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Africa Confidential

Africa Confidential

www.africa-confidential.com 21 February 2003 Vol 44 No 4 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL II 2 ZIMBABWE I Succession for sale Businessmen and publishers are This land is our land taking sides in the struggle to A secret government report shows how officials are grabbing farms succeed President Mugabe. and violently evicting landless farmers Newspapers are critical weapons A confidential government audit of Zimbabwe’s land reform has found widespread evidence of corrupt backing the two favourites – Defence Minister Sekeramayi and allocations and the use of violence by senior politicians and military officers to evict landless small Speaker Mnangagwa. farmers – the very people President claimed the land reform policy would help. Reports of corruption and abuses uncovered by the auditors will embarrass Mugabe, who has staked his domestic reputation on the speedy transfer of land to Zimbabwe’s more than two million landless poor farmers. ANGOLA 3 Now, from the government’s own investigations, it appears that not only has the policy precipitated a Beg, borrow and steal catastrophic fall in food crop production which, along with the regional drought, is causing as many as seven million Zimbabweans to go hungry but above all, the policy has financially benefitted the Angola should be doing well: its nomenklatura of Mugabe’s ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). civil war ended last April and the The audit(1), of which Africa Confidential has obtained a copy, reveals that some of the worst violations oil price has been boosted by the Iraq crisis. Yet the nation’s foreign of the land reform policy were committed by Mugabe’s closest political allies, such as Air Marshal reserves have sunk to less than Perence Shiri and Information Minister , as well as Mugabe’s sister, . US$200 million. And the This is the President’s dilemma: his credibility with the ZANU-PF grassroots supporters demands action government isn’t saying where at against violators named in the audit but many of these are major figures in his own political network. least $900 mn. of export earnings have gone since last July. One farm good, four farms better It becomes harder still for Mugabe to take punitive action against offenders in the ZANU-PF hierarchy SIERRA LEONE 4 as party factions jockey for the succession. Mugabe, who is yet to state when he will retire and call a fresh presidential election, is unwilling to commit himself publicly to one faction. Most of the transgressions Model justice, for reported in the audit were committed by his closest political allies, Zezuru politicians from Mashonaland. some For example, the report of those violating the ‘one man, one farm’ rule reads like a list of the ZANU- PF elite and their allies: Information Minister Moyo, presidential sister Sabina Mugabe; former Higher Some 20 to 30 people accused of the most heinous crimes in the Education Minister ; Defence Minister Sydney Sekeremayi; the Air Force Commander, brutal civil war are to be tried this Air Marshal Perence Shiri; Provincial Governors Eliot Manyika, , Peter Chanetsa, Josia year at the Special Court in Hungwe; newspaper publishers Ibbo Mandaza and Mtumwa Mawere; and Barclays Bank Chief Freetown. Set up last August, the Executive Alex Jongwe. Court aims to complete its Both Mandaza and Mawere fiercely deny that they have violated the land policy. They accept they have investigations by June and issue indictments soon after. The hope investments in companies that own several farms but say their inclusion in the audit is a result of ‘mischief is that a swift trial of the accused making’ by their political enemies. The audit accuses both Mawere, who has investments in FSI, and will help reconciliation. Mandaza, who has a stake in Rainbow Hotels, of ‘prejudicing the rights’ of poor landless farmers. Mawere said he’d heard no complaints from landless farmers about FSI’s operations and insisted that, 5 although he was a friend of leading succession contender , he had no political agenda. The wealthy Mnangagwa’s absence from the audit’s list of transgressors may do him some The blame game political good. Mandaza accused former Interior Minister and Matebeleland Governor Mpofu of running a politically and ethnically motivated smear campaign against him. He said The blame for South Africa’s that the individuals whom he was trying to evict from his farms were ‘middle-class Zimbabweans’ not peculiar HIV/AIDS policies is shifting from President Mbeki to the landless poor farmers that his opponents claimed. Health Minister Tshabalala The worst case reported in the audit involves Mugabe’s in-law and business ally Air Marshal Shiri, who Msimang, aka ‘Dr No’ or ‘Dr Do- is identified as owning at least three farms, with one of them – the 1,460 hectare Eirin Farm in Marondera Little’. One view is that Tshabalala- – over three times the maximum size allowed. According to the audit, Shiri is trying to evict 96 landless Msimang is a useful lightning families from Eirin who had been allocated the farm under the government resettlement scheme. conductor for a policy despised by most South African voters. Shiri had approached Agriculture and Land Resettlement Minister (AC Vol 44 No 2), who issued a certificate saying the state had ‘no interest’ in Eirin, effectively countermanding the decision of the local land committee. Shiri then brought in troops to remove families who have effectively resisted POINTERS 8 the attempts to evict them. Shiri was not available for comment. Back in 2000, Mugabe’s advocacy of ‘fast-track’ land reform was a political masterstroke: after two Sudan, Africa/ decades of foot-dragging, some 70 per cent of the most productive land in Zimbabwe was still in the hands , Equatorial of less than one per cent of the population. Its propaganda value boosted Mugabe’s standing when ZANU- Guinea & Kenya PF’s popularity had sunk to new lows with the launch of the Movement for Democratic Change. 21 February 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 4

Land reform made Mugabe’s stolen victory in the 2002 presidential election seem more plausible to some and won him regional support as ZIMBABWE II a born-again freedom fighter: African access and ownership to land is a critical grassroots issue in Southern Africa. It also enabled the government to punish those whites who supported the MDC by pushing them off their land. Mugabe and allies such as Moyo tried to Succession for sale explain the resulting economic disaster by blaming it on a combination Business interests are trading favours, and of drought and foreign sabotage. Last month, the government banned newspapers, to buy political advantage the broadcast of weather forecasts that are not checked first with the Information Ministry. Zimbabwe’s power-brokers take the struggle to succeed President The land reform strategy aimed to seize land from most white land- Robert Mugabe seriously and ingratiate themselves with whomever owners (apart from the select coterie of whites who actively support they think likely to win. Some stand by Mugabe, believing he can still and directly benefit from the ZANU-PF government), then divide up pick his successor. For example, South Africa’s mining giant Anglo the massive farms, allocating the parts to black Zimbabweans on the American last month made a US$30 million credit line for fuel principle of ‘one man, one farm’. It was also agreed there should be a available to the government, providing the foreign exchange at maximum farm size, ranging from 300ha. in Mashonaland to 750ha. in US$1=Z$1,300 – way above the official exchange rate but well below Midlands, to promote the widest distribution of land and development the current market rate of US$1=Z$5,000. Anglo approved the deal of agricultural extension services to the new class of farm owners. after Zimbabwe’s state oil company, Noczim, failed to secure a new Black entrepreneurs and their foreign partners complained such line of credit from Libya. Fuel imports cost Zimbabwe about US$40 limits were impractical: the government responded that the bigger mn. a month and shortages are crippling. farms should remain the property of the state but could be leased to Newspapers are seen as crucial weapons. The , founded wealthy individuals or agri-business concerns. In practice, the ZANU- in 1998, began by offering the Movement for Democratic Change and PF elite, senior military officers and their business allies have breached its leader, , a platform to challenge Mugabe. It both the ‘one man, one farm’ rule and the limits on individual farm size. has since changed its stance. Johannesburg-based businessman Strive Some of Mugabe’s allies own as many as five farms each. Many Masiyiwa owns a majority of shares in its publisher, Associated smallholder farmers who had moved on to former white-owned farms Newspapers of Zimbabwe (ANZ). He also owns Zimbabwe’s third have been violently evicted by senior party figures, using state security mobile telephone company, Econet, which also operates in Botswana, forces or their private militias. Morocco and Nigeria, and is expanding into Europe and New Zealand. Grassroots supporters of land reform and war veterans began to Mugabe’s government detests him and has unsuccessfully accused pressure ZANU-PF leaders over these abuses. They made their own him of financial malpractice. audit at provincial and local level, sending their dossiers to Mugabe. Some of these reports were put together with the cooperation of white Tribunes and proconsuls farmers swindled by senior politicians who had promised them some Masiyiwa was close to Mugabe’s late rival, Vice-President Joshua protection in exchange for their agreeing to clandestine land deals. Nkomo, who granted him a mobile phone licence; the decision was Such complaints, together with growing food shortages, had started to countermanded by Joyce Mujuru, a junior minister married to the challenge the legitimacy of the land strategy, even in the eyes of the former army chief, retired General Solomon Mujuru (aka Rex most nationalist Zimbabweans. Nhongho), who fancies himself a kingmaker (though Econet eventually As calls for redress mounted, Mugabe commissioned a national won its licence). The Daily News, which began boldly, now attracts audit of land reform through the office of Vice-President Joseph more complaints about its partisanship and parochiality than praise for Msika. It began in August 2002 under the auspices of the Minister of its investigative journalism. A dispute late last year between editorial State in the Vice-President’s office, Florence Buka. At ZANU-PF’s staff and management ended when the award-winning Editor, Geoff December congress in Chinoyi, Mugabe announced that the audit was Nyarota, was sacked or resigned, depending on who tells the story. progressing and promised to act on its findings. With Nyarota gone, the Daily News may distance itself from the MDC. The interim audit is now complete and has been sent to Mugabe. It Two other newspaper groups – the rival Business Tribune/Weekend looks certain to further factional divisions within ZANU-PF. Many of Tribune and Sunday Mirror/Daily Mirror groups – are sponsored, those mentioned in the report told Africa Confidential that they were owned and run by supporters of the ruling Zimbabwe African National furious about the allegations made against them and believed they Union-Patriotic Front and represent its two main factions in the were being smeared by political opponents in the succession struggle. succession battle. The Tribunes are owned and run by Mutumwa Much of the blame falls on Agriculture and Land Minister Made, Mawere, a confidant of Emerson Mnangagwa, until recently seen as who is empowered by Parliament to allocate land. The audit suggests Mugabe’s chosen successor. Mawere, with an MBA degree from he is allowing the improper allocation of land to the political elite. The Georgetown University in Washington DC, has been managing and audit repeatedly accuses him of refusing to cooperate with the expanding Mnangagwa’s substantial business holdings in Zimbabwe investigation and witholding information. Time and again the audit and Congo- (AC Vol 43 Nos 15, 21 & 23). Both men are refers to his issuance of certificates of ‘no interest’ which are used by Karanga, with country-wide business interests backed by powerful politicians and businessmen to claim ownership of farms (often in side political and commercial allies in Mashonaland West, the heartland of deals with their previous white owners) who then try to evict the Mugabe’s Zezuru people. landless farmers allocated the property by the local land committee. Mawere’s holding company, Africa Resources Investments (ARI), Privilege and patronage characterise a land policy in shambles. began with asbestos and chrome mines, then took over the Zimbabwe Re-insurance Corporation (valued at US$200 mn.) which also (1) Addendum to the Land Reform and Resettlement Programme underwrites business in South Africa, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia and, National Audit Interim Report (February 2003). it hopes, Kenya. ARI owns First Banking Corporation, one of the first

2 21 February 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 4 black-owned banks in Zimbabwe; launched in partnership with ZANU- for the nation... passion and people within its ranks who can be trusted PF, it posted profits from its inception and is now the fourth largest to run this country on their own’. Ncube now seems to be calling for a bank. Through its FSI subsidiary, ARI has acquired huge tracts of realignment of politics with opposition forces, perhaps involving a land, which it uses far more effectively than other ‘new farmers’. It substantial faction of ZANU-PF; he has been linked to a group of South also manufactures farm equipment and is investing in Malawi’s African-based Zimbabweans who promote that idea. As Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector. political sands shift, business people are trying to catch up. Mawere’s Business Tribune, launched last July, is ostensibly pro- ZANU but in January it carried a leader demanding, ‘Government must deliver or must go’, and it has criticised the government’s ANGOLA attempts to barter land or industrial stocks for Libyan oil as a chronically bad deal for Zimbabweans. However, it has carried no personal criticism of either Mugabe or Mnangagwa. Beg, borrow and steal The Daily Mirror and its sister, the Sunday Mirror, are owned and run by Ibbo Mandaza, a ZANU partisan-turned-businessman who At this critical time for peace, nearly a billion owns the Southern Africa Publishing House together with Joyce dollars is missing from the foreign reserves Kazembe, an academic researcher. Although he professes neutrality Angola, a hoped-for oil ally of the and with a seat on the in the succession struggle, Mandaza has been repeatedly linked to Security Council this year, should be doing well (AC Solomon Mujuru (the two both hail from the same area of Mashonaland Vol 44 No 1). Its civil war ended last April after the death of Jonas Central) in their common opposition to Mnangagwa’s claim to the Savimbi. The price of its growing oil exports has been boosted by the succession. Mandaza told Africa Confidential the succession should Iraq crisis. Yet the nation’s foreign reserves have sunk to less than be decided democratically at a party congress – not by a cabal. Another US$200 million, raising again major questions about government Mandaza friend is former Trade Minister , who accountability. The government is not saying where up to $900 mn. of is said to back Defence Minister Sidney Sekeramayi. export earnings have been spent since last July. In vigorous competition with Mawere’s Tribune, the Mirror’s A leaked internal report by the International Monetary Fund alleged scoop on the clandestine negotiations between Colonel Lionel Dyck last October that some $1 billion a year had vanished from the state and Tsvangirai over an exit plan for Mugabe (AC Vol 44 No 2) helped Treasury in recent years and expressed the usual concern about the lack to discredit Mnangagwa and his ally the army commander, Gen. of transparency in the oil sector; the Fund’s relations with the Luanda , in the party. Mandaza has also visited Tripoli to government promptly hit a new low. Now the government is negotiating negotiate a 14 per cent Libyan stake in the Rainbow Hotels group of a new $1 bn. oil-backed loan from a consortium of European banks, led which he is chairman. by French group BNP Paribas, with huge arrangement fees for the middlemen. Alva Maria Gonçalves, BNP Paribas representative in Gideon’s bible Luanda, confirmed that her bank was involved in a new loan project but , Chief Executive of the Commercial Bank of Zimbabwe gave no details. (CBZ), last year spent Z$200 mn. for 95 per cent of Modus Publications and its respected weekly Financial Gazette. He is a brother-in-law of Lurching from loan to loan First Lady Grace Marufu and works closely with her on a children’s We hear the new $1 bn. loan is to have a five-year repayment period, foundation. Gono put together several oil deals with Libya, for which longer than that of past oil-backed loans but interest rates will still be CBZ earned arrangement fees and warehoused foreign currency. CBZ much higher than those offered by the World Bank or International took over the Zimbabwe assets of the collapsed Bank of Credit and Monetary Fund. However, the inflow of funds from the BNP loan could Commerce International in 1991. It is owned by ABSA of South be many hundreds of millions of dollars less than at first appears. Most Africa and by ZANU, which entrusts the bank with many of its of the loan will be used to repay previous loans, so there will not be much confidential accounts. Gono was recently tipped for Governor of the available for social spending. Angola lurches from loan to loan; this is , until Leonard Tsumba’s contract was the latest lurch and it doesn’t make the financial picture any better. unexpectedly renewed despite ZANU’s dislike of his advocacy of For similar reasons, recent higher oil prices do not necessarily devaluation. translate into more cash for the government. The new loan is to have the Gono, who is Karanga, has not yet lined up with any faction and advantage over the old ones that repayments will not automatically rise may be positioning himself as a technocrat, loyal to the party but when the oil price rises; it is more like a conventional loan, with a more acceptable to local and foreign business. He is close to Mnangagwa, stable interest rate and steady repayment of capital. who is ZANU’s Secretary of Administration, and handles some of the Part of the loan will go to help Angola sort out its foreign debt, of resulting financial business. Another ally is Ignatius Chombo, a which the IMF reckons some $4.8 bn. is in arrears, much of it owed to party boss damaged by allegations of grand corruption. Portugal and Spain. On 28 November, Luanda signed a debt protocol The much less moneyed Trevor Ncube, majority shareholder of the which starts to sort out its outstanding Portuguese debt of 2.2 bn. Euros Zimbabwe Independent (Zimind), has bought South Africa’s Weekly ($2.37 bn.), roughly half to private companies, half to the Lisbon Mail and Guardian from Britain’s Guardian newspapers, raising the government. The deal commits Angola to paying 27 per cent of the capital through the African Banking Corporation (ABC), which is also public debt to Portugal in 75 days, with the rest payable by installment linked to Mawere and has Ghana’s Sam Jonah on the board; Ncube over 25 years after a five-year grace period. In exchange, Portugal has also received funds from George Soros’ Open Society foundation. would use its export credit agency, Cosec, to support new projects in The Zimbabwe Independent, founded in 1980, has consistently criticised Angola and lobby for more funds from the and Mugabe. When the MDC was launched and political change seemed elsewhere. Some private Portuguese companies, too, such as construction imminent, Ncube’s papers turned up their criticism but last week, they firms Soares da Costa, Mota-Engil, Teixeira Duarte and Somague, have accused the MDC of lacking ‘decisive leadership, and a clear vision been offered part of what they are owed (better than nothing, maybe)

3 21 February 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 4

and may risk starting up in Angola again. Some senior finance officials say they need agreement with the IMF In July 2002, Angola had just over $1 bn. in foreign reserves. The on cheaper loans for post-war reconstruction. Vice-Minister of official data show a fall to $843 mn. by September, since when no Finance Manuel Nunes Junior said the oil-backed loans were monetary data have been released and the government’s fiscal accounts unsustainable and that Angola would have to improve transparency for the last three quarters of 2002 remain unpublished. A Finance and accountability to reopen negotiations with the IMF. He would not Ministry source, declining to state the present level of reserves, said put a timeframe on restarting negotiations. Relations with the Fund they were ‘not as high as the government would like but they are may have improved slightly since January, when it sent a strictly sufficient for a country which is in crisis’. technical mission to Luanda to assess the fiscal position. Another IMF A senior economist in Luanda told Africa Confidential that foreign mission is due later this month, to work on monetary policies. reserves had crashed to just over $100 mn. by the beginning of this Angola had hoped to organise a donor conference in March, to win month. Other sources suggested they were closer to $200 mn., which promises of financial support for post-war reconstruction; Belgium still indicated colossal off-budget government spending. The seems willing to host the meeting but not before June. The last such government says it is considering publishing a report on its management conference, in 1995, raised promises of $1 bn. but the then peace deal of oil revenues and how funds flow in the ‘Bermuda Triangle’ between broke down and only some $200,000 was spent. This time, the the state oil company Sonangol, the Finance Ministry and the government will get little sympathy until it cracks down on corruption. Presidency. Yet in November 2002, the government said it would The IMF is demanding that the government publish a poverty reduction publish by the end of the year an executive summary of a report on strategy and that it accede to economic reforms demanded by the Fund monitoring its oil revenues. It has not yet appeared. and World Bank. A recent survey in the private press identified some The IMF representative in Luanda, Carlos Leite, said he could not 57 senior government officials as each having more than $50 mn. in comment on the government’s current financial position ‘but the IMF private wealth. The war may be over and UNITA established as the is on record as being concerned about the level of inflation and the political opposition but the government will not present its accounts need for improvement in the efficiency of public expenditure and to the National Assembly or to the people. Some 70 per cent of more transparency in public sector management’. He added, ‘The Angola’s 13 mn. people live on less than 70 cents a day. IMF hopes that some of its recommendations could be implemented in the near future, in particular transparency and increased allocations to social sectors’. SIERRA LEONE

A welcome for the loan sharks Western diplomats confirmed that Angola’s state finances are in poor Model justice, for some shape, reducing still further the tiny amount available for social War crimes trials start this year but the spending. The high-interest oil-backed loan would not have been causes of the war still fester necessary if Luanda had secured a cheaper IMF credit but that would involve ending some of the worst corrupt practices, providing detailed Some 20 to 30 people accused of the most heinous crimes in Sierra accounts of oil-receipts and state sector payments. Leone’s brutal civil war are to be tried this year at the Special Court Within two years, the Luanda nomenklatura will be less financially in Freetown, operating from Slovenian-made prefabricated buildings. constrained and will no longer have to worry about IMF loans or IMF The Court, whose President is the -based barrister Geoffrey anti-corruption strictures. By late 2004/early 2005, oil projects such Robertson, is meant to be more effective than the widely derided and as ExxonMobil’s Kizomba A will start producing, followed by others under-resourced tribunal in Arusha, , on the Rwandan from British Petroleum and TotalFinaElf in 2006. That will raise genocide. Set up last August, the Court wants to complete its Angola’s production far above last year’s 900,000 barrels per day to investigations in June and issue indictments soon after. The hope is a projected 1.8 mn. bpd by 2008. Exploration is likely to increase as that a swift trial of the accused will help reconciliation. Distrust from the value of the new offshore fields becomes evident. the war era lingers, shown by the recent coup plotting accusations One excuse for higher government spending in 2002 was the cost of against former military leader Johnny Paul Koroma. organising the ceasefire and the disarmament of the União Nacional para a Independência Total de Angola rebels who, in their new role as Taking judges more seriously opposition party, claim the peace process is underfunded (AC Vol 44 The Court’s Chief Prosecutor, United States’ military David No 3). A UN source estimates government spending on the process at Crane, a former Inspector General in the US Department of Defense, $50-70 mn.; UNITA Secretary General Paulo Lukamba Gato has has been asking people what they want the Court to do. High on the claimed the government wants peace but cheaply. Yet the budget list comes ending the culture of impunity operating since Independence, deficit has ballooned in 2002 to 8.6 per cent of gross domestic product, as does persuading Sierra Leoneans to take the judicial system more twice the amount set out in last year’s budget. This deficit has been seriously. At the Court’s sister body, the Truth and Reconciliation funded by expensive short-term loans, using future oil output as Commission (TRC), things are not moving so briskly. Established by collateral. the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human It will be hard to break this cycle of financial crisis, corruption and Rights to allow Sierra Leoneans to testify on the war, to air grievances non-accountability. A few optimists point out that a recent government and establish what happened during the conflict, the TRC has been reshuffle put some known reformists into senior positions. A former hampered by mismanagement. Central Bank Governor, the reform-minded Aguinaldo Jaïme, has Its interim Executive Secretary, lawyer Yasmin Jusu-Sheriff, the been appointed Deputy Prime Minister coordinating the government’s daughter of former Vice-President Salia Jusu-Sheriff, was nominated economic task force and will work closely with new Finance Minister by President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah, perhaps in the hope that she José Pedro de Morais, formerly Angola’s representative to the IMF would treat his government sympathetically. Her recruitment policy and another reformer. was less than transparent, dominated by the appointment of relatives

4 21 February 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 4 and activists of the governing Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP). Kabbah is keeping a low profile. There are rumours about his UN Special Representative Oluyemi Adeniji extended the timetable health, though he was fit enough to go on the Hajj to Mecca this year, because of the Commission’s administrative shortcomings. Only one with a big government delegation including Foreign Minister Momodu of the three international commissioners, Gambia’s Ajaaratou Satang Koroma. The aeroplane was provided by Libya, an increasingly Jow, is in Freetown on a full-time basis. William Schabas, a Canadian significant ally and donor. who is Professor of Human Rights Law at the National University of Berewa, who during the May 2002 elections denied talk of a deal Ireland, and Yasmin Sooka, Director of the Foundation for Human between the two for Kabbah to step down after two years, takes on Rights in South Africa, are well respected but part-time (AC Vol 43 many of his duties, such as attending the African Union summit in No 11). Ethiopia on 3-4 February. Manoeuvring for position, the ambitious Once the OHCHR heard of the problems, the UN Development John Benjamin, who was the only civilian in Captain Valentine Programme in Freetown carried out an independent personnel review Strasser’s National Provisional Ruling Council (1992-6), has quit his in July 2002, finding that many staff were unqualified or had nothing National Unity Party for Kabbah’s SLPP – a sudden convert to the idea to do. The TRC did not sack them immediately; instead, their that the country should have no more than two political movements. contracts lasted until October and the Commission started again, There are some highly competent figures in government. Trade hiring lawyer Franklyn Bai Kargbo, who is seen as a more credible Minister Kadi Sesay is determined to do the right thing and the new Executive Secretary. Kargbo, who served for a year as Attorney privatisation agency is run by the tough-minded Andrew Turay, who General and Secretary of State for Judicial Affairs under the former has the huge task of restructuring state companies. For now, mining military regime, has been Chief of the Human Rights Office for the UN lacks investors with the stomach for that level of risk. Sierra Leone has peacekeeping mission in Eritrea and Ethiopia since 2001. signed up to the Kimberley Process, which aims to outlaw conflict diamonds but does little to interdict other gem smuggling operations. A dry run for Saddam Smuggled or illegal exports of diamonds are estimated at ten times the With new staff in place, the TRC is taking statements from people level of official exports; several investigators claim funds are raised wanting to testify. The mandate says it should finish proceedings by and laundered for Al Qaida from this illegal trade. Also, Sierra October but it is likely to take a six-month extension. Fears of conflict Leone’s waters are fished illegally, losing the government another between the TRC and Special Court have proved unfounded, partly valuable source of income. because the Court is more advanced in its investigations and doesn’t Needs are simple and immense – restoring agriculture, providing need statements to the TRC as evidence. If the Special Court is schools and healthcare, finding work for disarmed fighters. The successful and the TRC less so, Sierra Leoneans may be left with the World Bank is focusing on social sectors. Two US$20 million grants, impression of a few show trials and little effort to help reconciliation for health and education, await approval, to be followed in April by a across the country. The Court is promoted by some as a model for war $35 mn. grant for the National Social Action Programme, to support crimes tribunals to try such figures as Iraq’s President Saddam community rebuilding projects. A Bank study of the mining sector, Hussein, just as the rebuilding plan for Sierra Leone has been hailed which used to generate half of export revenue, is under way. Next as a model for the restoration of other ‘failed states’. year, the Bank is to back major institutional reforms in the state sector. Few are likely to attract the resources and efforts focused by Britain It will be difficult for Sierra Leone to break away from its dependence on Sierra Leone. That makes the country’s post-war progress all the on foreign aid, despite its substantial reserves of rutile and multi- more important for British and UN credibility – and a source of field billion dollar kimberlite diamond mines. The war may have been experience to those who write reconstruction and stabilisation plans formally over for a year but now the country faces a new problem – for Afghanistan and the former Yugoslavia, and who are now nervous investors see it as a fragile island in a neighbourhood that focusing on Iraq. Post-war Sierra Leone should be riding on a wave continues to live dangerously. of international goodwill but recovery remains far-off and good ideas are blocked by bureaucracy and vested interests. Most presidential and cabinet decisions never get implemented. A small core of SOUTH AFRICA dynamic business leaders see the government as largely irrelevant. Corruption, mismanagement and inertia are less a legacy of the war, more a part of political culture since Independence. The blame game Western development officials met the government in in AIDS policy is still disastrous, though the November to draw up a recovery plan (AC Vol 43 No 23). They are President now leaves it to his Health Minister to meet Vice-President Solomon Berewa in Freetown every two months to review progress. Investors are cautious about returning to The blame for South Africa’s peculiar policies on HIV/AIDS is the mining sector. The war may be over but fighters in the east still shifting from President to his Health Minister, Manto need to be disarmed. The border with Liberia is insecure but the Tshabalala-Msimang, caricatured by local AIDS activists as ‘Dr. Economic Community of West African States, struggling with regional No’ or ‘Dr. Do-Little’. Mbeki may have begun backing away from his pressures on several fronts, has persuaded the Monrovia government own controversial stand on the pandemic, as his handlers advise him and its rebel foes to start peace talks. President Charles Taylor may to keep his ‘dissident’ views private. The survival of Tshabalala- be too busy dealing with the Liberians United for Reconciliation and Msimang, who has come to symbolise the government’s catstrophic Democracy, as well as Liberians on both sides of the conflict in mishandling of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, is puzzling. A cynical view western Côte d’Ivoire, to threaten Sierra Leone now. More problematic is that Tshabalala-Msimang, a medical doctor who initially didn’t are the rebel Revolutionary United Front veterans in Côte d’Ivoire, share Mbeki’s pathological opposition to anti-retroviral drugs for who claim allegiance to fugitive RUF commander Sam Bockarie. HIV/AIDS treatment, is a useful lightning conductor for a policy that Any progress in bringing peace to Côte d’Ivoire will mean they are is despised by most South African voters. again out of a job. Tshabalala-Msimang resists attempts at a comprehensive strategy

5 21 February 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 4 Said and unsaid President Thabo Mbeki’s State of the Nation speech at the opening of said at December’s African National Congress national conference: ‘We parliament on 14 February has left many feeling he slighted the nation in will continue to work with the people of Zimbabwe as they seek solutions favor of a largely symbolic foreign policy initiative. He devoted the first to the problems affecting their country. We hope that sooner rather than part of his speech to Iraq, a crisis on which he can have a minimal effect, later, these solutions will be found through dialogue among the leaders of and downplayed more pressing issues. The most urgent include his biggest this neighbouring country.’ foreign challenge, Zimbabwe, and at home, AIDS and crime. The public was more shocked by the omission of AIDS. As Mbeki spoke, The rest of the speech brought lots of good news, including higher-than- thousands of people (somewhere between 10,000 and 30,000) were massing expected economic growth, legislation on black economic empowerment, for a march to Parliament, to demand a national treatment plan by the end increased child-welfare grants and state investment in infrastructure. of February for the 4.5 million HIV/AIDS sufferers. However, Mbeki Nevertheless, his initial focus and the things he missed out resulted in a referred only once to the pandemic. ‘Working together with SANAC [South public relations disaster: it sounded insensitive and uncaring. African National AIDS Council] we will continue to implement the Mbeki announced he would send a team of scientists, engineers and other government’s comprehensive strategy on HIV and AIDS, relating to all experts to Baghdad to share their experience of eliminating weapons of elements of this strategy. This includes implementation of the decisions of mass destruction (WMD). SA’s dismantling of its WMD programme in the the Constitutional Court.’ early 1990s is widely seen as a huge success but it’s never been subjected His words on economic indicators were more promising. Growth in gross to verification. domestic product for 2002 was put at 3.1 per cent, well above predictions. ‘Some among us worked to develop and accumulate exactly the terrible Gross fixed capital formation grew by almost 8 per cent during the year. weapons that the Security Council is demanding that Iraq should destroy,’ Manufacturing grew by 5.4 per cent in 2002, the fastest since 1995. The rand said Mbeki, adding, to the astonishment of many listeners, that SA had had recovered after a rapid slide in 2001, recording its first gain against the already given Iraq copies of its legislation on WMD. President Saddam US dollar in 15 years. Household debt was at its lowest since 1993. In the Hussein had already accepted Mbeki’s offer. first three quarters of 2002, household consumption grew by an average of Speculation erupted as to whether SA’s most famous expert on biological 3.2 per cent, disposable income rose by over 3.5 per cent. Tax reforms had and chemical weapons (BCW), Wouter Basson, would be on the Baghdad increased cumulative income since 1999 by 38.1 billion rand (US$4.5 bn.). trip. Better known as ‘Doctor Death’, Basson led the government’s He also highlighted government investment. Over R100 bn. ($11.9 bn.) germ warfare programme in the 1980s. In April 2002, Judge Willie had been set aside for capital expenditure in the macro-economic management Hartzenberg acquitted him of charges including murder and fraud. plan, the Medium Term Economic Framework (MTEF) at the national level, On 16 February, Basson acknowledged that as head of ‘Project Coast’, R55 billion for infrastructure. Planned investment by major state corporations he had been to Iraq several times. In 1986, he said, when the United States for 2003 is at least R32 bn. This includes key economic infrastructure was helping Iraq’s BCW programme, it was ‘reasonably basic’ but by 1989, projects, such as the John Ross Highway between Durban and Richards Bay, it was ‘rather good’. It was destroyed in the 1991 Gulf War, he claimed, but KwaZulu-Natal’s second biggest harbour. by 1995, when he said he’d last visited Iraq, the country had ‘a bit of a start Building will also begin on the Olifants River dam in the Limpopo up programme’. United Nations sanctions had made it hard to obtain good Province to provide water for platinum mining and agriculture, as will quality materials, he noted, stressing that dispersal techniques were especially construction of Ngqura (Coega) port in the Eastern Cape, along with affected. His reappearance has caused some Western concern: he also made commissioning of the Durban Container Terminal. Durban International unexplained visits to Libya in the mid-1990s. Airport will be relocated to La Mercy on the KZN coast and a new trade port Just back from Baghdad, Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Pahad said on will be established there. ‘Within eight months’, said Mbeki, details should 15 February that Saddam had assured him he had no more WMD. It was the be finalised on inviting the private sector to take part in the project. Massive job of UN weapons inspectors to verify this, he added. investment would be dedicated to upgrading and acquiring railway rolling In his 23-page speech, Mbeki showed less interest in his controversial stock as well as the multi-million rand Taxi Recapitalisation Programme; neighbour. In a mere two-line reference to Zimbabwe, which he lumped this involves soft loans to help owners replace all minibus taxis and ‘should together with Lesotho and Swaziland, Mbeki simply repeated what he’d start this year’, said the President. for treating HIV/AIDS (Human Immuno-Deficiency Virus/Acquired to the 27-member National Working Committee, the party ‘cabinet’. Immuno-Deficiency Syndrome). Her outbursts are frequent, most South Africa is the nation worst hit by HIV/AIDS, with about 4.5 recently in defence of the Mpumalanga Province Health Minister, million of its 42 million or so people infected and a weaker response Sibongile Manana, who had been hauled into court for defying an by the government than in poorer African countries such as Botswana, order to provide pregnant women with anti-retrovirals. These medicines Senegal or Uganda. Fewer than 1,000 of those patients living with have not been fully certified by the State Medicine Controls Council, HIV/AIDS receive free anti-retrovirals from non-governmental so can be administered only in government programmes. Tshabalala- organisations. Some 20,000 more people pay for them or get them Msimang said that if Manana were gaoled, she would go with her. through private insurers and workplace treatment programmes, such The ruling African National Congress seems to have decided to ride as that of the mining multinational Anglo American. Most get them out the AIDS storm until the 2004 general elections (AC Vol 44 No through medical insurance schemes. 1). It believes it’s too costly, and too late, to relent. A strong stand in Mbeki now avoids the subject and mentioned it only twice, in favour of the Health Minister signals party unity and steadfastness – passing, during his presidential speech at the ANC conference. He and she, rather than Mbeki, may become the political liability. She didn’t mention it at all at the party’s 91st anniversary celebrations on gets lukewarm support from rank-and-file ANC members but the elite 8 January, signalling to party bureaucrats its low priority. The at the ANC’s national congress in December backed her. Delegates government still refuses to distribute anti-retrovirals to AIDS patients voted her on to the 60-member National Executive Committee with in public hospitals and has blocked KwaZulu-Natal Province (with the fifteenth highest number of votes and NEC members elevated her 33.5 per cent of the total population) from accepting a US$72 mn. grant 6 21 February 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 4 from the United Nations Global Fund to start distributing the drugs on and as a result, the health system was a shambles. That won him the its own. In late January, Tshabalala-Msimang invited another AIDS wrath of the ANC Youth League, whose leaders are also the vanguard dissident, Roberto Giraldo, a medical doctor, to address a Southern of Mbeki’s failing Zimbabwe policy. Ordinary people, and a few African conference on nutrition. Giraldo, a member of Mbeki’s celebrities, take risks when they speak out, as when the renowned controversial AIDS advisory panel, believes anti-retrovirals cause musician Hugh Masekela disclosed that his sister had died of AIDS. AIDS. Both Tshabalala-Msimang and Mbeki have said anti-retrovirals It is assumed that Tshabalala-Msimang stays in office because of are toxic and kill people. her loyalty to Mbeki. He retains his sceptical views, though his The government has opposed several court applications by activist government says its policy is now based on the ‘premise’ that HIV groups, such as the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC), to implement causes AIDS. Mbeki has stuck with other loyal but underperforming a drug treatment programme in hospitals, as the courts have ordered. ministers, such as Dullah Omar (at Transport; he has finally resigned After a cabinet meeting last April, Pretoria announced that survivors because of ill health) and Sankie Mthembi-Mahanyele (Housing). of sexual assault would be given anti-retrovirals in a bid to prevent He has promoted others, such as Dumisani Makhaye (former KZN HIV infection; most observers interpreted this as a significant change Housing Minister, whose policies heightened tensions in the Province, of heart. Yet the TAC and its allies are still asking the courts to order AC Vol 44 No 2) and ‘rehabilitated’ Chief Whip Tony Yengeni, who one anti-retroviral, nevirapine, to be offered to pregnant HIV-positive on 13 February was acquitted of corruption and pleaded guilty to women, to reduce the risk of mother-to-child transmission and the misleading Parliament by lying about a discount he’d received on a government has appealed against the court order. luxury vehicle from a company involved in bidding for arms contracts Last year, the ANC’s spin-doctors seemed to be toning down when he chaired the parliamentary Defence Committee. Mbeki’s eccentric views, partly because of local pressure, also to win ANC insiders say Tshabalala-Msimang has the confidence of the donor support for the New Partnership for Africa’s Development party’s top leaders, who tend to rally around colleagues who face (NePAD) before the Group of Eight (G8) meeting in Canada last July. criticism. Mbeki is expected to stand by her, although her Ministry’s That same month, the Constitutional Court upheld a High Court order HIV/AIDS policies bedevil South Africa’s international image and that the government should introduce nevirapine, arguing that by could have a big impact at next year’s national and provincial elections; restricting the drug to 18 pilot sites, the government violated the opinion polls put ANC support at an all-time low of 52 per cent. constitutional rights of women and babies. When Mbeki opened Parliament on 14 February, he failed to announce a new AIDS strategy or anti-retroviral pilot programme, as Madiba shows the way had been widely hoped. Mbeki’s aides have talked of national targets Former President Nelson Mandela has openly and repeatedly disagreed and national awareness days but his critics doubt whether even such with his successor’s views and disapproved of the government’s minimal plans will be implemented. Yet discussions run by the actions. Notably, he visited TAC leader (and ANC activist) Zackie National Economic Development and Labour Council, involving Achmat, whose AIDS had got worse after he refused to take drugs government, business, labour and community organisations, may before they are freely available. The new and outspoken Chairman of result in agreement on a national prevention and treatment plan for the South African Medical Association, Kgosi Letlape, also visited HIV/AIDS. The Council missed its deadline of 1 December, World Achmat and condemned ‘the country’s inhumane policy of no treatment Aids Day, to sign the agreement; business now seems ready to sign but for AIDS patients’. the government stays silent. Tshabalala-Msimang continued to assert the toxicity of nevirapine, The activists, led by TAC, organised a mass march to coincide with despite the Constitutional Court decision. At an international AIDS the opening of parliament and if government does nothing before the conference in Barcelona, Spain, last June, she told an American end of February, they plan a ‘serious non-violent civil disobedience reporter that anti-retrovirals (which do have side-effects) would campaign’ throughout 2003. The details are obscure but are said to ‘poison our people’; returning home, she blocked the Gauteng provincial include protests at high-profile events, illegal importation of anti- government’s mother-to-child programme and tried to stop Anglo retrovirals and public humiliation of Tshabalala-Msimang. Naledi American from offering its employees ARV treatment. She said Pandor, granddaughter of the late ANC President Z.K. Matthews neither had consulted with her and that she would deregister nevirapine. and current Chairperson of the National Council of Provinces, is Her most serious public move was blocking the UN grant to KwaZulu- sometimes mentioned as replacement health minister, once the elections Natal as it ‘bypassed the democratically elected government’ but her are over. That means more than a year to wait. most dramatic statement came in December, when she told Britain’s Guardian newspaper the country could not afford anti-AIDS drugs Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com because it needed submarines to deter an attack by the USA. Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at The UN said last month that the fight against the disease in Southern 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. Africa has lacked strong, decisive leadership and political commitment. Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. Copyright reserved. Editor: Patrick Smith. Deputy Editors: Gillian Lusk In South Africa, this lack is ensured by top-level opposition. Mandela and Thalia Griffiths. Administration: Clare Tauben and Juliet Amissah. has tried to fill the gap (though little was done while he was President) Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa but no one from government has joined him. Confidential in advance: The head of South Africa’s Anglican Church, Archbishop Institutions: Africa £328 – UK/Europe £385 – USA $970 – ROW £502 Corporates: Africa £424 – UK/Europe £472 – USA $1093 – ROW £589 Njongonkulu Ndungane, directly criticised Tshabalala-Msimang at Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £91 or USA $131 the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The African Studies Assoc. members: UK/Europe £70 – Americas $102 – ROW £70 Prelate praised her cabinet colleagues Alec Erwin (who as Trade All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept Minister and World Trade Organisation ex-Chairperson negotiates American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 access by developing countries to medicines) and Trevor Manuel 1FH England. Tel: 44 (0)1865 778315 and Fax: 44 (0)1865 471775 (whose Finance Ministry increased the AIDS budget by 25 per cent). Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. However, of Tshabalala-Msimang he said: ‘She is bad news for SA’ ISSN 0044-6483

7 21 February 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 4

Pointers AFRICA/CHINA KENYA

SUDAN A long march Musyoka’s message China’s decision last week to send 220 Foreign Minister Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka’s peacekeeping troops to the beleaguered Mission swing through Washington and London last week Killing fields de l’Organisation des Nations Unies en République reinforced the aid-for-security cooperation trade- Oil money is again exacerbating the war. A Démocratique du Congo (MONUC) has been off dominating Kenyan policy. President Mwai consortium operated by state-owned China welcomed at a time when international military Kibaki’s government will get military training National Petroleum Company has made a ‘very personnel are at a premium as the United States, from the United States, and the US presidency significant’ strike in Block 7 of east-central Sudan’s Britain and others prepare for war in Iraq. Since has earmarked some US$6.5 million for military Melut Basin, say industry sources. This will boost the UN Security Council approved MONUC’s kit. US military and intelligence in Kenya has the Islamist government just as the United States expansion from 5,500 to 8,700 troops last sharply increased since September 2001 and the finally blames it for most attacks on civilians in oil December after a new accord between the Kinshasa security relationship is closer still under Kibaki. areas. This is the first Block 7 strike for Petrodar, government and rebel factions (AC Vol 44 No 1), With the International Cooperation dossier a consortium apparently of CNPC, Qatar’s Gulf it has had difficulty in attracting new troop incorporated in his brief, Musyoka may now restore Petroleum Corp., government’s Sudapet and local contributions. The People’s Liberation Army the Foreign Minister’s position to its former glory. firm Al Hath. Concessions often change hands: contingent,an engineering battalion and a medical Kenya has been bombed twice by Al Qaida. Salah Idriss, owner of the bombed Shifa unit, is to be stationed at Bukavu, which is held by Recent US intelligence reports indicate that a pharmaceutical factory, once held part of Block 7. the Rwandan-backed Rassemblement Congolais team of Al Qaida operatives has fanned out from At 5,000 barrels a day, the strike looks similar pour la Démocratie-Goma. Close to the Rwanda Comoros to Kenya, Seychelles and Somalia. Big to those in Muglad Basin further south (Heglig, border, Bukavu saw clashes last year between changes loom in Kenya’s corrupt or politicised Unity and Thar Jath fields). Official confirmation RCD-Goma and pro-government Mayi-Mayi. intelligence and military hierarchy. The incumbent of the strike will increase interest in Block 8, also The PLA has augmented its diplomatic presence Armed Forces Commander, Lieutenant General in Melut Basin, which several companies are in Africa over the past decade, with more military Jo Kibwana (Coast) and the flamboyant Major watching, including one from Saudi Arabia. Oil attachés in Southern African Development Gen. John Koech (Kalenjin) are to go. One of the Minister Awad el Jaz said on 3 February foreign Community countries than any other country. few Kikuyu generals left in the army is likely to companies were ‘rushing for positions’ (AC Vol The attachés divide their work between arranging replace Kibwana. Intelligence chief Brigadier 44 No 3). He said he hoped deals for three blocks training programmes, security liaison and Wilson Boinett’s position is ambiguous; a friend including Block 8 would be done within weeks. negotiating arms sales. Denied a major role in described him as ‘having almost convinced the Block 8 is close to Southern Blue Nile (SBN), South Africa’s US$6 billion arms procurement government of his undying loyalty’. Boinett’s a buffer-zone region often attacked by government package, the PLA has become an important source fellow Kalenjin, Sally Kosgey, was relieved of forces clearing areas for exploration. The absence of military hardware for Congo-Kinshasa, Sudan her position as Civil Service head, with its of Western oil companies around Melut means an and Zimbabwe – the last two are barred from considerable patronage, early this month. absence of investigators, too. It has taken nearly buying arms from the European Union or USA. Just before Musyoka met Secretary of State a year for US and Canadian investigators to find Colin Powell in Washington, the US government evidence of a massacre on the western edge of EQUATORIAL GUINEA released its fiscal year 2004 budget with heavy SBN, south of CNPC’s Adar Yel field. Survivors cuts in aid for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. said Sudanese troops from Boing garrison, which Development aid for Kenya is to be cut to $3.8 Brigadier General Ibrahim Salih commands, had El Jefe reshuffles mn. from $13.5 mn. last year – yet Sudan has been killed hundreds, perhaps thousands, of civilians in Following his overwhelming but controversial allocated $50 mn. for fiscal 2004, meant to be an an area with no Sudanese opposition fighters. 97.1 percent election victory, President Teodoro incentive for the peace talks. Khartoum’s Islamist Human bones littered the ground, many of them Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, (aka‘El Jefe’– The government is under US sanctions and receives no children’s. One man told how his son of six was Boss), has tired of efforts to bring oppositionists US aid: that won’t change if the talks fail. If they decapitated and his head positioned outside the into government. On 11 February, Obiang succeed, the aid will go to civil society. US family’s burning hut. announced a new team, all drawn from his own officials say Kenya will benefit from other Agreement to strengthen human rights supporters – despite his January speech, calling discretionary US initiatives on health and education monitoring is widely seen as the key achievement for a fully inclusive government. but it could lose over $500 mn. a year from relief of the latest round of peace talks but Khartoum Candido Muatetema Rivas (42) remains Prime contracts to southern Sudan if the civil war ended. continues to breach the cessation of hostilities Minister, a symbolic gesture to the minority Bubi Kenya hosts two peace talks, on Sudan and agreed in October and, contrary to this month’s people. The reshuffle strengthens heir apparent Somalia, both regarded by the USA as critical to agreement, to hold recent positions and to build its Teodorín Nguema Obiang Mangue, who lost the containing Islamists. Musyoka echoed military oil road in Western Upper Nile. Sources Environment and Fisheries portfolios but added Washington’s optimism for a peace deal in Sudan close to the US-funded Civilian Protection Infrastructure to his lucrative Forestry Ministry. by July but was much less optimistic about the Monitoring Team say government attacks resumed Two seasoned diplomats have key posts: ex- Somali talks which are now being run by Moi-era on villages around Ler, in WUN, as soon as talks Washington Ambassador Pastor Ondo Micha Bilé senior diplomat Bethuel Kiplagat, who played a adjourned on 6 February. Senior Sudan People’s at Foreign Affairs; and Agustin Nzé Nfumu, former leading role in ’s peace talks a decade Liberation Army commanders say Khartoum’s Secretary General of the ruling party, at Information ago. Lt. Gen. Lazaro K. Sumbeiywo will stay on military build-up under cover of the talks threatens Both speak English and represent a bid by Obiang to as Sudan talks mediator but not as Army SPLA control over most of the south. counter negative publicity among ‘Anglo-Saxons’. Commander.

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