www.africa-confidential.com 22 March 2002 Vol 43 No 6 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL ZIMBABWE 2 ZIMBABWE The nomenklatura Harare’s magic circle and their On the knife-edge business friends now face Neither side wants a power-sharing government but at least it might tightening economic ‘smart’ stop the violence sanctions from the European Union and USA. But some of the Quietly, within days of the disputed 10-12 March presidential election, the outline of a deal between nomenklatura prepared for this by Zimbabwe’s warring political parties emerged. After two years of rising tension, with one of Africa’s attending an anti-sanctions most hopeful economies heading for the abyss, it looked like the last chance for political peace. Brokered seminar at a luxurious villa near by South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki and Nigeria’s President Olusegun Obasanjo, the deal Lake Kariba last year. proposes: a coalition government with ministers from all parties and some non-partisan figures; a review of recent oppressive laws on public assembly and the media; full implementation of the Abuja agreement BURUNDI 4stipulating orderly land redistribution, to be financed by Britain and international financial institutions. Also under discussion is the dropping of treason charges against Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Alternating currents opposition Movement for Democratic Change, and its Secretary General, Welshman Ncube. Tsvangirai In Bujumbura politicians are was formally charged on 20 March in a move that will make negotiations even more problematic cooperating and South African Time is pressing. The mood in the streets of Harare and Bulawayo is angry and mainly backs the MDC; peacekeepers are settling down almost everyone believes Tsvangirai was cheated of victory. The anger is not just political. The United well. But the question is: what Nations World Food Programme says over 500,000 people are malnourished and three times as many happens when President Buyoya prepares to hand power to his have registered for food aid. Usually cautious commentators forecast maize-meal riots within weeks, opponents if the warring factions unless the government organises emergency distribution – not just to the ruling party’s supporters. haven’t agreed a ceasefire? Ragged election posters hang from lamp-posts and there are few signs of political mobilisation. In most towns, the elections were followed by an eerie normality yet politics are polarising. The MDC are Western poodles, ZANU-PF are brutal thugs. Frustrated MDC youths want more than ever to test NORTH AFRICA 5 themselves against the government’s youth militias. In its rural heartland, faith in the Zimbabwe African Cross-border National Union-Patriotic Front, lauded as the party of liberation, is higher than ever: the election has been won, land and cheaper food are promised. Only a comfortable few find any middle ground. pressures A ten-year ceasefire between Targetting MDC supporters Morocco and Polisario is in peril The chances of talks succeeding are slim, so both sides are taking side bets. President Robert Mugabe’s now that the UN is threatening to pull out of Western Sahara. government has cut violence but selectively: some violence on farms has been halted but there have been Algeria’s growing military machine many retributive attacks on workers and farmers believed to have backed the opposition. At least two might tempt its government to people have been killed in post-election violence (but, unusually, within a day police arrested four challenge Rabat’s strategy in the suspects for the murder of a farmer, Terry Ford, on 18 March). Sahara. Several civil rights and student groups say they plan a mass disobedience campaign. On 18 March, the Zimbabwe Congress of Trades Unions called on all workers to stay away from their workplaces on 20- OIL 6 22 March, in protest against harassment of workers and unionists. ZCTU’s Secretary General, Wellington Chibebe, said the strike was partly a response to the disruption of a union council meeting Risky money by police last week. Union officials do not link the stayaway directly to the elections, since that would Oil majors see big opportunities in make it overtly political and contravene the new Public Order Act. The Assistant Commissioner of Africa but also new political and Police, Wayne Bvudzijena, said the stayaways would be dealt with ‘in accordance with the law’. reputational risks. Companies face Government response to union actions varies: protests over mealie-meal prices or against economic increasingly tough challenges on reforms were tolerated in the late 1980s and policies were often changed to meet union demands. Now corruption and environmental the challenge is much sterner. The ZCTU, representing more than 300,000 members, is openly aligned issues from the many communities which have seen no benefit from with the opposition MDC, although some ZANU-PF supporters still hold senior posts. Regime stalwarts the black gold. see a ZCTU stayaway as tantamount to insurrection. The Mbeki-Obasanjo plan looks implausible but there are few alternatives. It is extremely unlikely that Mugabe will be forced out by external intervention. Mbeki will at last have to turn up the volume on his POINTERS 8 quiet diplomacy. If Zimbabwe were engulfed in conflict, it would set back the development hopes of Southern Africa by a generation, sorely damage Mbeki’s position as leader of Africa’s most powerful Zambia, Ethiopia/ economy and wreck his attempts to persuade foreign investors and traders that the ‘new Africa’ is Sudan, Congo- committed to economic and political reform. It might also end the Mbeki-Obasanjo diplomatic Brazzaville & West partnership which underlies many of Africa’s foreign policy initiatives. The deal would start with substantive talks between teams led by Tsvangirai and Mugabe. Nigeria has Africa appointed a facilitator, the businessman and former interim Head of State Ernest Shonekan, and South 22 March 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 6 The nomenklatura Zimbabwe’s nomenklatura and their business friends now face tightening Zvinavashe and Mnangagwa, Shiri forms the triumvirate that controls the economic ‘smart’ sanctions from the European Union and United States. military and security services and also has interests in the regional diamond Instead of widening the range of sanctions against Harare after the 10-12 trade; he set up a military aircraft charter company, Avient, with Mnangagwa March election, the EU and US strategy is to hit the regime’s tiny elite and and a British Army Major, Andrew Smith; Shiri seethes about British their financiers increasingly hard. sanctions on the Air Force and says Zimbabwe will never again buy from This hasn’t surprised the hierarchy in the Zimbabwe African National British Aerospace (which has been stopped by Whitehall from supplying Union-Patriotic Front, who we hear attended an anti-sanctions summit in a spares to the Hawk jets); Shiri’s main political problem is his role as well appointed villa near Lake Kariba late last year. Proffering advice to commander of the North Korean-trained Five Brigade which massacred ZANU-PF’s elite were some of the most experienced sanctions-busters in the thousands of Ndebele in the Gukurahundi campaign in the early 1980s; a region who had worked for Ian Smith’s rebel regime and the apartheid recent hard-hitting BBC documentary on the massacres suggests that regime in South Africa. Among the wealthy and well-connected individuals charges could be brought against Shiri. and companies under scrutiny by the EU and USA are: ● Sidney Sekeramayi: ZANU Secretary for Security; restructured the Central Intelligence Organisation; director, ZIDCO Holdings. ● President Robert Mugabe and Grace (née Marufu): Western investigators ● Jayant Chunilal Joshi: Managing Director, ZIDCO Holdings, and key have been tracking Mugabe’s funds without much success though some to management of ZANU finances since the 1970s; he also assists the claim they have linked accounts in Liechtenstein to the ruling family. Mugabe family’s financial management; J.C. and his brother, Manharlal Mugabe is far less interested in wealth than power although the banning of Chunilal Joshi, are directors of several ZANU-linked companies, such as Grace’s shopping trips to Europe has hit her fashion boutiques in Harare. ZIDCO’s parent company, M & S Syndicate, Catercraft, A.M. Treger ● Leo Mugabe: Nephew of the President and Chairman of Integrated Holdings, First Banking Corporation and Star Travel; J.C.’s daughter Engineering Group (IEG), which regularly wins major government contracts, Heena was M.D. of Hazy Investments (linked to Leo Mugabe) and is now and the Zimbabwe Football Association; Leo represents Air Harbour country manager for Al-Shanfari’s Oryx Natural Resources in Congo. Technology, which won a US$120 million contract for the new international ● Mutumwa Mawere: one of the country’s brightest and biggest young airport; he brokers supply contracts for Zimbabwe Defence Industries in entrepreneurs with strong links to Mnangagwa; Chief Executive of African Congo-Kinshasa in cooperation with President Joseph Kabila. Resources Limited (ARL), a mining and financial services company, which ● Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa: Speaker of parliament and former owns Shabanie and Mashaba Mines, African Associated Mines and Turnall Security Minister; ZANU-PF Secretary for Finance and Chairman of ZANU’s Fibre Cement; ARL has a stake in First Banking Corporation and after ZIDCO Holdings; Mnangagwa was Chairman of ZANU’s old financing