mugabe to then, unemployment has reached Reserve Bank Governor , remain at the helm, but also some nearly 85 per cent, with the world’s ZANU-PF national chairman John powerful businesspeople, who are highest inflation rate. Nkomo and Vice- President Joice pumping billions of Zimbabwe Mujuru, wife of the powerful General dollars into Mugabe’s election Nonthando Bhebhe is the pseudonym Solomon Mujuru. campaign. of an IWPR journalist in Zimbabwe.

4 ISSUE 24 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS MAKONI SUPPORTERS FEAR MUGABE BACKLASH

Many ruling party members are seemingly too scared to declare support for presidential challenger.

By Meshack Ndodana in Harare

The ZANU-PF heavyweights expected to back Simba Makoni’s presidential bid in next month’s election in Zimbabwe have failed to come out in support of him because they fear President Robert Mugabe will turn on them.

Former finance minister Makoni was expelled from ZANU-PF earlier this month when he announced his Credit: Lazele intention to stand against Mugabe in Simba Makoni speaks at a function at a Harare hotel. Picture taken February 7. the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in March. The party is known for punishing Some of Mujuru allies, such as defectors, and those who are thrown Zimbabwe’s attorney general Sobusa Makoni, who predicts that he and his out have found it hard to recover their Gula-Ndebele, have already felt fellow independent candidates will win former glory, even after being Mugabe’s wrath. the elections in a landslide, has said readmitted. According to the ZANU-PF his immediate priorities on being constitution, a party member loses Gula-Ndebele has since been elected would be to resolve shortages membership if he or she stands as an removed from office and is facing of food, power, fuel and water, and independent. charges of misconduct related to a abolish the various exchange rates that case involving former banker and fuel black-market currency trading. Mugabe has wasted no time in close Mujuru ally James Mushore, who delivering a body blow to the Makoni is accused of breaching the country’s He has also announced plans to project. foreign exchange laws. establish a non-partisan organisation to haul the country out of its current Makoni’s biggest backer, retired Although Gula-Ndebele is alleged to economic crisis, which has left the army commander General Solomon have abused his office to help country with an inflation rate of 66,000 Mujuru, is now under investigation Mushore, commentators believe the per cent, high unemployment and food for various allegations of corruption case against him is politically shortages, and a collapsing concerning his vast business motivated. Mugabe suspended the infrastructure. empire. attorney general last month and appointed a tribunal to investigate Although 73 candidates have so far The charges were levelled at the allegations of his alleged misbehaviour. joined Makoni’s camp and nominated general, who according to reports may themselves as independent now be under house arrest, Guruve North member of parliament candidates in next month’s elections, immediately after it emerged that he David Butau, who was in charge of most of them are political lightweights. was fronting Makoni’s election bid. finances for Mujuru, has now fled to the UK amid allegations of exchange Analysts say that fear of reprisals by According to media reports, Mujuru control violations. the ruling party machinery has has already been called in for deterred those ZANU-PF stalwarts who questioning on corruption charges The charges made against these men were reported to be contemplating which were presented by the Central have been interpreted as attempts by standing with their expelled colleague Intelligence Organisation to the police Mugabe to deal with those he believes as independents. for investigation. are trying to oust him.

MARCH 2008 5 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING

Only a few brave people — mostly February 18, a total of 62 independent opposition party Movement for those who have already been parliamentary candidates and 11 Democratic Change, MDC, headed by marginalised in ZANU-PF — presented aspiring senators had joined his Morgan Tsvangirai. their nomination papers on February project. 15, when the courts sat to receive Makoni has also forged an alliance candidates for the crucial elections. However, so far only a couple of with Professor Arthur Mutambara’s prominent ZANU-PF members have smaller MDC faction. The opposition However, no big names put themselves taken up Makoni’s challenge. leader will back Makoni, and in return, forward. A number of senior figures in he is expected to urge his supporters Mugabe’s party are believed to support Fired former legislator and publisher to vote for candidates from the Makoni’s challenge but are thought to Kindness Paradza, whose newspaper Mutambara faction. be waiting to assess his prospects The Tribune was shut down by the closer to polling day before openly government, and former education Makoni’s camp is contesting most backing him. minister , are among those constituencies, with the least support who have joined Makoni to fight the expected from Mugabe’s home Makoni has not revealed the names of election. province of Mashonaland West and any major supporters in ZANU-PF the Midlands provinces, from where since he announced his decision to , a former legislator Mugabe’s preferred successor contest the election. Sources in his and the first woman to rebel against Emmerson Mnangagwa hails. A camp said although the heavyweights Mugabe and form the Zimbabwe source in Makoni’s camp told IWPR will not come out in the open, they will Democratic Party, is also backing the day before nominations that not as continue to campaign for him behind Makoni and contesting the election as many independent candidates as the scenes. an independent candidate in Chikomo. hoped had been fielded in these two provinces. The candidate urged his supporters Other politicians standing as not be intimidated. independents include the apparent “There is a lot of fear felt by our brains behind the Makoni project Ibbo supporters in those provinces, “I invite the many Zimbabweans who Mandaza, who is going for the although there is interest. It seems share the vision I have ... to join me Mazowe West parliamentary seat. the people in Mashonaland West feel and stand as independents in the ZANU-PF founding member Edgar they might be punished more and forthcoming election under our banner. Tekere is vying for , while Major have more to lose since they have Please enter the race,” he said. General Kudzai Mbudzi is standing for gained the most from Mugabe’s the West seat. patronage. They also understand how The Makoni camp was busy at the ruthless the man can be,” said the weekend checking which of the The independent candidates will fight source. registered independent candidates it out in the parliamentary elections had put their names down in support with candidates from ZANU-PF, as well Meshack Ndodana is the pseudonym of the ex-finance minister. As of late as from the main faction of the of an IWPR journalist in Zimbabwe.

The Zimbabwe Crisis Report is information provision, It also contributes to the an initiative of IWPR-Africa’s capacity building and development of regional policy, Zimbabwe Programme. dissemination and distribution. promotes dialogue and builds This programme promotes bridges within the region. It also democratization and good The key purpose is to increase raises the Africa wide and governance with Southern Africa awareness in the Southern African international profile of Zimbabwe and contributes to the region of the Zimbabwean in the context of the region. development of a culture of situation and the implications for Importantly it also builds the skills human rights and the rule of law. regional peace, security and and capacity of the media to Focusing on Zimbabwe the economic development. reliably and accurately report programme has three core political transition, governance and components — human rights issues.

The programme is managed by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting — Africa. For further details go to www.iwpr.net

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