MARKET OVERVIEW – SATCOM FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS
DIMITRI BUCHS
UNOOSA / ITU TECH ENVOY OFFICE EVENT ON SATELLITE CONNECTIVITY
JULY 2021 EUROCONSULT – WHO WE ARE
600 clients in 50 countries – 8 global locations
Governmental & Financial institutions UK international organizations & insurance Canada France USA Japan
Hong Kong
Singapore Service Satellite End users providers operators
Australia
Satellite & equipment Launch service Countries in which clients are based manufacturers providers Office locations Representatives
SATCOM FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS © Euroconsult 2021 2 EUROCONSULT – WHO WE ARE
Market studies Continuous data-gathering Government programs 25-years historic data Feasibility studies 600 clients 10-year forecasts CUSTOMIZED Program monitoring MARKET in 50 countries Proprietary databases CONSULTING Business strategy INTELLIGENCE Strategic reports SERVICES Public policy 8 global locations
Deep dives Market insights Technical or strategic Business deals Customized & Tailored World-class speakers High-level programs Executive-level networking EXECUTIVE THEMATIC User driven or guided SUMMITS TRAINING
SATCOM FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS © Euroconsult 2021 3 UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS: ADDRESSABLE MARKET
2020 ADDRESSABLE MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL SAT. SAT. BROADBAND USERS BROADBAND
2020 93 697M Emerging 46% 3,561M 33 Unconnected population 2020 2029 2015 43M 110M 20M 17 Advanced 10 9% 697M Population addressable by satellite Population Satellite broadband users 2029 2020 addressable by satellite
0.5% • Of the 7.8 billion world population, 46% remains unconnected, mostly in 43M developing regions; Satellite broadband users • Satellite penetration of the addressable market: ~6%. • 43 million people connected to satellite broadband services via satellite (~1% of the world’s connected population). • Total number of satellite users to be multiplied by 2.5 by 2029; 90% of new Share out of 7.8 billion % total population satellite users in emerging regions.
SATCOM FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS © Euroconsult 2021 4 UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS: SATCOM MARKET
SATCOM SOLUTIONS CAPACITY DEMAND BY APPLICTION (TBPS)
• Three satellite solutions are used to address the UBA market; • Consumer broadband is dominant in advanced economies while Wi-Fi hotspots are most frequently used in less developed regions (lower cost of services, ability to share costs among many users...). • Capacity demand to be multiplied by 8 by 2029 7 Tbps • Revenues (service + capacity) to reach > US$17b by the end of the decade.
SATCOM FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS © Euroconsult 2021 5 THE NEW SPACE FACTOR
Thinking space business out of the box
NEW SPACE TRADITIONAL SPACE
Low-cost Model High-cost, High-quality
Software Driven Hardware Driven
Application Oriented VS. Techno Push
Standardization Customization
Higher Tech. and Business Risks Risk averse
Source:
SATCOM FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS 6 © Euroconsult 2021 STRUCTURAL DRIVERS: TECHNOLOGY PUSH VS MARKET PULL
• More productive • Connectivity satellite infrastructure “anywhere, anytime”· Changing Changing • Enhanced payload flexibility • Nonlinear viewer market T technology habits M • Reusable launchers demands • Increasing data • Flat panel antennas usage
• New entrants • Managed services (NGSO) Changing • Revenue share Changing • Vertical integration competitive • Data centric business T landscape • Terrestrial network models M expansion • Co-investment
SATCOM FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS © Euroconsult 2021 7 ACCELERATED CHANGES IN THE ECOSYSTEM
Commercial 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 deployment
GEO HTS 1.0 The new norm: “multi-layered” environment First payloads - fixed design - <10Gbps GEO HTS 2.0
Fixed design - mostly <50Gbps GEO HTS 2.5
Partially “flex” - dozens to hundreds of Gbps GEO HTS 3.0 & VHTS
Up to “fully flex” - hundreds of Gbps BB NGSO CONSTELLATION
Up to “fully flex” Tbps
SATCOM FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS 8 © Euroconsult 2021 ENABLING LOW COST AND HIGH THROUGHPUT CAPABILITY
SPACE SEGMENT COST BENCHMARK – CAPEX* PER MBPS PER MONTH (in US$)
REGULAR SATELLITES >$350 • Capacity: 1-3 Gbps • Capex: $180-200m
10x decrease Increasing throughput
HTS - CLASS I >$40 • Capacity: 10-50 Gbps • Capex: $200-350m
HTS-CLASS II >$20 • Capacity: 50-150 Gbps • Capex: $350-450m
HTS - CLASS III >$10 • Capacity: 150-350 Gbps NGSO-HTS • Capex: $500-600m • Capacity: Multiple Tbps • Capex: $1 to $4 billion
VHTS-CLASS 10x decrease >$4 • Capacity: 500-1000 Gbps • Capex: $500m-700m
2005-2010 2010-2020 COMING POST 2021 FIRST COMMERCIAL DEPLOYMENTS * Including satellite and launch SATCOM FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS © Euroconsult 2021 CAPACITY ARPU TREND FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS
$/Mbps/month
-42%
-38% -25%
SATCOM FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS © Euroconsult 2021 NGSO CONSTELLATIONS: DEPLOYMENT STATUS
CONSTELLATION DEPLOYMENT STATUS
0%-10% 10%-30% 30%-60% 60-80% 80%-100%
Concept studies. No Manufacturing contract <25% of the constellation Full deployment (first industrial contract in place. Ongoing deployed. First BIY >25% of the generation) signed, except potential development milestone met for constellation deployed test satellites spectrum
Amazon (Kuiper) ~250 launched to date Oneweb >1,700 launched to date SpaceX (Starlink)
Telesat LEO
SES mPower*
*Current O3b constellation in service Source: Euroconsult research
SATCOM FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS © Euroconsult 2021 11 SATELLITE ON A MISSION: BRIDGE THE DIGITAL DIVIDE
SATCOM FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS © Euroconsult 2021 12 TOP 5 CONDITIONS TO UNLOCK THE BROADBAND OPPORTUNITY
TERMINAL NETWORK ADOPTION OF NEW INTEGRATION SALES MODEL ENABLER Closer integration of satellite Operators to use new sales Advances in user connectivity in the networks models (subsidize equipment, terminal technology and distribution channels of revenue share, co-investment) to and cost points terrestrial ISPs stimulate the market take-up
01 03 05
02 04 06
SUCCESS OF NGSO SUSTAINABILITY LOWER PROJECTS IN USO MISSIONS COST BASE Multiple NGSO broadband Continued growth in Drops in the cost base of satellite constellations reaching full government support through capacity to be translated into operational status USO funding/initiatives lower capacity price
SATCOM FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND ACCESS © Euroconsult 2021 13 Muchas Gracias Danke Дякую Merci 谢谢 Thank you спасибо شكرا Շնորհակալություն ありがとうございました
France · USA · Canada · Japan · Singapore
[email protected] July 9th, 2021 Emerging technology for connectivity
CHINA SATCOM PROFILE China Satcom (China Satellite Communications Co. Ltd.), subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) Satellite Operator with 14 Satellites in orbit
By: Chen Wensheng Vice President China Satellite Communications Co., Ltd. Airborne and Maritime Service
I n t e r n e t
Main applications of VOIP Media maritime services + + Video IoT Internet Service for Passenger Cockpit Communication
Providing enterprise customers with various services via maritime management platform： Vessel status, track, location, IP traffic, hull and cabin monitoring and other IoT services. Emergency Communication
E m e r g e n c y Communication P l a t f o r m
Satcom Terminal
Aero Terminal
Fixed Bag-pack
Vehicle based in mobile and fix
Terrestrial Terminal Opportunity for Satellite Connectivity
Technology Innovation bring satellite more flexibility
From Space Capacity Only to Vertical Application
Satellite Business Platform based design connect people easier
Create product differentiation THANK YOU Opportunities of Satellite Connectivity
Moderated by Jorge Ciccorossi Space Systems Coordination - ITU Facts and Figures on Space Services - 2021
Space Economy 50+ years of Space $ Regulation 400 Billions Today Source: spacefoundation.org 1.1 Trillions by 2040 68 Members States Source : Morgan and Stanley with access to Space Resources
1700 Satellite Networks Operating
Multicountry Projects to 4 THz Global the Moon and Beyond Spectrum Coordinated and Recorded
99.94% Spectrum Free of Harmful Interference NGSO Large Reported to ITU Constellations for Broadband Applications < 0.1 % Interference
Variation per year Sputnik-1 (URRS) Telstar-1 (USA) HTS GSO Cubesats
1957 2021 We know:
4.1 Billions people connected to internet (53 %) 3.7 Billions people not yet connected
Technology available Today:
➢ Satellite fleet with Global Coverage - GSO deployed since early 60’s - NGSO Large Constellations emerging
➢ Terrestrial: 3G, 4G, 5G (IMT), WiFi, Fixed Services, Fibre Optic We’ll discuss:
4.1 Billions people connected to internet (53 %) 3.7 Billions people not yet connected Why ?
What else can we do Technology available Today: to connect the unconnected? - Spectrum availability ➢ Satellite fleet with Global Coverage - New Technologies - GSO deployed since early 60’s - Licensing - NGSO Large Constellations emerging - Policies - Regulations - Incentives ➢ Terrestrial: 3G, 4G, 5G (IMT), WiFi, - Investment Fixed Services, Fibre Optic - Affordability - … Dominic HAYES EUROPEAN COMMISSION European Union Space Programme
09 July 2021 DEFIS EU Secure Space-based Connectivity System Europe must launch a third major space project: a connectivity project through a constellation in low orbit making it possible to put an end to coverage dead zones in Europe
Ensure European strategic autonomy, resilience and technological sovereignty
Strengthen Europe’s ability to be a global leader
Fuel an innovative and competitive European industrial ecosystem 2 DEFIS A Multi-orbital Architecture
• Based on existing EU GEO capabilities • Adds LEO/MEO components • Governmental and Commercial applications • Initially European and African coverage, then global • Emphasis on security GEO GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT LEO LOW EARTH ORBIT • Designed-in, not add-on Q TERRESTRIAL NETWORK MEO MEDIUM EARTH ORBIT • Quantum technologies 3 DEFIS3 Helping to Ease Connectivity Gaps
• Even though focussed on European markets and users, the European system will have spare global capacity • Adds to growing list of space assets serving internet access markets • GEO component proven cost effective solution for internet access • MEO/LEO adds low latency/capacity enhancements • Not needed for all requirements • Receiver cost critical to success • Currently large GEO – MEO/LEO cost gap • Regulators can help by easing access for satellite signal
4 ‘landing rights’ DEFIS4 City quality Internet everywhere
9th July 2021 Connectivity gap and the LEO (Low Earth Orbit) satellite solution
Half of the World’s population and Optimal solution with global LEO satellite key market verticals lack high- coverage offering terrestrial fiber quality speed internet*
*Source: UN, Global Rural Urban Mapping Project, GAMA, Marine Traffic, Cisco Virtual Network Index, 2017; Statista, ITU, GSMA, NSR, Telesat analysis; Note: ‘Urban areas’ have 300,000 or more inhabitants
| Proprietary & Confidential 2 Telesat Lightspeed: a highly innovative LEO global system
√ 298 satellite constellation with optical inter-satellite links, full global coverage from pole to pole
• Polar Orbit • Inclined Orbit √ 78 polar satellites in 6 orbit planes at 1,015 km and 220 inclined satellites in 20 orbit planes at 1,325 km
√ ~35 times closer to Earth than traditional satellites for fibre- quality low latency
√ ~4 GHz Ka-band spectrum (both user terminals and gateways) and ~135,000 agile beams to flexibly connect small Inter-satellite links to very large sites (few Mbps to multiple Gbps links) Payload on- global connectivity board √ Multiple satellites and ground nodes for resilient, always-on, processing high capacity quick and economic connectivity to rural and remote areas
√ Flexible, state-of-the-art design delivers most competitive Ka-band unit economics Gateway and user CNOS links orchestration √ Programmable Scalable architecture, addition of satellites will increase Direct network capacity deliverable by the network radiating Landing antennas Stations (i.e. √ Orchestration via Constellation Network Operating System flexible coverage gateways) (CNOS)
3 How to facilitate and incentivize deployment of satellite systems
▲ Governmental support schemes towards universal connectivity via satellite ▲ Streamline the licensing process – no artificial barriers to entry ▲ Blanket license for user terminals with similar technical/operational characteristics (ubiquitous VSATs and ESIM – Earth Stations In Motion): i.e. no terminal-by-terminal licenses ▲ Reasonable spectrum prices (potential use of +4GHz of spectrum in Ka-band) ▲ Allow circulation of duly licensed foreign visiting terminals on a non-interference, non- protection basis ▲ Availability of sufficient spectrum (e.g. 28GHz band) ▲ Support for related WRC-23 Agenda Items that will facilitate the deployment of these emerging satellite technologies (e.g. WRC-23 AI 1.16)
4 Laura Roberti Telesat Director, Spectrum and www.telesat.com Market Access 160 Elgin Street, Suite 2100 [email protected] Ottawa, Ontario, Canada +41 798332996 K2P 2P7 tel: +1 613 748 0123 9 July 2021 How to facilitate and incentivise deployment of satellite systems
By Georges kwizera CTO-Rwanda Space Agency GAP
Source: GSMA Report One SES sat coverage map Regulators
? Satellite operators
Players
Consumers