ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS Issue 26 MARCH 2008 Fresh insights into the Zimbabwean situation MUGABE DEAD SET ON FIRST-ROUND WIN For the first time since 1980, a presidential election could go into a second round, but analysts say President Robert Mugabe will do his level best to stop that happening. By Mike Nyoni in Harare Recent assertions by President Robert Mugabe that the opposition Movement for Democratic Change is bound to lose the weekend elections have heightened suspicions that he plans to fix the result. Credit: Lazele Mugabe, probably facing his most President Mugabe arrives to speak at a campaign rally in Mbare, a high-density suburb uncertain electoral outcome to date, of Harare. Picture taken March 22. told a campaign rally in Chitungwiza, 30 kilometres from the capital Harare, On March 17, Mugabe introduced the that the Movement for Democratic Presidential Powers (Temporary Change, MDC, and its leader Morgan Measures) Act which authorises police Tsvangirai will never rule Zimbabwe “in to be stationed inside polling stations my lifetime”. President Mugabe is and to assist disabled voters. This allowing police to “help” clearly increases the risk that security This categorical statement has voters inside the polling forces will be in a position to intimidate increased fears that victory for Mugabe voters and influence the choices they and his ZANU-PF party in the March 29 stations. make. Critics say this move, coming polls is a foregone conclusion and will late in the day, is in direct be secured through ballot-stuffing, contravention of an agreement to keep voter intimidation, and manipulation of police away from voting centres, the final figures. concluded by ZANU-PF and the MDC NEWS IN BRIEF A study released by the Cato environment where Mugabe African National Congress members Institute this week predicted that maintains almost total control over of parliament who are part of the President Robert Mugabe will remain the electoral system. Southern African Development in power after the March 29 Community’s observer mission to the elections. Opposition leaders warned that the parliamentary and presidential government is printing millions more elections in Zimbabwe will reportedly The Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO ballot papers than there are have more freedom to give an honest Forum warned that free and fair registered voters, raising fears of a assessment of the situation than they elections are impossible in an huge vote-rigging operation. have enjoyed in previous ballots. MARCH 2008 1 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING at the recent talks mediated by the “Mugabe will not allow himself to go people are now venturing out to see Southern African Development through all this pain. That explains for themselves. Others realise voting to Community, SADC. his insistence that no opposition get rid of Mugabe is the only option leader or party will win the elections they have left; it doesn’t really matter Surveys of attendance at pro- and even this late in the hour. He knows who comes in.” anti-Mugabe campaign rallies show he has played his cards well,” he the incumbent trailing Tsvangirai by a said. He said there was clear evidence that growing margin. more people were attending Both Tsvangirai and Mugabe have opposition rallies than was the case in In the unlikely event that the results been drawing huge crowds at their the past, and noted that there was little showed a defeat for Mugabe, he respective campaign rallies. There are attempt by state media to hide this would not take it lying down. allegations that Mugabe is coercing reality. Zimbabwe Defence Forces adult voters and schoolchildren to commander Constantine Chiwengwa attend his events, while Tsvangirai is “The best Mugabe can do now is to and Police Commissioner Augustine also bussing in people to boost try and intimidate people so that they Chihuri recently made it clear they numbers at his rallies. don’t go to vote,” said the analyst. would not accept any other winner. “He is already telling people that their Meanwhile, although Makoni — vote doesn’t count, as he did in What is more probable is that the expelled from ZANU-PF shortly after Bulawayo.” presidential election will go to a announcing his election bid in second round, for the first time since February — has no political party of Addressing a rally in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe gained independence from his own, and few resources to boost Zimbabwe’s second city, on March 23, Britain in 1980. his campaign, he has unsettled both Mugabe warned those who backed the Mugabe and Tsvangirai camps, the opposition that they would be By law, the winning candidate must which have attacked him out of wasting their vote. obtain over 50 per cent of the votes concern that he will win over their cast; if no one achieves this, the two supporters. Bulawayo and the two Matabeleland leading candidates go forward to a provinces have voted overwhelmingly second round within 21 days of the As the election draws near, the lines for the MDC since 2000. ballot. With evidence that support for have blurred between the traditional Mugabe is waning, it is uncertain rural power-base of ZANU-PF party “You can vote for them [MDC] but that whether he will gain the required and the MDC’s strength in urban will be a wasted vote,” declared absolute majority, although it remains areas. In particular, commentators say Mugabe. “You will be cheating yourself unlikely that either of his main it has got harder for Mugabe to as there is no way we can allow them challengers — the MDC’s Tsvangirai persuade rural voters that he can save to rule this country. The MDC will not and former finance minister Simba them from economic hardship. rule this country. It will never ever Makoni — will do so, either. happen.” In the past, said one analyst in Harare, According to Eldred Masunungure, a Mugabe was able to use food as a The statement was uncannily similar to political scientist at the University of vote-winner. “This time, there is proclamations by Ian Smith, the last Zimbabwe, Mugabe will make every nothing to give to the people, and they prime minister of what was then effort to avoid being embarrassed by are starving,” he said. “He has been Rhodesia, who said black people being forced into a run-off. He able to distribute farming equipment would “never in a thousand years” rule suggested that this makes it all the under the farm mechanisation the country. more likely that the first-round results programme, but people have will be massaged at the national immediate needs to feed their The analyst suggested that Mugabe’s command centre where the final count families.” options were running out — even will take place. rigging the election could get him into This analyst noted that in contrast to trouble with the SADC, whose member There has been talk that if the first- past elections, this campaign has states used to back him when no one round voting appeared to be going been marked by a lack of overt else did. against him, Mugabe might call a halt violence perpetrated by youth militias to it, or alternatively that he might and veterans. This fact, he said, had “The old man is finished. This time he postpone a re-run. given people more options. is in a fix. Not even SADC can save him now that regional economies are But as Masunungure put it, “all these “People are freer now than they have bleeding because of Mugabe’s are academic discussions and ever been to attend opposition rallies,” policies,” he said. speculation” as the president will take he said. “One cannot rule out the steps to prevent his electoral psychological fear from past Mike Nyoni is the pseudonym of a ambitions going awry. experience, but we can see that reporter in Zimbabwe. 2 ISSUE 26 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS MAKONI EMERGES AS POTENTIAL KINGMAKER Calling the ex-finance minister a “prostitute” and a “frog” is unlikely to encourage him to back another candidate if the vote goes to a second round. By Joseph Sithole in Harare Presidential hopeful Simba Makoni has provoked the anger of both front- runners in Zimbabwe’s upcoming election — opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai as well as incumbent Robert Mugabe. Credit: Lazele However, political analysts are warning Simba Makoni addresses an election rally at Zimbabwe Grounds, Harare. that while Makoni’s rivals may have Picture taken March 2. their swords out for him at the moment, he might turn out to be the sizeable population, including war As the third force in this election, kingmaker if the presidential ballot on veterans, police and army personnel, Makoni combines a long history as a March 29 is inconclusive and a run-off were given free land under Mugabe’s government technocrat and ZANU-PF has to be held. chaotic land reform programme member with a degree of credibility launched in 2000. derived from his reputation for being both competent and uncorrupt. Mugabe accuses Makoni of being a However, despite his appeal to many Makoni might turn out to “traitor”, “sellout”, a “prostitute” and a in the political classes who want be the kingmaker if the puffed-up “frog” for leaving the ruling change, Makoni has not yet built up a presidential ballot is party at a critical moment ahead of substantial power-base of his own. inconclusive. joint presidential, parliamentary and local elections. Tsvangirai has laid two apparently “Makoni walks in Both Mugabe and Tsvangirai, who contradictory charges against Makoni, unannounced and upsets leads the bigger of two factions of the accusing him variously of being a the apple cart” — political opposition Movement for Democratic Mugabe plant designed to confuse Change, MDC, see Makoni, who only and split the opposition electorate, or observer.