<<

DALLAS-FORT WORTH MULTIFAMILY REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2019

MARKET AT A GLANCE

OCCUPANCY RATE 94.3% Down 10 bps since 1Q18

EFFECTIVE $ RENT 1,119 Up 3.6% since 1Q18

TOTAL INVENTORY 796,536

OCCUPANCY AND RENT TRENDS

APARTMENT RENT GROWTH, ABSORPTION HEALTHY AMID BRISK DELIVERIES

Sustained in-migration of residents and companies in the -Fort Worth metro area kept apartment absorption and rent growth moving in a positive direction, both of which accelerated in the four quarters ending in March of this year. Renters newly occupied 22,553 apartments, a 20.3% year-over-year increase. Builders concurrently completed 24,467 apartments, 5.8% more than the prior four-quarter period. One in five new apartments emerged among the neighboring Frisco and Allen/McKinney submarkets, where robust corporate and resident in-migration occurred. Metrowide absorption trailed deliveries, contributing to a 10-basis-point annual dip in occupancy to 94.3% in March 2019. The metro’s tight housing market enabled accelerated rent growth, as effective rent advanced 3.6% annually to $1,119 per month in March, rising from 3.1% growth the prior year. The trend, however, did not extend to the areas with vigorous apartment development over the last few years: operators in the Intown Dallas, Oak Lawn/Park Cities, and Frisco submarkets offered incentives to attract renters, resulting in marginal rent growth, and in the case of Frisco, a reduction in rent.

96% $1,200 OCCUPANCY AND RENT TRENDS

95% $1,100

94% $1,000

93% $900

92% $800 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 4Q18

Occupancy Rate Effective Rent

a Berkshire Hathaway and Jefferies Financial Group company DALLAS-FORT WORTH MULTIFAMILY REPORT

DELIVERIES AND DEMAND

24,000 DELIVERIES AND DEMAND

DELIVERIES 6,319 18,000 Units YTD

12,000

6,000 NET ABSORPTION 4,143 Units YTD 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* Deliveries Demand *Year to date

ECONOMIC TRENDS

Employment expansion in the Metroplex continued 2018 UNEMPLOYMENT* 2019 to eclipse national job growth in the last 12 months. 3.5% 0 BPS 3.5% Through January 2019, local employers added 96,800 CHANGE workers to payrolls, a 2.7% annual increase. The professional and business services sector led with 2018 EMPLOYMENT* 2019 18,200 new workers, a 3.0% gain. The sector will be 3.64m 2.7% 3.74 m supported by Infosys Limited, which plans to hire 500 CHANGE workers by year-end 2020. Approximately 6,300 new positions were filled in the financial activities segment, 2018 EXISTING SFH SALES** 2019 a 2.1% increase. The industry will be underpinned by the imminent completion of Charles Schwab Corporation’s 123.0k -13.4% 106.5k CHANGE regional office in Westlake, where 2,600 employees will work and additional expansion is planned. In the trade, transportation, and utilities sector, employment 2018 MEDIAN SFH PRICE** 2019 expanded 2.2% with 16,800 new hires. Over the next $ $ 256.5k 3.5% 265.4k few years, the sector will be boosted by 800 new jobs CHANGE at Home Depot’s planned distribution center in Dallas, Thirty-One Gifts LLC’s Flower Mound distribution 2018 10-YEAR TREASURY** 2019 center that will employ 650 workers, and hundreds of 2.84% -30 BPS 2.57% new jobs at the planned Amazon Air Regional Hub in CHANGE Fort Worth.

*January; **March U.S. SHARE OF WALLET METRO SHARE OF WALLET

U.S. METRO ANNUAL RENT ANNUAL RENT 27.2 % 18.4% share of wallet share of wallet

FIRST QUARTER 2019 BERKADIA DALLAS-FORT WORTH MULTIFAMILY REPORT SUBMARKET BREAKDOWN

OCCUPANCY AVG RENT AVG RENT NET DELIVERED INCREASE ABSORPTION UNITS SUBMARKET NAME 1Q18 1Q19 1Q18 1Q19 1Q18 1Q19 1Q19 ANNUAL 1Q19 ANNUAL Addison/Bent Tree 95.0% 94.5% 1.0% 1.6% $1,173 $1,192 34 903 123 1,096 Allen/McKinney 92.9% 92.8% 1.6% 1.4% $1,149 $1,165 11 1,856 240 2,024 Burleson/Johnson County 97.7% 96.4% 4.4% 3.9% $942 $979 256 172 249 249 Carrollton/Farmers Branch 94.3% 94.8% 3.9% 3.1% $1,091 $1,125 476 1,261 552 1,250 Central Arlington 95.4% 95.3% 4.7% 4.7% $915 $958 -71 -24 0 0 Central/East Plano 93.6% 94.4% 1.6% 2.4% $1,176 $1,204 86 166 7 7 Denton 95.0% 95.0% 2.8% 4.1% $985 $1,025 -50 303 78 319 93.7% 94.5% 0.7% 3.3% $1,238 $1,279 -66 575 28 416 East Fort Worth 93.5% 92.3% 6.8% 5.1% $846 $889 -65 -157 0 0 Ellis County 97.5% 96.4% 3.6% 2.3% $976 $998 158 563 196 637 Far East Dallas 94.2% 94.7% 3.2% 5.1% $858 $902 -101 101 0 0 Far 94.3% 94.8% 3.6% 3.2% $985 $1,017 89 148 0 0 Frisco 92.7% 92.6% 2.6% -0.6% $1,262 $1,254 712 2,849 896 3,095 Garland 95.8% 95.2% 2.6% 6.8% $946 $1,010 19 499 0 640 Grand Prairie 94.9% 94.5% 4.0% 5.1% $1,014 $1,066 110 620 197 735 Grapevine/Southlake 94.7% 94.6% 3.3% 2.3% $1,276 $1,305 84 499 97 535 Haltom City/Meacham 94.6% 94.9% 4.9% 6.6% $858 $915 301 385 271 383 Hurst/Euless/Bedford 95.2% 94.7% 1.5% 4.2% $998 $1,040 182 505 260 700 Intown Dallas 93.7% 93.6% -0.1% 0.5% $1,676 $1,684 202 1,578 176 1,724 Intown Fort Worth/University 92.1% 92.0% 0.2% 4.1% $1,258 $1,310 756 1,704 989 1,870 /Coppell 94.3% 94.7% 1.0% 2.3% $1,273 $1,302 111 957 229 902 Lewisville/Flower Mound 94.6% 94.5% 2.9% 3.4% $1,099 $1,136 141 646 177 710 Love Field/Medical District 93.3% 94.0% 2.3% 1.5% $1,218 $1,236 23 479 34 446 Mesquite 95.4% 95.4% 4.5% 3.8% $937 $973 -51 0 0 0 North Arlington 93.7% 93.7% 4.7% 2.8% $933 $959 83 83 0 89 North Dallas 92.6% 93.9% 3.6% 1.3% $1,074 $1,088 92 320 0 130 North Fort Worth/Keller 94.8% 93.4% 3.4% 3.3% $1,200 $1,240 -43 408 60 577 North Irving 94.6% 94.7% 4.8% 4.3% $1,017 $1,061 -22 11 0 0 North / 92.6% 94.1% 9.4% 7.7% $1,051 $1,132 241 905 243 777 Northeast Dallas 93.6% 93.4% 7.0% 5.0% $913 $959 -185 586 0 705 Northeast Fort Worth/North Richland Hills 94.6% 95.1% 2.8% 4.2% $1,049 $1,093 20 185 84 116 97.0% 96.0% 5.7% 4.7% $889 $931 54 8 129 129 Oak Lawn/Park Cities 93.0% 92.9% 1.3% 0.6% $1,518 $1,527 103 913 111 1,001 Richardson 94.2% 94.1% 1.2% 3.4% $1,226 $1,268 339 1,139 433 1,228 Rockwall/Rowlett/Wylie 92.4% 92.3% -2.7% 0.7% $1,184 $1,192 372 1,043 422 1,135 South Arlington/Mansfield 95.2% 95.6% 3.2% 5.1% $1,039 $1,092 47 149 0 117 South Fort Worth 95.6% 94.4% 3.2% 4.4% $804 $839 -60 -120 0 0 South Irving 95.7% 95.8% 3.8% 4.0% $905 $941 -63 21 0 0 Southeast Dallas 94.0% 93.3% 4.1% 6.2% $785 $834 -113 -113 0 0 Southern Dallas County 95.3% 94.8% 5.2% 4.0% $986 $1,025 -52 -52 0 0 Southwest Dallas 96.0% 94.8% 5.9% 8.3% $828 $897 -92 -222 0 0 Southwest Fort Worth 94.7% 94.4% 2.3% 3.3% $897 $927 65 -65 0 0 The Colony/Far North Carrollton 94.0% 94.1% 2.8% 2.6% $1,292 $1,326 64 109 0 99 West Fort Worth/Parker County 95.3% 94.7% 6.1% 4.9% $941 $987 -46 -39 0 0 West Plano 94.3% 94.9% 0.2% 2.1% $1,241 $1,267 54 697 38 626 Zang Triangle/Cedars/ 94.2% 94.2% 1.0% 2.3% $1,061 $1,085 -61 0 0 0 TOTALS 94.4% 94.3% 3.1% 3.6% $1,081 $1,119 4,143 22,553 6,319 24,467

© 2019 Berkadia Real Estate Advisors LLC. Berkadia® is a registered trademark of Berkadia Proprietary Holding LLC. Document sources: Axiometrics; Berkadia Research; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Moody’s

BERKADIA FIRST QUARTER 2019 CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS 521 Fifth Avenue 20th Floor New York, NY 10175 (646) 600-7800 | Fax: (646) 600-7838 www.Berkadia.com

a Berkshire Hathaway and Jefferies Financial Group company

© 2019 Berkadia Proprietary Holding LLC Berkadia® is a trademark of Berkadia Proprietary Holding LLC. Axiometrics® is a trademark of Axiometrics Inc. Commercial mortgage loan origination and servicing businesses are conducted exclusively by Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC and Berkadia Commercial Mortgage Inc. This website is not intended to solicit commercial mortgage loan brokerage business in Nevada. Investment sales and real estate brokerage businesses are conducted exclusively by Berkadia Real Estate Advisors LLC and Berkadia Real Estate Advisors Inc. For state licensing details for the above entities, visit: www.berkadia.com/legal/licensing.aspx