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AC Vol 45 No 8) www.africa-confidential.com 16 April 2004 Vol 45 No 8 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL ZIMBABWE II 2 ZIMBABWE I Losing Zengeza The MDC has lost a by-election in Gunning for Mnangagwa Zengeza and risks losing the A corruption probe into ZANU-PF’s finances aims to block the opposition war unless it can sort Parliamentary Speaker’s bid to succeed President Mugabe out its finances and motivate its A high-level investigation initiated by former army commander General Solomon Mujuru into claims leaders to stand up to ZANU-PF. of massive corruption in the commercial operations of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Popular Front (ZANU-PF) is targeting Parliamentary Speaker Emmerson Mnangagwa. Although the allegations SOUTH AFRICA/AFRICA 3 to be investigated centre on graft, mismanagement and security breaches, the intent behind the probe is overtly political – to stop Mnangagwa positioning himself to succeed President Robert Mugabe. As the Rebirth pains party’s Secretary for Administration, Mnangagwa is held responsible for the disarray in ZANU-PF’s As grand plans for African finances and has been recently named in another investigation into illegal gold trading. development move from the Gen. Mujuru proposed the investigation at last month’s central committee meeting after a ZANU-PF enthusiasm of planning into the linked company, Treger Holdings, had been cited in cases of foreign exchange offences, and another tougher execution phase, a series ZANU-PF notable, the volatile Philip Chiyangwa had been charged with fraud in another case (AC Vol of summits will test whether progress is as slow as it appears. 45 No 6). Mujuru caught Mnangagwa’s clique off guard when he argued that the anti-graft campaign would lack credibility unless it looked at the ruling party’s own finances. Under scrutiny will be all ZANU-PF associated companies and investments including ZIDCO KENYA 4 Holdings, the M&S Syndicate, First Banking Corporation, Treger Holdings, Catercraft and Zidlee Enterprises. News that Police Chief Musarashana Mabunda was investigating these companies was Kibaki’s crowded followed by the departure of ZIDCO’s Chief Executive, Jayant Joshi, to Britain. Jayant Joshi, and his diary brother Manharlal, left Harare on 1 April. We hear that they were escorted to the airport by Mnangagwa, President Kibaki has six months of and that they have sold many of their assets in Zimbabwe. tough decisions ahead of him to The Joshis, who own supermarkets in Romford, Essex, hold British passports but have lived in Africa revive the momentum of reform and for decades, first in Mozambique where they met the leaders of the Zimbabwe Africa National Liberation win back popularity while keeping Army, and then in Zimbabwe after Independence. Still unclear is the position of Jayant’s daughter Heena, the ruling NARC coalition together. who has been working for Oryx Natural Resources, which has had a stake in Congo-Kinshasa’s Sengamines diamond mining operation since 2000 (AC Vol 41 No 11). GHANA 6 With friends like Mnangagwa’s . Registration rumpus The Joshis’ relationship with Mnangagwa, who was also formerly ZANU-PF’s Secretary for Finance, Lack of funds for the Electoral goes back more than 20 years. Together they took charge of ZANU-PF’s commercial operations, Commission and last-minute rule pioneering the party’s investments in Congo during the deployment of Zimbabwean troops in the civil changes by the government meant war. Their grip on party finance has been under fire from Mnangagwa’s political rivals. But Mnangagwa voter registration for December’s has retained some formidable business friends such as the former Finance Director of the Rhodesian elections was chaotic Politicians Defence Force and now BAE Systems (British Aerospace) agent for Southern Africa, John Bredenkamp, and bureaucrats blame each other. More controversy is assured. and Omani magnate Thamer al-Shanfari. Some ZANU-PF companies have lost millions of dollars; almost none of them have rendered audited accounts. The probe into the ruling party’s finances, chaired by ZANU-PF’s current Secretary for Finance, David Karimanzira, is to examine the party’s portfolio of companies and investments, their SAHEL/CHAD 7 directors and shareholding structures, and their business performance over the past five years. Rebels all round Also on the ZANU-PF probe panel are Mujuru, former Finance Minister Simba Makoni and Governor for Matebeleland North, Obert Mpofu. A kingmaker but never a king, Mujuru is not as eloquent as The conflict in Darfur, wandering Mugabe or the legally-trained Mnangagwa but has an unrivalled authority in the party with strong backing bands of Islamists in the Tibesti and from Mnangagwa’s opponents. divisions in his ruling party all threaten President Idriss Déby. ZANU-PF officials would not say how long the probe will take. Some say it will continue into the run- up to next year’s elections and keep Mnangagwa out of the succession race should Mugabe quit at the party congress this December. Makoni is seen as a contender for the presidency or the premiership (under POINTERS 8 a new constitution) despite his lack of a political base, which an alliance with Mujuru might provide. Last month, the government introduced its anti-corruption bill, which includes an anti-graft commission South Africa, Côte designed to start operating in the run-up to next year’s parliamentary elections. Many back the law d’Ivoire, Namibia & because it might help ZANU-PF’s reputation as well as purge the party hierarchy. Some senior ZANU- Cape Verde PF officials are appalled that British passport holders, such as the Joshis, should have knowledge, let alone managerial control, of ZANU-PF’s investments. 16 April 2004 Africa Confidential Vol 45 No 8 is Shona-Karanga from Masvingo (but most of his senior colleagues ZIMBABWE II are Ndebele). So far ZANU-PF has failed to provoke ethnic factionalism, but many opposition activists are sure that Central Intelligence Organisation agents are well placed in the MDC, relaying confidential details back to ZANU-PF. Losing Zengeza Tsvangirai’s High Court trial for treason is over, and he awaits the The ruling party has won another by-election verdict. Almost all his supporters regard the charges as a set-up, based – and the opposition is faltering on staged conversations with ZANU-PF agents – but many believe Tsvangirai naïve to have fallen into the trap, and the trial diverted party The economic meltdown continues, land resettlement is hobbled by resources away from political campaigning to a purely defensive role. corruption and mismanagement, and the ruling elite is quarrelling over Tsvangirai, who at first seemed equipped to hold the party’s factions the presidential succession. So the main opposition Movement for together, now seems a target for all their discontents. There is hot Democratic Change should be planning a big victory in next year’s debate about his talk of boycotting the coming elections. parliamentary elections? Not at all. The MDC has been trounced at a Two MDC members of parliament, Job Sikhala and Trudy key by-election in Zengeza, a township near Harare, and the type of Stevenson, argue that abstention would be self-defeating, and would urban constituency it must win for a majority in next year’s parliamentary further depress the party vote in by-elections. Ncube and others doubt elections. The MDC can no longer get support just because it is not the whether it is worth participating. ‘There is no sense in legitimising a ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Popular Front. process whose result is already predetermined’, Ncube told Africa Voters are angry about worsening economic privations (AC Vol 45 Confidential, adding that the MDC would go on exposing electoral No 7), but also question the MDC’s failure either to score points fraud and pursue court actions to correct it. It’s hard to see how the against ZANU-PF, or to improve their economic position. Amid MDC could survive as a serious force if it did boycott the elections, reports of infighting in the MDC leadership, morale is so low that many given its reluctance – or inability, outside its urban strongholds – to members say it would be pointless to fight the elections under the organise mass demonstrations or strikes, or to get the government to present rules. Violence, intimidation and perhaps outright vote- reform the electoral rules and appoint an independent electoral rigging may have cost the MDC crucial votes at Zengeza, but that is commission. Such issues were on the agenda in its talks with ZANU- normal in elections under President Robert Mugabe’s government. PF, which have now broken down, apparently irreparably. Fairer rules MDC loyalists point to poor organisation, a weak candidate and and more accountability would not reduce violence and intimidation, leadership infighting as the main reason why ZANU-PF’s Christopher especially in the countryside. Chigumba won 8,744 votes to 6,706 for the MDC’s James Makore on 27-28 March. Chigumba’s vote increased, but only about a third of Financial perils the registered electors voted. In 2000, Chigumba polled 5,330 votes, The MDC will find it hard to raise the money for a national campaign. against 14,814 for the MDC’s Tafadzwa Musekiwa, who after several Last month it failed to pay its employees on time (officials blamed the threats on his life fled to London, forcing the by-election and leaving cost of the Zengeza by-election). There is talk of mismanagement and local MDC supporters feeling first betrayed, then unhappy about the even of corruption; telephones have been frequently cut off for non- imposition of Makore as the party’s candidate this time. payment. The outlawing of foreign donations (while ZANU-PF keeps its own foreign contributions secret) has hit hard.
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