From Russia's Duma to Presidential Elections ― System Structure & Analysis of Results ―

Home , Alexander Zhukov, Dmitry Medvedev, Impeachment in Russia, Law of Russia

JOGMEC KYMC

JOGMEC Moscow Office, Media Analyst Natalia Medvedeva アナリシス From Russia's Duma to Presidential Elections ― System Structure & Analysis of Results ―

はじめに

2012年3月4日、ロシア大統領選挙が行われ、即日開票の結果、プーチン首相が63.6％の得票率で当選を果たした。2000年にエリツィン大統領の後継として突然表舞台に登場し、大統領就任後2期を務めた同氏は現在のメドヴェージェフ大統領に代わり、5月7日に就任すれば最長12年にわたってロシア連邦を治める可能性も指摘されている。今回の大統領選はプーチン大統領復活との予想が当初よりなされており、大方の予想を裏切らなかった形となったわけだが、大統領選に向けたその他の候補者動向は2011年上半期より見られた。それはプロホロフ氏による右派連合での党首就任（後に辞任）、9月、統一ロシア党大会でのメドヴェージェフ大統領およびプーチン首相によるタンデム交換による大統領選立候補宣言、ロシア市民による体制の硬直化に対する反プーチン熱の高まり、大統領選前哨戦となる12月の下院選挙、そして2012年年初からの大統領候補による選挙活動とまとめることもできる。本稿では今回の大統領選の背景にどのような動静があったのか、振り返ることとする。今回の大統領選はある意味予想を超えて反プーチンを訴える市民の姿が注目された。筆者も一ロシア市民としてどのように今回の結果を見てきたのか紹介しながら、大統領選に大きな影響を及ぼす下院選挙との関係にも言及し、ロシア連邦の大統領選挙の仕組みも説明していきたい＊1。

1. Introduction

The end of the last year and the beginning of 2012 he can participate in the presidential elections of 2018 in Russia were characterized by the significant rise in and thus his power may last until 2024. the political activity of Russian population. Two major To say that Russians were faced with the difficult events of each year made even the most politically choice during the elections will not be quite correct. indifferent citizens think about their own future and Actually, there was no other choice, at least at the future of their country. presidential election, than in favour of Mr. Putin Those events were the election of deputies to the because other candidates obviously lacked for his lower house of the Russian Parliament called State tremendous strength on the political stage and his Duma held on the 4th of December 2011 and the experience in running the state. presidential elections of the 4th of March 2012. As to the State Duma election campaign, it showed The most important result of that election cycle was clearly that Russians of today were not going to give the return of Mr. Vladimir Putin to the presidency their overall support to the ruling party which after his two terms in the same position in 2000-2008 reputation was seriously damaged by cases of deceit and a period of being a prime minister afterwards in and corruption. While analysing the results of the State 2008-2012. Moreover, under the current Constitution Duma election and comparing them with those of

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Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation (the Russian Parliament)

The Council of Federation (the upper house) The State Duma (the lower house)

Consists of 166 members: 2 representatives from each of the 83 Consists of 450 members belonging to officially registered political federal regions. parties which overcome 7% barrier at elections. Appointed / Elected from among the regional deputies (aged >30) to Appointed / Elected from among the party members (aged >21) at legislative and executive local / municipal authorities. their congresses. The list of each party candidates consists of max 600 people who are to represent min 80 regions. The number of the seats is distributed proportionally to voting results. Term: coincides with the term of his deputy duties at the regional Term: 5 years from the voting date of the Parliamentary elections. level of authority. Main Functions and Powers: Main Functions and Powers: Approval of legislative drafts after the approval by the State Duma. Considering and approval of bills by a majority of all deputies. Approval of border changes between Federation member-regions. Deciding the issue of confidence in the Government. Introduction of martial law and state of emergency. Hearing annual reports from the Government about its work. Using the Armed Forces outside the country. Announcement of amnesty. Announcement of presidential elections and impeachment. Bringing charges against the President for his impeachment. Appointment and dismissal of judges of Higher Courts, the Approval of the appointment of Prime Minister chosen by the Prosecutor General and the deputy Chairman and half of the auditors President, appointment and dismissal of the Central Bank head, of the Accounts Chamber, etc. the Chairman and half of the auditors of the Accounts Chamber.

Mostly representative function Mostly legislative function

To become a law, legislative acts must be approved by the both houses and then signed by the president !

出所：http://www.duma.gov.ru; http://www.council.gov.ru

Fig1 Composition of the Russian Parliament

previous years, it seems possible to trace the changes executive branch and the other from the legislative occurred in the people's electoral preferences under branch. the influence of current circumstances. Until the political reforms of early 2000s, members It is hard to look into a country's politics without of the Federation Council were elected, but they are knowing the basics of its state system and election currently appointed via complex procedure involving process. Therefore, a general description of this issue regional legislature and executive and confirmation by forms a background for the review of the recent the president of the Russian Federation. They serve elections in the Russian Federation. for the term of the regional legislative that initiated their candidacies. However, during the last months of 1.1 The Russian Parliament his presidency Mr. Medvedev initiated the legislative The State Duma is the lower house of the Russian act changing the system of nominating the governors Parliament. The upper house is called the Council of by the president for holding direct election. Federation. And both of these houses form the Russian Theoretically, the Federation Council has extensive Parliament which official name is the Federal Assembly powers, including approval of legislative drafts that of the Russian Federation. Duma has already passed, appointment of the date of The Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of presidential elections and others. Members, or the Russian Federation has 2 members from each of 83 “Senators,” as they are referred to, can initiate federal regions, making Federation Council's total inquiries on a wide range of issues. Chairman and his members 166. Each subject of the Russian Federation deputies are elected by members of the Federation has 2 senators in the Federation Council: one from the Council. In reality, however, the Federation Council is

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a formal body with little practical power. represent the regions of the Russian Federation, they The full list of Federation Council's powers is defined consider a law draft from the point of its application or by the Constitution＊2 and it includes the approval of execution in their corresponding region. So, the main border changes between Federation member-regions, function of the Council of Federation is representative. introduction of martial law and state of emergency, The main duty of Duma deputies is to initiate, using the Armed Forces outside the country, elaborate and discuss a law draft taking into account announcement of presidential elections and various view points of political parties. So, the main impeachment, appointment and dismissal of judges of function of the State Duma is legislative. Higher Courts, the Prosecutor General and the deputy Chairman and half of the auditors of the Accounts 1.2 The State Duma Elections and Registered Chamber. Political Parties The State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Elections to the State Duma are conducted according Russian Federation consists of 450 members belonging to the so-called proportional system, e.g. only political to officially registered political parties and they are parties are allowed to compete in elections. The elected according to the principle of a proportional following seven political parties were registered to representation. participate on December 4, 2011 State Duma elections. The State Duma has a wide range of powers described by the RF Constitution: （1）United Russia ａ）consent to the appointment of the Chairman of the United Russia was created in December 2001 by Government of the Russian Federation by the unification of three parties –“Unity” （led by Sergei President of the Russian Federation; Shoigu, then Emergency Minister）,“Fatherland” （led ｂ）deciding the issue of confidence in the Government by Yury Luzhkov, then Moscow Mayor） and“All of the Russian Federation; Russia”（Mentimer Shaymiyev, then President of ｃ）hearing annual reports from the Government of the Tatarstan）. United Russia was created to be majority Russian Federation on the results of its work, ruling party, just like all previous ruling parties including on issues raised by the State Duma; （“Russia's Choice,”“Our Home Russia” and others ｄ）appointment and dismissal of the Chairman of the before it）. Its official ideology is social conservatism, Central Bank of the Russian Federation; advocating right to centrist approach in governance. In ｅ）appointment and dismissal of the Chairman and half reality, however, United Russia is a tool of the Kremlin of the auditors of the Accounts Chamber; to direct the legislative branch in the direction it wants. ｆ）appointment and dismissal of the Commissioner for In 2003 elections, United Russia received majority of Human Rights, who shall act according to federal votes, while in 2007 elections it had enough seats to constitutional law; have so called constitutional majority. In 2011 United ｇ）announcement of amnesty; Russia participated in the election together with the ｈ）bringing charges against the President of the All Russian Popular Front（abbreviation in Russian - Russian Federation for his（her） impeachment; ONF）, an umbrella organization closely linked to Prime The State Duma adopts decrees by a majority of the Minister Putin. United Russia's members are people total number of deputies of the State Duma, unless who are easily controlled, usually have been members another procedure for adopting decisions is envisaged of previous ruling parties, and often have no principles by the Constitution of the Russian Federation. as such except being part of the ruling elite. To become a law, Russian legislative acts must be United Russia notoriously uses its“administrative approved by the both houses – the State Duma and the resources” to stay in power and struggles to ditch the Council of Federation – and then signed by the derogative label“the party of crooks and thieves”. president. However, most Russians credit the regime with Since members of the Council of Federation bringing stability to the nation and ensuring steady

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economic growth. （3）A Just Russia The leaders of the party Vladimir Putin and Boris A Just Russia was created in 2006 when the Gryzlov at that time were Prime Minister and Speaker Kremlin merged three up-and-coming minor parties to of the State Duma correspondingly. Boris Gryzlov create a new, pro-Kremlin leftist party that would being a close ally of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir replace the Communists. But party leaders strayed Putin was the Speaker of Russia's State Duma from 29 from their path, turning their guns on United Russia December 2003 to 14 December 2011. Since 2008, instead of the Communists, which resulted in the Vladimir Putin is the Chairman of United Russia, Kremlin withdrawing support. although officially Putin is not a member of the party, The ideology of the party is defined as leftist and as well as President Medvedev who at the United centrist, supporting social democracy type governance. Russia conference of September 24, 2011 offered Now the party is de facto opposition, even though Vladimir Putin to be the party's official candidate for party bosses have not declared an all-out war on their 2012 presidential elections. former masters. Sergei Mironov, head of A Just Russia's deputy （2）Communist Party of Russian Federation group in Duma, used to be Chairman of the Federation （abbreviation in Russian – KPRF） Council, upper house of Russia's Legislative Assembly Successor to the Communist Party of the Russian but was forced out in May of 2011 after bitter Federation under the Soviet Union, Communist Party disagreements with United Russia party. Technically, of Russian Federation（KPRF） sometimes is regarded current Chairman of party is Nikolai Levichev, while as the only opposition party represented in the State Mironov remains actual leader whose popularity rose Duma and in fact it is the biggest political entity slightly due to his status of“the ousted Speaker”. outside the Kremlin's power vertical. Its ideology is leftist, much like social democratic parties in Europe. （4）Liberal Democratic Party of Russia Its electorate is usually elderly, pensioners, and left- （abbreviation in Russian – LDPR） leaning young voters. They have consistently been in LDPR was created by the Soviet intelligence services the Duma since 1990s, and claim to have support of in April 1991. At that time it was the only opposition roughly 25% of the electorate, though they have lost party to then Communist Party of the Soviet Union. In some of their support base in the past few years. The 1992 after demise of the Soviet Union, it was re- problem boils down to the party's reluctance to registered in new Russia. LDPR was created mainly for modernize its platform by embracing some form of two purposes: first, to control nationalist and extremist social democracy that could score well with younger leaning electorate; and second, to use it a scare tactic voters. Instead, the party's aging leadership caters to in dealing with the West. The idea was that if the West an elderly constituency that still dreams of returning to didn't support governing regimes in new Russia, it may the glory days of the Soviet Union. get someone like Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Party's ideology The Communist Party is led by Gennady Zyuganov, is nationalist, often bordering with fascism, although a well-known public speaker and ardent opponent of all official party platform calls for“liberalism and Russian governments since Boris Yeltsin. He has been democracy.” It claims to have support of roughly 20% leader of the Russian communists since 1993 having of the electorate, but official results have been lower co-founded the party with senior former Soviet than that. Still, LDPR has consistently been in the politicians. He is articulate, usually well informed, but Duma since 1990s. The long-lived activity of the party lacks charisma and appeal to current generation of is completely dependent on a personality of its leader – Russians who have benefited from market reforms and Vladimir Zhirinovsky. He is usually seen as court jester freedoms. Zyuganov participated in several presidential to the nation which allows him to speak more freely elections and each time took second place. than others. Zhirinovsky is often involved in scandals, be it on nationally televised programs, or on the floor

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of the Duma. Although his ideas and party platform represent nationalist sentiments. continues to enjoy certain support among electorate, he Lacking any big names among its leaders and himself has got older and less flamboyant in the past members, the party is led by Gennady Semigin, a couple of years. Zhirinovsky is undoubtedly one of most wealthy former Communist, who left the party over well-known Russian politicians of the modern era, disagreements with Gennady Zyuganov in 2005 and regardless of his ideology, style and language used. organized a separate group within the Duma. The move was supported by the Kremlin, as Communists （5）Right Cause were still viewed by the Kremlin as a dangerous Right Cause was formed by unification of formerly opponent and any split within the ranks of the three opposition parties – Union of Right Forces, Civil Communists were seen weakening their leader Force and Democratic Party in 2008 as a pro-Kremlin Gennady Zyuganov. Semigin continues to be politically party to attract liberals. Its ideology resembles active trying to take away votes from the Communist programs of right leaning parties in the West, with Party, just like the role Kremlin wants this party to focus on market economy, individual rights, lower play. taxes, and so on. Opinion polls indicated that about 15% of the electorate supported neither of four parties （7）Yabloko represented in the Duma, consisting of mainly young, Yabloko was created in 1993 by three members of well to do, and actively business oriented people. Right the First Duma（Yavlinsky, Boldyrev, and Lukin and Cause struggled to gain public support of those who first letters of their names（YBL） later made up the were unimpressed by the four Duma parties until party's name, Yabloko, which means“apple” in billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov became its leader in June. Russian）. It was the first social and liberal leaning Prokhorov was full of energy, and supporters hoped party in the Duma, advocating free enterprise, market that his pro-business platform could breathe fresh air economy, private property and less government into Russia's corrupt and monopoly-dominated economy. interference in business. Yabloko was present in Duma But then the party's Kremlin-linked bureaucracy ousted between 1993 and 2003, but fell short of overcoming him for his dictatorial leadership style. A little-known 5% barrier（for 2003 elections） and 7% barrier（for figure in Russian politics Andrei Dunayev was chosen 2007 elections）. As it has been slipping into obscurity party boss after Mikhail Prokhorov's dismissal in mid for a decade, its poll numbers have plummeted to September 2011. In the long run that scandal benefited roughly 2% in recent years. Prokhorov who later announced his intention to run for A couple of years ago Grigory Yavlinsky stepped presidency, however support for the party at the down as leader of the party entrusting the leadership election decreased significantly. to Sergei Mitrokhin who obviously lacks knowledge and charisma of Yavlinsky, and that further reduced （6）Patriots of Russia voter interest in the party. The party is an offspring of the Communist Party. It was initially created in 2002, later re-registered in The current law specifies a 7% minimum national 2005, when Gennady Semigin broke off with vote requirements for political parties for entering the Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov and parliament. Until the Duma elections of 2007 there incorporated several other smaller movements into the was a 5% requirement. umbrella organization called“Patriots of Russia.” This Thus, only those parties who receive at least 7% of party, too, operates in the leftist side of the public the national vote are able to enter Duma according to spectrum, in the same electoral space like the federal lists of parties and participate in division of Communists do. They claim to be more market friendly seats. and their platform appears to be more in line with In 2011 elections, only United Russia, KPRF, A Just modern economy and society. They also partially Russia and LDPR were able to overcome the 7%

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(1993-1995) (1996-1999) (2000-2003)

4th State Duma 5th State Duma (2004-2007) (2008-2011) (2011-2015)

Independent candidates are restricted to obtain seats in DUMA

出所：http://www.duma.gov.ru/about/history

Fig2 Outcomes of the State Duma elections

requirements. Therefore, number of their seats is Finally, federal laws also specify that political parties determined according to the percentage of votes they that gathered more than 3% of the national vote in the received. Votes received by parties that didn't last Duma elections are eligible for state financing.＊ 4 overcome the 7% barrier are divided among the four Yabloko Party received 3.42% of the national vote in parties, also according to their percentage showings. December 2011 elections, becoming eligible for state In 2011, President Medvedev submitted a law draft financing. to the Duma to lower the barrier from 7% to 5%. In In the history of modern Russia, there has been six October 2011, the State Duma adopted and President convocation of the State Duma. They are: Medvedev signed it into law, but that change will take 1st Duma: 1993-1995（Term 2 years） place only starting for the next Duma elections 2nd Duma: 1996-1999（Term 4 years） scheduled for 2016. 3rd Duma: 2000-2003（Term 4 years） Currently, parties receiving between 5% and 6% of 4th Duma: 2004-2007（Term 4 years） the popular vote are given a single seat in the 5th Duma: 2008-2011（Term 4 years） parliament and the parties receiving between 6% and 6th Duma: 2011-2015（Term 5 years after the 7% are given two seats. However, such members of law was changed in late 2008） Duma can't become members of any party faction, Judging by the results of the previous elections it meaning they can't function as fully as other members can be noticed that the current state authorities try to of Duma.＊3 In the December 2011 elections, there indirectly control the State Duma by taking a number were no parties receiving votes in the 5%-7% range. of steps.

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Until the Duma elections in 2003, in addition to was about to set the date for the State Duma elections, party lists, individuals could also run for elections from President Medvedev said“I would very much like our the“single mandate constituencies.” However, political next Duma to reflect the political preferences of the reforms under then President Putin eliminated single largest possible number of citizens”. However the list mandate candidates, apparently in trying to have of the elected parties to the State Duma in 2007 tighter control of who gets elected to the Duma. And remained unchanged in 2011. as experience has shown, it is much easier to control Russia's political scene has been thoroughly reworked parties and their candidate lists as opposed to trying to since Vladimir Putin rose to power in 2000. Only prevent single candidates in numerous districts. As a seven political parties were left in existence with only result, bright, locally popular and charismatic four of them obtaining seats in the two latest State personalities have become almost non-existent in the Duma convocations. previous and current Duma. Besides, Russia mostly uses a system of manual Besides, when Mr.Putin came to power in 2000 the counting for ballots cast across 83 regions, opening the party called“Unity” headed by then-Emergency door to violations that have been criticized by both the Minister Mr. Shoigu became the pro-governmental opposition and non-governmental organizations and force in the State Duma. Later it was transformed into making it hard to see the real picture of the political “United Russia” party and it rapidly gained population views of Russian population. Meanwhile even official support and seats in 4th and 5th Dumas. results of the State Duma election speak of the grave dissatisfaction of population over the ruling party that 1.3 Voters'Activity lost 15% in 2011 in comparison with the previous While meeting the leaders of registered parties as he election of 2007, when it gained a so-called

Party Leader Characteristics Supporters Vladimir The party of ruling bureaucracy. Mr. Medvedev Loyal to authorities, United Putin headed its electoral list without belonging to it as satisfied with their (not a member) well. Created as pro-presidential party in 1999. living conditions, Russia Members: governors, ministers, high state (UnR) authorities – more than 2 million people. unwilling to have any Boris changes, indifferent. Gryzlov

Communist “Back to the USSR” party of leftist ideology Older generation , Party of Gennady similar to social-democratic parties in Europe. workers of Soviet-era Considered to be the only true opposition party. the Russian factories, people of Zyuganov Created in 1993 to build “renewed” socialism, Federation restore the Soviet Union and fight capitalism. low income, rural (CPRF) population.

Just The party of timeservers. Created in 2006 as Public organisations Kremlin electoral project to capture voters Russia Sergei of veterans, youth, dissatisfied in UnR and to weaken CPRF. Uses disabled, pensioners, (JustR) Mironov leftist ideology. Frequent turnover of members. socially deprived.

Liberal Typical cult-of-the-leader party without defined Those for whom Democratic Vladimir ideology since 1990. Avoiding conflicts with politics is a show, authorities, harshly criticizes other opponents. Party nationalist and Zhirinovsky Uses aggressively flamboyant rhetoric on of Russia international and nationalistic issues. extremist leaning (LDPR) electorate.

出所：http://er.ru; http://kprf.ru; http://www.spravedlivo.ru; http://www.ldpr.ru

Fig3 Parties Elected to the State Duma on December 4, 2011

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アナリシス constitutional majority in 5th Duma allowing United The election result showed that the number of Russia deputies to ignore the opinion of the other United Russia supporters became less than 50%. If to parties in decision-making process. In 6th Duma admit that the results were not fairly counted it might oppositional parties gained much more seats than mean that United Russia actually decreased much less before and their ambition for being more actively than 50%. involved into the Russian legislation process was The leaders and members of“minor” parties almost achieved. In compliance with the results of opinion polls held within a year-period prior to the State Duma elections, Party In 2007 In 2011 Change for the whole year United Russia was enjoying the United 64.30% 49.32% 315→238 （▲ ） highest rate of support kept at the level 50%-60%. Russia 77

Approximately a month after President Medvedev and Communist 11.57% 19.19% 57→92 （+35）

Prime Minister Putin announced that they were going Just 7.74% 13.24% 38→64 （+26） to exchange their posts in 2012, the number of United Russia

Russia voters started slightly decreasing while the LDPR 8.14% 11.67% 40→56 （+16） Communist party and A Just Russia party were Less than 5%, which could not obtain seats receiving more voices than one year ago. The Yabloko 1.59% 3.43% - Patriot 0.89% 0.97% - supporters' ratio of each party clearly demonstrates Right Cause 2.14% 0.60% - that the three parties like Right Cause, Yabloko and Rate of Vote 63.78% 60.10% Patriots of Russia could not even reach 5% level allowing them to obtain at least a single seat in the 出所：RF Central Election Commission HP parliament. In case they could get votes between 6% and 7%, they would have been given two seats. Fig4 Comparison of Result: 2007 vs 2011 However they did not succeed.

Declare of Putin’s Tandem Post Exchange

5% Barrier

出所：Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) HP; The Levada Analytical Center HP

Fig5 History of Supporters' Ratio of Each Party Last One Year

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declared of many falsifications at 2011 parliamentary setting up digital vote counting. elections made in favour of the United Russia. Rallies against the government took place all over Russia, and 1.4 Structure of the State Duma and Energy mostly in Moscow. United Russia was held accountable Lobby for the regime's shortcomings, including kleptocracy The State Duma is led by the Chairman of the State and political and economic stagnation, which especially Duma（or the Speaker）, who is elected by secret ballot irks the middle class. That was the difference from the among the members by receiving more than half of the Arab Spring rebellions, that the driving force behind votes of the total 450 members. In addition, Duma also the protests was not Russia's poor and disadvantaged, elects the first Deputy Chairman and deputy Chairmen but rather the country's rising urban middle class. of Duma. They are elected according to internal The authorities did not agree to satisfy regulations of the Duma, but they all cannot be demonstrators' demands to nullify the election results. members of the same party. Authorities of the However they promised to take measures for avoiding Chairman of the State Duma and Chairman of the this kind of violations at presidential election of 2012, Federation Council are similar.＊5 for example by equipping the polling stations with web- On December 21, 2011, the newly elected VI Duma cameras. President Dmitry Medvedev pledged to gathered for its first plenary session and elected Sergei completely eliminate electoral violations from 2015 by Naryshkin, former head of the Presidential

Appointed by President Medvedev in 2011

Chairmanship of the Council of the Federation Chairmanship of the State Duma

Chairperson of the Council Chairman of of Federation State Duma

First Deputy First Deputy Chairman of Deputy Chairman Chairman of Vice-Chairman Federation of the Council State Duma of State Duma of Federation

Member Member selected selected from from Federal Political Subjects Parties

出所：http://www.council.gov.ru; http://www.duma.gov.ru

Fig6 Chairmanship of the Russian Parliament

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アナリシス administration, as the new speaker of Duma. Sergei what legislative drafts are to be given priority order Naryshkin's candidacy was put forward by the United and which ones are to be delayed for later. Russia party and he received 238 votes. LDPR's During the first plenary session of the VI Duma on candidate for the speaker's post Vladimir Zhirinovski December 21, all 29 chairmen of the Duma committees received 204 votes, while KPRF's Ivan Melnikov were also elected. United Russia members were elected received 203 votes.＊6 to lead 15 committees; KPRF – 6; A Just Russia – 4; Alexander Zhukov of United Russia and Ivan and LDPR – 4.＊10 Melnikov of KPRF were elected First Deputy Speakers The State Duma also has working Commissions. of Duma. Seven deputy speakers of Duma were also Unlike the permanently functioning Committees, the elected: Oleg Morozov, Lyudmila Shvetsova, Sergei Commissions are created on ad hoc basis to address a Neverov, Andrei Vorobyev（United Russia）; Igor specific issue or to function for a specific period of time, Lebedev（LDPR, Vladimir Zhirinovsky's son）; and after which they are dissolved.＊ 11 There were 5 Nikolai Levichev（A Just Russia）. working commissions in 5th Duma, but some or all of The State Duma has a special structure to perform them were expected to be abolished. Another its law-making activities. Council of the State Duma is important function of the Committees and Commission a 14-member consultative and permanent body created is that they are responsible for considering inquiries to handle organizational matters, like determining the from citizens. legislative agenda, of Duma's activities.＊7 Chairman, Members of both Duma Committees and Commissions leaders of the party factions with deciding vote are are deputies, who are usually selected according to members of the Council. Deputy Chairmen of Duma proportional representation of deputy caucuses（groups）, and chairmen of Duma committees participate in the which ensures that all parties are represented. A Council's meetings but have no voting powers. committee or commission usually has no fewer than 12 Main structural units of the State Duma are and no more than 35 members. All members of the Duma, committees, organized according to their spheres of excluding Chairman, Deputy Chairmen and leaders of the responsibilities. There were 32 committees in 5th deputy caucuses（groups） must be members of committee Duma（2007-2011） but newly 6th Duma has only 29 or a commission. A Duma deputy can be member of only committees. They are responsible for initial one Committee or Commission. They hold meetings, but consideration of draft laws and their preparation for no often than twice a month. They also hold public consideration of Duma; preparation of committees' hearings, conferences, seminars to find out public opinion conclusions on draft laws; preparation of requests to regarding legislative issues and other relevant matters.＊12 the Constitutional Court as instructed by the Duma; Duties, rights and status of members of both the holding public hearings, etc. Duma committees function Federation Council and the State Duma are determined for the duration of the current Duma itself. by a Federal Law. Members of Duma have rights to Chairman of a committee, the first deputy chairman unite in“party factions” which are usually consists of and deputy chairmen of a committee are elected by a members of a political party and deputy groups＊13 ; put majority of votes of the Duma members, according to a forward a legislative draft; inquire with executive list of candidates submitted by a party faction, often as branch; etc. while fulfilling his/her responsibilities as a single list of candidates to all those positions.＊ 8 members of a respective chamber. However, any Chairmen of Duma committees are powerful figures, as member of the State Duma can be only a member of they are responsible for interacting with the Chairman one party faction＊14 and that faction must be of a of the State Duma and his deputies; executive branch, political party that the deputy ran on the federal list of including the General Prosecutor, Central Election candidates during elections.＊15 Commission, Central Bank of Russia, the Audit There are five Committees of the State Duma with Chamber of the Russian Federation; respective bodies specific and general authority over the energy matters. of foreign parliaments, etc.＊9 They can also decide

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1）Committee on Energy chaired by Ivan Grachev, A committee with general mandate to review and Just Russia,（Yuri Lipatov of United Russia in 5th make necessary changes to the government budget, Duma） and consisting of 14 members. tax and related issues. The Committee has jurisdiction over legislative 5）Committee on Property chaired by Sergei Gavrilov, regulation of activities of fuel and energy complex KPRF,（Viktor Pleskachevski of United Russia in 5th industries. Questions of functioning and development Duma）. of electricity sector, nuclear energy, gas, oil and coal This committee is also involved in legislative matters industries, including issues related to legislative concerning the state's stakes in existing and potential regulation”＊16 are just some examples of the committees project, including matters related to“management of jurisdictional issues. All of oil and gas related stakes of federal property,”“management of federal legislative issues must be initially discussed and property and assets, including those outside of the approved by this committee before they reach full Russian Federation's territory,”“nationalization” ＊20 and Duma floor. Tax and customs issues related to the oil other matters. and gas industries are also under jurisdiction of the Major Russian energy and power companies like Energy Committee. In addition, the Committee Gazprom, Rosneft, Rosatom, Lukoil, Surgutneftegas, cooperates with other Duma Committees on those Tatneft, Bashneft, RAO UES, Novatek and others have issues that have any energy industry related used various ways to lobby their interests in respective components. Duma committees. One widely discussed method is to 2）Committee on natural resources, nature use and ensure elections of energy industry professionals to ecology chaired by Vladimir Kashin, KPRF,（Yevgeni Duma. There have been extensive speculations in both Tugolukov of United Russia in 5th Duma）. Russian and Western media about buying Duma seats, This committee is perhaps the most powerful when it although it is hard to prove such allegations. Such comes to legislation related to subsoil use, amendments reports have alleged that major energy companies and additions to the existing subsoil use laws, and finance election campaigns of specific candidates by environmental matters. It has jurisdiction over“rational including their names in the federal list of political use of natural resources, including subsoil use,”＊ 17 parties at the Duma elections. Another method is Product Sharing Agreement（PSA） related legislative directly approaching a member of Duma committee issues, the Arctic Shelf related exploration and with jurisdiction over the energy industry. And finally, development issues, Russia's Exclusive Economic Zone senior managers of energy companies also try to have related issues are also under jurisdiction of this good personal relations with powerful committee committee.＊18 It is one of most lobbied Committees of chairmen to advance their companies' goals. The most the Duma, as oil and gas companies try to get better obvious and often lobbied issues are tax and tariffs, legislative terms for potential projects and improve especially for capital intensive Far Eastern and Arctic existing legislation. projects, but not only. 3）Committee on Transport chaired by Yevgeni However, the Russian companies are very familiar Moskvichev, United Russia,（Sergei Shishkaryev of with the limitations of lobbying efforts in Duma, as the United Russia in 5th Duma）. Kremlin and the Cabinet of Ministers, as well as The committee on Transport is responsible for specific ministries, remain ultimate decision makers in legislative regulation of“all forms of the Russia. In this regard, companies are much more likely transportation complex,” including“pipeline to concentrate their lobbying efforts in the Kremlin and transport（oil and oil products）.”＊19 the Cabinet of Ministers as opposed to Duma. In the 4）Committee on budget and taxes chaired by Andrei US, for instance, the Congress has crucial role in both Makarov, United Russia,（Yuri Vassilyev of United legislating and regulating the energy industry. Russia in 5th Duma）. Committee on budget and taxes by default is another

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2. Political Systems of Russia, USA and Japan

If to look briefly at the political systems of such people and directly elected by the old electoral college countries as the Russian Federation, Japan and the system. To win the presidency, a candidate must United States of America, big differences in the way gather 270 votes（just 2 votes more than 50% of the they are ruled will be revealed. The US system can be total 538 votes） under electoral college system. Next best described as a republic, while Russia is a federal presidential election in the USA will take place in state with a republican form of government. Unlike November 2012. both Russia and the US, Japan has a parliamentary system. Therefore, election process in those countries ［ Japan ］ goes in their own special manner bearing almost no Japan is a constitutional monarchy with a resemblance to each other. parliamentary government. Sovereignty, previously embodied in the emperor, is vested in the Japanese ［ Russia ］ people, and the Emperor is defined as the symbol of The current format of the Russia's state institutions the state.＊22 Sometimes Emperor Akihito acts as head rests with the Constitution of the Russian Federation of the state with broad public support. which was adopted at a popular referendum on Japan's government is a parliamentary democracy, December 12, 1993 and describes Russia as“a with a House of Representatives（also known as the democratic federative law-governed state with a Lower House） and a House of Councillors（sometimes republican form of government.” Thus, Russia has a called the Upper House）. The two houses together federal system of the government with strong called the Diet. In many ways, the Diet is the centre of presidential powers. President is elected directly by the political power in Japan and considered to be more Russian citizens“on the basis of universal, equal, direct powerful than executive and the judiciary branches of suffrage by secret ballot,”＊ 21 as described in the the government. The executive branch reports to the Constitution. In other words, election of the president Diet. is a straightforward procedure. Officially, the Federal The chief of the executive branch, the Prime Assembly（legislative branch） has strong legislative Minister, is appointed by the Emperor as directed by power and the Judiciary is independent. In reality, the Diet. He must be a member of either house of the however, the Executive branch is more powerful and Diet and a civilian and is designated by his colleagues. often dictates the agenda of the two other branches. The Cabinet members are nominated by the Prime For centuries, Russia has been ruled by and from the Minister, and must also be civilian.＊ 23 The Prime Kremlin, and this tradition seems to continue well in Minister is the Head of Government. The prime modern Russia. minister has the power to appoint and remove ministers, a majority of whom must be Diet members. ［ The USA ］ The Prime Minister rarely serves his full term given The USA is a republic form of the government with Japan's political conditions. equally strong three branches of the government: executive（The President）; legislative（the Congress）; The most telling difference between the three and judiciary（the Courts）. Head of the state is the systems is that Japan does not have the position of president, but his powers are limited by the Congress President and there is no Prime Minister in the USA, and the Judiciary. Presidential election system in the while Russia has to deal with both of them. Russian US is very complex and, in many ways, is archaic. The President is to officially represent the state at president in the US is not directly elected by popular international level and apart from other duties it is the vote. Rather, the president is indirectly elected by the president who offers his choice of Prime Minister for

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Russia USA Japan

President: How the President is Elected Universal, equal, direct suffrage by secret ballot, Indirectly, Electoral College System. To win, a direct elections by majority of popular vote. candidate must gather 270 electoral votes out Not Applicable of total 538. President: Functions, Powers Dismissal of the prime minister and Duma; Powers are limited by two other branches of the appointment of ambassadors, etc. So called government – Legislative (the Congress) and Not Applicable “Power Ministries” – Defense, Police, Intelligence the Judiciary (the Courts) – the system of – directly report to the President. “checks and balances.”

Prime Minister: How the Prime Minister is Chosen No Prime Minister’s post. The president also Appointed by the Emperor as directed by fulfills most of powers that usually belong to the Diet, but first the Prime Minister is President Chooses the Prime Minister, Prime Minister in other countries. Some of chosen by the Diet by winning majority but Duma has to approve the choice. such powers are bestowed on the Vice of votes. If the two houses can’t reach President, who becomes president if the an agreement, House of Representatives president is unable to fulfill his/her duties. prevails.

Prime Minister: Functions, Powers

PM chooses his Cabinet, which is limited Prime Minister conducts daily business of the to 14 regular members with the possibility Cabinet of Ministers; becomes acting president if of 3 special members. At least half of the the president is unable to fulfill his/her duties. Not Applicable Cabinet must be members of the Diet. PM Except “power ministries,” the rest of the can dissolve the House of Representatives government reports to the prime minister. and appoint and remove ministers.

出所：Analytical Report by Dr. Elshan Alekberov, Dec.29, 2011

Fig7 Comparison of Russian, US and Japanese Political Systems

the approval by State Duma. Prime Minister conducts the period during which a person can hold the office of daily business of the Cabinet of Ministers and all the President to two consecutive terms. There is no ministers except for power ministers such as defense, limit to the total number of terms that a President may police and intelligence are to report to him. The power serve, just a limit on successive terms. ministers are to report directly to President. The president is entitled to stay in office for six The Constitution of the Russian Federation is a little years. It used to be four years but the Constitution was vague on the rights and duties of the Prime Minister of changed in 2008 to allow the extension to six. Besides, Russia. Which means that in today's Russia President the presidential election is conducted as stipulated by Dmitry Medvedev（possibly future Prime Minister） the Federal Law“On elections of the President of the and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin（no doubt future Russian Federation”. The law specifies the procedures President） are acting as very nearly co-equals in a of putting forward candidates for the presidency, either "tandem administration" that pushes the boundaries of by political parties or by individuals themselves. the role of the Prime Minister's office almost to co- Political parties officially registered with the Ministry President. of Justice have legal rights to put forward presidential candidates＊24. The seven political parties that 2.1 Presidential election system in Russia participated in 2011 Duma elections were allowed to According to the Constitution of the Russian submit their candidates as political organizations. Federation, a person willing to run for presidency has Furthermore, the parties which are represented in the to be a citizen of Russia not younger than 35, and has current State Duma do not have to collect two million permanently resided in the Russian Federation for at signatures of support for their candidate as all the least 10 years. The Constitution of Russia also restricts others should do.

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1991 1996 2000 2004 2008

Winner

Presidential Boris Yeltsin Boris Yeltsin Vladimir Putin Vladimir Putin Dmitry Medvedev 57.30% 53.82% 52.94% 71.31% 70.28% Votes N.Ryzhkov G. Zyuganov G. Zyuganov N. Kharitonov G. Zyuganov

Other V. Zhirinovsky A. Lebed G. Yavlinsky S. Glazyev V. Zhirinovsky candidates A.Tuleev G.Yavlinsky A.Tuleev I. Khakamada A. Bogdanov A.Makashov V. Zhirinovsky V. Zhirinovsky O. Malyshkin V.Bakatin Sv. Fyodorov K Titov S. Mironov M. Gorbachev E. Pamfilova M. Shakkum S. Govorukhin Yury Vlasov Y. Skuratov V.Bryntsalov A. Podberyezkin U. Dzhabrailov

出所：http://kremlin.ru; http://www.putin2012.ru; http://www.yeltsin.ru

Fig8 History of the presidential elections in Russia

Individuals can also run for presidency on their own 40.31 percent. initiative, but such a candidate must be supported by a After the presidential elections of 2000 when group of voters that need to be registered with the Vladimir Putin came to power the number of Central Election Commission. Thus, almost anyone who presidential candidates shrank to 4-5 people, usually the meets legal requirements theoretically can become a leaders of officially registered political parties. There presidential candidate. are no constitutional or legal requirements for the To gain the presidency, the candidate must secure president and/or the prime minister to be member of 50% of the poll plus one vote during the direct the United Russia party or any other political party. elections. If there is no outright victor, the two leading But politically, membership or affiliation with a major candidates go through to a run-off which is to be held political party or coalition of political parties and within two weeks. movements is both advantageous and sometimes The only time in the presidential elections history of necessary. modern Russia when the presidency was decided at For example, in 1991, Boris Yeltsin ran as the run-off elections occurred in 1996 after incumbent independent candidate but was supported by the President Boris Yeltsin gathered most votes at a first Democratic Russia block. When he decided to quit the round but not enough to win outright. At a second presidential post at the end of 1999, he nominated Mr. round he had to face his challenger Gennady Zyuganov Putin, then head of intelligence service, to be his representing the Communist Party as the candidate successor. At that time in 2000 Mr. Putin had to run with the second highest number of votes. According to as a member of the Unity party because at the official results Boris Yeltsin won the run-off election presidential elections his victory was expected but not with 53.82 percent of votes against Mr. Zyuganov's guaranteed. He needed a strong political party support.

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In 2004, President Putin could afford to run as career. His announcement last September that he independent candidate because his popularity was high, would run for a third term and allegations of and nevertheless the United Russia party supported widespread fraud at the State Duma elections stirred him as well. up the feeling of dissatisfaction among voters, The connection between a party and a presidential prompting unprecedented mass protests in Moscow candidate mirrors the connection between the and other cities. Putin started to fight against sliding parliamentary election and the presidential election. approval ratings back in May 2011 by founding the Some analysts believe that who becomes next president All-Russia People's Front, which unites all his of Russia is not decided by the Russian people directly supporters under a brand different from the at the elections. In their opinion, it is decided increasingly unpopular United Russia party, which beforehand by the ruling elite. In that sense, Duma Putin chairs but never joined. election results matter little for the outcome of the presidential elections. On the other hand, results of （2）Gennady Zyuganov Duma election are important to confirm the legitimacy The Communist Party supported Gennady Zyuganov of what is to come at the presidential election. In other as the party's candidate and the party's leader since words, with the expected majority in Duma, the United 1995. Zyuganov claimed that under his rule, Russia Russia party has the right and indeed a duty to would have combat social inequality, demographic propose its own candidate as it did on September 24, problems, the breakdown of the defence industry, 2011 nominating Mr. Putin. moral degradation and the oil dependence of the economy. If elected, Zyuganov vowed that Russia 2.2 Presidential candidates of 2012 would adjust closer political and economic relations It is worth mentioning that unprecedented by any with CIS countries, including Ukraine, Belarus and Western standards, Russian public was unaware of the Kazakhstan, forming a "union of brotherhood nations." name of candidates to the presidency until United Zyuganov wants to maintain nationalization in key Russia conference announced Mr. Putin's candidacy industries — including oil — and sectors like banking, just five and a half months before the presidential energy, plane construction and railway transportation. elections in 2012. While the Communist Party platform still has a solid The Russian law＊25 specifies that for presidential core of supporters — mainly among pensioners — it election to be valid, more than one candidate must be has had trouble connecting with younger voters for on ballots. Thus, 2012 Presidential candidates were: some time. Zyuganov has been accused of failing to modernize the Communist Party platform. （1）Vladimir Putin United Russia supported Vladimir Putin as the （3）Sergei Mironov party's candidate, although he is not a party member. A Just Russia supported Sergei Mironov as the Putin is the strongest candidate of all the others, party's candidate and the party's leader. A trained because he has dominated national politics for the past geologist and former head of the Federation Council, 12 years. Being a president during the two terms from Mironov had not ever been accused of corruption. If 2000 to 2008, his popularity soared over 75 percent. elected, Mironov promised to raise taxes on the rich, The country saw big economic growth and prosperity bar offshore companies from exploiting Russian mineral at that period. When he resigned due to a constitutional resources and create a 20 percent export tax on capital limit on a third consecutive term, he entrusted the outflows. Mironov might be the only moderate left Kremlin to his ally Dmitry Medvedev while he alternative to independent candidate Mikhail Prokhorov continued to wield influence by becoming the most and Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, but powerful prime minister in post-Soviet history. And his avoidance of attacking Putin directly and his refusal yet, Vladimir Putin faced the biggest challenge of his to speak at the opposition rallies — despite pressure to

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PUTIN, Vladimir Vladimirovich ZYUGANOV, Gennady Andreevich Prime Minister from 08, 59yrs old First Secretary of Communist Party from 95, 67yrs old In September, 2011, declared to run election and In 1996, supported by 40%, in 2000, 29%, in 2008, 18% exchange posts with Medvedev. (In 2004, he didn’t run). ZHIRINOVSKY, Vladimir Voľfovich MIRONOV, Sergey Mikhailovich Leader of LDPR from 90, 65yrs old Leader of A Just Russia from 06, 59yrs old In 1991, supported by 8%, in 1996, by 6%. In 2004 decided to He was engaged as the Senator from 2001. remove form presidential run. In 2008, supported by 9%.

PROKHOROV, Mikhail Dmitrievich YAVLINSKY, Grigory Alexeyevich Former President of ONEXIM, 46yrs old Leader of Yabloko Party from 93, 59yrs old In June 2011 became the leader of Right Cause but In every DUMA Election, in 03, 07 & 12, minimum resigned in September. The 3rd rich person in Russia. condition article didn’t allow to obtain seats in DUMA. MEZENTSEV, Dmitry Fyodorovich Governor of the Irkutsk Region from 09, 52yrs Cancelled due to Cancelled due to old invalid signatures invalid signatures He was appointed as Governor since 2009 by Medvedev.

出所：JOGMEC Moscow

Fig9 Candidates for Russia's Presidency in 2012

do so from his own party — rose suspicions about him （5）Mikhail Prokhorov being just a“Kremlin project”. If so, his departure Formerly he headed the Right Cause party but ran from the Council of Federation in 2011 might be 2012 presidential elections as an independent regarding as a start of his presidential candidate candidate. The 46-year-old billionaire businessman is a “puppet show”. Ultimately, Mironov lacks a certain relative unknown compared to his opponents and has personal charisma that has resulted in him having never held public office. Many view him suspiciously as lower approval ratings than his own party. a possible Kremlin protege candidate designed to distract protesters' attention which seems plausible for （4）Vladimir Zhirinovsky he was the only official candidate to have appeared at Liberal Democratic Party of Russia supported opposition rallies. His platform mirrored the protesters' Vladimir Zhirinovsky as the party's candidate and the demands for free elections and political liberalization. party's leader. Having 18 years of experience in the Prokhorov stated that his main goal was to boost legislature, Zhirinovsky ran for presidency four times efficiency and reduce waste in the economy by previously in 1991, 1996, 2000 and 2008. But he is promoting competition. He also proposed privatizing tainted by his somewhat buffoonish image as public state corporations and working with private businesses brawler who engages in offensive shouting matches to improve the country's infrastructure. Prokhorov with his opponents. His political platform is based pledged to tackle corruption and red tape, which could mostly on populist slogans of nationalist rhetoric. He have wooed pro-business voters. But the metal calls for as much privatization of state-run businesses magnate's extravagant wealth — estimated at up to as possible and complete economic freedom for the $18 billion — combined with his suspected links to the regions and municipalities. If elected, he vowed to turn Kremlin, made it not easy for him to gain voters' trust. Russia into a parliamentary republic, do away with Thus, all the parties represented in the parliament ethnic territorial divisions and declare Russians the nominated their own candidate. Others had to collect chief nationality of the country. His party is often two million signatures of support that were then viewed as a Kremlin puppet playing its role for scrutinized by Russia's Central Electoral Commission. attracting unselective voters or members of marginal Supporting signatures for Mr. Mezentsev, governor of social groups. the Irkutsk region, and Mr. Yavlinsky, founder of the non-parliamentary party Yabloko, failed to meet the

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Time Events

President of ONEXIM Group, Mikhail Prokhorov revealed intention to become the May, leader of Right Cause in May and became officially on 23rd June. Right Cause June, 2011 supports liberal economic policy and also reelection of President Medvedev(at that time it has no seat in DUMA).

President Medvedev recommended Valentina Matvienko, the Mayor of St. Petersburg June to to become the Senator. With acceptance of this proposal, she resigned as the Mayor, September, 2011 stood as a candidate and elected as the member of Upper House in August. On 21st September, announced officially as the Senator.

On 15th, Prokhorov resigned as the leader of Right Cause due to dissension there. September, On 24th, President Medvedev proposed Putin to become the candidate of next 2011 President and Putin accepted. Also Putin showed intention that Medvedev to be Prime Minister instead. On the same day, Minister of Finance, Kudrin at the news conference in Washington expressed his refuse to work under Medvedev as Prime Minister. President Medvedev recommended him to resign and he resigned instantly.

October, 4th, Putin announced the conception of “Eurasia Union”. 2011 6th, Putin mentioned that the resigned Kudrin would remain as his brain.

11th, Putin stated at Valday Meeting that he, as next President, will control over November, 2011 defense, diplomacy and energy and Prime Minister will take care of economic policy and appointment of ministers. 27th, United Russia declared officially that Putin ran candidate of next President.

出所：JOGMEC Moscow

Fig10 Events related to the State Duma and Presidential election campaigns

necessary requirements, and the two candidates were and sports associations, well known actors, sport stars, barred from standing by the Central Electoral and in general widely known people and organizations Commission. Grigory Yavlinsky did not acknowledge are encouraged to become members of the Popular the signatures invalid and considered this move to be Front. It looks like an umbrella organization that politically motivated. attempts to unite Vladimir Putin's supporters or make an impression of such a support. Leaning on the 2.3 Key events and players of the election Popular Front, Mr. Putin wanted to position himself as campaigns a candidate from much broader coalition, than just a Long before December 4, 2011 Duma election, Prime leader of a ruling party - United Russia. For Putin, Minister Vladimir Putin had created the“All Russian perhaps the Popular Front added further legitimacy for Popular Front”（abbreviation in Russian - ONF） that his come back to the presidency. appeared to have been designed to become his support Meanwhile, analysts believe that Vladimir Putin's base for the 2012 presidential elections. Moreover, real power base is founded on the so-called“siloviki,” Putin did not reject the support for his presidency by people who are in or have been associated with the the United Russia party. However, neither Vladimir intelligence, police, army and other law enforcement Putin nor anyone else has offered a good explanation of agencies. Complimented by other elements, financial, what the Popular Front is, except for it is neither a for example, they constitute an influential force political party, nor a non-profit organization. It has not necessary to exert wide reaching and effective control been registered with the Ministry of Justice nor has over political and economic situation in the country. any bylaws and its status as well as its funding sources Under President Medvedev their power has not been are rather unclear. Many organizations, professional diminished and they continue to dominate Russia's

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アナリシス political life. was one of key figures in instituting the“60-66” The below mentioned officials are key players and system this past summer designed to improve Russia's close allies of Vladimir Putin who are together with the energy exports. Sechin is one of candidates that a network of current and former intelligence officials potential Cabinet restructuring could affect, and if he is may be described as“siloviki”. forced to leave the government, he would probably Sergei Ivanov was appointed head of the Presidential become a top figure in one of the oil and gas giants. Administration on December 23, 2011, replacing Analysts of the newest Russian history sometimes Sergei Naryshkin who became speaker of Duma two used to oppose“siloviki” to“liberals”. From this point days earlier. While Sergei Naryshkin has been clearly of view, the election campaigns of 2011-2012 brought promoted, Sergei Ivanov, who used to be First Deputy no big success to the latter. Prime Minister under President Putin and Deputy For example, events of September 2011 give rise to Prime Minister under President Medvedev, appears to doubts over the return of Ex-Minister of Finance and have been demoted. But there must a reason for one of“St.Pete liberals” Alexei Kudrin to the Ivanov's appointment to a key position under future government in any capacity. Prime Minister Putin has Putin presidency. Sergei Ivanov is a trusted ally of publicly stated that Dmitry Medvedev will be his Vladimir Putin and apparently remains so. choice of Prime Minister, although Alexei Kudrin must Igor Sechin continues to be Deputy Prime Minister have cherished hopes of heading the government under in charge of the energy block. Although rumours of the future Putin presidency. He seemed apparently Sechin losing his job have been circulating for some hurt and even attended protest meetings in Moscow time, he continues to work hard at his position. Sechin saying that he agreed with the demands of the

Time Events

DUMA Elections result 4th December 2011 Party Leader number of seats Party Leader number of seats United Russia PUTIN 49.32% - 238 seats CPRF ZYUGANOV 19.19% - 92 seats

A Just Russia MIRONOV 13.24% - 64 seats LDPR ZHIRINOVSKY 11.67% - 56 seats

5th, 10th & 24th demonstration against the result of DUMA election and Putin took place. December, 12th, Kudrin showed his intention to establish new liberal party. 2011 12th, Prokhorov declared to run in Presidential Election. 15th, President Medvedev appointed Naryshkin, the Head of Presidential Administration to be the speaker of DUMA and Ivanov, Deputy Prime Minister to succeed his place instead. Also, Zhukov, Deputy Prime Minister was appointed to be the member of DUMA. 16th, Siluanov, Acting Minister of Finance appointed to be the Minister. 27th, President Medvedev announced to exchange the post between Surkov, First Deputy Head of Presidential Administration and Volodin, Deputy Prime Minister.

January, 11th, Putin redefined the status of First Deputy Prime Ministers and Deputy Prime Ministers. 2012 From 16th, Putin started to contribute his principles on each political subjects and published in staple news paper every Monday. Total report were 7 until 27th February. 18th, Central Election Committee accepted total 7 appliers as presidential candidate(Putin, Zyuganov, Mironov,Z hirinovsky, Prokhorov, Yavlinsky, Mezentsev) 27th, Central Election Committee cancelled 2 candidates, Yavlinsky and Mezentsev, due to invalid of 2 million supporters’ signature.

1st, Khristenko, Minister of Industry and Trade resigned and became the Secretary General of February, Economic Committee of Eurasia Union. 2012 4th & 26th, demonstration of anti Putin took place while Putin supporters held meeting on 23rd.

4th March, 2012 Presidential Election

出所：JOGMEC Moscow

Fig11 Events related to the State Duma and Presidential election campaigns

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protesters. Later he made public his intention to liberals, by President Medvedev doesn't speak in favour establish a new liberal party, and in April he of the liberal block's prospects either. announced his plans of establishing a committee of civic initiatives. 2.4 Mr. Putin's victory The other participant of anti-governmental meetings, Vladimir Putin has proven himself the indispensable a newcomer politician Mikhail Prokhorov has made man in Russian politics. From the declaration that he much more ado about his ambitions. Before summer would seek the presidency in September to his refusal 2011 he was only known for his billions of dollars, to participate in televised debates, Putin set the rules bachelor status and exceeding two meters height. for this contest, and spared no effort to make sure he Besides, he was a notorious frequenter of Courchevel would win it convincingly. luxurious resort where he once was detained for four Before the presidential election some polls suggested days by the French police on a charge of complicity in that Putin could fail to get more than 50 percent in the international prostitution network. His rapid March 4 vote, making a second round necessary. But advancement on the political stage has also started most experts predicted that the Kremlin would not with a scandal when he was eventually forced to quit allow that to happen despite the instalment of 200 his position from the Right Cause on September 15, thousand web-cameras in 90 thousand polling stations 2011. After that, during the parliamentary election to prevent fraud. campaign analysts were mostly focused on the According to a public opinion poll conducted at the prospects of the Right Cause which was created as a end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012, Vladimir Putin Kremlin project and predicted that it would not gather was the only candidate whom the majority of Russians enough votes to enter the parliament and it actually saw as their future president with more than 50 happened so. Then nobody could guess that the Right percent of supporters and with none of the other Cause was just used as a platform for Mr. Prokhorov candidates polling more than 15 percent. This shows to make his first political steps. The image of an clearly that number of voters who regard Putin as a overthrown party leader and an oppositionist allowed safe pair of hands providing stability and security Mr. Prokhorov to show up as a presidential candidate. significantly prevails over those who feel he has A rapid advancement of his political career as well as overstayed his welcome and want a move away from his ability to collect two million signatures in his heavy-handed political management. support leaving behind such an experienced politician Even the unprecedented public protests against his as Mr. Yavlinsky, leader of Yabloko, raised big doubts government were turned to his advantage because he about the absence of some hidden leverage in Mr. could consolidate his support. Mr. Putin was able to Prokhorov's promotion. It seems very probable, that his mobilize his core electorate – the workers, the state well funded campaign was in the long run aimed at officials, the civil servants, the blue-collars – all the attracting liberally minded voters dissatisfied with non- people whom the state pays salaries to and gives changeable presidential candidates to polling stations. orders to. This electorate has probably been shaken Election campaign actually did not see much and stirred by the fact that the opposition has so many confrontation between“siloviki” and“liberals”. people, that they are so vocal, and this has pulled them “Siloviki” rule Russia and the situation is unlikely to be into action. The overall rise in political activity of changed under Mr. Putin's presidency. The best chance population secured 65.34% turnout at Russia's March 4 when so-called liberals had to make their views known presidential election. seemed possible during Mr. Medvedev's presidency. With 100% of the ballots counted in the Russian But that chance was largely wasted, either due to presidential election, Vladimir Putin held the lead with President Medvedev's inability or unwillingness to 63.60% of the vote. Communist Party leader Gennady promote liberals over“siloviki.” The dismissal of Alexei Zyuganov placed second with 17.18%, business tycoon Kudrin, who was the best known figure among the Mikhail Prokhorov third with 7.98%, Liberal

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% 60 decade ago, that prosperity is attributable Putin 50 largely to rising energy prices, high state Zyuganov 40 spending, and the lingering effects of reforms Zhirinnovskii 30 undertaken during the 1990's. If the price of Mironov 20 oil returns to last decade's highs, then decent Prokhorov 10 wages, reliable state services, and freedom to No intention for vote 0 travel are probably enough to keep the 10&11 17&18 24&25 07&08 14&15 21&22 28&29 No answer Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan middle class busy – but take any one of those 出所：Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) HP; The Levada Analytical Center HP away, and the tens of thousands marching on Moscow's streets could become millions. Public opinion poll results Putin's main argument was that he alone Fig12 from Dec 2011 to Jan 2012 could guarantee stability, and that all other candidates carried a risk of somehow ruining Democratic Party leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky fourth the country. This line of thought is often shared by with 6.22% and A Just Russia party leader Sergei foreign investors, and Putin declares the intention of Mironov fifth with 3.85% respectively. placing Russia "among one of the top 20 countries in Putin is set to begin a third term in the Kremlin on the world" in terms of its business climate. May 7, 2012. And despite all the difficulties of the While he said that improving the country's election campaign, Mr. Putin remains to be the most investment climate is key to achieving all economic and popular and the strongest politician in the country and social goals, he seemed to take a cautious stance on the it is quite natural that he received the majority of the country's privatization drive, which is seen as a key votes, having left far behind other candidates. step in modernizing its economy. The plan is to sell one The mere existence of a Russian middle class is, trillion Russian rubles（$33.5 billion） of state-owned according to Putin, proof that his leadership has made companies by 2014. life better for ordinary people. While it is true that Putin also hailed achievements on containing many Russians live much better today than they did a unemployment during the crisis, while slowing inflation

Rate of Vote: 65.34% ZHIRINOVSKY 6.22% MIRONOV 3.85% PROKHOROV 7.98%

PUTIN 63.60% ZYUGANOV 17.18%

出所：RF Central Election Commission HP

Fig13 Presidential election results

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From Russia's Duma to Presidential Elections

last year to 6.1 percent, its lowest level since Soviet Foreign policies are likely to be continued in times. He promised to reduce corruption, especially in accordance with established guidelines, but Putin's education and the country's military-industrial complex, personal style and preferences may add more but gave little indication on how this would be done. assertiveness. This might be more evident in Russia's Still, perhaps no fundamental changes happen in relations in former Soviet space. overall policy direction of the new Putin presidency.

3. Conclusion

The presidential election of March 4, 2012 in Russia In his turn, Russian president-elect Vladimir Putin followed the parliamentary election in December in praised his government's achievements over the last which Mr. Putin's ruling United Russia party received four years while calling for political unity after 49.5 percent of the vote – down from 64 percent four presidential elections that took place amid the country's years ago. It kept United Russia party in power in the largest anti-Kremlin protests since Soviet times. "The lower house, called the Duma, with 238 of the 450 country has gone through a tense period of seats but also triggered major protests over allegations parliamentary and presidential elections, and even now, of vote rigging and ballot stuffing. Putin dismissed calls the echoes of heightened emotions and political battles for a review, but the outgoing president Dmitry can still be heard," Putin said. "But the logic of a Medvedev announced political reforms in the wake of mature democracy dictates that once elections are large demonstrations. over, cooperation begins." He proposed that Russia returned to direct election Addressing Russia's lower house of parliament for of regional governors, simplify the registration of the last time as prime minister, Putin also promised to political parties and presidential candidates, establish lift Russia into the ranks of the world's five largest new editorially independent public TV channel and economies in terms of purchasing power parity by called for lifting of many of the political restrictions 2015, while cutting corruption and improving the imposed in the past several years by Putin. investment climate.

＜注・解説＞＊1 ：Dr. Elshan Alekberov, Washington-based consultant and analyst, made a large contribution to this report ＊2 ：Constitution of the Russian Federation, Article 102 ＊3 ：RIA Novosti, 7 October 2011. ＊4 ：Federal law of 11 July 2001 № 95-FZ“On political parties.” http://www.legis.ru/misc/doc/2727/ ＊5 ：“Constitutional Law of Russia,” authors Katkov D.B. and Korchigo E.V., 1999, a reference book for law students learning“Constitutional Law.” Unofficial translation. ＊6 ：ITAR TASS, 21 December 2011 ＊7 ：Resolution of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of 22 January 1998 N 2134-II GD“On Regulations of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation (with changes and amendments).” ＊8 ：Resolution of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of 22 January 1998 N 2134-II GD“On Regulations of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation (with changes and amendments),” Article 22.2

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アナリシス

＊9 ：Resolution of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of 22 January 1998 N 2134-II GD“On Regulations of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation (with changes and amendments),” Article 23.1.a. ＊10：Interfax, 21 December 2011. ＊11：Resolution of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of 22 January 1998 N 2134-II GD“On Regulations of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation (with changes and amendments),” Article 30. ＊12：“Constitutional Law of Russia,” authors Katkov D.B. and Korchigo E.V., 1999, a reference book for law students learning“Constitutional Law.” Unofficial translation. ＊13：Resolution of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of 22 January 1998 N 2134-II GD“On Regulations of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation (with changes and amendments).” ＊14：Resolution of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of 22 January 1998 N 2134-II GD“On Regulations of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation (with changes and amendments).”Article 18. ＊15：Federal Law of 08.05.94 3-FZ (as amended from 21.11.2011) on“Status of a member of the Federation Council and status of a member of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.” ＊16：Committee on Energy of the State Duma, Issues related to jurisdiction of the Committee, article 1 and 2. Adopted on 14 may 2008, protocol #8. http://www.komitet2-13.km.duma.gov.ru/site.xp/054052.html ＊17：Committee on natural resources, nature use and ecology of the State Duma, Issues related to the Jurisdiction of the Committee, article 6.1. http://www.komitet2-21.km.duma.gov.ru/site.xp/050054.html ＊18：Committee on natural resources, nature use and ecology of the State Duma, Issues related to the Jurisdiction of the Committee, article 6.3, 6.4, 6.5. http://www.komitet2-21.km.duma.gov.ru/site.xp/050054.html ＊19：Committee on Transport of the State Duma. Issues related to the Jurisdiction of the Committee. http://www. komitet2-14.km.duma.gov.ru/site.xp/054052.html ＊20：Committee on Property of the State Duma, Issues Related to Jurisdiction of the Committee, Article 4, 6, 9. http:// www.komitet2-5.km.duma.gov.ru/site.xp/050054.html ＊21：The Constitution of the Russian Federation, Article 8, http://eng.constitution.kremlin.ru ＊22：Source: US Department of State, Country Profile: Japan http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/4142.htm ＊23：Library of Congress Country Studies -- Japan ＊24：Federal law of 11 July 2001 № 95-FZ“On political parties.” http://www.legis.ru/misc/doc/2727/ ＊25：Federal Law of 10 January 2003 N 19-FZ“On elections of the President of the Russian Federation (with changes and additions), http://base.garant.ru/185413/5/#500

執筆者紹介

Natalia Medvedeva（ナターリャメドヴェージェヴァ）ロシア連邦モスクワ市生まれ。 Moscow State Linguistic University, Degree in Linguistics & Translation Professional （モスクワ国立言語大学、言語学・通訳学部） Russian State University of Management, Degree in Economics （ロシア国立経営大学、経済学） 1993年よりUNIDO（国際連合工業開発機関）モスクワセンター、金融機関勤務の後、1998年より石油公団モスクワ事務所で採用、現在に至る。現在ロシア／CIS諸国の上流産業および政治経済に関する動向の発信、JOGMECが推進する東シベリア開発プロジェクトに関連する上流鉱区公開に関する情報収集に携わる。

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