www.africa-confidential.com 7 November 2003 Vol 44 No 22 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL KENYA 2 The best money can buy No chance, Mr President Party officials and military commanders are ignoring President ‘Why hire a lawyer when you can buy a judge?’ is a well-worn joke Mugabe’s orders to surrender their farms that the younger reformers in Several government ministers and senior military officers accused of grabbing farms are refusing to hand President Kibaki’s government want to make redundant. But their efforts them back to the state, according to a new report on land reform ordered by President . are being undermined by veteran Information Minister , Local Government Minister and 13 other politicians and business people who ministers have secured several farms in violation of the government’s ‘one man, one farm’ rule, the report are using the purge of the judiciary says. Details of ministers’ and officers’ holdings are contained in a confidential annexe to the main report, to destroy their opponents. which has been discussed in cabinet. Mugabe asked former Secretary to the Government Charles Utete to investigate the findings of an GHANA 3earlier land audit by the Minister of State in Deputy President ’s office, Flora Buka. This had found major abuses of the land resettlement programme by senior officials (AC Vol 44 No 4). Buka’s Politics get crude audit reported that some of the worst violations of the land reform policy were perpetrated by Mugabe’s The row over crude oil supplies to closest political allies, such as Air Vice-Marshall Perence Shiri, Minister Moyo and Mugabe’s sister, the state-owned Volta River . Authority is turning into a full-scale The Utete report, which was given a stronger investigative team than Buka’s, found that 178 political battle ahead of next year’s Zimbabweans, drawn predominantly from the political and military elite, had broken the terms of the land general elections. The head of the resettlement programme; Buka found just 41 wrongdoers. Some named have suggested that Buka’s VRA has resigned, the company slips further into debt and power report was a conspiracy by allies of presidential aspirant and Speaker of Parliament Emmerson supplies become more erratic. Mnangagwa to weaken his rivals, such as Defence Minister Sidney Sekeramayi. Although Mnangagwa is one of Zimbabwe’s wealthiest politicians, none of the land investigations has criticised his operations. Buka’s list of those violating the ‘one man, one farm’ rule included: Sekeramayi; Provincial Governors LIBERIA 4 Eliot Manyika, Peter Chanetsa, Josiah Hungwe; newspaper publishers Ibbo Mandaza and Mutumwa Taylor’s shadow Mawere; and Barclays Bank Chief Executive Alex Jongwe. Accusing fingers are pointing at Keeping the farms in the family ousted President Charles Taylor over new fighting in Nimba County. Only a few of those Buka named appear to have obeyed Mugabe’s order in July that they should keep just Rebuilding a base there would allow one of the farms they had been allocated and return the rest to the state. Moyo announced that he had Taylor to launch attacks into both withdrawn claims to an additional farm on 4 August. He is currently registered as the owner of one farm Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire, whose and his mother is registered as the new owner of another. About 24,000 acres of farmland (some 10,000 sponsorship of rebel militias critically hectares) had been handed back but the worst cases of land grabbing remain. weakened his regime. The Zimbabwe National Army commander, General Constantine Chiwenga, and Air Force Commander Shiri are also reported to have returned some of their allocated farms to the state. Yet Africa Confidential SOMALIA 6 has learned that no further action is to be taken against Shiri, a business and political ally of Mugabe’s, who was identified as owning at least three farms: one was the 3,600-acre Eirin Farm in Marondera, over New hopes, new three times the maximum size allowed. Shiri was described in Buka’s audit as trying to evict from Eirin dangers 96 landless families who had been allocated the farm under the government’s resettlement scheme. Although the bulk of Utete’s report has now been made public, the annexe listing 178 high-ranking Somalia’s peace deal is close to collapse. After the signing of the Zimbabweans violating the rules on land resettlement is being kept secret. On the first drafts of the full ceasefire a year ago in Eldoret, report circulated to cabinet, there was a note on page 97 referring to a secret annexe which would be made Kenya, the current talks there on available separately. To date, only a handful of people have been able to see and make copies of the reconciliation and power sharing annexe, presumably to limit political embarrassment. were meant to lay the basis for the The list includes Peter Chanetsa, Governor of Mashonaland West (Mugabe’s home province), whose restoration of a national government. More than half the Somali factions household is reported to own nine farms – one each for him and his wife, and one for each of their seven have walked away from the talks. children. One of the nine farms was handed over last month to the newly elected member of parliament for Makonde, Kindness Paradza. Mugabe appoints all provincial governors. Chanetsa was the government’s chief of protocol for the first decade of Mugabe’s rule. Governors chair the provincial land committee, which is mandated to allocate land under the resettlement programme. The Utete committee POINTERS 8 reported a turf war Mashonaland West. There Minister of Lands Joseph Made, Governor Chanetsa and EU/Africa, Nigeria & the provincial party Chairman, are quarrelling over the right to allocate land. In Matebeleland, Governor is reported to have three farms amounting to 75,000 acres. Equatorial Guinea 7 November 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 22

from Lee Muthoga, the senior counsel on one of the tribunals. The KENYA two have been engaged in a 20-year feud dating back to when Muthoga presided over a discredited enquiry that forced Charles Njonjo, one of Moi’s most powerful rivals, out of the cabinet on charges of treason. Joseph Kamotho, another of Moi’s cabinet ministers, proposed that The best money can buy judges from Commonwealth countries sit on the tribunals. He was Kibaki’s reformers are purging the judges – ignored. The ‘Mount Kenya Mafia’, a powerful clique of Kikuyu to much applause politicians, is trying to control the purge. Justice Minister Kiraitu Murungi, doyen of Mount Kenya, together with his assistant Minister ‘Why hire a lawyer when you can buy a judge?’ runs a well-worn Robinson Githae and Solicitor General Wanjuki Mucemi, are Kenyan joke. It’s a joke that reformers in President Mwai Kibaki’s responsible for appointing acting judges to replace those suspended. government want to make redundant. The younger intake of ministers ‘They’re replacing one set of lackeys with another,’ was one complaint. and advisors argue that root and branch reform of the judicial system We hear Mount Kenya was instrumental in the supsension of is key to cleaning up politics. Yet their efforts are being undermined Kwach. Whatever evidence of corruption may be adduced against by veteran politicians and business people who are using the purge of him, his removal will be politically expedient for the government. the judiciary as a way to destroy their opponents but lay open the Before December’s elections, Kibaki promised Kwach, a Luo, the reforms to charges of witch-hunting and score-settling. position of Chief Justice. But when Bernard Chunga resigned from Now 23 of the 56 senior judges have been suspended, following a the position in February (rather than face a tribunal himself), he was report into judicial corruption by Aaron Ringera, head of the Kenya succeeded by Evans Gicheru, a Kikuyu and old friend of Mount Anti-Corruption Authority (KACA). The judges will face tribunals, Kenya Mafia members. due to convene next month, which could lead to their dismissal and Four of the other Appeal Court judges, Shah, Lakha, Owuor and Ole prosecution. The most radical overhaul of the judiciary since Keiuwa, face allegations of gross misconduct; they also threw out a Independence in 1963 is causing mayhem in the courts but winning petition filed by Kibaki challenging Moi’s election victory in 1997. praise. United States Secretary of State Colin Powell, visiting last month, led the accolades – a welcome relief for a government which Bribes, sex and drugs faces growing criticism at home and abroad. Whatever the personal and political pressures for reform, the Ringera report shows a judicial system in crisis: Dead-end probes under Moi ● Appeal and High Court judges took bribes from both parties and Under President Daniel arap Moi, Kenyans became used to official then ruled in favour of the more generous. In exchange for a 6 million enquiries that hid more than they revealed. Government investigations Kenya shilling (US$76,000) bribe, a judge found for a politically were launched into the 1990 assassination of Foreign Minister Robert connected litigant in a major corruption case – even though the courts Ouko, the Goldenberg Scandal, politically motivated ethnic clashes, were in recess, he wasn’t the judge hearing the case and he made the official corruption and a host of murders and man-made disasters. ruling from his home in the middle of the night. Some were never published; all dragged on for years, thanks to ● Judges and magistrates of both sexes are accused of demanding government obstruction, prevarication and intimidation. The judicial sexual favours from defendants, litigants and lawyers in exchange for investigations have continued under Kibaki. Enquiries into Goldenberg a positive verdict. and Ouko have been reopened, as has an inquest into the death of ● A judge collected a KSh3 mn. bribe from a plaintiff at midnight in American priest John Kaiser. the underground car park of the Hilton Hotel in Nairobi. A further The Ringera report is little short of revolutionary, naming some of installment was left for him at the reception two days later. the countries senior lawyers and judges in a ‘list of shame’. Of twelve ● A judge presiding over the trial of Ibrahim Akasha on charges of judges sitting in the Appeal Court, six have been suspended: Richard drug trafficking was regularly entertained at the defendant’s home Kwach, who himself wrote a report on judicial corruption in 1999; while the case was in court. Akasha was acquitted. Moijo ole Keiuwa, also president of the East African Court of Justice; According to the report, it costs anything up to $190,000 to bribe an Abdul Lakha, Amrital Shah, Effie Owuor and Philip Waki. Appeal Court judge, $20,000 for a High Court judge and $2,000 for a Of the High Court’s 44 judges, 17 have also been suspended, as have magistrate. As little as $500 will quash a murder conviction, while 82 of the country’s 254 magistrates. Some want even more radical $250 will secure an acquittal on rape charges. A judge told Africa surgery. A source close to a Commonwealth legal panel which Confidential that at least 20 per cent of the inmates in Kenyan gaols assessed Kenya’s judiciary last year said that just a handful of the 310 were wrongfully imprisoned – because they could not afford to pay a judges and magistrates met the required standards of honesty and bribe. efficiency. This week, the Law Society of Kenya said eight more Magistrates also abuse the system. One gaoled a police constable for senior judges not named by Ringera should be suspended. not bowing before him in a grocer’s shop. Another would visit the Government critics question the criteria used to single out particular homes of defendants and size up their assets before working out how judges for suspension. Appeal Court judge Emmanuel O’Kubasu, much to extort from them. Another would force patrons in his local bar for example, has been widely criticised but Ringera doesn’t mention to pay his food and drinks bill and have them charged with fictitious him. O’Kubasu stridently denies wrongdoing. crimes if they refused. Many judges and magistrates are brazen in their Accusations of political selectivity in the judicial purge raise questions abuse of office, picking up nicknames such as ‘cash box’ and ‘toll of fairness. Accused judges have now been tried and convicted in the station’ from weary lawyers and police officers. media without being given the opportunity to defend themselves. Corruption is endemic in the judicial system. Poorly qualified Those accused will face tribunals and answer to colleagues who may lawyers, who themselves may have bribed to pass their bar have private vendettas against them. High Court Judge Richard examinations, freely accept the corruption culture. Most bother only Kuloba has already resigned, saying he could not expect a fair trial with those clients who can afford to pay the judge. The police force,

2 7 November 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 22 even more corrupt than the judiciary, needs an even more thorough NDC’s energy spokesman, Seidu Adamu. purge. Few of those detained are ever charged if they pay off the The VRA tangle involves Sahara Energy Resources (see Box), the arresting officer. company (owned by Nigerians, registered in the Isle of Man, a British Poor defendants can languish on remand for years in horrifying dependency) which controversially won the contract to lift Ghana’s conditions. Most allegations of torture are made by prisoners awaiting 30,000 barrels-per-day allocation from the Nigerian National Petroleum trial as officers try to beat a confession out of them. The Independent Corporation (NNPC) in March 2001, in the early months of NPP rule. Medico-Legal Unit, a human rights group, was given permission to Ghana’s allocation from NNPC is widely regarded as a political favour carry out 81 impartial post mortems over a two-year period. It from President Olusegun Obasanjo to his friend Kufuor (AC Vol 44 concluded in 80 instances that death resulted from torture – and No 14); military regimes in Nigeria long used allocations of crude to maintains this is the tip of an iceberg. fellow African states as a form of oil-fired diplomacy. In December 2001, Kwame Nyantekyi-Owusu, Sahara’s Selecting judicial targets representative in Ghana, secured an additional contract to supply VRA Getting judicial reform – which means dealing with criticisms of with Bonny Light crude for its big Aboadze thermal power plant. VRA selectivity – is critical for the government’s standing. It has made buys up to US$90 million of crude annually; Sahara was competing with little headway in staunching corruption; many who initially supported UK-based Arcadia and Glencore. Arcadia was represented in Ghana by the Kibaki government say that corruption is as rampant as it was Tropix, owned by a consortium of well-connected Ghanaians but under Moi, although the commercial deals are more intelligently apparently not connected enough. Sahara won the contract against its structured to disguise their origins. Tropix/Arcadia competitors, prompting charges of foul play from the Cabinet members have been dragging their feet over other key losers. Sahara now has a near monopoly grip on crude supplies to reforms, such as spinning out the drafting of a new constitution. Little Ghana, much to the chagrin of its rivals. headway is being made into the investigation of Crispin Odhiambo In fact neither Sahara nor Tropix are oil producers or even major Mbai’s murder while the government is persisting with charges international traders, which raises questions about the wisdom of VRA against David Makali, editor of the Nairobi Sunday Standard which contracting them. Critics accuse them of being well connected reported that Mbai’s killers had confessed to being hired by a senior commission agents. Ian Griffiths Randolph, who was linked to Sahara government politician. Many Kenyans believed they would be better and now works for Tropix, alleges that Sahara falsely claimed $1.73 mn. served if the police started to investigate Makali’s allegations more from the VRA in penalty and demurrage charges. These allegations thoroughly. were investigated by VRA Chairman Ofori-Atta without the knowledge of his board or his Chief Executive. Gregory Driot of Arcadia also questioned Sahara’s right to claim penalty payments. GHANA The bigger complaint was that Sahara had been supplying the VRA’s Aboadze plant with Nigeria’s cheaper Okono crude and not the Bonny Light specified in the contract. The substitution of the cheaper crude has Politics get crude caused, we hear, technical problems at the Aboadze plant. Sahara was keen to use Nigeria’s Okono crude to which it had been given exclusive Money, oil and scandals are the key to pre- access because of high-level political connections in Abuja. In some election politics months, however, there was not enough Okono available for the VRA The row over crude oil supplies to the state-owned Volta River contract and Sahara bought crude from other sources – including its Authority is turning into a full-scale political battle in the run up to rivals at Arcadia. next year’s general elections. The key figure is VRA’s ex-Chief Executive, Charles Yves Wereko-Brobby, a former leading More debts, no power opposition politician who resigned, along with the entire VRA board, Any losses from the Sahara contract will worsen the VRA’s already headed by Jones Ofori-Atta, in late September. parlous financial position. It will be saddled with further debt for a Wereko-Brobby had earlier been forced to ‘step aside’ after VRA rented 110 megawatt emergency power plant, which has not worked workers threatened industrial action to shut down the national power since it was delivered to Tema in 2002; the rental was $1.375 mn. per supply. After serving for a decade as an energy advisor to the previous month, amounting over the period to more than $10 mn. VRA also owes government of Flight Lieutenant Jerry Rawlings, Wereko-Brobby $50 mn. to Côte d’Ivoire’s power statal, the Compagnie Ivoirienne formed his own party, the United Ghana Movement and ran against d’Electricité, for power imported to meet Ghana’s generating deficit, as President John Agyekum Kufuor in the 2000 elections. One condition electricity demand surged and water in the Volta Lake fell. The for his VRA appointment was that he put the UGM ‘on hold’, an Akosombo hydro-electric dam, once Ghana’s main power source, now agreement that may now lapse. He has a small political following produces less than the costlier thermal power stations, so more crude oil, independent of the two big parties, Kufuor’s New Patriotic Party and as well as more electric power, must be imported. Rawlings’s National Democratic Congress. The VRA’s workers, having helped to force out Wereko-Brobby and Although the President personally appointed Wereko-Brobby, his board, smell blood. The five-member interim management committee stalwarts of the governing NPP applauded his departure. They had now running the VRA faces a hard round of pay talks – all the harder long doubted his suitability to run the VRA, which the World Bank since they may set precedents for other public-service claims ahead of once called one of Africa’s best run state companies. The row revives the elections. The public sector unions, frustrated by Rawlings and the allegations of corruption levelled against it under the NPP government NDC in 2000, helped the NPP to victory in the towns that year. The – and Kufuor’s election campaign made much of his ‘zero tolerance’ VRA’s growing losses since the power crisis of 1998 have built up debts of corruption (AC Vol 44 No 10). Three separate committees of which put extra pressure on its government subsidy. enquiry have failed to establish impropriety during Wereko-Brobby’s Even if the government’s investigations show no financial malfeasance two-year stint at VRA and he is suing for libel over statements by the in VRA’s oil dealings, there have been serious technical problems at

3 7 November 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 22 Gaius says good-bye

The sacking of Jackson Gaius Obaseki, Managing Director of the Nigerian Edmund Dakoro (another former MD of NNPC) formerly worked for National Petroleum Corporation, on 3 November, is linked to the growing Anglo-Dutch Shell, which produces almost half Nigeria’s 2.3 million problems with well connected firm Sahara Energy Resources in Ghana and barrels per day (bpd). Kupolukun’s rival for the top job, Greg Ero, was at home in Nigeria. President Olusegun Obasanjo carpeted Obaseki over close to Obasanjo’s critic, Vice-President Atiku Abubakar. Kupolukun’s the award of new lifting contracts in Nigeria under which, it was claimed, last job was chief Energy Advisor to Obasanjo and he also served on the NNPC gave Sahara preferential treatment. These contracts were cancelled Petroleum Pricing Commission, which advocated the recent price increases. on the advice of Obasanjo’s former Special Advisor on Oil Rilwanu That policy will probably continue, especially as it fits the reform plans Lukman, who resigned on 7 October after opposing the government’s stand of new Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (and of the International on petroleum price increases (AC Vol 44 No 20). Monetary Fund). NNPC will for the first time have to pay the full market Obaseki irritated local oil barons because of his close ties with Italy’s price for crude for the domestic market, now fixed at the equivalent of $18 Agip oil company, at the expense of some of the bigger oil operators. per barrel. Problems with Nigeria’s four refineries have over the past two Obaseki also ruffled feathers in the investigation of the March oil theft from years diverted much of the domestic allocation of 450,000 bpd on to the spot Ghana’s offshore Saltpond field (AC passim), which led to the arrest of the market. Officials believe the switch yielded the NNPC an undeclared managing director of Nigerian trader Ocean & Oil, Paul Gite Okoloko. windfall of at least $1.5 billion in 2002. Obaseki travelled to Côte d’Ivoire to quiz its national oil company, Okonjo-Iweala has won the right to have all NNPC accounts monitored Petroci, about irregular deliveries of Nigerian crude to its refinery. Although by the Finance Ministry and persuaded Obasanjo to sign the Extractive Obasanjo initially requested the investigation, the political establishment Industries Transparency Initiative championed by British Premier Tony blamed Obaseki for allowing the scandal to spin out of control, damaging the Blair. ‘We will publish what we earn from oil’, a minister told Africa company. Several establishment figures including a state governor have Confidential, ‘and we’ll use the EITI programme to make the oil companies been linked to Ocean & Oil. Obaseki, although sacked, may hold on to his disclose what they earn’. influence in the NNPC. In September, without asking its board, he At present, the major oil companies in Nigeria make public only their own appointed new managers for the company, widely regarded as ‘Obaseki’s percentage of the price per barrel of oil produced and studiously avoid boys’. We hear they will keep their jobs. giving information about other income generated locally, for example from The new Managing Director, Funsho Kupolukun, is an oil industry leasing rigs or from technology and service contracts. Nigeria’s oil industry technocrat favoured by Obasanjo and his National Security Advisor, Aliyu has some of the world’s highest operating costs and critics have long Mohammed Gusau. Both Kupolukun, and Obasanjo’s new Energy Advisor, suspected the oil majors of inflating prices.

Aboadze, the biggest single thermal generator. On 4 August, the plant whose reputation for unreliability and corruption is still growing. shut down because a delivery of fuel, scheduled to arrive four weeks Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund will make new loans earlier, did not turn up. VRA said the plant could no longer afford a only if water and electricity prices are high enough to cover full costs. buffer stock of three weeks’ fuel, because crude was expensive and the The government promised the IMF it would privatise Ghana Authority’s finances were tight. Imports from neighbouring Côte Commercial Bank, 48 per cent state-owned, but there are residual d’Ivoire plug the energy gap. Politicians from the NDC minority in doubts about this. After several flip-flops, the government has agreed parliament demand a parliamentary investigation into the VRA debacle. to the Automatic Petroleum Products Pricing Formula, under which fuel consumer prices should be adjusted in line with the world market Moving up the graft index price of crude. If spot oil prices remain high into election year, forcing The latest report by Transparency International (TI) shows Ghana’s up domestic prices again, the NPP will find it hard to hold the loyalty rating on its Corruption Perception Index up from 51 to 73 among 133 of those hard pressed voters in the towns. countries. Kufuor calls on those who allege corruption within his government to produce proof. Critics say the anti-corruption institutions have been weak since the NPP came to power. After almost three LIBERIA/SIERRA LEONE years, the Serious Fraud Office has no confirmed executive director or governing board, as the law requires. These appointments, like the top job at the VRA, are made by the president. The belated establishment Taylor’s shadow in July of an Office of Accountability within the Office of the President did little to appease frustrated Ghanaians or for Western There is a new government but no real peace governments, which made setting it up a condition for more debt relief. and far too few peacekeepers Apart from gaoling former Youth and Sports Minister Malam Renewed fighting in Liberia’s north-east Nimba County rings alarm Yusuf Issa in 2001 and recently sacking eight district chief executives bells across the region. Fingers are pointing at ousted President (all presidential appointees), almost all government action against Charles Ghankay Taylor, now exiled in south-eastern Nigeria, who official corruption has so far involved allegations against members of in 1989 launched seven years of civil war by bringing a guerrilla band the former NDC government. into Nimba across the border from Côte d’Ivoire. Rebuilding a base The government’s other big problem, the stagnant economy, looks there would allow Taylor to launch attacks into both Guinea and Côte even more troubling. Kufuor promised a ‘golden age for business’; a d’Ivoire, whose sponsorship of new Liberian rebels critically weakened recent independent survey claimed that most Ghanaians feel worse off his regime. than one year ago. The government must decide fairly soon on several Taylor’s current host, President Olusegun Obasanjo, warned him politically sensitive economic issues, notably water privatisation and to keep out of Liberian politics; security officers had reported that state-owned Ghana Airways, whose debts stand at $160 mn. and Taylor was giving orders from Nigeria to militiamen within Liberia. 4 7 November 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 22

Liberia’s President Gyude Bryant, installed only on 14 October, Speaker of the Transitional Parliament, provoked a demonstration by wants Taylor to face trial at the United Nations Special Court in Sierra over 100 female relatives of a man who was murdered along with his Leone, of which the hearings opened last week with representatives of entire family some years ago. The women, all dressed in white, those indicted, including Taylor, arguing for their indictments to be claimed that Dweh, a first cousin of former President Samuel Kanyon quashed. Doe’s, had played a part in the murder. Nevertheless, on 27 October, Taylor’s lawyers argued that he was immune from indictment, on 17 parliament (with representatives of women’s and youth organisations counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity, because he was abstaining) elected Dweh, the only candidate. As Minister for head of state when the charges were issued last June. The prosecution Presidential Affairs and as Managing Director of the National Ports claims he was largely responsible for Sierra Leone’s war, because he Authority, LURD nominated Jackson Doe and Cheaye Doe, the late oversaw the trafficking of guns and diamonds with the rebels of the President’s brothers. Revolutionary United Front (RUF). Prosecutor David Crane argues Bryant was also reluctant to confirm some Taylor supporters in that Taylor should be turned over immediately because, amid the government jobs but did accept Daniel Chea as Defence Minister – fragile regional peace, he ‘threatens to plunge the region into fear’. the same post he held in Taylor’s government – while about 150 From afar, the United States Congress has called for Taylor to be serving soldiers claimed that Chea owed them more than two years’ handed over, by force if necessary, to answer the charges. This is back pay. Model, which nominated Thomas Nimely as Foreign awkward for Obasanjo, who is proud of Nigeria’s role as regional Minister, has at times linked up with civil society organisations in power-broker and, at times, gendarme. Christopher Kolade, Nigeria’s criticising the lack of transparency and sincerity of the process. High Commissioner in London, says his government is committed to Bryant’s skill has – so far – kept all players on side, perhaps helped upholding international law and institutions such as the Special Court by the promise of substantial international funding, especially from (of which the USA is usually suspicious). Obasanjo’s government, the USA, which has been encouraging Abuja’s leadership in the UN already criticised by radicals for being too pro-American, would not Mission in Liberia (UNMIL). The danger is that the Mission may be want to seem to do Washington’s bidding by handing over Taylor, seen as dominated by Nigeria, like the operations under the auspices especially if the USA kidnapped him. of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) in the Taylor’s trial would mark the first time that an African ruler, forced 1990s. The peacekeeping commander is General Daniel Opande of from power by a combination of diplomacy and military pressure, Kenya, almost certainly with a Nigerian deputy. faced an internationally recognised court. Who would be next? In fact soldiers loyal to LURD and Model still control much of Taylor, a protégé of Libya’s Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi and ally Liberia. UNMIL’s 4,300 peacekeepers remain concentrated in of Burkina Faso’s Blaise Compaoré, still has friends in Africa. Monrovia until the Mission reaches its planned strength of 15,000. Amid the long-winded Liberia peace talks in Accra, even Ghana’s The USA promises it money, with high priority for disarmament, government refused to hand him over on the grounds that the arrest demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) of combatants. However, the warrants had not been properly drafted. US$50 million programme can start only when the remaining 10,000- plus troops arrive, probably by mid-January. The UN force may not Counting on the UN peacekeepers get many volunteers, given the reputations of indisciplined Liberian President Bryant must hope that the planned 15,000-strong UN fighters with no clear affiliations. In mid-October, men said to follow peacekeeping force will help to stabilise things. Almost nobody Taylor burned villages in Grand Bassa County and attacked a motorcade expects an early improvement. The UN Secretary General’s Special carrying Model’s Nimely. Envoy, Jacques Paul Klein, said last month: ‘In the transition period, A new report from the Brussels-based International Crisis Group we have to accept that things will get worse before they get better’. He (ICG) says the next two or three months could be dangerous. The blamed most of the residual fighting on out-of-control rebel current balance between LURD, Model and Taylor loyalists is unstable commanders trying to grab resources before the UN deployed. and could break down fast if the UN Mission stumbles or fails to The peace deal signed in August settled for power-sharing between deliver on its promises. There are thought to be about 7,000 genuine members of the former government; the rebel Liberians United for Taylor-loyalists and the affinities of another 20,000 or so of his former Reconciliation and Democracy and the Movement for Democracy and fighters are unclear. Liberia’s hardened warlords would exploit a Elections in Liberia (Model), as well as the civilian opposition. The security vacuum; Klein (a US diplomat who worked with the UN in UN, though, demands that the transitional government should include Bosnia-Herzegovina) calls them ‘gangsters’. There could also be only ‘individuals of high moral character and integrity, with untainted more interference from nearby governments – Guinea backing LURD’s past records’. LURD is pressing hard for nominees who may not fit present leaders, Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo backing Model. that bill, including its military commander, Aliyu Sheriff, as the new The ICG wants the UN to integrate the work of its three West Chief of Staff of the Liberian army; its former Netherlands-based African missions, with UN peacekeepers in Sierra Leone and Côte spokesperson, Charles Bennie, as Commissioner of Customs; and a d’Ivoire monitoring, and if necessary disarming, combatants who founding member, Isaac Nyanebo, as Vice-Governor of the Central cross from Liberia: ‘Regional stability depends largely on stopping Bank of Liberia. the flow of marauding fighters who migrate from conflict to conflict’. Bryant at first rejected these three but LURD insisted and showed The UN World Food Programme has managed to move outside the its muscle on 25 October by closing the strategic Po River Bridge, 17 capital, resuming food distribution at the end of October to nearly kilometres west of Monrovia, to all UN and other aid agencies. The 100,000 displaced people in camps at Totota, Salala and Kakata on the movement’s leader, Sekou Conneh, threatened to pull out of the Monrovia-Gbarngba road. It is waiting for UNMIL before it delivers government; Sheriff ordered some of his forces to regroup in food to the larger towns of Harper and Voinjama, which an advance Tubmanburg, 60 km. north-west of Monrovia. On 27 October, Bryant UN team found in ruins, its remaining population of around 15,000 backed down, agreed to review the nominees and announced a ‘process people traumatised, lacking proper shelter, and many sick or injured. of consultation’ among the signatories to the August peace plan. The second city, Buchanan, still informally controlled by Model, is The nomination of another of LURD’s founders, George Dweh, as not too badly damaged but has no electricity or running water.

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(Cayr/Habr Gidir) controlling Kismayo; Abdirizak Isaq Bihi (Rer SOMALIA Siyad/Marehan), active in Gedo; Col. Ahmed Omar Jess (Mohamed Zuber/Ogaden), who has some influence in Lower and Middle Jubba. Musa can also count on Jama Ali Jama (Osman Mahamud/ Majerteen), defeated in 2001 by Abdullahi Yussef in Puntland, in the New hopes, new dangers north-east. Even closer are some of Mogadishu’s political-military Politicians try to fill the expanding power leaders, especially Osman Hasan Ato (Rer Hilowle/Saad/Habr Gidir), vacuum as faction alliances collapse Mohamed Jama Furuh (Saleban/Habr Gidir), whose militias control Mogadishu’s international port, Engineer Mohamed Hussein Addow Somalia’s peace process is close to collapse, according to regional (Ujejen/Mudullod), Farah Weheliye Addow ‘Sindiko’ (Agonyere/ leaders meeting in Kampala, Uganda, on 25 October. After the Abgal), a former official of the Fédération Internationale de Football signing of the ceasefire a year ago in Eldoret, current talks in Kenya Association (FIFA). Some of these people have converged with on reconciliation and power-sharing were meant to lay the basis for Abdiqasim Salad mainly through deep hostility to Ethiopia and the restoration of a national government. Instead, more than half the annoyance with Kenya’s management of the conference, first through Somali factions (especially those that occupy, but can’t administer, ex-President Daniel arap Moi’s veteran minister Elijah Mwangale, territory south of Mogadishu) have walked away from the talks in then through Moi’s veteran civil servant Kiplagat. Kenya and formed a ‘Somali National Salvation Council’ (SNSC). The TNG’s aim now is to set up a new conference paid for with Arab Those who remain are mostly those allied to Ethiopia, the power and/or Islamic money. A delegation led by Abdiqasim went to the behind the conference. Organisation of Islamic Conference meeting in Malaysia last month The SNSC dissidents see the federal model prescribed in the interim and the Mogadishu press reported discussions about financing a new constitution as a way of dividing Somalia to the profit of Addis Ababa peace conference. Abdiqasim also went to see the Libyan leader, Col. and they want an alternative process with Arab backing, especially Moammar el Gadaffi twice in October. African leaders often go to from Libya and Yemen. Western observers of the process would like Tripoli when short of cash. to prevent ‘peace processes’ and even ‘governments’ from multiplying, The TNG knows that an extension of its mandate is more and more which could prove fatal to peace and stability. likely to be challenged. The interim constitution adopted when the The SNSC is presided over by Musa Sudi Yalahow (Daud/ TNG was formed at the Arta conference in 2000 provided for the Wabudhan/Abgal), who until September had refused to recognise the mandate to expire in August 2003 (AC Vol 44 No 16); the TNG’s Transitional National Government formed in 2000. Now, for the time delegation was not allowed to attend the annual meeting of the being, he is allied with what remains of the TNG, led by Abdiqasim International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Dubai in September. Salad Hasan, widely seen as just another faction since it split early For the SNSC, things are more ambiguous. Perhaps because of this year. A group of ministers and parliamentarians under Premier Eldoret/Mbagathi, Musa Sudi has transformed himself into a leader Hassan Abshir and Speaker Abdullahi Deerow linger on in Mbagathi, who takes advice, listens and forges alliances well beyond his own clan the Nairobi suburb to which the peace talks moved from Eldoret. – the opposite of what he’s been doing for over ten years. Bare Hirale and Habsade know that their power can last only within IGAD jostles a much wider alliance, to counterweigh Addis Ababa. The Mbagathi Kenya has won praise for trying to make peace in Sudan and would conference and the international presence (United States, African like to rescue its mediation role on Somalia. After the heads of state Union, Arab League, European Union) have convinced them that they and government of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development need to institutionalise their power. Apart from the JVA, which has set had met in Kampala, their foreign ministers gathered on 28 October up a shaky district council in Kismayo, no faction leader has established in Nairobi. Ugandan Foreign Minister Augustine Nsimye invited all a representative system, whether through lack of political will, the Somali factions to a meeting, scheduled for 20 November in incompetence or fear of giving power to dangerous subordinates. Mombasa. IGAD’s mediation committee had been limited to Somalia’s The SNSC wants credibility. That means setting up where it is next-door neighbours, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya. On 25 October, strongest, in Mogadishu but the TNG might not accept a sort of the IGAD leaders brought in all its members, adding Eritrea, Sudan government which it does not control in the capital. How can any and Uganda, which should dilute Ethiopia’s powerful influence. government avoid collapse, as in the autumn of 1998, which left the Djibouti, which walked out on 19 October, is now walking back to the field open to the Islamic courts? How will the funds which Libya will table. promise and perhaps disburse be shared out? How can a political Eritrea and Sudan have tended to support the TNG and its allies, process be rooted in political reality, not just in the faction game? now including the SNSC. Khartoum’s National Islamic Front government smiles on those who also play the Arab and Islamic cards. Independent militias Uganda has friends everywhere; there are even Hawiye and Darod All factions are weaker than a year ago. Their divisions are visible, the merchants around President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. The growing independence of their militias all too evident; for example, resignation of Kenya’s mediator, Bethwel Kiplagat, may be on the the Omar Finish militias in south Mogadishu’s Medina area are a horizon. He has tended to negotiate with each leader individually and problem for Musa Sudi. The TNG has split into one faction in Kenya, then propose a text said to amalgamate their views. Proposals have one in Mogadishu, a faction which is itself split into two. Both TNG rarely been discussed in full session. Many Somali participants also and SNSC want to restore normal life to the capital, a tough assignment. see some Ethiopian diplomats as arrogant. In the past year, the kidnapping industry has developed to the point The SNSC’s Musa Sudi has a list of vice-presidents: Mohamed where some businessmen have reluctantly moved themselves and their Ibrahim Habsade (Leysan/Rahanweyn) controlling Baidoa; Colonel families to Kenya or the United Arab Emirates. At the end of Shire Bare Hirale (Rer Dini/Marehan), who shares the leadership of October, nine people were being held to ransom in Mogadishu. the Jubba Valley Alliance (JVA) with Col. Yussef Mireh Serar The factions, aware of their weakness, have agreed to the formation

6 7 November 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 22 Al Qaida warning Usama bin Laden’s Al Qaida network could be preparing to attack used in the Mombasa attack may have been stolen from this stockpile by Western targets in Africa for a third time, a panel of experts warned the renegade elements of Aydeed’s militia and then sold on to Islamist militants. United Nations Security Council last week. Surface-to-air missiles and Small and portable, the missiles are believed to be transported in small explosives may have been smuggled into Somalia from Yemen, says a fishing vessels sailing the Red Sea between Yemen and Somalia. Coalition report presented to Council members by a panel monitoring the UN arms warships inspect only larger ships for terror-related arsenal and do not have embargo on Somalia. the mandate to confiscate traditional battle weapons bound for Somalia, At least one attack, believed to be an attempt to blow up the US Embassy despite the eleven-year arms embargo. Light weapons, such as Kalashnikovs in Nairobi in June, was foiled but terrorists have been able to move at will and hand grenades, are used in training new recruits to Al Itahaad al Islamiya between the Middle East and Somalia, despite large numbers of Western (Islamic Union) the outlawed terrorist organisation which Washington forces in the region, including from the United States and Britain. French classes as an Al Qaida proxy group. and German naval patrols monitoring shipping lanes in the Red Sea and The USA is increasingly concerned about the apparent re-emergence of Al western Indian Ocean have failed to prevent hundreds of tonnes of weaponry Itahaad, which scattered after 11 September 2001 (AC Vol 42 No 19). The being transported into Somalia, much of it from Yemen, over the last six murders of two British teachers and award-winning Italian doctor Annalena months. Tonelli in breakaway Somaliland over the last two months are linked to the ‘On at least one occasion in the last 12 months, arms delivered illegally group, some diplomats say, though some consider the culprits more secular. to Somalia were employed in the commission of a terrorist attack in Kenya, At least four of the terrorists who carried out the Mombasa attacks are still although not successfully,’ reads a section of the 41-page report, a copy of in Somalia, according to the report. Fazul Abdallah Mohamed, alleged which Africa Confidential has obtained. ‘The panel believes that additional mastermind of that operation and the 1998 attacks on US embassies in weapons may have been imported into Somalia solely for the purpose of Kenya and Tanzania which killed 224 people, has also been spotted. carrying out further attacks in a neighbouring state.’ Security sources say Itahaad recruits are being trained in Somalia to carry Last November, Al Qaida militants narrowly missed shooting down an out terrorist attacks in Iraq. The group’s commander, Egyptian militant Israeli passenger jet taking off from Mombasa. They were using surface- Abdi Hassan Turki, has been seen in Iraq, while Somali Itahaad members to-air Strela-2 missiles smuggled through Somalia. Moments later, suicide were allegedly killed in a US raid in Faluja earlier this year, they said. bombers killed 16 people, mostly Kenyan workers, in an Israeli hotel north While there are several thousand US officers monitoring the Horn of of Mombasa. Components of the bomb, including its detonator, may have Africa from Djibouti, Washington is considering establishing a new base in come from Somalia, the report concludes. The panel warned that a number Kenya focusing on its remote and porous border with Somalia. We hear that of other Strela-2 missiles are missing and may have been ‘transported to an President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell have been undetermined location near the Kenyan border’. pressuring Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki to agree. Until he does, In May, at a cost of US$400,000, the USA allegedly bought 40 Strela-2 Washington is likely to maintain its advisory cautioning Americans against missiles from Somali warlord, Hussein Mohamed ‘Aydeed’, apparently travel to Kenya. A similar Foreign and Commonwealth Office warning, as to stop them falling into the wrong hands. Security sources say the missiles well as a ban on British Airways’ flights to Kenya, was lifted in July. of independent neighbourhood self-defence groups, ciidmada (Puntland) government, where his Vice-President Mohamed Abdi madaaniga (popular militias) of former police officers and youngsters, Hashi says he’s been away too long. The more serious risk is that the charging 2-3,000 Somali shillings (US$0.15) per house per night. factions will start fighting again. The TNG can never be recognised This is not enough to guarantee security. Violence used to be more or in the long term, whether by Ethiopia or the SNSC. less structured according to clan rules; today, with all the clans The international community has done little. During his October seriously divided, the violence is also fragmented and delinquent. Kenyan visit Kenya, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said little in Anyway, several of Mogadishu’s politico-military personalities public on Somalia; oil gives Sudan greater weight. Islamism triggers may not find ‘normalisation’ to their advantage. Mohamed Dhere, the only wider foreign government interest in Somalia at present but who also controls a good part of Middle Shabelle and its capital, Western involvement does not depend on Mogadishu’s cooperation. Jowhar, sometimes plays the game of the USA and Ethiopia in the ‘war Improvements for ordinary Somalis may not come quickly. on terrorism’ (grabbing a man allegedly involved in the Mombasa Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com terrorist attack last March). Hussein Mohamed Farah ‘Aydeed’ still Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at has militias at Villa Somalia and could cause trouble if Ethiopia asked 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. him to. Mohamed Qanyere is hesitating between Ethiopian offers of Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. money and ministry and making his faction secure in Mogadishu. Copyright reserved. Editor: Patrick Smith. Deputy Editors: Gillian Lusk and Thalia Griffiths. Administration: Clare Tauben and Juliet Amissah. Some business people have long found profits in instability. Bashir Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa Ragge runs the private Eseley airport and Eel Mahan port. Ahmed Confidential in advance: Dualeh Haf runs another of Mogadishu’s three airfields, at Kilometre Institutions: Africa £328 – UK/Europe £385 – USA $970 – ROW £502 50. Others smuggle weapons (see Box), including to Oromo opposition Corporates: Africa £424 – UK/Europe £472 – USA $1093 – ROW £589 Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £91 or USA $131 groups in Ethiopia, or hashish and cocaine to Ethiopia and Kenya. African Studies Assoc. members: UK/Europe £70 – Americas $102 – ROW £70 The current situation is reminiscent of that in 1997 between the All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept Sodere conference in January and the Cairo conference in December. American Express, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. Peace processes, even ‘governments’, may multiply but have little to Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 1354, 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2XG England. do with reality beyond a narrow band of land. Abdullahi Yussef, Tel: 44 (0)1865 778315 and Fax: 44 (0)1865 471775 bearing his Ethiopian endorsement, could go home and set up his Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. national presidency in Puntland but would face a crisis in his regional ISSN 0044-6483 7 7 November 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 22

Pointers NIGERIA EQUATORIAL GUINEA

EUROPEAN UNION/AFRICA Polio politics A coup that wasn’t There is growing frustration that a boycott of an We hear there’s some substance to speculation Money, perhaps immunisation campaign in northern Nigeria may in Equatorial Guinea’s capital of Malabo that be leading to a resurgence of poliomyelitis in the authorities foiled a coup attempt in late The European Commission proposes to spend the region. This would thwart international October. The government on 30 October 250 million euros to back peacekeeping hopes of making polio the second disease after furiously denied such rumours, which were operations in Africa and European Union smallpox to be eradicated worldwide. carried by Agence France Presse, the only ministers will soon decide whether to go ahead. In late October, an emergency vaccination international news agency with a local stringer, This was foreshadowed by Poul Nielson, the campaign was conducted across the region in Rodrigo Angue Nguema, who was arrested on Danish European Development Commissioner, response to a dozen children being paralysed in 3 November as an official enquiry into the affair speaking to the joint European Union-Africa, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Niger and Togo. The got under way. Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) Parliamentary polio virus affecting them was genetically traced Ministers acknowledge that there was an Assembly in October. Nielson had promised to northern Nigeria. Some 15 million children unusually heavy security presence around the July’s African Union summit meeting in are at risk from the failure to wipe out one of the airport, radio station and other strategic sites Mozambique that Europe would help make the world’s last reservoirs of the virus. Of the 414 during and after the weekend of 25-26 October. continent safer. AU chiefs of staff later met in cases reported internationally this year, 178 President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo Ethiopia to discuss the project. have been in northern Nigeria. also returned unexpectedly to Malabo at the The EU gesture follows the relative success ‘Nigeria is now the global polio epicentre same time, after spending months in Bata, the of Opération Artémis, the endeavour to pacify and the ripples are spreading. Just as we saw second city and alternative seat of government. the Bunia region of Congo-Kinshasa, which with SARS, polio knows no national boundaries Officially, they explain the deployment as ran from June to September. Artémis was led by and at the moment, children across western part of preparations for a regional summit. France but the fashionable principle is that Africa are in danger of being paralysed because Privately, they admit to ‘a security lapse’, African governments should have ‘ownership’ of the problem in northern Nigeria,’ warned Dr. something that European intelligence sources of, and financial responsibility for, peacemaking David Heymann, the United Nations World had been forecasting for some weeks. and peacekeeping in their own continent. The Health Organisation’s Special Representative Exactly how close the plot came to toppling proposed E250 mn. would supplement African on Polio Eradication. the government – and who might have been contributions and come from funds earmarked Thus there was deep consternation when the behind it – is unclear. President Obiang led the for aid to Africa, plus a bit extra. immunisation drive was cancelled in the only successful coup in the country’s history in Setting up the peace-keeping project could northern states of Kano, Kaduna and Zamfara in 1979. Yet alleged plots have been regularly take two years, at the very least. By 17 October, the wake of a virulent boycott campaign which uncovered, most recently in March last year. only 17 African governments (including the UN described as ‘propagated by Muslim Reports from Malabo say some of those Algeria, Mali and Senegal) had ratified a radicals who claimed that mass vaccinations detained in connection with the plot were from protocol creating a Peace and Security Council were part of a Western plot to curb population neighbouring states. This may point to the within the AU. For the protocol to take effect, growth by making people infertile and spreading increasingly troubled relations between 27 must sign up. Yet the ACP parliamentarians HIV.’ Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, embroiled in a (who have no actual power) welcomed the On 27 October, UN chiefs held an urgent bitter dispute over their maritime boundary. European Commission’s proposal; Philippe meeting with Vice-President Atiku Abubakar This might indicate an attempt at destabilisation Morillon, the French General who commanded to seek government intervention to end the or a pretext to delay negotiations. United Nations’ forces in Bosnia-Herzegovina ‘impasse around vaccine safety’. Atiku ordered There has also been tension within presidential in 1992-93 and is now in the European independent tests to be conducted to assure circles. In September, Teodorín Nguema Parliament, keenly advocates the regionalisation Nigerians the vaccines were safe. ‘Rumours Obiang Mangue, the President’s eldest son, of crisis management. He points out that about vaccinations are not new. In the current who holds the lucrative Forestry and Africans are most likely to understand Africa’s international atmosphere, there is so much Infrastructure portfolios, claimed that members cultural and historical problems. suspicion and paranoia that these rumours now of his family wanted to ‘destroy’ him, following Morillon will report on conflict prevention to fall on fertile ground’, a UN Children’s Fund the disarmament of his militia on the orders of the parliamentarians’ next meeting, in Addis spokesperson told Africa Confidential. ‘There’s his uncle, the Director of National Security, Ababa in early 2004. He wants the EU to focus no question that the vaccines are safe. They Armengol Nguema. its post-conflict work on social rehabilitation were tested before export and again on arrival in Many within the ruling clique are understood for ex-fighters and on education for former Nigeria. There are other political and to oppose El Jefe’s plan to groom Teodorín as child soldiers. He shares those priorities with infrastructural reasons why so few children are his successor (AC Vol 44 No 4): he is a wayward, Adolphe Onusumba, Vice-President of Congo- immunised.’ unpredictable character, whose business K’s new National Assembly, who told the ACP Unicef insists that government support is interests include a hip-hop record label in Los meeting of his anxiety about delays in delivering needed to initiate dialogue with religious and Angeles. The succession issue (and how the aid for demobilised child soldiers. He knows traditional leaders to allay the suspicions. spoils of the country’s booming 300,000 barrels the subject well; he was President of the rebel ‘Continued circulation of the polio virus in per day oil industry are divided within the elite) Rassemblement Congolais pour la Démocratie Nigeria puts the children of the sub-region and were the main reasons behind the March 2002 when it had at least 2,500 underage fighters. the continent at risk.’ coup plot. 8