CRISIS REPORTS

Issue 26 MARCH 2008 Fresh insights into the Zimbabwean situation

MUGABE DEAD SET ON FIRST-ROUND WIN

For the first time since 1980, a presidential election could go into a second round, but analysts say President Mugabe will do his level best to stop that happening.

By Mike Nyoni in

Recent assertions by President that the opposition Movement for Democratic Change is bound to lose the weekend elections have heightened suspicions that he plans to fix the result. Credit: Lazele Mugabe, probably facing his most President Mugabe arrives to speak at a campaign rally in Mbare, a high-density suburb uncertain electoral outcome to date, of Harare. Picture taken March 22. told a campaign rally in Chitungwiza, 30 kilometres from the capital Harare, On March 17, Mugabe introduced the that the Movement for Democratic Presidential Powers (Temporary Change, MDC, and its leader Morgan Measures) Act which authorises police Tsvangirai will never rule Zimbabwe “in to be stationed inside polling stations my lifetime”. President Mugabe is and to assist disabled voters. This allowing police to “help” clearly increases the risk that security This categorical statement has voters inside the polling forces will be in a position to intimidate increased fears that victory for Mugabe voters and influence the choices they and his ZANU-PF party in the March 29 stations. make. Critics say this move, coming polls is a foregone conclusion and will late in the day, is in direct be secured through ballot-stuffing, contravention of an agreement to keep voter intimidation, and manipulation of police away from voting centres, the final figures. concluded by ZANU-PF and the MDC

NEWS IN BRIEF

A study released by the Cato environment where Mugabe African National Congress members Institute this week predicted that maintains almost total control over of parliament who are part of the President Robert Mugabe will remain the electoral system. Southern African Development in power after the March 29 Community’s observer mission to the elections. Opposition leaders warned that the parliamentary and presidential government is printing millions more will reportedly The Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO ballot papers than there are have more freedom to give an honest Forum warned that free and fair registered voters, raising fears of a assessment of the situation than they elections are impossible in an huge vote-rigging operation. have enjoyed in previous ballots.

MARCH 2008 1 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING at the recent talks mediated by the “Mugabe will not allow himself to go people are now venturing out to see Southern African Development through all this pain. That explains for themselves. Others realise voting to Community, SADC. his insistence that no opposition get rid of Mugabe is the only option leader or party will win the elections they have left; it doesn’t really matter Surveys of attendance at pro- and even this late in the hour. He knows who comes in.” anti-Mugabe campaign rallies show he has played his cards well,” he the incumbent trailing Tsvangirai by a said. He said there was clear evidence that growing margin. more people were attending Both Tsvangirai and Mugabe have opposition rallies than was the case in In the unlikely event that the results been drawing huge crowds at their the past, and noted that there was little showed a defeat for Mugabe, he respective campaign rallies. There are attempt by state media to hide this would not take it lying down. allegations that Mugabe is coercing reality. adult voters and schoolchildren to commander Constantine Chiwengwa attend his events, while Tsvangirai is “The best Mugabe can do now is to and Police Commissioner Augustine also bussing in people to boost try and intimidate people so that they Chihuri recently made it clear they numbers at his rallies. don’t go to vote,” said the analyst. would not accept any other winner. “He is already telling people that their Meanwhile, although Makoni — vote doesn’t count, as he did in What is more probable is that the expelled from ZANU-PF shortly after .” presidential election will go to a announcing his election bid in second round, for the first time since February — has no political party of Addressing a rally in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe gained independence from his own, and few resources to boost Zimbabwe’s second city, on March 23, Britain in 1980. his campaign, he has unsettled both Mugabe warned those who backed the Mugabe and Tsvangirai camps, the opposition that they would be By law, the winning candidate must which have attacked him out of wasting their vote. obtain over 50 per cent of the votes concern that he will win over their cast; if no one achieves this, the two supporters. Bulawayo and the two leading candidates go forward to a provinces have voted overwhelmingly second round within 21 days of the As the election draws near, the lines for the MDC since 2000. ballot. With evidence that support for have blurred between the traditional Mugabe is waning, it is uncertain rural power-base of ZANU-PF party “You can vote for them [MDC] but that whether he will gain the required and the MDC’s strength in urban will be a wasted vote,” declared absolute majority, although it remains areas. In particular, commentators say Mugabe. “You will be cheating yourself unlikely that either of his main it has got harder for Mugabe to as there is no way we can allow them challengers — the MDC’s Tsvangirai persuade rural voters that he can save to rule this country. The MDC will not and former finance minister Simba them from economic hardship. rule this country. It will never ever Makoni — will do so, either. happen.” In the past, said one analyst in Harare, According to Eldred Masunungure, a Mugabe was able to use food as a The statement was uncannily similar to political scientist at the University of vote-winner. “This time, there is proclamations by , the last Zimbabwe, Mugabe will make every nothing to give to the people, and they prime minister of what was then effort to avoid being embarrassed by are starving,” he said. “He has been , who said black people being forced into a run-off. He able to distribute farming equipment would “never in a thousand years” rule suggested that this makes it all the under the farm mechanisation the country. more likely that the first-round results programme, but people have will be massaged at the national immediate needs to feed their The analyst suggested that Mugabe’s command centre where the final count families.” options were running out — even will take place. rigging the election could get him into This analyst noted that in contrast to trouble with the SADC, whose member There has been talk that if the first- past elections, this campaign has states used to back him when no one round voting appeared to be going been marked by a lack of overt else did. against him, Mugabe might call a halt violence perpetrated by youth militias to it, or alternatively that he might and veterans. This fact, he said, had “The old man is finished. This time he postpone a re-run. given people more options. is in a fix. Not even SADC can save him now that regional economies are But as Masunungure put it, “all these “People are freer now than they have bleeding because of Mugabe’s are academic discussions and ever been to attend opposition rallies,” policies,” he said. speculation” as the president will take he said. “One cannot rule out the steps to prevent his electoral psychological fear from past Mike Nyoni is the pseudonym of a ambitions going awry. experience, but we can see that reporter in Zimbabwe.

2 ISSUE 26 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS MAKONI EMERGES AS POTENTIAL KINGMAKER

Calling the ex-finance minister a “prostitute” and a “frog” is unlikely to encourage him to back another candidate if the vote goes to a second round.

By Joseph Sithole in Harare

Presidential hopeful has provoked the anger of both front- runners in Zimbabwe’s upcoming election — opposition candidate as well as incumbent Robert Mugabe. Credit: Lazele However, political analysts are warning Simba Makoni addresses an election rally at Zimbabwe Grounds, Harare. that while Makoni’s rivals may have Picture taken March 2. their swords out for him at the moment, he might turn out to be the sizeable population, including war As the third force in this election, kingmaker if the presidential ballot on veterans, police and army personnel, Makoni combines a long history as a March 29 is inconclusive and a run-off were given free land under Mugabe’s government technocrat and ZANU-PF has to be held. chaotic land reform programme member with a degree of credibility launched in 2000. derived from his reputation for being both competent and uncorrupt. Mugabe accuses Makoni of being a However, despite his appeal to many Makoni might turn out to “traitor”, “sellout”, a “prostitute” and a in the political classes who want be the kingmaker if the puffed-up “frog” for leaving the ruling change, Makoni has not yet built up a presidential ballot is party at a critical moment ahead of substantial power-base of his own. inconclusive. joint presidential, parliamentary and local elections.

Tsvangirai has laid two apparently “Makoni walks in Both Mugabe and Tsvangirai, who contradictory charges against Makoni, unannounced and upsets leads the bigger of two factions of the accusing him variously of being a the apple cart” — political opposition Movement for Democratic Mugabe plant designed to confuse Change, MDC, see Makoni, who only and split the opposition electorate, or observer. announced his intention to enter the of being supported by western powers presidential race on February 5, as a opposed to his MDC party. rank outsider who plans to grab their votes. There are fears on both sides of The irony of the latter allegation is that A political observer who did not want the political divide that Makoni could Tsvangirai himself has always been to be named noted that Makoni appeal to voters in both urban and accused by Mugabe of being a appealed to moderates from both rural areas, something neither of their puppet of Britain and other western ZANU-PF and the MDC, and had candidates is confident of doing. powers in pursuit of regime change in refrained from attacking either side. Zimbabwe. Tsvangirai’s MDC enjoys its strongest “They believed they had their following in poor urban areas, while Makoni has rejected the allegations strategies worked out, then Makoni Mugabe’s ruling ZANU-PF party holds made by both camps, without walks in unannounced and upsets the sway mainly in rural areas where a responding in kind. apple cart, as it were,” he said.

MARCH 2008 3 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING

campaign strategies,” he said.

The analyst warned that expressions of hostility could prove short-sighted for both main candidates.

“What they should not forget is that they might need Makoni when it matters most, in the event that none of them gets more than 50 per cent of the vote as required by law,” he said, adding that he thought it unlikely any candidate would win the absolute majority needed to obviate a run-off between the two leading contenders.

“That is where Makoni’s vote becomes decisive. He becomes the kingmaker because both candidates will then Credit: Lazele depend for their fortunes on whom MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai addresses a rally in the eastern city of Mutare. Picture taken February 23. Makoni chooses to throw in his lot with,” he said.

The observer said Makoni’s main “For all practical purposes, the In making that choice, Makoni might problem was that by launching his bid presidential race is between Tsvangirai be swayed by the level of abuse he only in February, “he came in too late”, and Mugabe, and short of serious received from either side, said and fewer major politicians than electoral irregularities, Tsvangirai is Masunungure. expected had voiced public support likely to come out victorious,” he said. for him. However, another analyst forecast that Makoni could play a crucial role even in third place. “You don’t want to work “What they should not with someone who calls forget is that they might “My assessment is that Makoni will you a prostitute or a frog” need Makoni when it come out third in the elections,” said — Masunungure. matters most” — political Eldred Masunungure, a lecturer in analyst Eldred political sciences at the . “The real race is between Masunungure. Mugabe and Tsvangirai. They both have appeal, parties and a solid “This is where these gratuitous insults infrastructure for their campaigns, all become counterproductive, as they “It is unlikely now that his backers will of which Makoni does not enjoy.” might influence Makoni’s decision,” he come out this late,” said the explained. “Politically they [insults] commentator. “In any case, even if Yet, Masunungure said, Makoni could may not matter, but they affect the way they did, many people have already still draw off support from the you relate. You don’t want to work with made up their minds and you would disillusioned supporters of both ZANU- someone who calls you a prostitute or need a miracle to sway them now.” PF and the MDC. a frog, who denigrates you as a foreign imposition, implying that you This commentator predicted that “This should help explain the anger of can’t think for yourself.” Tsvangirai would win, with Mugabe both Tsvangirai and Mugabe at second and Makoni trailing in third Makoni’s sudden entry into the race, Joseph Sithole is the pseudonym of a place. which has obviously badly upset their reporter in Zimbabwe.

4 ISSUE 26 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS BULAWAYO YOUTH JOIN OPPOSITION BANDWAGON

In a country with a tradition of political violence, the sight of opposition supporters openly proclaiming their allegiance marks a significant change.

By Yamikani Mwando in Bulawayo

While human rights groups report a rise in politically-motivated violence in the run-up to the March 29 elections in Zimbabwe, recent displays of defiance in Bulawayo — the hotbed of political opposition — have met with a Credit: Lazele surprisingly muted response. MDC youth members dance at a rally in Harare. Picture taken January 12.

bore the brunt of violence meted out groups reported that people wearing In the past, it was by ZANU-PF members. opposition party regalia were among considered foolhardy to be those most victimised in election But in Bulawayo, the country’s second violence. seen wearing an opposition city and a stronghold of the opposition t-shirt. Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, things appear to have changed. Young people have taken In advance of the elections, many young people are calmly walking up the opposition’s call for In past elections, it was considered around in pro-opposition t-shirts and action. foolhardy for anyone in an urban area plastering MDC posters on the walls, to be seen wearing a t-shirt with no apparent fear of reprisals. emblazoned with the face of an opposition candidate. And according However, urban areas where support to local and international human rights for the opposition is strong are now full watchdogs, it was worse in rural areas, Young people are for the of young people openly identifying where traditional leaders working for first time openly themselves with the anti-Mugabe ZANU PF would monitor the political identifying themselves forces, with apparent impunity. affiliation of villagers and decide how whole communities should vote. with the opposition, In his nationwide rallies, Tsvangirai has without suffering the acknowledged that the young are The Zimbabwe Peace Project, a local consequences. those hardest hit by problems such as human rights group, reported in high unemployment and rampant January that there was an upsurge in inflation, and has told them that this politically-motivated violence across election is their struggle. the country, and identified ZANU-PF In the 2000 election, when support for supporters as the major culprits. the newly-emerged MDC was high, Young people previously seen as Earlier in March, the New York-based images of Tsvangirai and the apathetic seem to have taken up the watchdog issued party’s”open palm” symbol printed on call, prompted into political activism a report saying abuses were on the t-shirts were enough to invite the wrath by the increasing economic hardships increase, as opposition supporters of ZANU-PF activists. Human rights they face.

MARCH 2008 5 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING

“I don’t know why, but this time we who are now part of ZANU-PF are At the same time, the analyst have not been harassed,” said failing to attract support, the absence suggested that voter intimidation may Terence Bafana, a young unemployed of a backlash against the opposition be continuing unreported in remote man wearing a Tsvangirai t-shirt. has further galvanised young people rural areas. into action as the polls near.

“In the past we would have put up the posters at night for fear of backlashes “This time we have not from ZANU-PF supporters. Now we are ZANU-PF diehards seem to been harassed… there pasting these posters side-by-side understand that seems to be some change with Mugabe’s supporters,” the intimidating voters could among ZANU-PF youthful and Bafana said. be “a dire mistake” if supporters” — unemployed A political commentator with a Mugabe then loses the Bulawayo man. Bulawayo-based pressure group elections — analyst in attributed the greater mood of Bulawayo. tolerance among ZANU-PF supporters to an awareness that the party could Pasting an MDC campaign poster next be defeated in the polls. to a ZANU-PF one bearing the face of President Mugabe, he said, “I would “Everybody, including diehard ZANU- “In the end, you get a ZANU-PF victory not have done this in the past, but PF footsoldiers, seems to be and people wonder what happened, there seems to be some change accepting that this is not Robert but this party will simply claim they among ZANU-PF supporters this year.” Mugabe’s year, and any attempts to enjoy massive support in the rural actively take part in acts of areas,” he said. In Matebeleland, where even ex- intimidation could prove to be a dire members of the local ZAPU mistake if Mugabe loses,” the analyst Yamikani Mwando is the pseudonym (Zimbabwe African People’s Union) told IWPR. of a reporter in Zimbabwe.

The Zimbabwe Crisis Report is information provision, It also contributes to the an initiative of IWPR-Africa’s capacity building and development of regional policy, Zimbabwe Programme. dissemination and distribution. promotes dialogue and builds This programme promotes bridges within the region. It also democratization and good The key purpose is to increase raises the Africa wide and governance with Southern Africa awareness in the Southern African international profile of Zimbabwe and contributes to the region of the Zimbabwean in the context of the region. development of a culture of situation and the implications for Importantly it also builds the skills human rights and the rule of law. regional peace, security and and capacity of the media to Focusing on Zimbabwe the economic development. reliably and accurately report programme has three core political transition, governance and components — human rights issues.

The programme is managed by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting — Africa. For further details go to www.iwpr.net

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