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Dealing with the "New" Russia

Dealing with the "New" Russia

Researcher Published by CQ Press, a division of Congressional Quarterly Inc. CQ www.cqresearcher.com Dealing With the “New” Will U.S.-Russian relations improve under Medvedev?

inston Churchill once famously called Russia “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” Viewed from Washington, or any

Western capital, Churchill’s observation still The election of , right, as Russia’s new president and his appointment of former ringsW true in today’s post-Soviet era. On May 7, Dmitry Medvedev President as prime minister raise two intriguing questions: How will they share power, and what kind of relationship will they develop became Russia’s third president. But no one knows how much clout with the incoming American president? he’ll exercise, given that he appointed his powerful predecessor,

Vladimir Putin, as prime minister, a post that until now has been I only marginal. Medvedev vows to fight corruption, strengthen the N THIS REPORT judicial system and reduce the vast country’s bloated, entrenched S THE ISSUES ...... 483 I bureaucracy, but so far his power base remains a mystery, as BACKGROUND ...... 490 D does his future relationship with Putin. Also a mystery: who the CHRONOLOGY ...... 491 E next U.S. president will be and how he will deal with the CURRENT SITUATION ...... 496 Kremlin’s new power-sharing arrangement. AT ISSUE ...... 497 OUTLOOK ...... 498 BIBLIOGRAPHY ...... 502 CQ Researcher • June 6, 2008 • www.cqresearcher.com Volume 18, Number 21 • Pages 481-504 THE NEXT STEP ...... 503

RECIPIENT OF SOCIETY OF PROFESSIONAL JOURNALISTS AWARD FOR EXCELLENCE AMERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION SILVER GAVEL AWARD DEALING WITH THE “NEW” RUSSIA CQ Researcher

June 6, 2008 THE ISSUES SIDEBARS AND GRAPHICS Volume 18, Number 21

• Can Medvedev be more The World’s Largest Country MANAGING EDITOR: Thomas J. Colin 483 than a surrogate for Putin? 484 Russia covers one-eighth of [email protected] • Are the West and Russia the world’s land area. ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITOR: Kathy Koch heading for a new Cold War? [email protected] Europe Depends on Russian • Does Putin have legiti- 485 Natural Gas ASSOCIATE EDITOR: Kenneth Jost mate grievances with the Russia’s biggest customer is STAFF WRITERS: Thomas J. Billitteri, Bush administration? Ukraine. Marcia Clemmitt, Peter Katel BACKGROUND CONTRIBUTING WRITERS: Rachel S. Cox, Out of the Shadows Steps Sarah Glazer, Alan Greenblatt, 487 Russia’s New President Barbara Mantel, Patrick Marshall, Authoritarian Terror Dmitry Medvedev is said to Tom Price, Jennifer Weeks 490 Kremlin leaders after the idolize Putin. Bolshevik Revolution in DESIGN/PRODUCTION EDITOR: Olu B. Davis 1917 were as autocratic as Russia Holds Quarter of ASSISTANT EDITOR: Darrell Dela Rosa the czars. 488 World Gas Reserves Its share of crude reserves is EDITORIAL INTERN: Kristina Ryan 493 Brinkmanship also large. Cold War confrontations Chronology included the Berlin Airlift 491 Key events since 1917. and Cuban Missile Crisis. Russia Swimming in Profits A Division of Reagan Talks Tough 492 From Energy Exports SAGE Publications 493 In 1980, Jimmy Carter lost But need seen for diversifica- the presidency to Ronald tion of economy. PRESIDENT AND PUBLISHER: Reagan, who called the John A. Jenkins “the evil Journalists’ Murders DIRECTOR, REFERENCE PUBLISHING: 494 Blamed on Putin’s Alix Buffon Vance empire.” Government Victims were critics of DIRECTOR, ONLINE PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT: Putin’s Rise Chechnya war, corruption. Jennifer Q. Ryan 495 On his election in 2000, the former KGB officer spoke Copyright © 2008 CQ Press, a division of SAGE Pub- At Issue lications. SAGE reserves all copyright and other rights of furthering democracy. 497 Is Western-style democracy possible in Russia? herein, unless previously specified in writing. No part of this publication may be reproduced electronical- CURRENT SITUATION ly or otherwise, without prior written permission. Un- OR URTHER ESEARCH authorized reproduction or transmission of SAGE copy- F F R righted material is a violation of federal law carrying Russian Discontent civil fines of up to $100,000. 496 NATO agreed to block entry 501 For More Information by and Ukraine. Organizations to contact. CQ Press is a registered trademark of Congressional Quarterly Inc. Bibliography “Strategic Framework” 502 Selected sources used. CQ Researcher (ISSN 1056-2036) is printed on acid- 498 Bush and Putin forged a free paper. Published weekly, except; (March wk. 4) cooperation agreement. The Next Step (May wk. 3) (July wk. 1) (July wk. 2) (Aug. wk. 2) 503 Additional articles. (Aug. wk. 3) (Nov. wk. 4) and (Dec. wk. 4), by CQ Press, a division of SAGE Publications. Annual full-ser- OUTLOOK Citing CQ Researcher vice subscriptions start at $803. For pricing, call 1- 503 Sample bibliography formats. 800-834-9020, ext. 1906. To purchase a CQ Researcher Who Will Run Russia? report in print or electronic format (PDF), visit www.cq- 498 Will Medvedev be his press.com or call 866-427-7737. Single reports start at own man? $15. Bulk purchase discounts and electronic-rights li- censing are also available. Periodicals postage paid at Washington, D.C., and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to CQ Research- Cover: AFP/Getty Images/Yuri Kadobnov er, 2300 N St., N.W., Suite 800, Washington, DC 20037.

482 CQ Researcher Dealing With the “New” Russia BY ROLAND FLAMINI

“The Russian political tra- dition is to have one single THE ISSUES leader — one czar,” Lukyanov hen Russian vot- observes. “Now we will get ers went to the two centers of power, which W polls to elect a is extremely unusual. If any- new president on March 2, one tells you he knows how the outcome was hardly in the system is going to work, doubt. Deputy Prime Minis- don’t believe it.” ter Dmitry Medvedev, 42, is Meanwhile, with the U.S. both genuinely popular and presidential election looming, had been picked by the time is running out for any sig- even more popular incum- nificant improvement in the U.S.- bent, President Vladimir Russian tension that has de- Vladimirovich Putin. Indeed, veloped during the Bush Medvedev garnered 72 per- administration. Still, President cent of the votes. 1 “It was George W. Bush telephoned not really an election, it was Medvedev on March 4 to ex- an appointment,” observed press the hope — in the words Fraser Cameron, director of of a Medvedev spokesperson the ’s Russ- — that “the two [leaders] can ian Center, expressing a wide- establish a close working rela- spread Western view. 2 tionship that will help them deal Medvedev was inaugurated with important world issues.” 6 AFP/Getty Images/Luke Frazza on May 7 and immediately Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and U.S. A working relationship is nominated Putin — barred President George W. Bush held a lighthearted press what Bush no longer seems by the constitution from conference in November 2001 at Crawford High School to have with Putin. In 2001, in Texas after a three-day summit at Bush’s ranch. At serving a third term — as the time, Bush said he looked Putin in the eye and saw a President Bush said he looked prime minister at the head man who was “straightforward and trustworthy.” But Putin in the eye and saw a of his party the good working relationship they seemed to be man who was “straightforward government. developing has since deteriorated. and trustworthy.” But it has Medvedev has defined been downhill from there. 7 Russia’s new leadership structure as “a shadow as a trusted deputy, so the “In 2001 the Russians thought they single team” that would “be able to most likely scenario seems to be that were entering into a new strategic al- solve the most difficult and large-scale Putin will continue to dominate the liance [with the United States] against tasks.” 3 Political commentators in government. If public opinion polls global , “says Michael McFaul, are calling the partnership a are to be believed, this sits well with a senior associate at the Carnegie En- diarchy, or a government by two joint the majority of Russians. According to dowment for International Peace in leaders. 4 But finding the right label surveys, more than 80 percent expect Washington, D.C. When the Bush ad- is a lot easier than figuring out how Putin to continue as chief guide and ministration sought to establish mili- the power-sharing arrangement will arbiter of the nation’s fate. More than tary bases in Uzbekistan and other for- work in practice. 50 percent would be happy to make mer Soviet satellites in Central Asia to Since the fall of the Soviet Union him president for life. 5 support a U.S. attack on al Qaeda in in 1991, the position of prime minis- Yet Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the Afghanistan, Putin agreed. But when ter has been largely administrative and Moscow-based Russia in Global Af- Bush turned on Iraq, Putin strongly no threat to the presidency, but Putin fairs magazine, says things may not opposed the invasion. has already indicated that he will broad- be that clear-cut. Two-headed power Relations between Washington and en its political scope. is without precedent in Russia — the Kremlin continued to worsen, with Medvedev, on the other hand, has never mind that, ironically, the dou- each side blaming the other for the de- never held elected office and has ble-headed eagle was for centuries the terioration and some experts warning spent most of his career in Putin’s Russian imperial symbol. Continued on p. 485

Available online: www.cqresearcher.com June 6, 2008 483 DEALING WITH THE “NEW” RUSSIA

The World’s Largest Country At 6.6 million square miles, Russia is by far the world’s largest country, covering about one-eighth of Earth’s land area. Its 141 million people make it the ninth-largest in population. The breakup of the Soviet Union in December 1991 led to the independence of Russia and 14 other republics. Today the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) consists of Russia and 11 former Soviet Republics: Azerbaijan, , Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, , Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine. The three Baltic states — Lithuania, and Estonia — are in the European Union and NATO.

Zemlya

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Nordvik V YMSKIY N K A FINLAND E K I H R R . A A N Dikson C I A K H E R S K O M S U H O G S H K ESTONIA L O U T I LATVIA Arkhangel’sk Y H CZECH. R e L A Magadan A REP. Amderma CENTRAL n N T St Petersburg S E T a K E B SIBERIAN I Y K H R K

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r Salekhard y D CROATIA o A Yakutsk REP. S G ’ ever n aya h ' Okhotsk HUNGARY V D v in c T b U o a N Pe O H lg i Chernobyl N z Z h n D a y a a UKRAINE Moscow U y a Tu n g u s k Olekminsk . Kiyev R Kirov RUSSIA ALDANSKOYE O H ROMANIA K Lensk NAGOR'YE Nizhniy Novgorod M Khanty-Mansiysk MOLDOVA n Perm Ye T Ob' E o a B T Nizhniy Tagil a n E D m L R t a obol a S H a is T K K T A N OVOY r A n s Syzran a e k Tobol’sk e n g a r i Samara A L y R S y Saratov a . P R I r lg U o H K K l Chelyabinsk Am i Vo H B v l Volgograd Magnitogorsk Y a U Y O c Rostov-na-Donu r Tomsk Bratsk V ur

k a T l S Omsk O e C N E a A Orsk im O JAPAN

U h Novosibirsk L A C Irty

s Irkutsk Lake B L A Astrakhan I

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U s Y TURKEY ' S Groznyy h

M KAZAKHSTAN Ye n i s e y Ulan-Ude T Caspian S . GEORGIA S Karaganda M T . N Sea of Sea Semipalatinsk Y A A Japan ARMENIA Aral S MONGOLIA AZERBAIJAN Sea UZBEKISTAN Russia at a Glance Area: 6.6 million sq. miles. Russia is the world’s largest country, nearly twice the size of the U.S. Population: 140.7 million (July 2008 est.), less than half the U.S. population. Population growth: Declining 0.47% (2008 est.) Infant mortality: 10.81 deaths per 1,000 births Labor force: 75.1 million (November 2007 est.) Unemployment rate: 5.9% (November 2007 est.) Religion: Russian Orthodox (Christian) 75%, Muslim 19%, other Christians 6% (2006 est.) Languages: Russian, in addition to many minority languages recognized in the constituent republics and autonomous areas. Government: The most powerful political leader is the president, who is elected by popular vote. The bicameral Federal Assembly, made up of the Federation Council, consists of two representatives from each of Russia’s territorial units, and the , which fills half of its seats from single-member constituencies and half by proportional representation from party lists. The chair of the government or prime minister is the second-highest political official, appointed by the president. The Federation Council, the , appoints the for-life members of the Judicial branch, including the Constitutional Court, Supreme Court and Supreme Arbitration Court. Economy: The gross domestic product was $2.08 trillion in 2007, with about 15.8% of the population living below the poverty line. Russia’s major oil and natural gas exports helped it end its ninth-straight year of growth, averaging 7% annually since the financial crisis of 1998. Over the last six years, personal incomes have increased 12% per year. The country’s main sources of revenues are from oil, natural gas, metals and timber. Manufacturing is virtually nonexistent. Communications hardware: There are 40.1 million telephone landlines, 150 million mobile phones and 2.8 million Internet hosts serving 25.6 million users.

Sources: Political Handbook of the World, 2008, CQ Press, 2008; The World Factbook, Central Intelligence Agency, 2008

484 CQ Researcher Continued from p. 483 that further worsening could lead to a Europe Depends on Russian Natural Gas new Cold War. “Now, relations are the Russian natural gas exports account for a high percentage of the worst in 20 years,” says McFaul. “The natural gas used in many neighboring countries. Russia’s biggest central belief of Russian foreign poli- cy is: If it’s bad for the United States, energy customer by far is Ukraine, which received more than it’s good for Russia.” 2.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in 2007, or 66 percent of its The contours of U.S.-Russian differ- domestic consumption. Germany was the largest Western European ences have emerged in disagreements recipient, importing nearly 1.4 trillion cubic feet, or more than a over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, U.S. sup- third of the nation’s supply. port for Kosovo’s independence, efforts by Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO Biggest Recipients of Percentage of and construction of gas and oil pipelines Domestic Russian Natural Gas, 2007 Consumption (2006) in the region. Moreover, Bush and top administration officials have lectured Ukraine 2,240 66% Putin on human rights violations by a presidency “based on the uncontested Germany 1,378 36% primacy of the top executive, with con- Turkey 827 64% trolled politics and a growing intoler- ance towards public dissent, let alone Belarus 763 98% political autonomy,” as Washington Post 742 25% columnist Masha Lipman wrote from Moscow early this spring. 8 346 20% Some Russian analysts advance the Czech Republic 247 79% argument that Putin’s autocratic rule — also known as “Putinism” or “man- Poland 247 47% aged democracy” — was necessary to Baltic states* 243 78% stabilize the country. Says Veronika Krasheninnikova, director of U.S. op- Hungary 226 54% erations for the Council for Trade and Slovakia 223 100% Economic Cooperation and author of a recent book (in Russian) on U.S.- Austria 191 74% Russian relations. “Putin is putting order 166 100% where there was chaos: The collapse Finland of the Soviet Union had destroyed the 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 state in every function.” (in billions of cubic feet) Meanwhile, Putin charges that the Bush * Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania administration has aggressively moved to encircle Russia with military bases, install Source: Energy Information Administration missiles on its borders, topple allied regimes in Central Asia and incite polit- tect the West against possible nuclear tioning as one unit. The missile sys- ical upheaval in Moscow through U.S.- attack from Iran or North Korea. tem also will trigger “a new arms backed pro-democracy groups. To remove legal obstacles to the race,” Putin adds, since it will force Arguably the most contentious sin- system, the Bush administration in 2002 Russia to update its own antiquated gle issue between Washington and the withdrew from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic missile network. 9 Kremlin is the Bush administration’s Missile Treaty (ABM), which prohibit- Some blame unrealistic expectations plan to install an anti-missile defense ed missile defense systems in the re- on both sides for the existing tensions. system in Eastern Europe with the gion. Putin calls U.S. concerns over After the Soviet Union collapsed, Zbig- long-range missile interceptors de- Iran overblown and complains that the niew Brzezinski, a former White House ployed in Poland and a tracking radar proposed missile shield “will work au- national security adviser, said, “There system in the Czech Republic. Bush tomatically with the entire nuclear ca- was too much euphoria; too much in- says the missiles are needed to pro- pability of the United States” func- clination to declare that Russia was a

Available online: www.cqresearcher.com June 6, 2008 485 DEALING WITH THE “NEW” RUSSIA democracy; and too much pretension. ian expansionism. French President ates a real factor of instability. But Putin . . . All of that has created ambiguity expressed the gener- . . . chooses the person with minimal when clarity is needed.” 10 al concern — increasingly reflected in potential damage for him.” 17 The United States has been disap- the polls — that “Russia is imposing Still, Medvedev may be helped by pointed that the hoped-for democracy its return on the world scene by play- the fact that Russia’s political elite “is has failed to take root in Russia after ing its assets, notably oil and gas, with beginning to understand that political the fall of communism. For their part, a certain brutality.” 13 He was refer- stability based on personal popularity the Russians had expected more from ring to Putin’s use of Europe’s de- is fragile,” comments Global Affairs the United States in terms of support. pendence on Russian energy supplies editor Lukyanov. After all, Putin him- Instead, a weakened Moscow was (some 36 percent in the case of Ger- self was against tampering with the pressed into signing arms-control agree- many) to pressure Europe into sup- constitution to secure a third presi- ments. Furthermore, by welcoming for- porting Moscow’s positions. 14 dential term even though such a move mer Soviet Eastern Europe and the Baltic As policy experts gauge relations would have had popular support. And states into NATO, the Atlantic alliance between Russia and the United States, Medvedev talks of the importance of planted itself right on Mother Russia’s here are some of the questions they strengthening the institutions. front porch — a move that Putin, not are asking: “They [the elite] understand that to surprisingly, saw as a serious threat. preserve the spirit of Putinism they have But when that happened, Russia Can Medvedev be more than a to transform the system,” says Lukyanov. was weak and poor, and with its econ- surrogate for Putin? In other words, the somewhat cyn- omy in free fall, the country was too Calling the Medvedev-Putin partner- ically termed “managed democracy” eager to integrate itself into the West ship a power-sharing arrangement may established by Putin — based on firm to object too strenuously. Russia’s lat- be naive. In a typical comment, Russ- control of all primary levers of power est prosperity has brought a marked ian political analyst Lilia Shevtsova wrote and influence, including the internal change in attitude. Thanks to rising in the London Daily Telegraph: “In the security forces, mass media and ex- world energy prices, revenues from Putin-Medvedev tango, Prime Minister panded state monopolies — can sur- Russia’s vast natural gas and crude oil Putin is going to be the lead dancer. vive only by evolving from its current reserves have contributed significant- President Medvedev is left with a some- cult of personality. ly to putting Russia back on its feet what humiliating role.” 15 But a month after Medvedev was — rich, resentful and nationalistic and Medvedev himself knows that the sworn in there is still ambiguity about seeking to regain its great-power sta- new diarchy will draw fire from skep- who is really in charge. In the division tus. 11 (After the collapse of the So- tics. “I am sure that there are some of labor, “foreign policy is the respon- viet Union, Russian oil production fell people who are going to interpret this sibility of the presidency and can’t be about 50 percent, largely because of arrangement in their own way, and moved to the prime minister’s office a lack of much-needed investments look for holes in it. . . . We will man- because that would be in violation of and poor management. The situation age,” he said in an interview shortly the Russian constitution,” Lukyanov says. remained unchanged during Russia’s after his election. 16 Even so, in June Russia’s ambassador financial crisis in the 1990s. The dra- Putin brought the young St. Peters- to Washington, , was re- matic turnaround came in 1999, after burg law professor to Moscow in 1999 called to Moscow to head Prime Min- two new pipelines were completed, to serve as a Kremlin deputy chief of ister Putin’s foreign policy team, a the ruble was devalued, making Russ- staff when he was prime minister under move the Moscow Times said, “effec- ian oil and gas cheap, and world en- President . Later, Putin made tively snatched away an area of au- ergy prices spiked, triggering new for- Medvedev his presidential chief of staff. thority held by President Dmitry eign investments.) 12 Medvedev was also chairman of Medvedev and the Kremlin adminis- Grateful Russians, their pride restored, , the world’s largest producer tration.” , however, also credit Putin with the country’s resur- of natural gas, but it is widely believed quoted a government official as saying gence and its consistent 7 percent an- that Putin called the shots. Ushakov’s appointment did not upset nual growth rate, and the Russians gave Having spent almost a decade doing the balance of power. The news about him great latitude to exercise his Putin’s bidding, Medvedev “is chemi- Ushakov emerged as Putin concluded “tsarist” style, which — unlike democ- cally conditioned to obey Mr. Putin,” a high-profile visit to Paris that was de- racy — does have its roots in Russia. argued Andrei A. Piontkovsky, a polit- scribed as “presidential,” including din- Caught in the middle, as usual, is ical commentator and Putin critic. “This ner with President Sarkozy, a rare honor Europe, the historic battlefield of Russ- artificial construction of two czars cre- for a visiting foreign prime minister. 18

486 CQ Researcher Out of the Shadows Steps Russia’s New President Dmitry Medvedev is said to idolize Putin, his longtime mentor.

ladimir Putin, a one-time officer in the Soviet intelli- he gradually replaced its independent-minded executives with gence service, the KGB, has a reputation for sur- a management more loyal to the government. Throughout his V rounding himself with other former agents. In that re- rise, Medvedev quietly operated in the shadow of his mentor, spect, Putin’s choice to succeed him as president, Dmitry whom many said he treated as a father figure. But Medvedev, differs fundamentally from his mentor: He does not magazine reports that when German Chancellor have an intelligence background. But met him following his election, she sized the soft-spoken 42-year-old lawyer him up as — in the magazine’s words — Putin’s loyal collaborator for 17 — “a seasoned, ambitious apparatchik years — does share an important trait who knows what he wants.” 4 with other members of the Putin team. Medvedev is energetic, good-natured He belongs to what the Financial and said to be unfailingly polite, with a Times recently called “the new clan taste for trendy clothes and American of power brokers” — officials who rock music. On the campaign trail, he were members of Putin’s foreign re- made speeches about reducing taxes and lations committee when Putin was slashing red tape while freeing the media deputy mayor of St. Petersburg. 1 and boosting the independence of the Medvedev had a respectable child- court system. But analysts point out that hood in an intellectual family. His his background shows little promise of father was a professor at Leningrad independent action. As the Financial Times Technical Institute, and his mother a put it, “His record as one of Mr. Putin’s teacher. He studied law in Leningrad, most senior officials, as the president rolled and by the late 1980s was head of back many of those freedoms, throws the law faculty of Leningrad (now these pledges into doubt.” 5 St. Petersburg) State University, at the same time he was moonlighting as AFP/Getty Images/Natalia Kolesnikova 1 Caroline Belton, “Anointed enigma: the quiet Medvedev addresses students in Beijing on a legal adviser to city hall, where he rise of a dedicated Dmitry Medvedev,” FT.com, May 24, 2008. Some Russia-watchers saw Feb. 28, 2008, www.ft.com/cms/s/0/72ede4b6- first met Putin. In 1991, when Putin his visit to as significant, given e626-11dc-8398-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=7ee6a12e- became deputy mayor, Medvedev tension between Moscow and the U.S. 7d74-11dc-9f47-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1. went to work full time as legal ad- 2 Matthias Schepp, “Don’t Get Too Excited About 2 Medvedev,” Der Spiegel, March 3, 2008, viser to the foreign relations committee. www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,540313,00.html. When Putin went to the Kremlin as President Boris Yeltsin’s 3 Owen Matthews, “From a Mouse to a Tsar,” Newsweek, March 3, 2008, prime minister, Medvedev followed, first as Putin’s deputy chief www.newsweek.com/id/114679/page/3. of staff and three years later as chief of staff. 3 Putin also ap- 4 Schepp, op. cit. 5 pointed him chairman of natural gas producer Gazprom, where Belton, op. cit.

Lukyanov points out that national se- But will the complicated arrange- but he and others fully expect a curity is a Kremlin issue, and for Putin ment survive? Lukyanov concludes it power struggle “between the teams to assume its direction “would be a will last “for a period of months, if around them.” 20 contradiction of the way it has been not years, but then Russian tradition Of course, Putin is running the greater handled in the past,” although, as prime will prevail, and one man will emerge risk — in at least two respects. For minister Putin remains a member of the as the ruler. I cannot imagine a situ- one thing, history is full of stories of presidential Security Council. Medvedev ation in which Medvedev fires Putin, intended surrogates who turned on their may have been sending his mentor a but Putin could resign, saying my task benefactors. For another, as political message last week when he chaired his is done — I can retire.” analyst Shevtsova pointed out, “As first meeting of the Security Council Aleksei Makarkin, an analyst at the Putin undermines Medvedev’s influence, while the prime minister was out of Center for Political Technologies in he also undermines the presidency. town. Russian media observed that it Moscow, told Putin, it seems, is busy dismantling his was the first meeting of the council he does not foresee any serious con- major legacy — presidential hyper- Putin had missed in eight years. 19 tradictions between the two leaders, power.”

Available online: www.cqresearcher.com June 6, 2008 487 DEALING WITH THE “NEW” RUSSIA

Meanwhile, the Russian media Russia Holds Quarter of World’s Gas Reserves have yet to decide on whom to lav- ish the most attention, and “a very Russia holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves — nearly pronounced balance” is being ob- 1.7 quadrillion cubic feet, or more than a quarter of the total. Its served in TV coverage of the two share of global crude oil reserves is the eighth-largest. leaders, according to a media analyst in Moscow. As for the general pub- lic, a survey on May 17 and 18 found Global Natural Gas Reserves Rest of (in cubic feet) that 1 in 10 Russians thinks that Putin world 26.2% is still the country’s president. 22 Venezuela 2.7% (1.62 quadrillion (166.26 trillion cu. ft.) cu. ft.) Russia Nigeria 3.0% 27.2% Are the West and Russia heading (183.99 trillion cu. ft) (1.68 quadrillion for a new Cold War? United States 3.4% cu. ft.) The current, tense relations be- (211.09 trillion cu. ft.) Iran tween the United States and Russia United Arab Emirates 3.5% 15.3% have stirred memories of the half- (214.40 trillion cu. ft.) (948.20 century face-off between the West Saudi Arabia 4.1% trillion and the Soviet Union after World War (253.11 trillion cu. ft.) cu. ft.) II. Some commentators warn the sit- Qatar 14.7% uation today has the makings of a (905.30 trillion cu. ft.) ; a few believe we are already there. Talk of a new Cold War increased Saudi Crude Oil Reserves after President Putin, speaking at a Arabia 20% (in billions of barrels) conference in Munich, Germany, ac- (266.75) Canada 13.4% cused the United States of abusing its (178.59 billion barrels) power and trying to establish a “uni- Rest of polar” world, which he defined as world 21.3% Iran 10.4% (138.40) “one, single center of power, one, sin- (371.16) gle center of force. . . . This is the Iraq 8.6% world of one master.” The rhetoric “re- (115.00) minds [us of] Cold War times,” com- Kuwait 7.8% mented Sergei Rogov, director of the (104.00) U.S.A.-Canada Institute at the Russian Venezuela 6.5% Academy of Sciences, in the online Russia 4.5% (87.04) daily Kommersant. 23 (60.00) President Bush, Rogov wrote re- United Arab Emirates 7.3% cently, wants it both ways. He is turn- (97.80) ing NATO into the dominant military political force in Europe by expand- * Percentages do not total 100 due to rounding. ing the alliance into post-Soviet terri- Source: Energy Information Administration tory, yet at the same time “would like to avoid a breach with Russia and a The low-key election campaign ine the Great. “Freedom does not new Cold War.” Democratic Sen. Joseph revealed little of Medvedev’s laid- mean chaos, but respect for the Biden of Delaware, chairman of the back personality and still less of his country’s laws.” 21 Senate Foreign Relations Committee, policies. But in his one main cam- If Medvedev decides to free himself is among those who believe “relations paign speech, analysts found traces from the embrace of his mentor, analysts between the United States and Russia of a more liberal approach than his say, liberal policies could help him to es- are at their lowest ebb since the end predecessor’s. “Freedom is the soul tablish his own separate identity. But of the Cold War.” He calls for a “new of all things, and without it all is would he risk a breakup? “He may not [U.S.] approach” to managing relations as if dead,” he said, quoting Cather- yet know the answer,” wrote Shevtsova. with Moscow. But Biden is also critical

488 CQ Researcher of Kremlin leaders for reverting “to a For Mark Brzezinski, a former Rus- whose friendship was a signal achieve- Cold War, zero-sum mentality in their sia specialist in the Clinton White House ment of [Presidents] Ronald Reagan dealings abroad.” 24 (and, incidentally, son of Zbigniew), and George H. W. Bush,” wrote Pat The components of the Cold War “what exists today is a cold peace” Buchanan, the conservative commen- were two opposed nuclear super- between the United States and Russia. tator and former presidential candi- powers, a propaganda offensive that While Putin rails against the United date. “And one of the foreign policy never let up and a series of proxy States, the Bush administration, dis- imperatives of this nation is for states- wars in different parts of the world, tracted by Iraq, has if anything been manship to repair the damage.” 27 with the superpowers or their surro- “rather passive” in not challenging some Buchanan lists a number of by-now- gates backing the warring sides. But of Putin’s actions, Brzezinski says. For familiar actions taken by the George the perception of an even balance of example, he says, “Bush has been silent W. Bush administration (and by the forces between East and West, and the about Putin’s rollback of democracy.” Clinton administration before that) that fear of starting a nuclear war, pre- In fact, in a rare public comment have angered, and even alarmed, the vented a third world war. about Russia last June, Bush said, “In Russians, including: Today, “there can be no Cold War Russia, reforms that once promised • The Bush administration’s criti- because Russia is in no position to to empower citizens have been de- cism of Putin’s brutal handling of wage either a hot or cold war,” says railed, with troubling implications.” 26 the war in Chechnya, the would- former White House national security But most analysts agree the Bush ad- be separatist, predominantly Mus- adviser Brzezinski. The Russian nuclear ministration has soft-pedaled its criti- lim republic; arsenal is antiquated and badly serviced cism of Putin, even as anti-government • its attacks on Putin’s increasingly — if at all; the Warsaw Pact (the So- media have been intimidated or sup- negative human-rights record; and viet Union’s military response to NATO) pressed — and several journalists even • criticism of apparent attempts by has been dismantled, and Russian ground assassinated, such as Anna Politkovskaya the government to manipulate re- forces are widely judged to have per- — and leading figures like industrialist cent elections, including the formed poorly in Chechnya, Russia’s have been March presidential election. most recent armed conflict. 25 arrested. A Russian monitoring group claimed Perhaps because he is Russian, Glob- Cold War or not, the slowdown there were irregularities in both the De- al Affairs editor Lukyanov sees a in the democratic process is a major cember government elections and the diminution of power on both sides. sticking point for the United States, presidential election. 28 And the Orga- “The Cold War stage in international according to Andrew C. Kuchins, di- nization for Security and Cooperation relations was when everything was rector of the Russia and Eurasian Pro- in Europe refused to oversee both elec- determined by confrontation between gram at the Center for Strategic and tions because of what it called exces- the two superpowers,” he says. “They International Studies in Washington. sive restrictions placed on it by could do what they wanted. But the “For the United States, Russia will Moscow. The group acknowledged, time when Russia and the United never be a very trusted partner until however, that Medvedev would have States could determine world events it more fully embraces Western val- won even in a clean election. is over. The international environment ues and becomes really democratic,” Another major U.S.-Russian contro- is absolutely different. There are other he says. “Until that happens, Russia versy centers on admitting former War- important players — the European will remain in the category of coun- saw Pact members Poland, Hungary Union, China, India.” tries that are partners and allies of and Czechoslovakia into NATO. Putin The Russians, he continues, “are not convenience or necessity. Russia, for says, with some justification, that sup- so insane to believe that they could at least the near term, appears fated port for their admission was a betrayal challenge the United States militarily or to trust nobody and have no gen- of clear but implicit promises made economically, but there is a feeling that uine allies, but only partners of con- by the West in 1990-1991. 29 after the Cold War, when Russia fairly venience and necessity.” In 2004, a second NATO enlarge- disappeared from the international ment added Romania, Bulgaria and — scene, the United States had the op- Does Putin have legitimate griev- over Moscow’s protests — Lithuania, portunity to shape the world into what ances with the Bush administra- Latvia and Estonia. The inclusion of the it wanted, and it failed. So the Rus- tion? Baltic States aroused Putin’s great re- sians see the limits of American power, “One of the historic blunders of this sentment because the Kremlin consid- and it makes Russians arrogant towards administration has been to antagonize ered them, with their significant Russ- the United States.” and alienate Russia, the winning of ian minorities, within Moscow’s sphere

Available online: www.cqresearcher.com June 6, 2008 489 DEALING WITH THE “NEW” RUSSIA of influence. The second NATO ex- siles. But . . . Iran has no missiles pansion, Buchanan wrote, “moved a with a range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilo- U.S.-led military alliance into [Russia’s] meters. In other words, we are being BACKGROUND front yard, and onto [its] side porch.” 30 told that this missile defense system In the Caucasus, Ukraine and Geor- is there to defend against something gia (the birthplace of former Russian that doesn’t exist. Our military experts leader Josef Stalin) also want to join certainly believe that this system af- Authoritarian Terror NATO to protect themselves from a fects the territory of the Russian Fed- bellicose Russia. Zbigniew Brzezinski eration in front of the Ural Mountains. t’s one of the grim ironies of mod- contends if Russia’s former satellites And, of course, we have to respond I ern Russian history that of the 13 35 are running for protective cover in to that.” leaders who preceded Medvedev in NATO, it is Russia’s fault. Russian “nos- After failing for months to get the the Kremlin since the Bolshevik Rev- talgia for an imperial status creates Russians to agree to the missile project, olution in 1917, most had as much sustained and extensive hostility with the Bush administration in April changed power as the autocratic czars.* The all of its neighbors. . . . Russia’s in- tactics, trying to interest Moscow in a Union of Soviet Socialist Republics fluence probably would be greater if sweeping American offer to participate (USSR) was, as historian Robert Ser- Putin had had the intelligence to use in existing NATO and U.S. missile de- vice has noted, a “highly centralized, the Moscow events to promote a gen- fenses, and in the development of fu- one-party dictatorship” that directed a uine reconciliation, instead of follow- ture defense technology. The Russians predominantly state-owned economy ing . . . a kind of not-very-intelligent, are warily examining the proposal. and imposed “severe restrictions on nostalgic policy of rehabilitating par- Bush and Putin want to finish their national, religious and cultural self- tially Stalinism and certainly rehabili- respective presidencies “in the soft glow expression.” 38 And, democracy in the 31 tating imperial nostalgia.” of mutual legacy-burnishing rather than emergent Russian Federation remains When Bush announced that the Unit- the glare of a clash over future NATO a work in progress. ed States was withdrawing unilaterally expansion and U.S. missile deployments,” Lenin started the country on a path from the 29-year-old Anti-Ballistic Mis- wrote Washington Post columnist Jim of industrialization and agricultural col- sile Treaty in 2001, Putin called the with- Hoagland. “They will leave relations be- lectivization. After his death in 1924, 32 drawal “a mistake.” The pullout meant tween the White House and the Krem- communist party official Josef Stalin the Bush administration could launch lin mired in a rare, soggy middle promoted himself as Lenin’s political 36 its plan to put 10 interceptor rockets in ground of extended ambivalence.” heir and gradually outmaneuvered his Poland, with a radar tracking station in But Robert Joseph and J. D. Crouch rivals. Although others held positions 33 the Czech Republic. Bush insists the II, former Bush administration officials equivalent to prime minister, by the late missiles are not directed at Russia but who had worked on the missile- 1920s Stalin was the de facto dictator once in place will form a line of de- deployment project, maintain Putin of the Soviet Union. Stalin speeded up fense against “rogue states” — in other has rejected earlier offers of coopera- industrialization and used brutal meth- words, Iran and North Korea. A skep- tion. “Over five years, the United States ods to enforce agricultural collectiviza- tical Moscow responded by testing new has made proposal after proposal to tion — causing widespread famine and tactical and strategic missiles in May work with Russia’s military and in- an appalling death toll in some regions: 2007, in a situation Putin said was “cer- dustry on missile defense, offering mod- at least 1 million Kazakhs and between tainly growing into a new arms race” est cooperative activities . . . and pro- 5-8 million Ukrainians. 39 in Europe. 34 jects that would be more technically In making his own case, Putin re- and politically challenging,” they wrote, cently pointed out to a group of West- but “each time cooperation has been * The 13 leaders before Medvedev were Vladimir Ilyich Lenin (1917-1924), Aleksei Rykov (1924- ern journalists that, “For the first time deflected or rejected.” 1930), Vyachezlov Molotov (1930-1941), Josef in history — and I want to emphasize Putin’s refusal, they say, “reflects V. Stalin (1941-1953), Georgi M. Malenkov (1953- this — there are elements of the U.S. [Russia’s] increasing assertiveness as a 1955), Nikolai A. Bulganin (1955-1958), Nikita nuclear capability on the European con- major player on the international scene, S. Khrushchev (1958-1964), Leonid I. Brezhnev tinent. It simply changes the whole con- helped by the price of energy exports. (1964-1982), Yuri V. Andropov (1982-1984), figuration of international security.” Moscow is eager to regain great-power Konstantin U. Chernenko (1984-1985), Mikhail Putin said the United States justi- status and thinks the path to success S. Gorbachev (1985-1991), Boris Yeltsin (1991- fies the deployment “by the need to requires painting the United States as 1999) and Vladimir Putin (2000-2008). defend themselves against Iranian mis- the threat.” 37 Continued on p. 493

490 CQ Researcher Chronology

legislature to end opposition to dismantled Russian warheads. . . . Communist Era economic program. . . . Voters Government shuts down Russia’s Russian Revolution eradicates approve new constitution giving last independent TV station. Romanov dynasty and estab- president broader powers. lishes Union of Soviet Socialist 2003 Republics (USSR). 1994 U.S.-led coalition invades Iraq; Yeltsin starts war against separatist Putin calls invasion “big mistake.” October 1917 Chechen republic. . . . First U.S.- Communist regime takes over Russia; Russian space mission is launched. 2004 is first Soviet leader. Putin re-elected; Freedom House 1995 downgrades Russia’s rating to “not 1920s-1950s U.S. and Russia agree to START II. free.” . . . Ukraine’s “Orange Revo- Josef Stalin eventually succeeds lution” ends with election of oppo- Lenin. Millions of peasants and 1997 sition leader Viktor Yushchenko potential dissidents are killed or Russia and NATO agree to cooperate over Russian-backed candidate. . . . imprisoned. . . . After World War on defense issues. Baltic States join NATO. II, Stalin negotiates with allies for control over Eastern Europe. 1999 2005 Yeltsin resigns and designates Bush extols democracy during visits 1950s-1980s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin as to Latvia and Georgia; raises issue U.S. and Soviet Union vie for nu- acting president. Putin re-starts privately with Putin in Moscow. . . . clear dominance and reach a Cold suspended Chechen offensive. Yukos oil company founder Mikhail War standoff. Over Russian objections, Poland, Khodorkovsky is convicted of finan- Hungary and Czech Republic be- cial crimes and sent to prison. 1985 come NATO members. takes power 2006 and initiates political reforms. • Putin hosts G8 summit in St. Peters- burg. . . . Poll shows 57 percent of • Russians see U.S. as “threat to global 2000-Present security.” . . . U.S. aid to Russia to- Improving relations between tals $949 million. 1990s Soviet Union Russia and the U.S. soon sour. fragments into 15 republics. 2007 2000 Putin accuses U.S. of seeking a 1990 Newly elected Putin moves against “uni-polar world,” with itself as U.S. helps ease food shortage. oligarchs and independent media. “one single master.” . . . Bush ad- . . . President Bill Clinton address- ministration asks Poland and Czech 1991 es Russian , discusses Republic to allow deployment of Hard-liners stage unsuccessful August Iran’s nuclear program and Chech- anti-missile system to prevent nu- coup against Gorbachev, triggering nya with Putin. clear attack by “rogue states.” dissolution of USSR. 2001 2008 1992 After Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on NATO summit in Bucharest, Roma- Russian President Boris Yeltsin New York and the Pentagon, nia, supports Bush anti-missile launches economic reforms. . . . Putin allows U.S. to use bases in plan but shelves NATO member- United States commits $24 billion Central Asia to launch war in ship for Georgia and Ukraine due in aid. . . . Yeltsin and Bush sign Afghanistan. . . . President George to Kremlin opposition. . . . Putin Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty W. Bush and Putin meet for first protégé Dmitry Medvedev is elect- (START). time in Crawford, Texas. ed president in March. . . . Bush and Putin meet for the last time 1993 2002 as presidents, easing tension, but Yeltsin orders attack on Russian United States buys uranium from leaving missile issue unresolved.

Available online: www.cqresearcher.com June 6, 2008 491 DEALING WITH THE “NEW” RUSSIA

Russia Swimming in Profits From Energy Exports But need seen for diversification of economy.

n Jan. 7, 2007, Russian oil suddenly stopped flowing But diversification needs entrepreneurs, and Russia was going to Germany and other European customers, without in the opposite direction, towards greater state control. Nowhere O any warning from Moscow. Though the details are was that more evident than in the energy sector. Under President unclear, either Russia or Belarus had shut off the so-called Boris Yeltsin, Russia’s so-called oligarchs had become fantastically “Friendship” pipeline because of a pricing dispute. But the end rich by acquiring state-owned energy companies and other busi- result was the same: suspension of crude deliveries to points nesses at bargain prices. Putin leveraged tax and environmental further down the line including Poland and Germany. 1 laws to get the energy sector back under state control. The cutoff, though brief, underscored Europe’s dependence In 2004, Russia’s largest private corporation, Yukos, was forced on Russia for its oil and gas supplies. Europe imports a quarter into bankruptcy by a flood of back-tax claims, and its assets were of its natural gas and 30 percent of its crude oil from Russia. 2 taken over by the state. 8 A year later, Yukos’ owner, billionaire Indeed, Russia’s energy trump card is natural gas. It controls Mikhail Khodorkovsky, was sentenced to eight years at hard labor over a quarter of the world’s natural gas reserves — more than for fraud and tax evasion. 9 The $40 billion company’s struggle any other country. 3 with the Putin government over Some politicians in Eu- what Yukos said were trumped- rope’s capitals worry that their up charges came to symbolize energy dependence makes the bare-knuckled rules of Russ- them vulnerable to Kremlin ian capitalism. Yukos’ oil opera- pressure, but others argue tions were taken over by Ros- that energy exports account neft, and in 2006 Russia forced for a large part of Russia’s foreign corporations to reduce newfound prosperity, so why their stakes in energy production would they want to jeopar- in Russia. 10 dize their market? Thus Russian oil — which Still, the Kremlin has was under tight state control in been accused of hiking gas the Soviet era and then was prices to express its dis- grabbed by well-connected en- pleasure with former Sovi- trepreneurs in the euphoric rush et neighbors seeking closer towards capitalism — had all

ties with the West, such as Makeyeva AFP/Getty Images/Tatyana but in name come full circle. Ukraine and Moldova. But Russian oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky is serving eight years in prison for fraud and tax evasion. while Moscow has been 1 Steven Lee Myers, “Russian Crude known to use oil as a political weapon, price increases are more Stops Flowing to Europe,” The New York Times, Jan. 8, 2007, www.ny- times.com/2007/01/08/world/europe/ 08cnd-belarus.html. likely to be dictated by the market — and the need of the en- 2 Michael Richardson, “Russia Puts Energy Importers Over a Barrel,” Yale- ergy sector, and particularly the state-owned Russian oil com- Global, July 10, 2008, http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=9418. pany, , to finance expensive modernization programs. 4 3 Ibid. In addition, in late 2007, Russian oil production reached a 4 Nadejda M. Victor, “Russia’s Gas Crunch,” , April 6, 2008, www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/05/ peak of 9.9 million barrels a day accounting for 65 percent of its AR2006040501954.html. exports, and the energy bonanza has pushed Russian central bank 5 Peter Clarke, “Oil revenues help fuel Russia tech revival,” EETimes, June reserves to the third-highest in the world after Japan and China. 16, 2008, www.eetimes.eu/199904409. The Russian stock market, considered negligible a dozen years 6 “Trouble in the pipeline,” The Economist, May 8, 2008. ago, is now worth $1 trillion. 5 In 2008, however, crude produc- 7 Quoted in “Russia: Energy based economy tries to diversify,” Radio Free Europe, Feb. 9, 2007, www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/02/5520e102-b5db- tion has declined as old wells dried out and the oil industry faced 4805-8b68-73dc922bf344.html. 6 the challenge of developing new Siberian fields. 8 Vidya Ram, “Former Yukos Billionaire on Hunger Strike,” Forbes, Jan. 30, The ever-present danger of a price slump has brought warn- 2008, www.forbes.com/2008/01/30/mikhail-khodorkovsky-yukos-face- ings — even from former President Vladimir Putin himself — that cx_vr_0130autofacescan02.html. 9 Tom Bergin, “BP may have to give up control of Russian venture,” the Russian economy needs to diversify. That won’t be easy, ac- India, April 4, 2008, http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINL0438309620080404. cording to Marshall Goldman, an economics professor at Wellesley 10 Kari Liuhto, “A future role of foreign firms in Russia’s strategic indus- College in and a specialist in the Russian economy. tries,” Pan-European Institute, undated, www.tse.fi/FI/yksikot/erillislaitok- set/pei/Documents/Julkaisut/Liuhto04_07.pdf. Also see Peter Behr, “Energy “Russia was never strong as a manufacturer and lacks a Nationalism,” CQ Global Researcher, July 2007, pp. 157-180. sense of working with the market,” he said. 7

492 CQ Researcher Continued from p. 490 of intense diplomatic activity, coupled Having eliminated his chief rival, Brinkmanship with a massive deployment of U.S. Leon Trotsky, Stalin consolidated his forces to combat-ready levels, own position through purges, politi- onetheless, there were moments Khrushchev agreed to remove the mis- cal show trials and executions that all N of dangerous brinkmanship, such siles in return for a U.S. commitment but wiped out the generation of politi- as the 1948 Berlin airlift. On June 24, not to invade Cuba. 44 cians who had led the revolution. the Soviet Union blocked road and rail The 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan Hundreds of thousands were exiled to access in and out of the U.S.-British- ended the period of East-West detente Siberian slave labor camps, known as French sectors of West Berlin across established during President Richard M. the “gulag.” Stalin’s ruthlessness af- Moscow-controlled highways in East Ger- Nixon’s administration (1969-74). In re- fected even his closest associates. many. In response, the British and U.S. sponse, President Jimmy Carter asked the However, some modern historians air forces launched a massive airlift last- Senate to postpone action on the SALT have produced a revisionist view of ing continuously from June 28, 1948, II nuclear weapons treaty that he and Stalin’s role in the purges. Using Russ- to May 11, 1949. Allied planes airlifted Soviet Premier Leonid Brezhnev had al- ian source material uncovered since 2.3 million short tons of food and ne- ready signed and recalled the U.S. am- the collapse of the Soviet Union, cessities — ranging from milk to coal bassador to Moscow. The United States some historians maintain that al- — to the people of West Berlin and also boycotted the 1980 Summer Olympics though Stalin remains the central fig- made 266,600 flights. The success of the in Moscow. Carter feared that the Sovi- ure in the terror, which he certainly operation humiliated Moscow, forcing et presence in Afghanistan would threat- initiated, the brutality may have gained the Soviets to lift the blockade. 42 en the stability of strategic neighboring a momentum beyond the dictator’s in- Then in 1962, the Cuban Missile Cri- countries, such as Iran and Pakistan, and tentions. Local authorities interpreted sis, which brought the world close to could lead to Soviet control over much Stalin’s orders in their own way, the nuclear war, resulted from Soviet leader of the world’s oil supplies. historians argue, and Stalin had to Nikita S. Khrushchev’s decision to de- keep regaining the initiative. 40 ploy intermediate-range missiles in Fidel As an ally of the United States Castro’s Cuba in response to an emerg- Reagan Talks Tough and Great Britain during World War ing U.S. lead in strategic missiles. Amer- II, the Soviet Union suffered an es- ican ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic mis- n 1980, Carter lost the presidency to timated 27 million civilian and mil- siles) could reach targets in the Soviet I Ronald Reagan, who revived Cold itary deaths and extensive devasta- Union, but Russian warhead-carrying War policies and rhetoric. Reagan called tion. In the postwar conferences, rockets still could not reach U.S. shores. the Soviet Union “the evil empire” and President Franklin D. Roosevelt and To Khrushchev, positioning missiles in escalated the . He also British Prime Minister Winston the Caribbean evened the score. 43 began covert support of anti-Soviet re- Churchill allowed Stalin to bring the The story of the crisis is making sistance in Afghanistan, secretly send- Baltic States into the Soviet Union something of a comeback these days ing billions of dollars to arm and train and to establish Eastern Europe as because Putin has incorporated the in- the mujahedeen rebel forces battling a zone of Soviet influence. 41 cident into his argument against the the Soviets. The effort was successful, By the time of his death in 1953, Stal- planned deployment of missiles in but with unintended consequences: It in had dropped what Churchill called an Poland. Putin points out that for Pres- helped give rise to the oppressive Tal- “Iron Curtain” over Eastern Europe and ident John F. Kennedy, the positioning iban regime and Osama bin Laden’s al made the Soviet Union a nuclear power of Soviet missiles on America’s doorstep Qaeda terrorist organization. and political and economic competitor could not be tolerated. After the mis- In attempting to keep up with Rea- with the United States. The resulting nu- siles were discovered, JFK warned gan’s arms escalation, the Soviets crip- clear “balance of terror” — or theory of Khrushchev on Oct. 22 that a nuclear pled their already ailing economy, and nuclear deterrence — is credited by missile attack from Cuba would be re- in 1989 the Soviet Union rapidly began many with keeping the superpowers from garded as an attack from the Soviet to disintegrate. The Berlin Wall came going to war: Neither side would start a Union, and answered accordingly. down, and Germany was re-unified. conflict for fear of nuclear retaliation lead- Kennedy demanded the removal of As communist governments collapsed ing to mutually assured destruction the nuclear missiles already in posi- all over Eastern Europe, the Soviet (M.A.D.). Instead, the United States and tion in Cuba and ordered a naval block- Union was deprived of its reason for the Soviet Union competed in an ideo- ade of the island to prevent further existence and in 1991 fractured into logically driven Cold War. shipments of weapons. After six days Continued on p. 495

Available online: www.cqresearcher.com June 6, 2008 493 DEALING WITH THE “NEW” RUSSIA

Journalists’ Murders Blamed on Putin’s Government Victims were critics of Chechnya war, corruption and crackdown on freedoms.

wenty-one Russian journalists have been murdered since search by the committee shows that “Putin’s pledge to protect 2000, according to Reporters Without Borders, a Paris- the press has been seriously undermined by his own actions T based international organization that champions free- and those of his government.” 6 dom of the press. Three were killed in 2006: The well-known For example, Putin has signed press laws making criticism of investigative reporter Anna Politkovskaya was shot in the ele- public officials a criminal offense in certain circumstances. The vator of her Moscow apartment building on Oct. 7; Yevgeny law is vaguely written, giving the authorities considerable leeway Gerasimenko, a reporter at the re- in interpreting it, and thereby making po- gional weekly Saratovski Rasklad, was litical reporting more hazardous. Some an- found by his mother with his head alysts suggest that Putin himself, a prod- in a plastic bag and his body show- uct of a repressive regime, is indifferent ing signs of torture; 1 and Ivan toward a free press. A BBC report quotes Safronov, the prominent military cor- him as saying in 2003, “Russia has never respondent of the business daily Kom- had a free media, so I don’t know what mersant, fell to his death from his I am supposed to be impeding.” 7 Moscow apartment building. The au- Based on his campaign remarks on thorities labeled the death a suicide the importance of a free press, some ob- for “private reasons,” after what some servers are hopeful that new President commentators regarded as only a Dmitry Medvedev will allow the media perfunctory inquiry. 2 greater latitude. In early June, he took Politkovskaya’s was the most what some saw as a step in the right di- high-profile slaying since the 2004 rection by effectively stopping in its shooting in Moscow of American jour- tracks a press law amendment giving au- nalist Paul Klebnikov, editor of the thorities power to close down a media Russian edition of Forbes magazine. outlet suspected of libel. Official investigations have avoid- Medvedev did this by writing on the ed linking the deaths to the victims’ draft amendment that had already passed reporting, but other sources have the committee stage in the Russian par- pointed out that each one was liament: “It would be logical to remove known as a critic of Putin’s govern- AFP/Getty Images/Dmitry Saltykovski this draft from further discussion.” Re- Investigative reporter Anna ment. Politkovskaya, for example, was Politkovskaya, a fierce critic of then- ports said the amendment — ironically an outspoken opponent of the war President Putin, was shot dead in 2006. introduced after a Russian magazine had in Chechnya and a critic of corrup- reported that Vladimir Putin was plan- tion and shrinking freedoms in Russia. Politkovskaya’s final ar- ning to divorce his wife and marry a 24-year-old Olympic gym- ticle was published by a Russian tabloid newspaper, along with nast — would almost certainly be scrapped. 8 transcripts of videotaped torture sessions of Chechens that she obtained. 3 Klebnikov reportedly had been warned not to pub- 1 “Russia-Annual Report 2007,” Reporters Without Borders, www.rsf.org/ar- lish a scoop about Russian arms sales to Syria and Iran. ticle.php3?id_article=20823. 2 See Nina Ognianova, “Putin’s Broken Promise,” The Huffington Post, Feb. Yelena Tregubova, a former member of the Kremlin press 14, 2008, www.huffingtonpost.com/nina-ognianova/putins-broken- corps, sought political asylum in the United Kingdom after writ- promise_b_86763.html. ing an unflattering book on government corruption, Tales of a 3 C.J. Chivers, “Slain Reporter’s Final Article Points to Torture in Chechnya,” Kremlin Digger. She lost her job as a result, and a bomb was The New York Times, Oct. 13, 2006, p. A3. 4 4 Yelena Tregubova, “Why I fled Russia,” The Independent, June 5, 2007, exploded outside the door of her apartment. www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/yelena-tregubova-why-i-fled- The killings are seen as part of a government campaign to putins-russia-and-why-the-west-must-appease-him-no-longer-451724.html. control the media. “Putin has shut all independent TV chan- 5 Ibid. nels, introduced harsh censorship, blocked access to the press 6 Ognianova, op. cit. for the democratic opposition,” wrote Tregubova. 5 In 2007, 7 Paul Jenkins, “Russian journalism comes under fire,” BBC News, July 2, 2004, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3860299.stm. Putin acknowledged that journalists in Russia faced serious 8 Guy Faulconbridge, “Medvedev sinks tougher media libel law,” Reuters, threats and promised to protect them, but Nina Ognianova from June 2, 2008, www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Russia/idUSL0237789020080602. the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists, said re-

494 CQ Researcher Continued from p. 493 Despite their country’s current pros- A year earlier, Putin had arrested bil- 15 independent nations, with Russia perity, a generation of older Russians lionaire businessman Mikhail Khodor- as the first and largest. 45 still remembers the financial crisis of kovsky, one of the world’s richest men In September 1994, President Boris 1998, when falling oil prices brought and head of the Yukos oil group, on Yeltsin came to Washington to seek fi- the emerging Russian economy — and charges of tax evasion — “a move wide- nancial aid from President Bill Clinton. Yeltsin’s administration — to the brink ly interpreted as a declaration of war From 1992 to 1994, the United States of disaster. Even as the value of the against the so-called oligarchs,” wrote provided $40.4 billion in aid to Russia ruble plummeted, a major liquidity short- Marshall Goldman in Foreign Affairs mag- and post-communist Eastern Europe. In age paralyzed the banking system. When, azine. The oligarchs were an easy target, 1998, the International Monetary Fund early in 1998, the International Mone- and Khodorkovsky’s arrest was a popu- (IMF) earmarked an additional $11.2 bil- tary Fund delayed payment of a much- lar move. Putin’s own popularity jumped lion in aid to the Russians. In 1991, a needed $670 million loan payment be- from 70 percent to 80 percent. 50 group of experts connected with Har- cause economic reforms were going Putin’s relationship with his Amer- vard University formed the Russian Pro- too slowly, Yeltsin’s government de- ican counterpart, George W. Bush, ap- ject and worked closely with Moscow clared a moratorium on repayments of peared to start warmly but has shift- on a sweeping overhaul of the econo- foreign debts. The central bank even ed to cold and distant. Early on, when my. The aim was swift privatization and halted ruble-dollar trading because it Putin visited Bush at his ranch in the introduction of free-market policies didn’t want to give out more cash. At Crawford, Texas, Bush waxed eloquent to replace communist economic controls. the same time, a panicked public began about their meeting. “The more I get But the U.S.-encouraged “shock ther- withdrawing their savings en masse, to know President Putin,” Bush said, apy” had disastrous consequences. causing many banks to simply close “the more I get to see his heart and The new free market opened the way their doors. By the end of the year, the soul, and the more I know we can for “tycoon capitalism,” which bene- Russian government had negotiated a work together in a positive way.” 51 fited a corrupt political oligarchy. By $22 billion loan, but foreign confidence But developments have under- December 1992, for example, 90,000 had suffered a blow from which it took mined that early promise. On more state companies had been privatized, several years to recover. 47 than one occasion Bush has publicly but less than 14 percent had been sold Meanwhile, a massive organized-crime criticized Putin for the slow pace of at auction. Most enterprises had wave took hold. The FBI was called in democratic reforms in Russia. “Strong changed hands at shockingly low val- to advise on how to combat the “Russ- countries are built by developing strong uations through insider deals. Key fig- ian mafia,” which was said to include democracies. I think Vladimir heard ures in the Harvard Russian project more than 5,700 different groups. The me loud and clear,” Bush said at a were accused by the Justice Depart- greatest danger of all was the possible summit press conference with Putin in ment of using federal funds for per- theft and sale to terrorists of weapons- Slovakia in February 2005. 52 sonal gain. The charge of “knowing- grade plutonium from the poorly guard- Bush’s comments clearly irritated ly defrauding the government” was ed Russian nuclear arsenals. 48 Putin. “We are constantly being taught originally extended to the university about democracy, but . . . those who itself, but Harvard was able to estab- teach don’t want to learn themselves,” lish that it was not involved. 46 Putin’s Rise he said on one occasion. 53 And in “Since Clinton’s presidency, every- 2006, with the Iraq insurgency raging, body miscalculated the chances of es- utin was Yeltsin’s last prime min- Putin snapped, “We certainly don’t want tablishing a sustainable democracy in P ister and his choice to succeed him. to have the same democracy as they Russia, and the time it would take to On his election as president in 2000, have in Iraq.” 54 build a democracy,” says Krasheninnikova, Putin spoke of furthering the democra- Starting in 1995, when Russia signed of the Council for Trade and Econom- tic process; but many wondered an $800 million deal to help Iran com- ic Cooperation. “The Americans thought whether the former intelligence officer plete two nuclear reactors, the United it should all go faster and should fol- really had been converted to democra- States has objected to Moscow helping low the American way, and were not cy. In 2004, Putin fired Prime Minister the Iranians’ nuclear ambitions. As work prepared to recognize the progress that , a Yeltsin appointee progressed very slowly on the light- had been made. There is actually a who — according to a BBC analysis — water reactor at Bushehr, the Bush ad- widespread feeling in the Russian es- had “strong sympathies for the oligarchs ministration charged that Tehran want- tablishment that Russia may not be quite who made their fortunes in the chaot- ed to produce enriched uranium so it ready for democracy.” ic days of privatization.” 49 could develop nuclear weapons — which

Available online: www.cqresearcher.com June 6, 2008 495 DEALING WITH THE “NEW” RUSSIA the Iranians denied. Americans elect their next Moscow has offered to president. This election year, supply enriched uranium the periodic hiatus began for the Iranians, so Tehran earlier because of the would not have to de- longer-than-usual primary velop its own. The Rus- campaign. Thus, for exam- sians said they would ple, a NATO summit in keep track of the nuclear Bucharest, Romania, on fuel, taking back the April 2-4 left a solid unfin- spent fuel to prevent the ished agenda for the next Iranians from extracting White House, and the Bush- weapons-grade plutoni- Putin meeting that fol- um from it. The Irani- lowed — a swan song for ans, however, had turned both — did little more than down the offer, arguing put gloss on the personal that dependence on a relationship and try to pro- foreign supplier would ject the mood of goodwill make them vulnerable to the future. to supply cut-offs. 55 Meanwhile, despite strong The United States support from President Bush, and Russia also are on Georgia and Ukraine — opposite sides on the two former Soviet republics issue of independence on Russia’s southwestern for Kosovo — a Serbian border — remain outside province whose ethnic the North Atlantic alliance, Albanian majority uni- which they want to join. AFP/Getty Images/Sergey Kulikov AFP/Getty Images/Sergey laterally declared inde- A natural gas pipeline is installed near St. Petersburg. Profits NATO postponed their entry pendence from Serbia from Russia’s natural gas reserves — the world’s largest — as well until an unspecified date fol- in February, with the as the country’s substantial oil reserves, have helped lowing strong Russian ob- West’s acquiescence. usher in a new era of prosperity in Russia. jections to their entry into Washington backs Koso- the alliance. 57 vo’s separation from Belgrade, Russia Central Asia, which they used — with Administration efforts to enroll opposes it. The Albanians are mostly Putin’s blessing — to invade Afghanistan Ukraine and Georgia as members of Muslims. Moscow considers the Ortho- after 9/11. Five years after the attack NATO had angered the Russian leader. dox Christian Serbs natural allies. 56 on bin-Laden and the Taliban in Moscow may have sulked when the The Russian leaders are also upset Afghanistan, the Russians have asked Balkan states joined NATO, but mem- about the Bush administration’s deci- the Americans to leave or set an exit bership for the two republics along sion to unilaterally scrap the 1972 Anti- date. No date has been set. east-west oil and gas routes are a Ballistic Missile treaty so the United much more serious issue. Putin says States could resume nuclear testing — the West would be crossing a red line which the treaty expressly forbade. Bush into an area of Russian influence. contended the treaty was a Cold War CURRENT Germany and France, anxious not relic, since one of its two signatories to alienate Russia even further, led a — the former Soviet Union — no campaign to put the U.S. proposal on longer exists. To the Russians, howev- SITUATION hold. 58 er, it’s still the cornerstone of nuclear Le Monde calls Georgia “the most deterrence. But Bush’s plan to deploy faithful American ally after Britain in an anti-missile system in Eastern Eu- overseas operations.” Georgia (pop- rope meant the treaty had to go. Russian Discontent ulation 4.6 million) has 180 soldiers And the Russians are nervous that stationed in Kosovo, 2,000 deployed the United States still occupies military very four years, global relations in Iraq and has pledged to shortly bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan in E are virtually put on hold while Continued on p. 498

496 CQ Researcher At Issue:

Is Western-styleYes democracy possible in Russia?

FYODOR LUKYANOV VERONIKA KRASHENINNIKOVA EDITOR, RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS, DIRECTOR OF U.S. OPERATIONS, COUNCIL A MOSCOW-BASED FOREIGN-POLICY FOR TRADE AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION QUARTERLY WRITTEN FOR CQ RESEARCHER, JUNE 2008 WRITTEN FOR CQ RESEARCHER, JUNE 2008

ladimir Putin has views of his own about how Russia here is a widespread consensus in the Russian establish- should be governed. These views often do not fit in ment that the Russian people are not ready for a Western- vwith the picture the West would like to see. But Putin type of democracy. This belief is shared by a number of has never said that Russia does not seek to build a modern t experts as well as by society at large. In other words, the peo- democracy. He does insist, however, that Russia must come to ple themselves do not believe they are ready. democracy following its own path — but he does not question This stark fact is substantiated by opinion polls: In the re- the destination. cent presidential election, 64 percent of Russians had no ob- This distinguishes his approach from the classical Russian jection to changing the constitution so that President Putin conservatism, which maintained that Russia has its own unique could run for a third term; 68 percent were willing to vote path to follow, which leads to its own special goal. That is, for anyone Putin presented as his “successor.” we should not only abandon the particular way of the West, Despite pro forma progressive declarations, those who but we should go opposite ways to different goals. Therefore, achieve positions of power quickly slip into timeworn habits: Putin’s view marks a serious historical change: He acknowl- They govern by issuing orders from above. Furthermore, the edges that we share a common destination with the West. majority of the governed prefer to be ordered around rather But whatyes exactly is “Western-style democracy”? than taking responsibility.no The Russian tradition of “Please Democratic development in various countries went through come and rule over us” — dating back to the 9th century, different stages and took different periods of time — from when Slavic tribes invited the Varangians (Norsemen) to come several centuries (as in England and Holland) to several and rule their country — remains pervasive. decades (for example, Japan and ) or even a few years Exterior factors also slow down the progress of democracy (Poland, Hungary and South Korea). The results differed, as in Russia. Western accusations of “rolling back democracy” well. Democracy, Italian-style, is different from Swedish imply there was democracy in Russia in the 1990s. Although democracy, while Japanese-style democracy cannot be com- there may have been incipient institutions moving in the di- pared with U.S. democracy. The difference is even greater rection of democracy, to ordinary Russians the 1990s are asso- with Indian or Taiwanese democracy. ciated with anarchy and chaos — if that is democracy, they All democratic countries are united in one thing — they want no part of it. recognize a set of a few general principles on which state ad- Moreover, the U.S. administration’s democratizing pressure ministration is built, among them the separation of powers, an always equates democracy with American interests. People independent judiciary and political pluralism. want to be democratic, but they do not want to be dominat- How these principles are translated into life is another mat- ed by the U.S.A. This goes for countries all around the world, ter, and every country does it in its own way. not only Russia. It would be naïve to believe that a country that for cen- Democracy, by definition, has to grow from within the turies existed as a centralized empire of states can turn into a demos in question; it cannot be imposed from the outside or modern democracy within a few years. Conditions for that do from above. People themselves have to take responsibility for not emerge overnight; society must ripen first. However, there their own human dignity and rights. This realization grows are no grounds to believe that Russia is less capable of such with wealth and with rising living standards. The middle class ripening than other countries. As Russia becomes more ma- has been continuously expanding in recent years, and this may ture, its society and political class will demonstrate a demand be the greatest hope for the future. When people have nothing for state administration mechanisms that have proved effective to lose but their chains, they tend to believe in simple solu- in other countries. tions that produce October revolutions. When they have much Outside interference is often counterproductive. The process to lose, people tend to behave much more responsibly. of democratic maturing can hardly be speeded up artificially Today, the Russians sacrifice their democratic liberties in the — especially in such a huge and inert country as Russia. Yet, name of order and a fast economic recovery — just as the there is no doubt that, strategically, Russia will move precisely Americans sacrifice theirs in the name of security.

in this No direction.

Available online: www.cqresearcher.com June 6, 2008 497 DEALING WITH THE “NEW” RUSSIA

Continued from p. 496 Keflavik in 2006. The base had been inated the summit agenda. “By keep- send 500 to Afghanistan. The Geor- closed because the Pentagon regarded ing up the rhetoric on the missile gian army is U.S.-trained and equipped it as a relic of the Cold War, but shield and NATO membership for under the Pentagon’s Train and Equip, when the Russians resumed Soviet- Georgia and Ukraine, there was no and Sustainment and Stability Oper- era strategic patrols near Iceland, the mention of issues which Putin didn’t ations programs; and the United States Bush administration appealed to want raised — freedom of expression covers two-thirds of Georgian sol- NATO, which agreed to send inter- and other similar problems,” Golts diers’ pay. 59 ceptors to Iceland to monitor the told the Italian newspaper la Repub- Both Georgia and Ukraine are deeply Russians. blica. “Putin imposed on Europe, on disappointed at their continued ex- the United States and NATO an agen- clusion from NATO and are surprised da of the 1980s.” 63 that Bush’s support was insufficient to open NATO’s door. When NATO’s “Strategic Framework” Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Schef- fer tried to console them, saying mem- ust after the Bucharest summit, the bership would happen some day, he J two outgoing presidents met at OUTLOOK got a sharp response from Moscow. Putin’s home in the Black Sea re- Any attempt by the alliance to re-open sort of Sochi in what would be their the issue, declared Sergei Ryabkov, di- last chance to shape their legacy of Who Will Run Russia? rector of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s eight years of U.S.-Russian relations. Department of European Cooperation, They put on a show of camaraderie, would be “the biggest possible strate- stressing that there was “no change in hen President Bush met gic error.” 60 our fundamental attitude”— as Putin W Medvedev at Sochi, Russia’s Meanwhile, NATO approved Bush’s put it — over U.S. anti-missile plans. president-elect trotted out standard anti-missile project despite Putin’s ob- The two leaders agreed to leave the remarks about the importance of the jections. The alliance encouraged Russ- issue to their successors but drew up U.S.-Russian relationship, calling it “a ian participation along lines previously a “strategic framework” on future U.S.- key factor of international security,” outlined to Moscow by Secretary of Russian cooperation. and expressed his intention “to keep State Condoleezza Rice and Defense “We reject the zero-sum thinking up that relationship . . . so there Secretary Robert Gates. The Russians of the Cold War,” the document says. will be constructive engagement be- thus have on the table the most com- “Rather, we are dedicated to work- tween us.” 64 prehensive offer yet to cooperate in ing together and with other nations Yet within less than a year after his the anti-missile project by combining to address the global challenges of swearing in on May 6, Medvedev will respective technologies. the .” The document lists have to engage a new U.S. president, To agree, however, would imply an agenda of future cooperation on with a new agenda. Even so, the same that Putin considers Iran — which counter-terrorism, trade and Russia’s national interests will be at stake, and Moscow regards as a friendly nation long-standing bid to join the World the same key issues will be awaiting — a potential nuclear threat. In a Trade Organization — long blocked resolution. closed-door NATO meeting, the Russ- by the U.S. Congress. On nuclear The presumptive GOP candidate, ian leader repeated his earlier argu- non-proliferation, the leaders agreed Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., says he would ment that, “No one can seriously on a managed reduction of thousands “take a hard line on Russia” and has think that Iran would dare attack the of nuclear weapons in their arsenals even vowed to try to evict Russia from United States.” Instead, he said, almost two decades after the fall of the G8 summit of industrialized nations NATO should explore ways “to help the Berlin Wall. 62 — something the other G8 members Iran become more predictable and While the arguments over missile probably wouldn’t allow. McCain also transparent.” 61 deployment and NATO enlargement seems determined to push ahead with In another NATO decision favor- continued to dominate the East-West the missile shield. 65 ing Washington, French Mirage com- debate, other issues got pushed into Sen. , D-Ill., the pre- bat planes have been deployed in the background — including the slow sumptive Democratic nominee, has Iceland to close a gap left in the al- progress of democracy. In that respect, promised to be tougher than Bush was liance’s defenses when the United said independent Russian military an- on Russia and to continue efforts to get States closed its 60-year-old base in alyst Aleksandr Golts, Putin had dom- Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. 66

498 CQ Researcher Medvedev, however, remains an un- annual congress and received parlia- known quantity, with the overriding mentary approval as prime minister on Notes question being: To what extent will May 8. Thus, Putin’s prime ministerial Putin be speaking through Medvedev? appointment at the head of a party that 1 David Morgan, “Bush phones Medvedev after Developments in Moscow will be dominates the State Duma (315 seats Russian election win,” Reuters, March 3, 2008, closely watched for indications of a out of 450) has changed the basis of http://uk.reuters.com/article/gc07/idUKL288352 working relationship. Medvedev’s first political power in Russia, making Putin’s 3820080304. appearance on the international scene new office more than the rubber stamp 2 “Cameron: EU-Russia relations should be is likely to be at the G8 summit on position it was before. more positive,” EurActiv, April 9, 2008, July 7 in Tokyo. An early indication of On the economic front, by year’s www.euractiv.com/en/foreign-affairs/cameron- who’s in control could be whether end Russia could finally be celebrat- eu-russia-relations-positive/article-171457. 3 Putin goes along as well. ing its accession to the 152-member Clifford J. Levy, “Putin Agrees to Be Protégé’s European Union countries can be World Trade Organization after near- Prime Minister,” The New York Times, Dec. 18, 2007, www.nytimes.com/2007/12/18/world/eu- expected to ensure that the Georgia- ly 15 years of negotiations. In 2006, rope/18russia.html. Ukraine NATO membership question Moscow and Washington signed an 4 Felix Goryunov, “Beware of the WTO,” remains in abeyance, but it can al- agreement clearing the major hurdle Moscow Times, May 28, 2008, www.moscow- ways be brought up to pressure of American opposition to Russian times.ru/article/1016/42/367803.htm. Moscow if the situation warrants it. membership. 69 WTO membership is 5 Simon Tisdall, “Putinism could be the next Meanwhile, the Kosovo situation seems important to Russia because it builds Russian export,” The Guardian, Nov. 21, 2007, resolved since the Albanian declara- foreign investor confidence and is www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/nov/21/tisdall- tion of independence. The main thrust seen in Moscow as confirmation that briefing.simontisdall. now is for the United Nations and the Russia has emerged as a free-market 6 “Bush congratulates Russian President-elect international community to ensure full economy. 70 Medvedev,” Novosti, March 4, 2008. http:// safeguards for Kosovo’s 10 percent The shadow over Russia’s bright en.rian.ru/russia/20080304/100642522.html. See also www.reuters.com/article/topNews/id Serb minority. economic picture is the steady decline USL2883523820080304?feedType=RSS&feed- Some analysts believe that, left to in oil production, the instrument of Name=topNews. his own devices, Medvedev might Putin’s successful presidency. In re- 7 See White House press conference at adopt a liberal agenda, easing the cent months production has dropped www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/06/ pressure on Russia’s persecuted de- 2 percent below last October’s peak 20010618.html. mocrats, journalists and other embat- of 9.9 million barrels a day — most- 8 Masha Lipman, “Medvedev’s Chance to tled groups. Much of this perception ly due to aging Siberian wells running Lead?” The Washington Post, March 26, 2008, is based on his major campaign speech. dry, poor handling of the industry and p. A19, www.washingtonpost.com/wp- Stephen Sestanovich, the top Russia huge taxes (up to 90 percent). There dyn/content/article/2008/03/25/AR200803250 expert at the Washington-based Coun- are still massive reserves in remote 2347.html. 9 cil on Foreign Relations, called it “a eastern Siberia and the Sakhalin re- Peter Finn, “Putin, in Speech, Accuses U.S. of Setting Off ‘New Arms Race,’ ” The Wash- kind of manifesto for a more liberal gion, but exploiting them will require ington Post, Feb. 9, 2008, p. 9. and democratic formula for governing sizable investments. Still, the fact that 10 “Zbigniew Brzezinski Assesses U.S.-Russia Russia,” citing Medvedev’s call for more oil and gas account for 50 percent of Relations,” Radio Free Europe, May 11, 2005, rule of law, an independent judiciary, Russia’s budget revenues and 65 per- www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/05/b62307e reduced state interference and a crack- cent of its exports should be incen- 1-832c-4fbc-ab91-ba8fa7a0eb24.html. down on corruption. 67 tive enough. 11 See Finn, op. cit., p. 9. But Sestanovich also hedges his bets. As for U.S. relations with Russia, 12 Background information on Russia from “Nobody can be sure what [the speech] the new occupant in the Kremlin Energy Information Administration, means,” he said. “Nobody knows how needs to remember one thing about www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Russia/Background.html. 13 seriously to take it. . . . I think his counterpart in the White House, Robert Kagan, “New Europe, Old Russia,” Medvedev will have very little power according to McFaul at the Carnegie The Washington Post, Feb. 6, 2008, p. A19, www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/ to do anything, at least at the outset, Institute: “Russia sees itself as the No. 1 68 article/2008/02/05/AR2008020502879.html. without clearing it . . . with Putin.” interlocutor with the United States, but 14 “Russian oil supply stop unsettles Ger- Meanwhile, Putin has already em- Washington doesn’t. That asymmetry many,” United Press International, Feb. 25, barked on the new phase of his po- is not understood by Moscow.” Per- 2008, www.upi.com/International_Security/En- litical career. He was formally elected haps each side needs to re-examine ergy/Briefing/2008/02/25/russian_oil_supply_ leader of the United Russia party at its its priorities. stop_unsettles_germany/5189/.

Available online: www.cqresearcher.com June 6, 2008 499 DEALING WITH THE “NEW” RUSSIA

15 Lilia Shevtsova, “Russians should prepare for 29 Anatole Lieven, “A New Iron Curtain,” The 46 George W. Krasnow, “Would Harvard Ever the unexpected,” Daily Telegraph, Feb. 18, 2008, Atlantic, January 1996, www.theatlantic.com/ Help Russia?” Johnson’s Russia List, March 10, www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/ issues/96jan/nato/nato.htm. 2006, www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/2006-62-24.cfm. opinion/2008/02/20/do2003.xml. 30 Buchanan, op. cit. For additional back- 47 “Chronology of Russian Financial Crisis,” The 16 “Russia’s Medvedev hints at Kremlin power ground, see Mary H. Cooper, “Future of NATO,” Washington Post, Aug. 27, 1998, www.wash- struggle,” Reuters, March 27, 2008, www. Feb. 28, 2003, CQ Researcher, pp. 177-200. ingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/russiagov/ reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL27358028 31 Zbigniew Brzezinski Assesses U.S.-Russia stories/russiachron.htm. 20080327. Relations,” op. cit. 48 “Mr. Yeltsin Goes to Washington,” BNET, 17 Levy, op. cit. 32 “America withdraws from ABM Treaty,” Sept. 26, 1994, http://findarticles.com/p/arti- 18 “Putin Seen Tapping Ambassador to U.S.,” Dec. 13, 2001, BBC News, http://news.bbc.co. cles/mi_m0EPF/is_n4_v94/ai_16805514. Moscow Times, June 2, 2008, www.the- uk/2/hi/americas/1707812.stm. 49 Sheila Barter, “Analysis: Putin moves against moscowtimes.com/article/1010/42/367910.htm. 33 Ibid. old guard,” BBC News, Feb. 23, 2004. 19 Jonas Bernstein, “Putin Makes Foreign Pol- 34 “Russian President Putin Interviewed by http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3517867.stm. icy Abroad, Medvedev Chairs Security Coun- Journalists from G8 Countries,” Global Re- 50 Marshall Goldman, “Putin and the Oligarchs,” cil at Home,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, June 2, search.ca, June 11, 2007. www.globalre- Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2004, www.for- 2008, www.jamestown.org/edm/article.php?ar- search.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5938. eignaffairs.org/20041101faessay83604/marshall- ticle_id=2373106. 35 Ibid. i-goldman/putin-and-the-oligarchs.html. 20 Levy, op. cit. 36 Jim Hoagland, “NATO’s Middling Agenda,” 51 “President Bush and President Putin Talk to 21 See transcript at “Major Speeches: Speech The Washington Post, March 28, p. A19, Crawford Students,” Office of the Press Secretary, at the Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum,” Feb. www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/ White House, Nov. 15, 2001, www.white- 15, 2008, www.medvedev2008.ru/eng- article/2008/03/27/AR2008032702618.html. house.gov/news/releases/2001/11/20011115-4.html. lish_2008_02_15.htm. 37 Robert Joseph and J. D. Crouch II, For additional background, see David Masci, 22 Bernstein, op. cit. “Moscow’s Missile Gambit,” The Washington “U.S.-Russia Relations,” CQ Researcher, Jan. 18, 23 Sergei Rogov, “U.S. to face choice: Partner- Post, March 13, 2008, p. A17, www.washing- 2002, pp. 25-48. ship or Confrontation,” Kommersant, March 28, tonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/ 52 “Bush criticizes Putin on democracy’s 2008, www.kommersant.com/p872195/r_527/U.S.- 12/AR2008031203394.html. slide,” China Daily, Feb. 2, 2005, www.chi- Russia_relations_reached_turning_point/. 38 Kenneth Jost, “Russia and the Former So- nadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-02/25/con- 24 Joseph Biden, “U.S. must take a new look viet Republics,” CQ Researcher, June 17, 2005, tent_419378.htm. at Russia’s soul,” Moscow Times, March 25, pp. 541-564. 53 Text of speech to Munich Conference on 2008, p. 11. 39 Ibid. Security Policy, Munich, Germany, Feb. 10, 25 For background, see Roland Flamini, “Nu- 40 See “Stalinist Terror: New Perspectives,” 2007, www.securityconference.de/konferen- clear Proliferation,” CQ Global Researcher, essays edited by John Arch-Getty and Roberta zen/rede.php?sprache=en&id=179. January 2007, pp. 1-26. Thompson Manning, Cambridge University Press, 54 David Jackson, “A Changing Relationship,” 26 Michael Fletcher, “Russia Has ‘Derailed’ Its 1993. USA Today, July 1, 2007, www.usatoday.com/ Reforms, Bush Says,” The Washington Post, June 41 Jost, op. cit. news/washington/2007-07-01-bush-putin_N.htm. 6, 2007, www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con- 42 For chronology of the Berlin Airlift, see 55 Michael Gordon, “Against U.S. wishes, Rus- tent/article/2007/06/05/AR2007060500148.html. “Dates and Statistics,” British Berlin Airlift As- sia will sell reactors to Iran,” The New York Times, 27 Patrick J. Buchanan, “Doesn’t Putin Have sociation, www.bbaa-airlift.org.uk/statistics.html. July 3, 1998, www.fas.org/news/iran/1998/980307- a Point?” VDare.com, Feb. 12, 2007, www. 43 “Cuban Missile Crisis,” GlobalSecurity.org, iran-nyt.htm; also see Jean-Christophe Peuch, vdare.com/buchanan/070212_putin.htm. www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/cuba-62.htm. “Were Moscow Talks just about Uranium En- 28 Nabi Abdullaev, “Complaints of Fraud, 44 Ibid. richment?” Radio Free Europe, Feb. 22, 2008, Bribery and Pressure,” Moscow Times, March 45 For background, see Victoria Pope, “Soviet www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/02/A5B0EBF6- 3, 2008, www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/2008-47- Republics Rebel,” CQ Researcher, July 12, 1991, 2E6E-43AE-96B3-BBCAB7268B4A.html. 12.cfm. pp. 465-488. 56 Dan Bilefsky, “Battle lines drawn over Koso- vo,” Scotsman, Feb. 24, 2008, http://news.scots- man.com/latestnews/Battle-lines-drawn-over- About the Author Kosovo.3809927.jp. For additional background, Roland Flamini is a Washington-based correspondent see Brian Beary, “Separatist Movements,” CQ who writes a foreign-affairs column for CQ Weekly. Flu- Global Researcher, April 2008, pp. 85-114. 57 ent in six languages, he served as Time magazine’s bu- “NATO allies rebuff Bush on expansion,” Think Progress, April 4, 2008, http:// reau chief in Rome, Bonn, Beirut and Jerusalem and later thinkprogress.org/2008/04/04/bush-nato/. served as international editor at United Press International. 58 “Putin to NATO: Star guest or party poop- He wrote “Afghanistan on the Brink” and “The New Latin er,” ABC News, March 31, 2008, www.abc.net. America” for CQ Global Researcher. au/news/stories/2008/03/31/2203620.htm.

500 CQ Researcher 59 Piotr Smolar, “Recalee, la Georgie, allie mil- itaire des Etats-Unis, attend son heure,” Le Monde, April 5, 2008, p. 6. Also see www.nytimes.com/ FOR MORE INFORMATION 2008/04/03/world/europe/03nato.html?_r=1&hp , 1775 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, DC 20036; &oref=slogin. (202) 797-6000; www.brookings.edu. A nonprofit, public policy organization con- 60 “Nato denies Georgia and Ukraine,” BBC ducting research to “create a more open, safe, prosperous and cooperative inter- News, April 3, 2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/ national system.” europe/7328276.stm. 61 “No Cold War, but no deals at NATO-Russia Carnegie Moscow Center — Carnegie Institute for International Peace, 12/2, summit,” Agence France-Presse, April 4, 2008, Trevskaya, Moscow, 125009, Russia; (495) 935-8904; [email protected]. The Moscow http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hqyJUgrT branch of a Washington think tank, with foreign and Russian researchers working Tt5hqddsGEOwL8dH6OpA. on a broad range of policy issues. 62 “Bush, Putin and their successors,” Inter- national Herald Tribune, April 8, 2008, Center for National Security Studies, 2 Skovorody St., 254070 Kiev, Ukraine; www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/08/opinion/edr (38-044) 416-6048; [email protected]. Concentrates on studies and analyses of internal and external threats to Ukraine’s national security. ussia.php. The document is at www.white- house.gov/news/releases/2008/04/20080406- Center for Russian and East European Studies, University Center of International 4.html. 63 Politics, 4400 Wesley W. Posvar Hall, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260; “Il Cremlino cerca credibilita’ per il neo leader (412) 648-7404. Conducts in-depth studies on Russian affairs. Medvedev,” la Repubblica, April 5, 2008, p. 13. 64 “President Bush Meets with President-Elect Council on Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th St., New York, NY 10065; (212) 434- Dmitry Medvedev of Russia,” White House 9400; www.cfr.org. An independent, non-partisan think tank dedicated to improv- press release, April 6, 2008, www.white- ing global understanding; publishes the authoritative Foreign Affairs magazine. house.gov/news/releases/2008/04/20080406- 1.html. Gramsci Institute, Fondazione Istituto Gramsci, Via Portuense 95c, 00153 Rome, 65 Erik Christiensen, and William Partlett, “The Italy; (396) 580-6646. A think tank devoted to the left-wing philosopher Antonio Candidates and Russia,” Foreign Policy in Focus, Gramsci; its archives hold the papers of leading Italian communists, including www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5043; also see Elisabeth Palmiro Togliatti, who spent years living in Moscow, and Enrico Berlinguer, Bumiller and Larry Rohter, “Foreign Policy: 2 founder of Eurocommunism. Camps Seek McCain’s Ear,” The New York Times, April 10, 2008, p. 1. Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies (ISKRAN), 2/3 Khlebny per., Moscow 123995, Russia; (7095) 290-5875; [email protected]. A Russian think tank focusing 66 Abdul Ruff, “Vote 2008: Candidates unit- on U.S. and Canadian foreign and economic policy. ed in foreign policy,” Global Politician, June 1, 2008, http://globalpolitician.com/24828-elec- Institute of Economics — Russian Academy of Science (IERAS), 32 Nakhi- tions-foreign-policy. movskiy prop., 117218 Moscow, Russia; (7499) 724-1541; www.inecon.ru. Studies 67 Transcript, Medvedev’s Krasnoyarsk speech, the social transformation and modernization practices of countries in transition to op. cit. a market economy and democracy. 68 “Sestanovich: Behind the Scenes ‘Warfare’ As Russia Awaits Putin Successor,” Council on For- Institute of European Affairs, Migration and Eastern Policy Program, Ul eign Relations, Feb. 26, 2008, www.cfr.org/pub- Szpitalna 5 lok 22, 00-031 Warsaw, Poland; (48-22) 556-4260; [email protected]. A lication/15602/sestanovich.html?breadcrumb=% think tank concerned with Poland’s relations with neighboring states. 2Fissue%2F. 69 See Helen Cooper, “U.S. and Russia Sign Ac- Institute of World Economy and International Affairs — IMEMO, Profsoyuz- cord on W.T.O. Membership,” The New York naya St. 23, Moscow GSP-7, Russia; (7905) 120-5236; [email protected]. A Times, Nov. 19, 2006, www.nytimes.com/2006/ well-known center of fundamental and applied socioeconomic, political and strategic research, with close ties to the Russian establishment. 11/19/world/asia/20prexycnd.html?_r=2&fta=y&o ref=slogin&oref=slogin. 70 Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, Woodrow Wilson Center; One “Russia inches closer to WTO accession,” Woodrow Wilson Plaza, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W., Washington, DC 20004- EurActiv, Feb. 18, 2008, www.euractiv.com/en/ 3027; (202) 691-4100; [email protected]. Brings scholars and govern- trade/russia-inches-closer-wto-accession/arti- mental experts together to discuss political, social, and economic issues affecting cle-170367. Russia and other successor states of the Soviet Union.

Russia and Eurasia Program, Royal Institute of International Affairs — Chatham House; 10 St James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LE, England; (44207) 7957-5700; [email protected]. Studies the foreign and domestic policies of Russia and the members of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Available online: www.cqresearcher.com June 6, 2008 501 Bibliography Selected Sources

Books Levy reports on Dmitry Medvedev’s expected victory in the Russian presidential election. Baker, Peter, and Susan Glasser, Kremlin Rising: Vladimir Putin’s Russia and the End of Revolution, updated edition, Lyne, Sir Roderic, “Russia and the West: Is Confrontation Potomac Books, 2007. Inevitable?” Russia in Global Affairs, January-March 2008, Two former Moscow hands (both news correspondents and pp. 86-103. married to each other) trace Putin’s path to power and his A British expert says Russian-Western tensions made the major role in creating the new Russia. idea of a partnership “unrealistic.”

Goldgeier, James M., and Michael McFaul, Power and Myers, Stephen Lee, “U.S. Frustrated by Putin’s Grip on Purpose: U.S. Policy Towards Russia after the Cold War, Power,” The New York Times, Oct. 15, 2007. Brookings Institution Press, 2003. Myers describes problems the Bush administration is having The director of the Institute of European, Russian, and in dealing with Putin. Eurasian Studies at George Washington University (Goldgeier) and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute (McFaul) exam- Ramonet, Ignacio, “The World’s New Look,” Le Monde ine how American policy makers coped with the opportu- Diplomatique (English Edition), December 2001, nities and challenges presented by the “new” Russia. www.mondediplofriends.org.uk/t_dec01art1.htm. An international-affairs commentator looks at the world after Politkovskaya, Anna, Putin’s Russia: Life in a Failing the 9/11 attacks, with special reference to Russia. Democracy, Metropolitan Books, 2005. A prominent Russian journalist who was assassinated in 2006 Schleifer, Andre, and Daniel Treisman, “A Normal Country,” paints a critical portrait of President Vladimir Putin’s autocratic rule. Foreign Affairs, March/April 2004, www.foreignaf- fairs.org/20040301faessay83204/andrei-shleifer-daniel- Satter, David, Darkness at Dawn: the Rise of the Russian treisman/a-normal-country.html. Criminal State, Yale University Press, 2003. A Harvard economics professor (Schleifer) and an associ- A Russia specialist based in Washington traces the rise of ate professor of political science at the University of Cali- the Russian mafia and the economic chaos that followed the fornia, Los Angeles question the critical majority view of collapse of the Soviet Union. post-Soviet Russia.

Talbott, Strobe, The Russia Hand: A Memoir of Presi- Reports and Studies dential Diplomacy, Random House, 2002. A former deputy secretary of State and the Clinton ad- “The Russian Federation,” Brookings Institution, 2006, ministration’s top specialist on Russia provides a first-hand www.brookings.edu/reports/2006/10russia.aspx. account of President Clinton’s handling of Boris Yeltsin. A team of Brookings fellows and researchers studies the policies and realities of energy powerhouse Russia. Articles Bovt, Georgy, “Too Alien for Europe,” Russia Profile, Arbatov, Alexei, “Are things really so bad?” Russia in May 7, 2008, www.russiaprofile.org/page.php?pageid= Global Affairs, Aug. 8, 2007, www.foreignaffairs.org/2004 Politics&articleid=a1210173951. 0301faessay83204/andrei-shleifer-daniel-treisman/a-normal- A Russian economist says the relationship between country.html. and Moscow has reached a stalemate. A member of the Russian Academy of Science downplays fears the U.S. and Russia are heading for a new Cold War. Nikitin, Alexander, “The End of ‘Post-Soviet’ Space,” Chatham House Briefing Papers, February 2007, Belton, Catherine, “Anointed enigma: The quiet rise of www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/3406_bpnis0207.pdf. Dmitry Medvedev,” FT.com, Feb. 28, 2008, www.ft.com/ An environmental activist gives his view of the changing po- cms/72ede4b6-e626-11dc-8389-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid= litical orientation of the newly independent former Soviet states. 03d100e8. A Financial Times correspondent details how Medvedev Robertson, Lord, “NATO’S Transformation,” NATO News rose to the presidency. Articles, Nov. 28, 2003, www.nato.int/docu/articles/ 2003/a031027a.htm. Levy, Clifford, “Putin Protégé Secures Election Victory,” The North Atlantic Alliance’s then-secretary general outlines The New York Times, March 3, 2008, p. A1. NATO’s policy on enlargement in the post-Soviet era.

502 CQ Researcher The Next Step: Additional Articles from Current Periodicals

Energy Foreign Affairs, July/August 2007, p. 59. The reemergence of non-democratic great powers such as “Energy Dialogue With Russia ‘Fundamental’: EU,” Agence Russia and China — which now operate under authoritarian, France-Presse, Oct. 2, 2007. capitalist regimes — could lead to a new Cold War. The European Union’s energy commissioner has suggested that the EU must reach energy deals with Russia. Grose, Thomas K., “The Bear Living Next Door,” U.S. News & World Report, Sept. 24, 2007, p. 38. Abdurasulov, Abdujalil, “Russia’s Gazprom Settles Ukraine Recent military muscle-flexing by Russia suggests it could Gas Row, But Profits Could Dip,” The Christian Science be trying to incite another Cold War with the West. Monitor, March 14, 2008, p. 4. Gazprom has struck a deal that would cut out middlemen President Medvedev and give it more access to Ukraine’s industrial gas customers. “The Name’s Dmitry,” The Economist, March 1, 2008. Birch, Douglas, “Another Russian Energy Deal With Europe Big problems could arise if Vladimir Putin, in his new role Adds to Western Worries About Potential Oil Weapon,” The as prime minister, decides to meddle in the affairs of new , Jan. 25, 2008. President Dmitry Medvedev. Recent energy deals suggest Russia could be using its vast oil and gas resources to interfere in the affairs of neigh- Chivers, C.J., “Hard Tasks Lie Ahead for Protégé in Russia,” boring countries. The New York Times, May 7, 2008, p. A6. Dmitry Medvedev is facing many political and economic Stinson, Jeffrey, “Russia Increasingly Filling Demand for challenges at the beginning of his presidency, such as steep Nuclear Technology,” USA Today, June 4, 2007, p. 6A. inflation, pervasive corruption, a weak judicial system and Russia has become an aggressive seller of nuclear technology poor public health. as demand for atomic energy has been increasing worldwide. Matthews, Owen, and Anna Nemtsova, “From a Mouse Human Rights to a Tsar,” Newsweek, March 3, 2008. Generational and personality differences suggest Dmitry Chivers, C.J., “Slain Reporter’s Final Article Points to Torture Medvedev may one day veer off the path paved by his pre- in Chechnya,” The New York Times, Oct. 13, 2006, p. A3. decessor, Vladimir Putin. A Russian tabloid newspaper has published the final article of its slain correspondent, Anna Politkovskaya, along with Rodriguez, Alex, “Medvedev’s Russia Likely to Stay Putin’s,” transcripts of videotaped torture sessions of Chechens that Chicago Tribune, March 1, 2008, p. A1. she obtained. Dmitry Medvedev is not an exact duplicate of Vladimir Putin, but Putin’s Russia is likely to maintain its character Finn, Peter, “Deportation of Uzbek by Russia is Criticized,” for the foreseeable future. The Washington Post, Oct. 27, 2006, p. A16. Russia has deported a suspected Uzbek terrorist despite an CITING CQ RESEARCHER order from the European Court of Human Rights to suspend the deportation pending a review. Sample formats for citing these reports in a bibliography include the ones listed below. Preferred styles and formats Stack, Megan K., “Ethnic Violence Surges in Russia,” Los vary, so please check with your instructor or professor. Angeles Times, May 1, 2008, p. A3. Russia has seen a dramatic increase in neo-Nazi attacks MLA STYLE aimed primarily at Caucasian and Central Asian immigrants. Jost, Kenneth. “Rethinking the Death Penalty.” CQ Researcher New Cold War 16 Nov. 2001: 945-68. APA STYLE Brzezinski, Zbigniew, “How to Avoid a New Cold War,” Time, June 18, 2007, p. 44. Jost, K. (2001, November 16). Rethinking the death penalty. Russia’s war in Chechnya and the United States’ war in CQ Researcher, 11, 945-968. Iraq are the biggest reasons for recent tensions between the two countries. CHICAGO STYLE Jost, Kenneth. “Rethinking the Death Penalty.” CQ Researcher, Gat, Azar, “The Return of Authoritarian Great Powers,” November 16, 2001, 945-968.

Available online: www.cqresearcher.com June 6, 2008 503 In-depth Reports on Issues in the News

Are you writing a paper? Need backup for a debate? Want to become an expert on an issue? For 80 years, students have turned to CQ Researcher? for in-depth reporting on issues in the news. Reports on a full range of political and social issues are now available. Following is a selection of recent reports:

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