Overview of data and evidence for West Oxfordshire
29 October 2013 Margaret Melling, District Data Analysis Service This presentation
• Introduction • Changing population • Housing • Local economy • Summary • Finding out more Introduction
• Census survey carried out 27 March 2011 • 97% of residents completed the survey in West Oxfordshire (compared with 94% nationally) • Data started to be released July 2012, major releases planned over next 6 months+ including travel to work (flow) data • Likely to be the last major census survey • This overview combines census findings with data from other sources CHANGING POPULATION Over past 30 years, population in West Oxfordshire has increased by 23,100 (+28%)
Total resident population – Census mid year estimates 2011 1981 to 2011 160,000 Oxford +16%
Cherwell +30% 140,000 South Oxfordshire +15%
Vale of White Horse +17% 120,000 104,800 West Oxfordshire +28% 100,000 81,700 +23,100 80,000 equivalent to just 1981 1991 2001 2011 under the size of Witney (27,500) Source: ONS Mid year estimates from nomis and Census 2011 Much lower population growth in rural West Oxfordshire compared with other districts
Change in population living in households* Census 2001 to Census 2011
7,487 7,130 rural wards urban wards
3,582 2,840 3,081 2,460 2,020 1,331
Cherwell South Oxfordshire Vale of White Horse West Oxfordshire
*excluding population in communal establishments (military bases, care homes, student accommodation) Rural / Urban definition based on 2001 Census URBAN includes Carterton, Witney, Ducklington ONS Census 2001 table KS02, Census 2011 table KS102 from neighbourhood statistics; ONS Rural Definition of wards (2004) Alvescot and Filkins 88 2001 to 2011 change in Ascott and Shipton 9 population living in Bampton and Clanfield 50 Brize Norton and Shilton 80 households Burford 7 Carterton North East 3,059
Carterton North West -182 • Growth in Carterton Carterton South -127 Chadlington and Churchill 16 and Witney Charlbury and Finstock -148 • Chipping Norton 394 Household population Ducklington 47 in 6 wards has declined Eynsham and Cassington 19 Freeland and Hanborough 68 Population in Hailey, Minster Lovell and Leafield 161 households Kingham, Rollright and Enstone -19 Change 2001 Milton-under-Wychwood 71 to 2011 North Leigh 7 Standlake, Aston and Stanton Harcourt 243
Stonesfield and Tackley-12 The Bartons 39 Witney Central 1,395 Witney East 3,303
Witney North -196 Witney South 216 Witney West -28 258 Source: ONS Census 2001 table KS02, Census 2011 table KS102 Woodstock and Bladon Growth in older population continues a long term trend, number of young people overall remains at similar level
+82% West Oxfordshire District aged 60+ 1981 to 2011 30,000
25,000
20,000 -2% 15,000 aged 0 to 19 age 0 to 19 age 60+ 1981 to 2011 Count of population of Count 10,000
5,000
0
Source: ONS Mid year estimates from nomis Recent growth in 0-4 year olds
West Oxfordshire 8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000 age 0 to 4 age 5 to 9 age 10 to 14 3,000 Count of population of Count 2,000
1,000
0
Source: ONS Mid year estimates from nomis Number of oldest old expected to continue to increase
West Oxfordshire number and percent of residents aged 85+ 5,000 4.0%
4,500 3.5% 4,400 4,000 3.0% 3,500 2.5% 3,000
2,500 2,800 2.0% aged 85+ percent 2,000 2,000 1.5% 1,500 1.0% 1,000 1,300 0.5% 500 800
0 0.0% 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021
Source: ONS Mid year estimates from nomis and interim 2011 subnational population projections Burford 41% Ageing trend affects some Ascott and Shipton 33% Charlbury and Finstock 32% communities more than others Milton-under-Wychwood 31% Freeland and Hanborough 31% Woodstock and Bladon 31% Percent of people Eynsham and Cassington 30% aged 60 and over Bampton and Clanfield 30% Hailey, Minster Lovell and Leafield 30% North Leigh 30% Chadlington and Churchill 30% Kingham, Rollright and Enstone 29% Brize Norton and Shilton 29% Stonesfield and Tackley 28% Ducklington 27% Chipping Norton 27% Standlake, Aston and Stanton… 27% The Bartons 26% Witney North 25% Witney Central 25% Witney South 25% Alvescot and Filkins 25% Carterton North West 21% Witney East 17% Carterton South 16% Witney West 13% Carterton North East 8% Source: ONS Census 2011 table KS102 Disability free life expectancy above average for men
Source: ONS Sub-national Disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) for men and women at age 16 and at age 65: England, 2007–2009 (experimental statistics) At risk of isolation?
West Oxfordshire district People resident in care People aged 85+ homes (with and without 878 2,740 nursing) 688 2,006 +734 +190
2001 2011 2001 2011
People with limiting People aged providing 20 long term illness* 15,149 or more hours per week 2,818 13,057 unpaid care +2,092 2,019 +799
2001 2011 2001 2011
*Census 2001 = people with limiting long term illness; Census 2011 = people with day-to-day activities limited a little + activities limited a lot
ONS Census 2001 table KS08, QS606; Census 2011 table KS301, from neighbourhood statistics Largest BME group remains “Other White”
Irish 708
Gypsy or Irish Traveller 182 West Oxfordshire Other White 3,584 Number of people in ethnic minority groups Mixed 1,263 2001 to 2011 Indian 354 2001
Pakistani 95 2011
Bangladeshi 152
Chinese 310
Other Asian 513
African 270
Caribbean 109 51% of ethnic Other Black 58 minority population Arab 53 live in rural wards Other Ethnic Group 133
Sources: ONS Census 2001 table UV09; Census 2011 table QS201 West Oxfordshire residents born outside UK from Germany, Ireland, Poland, South Africa and USA
Count by country of birth (selected countries) West Oxfordshire
764 781 748 2001 2011 604 599 565 568 450
318 309 211 138166 48 80 7
France Germany India Ireland Poland Romania South Africa United States
Sources: ONS Census 2001 table UV08; Census 2011 table QS203 HOUSING Lowest cost market housing around 9 times lower quartile earnings
Ratio of lower quartile house price to lower quartile earnings
14.00
12.00 South Oxfordshire 10.00 Vale of White Horse
8.00 West Oxfordshire
6.00
4.00 Q3 2012 lower quartile house in West 2.00 Oxfordshire £195,000
0.00
Source: gov.uk live tables on housing market, table 596 West Oxfordshire has below average % households with 1 or 2 bedrooms (31%)
Households by number of bedrooms Census 2011 as % of all households
1 Bedroom 2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5 or More Bedrooms 50% 1 or 2 bedrooms 40% 40% 38% 34% 32% 43% 31% 30%
20%
10%
0% England Cherwell Oxford South Vale of White West Oxfordshire Horse Oxfordshire
Profile of households by number of bedrooms available for the first time from the Census. Source: ONS Census 2011 table QS411 Increase in proportion of households in private rented accommodation
Percent of households that are rented privately 2001 to 2011
Source: ONS 2001 KS18, 2011 KS402EW LOCAL ECONOMY Claimant count continuing to decline
Claimant count September1983 to September 2013
February 1985 January 1993 2,849 2,887
Sept 2013 780
Claimant count is number of people claiming Job Seeker Allowance and National Insurance credits. Not an official measure of unemployment DWP from nomis Decline in managerial jobs and growth in professional occupations – similar to national trend Occupation of people aged 16-74 in employment 2001 to 2011 West Oxfordshire 1. Managers, Directors and Senior -16% Officials Science, research, engineering 2. Professional Occupations +81% Health professionals 3. Associate Professional and Teaching and Technical Occupations educational 4. Administrative and Secretarial Business, media and Occupations public service
5. Skilled Trades Occupations Caring personal service 6. Caring, Leisure and Other Service Occupations +45% Child care 7. Sales and Customer Service Animal care Occupations Leisure and travel 8. Process, Plant and Machine Hairdressers Operatives 2001 Housekeeping
9. Elementary Occupations 2011 Cleaning
- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Sources: ONS Census 2001 table KS12; Census 2011 table KS608 Care worker and home carer vacancies remain hard to fill
6115 : Care assistants and home carers unfilled vacancies 600
500
400
300 South Oxfordshire Vale of White Horse 200 West Oxfordshire
100
0 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 May-10 May-11 May-12
Sources: Jobcentre Plus from nomis Increase in self employment
% self employed as % of economically active England 2011 average 20% 2001 2011 15%
10% 17% 16% 14% 15% 14% 14% 14% 5% 11%
0% England South East Oxfordshire Cherwell Oxford South Vale of White West Oxfordshire Horse Oxfordshire
Sources: ONS Census 2001 table UV28; Census 2011 table Q601, from neighbourhood statistics Increase in working from home
Working from home as % of those in employment England 2011 average 20% 2001 2011 15%
10% 15% 12% 13% 14% 5% 11% 12% 11%
0% England South East Cherwell Oxford South Vale of White West Oxfordshire Horse Oxfordshire
Sources: ONS Census 2011 table CT0015 Number of cars owned in West Oxfordshire has more than doubled since 1981
90,000 1981 1991 2001 2011 Households Cars 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Cherwell Oxford South Vale of West Oxfordshire White Oxfordshire Horse
Total number of cars 1981 2011 1981 to 2011 West Oxfordshire 29,889 65,824 35,935 120%
Source: ONS Census 2011 table KS404 1981 to 2001 analysis originally carried out by Oxfordshire County Council, Transport planning team Summary Communities • Majority of population growth in Carterton and Witney • Ageing population continues long term trend – especially in rural areas Housing • Lowest cost housing around 9 times lowest earnings • Lower % of dwellings with 1 or 2 bedrooms than other districts • Increase in private rented accommodation Local economy • Claimant count continues to decline • Decline in % managerial jobs, increase in professional and technical • Increase in self employment and part time working • Increase in working from home, increase in number of cars LOCAL PROFILES Chipping Norton – a changing population
Change in population by economic activity, 2001 - 2011 All residents aged 16 to 74 years by NS-SEC, 2011 Part-time employee +41
Full-time employee +117
Self-employed +170
Unemployed +26
FT student +85
Retired +123
Looking after home or family -73
Long term sick or disabled -63
Other economically inactive -20
Change in population in employment aged 16-74 by method of travel to work, 2001 - 2011
Proportion of residents whose day-to-day activities are limited because of a long-term health problem or disability (2011) Chipping Norton – increasing unemployment?
Claimant residence-based rate February 2004 to September 2013 64 - Percent of population population Percent of 16 aged
Claimant count is number of people claiming Job Seeker Allowance and National Insurance credits. Residence-based rate is the official measure below national/regional level. It expresses the number of claimants as a percentage of the population aged 16-64, sourced from the mid-year population estimates. Not an official measure of unemployment DWP from nomis FINDING OUT MORE.. • Source data can be downloaded from www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk and www.nomisweb.co.uk • Visualisation tools available on ONS website www.ons.gov.uk/census • Data for Oxfordshire and visualisation tools at insight.oxfordshire.gov.uk • Health profile from Public Health England http://www.apho.org.uk/?QN=P_HEALTH_PROFILES • Analysis of data for West Oxfordshire www.oxford.gov.uk/districtdataservice