www.africa-confidential.com 22 March 2002 Vol 43 No 6 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL 2 ZIMBABWE The nomenklatura ’s magic circle and their On the knife-edge business friends now face Neither side wants a power-sharing government but at least it might tightening economic ‘smart’ stop the violence sanctions from the and USA. But some of the Quietly, within days of the disputed 10-12 March presidential election, the outline of a deal between nomenklatura prepared for this by Zimbabwe’s warring political parties emerged. After two years of rising tension, with one of Africa’s attending an anti-sanctions most hopeful economies heading for the abyss, it looked like the last chance for political peace. Brokered seminar at a luxurious villa near by ’s President Thabo Mbeki and Nigeria’s President Olusegun Obasanjo, the deal Lake Kariba last year. proposes: a coalition government with ministers from all parties and some non-partisan figures; a review of recent oppressive laws on public assembly and the media; full implementation of the Abuja agreement BURUNDI 4stipulating orderly land redistribution, to be financed by Britain and international financial institutions. Also under discussion is the dropping of treason charges against , leader of the Alternating currents opposition Movement for Democratic Change, and its Secretary General, . Tsvangirai In Bujumbura politicians are was formally charged on 20 March in a move that will make negotiations even more problematic cooperating and South African Time is pressing. The mood in the streets of Harare and Bulawayo is angry and mainly backs the MDC; peacekeepers are settling down almost everyone believes Tsvangirai was cheated of victory. The anger is not just political. The United well. But the question is: what Nations World Food Programme says over 500,000 people are malnourished and three times as many happens when President Buyoya prepares to hand power to his have registered for food aid. Usually cautious commentators forecast maize-meal riots within weeks, opponents if the warring factions unless the government organises emergency distribution – not just to the ruling party’s supporters. haven’t agreed a ceasefire? Ragged election posters hang from lamp-posts and there are few signs of political mobilisation. In most towns, the elections were followed by an eerie normality yet politics are polarising. The MDC are Western poodles, ZANU-PF are brutal thugs. Frustrated MDC youths want more than ever to test NORTH AFRICA 5 themselves against the government’s youth militias. In its rural heartland, faith in the Zimbabwe African Cross-border National Union-Patriotic Front, lauded as the party of liberation, is higher than ever: the election has been won, land and cheaper food are promised. Only a comfortable few find any middle ground. pressures A ten-year ceasefire between Targetting MDC supporters Morocco and Polisario is in peril The chances of talks succeeding are slim, so both sides are taking side bets. President ’s now that the UN is threatening to pull out of Western Sahara. government has cut violence but selectively: some violence on farms has been halted but there have been Algeria’s growing military machine many retributive attacks on workers and farmers believed to have backed the opposition. At least two might tempt its government to people have been killed in post-election violence (but, unusually, within a day police arrested four challenge Rabat’s strategy in the suspects for the murder of a farmer, Terry Ford, on 18 March). Sahara. Several civil rights and student groups say they plan a mass disobedience campaign. On 18 March, the Zimbabwe Congress of Trades Unions called on all workers to stay away from their workplaces on 20- OIL 6 22 March, in protest against harassment of workers and unionists. ZCTU’s Secretary General, Wellington Chibebe, said the strike was partly a response to the disruption of a union council meeting Risky money by police last week. Union officials do not link the stayaway directly to the elections, since that would Oil majors see big opportunities in make it overtly political and contravene the new Public Order Act. The Assistant Commissioner of Africa but also new political and Police, Wayne Bvudzijena, said the stayaways would be dealt with ‘in accordance with the law’. reputational risks. Companies face Government response to union actions varies: protests over mealie-meal prices or against economic increasingly tough challenges on reforms were tolerated in the late 1980s and policies were often changed to meet union demands. Now corruption and environmental the challenge is much sterner. The ZCTU, representing more than 300,000 members, is openly aligned issues from the many communities which have seen no benefit from with the opposition MDC, although some ZANU-PF supporters still hold senior posts. Regime stalwarts the black gold. see a ZCTU stayaway as tantamount to insurrection. The Mbeki-Obasanjo plan looks implausible but there are few alternatives. It is extremely unlikely that Mugabe will be forced out by external intervention. Mbeki will at last have to turn up the volume on his POINTERS 8 quiet diplomacy. If Zimbabwe were engulfed in conflict, it would set back the development hopes of Southern Africa by a generation, sorely damage Mbeki’s position as leader of Africa’s most powerful Zambia, Ethiopia/ economy and wreck his attempts to persuade foreign investors and traders that the ‘new Africa’ is Sudan, Congo- committed to economic and political reform. It might also end the Mbeki-Obasanjo diplomatic Brazzaville & West partnership which underlies many of Africa’s foreign policy initiatives. The deal would start with substantive talks between teams led by Tsvangirai and Mugabe. Nigeria has Africa appointed a facilitator, the businessman and former interim Head of State Ernest Shonekan, and South 22 March 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 6 The nomenklatura Zimbabwe’s nomenklatura and their business friends now face tightening Zvinavashe and Mnangagwa, Shiri forms the triumvirate that controls the economic ‘smart’ sanctions from the European Union and . military and security services and also has interests in the regional diamond Instead of widening the range of sanctions against Harare after the 10-12 trade; he set up a military aircraft charter company, Avient, with Mnangagwa March election, the EU and US strategy is to hit the regime’s tiny elite and and a British Army Major, Andrew Smith; Shiri seethes about British their financiers increasingly hard. sanctions on the Air Force and says Zimbabwe will never again buy from This hasn’t surprised the hierarchy in the Zimbabwe African National British Aerospace (which has been stopped by Whitehall from supplying Union-Patriotic Front, who we hear attended an anti-sanctions summit in a spares to the Hawk jets); Shiri’s main political problem is his role as well appointed villa near Lake Kariba late last year. Proffering advice to commander of the North Korean-trained Five Brigade which massacred ZANU-PF’s elite were some of the most experienced sanctions-busters in the thousands of Ndebele in the Gukurahundi campaign in the early 1980s; a region who had worked for Ian Smith’s rebel regime and the apartheid recent hard-hitting BBC documentary on the massacres suggests that regime in South Africa. Among the wealthy and well-connected individuals charges could be brought against Shiri. and companies under scrutiny by the EU and USA are: ● Sidney Sekeramayi: ZANU Secretary for Security; restructured the Central Intelligence Organisation; director, ZIDCO Holdings. ● President Robert Mugabe and Grace (née Marufu): Western investigators ● Jayant Chunilal Joshi: Managing Director, ZIDCO Holdings, and key have been tracking Mugabe’s funds without much success though some to management of ZANU finances since the 1970s; he also assists the claim they have linked accounts in Liechtenstein to the ruling family. Mugabe family’s financial management; J.C. and his brother, Manharlal Mugabe is far less interested in wealth than power although the banning of Chunilal Joshi, are directors of several ZANU-linked companies, such as Grace’s shopping trips to Europe has hit her fashion boutiques in Harare. ZIDCO’s parent company, M & S Syndicate, Catercraft, A.M. Treger ● Leo Mugabe: Nephew of the President and Chairman of Integrated Holdings, First Banking Corporation and Star Travel; J.C.’s daughter Engineering Group (IEG), which regularly wins major government contracts, Heena was M.D. of Hazy Investments (linked to Leo Mugabe) and is now and the Zimbabwe Football Association; Leo represents Air Harbour country manager for Al-Shanfari’s Oryx Natural Resources in Congo. Technology, which won a US$120 million contract for the new international ● Mutumwa Mawere: one of the country’s brightest and biggest young airport; he brokers supply contracts for Zimbabwe Defence Industries in entrepreneurs with strong links to Mnangagwa; Chief Executive of African Congo-Kinshasa in cooperation with President Joseph Kabila. Resources Limited (ARL), a mining and financial services company, which ● Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa: Speaker of parliament and former owns Shabanie and Mashaba Mines, African Associated Mines and Turnall Security Minister; ZANU-PF Secretary for Finance and Chairman of ZANU’s Fibre Cement; ARL has a stake in First Banking Corporation and after ZIDCO Holdings; Mnangagwa was Chairman of ZANU’s old financing restructuring, took a stake in Bindura Nickel Mine; works with Phillip vehicle, M & S Investments, and is Chairman of asbestos exporter Fibrolite Chiyangwa as a head of the Consultative Forum’s anti-corruption group, of (joint venture with Armando Godinko); he is also a director of Opporto which the first two targets were the opposition party-linked Econet (Strive Investments, Galant Distribution, Galhold Investments, Woolworth Trading, Masiywa) and Kingdom Holdings (Nigel Chanikira). and Treasure Holdings; most lucrative has been his management of ZANU’s ● John Arnold Bredenkamp: one of Zimbabwe’s wealthiest businessmen; and the military’s investments and trade deals in Congo-K, where he is a close to Mnangagwa; Managing Director, Kabankola Mining Company, kingpin of the regional diamond trade; Mnangagwa’s key business associates which has majority stake in Gécamines’ Groupe Central in Congo; majority are two , Billy Rautenbach (for whom Interpol has holdings in Breco group of companies, Scotlee Resorts, Midwest Aviation issued an international arrest warrant) and British-based John Bredenkamp; and Trading (agency for major Western defence suppliers); he is threatening and an Omani, Thamer al-Shanfari. Mnangagwa is politically and legally legal action against a South African newspaper which alleged he has vulnerable because of his links to the Five Brigade massacres in Matebeleland. financial links with Mugabe. ● Lieutenant General Vitalis Zvinavashe: Commander of the Zimbabwe ● Thamer al-Shanfari: Chairman, Oryx Natural Resources, registered in the Defence Force; commanded troops in Congo; a pioneer of Chinese-style Cayman Islands (UK), and son of former Omani Oil Minister, Saeed bin military entrepreneurship, Zvinavashe is a director of the majority state- Ahmed al-Shanfari; went into partnership with the Zimbabwe government owned Zimbabwe Defence Industries which often sub-contracts to companies to form Oryx-Zimcon in 2000, in turn technical partner to the Zimbabwean owned by the Zvinavashe family, such as Zvinavashe Transport, Zvinavashe military’s Cosleg, which provides soldiers to guard Oryx’s diamond Holdings and Swift Investments; owns a majority stake in Congo’s Mhangura concessions in Congo; his attempt to get listing for a joint venture with Petra Copper mines; the family companies are run by his brother Augustine, a Diamonds (exploiting Congo’s Sengamines concession) on the London business partner of South African sanctions-buster Marc Rich; his other Stock Exchange failed in June 2000 (AC Vol 41 No 11); Al-Shanfari is brother, Francis, was killed in a mysterious car crash in 2000. understood to be seeking a new partner for the venture, which has been ● Air Marshal Perence Shiri; Commander, Zimbabwe Air Force; with extensively restructured. Africa is shortly to appoint one. The broadest range of subjects would have not recognised Mugabe as the winner; backing talks and dealing be open for discussion and each side has been told not to set pre- with the resulting government would imply a qualified acceptance of conditions. The priority would be ending political violence and the election result. For Obasanjo and Mbeki, it would mean a heavy restoring the rule of law. The stick would be Zimbabwe’s growing diplomatic workload with the risk of ignominious failure. Yet inaction isolation and marginalisation, the carrot would be an economic rescue risks the crisis spinning out of control, in a region already blighted by package and gradual restoration of relations with the international wars in Angola and Congo-Kinshasa. financial institutions. Last year, Pretoria’s Trade Minister Alec Erwin Both sides began by rejecting the power-sharing deal. The strongest worked on a recovery programme with Zimbabwe’s Finance Minister argument for it is that nothing else is remotely likely to staunch the and Agriculture Minister Joseph Made. If political crisis. Information Minister dismissed the idea of a progress is made in Harare, South Africa will contribute funds and national unity government as ‘insulting’ to ZANU-PF. Tsvangirai lobby Western states to weigh in, too. said the MDC could negotiate with ZANU-PF only after the ruling Substantive talks would entail compromise all round. For Tsvangirai, party’s cadres ended political violence. If that happened, Tsvangirai sitting down with Mugabe and his ministers would concede their saw a power-sharing government as a transition to fresh elections legitimacy. For Mugabe, talks would imply that the elections were not supervised by the Commonwealth or another international organisation. legitimate and warranted an emergency initiative. British Prime , Speaker of parliament and Mugabe’s Minister Tony Blair and United States President George W. Bush putative successor as ZANU-PF leader, dismissed Tsvangirai’s 2 22 March 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 6 demands for a re-run as a ‘pipedream’. agreed to apply them if Abubakar’s election observers submitted a Opposition to South Africa’s unity government formula could negative report. Senior Western officials, including Blair and the US dissipate under pressure. Many Zimbabweans favour some form of Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Walter Kansteiner III, coalition, at least as an interim measure. A poll by University of personally warned Mbeki and Obasanjo that failure to rein in Mugabe Zimbabwe researchers last month found more voters favouring the would scuttle Western backing for their New Partnership for Africa’s MDC than ZANU-PF but 60 per cent would back a coalition if it ended Development (NePAD). Blair and Canadian Premier Jean Chrétien violence and reversed the economic free-fall. Dialogue should further (whose diplomats had been highly critical of recent developments in be encouraged by promises of emergency aid and maybe some Zimbabwe) promoted diplomatic and financial support for NePAD at development aid, riding on agreement between Zimbabwe’s leaders. the G8 summit in Kananskis, Canada (AC Vol 43 No 4). The pressure for compromise by Mugabe was stiffened on 19 March, when the Commonwealth Troika (Mbeki, Obasanjo and Aid leverage Australian Premier John Howard) decided to suspend Zimbabwe Western states, particularly Britain and Canada, hoped to persuade the from the organisation. The Troika will review the suspension in a Bush government to double development aid to poor countries, from year’s time, in the light of political reforms and fairer electoral laws some US$50 billion a year to $100 bn. According to Kansteiner, if and procedures. Some senior Commonwealth officials quietly hope Mbeki and Obasanjo had ducked the Zimbabwe issue, US aid to Africa that within the year Mugabe will have announced his retirement. would have shrunk. Mbeki and Obasanjo will win kudos for trying but The report by three heads of government, including the leaders of they may not be rewarded for it. two of the most important countries in Africa, is one of the most robust Substantive talks between MDC and ZANU-PF could perhaps be ever made by Commonwealth observers. It detailed several incidents kick-started if the government agreed to drop all charges against MDC of political violence (overwhelmingly by ZANU-PF supporters); the activists and promised concessions on constitutional and electoral pro-ZANU-PF stance of the police and civil service; the barring of reform. Just now, that sounds ludicrous – but less than three years ago, most independent poll monitors and observers; legal restrictions on Zimbabwean opposition and civil society activists tried to shape a new freedom of speech and assembly; the disenfranchising of thousands of constitution across the table from ZANU stalwarts. In South Africa’s citizens by an arbitrary and sometimes secretive elector registration negotiation culture, a government of national unity and power-sharing system; and the use of state money and vehicles to boost the ZANU- sounds quite reasonable, particularly as it has half-worked there. PF campaign. It concluded that ‘conditions in Zimbabwe did not Given the personal bitterness between Tsvangirai and Mugabe, it adequately allow for a free expression of will by the electors.’ seems almost impossible they would serve together. Mugabe (with five degrees) and his student wife Grace publicly refer to the secondary- A Commonwealth revolution school educated Tsvangirai as ‘tea boy’. Tsvangirai asks audiences: The choice of Nigeria’s General Abdulsalami Abubakar as Chair of ‘What’s the only number bigger than Mugabe’s age? Why, the inflation the Commonwealth Observer Group struck some as odd. Abubakar rate of course!’ Some senior MDC officials might agree to an interim presided over a transition to civil rule in Nigeria after 17 years of government if it does not split their party. Zimbabwean politics is military regimes but the elections which brought his successor, littered with politicians and parties coopted into the ZANU fold. Obasanjo, to power in 1999 were far from free or fair. European Union It has been suggested that one of the MDC’s legal brains (such as observers added to the lexicon of observerspeak by arguing the Ncube or ) would become Justice Minister in charge of election was not free or fair but ‘generally reflected the will of the reviewing oppressive legislation. Another condition for power-sharing people’. This time, Abubakar was commended for refusing to take would be Mugabe’s retirement. That would encourage Tsvangirai’s that route. Zimbabwe’s state media blamed ‘rogue’ elements in the 42 involvement at a senior level in a strictly interim arrangement. Commonwealth observers and made much of the refusal of Namibian The likely short term prospect is of drawn-out negotiations between member of parliament Margaret Mensah to sign the report. MDC and ZANU, with tempers shortening as the facilitators look on. Until the Commonwealth Troika met in London on 19 March, Zimbabwe’s appalling economic predicament will enable outsiders to Nigeria and South Africa were ambivalent about the election. Nigerian pressure ZANU for concessions in exchange for assistance. Several EU observers (led by Shonekan, now facilitator), claimed to have seen countries are prepared to send emergency food aid, provided it is nothing to undermine the credibility of the poll; a South African team distributed by independent charities, not party organisations. Even if headed by Sam Motsuenyane announced the elections were the MDC remains adamantly opposed to power-sharing, there could be ‘legitimate’, to mocking laughter from South African journalists. negotiations over constitutional and electoral reform. And Mugabe, Hours before the London meeting, South African MPs had judged the with his reforming Finance Minister, Makoni, could change some election acceptable, while Obasanjo and Mbeki held their counsel. policies to win back credits from the and International As soon as the result was announced, the two leaders began pushing Monetary Fund. By crafty concessions to ward off outside censure, Tsvangirai and Mugabe towards dialogue. Obasanjo established a Mugabe could achieve a lengthy, and muddy, political compromise. rapport with Tsvangirai after a meeting in February and several phone The nightmare outcome would be the breakdown of negotiations and calls during and after the election campaign. Contact between prolonged bloody confrontation which could turn Zimbabwe into Tsvangirai and Mbeki was minimal; Tsvangirai first heard on state Southern Africa’s North Korea. If the government keeps up the radio about South African Deputy President Jacob Zuma’s peace pressure on the MDC and on the farmers, international isolation will mission to Zimbabwe on 15 March. Obasanjo and Mbeki had wanted grow as the economy plummets further and unemployment grows. The to win agreement in Harare on reconciliation and power-sharing talks Mugabe government will increasingly rely on friends such as Libya’s before their London meeting with Australia’s Howard on 19 March; Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi for economic and political survival. The that might have saved Zimbabwe from suspension. Without such an best insurance against that is, paradoxically, that in the 1980s, Mugabe’s agreement there was little Obasanjo or Mbeki could do to aid Mugabe. government created the well educated, formerly prosperous, black Sanctions became almost inevitable before the polls when the middle class, which will at some point mount real pressure on ZANU’s Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Coolum, Australia, nomenklatura to drop their pilot. 3 22 March 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 6

attempting to work together better in Burundi than in Rwanda, jointly BURUNDI advocate a permanent team and venue for talks, instead of ad hoc meetings in different places (AC Vol 42 No 19). However, the Anglo- French partners have fallen out about who should be in the team; Zuma is losing interest and still has problems with Bongo, who got involved Alternating currents in the process at the insistence of Ndayikengurukiye and dislikes The government is transitional but the cooperating with Pretoria. opposition fears its power is permanent Mandela, the UN Security Council and others often lecture the FDD and FNL that, even if they stay out of the Arusha talks, the agreement The four-month-old transitional government is, in some ways, the one and the installation of the interim government has left them with intended by the agreement signed in Arusha, Tanzania, in August nothing to fight about. The militias say that nothing has really 2000. President Pierre Buyoya is as firmly in charge as ever and there changed, since the state’s security forces remain solidly Tutsi. In have been no recent coup attempts. Cabinet ministers from ten parties, Arusha, Mandela tried to address this concern and got all parties to ranging from militant Tutsi to militant Hutu, work in their Bujumbura agree on a future national defence force with equal numbers from the offices. The Minister for Peace and National Reconciliation, Luc current army and the militias. Rukingama – head of the mainly Tutsi Union pour le Progrès What the militia leaders really mind is that Buyoya, who for them National (Uprona) and a trusted supporter of Buyoya – tries to explain incarnates the interests of the Tutsi army elite, is still President. The the Arusha agreement to the public. Arusha agreement gives him another 14 months in office. He has Political power is being shared. Without walkouts or boycotts, the solemnly promised Mandela and regional heads of state that he will Transitional National Assembly and the Senate have begun step down in May 2003. The rebels play for time: they would rather deliberations and passed a budget for 2002. Both bodies are recruited negotiate with his successor, who will come from Frodebu. from the country’s several ethnic and political factions: the Assembly Asked if he would indeed step down when his time was over, is headed by Jean Minani of the mainly Hutu Front pour la Démocratie Buyoya replies smoothly that he would if Burundians wanted him to. au Burundi (Frodebu); the Senate President is Libéré Bararunyeretse Senior Uprona members insist that there will be no Frodebu president of Uprona. South Africa’s 700-strong Protection Support Detachment without a ceasefire first. In 1996, they toppled Buyoya’s Frodebu (SAPSD) helps to guard 26 Hutu politicians who have returned from predecessor, Sylvestre Ntibantunganya, to prevent him from exile to join the transitional institutions and some of whom, including negotiating with Hutu rebels; they say nobody would then have Minani, have taken weekend trips into the interior, to show their spoken for the Tutsi and they would ‘be negotiating over our hides’. supporters that they are alive, home and active. They cannot now be expected to allow Minani or any other Frodebuiste Yet there is no ceasefire and no peace. Along Lake Tanganyika and to negotiate a ceasefire with the FDD and FNL. the Tanzanian border, around the Kibira Forest and along the main Several new Hutu members of the government concede that Uprona’s roads into the capital, ambushes, massacres and atrocities remain position is inevitable. Casimir Ngendanganya, a member of the common. It is still unsafe for refugees to come home. The Arusha Conseil National pour la Défense de la Démocratie (CNDD), of which agreement, brokered first by the late Tanzanian former President, the FDD is an offshoot, was formerly Ambassador to Germany and Julius Nyerere, then by South African former President Nelson is now Minister of Communal Development; he says that ‘as a realist’, Mandela, was signed without a ceasefire and needs one if it is to last. he knows that Buyoya will not step down without a ceasefire. The National Assembly’s Uproniste Vice-President, Pierre Barusasiyeko, recently said the agreement was at risk because the Dividing interests party leaders who had signed it were wavering, not trying hard enough The Frodebu leadership refuses to speculate on what might happen if to promote it to their rank and file. there was no ceasefire by May 2003, preferring to talk up the chance South African Deputy President Jacob Zuma is working for a that it will have taken place. Most other politicians do likewise and in ceasefire. He made little progress at talks between the Bujumbura one respect at least, there are grounds for such optimism. Since government and rebels in Pretoria late last month. The leaders of the Burundi’s new government took office in November 2001, Dar-es- two wings of the split Forces pour la Défense de la Démocratie Salaam has been less keen on allowing Hutu rebels to make raids from (FDD), Jean-Bosco Ndayikengurukiye and Pierre Nkurunziza, its territory and may even be restraining the militias. both restated their commitment to the ceasefire process, made earlier Tanzania sheltered Minani during his exile and has always openly in Libreville at meetings hosted by Gabonese President Omar Bongo. wanted to see Frodebu back in power. Now Frodebu, and probably Yet the other main anti-government Hutu militia, the Force Nationale Minani, seem to be on the way to the presidency and continued de Libération (FNL), again failed to turn up, complaining it had not fighting could slow the process down. Early this year, after President been given sufficient notice. Benjamin Mkapa met Buyoya and Minani, he said that his patience Buyoya says this shows the FNL is not serious about talks. Its Vice- with the rebels was ‘stretched to the limit’. Nevertheless, it is widely President, Jean-Bosco Sindayigaya, travelled to Addis Ababa, suspected in Burundi that some of Mkapa’s ministers want the Hutu Ethiopia, on 13 March to meet the Organisation of African Unity/ militias to keep fighting. African Union Secretary General, Amara Essy, with South African The FDD is strong in Congo-Kinshasa and the attitude of President and Gabonese officials also present. The OAU/AU has already failed Joseph Kabila’s government is crucial to the Burundi ceasefire (AC to persuade the militia to start ceasefire talks and does not look like Vol 42 No 21). Kabila has lately become cooler towards the FDD, succeeding this time. largely because he needs to be seen by the West as opposing groups International observers see genuine problems with the structuring identified in Congo’s own Lusaka peace accords as ‘negative forces’. of South Africa’s ceasefire initiative. The European Union provided Kabila has almost no effective soldiers of his own, though, and the technical back-up for Nyerere’s mediation in Burundi and has again FDD works alongside Rwandan Hutu to guard his flanks, particularly offered funds this time round. The British and French governments, in Katanga and Kasaï provinces. 4 22 March 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 6

Senior South African officers in Burundi know things could turn Even without the UN, few expect an immediate replay of the 1963 nasty at any moment but are pleased that their troops have shown ‘war of the sands’. Maghreb leaders have other things to worry about. professionalism and stuck closely to their mandate to protect returning Bouteflika has to pacify the rebellious Kabyle population and eradicate politicians. The other part of their mandate – to train a multi-ethnic Islamist groups, in the lead up to the legislative elections on 30 May. Burundian VIP-protection force – is on hold until that force’s Mohammed has been getting ready for his wedding at a private composition can be agreed, which depends on the rebel militias, so ceremony in Rabat on 21 March to Salma Bennani, a commoner, requires a ceasefire. followed by El Arsse, the traditional celebration in Marrakesh on 12 In late February, a black South African soldier shot and wounded his April, and general elections in September. white officer in the battalion’s Bujumbura base and was then killed by The regional cold war keeps its leaders busy. In early March, a sergeant; late last year, a South African soldier was found mysteriously Libya’s Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi separately hosted the Moroccan strangled in a Bujumbura suburb. That aside, there has been no Prime Minister, Abderrahmane el Youssoufi, and the head of King Burundian attempt on the lives of the South African protectors nor of Mohammed’s office, Mohamed Rachdi Chraibi, who also met those politicians they protect. Few expect this to last unless there is a Tunisia’s President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali on 11 March. Key ceasefire. There is much support in Pretoria for the army’s presence officials, including Morocco’s Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, in Burundi, despite a hefty price tag of US$400,000 per month, with Tayeb Fassi-Fihri (who handles the Sahara, regional relations and which Belgium alone has offered help. This could change if SA Rabat’s Mano River initiative) are rushed off their feet. As Mohammed soldiers start returning home in body bags – and the protection force VI visited Laayoune and Dakhla, Morocco, further north, was alive says that, if there is a collapse in Burundian public support for their with rumours of troop movements on the Algerian side of the presence or if the situation deteriorates, it will withdraw. mountainous border. However, official sources on both sides, and the Mandela wanted and pushed for the troop deployment and withdrawal trabendistes (smugglers) who ply their trade across the Atlas, say the would mean that his peace accord had failed. The South African Algerian army was busy with the Islamist underground: an arm of Al troops will probably be in Burundi when Buyoya’s time expires. Takfir wal Hijra (Excommunication and Flight) has been active near the border and we understand that the Wali (governor) of Oujda was in touch with his Algerian counterparts on this subject. NORTH AFRICA Upping the defence budgets Regional rearmament raises the tension (see Box). Algeria and Cross-border pressures Morocco are still raising their defence spending; Morocco’s military machine is increasingly favoured under Mohammed and Algeria’s Regional quarrels are rumbling across the Maghreb military spending (helped by small US arms export subsidies) is greater than that of Egypt, which gets $1.3 billion in foreign military A ten-year ceasefire between Morocco and the Polisario Front liberation sales credits. Algeria has 467 modern T-72 tanks but Morocco’s movement is in danger of being broken, now that the United Nations modernised and mobile artillery looks more effective. There was a is threatening to pull out of Western Sahara. The Sahara question still political row in Britain when the privatised Royal Ordnance got a pits Morocco against Polisario’s mentor, Algeria, in a cold war that supply order (AC Vol 42 No 10). has frustrated hopes of regional integration, rendered the five-country Algerian defence spending, officially stated as 6.8 per cent of gross Union du Maghreb Arabe (UMA) moribund (AC Vol 43 Nos 1 & 5) domestic product, is a growing strain on the economy. Russia and and stimulated a regional arms race. UN Secretary General Kofi other former Soviet states are the biggest suppliers. Most heat was Annan and his personal envoy for Western Sahara, the United States’ generated by news reports, which Rabat claimed came from Algerian former Secretary of State James Baker III, worry about the cost of a and Spanish intelligence – that the powerful Saudi Arabian UN mission without end, the Mission des Nations Unies pour le Ambassador to Washington, Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdelaziz, Référendum dans le Sahara Occidental (Minurso), which has cost had fixed a deal for transferring advanced F-16 combat aircraft to US$500 million since it started operations in 1991 – and has produced Morocco. In fact, the Royal Saudi Air Force has no F-16s yet but no referendum. might sell some of the ageing Northrop Grumman F-5s that it has On 19 February, Annan put four options to the UN Security already tried to offload on . It sees Morocco and Tunisia as Council: the UN could impose a referendum; impose a plan to make prospective markets. the territory a semi-autonomous part of Morocco; partition the territory Aware that the stakes are high, Algiers and Rabat have tried to (Morocco calls that an ‘Algerian idea’); or close down Minurso smooth things over. Algerian officials were angry when an independent without a new initiative. All sides have since been jockeying for Moroccan Arabic-language newspaper, Assabah, started to publish position. In a telephone call to US President George W. Bush on 28 La sale guerre (The dirty war), a book by Algerian former security February, King Mohammed VI said Rabat backed local autonomy for officer Habib Souaïdia; the paper stopped the serialisation. the Western Sahara – the ‘third way’, proposed by Baker but resolutely Commercial links, notably between the two countries’ electricity opposed by Polisario. Algeria’s President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, companies, Sonelgaz and Office National de l’Electricité, have been encouraged by Chief of Staff Mohamed Lamari, paid an unexpected maintained. Yet an Algerian business mission, led by Commerce visit in late February to Polisario camps near Tindouf – the first such Minister Mourad Medelci, was cancelled in mid-March after the visit by an Algerian president since the mid-1970s. In the Saharan King’s Saharan trip. capital Laayoune on 6 March, Mohammed VI said Morocco would not Moroccan-Spanish relations are also deteriorating, with clashes relinquish a ‘single inch’ of the territory. Polisario and Algerian over immigration, fishing and oil exploration. Morocco made a commentators promptly condemned his speech but it went down very political issue of Spain’s decision to award nine oil exploration blocks well in Morocco, where the 38-year-old king has been criticised for to Repsol-YPF (a Spanish company formed when Repsol absorbed allowing policy to drift. Argentina’s YPF) in offshore waters lying between Spain’s Canary 5 22 March 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 6 Algeria’s growing military machine Algeria’s progress against the Islamist underground was confirmed by the New deals are reducing Algeria’s estimated $4 bn. debt to Moscow. killing last month of Antar Zouabri, the leader of the Groupe Islamique Many of the Soviet Union’s arms factories were located in Belarus, Armé. This was a coup for the ambitious commander of the First Military which remains the junior partner in a close alliance with Russia. The first Region, General Fodil Cherif, and for the army’s new equipment. deputy head of the Belarus KGB, Stepan Sukhorenko, claims that his Nevertheless, some recent arms purchases suggest that the military clique country’s main arms customers are Sudan, Algeria and Angola. On 13 behind President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has wider aims than defeating the March, he told journalists that international agreements permitted those GIA and Hassan Hattab’s Salafist Group for Call and Combat (GSPC). countries to import military equipment – provided that they did not re- New weapons give dual capabilities, in high- and low-intensity warfare; export it. some are clearly intended to affect the regional military balance, providing Sudan’s National Islamic Front government buys weapons to use a counterweight to traditional rivals Libya, Morocco and Spain. Algeria against the anti-Islamist opposition (and civilians) while Algeria’s recent bucked the world trend by increasing defence spending from around purchases are often intended against Islamist groups; these include, from US$1.4 billion in 1985 to some $2.9 bn. in 2001. the USA, six Beech 1900D multi-mission surveillance aircraft, equipped The main items supplied by the United States, worried about human with Raytheon synthetic aperture radar, Westcam forward-looking infra- rights abuses, have been ‘excess defence articles’ (second-hand surplus). red and other high technology systems. Russian equipment includes 34 Bouteflika’s cultivation of President George ‘Dubya’ Bush as an ally in Mi-24 Hind attack helicopters (28 of them delivered by Ukraine in 1998- the ‘war against terrorism’ could change this but the State Department’s 99); they have been upgraded by South Africa’s Advanced Technical & human-rights sensitivities led Justice Minister Ahmed Ouyahia, who is Engineering Company, which also installed new gun systems and bomb also leader of the Rassemblement National Démocratique, to attack US hardpoints, and provided 700 Kentron Ingwe missiles. Helicopter gunships ‘double standards’ on 10 March. are equipped with laser-guided missiles to destroy armoured vehicles, Former Eastern Bloc states have cornered the market. In 1995-97, which the Islamists have not got. With an even greater emphasis on Algeria spent $1 bn. on arms: 38 per cent from the Czech Republic and external defence are Algeria’s six Russian IL-78 tanker aircraft, which Slovakia, followed by Belarus and Ukraine, and 36.5 per cent from could facilitate long-range operations by its Sukhoi-24 strike aircraft and Russia. Only 9.4 per cent came from the USA. The remaining 10.5 per newly acquired MiG-29 fighters. The Su-24s are being upgraded by their cent came from South Africa, Egypt, France and even Israel (security- supplier, Novasibirsk Chkalov Aviation Production Association, in a deal related equipment). Russia will probably continue to dominate the worth $120 million. market, even if it stops offering the usual low-interest, long-term Analysts say Algeria needs new air-to-air missiles to compete on even repayments. A key role has been played by Ilya Klebanov, Moscow’s terms with Libya and Morocco: the 34 refurbished MiG-29 interceptors Deputy Prime Minister and cheer-leader for Rosboronexport, now the purchased from Belarus carry only Russian missiles of 1960s-70s’ vintage. ‘one-stop shop’ for the Russian arms trade. Russian oil company LUKoil Algerian pilots also fly old MiG-25s, said to have been upgraded by has become a strategic ally of both Rosboronexport and Algeria’s Sonatrach. Ukraine’s Zaporozhe plant. Islands and the Tarfaya coast, adjoining Western Sahara, where the fields off West Africa. Swift expansion followed, as countries called maritime boundary has not been formally agreed (AC Vol 43 No 4). in the oil majors and hoped for a big find. The result was years of fast Algeria and Polisario have criticised Morocco’s grant of Saharan growth, big signature bonuses and blurred borders between politics acreage to Franco-Belgian major TotalFinaElf and a US independent, and business. Kerr McGee (AC Vol 42 No 21). TotalFina is now seeking marine Areas such as TotalFinaElf’s Block 17 in Angola have produced survey companies to carry out two-dimensional seismic surveys on up find after find, and US companies have enjoyed their first-mover to 8,000 kilometres off the shores of Western Sahara. advantage in Equatorial Guinea. Elsewhere, there have been Spanish Labour Minister Juan Carlos Aparicio has given warning disappointments. Recently licensed deep-water acreage in Angola’s that Morocco could lose its priority status in exporting labour to Spain Kwanza Basin has yet to yield much oil. Supermajors such as if it does not complete some political and administrative agreements. ExxonMobil are restructuring their portfolios as prices fall and offering This would hurt the Moroccan economy and add to social pressures. stakes for sale. Meanwhile, in shanty-towns across the kingdom, young Moroccans This creates opportunities for medium-sized firms such as Malaysia’s and other Africans wait in their thousands to cross the narrow but Petronas Karigali and South Africa’s Energy Africa, in which Petronas dangerous Strait of Gibraltar, to seek work in Europe. has a significant stake. Energy Africa is in partnership with Australia’s Hardman Resources in Mauritania and Uganda, and Petronas has a 60 per cent operating stake in Equatorial Guinea’s Corisco Bay block, OIL immediately south of Amerada Hess’s prolific Ceiba field. Petronas owns a stake in South Africa’s downstream oil company Engen and makes controversial money in Sudan. It is involved in both Risky money upstream (production) and downstream (refining and marketing) activities, and is developing petrochemical industries, like much Oil companies meet human rights and larger companies, including Royal Dutch Shell and British Petroleum. political challenges in Africa’s new fields It uses Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s Third-World credentials The oil majors, nervous about the Arabian Gulf, see big opportunities across the continent and plays the Islamic card in Sudan. in Africa (AC Vol 43 No 5). Yet global recession and new political Smaller firms are growing. Vanco Energy Company of the USA, pressures present them with huge difficulties, and bitter criticism, as owned by the wealthy Gene van Dyke, seeks out deep-water acreage corrupt regimes hijack oil earnings or use them to finance wars. On in unglamorous locations and builds political relations with 5 March, a United States’ federal court ruled that a civil lawsuit governments. Vanco has recruited Mohammed Douieb, former head charging Shell with human rights violations in Nigeria could proceed. of Morocco’s Office National de Recherches et d’Exploitations The last decade’s scramble for Africa saw growing rivalries between Pétrolières, and Gilbert Yougoubari, former Director General of US and French oil companies, as deep-water technology opened new Côte d’Ivoire’s state company, Petroci. Vanco has 27.4 million gross 6 22 March 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 6 acres of deep water between Morocco and Madagascar, putting it São Tomé e Princípe, where previous attempts have failed, could ahead of leaders such as Shell and Italy’s Agip, and plans to sink six be the next new oil province, now that agreement has been reached wells in late 2002 and early 2003 in Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, with Nigeria on exploitation of the waters between the two countries. Morocco and Namibia. Together they administer a Joint Development Zone (JDZ) and plan to offer acreage for licensing next year. Environmental Remediation Business not politics Holding Corporation (ERHC), a US-registered company now controlled US companies complain when politics get in the way of business. The by Nigerian businessman Emeka Offor’s Chrome Energy, has a ‘Oasis Group’ of Marathon Oil, Amerada Hess and Conoco, formerly significant stake in the acreage and any future development. partners in Libya’s Wafa concession, saw their operations frozen in ERHC first went into São Tomé in 1997 to help promote oil 1986 and are lobbying to get back. Washington has allowed executives prospects but its former US owners fell foul of the government and the to visit Tripoli and renegotiate production contracts. Nevertheless, dispute eventually went to arbitration at the International Chamber of despite its Big Oil credentials, the US government is unlikely to get the Commerce in Paris. Chrome Energy bought ERHC in February last Iran-Libya Sanctions Act repealed soon. year and the company now has rights and the prospect of revenues both Despite its civil war, Angola has become the exploration target of within the JDZ and in São Tomé’s own waters, giving Nigerian choice for industry giants. Now that Jonas Savimbi of the União interests a key role in its small neighbour’s future. Nacional Total para a Independência de Angola is dead, though, Another Nigerian company, Atlas Petroleum, owned by Ibo President José Eduardo dos Santos can no longer blame him for the businessman Prince Arthur Eze, has a stake in Equatorial Guinea’s war continuing or resist pressure from the International Monetary offshore waters and its sister company, Oranto Petroleum, has two Fund for transparency and the use of oil revenues for sustainable blocks offshore of Côte d’Ivoire, for which the government of President development. If UNITA can unite and make peace, Dos Santos will Laurent Gbagbo received a welcome $1 mn. signature bonus last run out of excuses. year. There is less pressure to reform the oil business in Nigeria, especially since President Olusegun Obasanjo’s government suspended Can leopards change their spots? cooperation with the IMF (AC Vol 43 No 5). The threat of the USA The pressure for corporate social responsibility is steadily mounting, attacking Iraq has boosted the oil price, giving politicians more room as activists try to undermine oil companies’ share prices – and have to manoeuvre in the run-up to elections due next March. Gas and done so with Canada’s Talisman Energy, which is now trying to sell power projects are expanding fast and there have been fewer attacks off its profitable assets in Sudan. on oil installations in the Niger Delta, although the elections could Since its takeover by TotalFina in 2000, Elf-Aquitaine is no longer bring new violence there. the business arm of French Realpolitik. The merger gave Paris a Nigeria remains the preserve of the oil majors and local companies. world-scale oil company and dropped a lot of past political activity as The only South African firm there is power company Eskom. The Prime Minister Lionel Jospin modernised France’s Africa policy. In state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation is a vital source Angola, pressure for transparency has created problems for BP Amoco, of government cash and proposals for restructuring are unlikely to which last year told US regulators that it had paid the Luanda make much headway. government $111 mn. as a signature bonus for a 26.7 per cent operating share in deep-water Block 31. The revelation angered the Small but booming government, which was resisting pressure from the IMF and from The discovery of oil and gas has transformed several small countries. NGOs such as Global Witness, for full disclosure of oil finances. Equatorial Guinea’s deep waters, particularly the blocks operated by With much of the Gulf of Guinea now licensed, some companies are Amerada Hess, remind observers of Block 17 in Angola, where searching for oil off East Africa. Most of the activity takes place safely TotalFinaElf’s giant Girassol field began production last year and offshore and there are limits to exploration even for the boldest of risk more will follow. Amerada will bring in a third drilling rig to speed seekers: acreage off Somalia granted to Sweden’s Lundin Petroleum up development of the Ceiba field and subsequent discoveries. and to TotalFinaElf is under force majeure, because of security Mauritania’s exploration is dominated by Australian companies, concerns following the 11 September attacks in the US. Meanwhile, pleased with the operating environment offered by President Ould Sid Lundin says its suspension of activities following opposition attacks Ahmed Taya. More drilling is planned this year to assess the in Sudan may last all year. promising Chinguetti find, estimated last year at 180 mn. barrels by Hardman Resources; the operator, Hardman’s partner Woodside Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com Energy, now puts the figure at 65 mn. barrels. In mid-March, Hardman Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at listed on the London Alternative Investment Market (AIM) to raise 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. funds and is awaiting a response. Australia and Mauritania have Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. agreed to exchange ambassadors – but others are coming into the Administration: Clare Tauben. reckoning. In the first deal of its kind, a powerful local entrepreneur, Mohamed Abdallahi Ould Abdallahi, has teamed up with the Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: Russian-owned, London-based Technology Investment and Institutions: Africa £312 – UK/Europe £347 – USA $874 – ROW £452 Exploration to take big blocks of onshore acreage. Corporates: Africa 404 – UK/Europe £425 – USA $985 – ROW £531 Mauritania’s Chinguetti find sparked interest in the neighbouring Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £87 or USA $125 Western Sahara, where Franco-Belgian TotalFinaElf and Kerr-McGee All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. caused a storm last October by signing 12-month reconnaissance Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 permits (AC Vol 43 No 4). The United Nations Department of Legal 1FH England. Tel: 44 (0)1865 244083 and Fax: 44 (0)1865 381381 Affairs has ruled that the agreements are not in themselves illegal but Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. further exploration and drilling would be. ISSN 0044-6483 7 22 March 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 6

parliamentary elections will be based on the same Pointers ETHIOPIA/SUDAN electoral roll that delivered both the presidential election victory and the ‘Yes’ vote at January’s constitutional referendum. The Fédération ZAMBIA Pals with Pal Internationale des Ligues des Droits de l’Homme Is southern Sudan, already burdened with enough (FIDH) and the local Observatoire Congolais des problems of its own, becoming enmeshed in Droits de l’Homme reported many pre-election Levy’s trials another proxy war on its border with Ethiopia? abuses. Many foreigners got the vote, many locals Such fears follow the arrival in eastern Sudan of in opposition-supporting areas didn’t. President Levy Mwanawasa is at war with his some 400 armed Ethiopian dissidents loyal to the Unlike President Robert Mugabe, Sassou has predecessor, Frederick Chiluba, who resents his ex-Governor of Gambela, Thokwath Pal Chai. not made the world’s TV screens. Joaquim independent spirit. Chiluba, who is still President Pal Chai moved to Akobo last year under an Miranda, head of the European Union’s observer of the governing Movement for Multi-party agreement with Michael Wal Duany, a southern team, calls for a new census but admits it cannot Democracy, is fomenting a party revolt against Sudanese academic formerly with the Workshop come in time for the impending parliamentary, Mwanawasa. In turn Mwanawasa did nothing to on Political Theory and Policy Analysis at Indiana local and senatorial polls. France, which harshly help Chiluba when opposition MPs took him to University, United States, and now leading the criticised Zimbabwe’s election, has aired mild court over his end of service benefits. The court South Sudan Liberation Movement (SSLM), a reservations: ‘Despite confirmed imperfections, ruled that Chiluba should surrender all government Nuer grouping formed in January 2000 which at least the election has allowed the Congolese vehicles and other benefits because he was still in aims to unite Sudan’s divided Nuer. (Lam Akol’s population to express its desire for peace and its active politics. militia is Shilluk and separate, AC Vol 43 No 5). rejection of violence,’ said Foreign Ministry As Mwanawasa was forming his government, Wal Duany’s hopes were dashed almost spokesperson François Rivasseau. ‘The process Chiluba persuaded his friend and MMD Chairman, immediately by the return to the south of Riek of democratisation in Congo will continue.’ Chitalu Sampa, to decline the offered post of Machar in February and his formation of the Even if opponents are conceded parliamentary Deputy Defence Minister. We hear Chiluba had South Sudan Democratic Front (SSDF). But the seats, they will have little influence. Sassou’s given a list of ministerial nominees to Mwanawasa, SSLM survived in Akobo and last year gave tailor-made constitution vests all executive power who rejected them all. Instead he appointed refuge to Pal Chai, a disaffected Gajak Nuer from in the president, who has a seven-year renewable several of Chiluba’s political foes such as Mundia Ethiopia. Pal Chai is reported to receive logistical term, controls the judiciary and cannot be Sikatana to Agriculture. Sikatana then alleged support from Oromo and Amhara dissidents and impeached by parliament. Chiluba’s government had improperly remitted also, say some sources, from Eritrea. US$90 million to the Bahamas. At the end of January, Nuer sources say, 400 WEST AFRICA A furious Chiluba drove to State House to supporters of Pal Chai flew to Akobo from complain to Mwanawasa. ‘Ministers should mind Somalia. This followed a visit to Somalia by their language. This is not a takeover. It is a SSLM Commander Timothy Taban Juc. He Tote that barge handover and they must know that there cannot be reportedly negotiated a deal where the Ethiopian Shipping containers around West and Central a government without a party’, Chiluba told dissidents would give the SSLM three AK-47s for Africa is twice as expensive as in other parts of the journalists. He started talking to opposition every ten they carried to Sudan for their own use. world. A private consortium now hopes to politicians who claimed Mwanawasa had won the The 400 Ethiopians were divided among three transform regional trade, with a service that would election by fraud. MMD National Secretary and towns: Akobo, Maiwut and Matar. In response, replace European shipping lines such as Information Minister Vernon Mwaanga held a Ethiopian forces deployed along the border from Denmark’s Maersk and Delmas of the French secret meeting between Chiluba and Anderson Pagak to Akobo. Bolloré Group. Ecomarine aims to halve shipping Mazoka, who narrowly lost against Mwanawasa It’s not just Ethiopia that is concerned by the costs, provided it can promote reforms in (AC Vol 42 No 25). And Mwanawasa immediately dissidents’ presence in Sudan. With SPLA, SPDF, inefficient, corrupt ports, such as Lagos, and reduce fired Mwaanga. SSLM and Sudan government forces all present tariffs across the zone. But Mwaanga is also MMD’s Chief Whip in around Akobo, many Nuer were extremely worried After June, the company plans to launch West parliament and retaliated by suspending by the arrival of a fifth armed faction. On 17 Africa’s first transshipment centre, fed by a Presidential Affairs Minister Mbita Chitala from February, Machar’s SSDF attacked and drove the dedicated service. In Lomé, Togo, the United parliament amid much protest. Mwanawasa is Ethiopian dissidents out of Maiwut. He said they States’ container company Seapoint may invest replacing Mwaanga with another of Chiluba’s were last seen fleeing towards the border. $94 million, possibly with support from the World allies, Newstead Zimba: his role is to reduce Bank, and the African and Islamic Development Chiluba’s influence in the MMD, we hear. Zimba CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE Banks. The project was conceived by Bamanga is organising party elections and could draw up Tukur, a former Nigerian minister, once a electoral rules favouring Mwanawasa’s supporters Director of the Nigerian Ports Authority, now but many believe that he remains politically close Back in Brazza president of the African Business Round Table, to Chiluba. Demoralised opposition leaders must now decide and developed by Cameroonian businessman Chiluba plans an extraordinary party congress. whether to bother contesting the forthcoming William Chindo. Investors include Baeoro He says he won’t leave until he reorganises the legislative elections. President Denis Sassou- Fahdil, a Cameroonian industrialist; Mike party. As MMD confusion mounts, the opposition Nguesso won a crushing, Cold War-like 89.41 per Akhigbe, said to have amassed a fortune as deputy has started backing Mwanawasa against Chiluba. cent in the 10 March presidential poll, on a dubious to Nigeria’s former military head of state, However, Chiluba may just win opposition electoral register. His real rivals are exiled ex- Abdulsalami Abubakar; and Babacar Ndiaye, backing by offering to testify in support of its President (elected) Pascal Lissouba and exiled Senegalese former President of the ADB. claims that the presidential election was rigged. ex-Premier Bernard Kolélas (AC Vol 42 No 21). Influential tycoons in 27 African countries have Mazoka, who is backing the petition in court, says Both were barred from standing on grounds of promised financial backing. Leaders in the that he has heard that Chiluba may be a key non-residence. Economic Community of West African States witness. The row with Chiluba is undermining Another ex-Premier, André Milongo, and ex- (Ecowas) are said to like the private-sector model, Levy Mwanawasa’s government. And he is being minister Martin Mbéri (who pulled out of the having had bad experiences with government- advised to consider derailing Chiluba’s strategy presidential race saying it was unfair) rely on owned regional projects. Historians will remember with yet another legal action over the mysterious Sassou to allow their parties a handful of the Black Star Line, promoted by the Jamaican $90 mn. remittance. parliamentary seats, for added credibility. But the visionary Marcus Garvey. It came to a bad end. 8