The Smart City in 2030

Prof. Dr. Otthein Herzog CIUC - Tongji University, Shanghai, PRC Universitaet Bremen, Germany acatech – German National Academy of Science and Engineering

First Workshop on Network 2030 New York City October 2, 2018 Outline

1. Global City Development

2. Planning Smart City Agglomerations for 2030

3. Smart City Agglomerations and ICT

4. Conclusions The Smart City 2018 2030? ?

https://action.scholastic.com/issues/2017-18/120117/city-of-the-future.html (3000ad/Shutterstock.com) Worldwide City Growth 2000-2016

Source: UN Data with Datawrapper Sphere of Influence – more than 50% of the Earth Population

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/majority-worlds-population-lives-circle/

7 Urbanization Development 1961-2002 – Developed vs. Developing Countries

75% high urbanization ate高城镇化率

50% world average urbanization rage 世界平均城镇化率

1960-2012 comparison of urbanization rate in developed and developing countries（%）数据来源：联合国“世界城镇化展望：2007” Source: United Nations, 2008, p. 74-75 China’s Urbanization in Numbers • From 1978 to 2018, the urbanization ratio of China has risen from 18% to 58%,

• At an urbanization growth of 40%, 640 million people, 46% of the population have moved from rural areas to cities.

• The yearly average is a demographic growth of 16 million/year, but after 1995, the average demographic growth was more than 20 million people/year, with a peak of 25 million in 2010.

• In 2018, the urban population of China has exceeded 800 million: China has transformed itself from a country with 800 million peasants to a country with 800 million urbanians. • In 1978, 790 million peasants lived in rural areas in China and 170 million people lived in cities. • In 2018, 570 million peasants stay in countries and 810 million urbanians live in cities.

• By 2025, the urban population in China will exceed 1 billion and by 2035, 1.15 billion with an urbanization ratio of 75% of 1.5 billion people Urbanization Ratio 城镇化率

China中国

1978 2018 Demographic Urbanization Ration vs. Economic Urbanization Ratio

90.00%

80.00%

70.00%

60.00%

50.00% 经济城镇化率Economic Urbanization 40.00% 城Urbanization镇化率 30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Smart Cities Hypotheses

• For the foreseeable future, the main growth of city agglomerations will take place in Asia and Africa

• The growth rates of European and American cities do not exert enough political pressure to accelerate Smart City developments

• The enormous growth rates of Asian and African cities can only be managed by planning for Smart City Agglomerations

• The main goals for planning African and Asian Smart City Agglomerations for 2030 ff are • Preserving the environment in spite of industrialization • Improve the live of the citizens 1. Outline

1. Global City Development

2. Smart City Agglomerations

3. Smart City Agglomerations and ICT

4. Conclusions Yangtze River Delta Germany (YRD) Shanghai: 24.26 Population Zhejiang: 55.08 2014 80.89 219.77 Jiangsu: 79.60 (million) Anhui: 60.83 Shanghai: 6,340 Zhejiang:101,800 Area (m2) 357,170 355,340 Jiangsu: 107,200 Anhui: 140,000 Shanghai: 385 GDP 2014 Zhejiang: 654 3868 2439 (billion USD) Jiangsu: 1060 Anhui: 340 Shanghai: 15,870 GDP per Zhejiang: 11,874 capita 2014 47,774 11,098 Jiangsu: 13,317 (USD) Anhui: 5,590

1. Data Source: World Bank (for Germany), National Bureau of Statistics of China (for YRD) 2. USD – CNY average exchange rate 2014 (6.14) is used for currency conversion of GDP of YRD. The Cost of the Rapid Urbanization of the Jangtze River Delta • The Yangtze River Delta covers three provinces and one major city. The concurrent phenomena of the high-density concentration of socio-economic elements and the divided governance become the bottleneck in the sustainable development of this region. • The traditional urbanization is coming to its end as it had brought with it serious environment pollution, social conflicts, huge energy consumption and the exhaustion of the demographic dividend: • Pressure of non-sustainable land, water and energy use caused by high-intensity 1and high-density development; • Serious regional environment pollution; • Urban sprawl, deteriorated traffic through congestion and the over-concentration in megacities; • Problematic issues relating to integrated urban-rural development and quality of life and social risks 3 Intelligent Cooperation Breakthrough Tasks+1 Data Platform

Intelligent Diagnosis Intelligent Planning Intelligent for Urban for Urban Governance for Urban Agglomerations Agglomerations Agglomerations

Intelligent Data Platforms for Urban Agglomerations

• The intelligent upgrade of the sustainable development of urban agglomerations depends on the establishment of innovation dynamics that involve multiple disciplines, multiple departments, and multiple institutions. • Join qualitative with quantitative approaches for sustainable Smart Agglomeration planning and operation

• Sensors – Edge Computing - Data transport - Data platforms – Analytics Outline

1. Global City Development

2. Planning Smart City Agglomerations for 2030

1. Smart City Agglomerations and ICT

4. Conclusions 1 规划理念 Planning concept 理念1：共家园 1 IDEAL 1: SHARED HOME

理念2：智生产 2 规划理念 IDEAL 2: INTELLIGENT PRODUCTION

3 理念3：智生活 IDEAL 3: INTELLIGENT LIFE

4 理念4：智生态 IDEAL 4: INTELLIGENT ECOLOGY 理念1：共家园

Ideal 1: Shared Home

马桥元素都市家园幸福邻里 ELEMENTS OF MAQIAO URBAN HOME HAPPY NEIGHBOUR Inheriting intangible cultural Creating a 15 minutes' Building a happy and resources and extending the walking circle of life in harmonious living historical context of the accordance with environment is the ultimate town's development. working,living,relaxing, goal of a beautiful home. teaching and medical care. 理念2：智生产

国际标准动态智配云端应用 INTERNATIONAL STANDARD DYNAMIC INTELLIGENT CONFIGURATION APPLICATION OF CLOUD

Building Maqiao's Intelligent spatial Construction of a digital city international AI standard and configuration guiding urban model with iCloud creating the town's new development and evolution technology and a City image in the future. in all fields by intelligent Information Model. monitoring and analysis. 理念3：智生活

生态社区集聚场景多元织网 ECOLOGICAL GATHERING SCENES MULTISYSTEM Realize thecommunity full coverage of an Include arts and heritage and Activate and utilize the ecological community - display an innovative e- characteristic industries to community harmony, culture. enhance the vitality of the economic efficiency, and an town culture. ecological virtuous circle 理念4：智生态

生态感知低碳集成智能安全 ECOLOGICAL LOW-CARBON INTEGRATION INTELLIGENT SECURITY PERCEPTION Combine different ecological Develop low-carbon smart An emergency plan system and paths such as rain, sewage, energy and manage the disaster relief space system reclaimed water, cold and heat town's energy in a demand- should be formed to cope with all sources, electricity, gas and oriented way. kinds of natural and man-made garbage. disasters in the future. PART 2

Design Concept 概念设计世界上第一个推演未来 2 地块尺度的 Conceptual design 人工智能小镇建设推演规划 Extrapolation planning at a parcel scale AI Planning 2018 simulation start

Building a Simulation Model

Government Citizens

休 Planners 医学

Finance

2030 simulation result 世界上第一个推演未来 2 元空间尺度的 Conceptual design 人工智能小镇建设推演规划 Extrapolation planning at a unit space scale 人工智能规划推演

2018 Simulation start 构建博弈模型

政府

镇民休规划

医学

资本

2030 simulation result 元空间功能 2 推演未来 Conceptual design 人工智能规划推演

构建博弈模型

政府

镇民休规划

医学

资本 2 概念设计 Conceptual design

世界上第一个”三维空间尺度”的人工智能小镇建设推演规划 Intelligent 3D Planning Extrapolation planning at a three-dimensional scale

Ground Floor Upper Floors High-rise Buildings Businesses Living Offices Outline

1. Global City Development

2. Planning Smart City Agglomerations for 2030

1. Smart City Agglomerations and ICT

4. Conclusions Challenges for Smart City Agglomerations: Activity Spheres

Nutrition Mobility Safety and traffic Communication/IT

Urban Production

Politics and administration Buildings and living Human and Transport and Logistics lifestyle

City structure Energy and resource Education Convergence of city infrastructure systems

Environment Service and and climate attendance Health City structure Innovation Cycles of Urban Technologies

Urban technologies must be flexible, innovative, provident, and consistent through long lifecycles

ICT automobile heating system (building) glazing (building) composite insulation heat system (building) construction (building) thoroughfares

Speed of innovationcycles Speedof wastewater infrastructure City structure

0 10 20 30 40 50 100 Temporal horizon in years

Source: acatech (after Drees & Sommer AG) Intelligent Technical Objects… incorporate AI funtions for Smart City Agglomerations enabling real-time efficient, flexible, and autonomous processes that

…interact with the environment adapting to it autonomously (adaptive) …manage even unexpected situations not taken into account by the developer in a dynamic environment (robust) …anticipate the future on the basis of experience knowledge …mitigate effects of influences and possible states (anticipatory) …take into account individual user behavior (user-friendly)

image source: IJMI, O. Wenker Urban Production Smart Factories, CyberPhysical Systems, and the IoT

Smart factories as the basis for the Fourth Industrial Revolution ▪ Distributed, connected, self-configured, and intelligent systems ▪ Reduction of the complexity by modular production plants and processes ▪ Fusion of the virtual and real world Paradigm shift: From centralized control to decentralized, autonomous systems

A higher degree of communication enables coordination! Smart Production: Wittenstein SE in Fellbach/Germany Holistic process optimization for the production of gear wheels:

• Low-noise, low gas emissions, minimal resource consumption in respect to noise, emissions, waste, CO2 emissions, water and waste water, • Fully air-conditioned, but 35% energy savings per m2 compared with old building • Integration into the neighborhood with passive energy homes Truck Transport Figures (Germany)in Transport of Goods

Source: Bundesamt für Güterverkehr, 2002 Room for Improvement in Truck Transport: Traffic volume ▪ in 2002: 23% of covered distances were deadhead in 2012: 20.7% of 30 Billion km ▪ In 2002: only 67% truck utilisation by loading weight (only 58% in long-distance traffic).

Infrastructure growth ▪ continuous traffic increase, ▪ limited infrastructure. 200 201 202 0 0 0 ICT-based Fuel and Emission Reduction of Trucks

Source: National Academies of Science (2017). Guide to Deploying Clean Truck Freight Strategies..DOI 10.17226/24957, p. 14 Bandwidth Drivers: IoT and Interactive User Interfaces

• “The growth of the Internet of Things and the upcoming trend toward more immersive and interactive user interfaces will flip the center of data production and computing away from central data centers to the digital edge.” 1

• “Build strategies for future applications that factor in latency, location, federation and autonomy, as well as determining placement at the edge, cloud and in between.” 1

• “Interconnection Bandwidth is expected to grow globally at a 48% CAGR* to 8,200+ Tbps of installed bandwidth.”2

• “The worldwide IP Traffic CAGR will be 26% by 2021” 2

• “The Global Interconnection Index is a valid measurement for the growing importance of digital services”3

Sources: (1) Gartner Report “The Edge will eat the Cloud” (2018) (2) Cisco (2017). Visual Networking Index. (3) IDC (2018). FutureScape – Worldwide IT Industry 2018. World Interconnection Bandwidth Growth 2021: CAGR in % of Total Installed Bandwidth and Tbps

https://www.equinix.com/global-interconnection-index-gxi-report/ Global Growth of Interconnection Bandwidth: 8,200Tbps in 2021

https://www.equinix.com/global-interconnection-index-gxi-report/ https://www.equinix.com/global-interconnection-index-gxi-report/ Energy and Utility Growth of Interconnection Bandwidth

https://www.equinix.com/global-interconnection-index-gxi-report/ Outline

1. Global City Development

2. Planning Smart City Agglomerations for 2030

1. Smart City Agglomerations and ICT

4. Conclusions Conclusions

AI methods, CPS, and the IoT drive the digitalization of Smart City Agglomerations enabling • environmentally friendly manufacturing in global supply networks with global service platforms • future-proof Smart City Agglomerations planning processes • real-time control of traffic • demand-based and energy-efficient transportation • working and living again in close quarters • Smart City Agglomerations as parts of sustainable ecosystems.

The process towards digitalization of Smart City Agglomerations, Smart Manufacturing, Smart Logistics, and Smart Transportation will be enabled by drastically increasing communication bandwidths. Networking Challenges

• Bandwidth for private/enterprise/manufacturing network access: FTTX (> 1Gb/user) and corresponding pipes to guarantee the bandwidth/user and the QoS

• Low latency communication

• VR/AR/Holograms/gaming

• Real-time traffic control

• Smart Grid control

• Industrial applications

• Connectivity management for trillions of devices in the network/at the network edges The Smart City 2030?

Much more live-in than drive-through cities…

http://cityobservatory.org/visions-of-a-future-city-part-i/ Thank you very much for your attention!

Otthein Herzog [email protected] WeChat: otthein