Federal Aviation Administration
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts
May 2014
FAA Commercial Space Transportation (AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC)
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts
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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 1 COMSTAC 2014 COMMERCIAL GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT LAUNCH DEMAND FORECAST ...... 5 46.."3: 5 )*4503: 0' 5)& 3&1035 6 '03&$"45 .&5)0%0-0(: 7 $0.45"$ $0..&3$*"- (40 -"6/$) %&."/% '03&$"45 3&46-54 8 "EESFTTBCMF WT 6OBEESFTTBCMF 8 .BTT $MBTTFT %VBM.BOJGFTUJOH 11 /FBS5FSN %FNBOE 'PSFDBTU 1 $PNQBSJTPO XJUI 1SFWJPVT $0.45"$ 'PSFDBTUT 14 $0.45"$ %&."/% 130+&$5*0/ 74 "$56"- -"6/$)&4 3&"-*;&% 15 'BDUPST 5IBU "GGFDU 4BUFMMJUF -BVODI 3FBMJ[BUJPO 15 1SPKFDUJOH "DUVBM 4BUFMMJUFT -BVODIFE 6TJOH B 3FBMJ[BUJPO 'BDUPS 16 '"$5034 5)"5 .": "''&$5 '6563& %&."/% 17 %FNBOE GPS 4BUFMMJUF 4FSWJDFT 17 (MPCBMJ[BUJPO 17 .PCJMJUZ 18 .BSLFU 4FHNFOUT 18 4BUFMMJUF 5FDIOPMPHJFT 4QFDUSVN -JNJUBUJPOT BOE 0SCJUBM 4MPU -JNJUBUJPOT 21 /FX "QQMJDBUJPOT 22 0O0SCJU 4FSWJDJOH 2 $PNQFUJUJPO GSPN -&0 4ZTUFNT 2 )PTUFE 1BZMPBET 24 -BVODI 4FSWJDF 1SPWJEFST 26 .VMUJBVODI 4FSWJDF "HSFFNFOUT 27 $PPQFSBUJPO BOE 1BSUOFSTIJQT 27 (FPQPMJUJDBM *OnVFODFT PO -BVODI 7FIJDMF %FNBOE 28 *NQBDU PG *OUFSOBUJPOBM i(PWFSONFOU UP (PWFSONFOUw 4BUFMMJUF %FMJWFSZ JO 0SCJU 4BMFT 28 3FHVMBUPSZ &OWJSPONFOU 2 'JOBODJBM .BSLFUT 4QBDF *OTVSBODF 1 4611-&.&/5"3: 26&45*0//"*3& 3&46-54 1 2014 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION FORECAST FOR NON- GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITS ...... 34 */530%6$5*0/ 4 46.."3: 4 /(40 1":-0"% ."3,&5 4&(.&/54 $PNNFSDJBM 5FMFDPNNVOJDBUJPO 4BUFMMJUFT $PNNFSDJBM 3FNPUF 4FOTJOH 4BUFMMJUFT 47 $PNNFSDJBM $BSHP BOE $SFX 5SBOTQPSUBUJPO 4FSWJDFT 55 0UIFS $PNNFSDJBMMZ -BVODIFE 4BUFMMJUFT 61 5FDIOPMPHZ 5FTU BOE %FNPOTUSBUJPO -BVODIFT 6 .*$304"5&--*5&4 64 4"5&--*5& "/% -"6/$) '03&$"45 53&/%4 68 -"6/$) 7&)*$-&4 5:1*$"--: 64&% '03 /(40 .*44*0/4 72
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List of Tables
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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NGSO Launch Actual NGSO Launch Forecast Number of Launches
GSO Launch Actual GSO Launch Forecast
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GSO Launch Actual 2014 GSO Launch Number of Satellites/Launches Forecast
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts
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2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
COMSTAC 2013 COMMERCIAL GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT LAUNCH DEMAND FORECAST
SUMMARY The $PNNeSDJBM 4QBDe TSBOsQPSUBUJPO AEWJsPSZ $PNNJUUee $0.4TA$ GPS Uhe 0GmDe PG $PNNeSDJBM 4QBDe TSBOsQPSUBUJPO PG Uhe FeEeSBM AWJBUJPO AENJOJsUSBUJPO FAA A4T DPNQJMeE Uhe 21 $PNNeSDJBM (ePsZODhSPOPVs 0SCJU (40 -BVODh %eNBOE FPSeDBsU Uhe 3eQPSU ThJs ZeBS’s 3eQPSU Js Uhe 22nd BnnVBM GPSeDBsU PG HMPCBM deNBnd GPS DPNNeSDJBM (40 sBUeMMJUes Bnd MBVnDhes BddSessBCMe CZ Uhe 64 sQBDe MBVnDh JndVsUSZUhBU Js MBVnDhes PQen UP JnUeSnBUJPnBMMZ DPNQeUJUJWe JnDMVdJnH 64 MBVnDh seSWJDe QSPDVSeNenUPWeS Uhe neYU Uen ZeBSs The 3eQPSU QSPWJdes B deUBJMed BnBMZsJs PG sBUeMMJUes sDhedVMed GPS MBVnDh Jn Uhe neYU UhSee ZeBSs Bnd B CSPBdeS GPSeDBsU PG MBVnDh deNBnd GPS Uhe sVCseRVenU seWen ZeBSs The 3eQPSU Js JnUended UP BssJsU FAA A4T Jn SesPVSDe QMBnnJnH GPS MJDensJnH Bnd Jn eGGPSUs UP GPsUeS DPNNeSDJBM sQBDe MBVnDh DBQBCJMJUZ Jn Uhe 6nJUed 4UBUes
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2014 Satellite Demand Forecast Number of Satellites/Launches 2014 Launch Demand Forecast
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2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
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2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
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Actual Forecast % of Total Avg. Total 2014 2014 2014 to to to 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 ACPWe 5 4 LH 62 587 1 781187 8888 8282 6 4 21 5 4 LH 41 582465 4847766777 6 6 28 2 5 4 2 LH 4787 576 6586656455 565625 #eMPX 2 5 LH 2261 114122 25 2511 Total 17 21 18 23 22 22 17 21 16 18 25 24 23 22 23 23 22 23 23 226 23 100%
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
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2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
Near-Term Demand Forecast TBCMe 8 shPXs Uhe sBUeMMJUes QSPKeDUed UP Ce MBVnDhed Jn Uhe neYU UhSee ZeBSs The QSPKeDUJPns GPS 214 UP 216 shPX Bn JnDSeBse Jn Uhe nVNCeS PG sBUeMMJUes UP Ce MBVnDhed PWeS Uhe QSeWJPVs UhSee ZeBSs 21121
TaCle 8 $ommerDial (40 4atellite /earTerm .aniGest 2014 2015 2016 Total 18 25 24 141 (4AT 14 (4-7 %. A#4 2A FalDon 14/ 6T#% #eloX 2 5 LH %. A#4 A FalDon %. 4atNeY 7 FalDon %. 4atNeY FalDon
658 %. AthenaFJdVs Ariane 5 %. A34AT 2 Ariane 5 %. ANa[onas 4# Ariane 5 %. ANa[onas 4A Ariane 5 %. (4AT 16 Ariane 5 %. #risat Ariane 5 %. 0QtVs 1 Ariane 5 %. )isQasat A(1 Ariane 5 #VlHaria4at FalDon 2 5 4 2 LH %. A34AT 1 Ariane 5 %. *ntelsat 4 Ariane 5 ThaiDoN 8 FalDon %. (4AT 15 Ariane 5 %. 4LZ .eYiDo 1 Ariane 5 +$4AT 15 T#% ThaJDoN 6 FalDon +$4AT 16 T#% 1alaQa & T#% *ntelsat 6 T#% 484 TVrLsat 4A 1roton . %. 4iDral 2 Ariane 5 %. %4/ 1 Ariane 5 Asiasat 8 FalDon %. Thor 7 Ariane 5 .eYsat 2 Ariane 5 Asiasat 6 FalDon Amos 6 FalDon 4&4 1 FalDon 4 21 5 4 LH TVrLNen 1 FalDon +$4AT 14 FalDon Telstar 127 )**A 4&4 FalDon &Vtelsat # 1roton . .eYsat 1 1roton . TVrLsat 4# 1roton . 7811 %. A#4 2 Ariane 5 %. #A%3 7 Ariane 5 %. &Dhostar 97*** Ariane 5 %. Astra 5# Ariane 5 %. %ireDT7 15 Ariane 5 %. &Dhostar 9*9 Ariane 5 %. .&A4AT # Ariane 5 %. &Vtelsat 88# Ariane 5 %. *ntelsat 2& Ariane 5 %. *ntelsat Ariane 5 %. /#/ 1A Ariane 5 %. *ntelsat & Ariane 5 ACoWe 5 4 LH %. %ireDT7 14 Ariane 5 %. 4tar 0ne $4 Ariane 5 %. +aCirV 1 Ariane 5 &Vtelsat # ;enit 4- *nmarsat 5F2 1roton . %. /#/ 1# Ariane 5 Astra 2( 1roton . *nmarsat 5F 1roton . %. 4LZ #rasil 1 Ariane 5 *ntelsat 1 1roton . %. 4tar 0ne %1 Ariane 5 7iasat 2 T#% &Vtelsat 658A T#% *nmarsat 5F4
%. 1otential %Val.aniGested 4atellites 4atellite QroQosed not Zet identimed QVCliDlZ
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Comparison with Previous COMSTAC Forecasts The DVrrent GoreDast DontinVes the sliHht inDrease in aWeraHe annVal laVnDhes Gor the neYt ten Zears as seen in the 21 3eQort The aWeraHe nVmCer oG satellites Grom the 24 to 21 3eQorts Xas in a narroX ranHeCetXeen 25 and 218 satellites The 214 3eQort shoXs an aWeraHe oG 228 satellites to Ce laVnDhed eaDh Zear VnDhanHed Grom the 21 3eQort
The 21 3eQort QroKeDted 21 satellites to Ce laVnDhed in 21 The redVDtion to 16 satellites aDtVallZ laVnDhed in 21 reneDts
t 4atellite and laVnDh WehiDle teDhniDal issVes
t $hanHinH CVsiness Dlimate Gor seWeral oQerators Xho enDoVntered mnanDial issVes and t 3eDlassimDation oG seWeral laVnDhes as VnaddressaCle
FiHVre $omQarison oG AnnVal ForeDasts 2422 Number of Satellites
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
COMSTAC DEMAND PROJECTION VS. ACTUAL LAUNCHES REALIZED Factors That Affect Satellite Launch Realization t The demand Gor satellite laVnDhes is tZQiDallZ larHer than the nVmCer oG satellites that Xill aDtVallZ Ce laVnDhed in a Zear 4ome GaDtors that DontriCVte to the diGGerenDe CetXeen GoreDast and reali[ed laVnDhes are
t 4atellite teDhniDal issVes 4atellite manVGaDtVrers maZ haWe manVGaDtVrinH sVQQlier or DomQonent issVes that delaZ the deliWerZ oG a satellite 0nHroVnd and inorCit anomalies Dan aGGeDt the deliWerZ oG satellites Vnder DonstrVDtion Vntil neetXide issVes sVDh as DommonalitZ oG Qarts QroDesses and sZstems are resolWed %elaZs in deliWerZ oG sQaDeDraGt to the laVnDh site then imQaDt the sDhedVlinH oG laVnDhes t -aVnDh WehiDle teDhniDal issVes -aVnDh WehiDle manVGaDtVrers and laVnDh serWiDe QroWiders maZ haWe manVGaDtVrinH sVQQlier or DomQonent issVes that DaVse laVnDh delaZs 3eDoWerZ Grom laVnDh anomalies and GailVres Dan also siHnimDantlZ aGGeDt laVnDh sDhedVles %elaZs haWe a DasDadinH eGGeDt on sVCseRVent laVnDhes and some sDienDe missions haWe sQeDimD laVnDh XindoXs that iG missed maZ resVlt in lenHthZ delaZs and maniGest issVes t 8eather *nDlement Xeather inDlVdinH HroVnd Xinds niHht Xinds DloVd DoWer liHhtninH and oDean DVrrents oGten DaVse laVnDh delaZs thoVHh these are tZQiDallZ shortterm on the order oG daZs t 3anHe aWailaCilitZ issVes The laDL oG laVnDh ranHe aWailaCilitZ dVe to Qrioriti[ed HoWernment missions sDhedVle DonniDts Xith other laVnDh QroWiders laVnDh site maintenanDe and other ranHerelated issVes Dan DaVse laVnDh delaZs
t %ValmaniGestinH %ValmaniGestinH reRVires that tXo satellites are deliWered to the laVnDh site on time A delaZ on one satellite resVlts in a laVnDh delaZ Gor the other satellite and sVCseRVent satellites 1aZload DomQatiCilitZ issVes sVDh as mass mismatDh teDhniDal diGGerenDes and diGGerinH orCit insertion reRVirements Dan also DaVse delaZs
t #Vsiness issVes $orQorate reQrioriti[ation DhanHinH strateHies and marLets and inaCilitZ to oCtain mnanDinH maZ delaZ or DanDel satellite QroHrams hoXeWer this Dan Gree VQ laVnDh slots Gor other DVstomers
t 3eHVlatorZ issVes &YQort DomQlianDe F$$ or international liDensinH and GreRVenDZ Doordination Dan DaVse delaZs laVnDh WehiDle shiGts and satellite QroHram DanDellations 64 HoWernment QoliDZ reHardinH satellite and laVnDh WehiDle eYQort Dontrol Dan maLe it diGmDVlt Gor 64 satellite manVGaDtVrers and laVnDh WehiDle oQerators to XorL Xith international DVstomers
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Projecting Actual Satellites Launched Using a Realization Factor 0Wer the historZ oG this 3eQort the GoreDast demand Gor satellites and laVnDhes has almost alXaZs eYDeeded the nVmCer oG satellites and laVnDhes aDtVallZ aDDomQlished in eaDh oG the mrst three Zears oG a GoreDast Qeriod To Cetter estimate the nVmCer oG near term satellites that Xill Ce laVnDhed the nearterm demand is adKVsted CZ a ireali[ation GaDtorw This GaDtor is deriWed CZ DomQarinH GoreDast satellite laVnDhes Xith aDtVal satellites laVnDhed in the mWe Zears Qrior to the DVrrent 3eQort
The ranHe oG satellite laVnDhes eYQeDted to Ce reali[ed is DalDVlated CZ mVltiQlZinH the nearterm GoreDast CZ the hiHhest and loXest Wariations oG GoreDast WersVs aDtVal oWer the QreDedinH mWe Zears 4inDe 1 the aDtVal nVmCer oG satellites laVnDhed in the mrst Zear oG the GoreDast Xas 58 to 11 oG the GoreDast nVmCer Xith an aWeraHe oG 8 For the Qast mWe Zears the ranHe Xas 8 to 11 Xith an aWeraHe oG 1 #ased on this methodoloHZ Xhile 2 satellites are GoreDast Gor laVnDh in 214 the eYQeDted reali[ation Gor 214 is 16 to 22 satellites
The Donsistent oWerestimation illVstrates the iCoXXaWew eGGeDt oG the GoreDast sVrWeZ resQondents list satellites that Xere Qlanned to Ce laVnDhed the QreWioVs Zear CVt sliQQed into the sVCseRVent Zear XithoVt DomQensatinH Gor the sVCseRVent Zear’s satellite laVnDhes DonDVrrentlZ sliQQinH GorXard
The DalDVlation CeDomes less QreDise Gor the seDond oVtZear The GoreDast has almost alXaZs oWerestimated the aDtVal laVnDhes tXo Zears henDe 4inDe 1 the aDtVal reali[ation Gor the seDond oVtZear ranHed Grom 48 to 15 Xith an aWeraHe oG 77 For the Qast mWe Zears the ranHe Xas 68 to 15 Xith an aWeraHe oG 82 6sinH the same methodoloHZ Xhile 27 satellites are GoreDast to Ce laVnDhed in 215 the eYQeDted reali[ation Gor 215 is 18 to 28 satellites
FiHVre 1 3eali[ation FaDtor
Number of Satellites )istoriDal First :ear 4atellite %emand ForeDast ADtVal 4atellites -aVnDhed 21 4atellite %emand ForeDast 3eali[ation FaDtor
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
4inDe the laVnDh reali[ation GaDtor Xas added to the 3eQort in 22 the aDtVal nVmCer oG satellites laVnDhed has VsVallZ Gallen Xithin the laVnDh reali[ation ranHe demonstratinH the roCVstness oG the reali[ation GaDtor methodoloHZ
As shoXn in FiHVre 1 the 21 reQort GoreDast 2 satellites Gor laVnDh in 21 Xith a reali[ation ranHe oG 14 to 22 satellites 16 satellites Xere aDtVallZ laVnDhed in 21
FACTORS THAT MAY AFFECT FUTURE DEMAND .anZ marLet reHVlatorZ and mnanDial GaDtors aGGeDt DVrrent and GVtVre demand Gor DommerDial (40 satellite laVnDhes sVDh as Demand for Satellite Services
%emand Gor satellite serWiDes DontinVes to Ce stronH in Dertain reHions led CZ sVCstantial HroXth in Asia and solid HroXth in the .iddle &ast $entral Asia and 4oVth AmeriDa desQite VnDertain eDonomiD enWironments in the 6nited 4tates and &VroQe This HroXth Dan Ce attriCVted to
t inDreased HloCali[ation and interDonneDtiWitZ oG modern enterQrise DommVniDations esQeDiallZ the eYQansion into emerHinH marLets that laDL a mCerCased inGrastrVDtVre t imQroWed eDonomiD standards DreatinH an eYQanded middle Dlass Xith aWailaCle disDretionarZ inDomes t adoQtion oG Dommon QraDtiDes and standards
t inDreased dereHVlation oG the teleDommVniDations seDtor and the Vse oG neX GreRVenDies t deWeloQment oG DosteGGeDtiWe Qersonal moCile WoiDe data and CroadCand deWiDes t DonsVmer demand Gor datariDh Dontent sVDh as 6ltra)% and % T7 that Xill reRVire more CandXidth
t demand Gor aeronaVtiDal CroadCand eH 8iFi on DommerDial airDraGt t inDreased traWel and DVltVral inteHration t adoQtion oG DommerDial solVtions CZ HoWernments to sVQQlement deGense and militarZ DaQaCilities t reWolVtion in soGtXare aQQliDations DreatinH neX inGormation Qortals Gor DonsVmer
Globalization (roXth in teleDommVniDations and CroadDastinH marLets is CeinH driWen CZ an inDreasinH nVmCer oG mVltinational DomQanies Xith oGmDe hVCs and distriCVtion netXorLs sQread aDross the Xorld This enaCles DomQanies to oQerate HloCallZ Xhile CeinH QerDeiWed as an inteHral Qart oG the loDal eDonomZ $omQanies reDrVit and train Qersonnel to Vse modern DommVniDations tools sVDh as soDial media internet marLetinH and Xireless deWiDes oWerDominH the limits oG national Corders and DVltVral CoVndaries
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$ontent is more aDDessiCle and less eYQensiWe enaClinH DonsVmers and enterQrises to GVllZ inteHrate share similar eYQerienDes and imQroWe QrodVDtiWitZ and resQonsiWeness to DVstomer needs and orders on a HloCal Casis The raQid HroXth oG aGGordaCle inGormation deliWerZ to endDonsVmers throVHh satellite dishes DaCle headends mCertotheDVrC and Xireless CroadCand enaCled a siHnimDant eYQansion oG Dontent DhoiDes Xhile QermittinH tXoXaZ interaDtiWitZ on an VnQreDedented sDale This driWes siHnimDant demand Gor more CandXidth aWailaCilitZ inDreasinH the need Gor satelliteCased and HroVndCased deliWerZ sZstems
Mobility The HloCal demand Grom enterQrises and DonsVmers Gor moCile DommVniDations has eYQande oWer the Qast deDade The deWeloQment oG loXDost moCile eRViQment Vnleashed siHnimDant HroXth Cest met CZ the VCiRVitZ onlZ satellite deliWerZ Dan QroWide From HloCal DommVniDations to direDttoDonsVmer serWiDes sVDh as moCile teleWision *nternet and CroadCand serWiDes and satellite radio and enterQrise DaQaCilities sVDh as moCile CroadDastinH satellite neXs HatherinH and transQortation neet manaHement the demand Gor moCile DonneDtiWitZ aQQears insatiaCle TransQortation sZstems are raQidlZ inDorQoratinH moCile DommVniDations teDhnoloHies sVDh as airline oQerators +et#lVe and 6nited Airlines Xith %ireDT7 serWiDe Gor their QassenHers rental Dar neets GeatVrinH 4iriVs 4atellite 3adio and emerHenDZ serWiDes sVDh as 0n4tar eYQandinH CeZond (eneral .otors WehiDles .oCile DonneDtiWitZ Xill Ce a maKor driWer Gor marLet HroXth in the neYt deDade QartiDVlarlZ in Asia Xhere DoVntries sVDh as 4oVth ,orea +aQan TaiXan and 4inHaQore tZQiDallZ adoQt neX teDhnoloHies earlZ
Market Segments
Fixed Satellite Services (FSS) The F44 marLet DontinVes to QerGorm Xell .aKor HloCal oQerators sVDh as *ntelsat 4&4 and &Vtelsat and reHional oQerators sVDh as Telesat Asia4at and 4LZ1erGeDt reQort hiHh transQonder Vtili[ation rates and staCle transQonder lease QriDinH The marLet is driWen CZ demand Gor larHer reQlaDement sQaDeDraGt Xith additional eYQansion in neX orCital slots Gor neX satellites Asia DontinVes to lead HroXth dVe to inDreasinH demand Gor enterQrise 74AT serWiDes eYQansion oG hiHh demnition teleWision serWiDes )%T7 and *nternet DonneDtiWitZ %emand in 8estern &VroQe remains solid CVt HroXth is GoDVsed in $entral and &astern &VroQe and 3Vssia The .iddle &ast and AGriDa are eYQerienDinH moderate HroXth in transQonder demand dVe to dereHVlation inDreased DomQetition and the aWailaCilitZ oG more loDal Dontent Grom CroadDasters %Ve to the QrolonHed imQaDt oG the eDonomiD reDession the /orth AmeriDan marLet has eYQerienDed some transQonder QriDinH XeaLness CVt this has not sVCstantiallZ aGGeDted oQerator mnanDial QerGormanDe 4oVth AmeriDa DontinVes to rise Xith the emerHenDe oG a larHer DonsVmer Dlass imQroWed reHVlatorZ Dlimate and seWeral nations seeLinH *TA3Gree loXDost satellites to eYerDise their riHhts to *T6assiHned orCital slots and GreRVenDies Another QositiWe siHn is inDreased demand CZ HoWernments Gor DaQaDitZ to sVQQort DiWil aQQliDations and militarZ DommVniDations The 64 %eQartment oG %eGense has deDreased its demand Gor DommerDiallZ QroDVred CandXidth Xith the draXdoXn oG trooQs in *raR and AGHhanistan )oXeWer satellite oQerators haWe Ceen aCle to mnd other DVstomers to maLe VQ Gor this droQ *ntelsat &Vtelsat )isQasat and other oQerators eYQeDt to deriWe siHnimDant reWenVes Grom national HoWernments Gor the QroWision oG transQonder DaQaDitZ
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
Direct Broadcasting Services (DBS) The letharHiD 64 eDonomZ has QressVred the %#4 marLet inDreasinH DonsVmer DhVrn rates DomQetition Grom loXDost mCertotheDVrC in VrCan areas and Dost QressVres Grom DaCle oQerators trZinH to QroteDt marLet share 4atellites haWe eWen reaDhed satVration in seleDted metroQolitan areas This aDDoVnts Gor &Dho4tar’s motiWation to eYQand its DonsVmer and enterQrise QresenDe CZ QroWidinH CroadCand and moCile serWiDes Xith the aDRVisition oG )VHhes $ommVniDations and its +VQiter 1 noX &Dho4tar 17 satellite #oth &Dho4tar and %ireDT7 haWe stronH DaQital inWestment QroHrams and eYQeDt to laVnDh seWeral satellites eaDh in the neYt GeX Zears to reQlaDe and add to DVrrent DaQaDitZ Telesat Xill also meet inDreasinH demand Xith the laVnDh oG neX satellites in reHions Xhere the Dost oG laZinH mCer or DaCle is QrohiCitiWe %emand Gor direDttohome serWiDes in &VroQe is inDreasinH CVt manZ DonsVmers reDeiWe )%T7 Wia DaCle headend distriCVtion Dhannels Grom F44 oQerators sVDh as 4&4 &Vtelsat and Telenor As Xith F44 HroXth Xill Ce driWen CZ demand Gor )%T7 in Asia Grom oQerators sVDh as +aQan’s 4LZ1erGeDt 4oVth ,orea’s ,T and 4inHaQore’s 4inHTel0QtVs
Broadband Services The CroadCand marLet DontinVes to sQread HloCallZ as enterQrise and DonsVmer needs Gor moCile DonneDtiWitZ driWe inWestments in hiHhDaQaDitZ sZstems sVDh as )VHhes $ommVniDations noX &Dho4tar */.A34AT 7ia4at and neXDomers sVDh as AWanti in the 6, and /eX4at and /#/ in AVstralia */.A34AT is deQloZinH its (loCal &YQress sZstem to QroWide CroadCand DonneDtiWitZ in land moCile aeronaVtiDal and maritime marLet seHments The 64’s -iHht4RVared 4( Xireless hZCrid terrestrialsatellite sZstem enDoVntered a maKor hVrdle Xith the F$$ XhiDh stated the sZstem’s transmissions DaVse interGerenDe Xith siHnals Grom the (14 Donstellation As Xith the F44 and %#4 marLets demand Grom Asia led CZ 4oVth ,orea +aQan $hina TaiXan and 4inHaQore Xill driWe the marLet Gor CroadCand satellite serWiDes (oWernmentGVnded initiatiWes and mandates to QroWide CroadCand serWiDes and *nternet DonneDtiWitZ Xill helQ driWe the marLet QartiDVlarlZ Xhere those demands Dannot Ce met CZ laZinH mCer sVDh as in remote and rVral loDations
Mobile Satellite Systems (MSS) The .44 marLet remains in nVY .44 reRVires siHnimDant inWestment to eYQand the HroVnd netXorL inDlVdinH the anDillarZ terrestrial netXorL in VrCan areas to attraDt enterQrise and DonsVmer Vsers #oth -iHht4RVared and Terre4tar entered CanLrVQtDZ in an attemQt to rearranHe mnanDinH and aDRVire neX inWestors CVt Gor noX their 4LZTerra 2 and Terre4tar 2 satellites resQeDtiWelZ remain VnlaVnDhed &Dho4tar’s %ish /etXorL reDentlZ aDRVired all the assets oG Terre4tar and Qlans to reKVWenate that sZstem
*/.A34AT DontinVes to QerGorm stronHlZ Xith steadZ demand in its WertiDal enterQrise marLets as it deQloZs its adWanDed */.A34AT 5 satellites .eYiDo’s .eYsat Donstellation Xill QroWide moCile serWiDes Gor DiWil administration and emerHenDZ DommVniDations *n the .iddle &ast ThVraZa remains sVDDessGVl and is DonsiderinH sZstem eYQansion to meet demand &VroQe and +aQan haWe Ceen DontemQlatinH dediDated .44 serWiDes to CVild on DaQaCilities DVrrentlZ QroWided throVHh F44 sZstems CVt Doordination aDross &VroQean nations remains an issVe
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Digital Audio Radio Service (DARS) %A34 remains an eYDlVsiWelZ /orth AmeriDan QrodVDt sinDe the merHer oG 9. 4atellite 3adio and 4iriVs 4atellite 3adio %A34 reWenVe HreX siY QerDent this Zear satellite radio HroXth traDLs Xith Dar sales *n 21 Dar sales in the 6nited 4tates Xere VQ 11 QerDent This serWiDe has Zet to attraDt HloCal attention althoVHh 4oVth ,orea and +aQan DooQerated on the .#4AT sZstem %A34 Xill liLelZ eYQand to Asia mrst GolloXed CZ 8estern &VroQe
*n sVmmarZ enterQrise and DonsVmer demand Gor DonneDtiWitZ Wia satellite is eYQeDted to inDrease oWer the neYt deDade The oVtlooL Gor satellite serWiDes Grom (40 remains stronH driWen CZ reQlaDement and modest eYQansion in F44 and %#4 sZstems and CZ neX CroadCand sZstems &DonomiD reDoWerZ in /orth AmeriDa &VroQe and Asia Xill enaCle a retVrn to HroXth Xith roCVst QentVQ demand Grom enterQrise DonsVmer and HoWernment marLets Grom eYistinH and emerHinH satellite oQerators
Satellite Technologies
All-Electric Satellites AdWanDes in satellite QroQVlsion teDhnoloHZ are HaininH traDtion in the marLet )ZCrid sZstems Vtili[inH eleDtriD QroQVlsion Gor northsoVth stationLeeQinH redVDe GVel loads resVltinH in loXer seQarated mass than satellites Xith traditional allDhemiDal sZstems These solVtions haWe Ceen in the marLet Gor almost tXo deDades CVt are mndinH inDreased DommerDial aQQeal as QaZloads CeDome larHer and more DomQleY )ZCrid sZstems DaQaCle oG eleDtriD orCit raisinH oGGer eWen Hreater seQarated mass saWinH CZ aVHmentinH a Qortion oG the traditional DhemiDal orCit raisinH Xith hiHher eGmDienDZ eleDtriD QroQVlsion
The all eleDtriD satellite teDhnoloHZ oGGered Grom maKor manVGaDtVrers liLe #oeinH and 44- is DomQellinH Gor an oQerator looLinH to loXer their DaQital eYQenditVres $A1&9 needed to CVild and laVnDh a (&0 DommerDial satellite #eDaVse all eleDtriD satellites haWe siHnimDantlZ loXer mass than traditional CiQroQellant sZstems tXo oG these satellites Dan Ce laVnDhed on the same laVnDh WehiDle in a staDLed DonmHVration %Val laVnDhes oGGer a Qotential saWinHs oG 25 Grom the laVnDh Dosts alone and Dan helQ oQerators Dlose CVsiness Dases that did not seem GeasiCle CeGore
A draXCaDL to all eleDtriD satellites is orCit raisinH sDhedVles oG siY months lonHer than DonWentional allDhemiDal satellites CVt their liHhter mass alloXs alleleDtriD satellites to DarrZ larHer QaZloads on a smaller QlatGorm 0Qerators Xill need to eWalVate the mnanDial and sDhedVle imQaDts CetXeen alleleDtriD and traditional satellite oGGerinHs
The imQaDt Grom alleleDtriD oGGerinHs Gor the laVnDh marLet is still VnDlear AlleleDtriD satellites are oGten desiHned Gor a staDLed dVallaVnDh DonmHVration XhiDh in theorZ XoVld halWe the nVmCer oG laVnDhes Gor these satellites )oXeWer some oG the alleleDtriD aXards DoVld Ce Gor neX CVsiness oQQortVnities that moWed GorXard Xith helQ Grom the dVal laVnDh saWinHs As more alleleDtriD satellites are ordered this Xill QroWide DlVes on hoX oQerators Qlan to inDorQorate the satellites into their neets
Laser Communications *n the GVtVre oQerators Xill haWe the DaQaCilitZ to DonneDt their (&0 DommerDial satellites to terrestrial HroVnd stations Wia laser linLs As shoXn in tests CZ /A4A and other sQaDe
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
aHenDies laser DommVniDations oGGers orders oG maHnitVde hiHher data rates than traditional radio GreRVenDZ DommVniDation and maZ QroWe VseGVl Gor deeQ sQaDe eYQloration *mQlementinH a laser DommVniDation sZstem Xill also saWe mass and redVDe QoXer on the satellite For hiHher CandXidth aQQliDations liLe )iHh ThroVHhQVt 4atellites )T4 laser DommVniDations Xill helQ QroWide hiHher throVHhQVt esQeDiallZ Xhere sQeDtrVm is limited )oXeWer CeDaVse laser linLs Dan Ce attenVated CZ DloVd DoWer seWeral HroVnd terminals in diWerse reHions XoVld Ce needed to HVarantee the RValitZ oG serWiDe to the endVser
The imQaDt oG laser DommVniDations on the laVnDh WehiDle marLet is QroCaClZ minimal -aser DommVniDations is not aQQliDaCle to all satellite missions and thVs Xill Ce limited to aQQliDations inWolWinH larHe data transGers -asers Xill Ce enhanDements to the eYistinH QaZloads or addons to QroWide linLs Gor Dertain GVnDtions rather than DreatinH an entirelZ neX marLet Gor laser DommVniDation satellites
Spectrum Limitations and Orbital Slot Limitations The laDL oG aWailaCle sQeDtrVm at the DommonlZVsed $ and ,VCand GreRVenDies and orCital slots maLes it DhallenHinH Gor neX satellite oQerators to enter the marLet and Gor eYistinH oQerators to eYQand their CVsiness Vnless theZ Donsider aDRVirinH a DomQetitor or deWeloQinH alternatiWe sQeDtrVm sVDh as ,aCand This Xas demonstrated CZ &Vtelsat’s reDent aDRVisition oG 4atmeY that alloXed the DomQanZ to Dontrol neX orCital slots Xith aDDess to GastHroXinH -atin AmeriDan marLets *n other instanDes oQerators haWe Do oQerated on deWeloQinH or QreserWinH an orCital slot *n 214 Asia4at Xill QlaDe a satellite in ThaiDom’s 12¡& lonHitVde orCital Qosition *n retVrn ThaiDom Xill haWe aDDess to the $Cand transQonders on the satellite This aHreement alloXed ThaiDom to QreserWe its orCital slot and QroWided eYQansion oQQortVnities Gor Asia4at
Additional sQeDtrVm is aWailaCle in the F44 FiYed 4atellite 4erWiDes 1lanned #ands XhiDh Xere estaClished CZ the *T6 to Dreate eRVitaCle aDDess to sQeDtrVm and orCital slots esQeDiallZ Gor smaller relatiWelZVndeWeloQed DoVntries The #roadDastinH 4atellite 4erWiDe #44 1lanned #ands are XidelZ Vsed Gor oneXaZ direDttohome teleWision serWiDes %ireDT7 and %ish in the 64 and 4&4 and &Vtelsat in &VroQe CVt the F44 1lanned #ands haWe hardlZ Ceen eYQloited ThroVHh the eYerDise oG the *T6 1lan in the *T6 3adio 3eHVlations AQQendiY # these smaller DoVntries Dan Hain aDDess to $ and ,VCand GreRVenDies that are distinDtlZ diGGerent Grom the DommonlZ Vsed iVnQlannedw $ and ,V Cand GreRVenDZ sets
8ith the laVnDh oG the 7inasat 1 and 2 satellites 7ietnam has CeDome one oG the earlZ adoQters oG 1lanned $ and ,VCand The 7inasat 1 and 2 sQaDeDraGt are loDated at 12¡ east lonHitVde XhiDh enaCles 7ietnam’s aDDess to satellite DommVniDations XithoVt DaVsinH or reDeiWinH harmGVl interGerenDe Grom neiHhCorinH satellites
-eWeraHinH eYistinH orCital loDations and VsinH 1lanned #ands Dan QlaZ an imQortant role in the eYQansion oG satellite DommVniDations An orCital slot that is GVllZ Vtili[ed Gor DonWentional VnQlanned $ and ,VCands in the /orthern )emisQhere Dan also Ce deWeloQed Gor the same VnQlanned Cands in the 4oVthern )emisQhere *n addition the same slot Dan Ce deWeloQed Gor the 1lanned $ and ,VCands These strateHies maZ QroWide a modest mediVmterm stimVlVs in the laVnDh marLet as neX satellites are CVilt Gor these areas )oXeWer as sQeDtrVm and slots Het inDreasinHlZ DonHested laVnDher demand is liLelZ to shiGt to reQlaDement satellites
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4K and 8K UltraHD The 4, Wersion oG 6ltra)% 6)% T7 QroWides GoVr times the resolVtion oG FVll )% 18Q T7 Dhannels and as a resVlt transmission oG 4, 6)% Xill reRVire a sVCstantial inDrease in CandXidth in DomQarison to )% T7 Xith some eYQerts reQortinH that 5 more CandXidth Xill Ce reRVired Gor 6)% 7ideo DomQression teDhniRVes CeinH deWeloQed as Qart oG the latest Wideo enDodinH and transmission standard )iHh &GmDienDZ 7ideo $odinH or )&7$ are QlaZinH a LeZ role in settinH the CandXidth and data rates that Xill Ce reRVired Gor reasonaClZ reliaCle transmission oG 6)% The 8, Wersion oG 6ltra)% T7 QroWides 16 times the resolVtion oG FVll )% 18Q T7 Dhannels 8hile manZ are XorLinH on 4, QroHramminH and hardXare /), oG +aQan is sLiQQinH 4, altoHether and XorLinH on 8, teDhnoloHies Xith the Hoal oG CroadDastinH the 22 ToLZo 0lZmQiD (ames in 8,
The rolloVt oG 4, Wideo DoVld DaVse an inDrease in the nVmCer oG transQonders that are reRVired to deliWer %T) Wideo and CroadDast and DaCle Dhannel distriCVtion *t is not Zet Dlear iG the %T) oQerators are aDtiWelZ QlanninH to sVQQort 4, Wideo *G DaCle oQerators deDide to sVQQort 4, Wideo the CroadDast and DaCle netXorLs are liLelZ to reRVire additional $Cand DaQaDitZ alonH Xith the Vse oG )&7$ and hiHherorder modVlation sDhemes )oX this Xill driWe oWerall demand Gor satellites is VnDertain *t remains to Ce seen iG DomQression and modVlation Dan LeeQ QaDe Xith the 8, Wideo rolloVt in the lonH term
In-Flight Connectivity There are manZ QlaZers in the inniHht 8iFi marLet sQaDe 8hereas 1anasoniD 0nAir 3oX 44 and others Vse satellites linLs (0(0 mainlZ Vses an airtoHroVnd AT( netXorL to DonneDt its Qlanes ThoVHh the nVmCer oG DonneDted airDraGt has inDreased the taLe rates Gor inniHht DonneDtiWitZ are DVrrentlZ CeloX eYQeDtations This is GoreDasted to DhanHe as more QassenHers haWe smartQhones or taClets and as rVles are relaYed Gor the Vse oG Qersonal eleDtroniD deWiDes dVrinH all Qhases oG niHht
As the demand Gor inniHht DonneDtiWitZ inDreases the serWiDe QroWiders Xill haWe to Dhoose CetXeen an AT( satellite or hZCrid AT(satellite netXorL For satellites theZ also mVst Dhoose CetXeen -Cand ,VCand and ,aCand sZstems */.A34AT’s (loCal &YQress satellites alonH Xith 7iasat 2 maZ QroWide some oG this reRVired additional DaQaDitZ )oXeWer as the marLet inDreases there Xill Ce more satellite orders to meet CandXidth demands Gor inniHht DonneDtiWitZ
High-Throughput Satellites (HTS) )iHhthroVHhQVt satellites emQloZ GreRVenDZ reVse and sQot Ceams to inDrease the satellite CandXidth oWer traditional CentQiQe QaZloads *n reDent Zears the )T4 marLet Xas driWen CZ ,aCand CroadCand aQQliDations to the DonsVmer marLet led CZ satellite orders Grom )VHhes /etXorL 4Zstems and 7iasat *ntelsat is reQlaDinH some oG its F44 satellites Xith its hiHhthroVHhQVt &QiD satellites startinH in 215 *ntelsat’s Hoal is to redVDe the QriDe Qer meHaCit DharHed to the DVstomer Xhile at the same time inDreasinH the reWenVe HeneratinH DaQaDitZ oG the &QiD satellites oWer DonWentional ones at some oG its Qrime orCital loDations
)T4 sZstems are WerZ DomQellinH Gor QroWidinH additional CandXidth to DVstomers at a loXer QriDe Qoint than traditional oGGerinHs As demand Gor data inDreases sVDh as Gor in
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
niHht DonneDtiWitZ or DellVlar CaDLhaVl )T4 orders are liLelZ to HroX These dediDated )T4 sZstems XoVld Ce similar to the +VQiter2 and 7iasat2 satellites For oQerators liLe *ntelsat a )T4 sZstem DoVld redVDe their neet DoVnt CZ QroWidinH doVCle or triQle the DaQaDitZ onorCit oWer traditional F44 satellites 0ther oQerators DoVld add a hiHhthroVHhQVt QaZload on a reQlaDement satellite ThoVHh orders Gor hiHhthroVHhQVt QaZloads and satellites Xill inDrease the net eGGeDt oG this sVrHe on the laVnDh WehiDle marLet is VnDlear
On-Orbit Servicing There haWe Ceen seWeral DommerDial GoraZs into the satellite serWiDinH marLet in reDent Zears *n .arDh 214 7iWi4at annoVnDed the CooLinH oG three missions to Vse its .ission &Ytension 7ehiDles .&7 a QlatGorm that Xill DonneDt to a (&0 DommerDial satellite and taLe oWer attitVde and Dontrol GVnDtions Xhile the host satellite DontinVes to oQerate its GVnDtional QaZload 7iWi4at hoQes to start the DonstrVDtion oG these sQeDiali[ed WehiDles CZ the end oG 214 QendinH DomQletion oG mnanDinH *n 211 $anada’s .aD%onald %ettXiler and AssoDiates .%A $orQoration also annoVnDed Qlans Gor an inorCit serWiDinH WehiDle Xith hoQes oG demonstratinH the DaQaCilities on *ntelsat satellites )oXeWer .%A DhanHed its Qlans in 212 in order to sVQQort HoWernmentsQonsored satellite serWiDinH initiatiWes
(oWernment aHenDies haWe also Ceen aDtiWe in this area /A4A laVnDhed its 3oCotiD 3eGVelinH .ission in 211 Xith the mrst Qhase demonstration sVDDessGVllZ DomQleted in 21 1hase 2 demonstrations are eYQeDted to Ce Darried oVt in 214 and CVild VQon the QreWioVs tests oG roCotiD arms tools and sensors *n 212 the %-3 4QaDe Administration (ermanZ annoVnDed Qlans to demonstrate inorCit serWiDinH and related teDhnoloHies Xith the DonstrVDtion oG a Dlient and serWiDer WehiDle as Qart oG its %&04 QroKeDt to Ce laVnDhed in 218
The 64 %eGense AdWanDed 3esearDh 1roKeDts AHenDZ %A31A 1hoeniY QroKeDt is also GoDVsed on satellite serWiDinH and neX XaZs to aDDess sQaDe 1hoeniY’s Hoal is to deWeloQ and demonstrate teDhnoloHies that maLe it QossiCle to insQeDt and roCotiDallZ serWiDe Do oQeratiWe sQaDe sZstems in (&0 and to Walidate neX satellite assemClZ arDhiteDtVres 1hoeniY has aDhieWed QromisinH 1hase 1 resVlts and in 21 it aXarded Qrime DontraDts to eiHht DomQanies Gor its 1hase 2 eGGorts
*G sVDDessGVl the start oG onorCit serWiDinH and liGe eYtension missions maZ QVsh oVt reQlaDement orders Gor some (&0 DommerDial satellites &WentVallZ hoXeWer manZ oG these satellites Xill still need to Ce reQlaDed and thVs the oWerall laVnDh WehiDle demand maZ not DhanHe
Competition from LEO Systems The (40 marLet is seeinH DomQetition emerHinH Grom Donstellation sZstems deQloZed in -&0 QartiDVlarlZ in the marLet Gor enterQrise and DonsVmer CroadCand serWiDes .aKor (&0 CroadCand serWiDe QroWiders inDlVde
t *ntelsat Xith its oQen arDhiteDtVre &QiD series oG hiHh throVHhQVt satellites Gor $ ,V and ,aCand oWerlaZ Gor mYed and Xireless CroadCand media DVstomi[ed solVtions moCilitZ seDtors and HoWernment aQQliDations on thiDL and thin roVte traGmD t */.A34AT’s (loCal 9Qress ,aCand sZstem as the mrst XorldXide moCile satellite sZstem QroWidinH CroadCand serWiDes to the maritime and aeronaVtiDal seDtors
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t 7ia4at Xith its series oG hiHh throVHhQVt satellites Cased on a neX satellite arDhiteDtVre and innoWatiWe HroVnd sZstem that maYimi[es total CandXidth throVHhQVt to transGorm satellite CroadCand eDonomiDs and the RValitZ oG the Vser eYQerienDe Gor DoWeraHe oG rVral and remote areas in /orth AmeriDa and
t &Dhostar Xith its +VQiter QlatGorms also QroWidinH CroadCand serWiDes DoWeraHe to /orth AmeriDa
AraCsat &Vtelsat AWanti )isQasat 4&4 /#/ and Telesat also haWe or Qlan to haWe CroadCand ,aCand QaDLaHes on F44 satellites or dediDated ,aCand sQaDeDraGt oGGerinH CroadCand serWiDes Xithin their oQeratinH reHions
These (40 oQerators are CeinH DhallenHed CZ .&0 oQerator 0C XhiDh toVts its neYtHeneration HloCal netXorL as DomCininH the reaDh oG satellite Xith the sQeed oG mCer QroWidinH enterQrise moCile CaDLhaVl DonsVmer and HoWernment DVstomers Xith aGGordaCle loXlatenDZ hiHhCandXidth DonneDtiWitZ 0C CelieWes its DomQetitiWe adWantaHe lies in the loX latenDZ eYQerienDed Xith its .&0 satellite sZstem DomQared to that Grom (&0 XhiDh Dan Ce VQ to 4 times Hreater to imQroWe the RValitZ oG the end Vser’s eYQerienDe 0C notes that Dertain Dlasses oG serWiDes are more sVsDeQtiCle to the eGGeDts oG netXorL latenDZ inDlVdinH real time Wideo and WoiDe and WoiDe messaHinH and real time data VQlinL and doXnlinL and transaDtional data 0C notes that latenDZ has a maKor imQaDt on XeC DommerDe Xith siHnimDant loss oG eDommerDe sales lost dVe to Qoor XeCsite QerGormanDe Xhen the QVrDhaser eYQerienDes siHnal disrVQtions and loss oG interaDtiWe DonneDtiWitZ
&nd Vsers QerDeiWe latenDZ inDreases oG a GeX hVndred milliseDonds in a neHatiWe XaZ XhiDh Dan translate into loss oG CVsiness Gor QroWiders and adWertisers 0C also notes that maKor QroWiders oG XeC Wideo streaminH noX VsinH T$1 transQort so the latenDZ imQaDt on the deHraded Vser eYQerienDe Xill Ce the same Gor *nternet Wideo streaminH as it is Gor data mle transGer 0C CelieWes the RValitZ oG the Vser eYQerienDe Grom its .&0 sZstem Xill enaCle measVraClZ imQroWed WoiDe RValitZ dramatiDallZ imQroWinH the resQonse oG interaDtiWe aQQliDations enaClinH sVDh as interaDtiWe HaminH and redVDinH mle doXnload times CZ 6
0C is CeHinninH serWiDe Xith 8 satellites Grom .&0 CVt intends to VltimatelZ oQerate 2 satellites to CaDLhaVl CroadCand traGmD to DonneDt VnderserWed and QoorlZ serWed QoQVlations CetXeen 45 deHrees north and 45 deHrees soVth latitVde $omQetition Xill thereGore Ce RVite stronH Gor DonsVmers and HoWernment CroadCand Vsers Gor aQQliDations sVDh as XeC CroXsinH mle sharinH 70*1 Wideo on demand Wideo DonGerenDinH internet teleWision and real time internet HaminH and other serWiDes (loCal DaQaDitZ reRVirements are eYQeDted to reaDh 48 (CQs CZ 221 Xith oWer 1 million DonsVmer CroadCand Wia satellite sVCsDriCers The raDe is on CetXeen (&0 and -&0 QroWiders Gor endVsers and reWenVes
Hosted Payloads )osted QaZloads are QaZloads that are tZQiDallZ too small to KVstiGZ a dediDated mission dVe to QaZload si[e CVdHet or Qotential reWenVes )osted QaZloads are oGten Qaired Xith a DommerDial satellite mission Xhere the satellite oQerator aDDommodates the QaZload to oGGset its Dosts or to add to a reWenVe stream to Dlose a CVsiness Dase The DVrrent 64 /ational 4QaDe 1oliDZ direDts the Vse oG hosted QaZload solVtions to maYimi[e reliaCilitZ aGGordaCilitZ and resQonsiWeness
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
There are a WarietZ oG Qotential hosted QaZload tZQes inDlVdinH eYQerimental QaZloads teDhnoloHZ demonstrations sDientimD missions remote sensinH Xeather and Dlimate monitorinH (14 and 8AA4 8ideArea AVHmentation 4Zstem and national seDVritZ missions 1aZload hostinH Cenemts Coth Qarties The total QriDe oG the satellite and laVnDh serWiDe is shared oGGsettinH the QrimarZ QaZload’s Dosts Xhile QroWidinH aGGordaCle sQaDe aDDess Gor the hosted QaZload *n addition the hosted QaZload Hains the eGmDienDZ oG VsinH a DommerDial laVnDh sZstem that QroWides aDDess to more orCital loDations FVrthermore the sDhedVle Grom the start oG a QroHram to laVnDh is relatiWelZ short tXo to three Zears and GairlZ QrediDtaCle DomQared to a shared laVnDh Xith other HoWernment missions
$ommerDial satellite oQerators reHVlarlZ GormVlate their satellite QroDVrement DontraDts to address their needs and taLe adWantaHe oG oQQortVnities liLe hosted QaZloads to imQroWe retVrn on inWestment There is a readZ sVQQlZ oG DommerDial satellite laVnDhes XillinH and eaHer to aDDommodate hosted QaZloads and the nVmCer oG hosted QaZload laVnDhes and aXards DontinVes to inDrease
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t *n 211 4&4 (oWernment 4olVtions laVnDhed the $ommerDiallZ )osted *nGrared 1aZload FliHht %emonstration 1roHram $)*31 on the 4&42 satellite CVilt CZ 0rCital 4DienDes $orQoration This Third(eneration *nGrared 4VrWeillanDe (*34 QroHram Xill Ce Vsed to Walidate missileXarninH teDhnoloHies
t The AVstralian %eGense ForDe A%F QVrDhased a sQeDiali[ed 6)F DommVniDations QaZload Grom *ntelsat This QaZload is hosted aCoard the *ntelsat 22 satellite CVilt CZ #oeinH 4QaDe *ntelliHenDe 4Zstems and Xas laVnDhed in .arDh 212 t AWanti $ommVniDations is QlaDinH a ,aCand CroadCand QaZload desiHnated ):-A4 aCoard a &VroQean 4QaDe AHenDZ &4A &VroQean %ata 3elaZ 4Zstem &%34 satellite dVe to Ce laVnDhed in late 215 t /A4A DontraDted Xith 44- to host a -aser $ommVniDations 3elaZ %emonstration terminal to test laser oQtiDal DommVniDations CetXeen a HeostationarZorCitinH satellite and a /A4A HroVnd terminal aCoard a DommerDial satellite Zet to Ce seleDted -aVnDh is Qlanned Gor 216 t *nmarsat added hosted QaZloads to its three #oeinHCVilt *nmarsat 5 ,aCand satellites t &4A the &VroQean $ommission and &VroDontrol the &VroQean analoH to the FAA’s air traGmD Dontrol orHani[ation DontraDted Xith 4&4 to host tXo 4atellite#ased AVHmentation 4Zstems 4#A4 Gor the &VroQean (eostationarZ /aWiHation 0WerlaZ 4erWiDe &(/04 &(/04 Xill sVQQlement (14 (-0/A44 and the (alileo satellite naWiHation sZstems CZ measVrinH the aDDVraDZ oG satellite naWiHation siHnals The mrst QaZload is hosted aCoard 4&4 5 CVilt CZ 44- and the seDond on Astra 5# CVilt CZ &A%4 AstriVm
There are limitations to XidesQread Vse oG hosted QaZloads The DontraDtVal relationshiQs are DomQleY CeDaVse there are tZQiDallZ three or more Qarties inWolWed in the mission rather than tXo satellite manVGaDtVrer and oQerator *n some Dases a hosted QaZload is added aGter a DontraDt is siHned CetXeen the satellite manVGaDtVrer and oQerator *n sVDh Dases the
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manVGaDtVrer and oQerator do not Xant to imQaDt their QroHram sDhedVle and reRVire mrm deadlines Gor deliWerZ oG the hosted QaZload as Xell as DlearlZ demned interGaDes at the start oG satellite inteHration *G the hosted QaZload Gails to arriWe on time the satellite oQerator or the hosted QaZload oQerator maZ Ce liaCle Gor anZ imQaDts to satellite Dost and sDhedVle *n sVDh Dases the satellite manVGaDtVrer maZ seeL ioGGramQsw to oGGset the QossiCilitZ oG late deliWerZ Qenalties iG the hosted QaZload DaVses a delaZ in deliWerZ oG the satellite
There is a Croad and HroXinH interest in deWeloQinH laVnDhinH and oQeratinH hosted QaZloads *ndVstrZ DollaCoration or other DooQeratiWe leadershiQ is neDessarZ to CrinH toHether Dlients mnanDinH soVrDes satellite oQerators and laVnDh WehiDle QroWiders to standardi[e the hosted QaZload QroDess 8hen this is aDDomQlished hosted QaZloads Xill Ce a roVtine Qart oG the DommerDial satellite CVsiness
4eWen satellite manVGaDtVrers and oQerators reDentlZ aHreed to Gorm an indVstrZ allianDe to inDrease aXareness oG the Cenemts oG hosted HoWernment QaZloads on DommerDial satellites The )osted 1aZload AllianDe )1A Xill serWe as a CridHe CetXeen HoWernment and indVstrZ to Goster oQen DommVniDation CetXeen Qotential Vsers and QroWiders oG hosted QaZload DaQaCilities )1A 4teerinH $ommittee memCers inDlVde #oeinH *ntelsat *ridiVm -oDLheed .artin 0rCital 4&4 and 44-
Launch Service Providers $omQetition has inDreased in the (&0 DommVniDations satellite laVnDh serWiDes marLet Xith neX entrants deCVtinH DaQaCilities eYistinH QroWiders inWestinH to imQroWe their QrodVDt and serWiDe oGGerinHs and others XaitinH in the XinHs to enter the marLetQlaDe $ommVniDations satellite laVnDh serWiDe aXards Xill Ce Cased more than CeGore on oWerall Cest WalVe as QerDeiWed CZ satellite oQerators Xith LeZ GaDtors CeinH QroWen reliaCilitZ sDhedVle assVranDe maniGest aWailaCilitZ aWailaCle sDhedVlinH and a DomQellinH WalVe QroQosition
*n the Qast tXelWe months 4QaDe9 has laVnDhed seWeral satellites into (T0 Gor DommerDial satellite oQerators FalDon Dan deliWer _4 85 LH into (T0 Grom $$AF4 The DomQanZ is deWeloQinH the FalDon )eaWZ laVnDh WehiDle XhiDh Xill Ce DaQaCle oG loGtinH _21 2 LH into (T0 Grom $$AF4 Xhen oQerational in 215 to address the intermediate and heaWZ mass seHments oG the DommerDial satellite marLet
ArianesQaDe is seeLinH to imQroWe its DomQetitiWeness in the DommerDial (T0 marLetQlaDe Xith inWestments in Ariane 5 .& .idliGe &Ytension QroHram XhiDh Xill inDrease DaQaDitZ Grom _ 4 LH todaZ to _11 LH CZ 218 This Xill enaCle Ariane 5 to DarrZ tXo larHe satellites simVltaneoVslZ as oQQosed to QairinH one smallmediVm and one larHe satellite todaZ AdditionallZ &4A is GVndinH deWeloQment oG Ariane 6 to Ce oQerational in 221 to QroWide sinHle satellite laVnDh DaQaCilitZ aDross the QaZload mass sQeDtrVm to Ce more QriDeDomQetitiWe AlthoVHh DaQaCle oG QlaDinH a mediVm mass QaZload into (T0 Grom ,oVroV the 4oZV[ WehiDle aQQears to Ce dediDated to nZinH missions to -&0 Gor noX
*nternational -aVnDh 4erWiDes *-4 DontinVes to VQHrade its 1roton .#ree[e . WehiDle to eWentVallZ Ce DaQaCle oG loGtinH 6 LH into (T0 Grom #aiLonVr *ntrodVDtion oG a 5 meter QaZload GairinH in 216 Xill alloX deQloZments oG satellites Xith mass VQ to 5 85 LH *-4 has demonstrated dVal QaZload DaQaCilitZ seWeral times The DomQanZ has reDentlZ institVted a series oG RValitZ manaHement reGorms streamlined QrodVDtion at its ,hrVniDheW GaDilities and redVDed QaZload QroDessinH times at #aiLonVr The DomQanZ hoQes to
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
inDrease its laVnDh rate to 1214 Qer Zear Grom its DVrrent rate oG 68 Qer Zear 1roton . is to Ce Qhased oVt CZ 22 as is #aiLonVr laVnDh DomQleY and reQlaDed CZ the modVlar and lessDostlZ AnHara GamilZ oG Coosters laVnDhed Grom 3Vssia’s Far &ast The 3Vssian HoWernment reDentlZ annoVnDed a _5# inWestment in the sQaDe seDtor throVHh 22 to reHain Xorld Dlass DaQaCilities inDlVdinH in aGGordaCle laVnDh WehiDles
4ea -aVnDh reDentlZ DomQleted a retVrntoniHht mission GolloXinH a GailVre in 21 4ea -aVnDh’s Qarent orHani[ation 34$ &nerHia has QledHed its sVQQort Gor 4ea -aVnDh and in DooQeration Xith the 3Vssian 4QaDe AHenDZ is in the QroDess oG DreatinH a strateHZ that Xill eYQand the addressaCle marLet Gor the ;enit4-CZ inDreasinH the ;enit4-’s liGt DaQaDitZ to 6 7 LH and introdVDinH GairinH modimDations The -and -aVnDh ;enit4-#F remains in the marLet Gor loGtinH smallmediVm satellites to (T0 Grom #aiLonVr
+aQan reDentlZ DontraDted Xith $anada’s Telesat Gor a DommerDial laVnDh oG a (&0 DommVniDations satellite Telstar 127 and *ndia is DonsiderinH laVnDhinH DommerDial satellites to (T0 *n 4eQtemCer 212 .itsVCishi )eaWZ *ndVstries -td .)* tooL resQonsiCilitZ Gor )**A’s laVnDh serWiDe oQerations The )**A WehiDle Dan loGt VQ to 58 LH to (T0 *ndia’s 4QaDe 3esearDh 0rHani[ation *430 Qlans to deCVt its neX (4-7 .arL *** WehiDle XhiDh is DaQaCle oG loGtinH _4 LH to (T0
$hina remains WerZ aDtiWe in laVnDhinH domestiD and GoreiHn satellites Xith VnaddressaCle laVnDhes Gor oQerators in DoVntries sVDh as 4ri -anLa 1aListan and -aos 0ne satellite manVGaDtVrer in &VroQe has deWeloQed i*TA3Greew satellites to aQQeal to satellite oQerators to taLe adWantaHe oG the loXer Dost oG $hinese laVnDhers
-oDLheed .artin has CeHVn to QVrsVe reentrZ into the DommerDial (T0 marLet VsinH the Atlas 7 laVnDh WehiDle Grom its 5oXned sVCsidiarZ 6nited -aVnDh AllianDe -oDLheed .artin hoQes to leWeraHe the larHe 64 HoWernment CaDLloH oG 6-A to oGGer the Atlas 7 at a DomQetitiWe QriDe Xhile toVtinH the WehiDle’s reliaCilitZ
0thers inDlVdinH 4oVth ,orea Xith its ,4-7 laVnDh WehiDle and #ra[il and 6Lraine Xith their TsZLlon4 laVnDh WehiDle haWe Donsidered eWentVallZ enterinH the DommerDial (40 marLet
Multilaunch Services Agreements -arHer DommerDial (40 satellite oQerators haWe Vsed mVltilaVnDh aHreements to seDVre GaWoraCle QriDe disDoVnts and laVnDh slots 4ome reserWations maZ Ce oQtions in that either no doXn QaZment is Qaid or are QlaDeholders XithoVt sQeDimDallZnamed satellites .Vlti laVnDh serWiDes aHreements Xill not haWe an imQaDt on driWinH demand Gor laVnDh serWiDes CVt Xill simQlZ DhanHe the miY oG laVnDh serWiDes QroWiders
Cooperation and Partnerships 4atellite oQerators DontinVe to QVrsVe satellite and orCital slot sharinH strateHies to reali[e their CVsiness oCKeDtiWes 1artnershiQs QroWide aDDess to orCital slots otherXise VnaWailaCle to some oQerators as Xell as loDal marLet aDDess and relationshiQs 1artnershiQs Dan also alloX oQerators to share satellite inGrastrVDtVre Dosts and Dlose CVsiness Qlans that theZ miHht not Ce aCle to indeQendentlZ There haWe Ceen nVmeroVs eYamQles oG satelliteorCital slot QartnershiQs inDlVdinH .easatA[erDosmos .easat/eXsat AsiasatThaiDom &Vtelsat /ilesat 4&4(a[Qrom and *ntelsat+4AT
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4eWeral &VroQean and 3Vssian satellite manVGaDtVrers reDentlZ annoVnDed the Gormation oG KointWentVres to tarHet the 3Vssian and international satellite marLets Thales and *44 3eshetneW Gormed a neX DomQanZ 6niWersVm 4QaDe TeDhnoloHies to manVGaDtVre hardXare in 3Vssia that DoVld matDh the eYaDtinH standards set CZ 64 and &VroQean DomQanies The other Koint WentVre &nerHia 4atellite TeDhnoloHies is a QartnershiQ CetXeen 34$ &nerHia and AstriVm &nerHia 4AT Xill GoDVs on satellite serWiDes and the eYDhanHe oG teDhnoloHies and LnoXhoX in the manVGaDtVrinH assemClZ and test oG eRViQment and satellite sZstems The neX DomQanies Xill tarHet seWeral 3Vssian HoWernment teleDommVniDations QroHrams in the near term Xhile raisinH their oXn teDhniDal and RValitZ standards to DomQete in the GVtVre aHainst 64 and &VroQean CVilders
*HRSROLWLFDO,QÁXHQFHVRQ/DXQFK9HKLFOH'HPDQG (eoQolitiDal GaDtors maZ innVenDe the 64 liDensed laVnDh demand dVrinH the GoreDast Qeriod At the time oG this doDVment the 3Vsso6Lrainian DonniDt had esDalated to the Qoint XhereCZ the 6nited 4tates and the &VroQean 6nion haWe imQosed additional sanDtions aHainst 3Vssia
The imQaDt to 64 liDensed laVnDh demand oG these sanDtions maZ Ce a delaZ oG satellite QroKeDts or a realiHnment or DhanHe oG DommerDial DVstomers’ laVnDh QroWiders
Impact of International “Government to Government” Satellite Delivery in Orbit Sales 0ne oG the GaDtors innVenDinH marLet demand Gor 64 liDensed laVnDh aDtiWitZ is that oG international HoWernments CroLerinH tVrnLeZ sQaDe solVtions inWolWinH the QVrDhase and mnanDinH oG the manVGaDtVre laVnDh and insVranDe DoWeraHe oG satellite QroHrams
$oVntries sVDh as $hina *ndia and 3Vssia haWe sold (&0 DommVniDations and remote sensinH satellites Vnder i%eliWerZ*n0rCitw DontraDts Xith deWeloQinH DoVntries sVDh as AnHola #elarVs #oliWia #ra[il &HZQt /iHeria 1aListan TVrLmenistan and 7ene[Vela These sales are oGten QolitiDallZdriWen Xith satellites sometimes QroWided on a strateHiD nonDomQetitiWe Casis in eYDhanHe Gor aDDess or Gor the direDt Carter oG natVral resoVrDes
$haraDteristiDallZ tarHeted toXards DoVntries that do not haWe their oXn satellites in orCit these QroDVrements are aQQroYimatelZ mGteen QerDent oG HloCal DommerDial (&0 laVnDhes thereCZ deDreasinH the oWerall addressaCle marLet oG aWailaCle laVnDhes Gor 64 liDensed laVnDh WehiDles
This trend is eYQeDted to HroX as the RValitZ reliaCilitZ and heritaHe oG these eYQortinH DoVntries’ satellites and laVnDh WehiDles DontinVe to deWeloQ and other DommerDial Cenemts sVDh as teDhnoloHZ transGer and enHineer traininH QroHrams DontinVe to aQQeal to HoWernments
Regulatory Environment A mVltiZear eYQort Dontrol reGorm initiatiWe to reGorm the nation’s eYQort Dontrol reHime CZ the %eQartments oG 4tate $ommerDe and %eGense aDhieWed an imQortant milestone in AQril 214 Xith QVCliDation in the Federal 3eHister oG the mrst in a series oG mnal rVles reWisinH the 64 .Vnitions -ist 64.- and the $ommerDe $ontrol -ist $$-
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
*n earlZ 21 the %eQartment oG $ommerDe’s #VreaV oG *ndVstrZ and 4eDVritZ #*4 annoVnDed a QroQosed rVle transGerrinH Dertain DommerDial satellite sQaDeDraGt and related items maZ noX retVrn to the $ommerDe $ontrol -ist $$- rather than the %eQartment oG 4tate’s 6nited 4tates .Vnitions -ist 64.-
$VrrentlZ additional DateHorZ reWisions are XorLinH their XaZ throVHh the interaHenDZ reWieX QroDess and $ateHorZ 97 satellites is liLelZ neYt in the RVeVe Xith a mnal rVle on reGorms to Dontrols and on satellite and sQaDe items maZ Ce issVed in the sVmmer oG 214
8hile it is estimated that VQ to oG eYistinH sQaDe items QresentlZ on the 64.- Xill Ce transGerred to $$- the inDlVsion oG DommerDial hosted QaZloads Vnder *TA3 DoVld Ho into eGGeDt Gor %eQartment oG %eGenseGVnded seDondarZ or hosted QaZloads AdditionallZ Dertain additions to the $$- haWe Ceen satellite DomQonents QreWioVslZ not DoWered
1rior to this QroQosed rVlinH seWeral international sQaDeDraGt manVGaDtVrers had deWeloQed DommerDial satellite oGGerinHs that are not sVCKeDt to 64 eYQort Dontrol reHVlations XithoVt VsinH *TA3restriDted DomQonents The introdVDtion oG this and other i*TA3Greew satellites 8esternCVilt satellites DontaininH no *TA3restriDted DomQonents has aGGeDted 8estern laVnDh QroWiders as Xell as 64 satellite manVGaDtVrers
&iHht *TA3Gree DommerDial (40 satellites Xere laVnDhed CetXeen 25 and 212 mostlZ on -onH .arDh laVnDh WehiDles TaCle Y lists the *TA3Gree satellites that haWe Ceen laVnDhed sinDe 25
*n QerhaQs Xhat is the mrst siHn oG the imQaDt oG this QroQosed rVlinH in +Vne oG 21 Thales Alenia sXitDhed laVnDh QroWiders Grom -onH .arDh to 4QaDe &YQloration’s FalDon Gor the laVnDh oG TVrLmenistan’s mrst teleDommVniDations satellite aGter the liLelihood oG QotentiallZ CeinH CloDLed CZ 64 eYQort rVles Grom shiQQinH the satellite to $hina Gor laVnDh CeDame more eWident
TaCle lists the *TA3Gree satellites that haWe Ceen laVnDhed sinDe 25
TaCle *TA3Gree 4atellites
Satellite Operator Launch Vehicle Launch Date Satellite Model AQstar 6 A1T -onH .arDh41225TA4 4QaDeCVs 4 $hinasat 6#$hina 4atDom -onH .arDh7527TA4 4QaDeCVs 4 $hinasat $hina 4atDom -onH .arDh628TA4 4QaDeCVs 4 1alaQa %1 *ndosat -onH .arDh812 TA4 4QaDeCVs 4 &YQress A.4 34$$ 1roton 817211 AstriVm &Vrostar &Vtelsat 8$ &Vtelsat -onH .arDh17211 TA4 4QaDeCVs 4 AQstar 7 A1T -onH .arDh 1212 TA4 4QaDeCVs 4 $hinasat 12 $hina 4atDom -onH .arDh1127212 TA4 4QaDeCVs 4
The &VroQean 6nion Qressed ahead Xith its i&6 4QaDe $ode oG $ondVDtw to enDoVraHe satellite oQerators laVnDh aHenDies and other Vsers oG sQaDe to reDoHni[e and resQond to the HroXinH threat Grom sQaDe deCris 8hile the (40 QoQVlation has not Zet sVGGered DatastroQhiD losses dVe to deCris the issVe is CeinH stVdied DloselZ All Vsers oG sQaDe inDlVdinH QroWiders oG insVranDe and mnanDinH Dan Ce aGGeDted CZ the loss oG a satellite in HeosZnDhronoVs orCit #eDaVse oG the Qotential DasDadinH eGGeDt oG a sinHle deCris eWent aDross the HeosZnDhronoVs orCit laVnDh aDtiWitZ maZ Ce aGGeDted as oQerators Donsider their resQonse
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Financial Markets 6nDertaintZ still imQaDts HloCal mnanDial marLets DreatinH miYed resVlts Gor mnanDinH satellite QroHrams 4toDL marLets haWe eYhiCited reDent WolatilitZ Xith inWestors nerWoVs aCoVt the sloXinH HroXth oG the $hinese eDonomZ the DontinVinH HridloDL in eDonomiD QoliDZ in the 64 and the imQaDts to the 64 eDonomZ oG CVdHet seRVestration and the oWerall loXer HroXth rates in satellite DomQanZ earninHs and reWenVe streams Traditional eRVitZ inWestors remain hesitant toXards DommerDial sQaDe startVQs %eCt marLets Gor satellite mnanDinH remain stronH as traditional inWestors remain risL aWerse
&Wen estaClished DomQanies Xith stronH CalanDe sheets are eYQerienDinH diGmDVltZ seDVrinH neX deCt and eRVitZ mnanDinH The QriDinH oG *ntelsat’s *10 Xas redVDed CZ 22 Grom 2 Qer share to 18 Qer share Xith share WolVme oGGered redVDed CZ 11 1roDeeds Xill Ce Vsed to QaZ doXn si[eaCle deCt XhiDh maZ haWe LeQt some QrosQeDtiWe inWestors on the sidelines )oXeWer Heneral reaDtion CZ institVtional inWestors in the rVnVQ to the *10 Xas QositiWe This attitVde Xas driWen CZ the GaDt that the inWestor DommVnitZ has a Hood VnderstandinH oG the DomQanZ’s CVsiness model and oG the F44 CVsiness in Heneral as the DomQanZ’s Conds haWe lonH Ceen traded on QVCliD marLet eYDhanHes Also aidinH inWestors is Hood insiHht into the DomQanZ’s stronH CaDLloH Gor earninHs HroXth noX that it is enterinH a Qeriod oG sVCstantiallZ loXer DaQital inWestment in neX satellites Xhere Gree Dash noX Dan Ce direDted to redVDe oVtstandinH deCt *nDreased eYQosVre throVHh QVCliD eRVitZ stoDL tradinH on HloCal eYDhanHes Xill helQ Xith inWestor aXareness
&YQort Dredit aHenDZ &$A mnanDinH DontinVed to QlaZ a stronH role in DontriCVtinH to satellite CVsiness seDtor HroXth The 64Cased &Y*m #anL has mnanDed 6 oG 64 DommerDial satellite eYQorts oWer the Qast tXo Zears and is eYQeDted to maintain that leWel &Y*m #anL is ramQinH VQ its sVQQort Gor 64 indVstrZ to meet aHHressiWe DomQetition Grom its &VroQean DoVnterQart $oGaDe XhiDh QroWides siHnimDant GVndinH and HVarantees Gor &VroQean satellite indVstrZ eYQort sales XorldXide The loss oG mnanDinH sVQQort Gor *ridiVm’s neYt Heneration satellite sZstem seDVred CZ a 18# loan HVarantee Grom $oGaDe Xas a Xatershed moment Gor &Y*m #anL XhiDh saX KoCs and eDonomiD HroXth miHrate to Wendors in FranDe and *talZ as oQQosed to -oDLheed in the 64 &Y*m #anL raised its QartiDiQation in the satellite mnanDinH seDtor Grom 5. Qer Zear throVHh 2 to 14# in 212 As an eYamQle oG its reneXed eGGort to sVQQort 64 KoC Dreation &Y*m #anL QroWided a loXinterest loan oG 471. to A#4 to DoWer DonstrVDtion oG its tXo #oeinH all eleDtriD satellites a larHe sQaDeDraGt Grom 44- and laVnDhes on 4QaDe9 FalDon WehiDles This aDtion in tVrn Qermitted A#4 to seDVrinH CanL mnanDinH as lenders Xere more DomGortaCle LnoXinH there Xas CaDLinH CZ the 64 eYQort Dredit aHenDZ AdditionallZ the DostDomQetitiWeness oG the alleleDtriD QlatGorm made the QroKeDt risL more QalataCle to lenders tVrninH it Grom a DlassiD eRVitZ risL into an aDDeQtaCle deCt risL &Y*m #anL also reDentlZ QroWided an 87. loan HVarantee to )isQasat to QVrDhase a satellite Grom 0rCital 4DienDes $orQ eWen as $oGaDe sVQQorts the satellite’s laVnDh on the &VroQean Ariane laVnDh WehiDle /eX &$As are emerHinH in $hina and 3Vssia to Xin CVsiness Gor domestiD DontraDtors and to QroWide KoCs and CVild teDhnoloHiDal DaQaCilities
(iWen the lonH leadtimes assoDiated Xith deQloZinH (40 sQaDeDraGt DontinVed aDDess to aGGordaCle DaQital Xill remain DrVDial Gor oQerators AssVminH a DontinVed steadZ HloCal eDonomiD reDoWerZ DertaintZ in the mnanDial marLets Xill QroWide DonmdenDe Gor inWestors to moWe GorXard in oGGerinH mnanDinH Gor satellite oQerators and serWiDes QroWiders Gor CVsiness reDaQitali[ation and eYQansion
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
Space Insurance 4QaDe insVranDe is tZQiDallZ the third larHest Dost DomQonent oG a DommerDial satellite sZstem aGter the Dost oG the satellite and laVnDh serWiDes The sQaDe insVranDe marLet is DharaDteri[ed CZ loX GreRVenDZ and hiHh seWeritZ oG losses a small nVmCer oG insVred eWents hiHhlZ DomQleY teDhniDal VnderXritinH and Dlaims handlinH VniRVe risLs and eYQosVres manVsDriQt QoliDZ XordinHs and Wolatile VnderXritinH resVlts As a resVlt the nVmCer oG insVranDe DomQanies XillinH to Dommit DaQital to sQaDe insVranDe has alXaZs Ceen limited o there are DVrrentlZ aCoVt 4 DomQanies XorldXide QroWidinH sVDh insVranDe The CVsiness DZDle oG sQaDe insVranDe o and oG insVranDe DomQanies in Heneral o is innVenDed CZ XorldXide DatastroQhe losses and inWestment retVrns amonH other GaDtors %Ve to Hood eYQerienDe in sQaDe insVranDe oWer the Qast deDade as Xell as a reDoWerZ in mnanDial marLets there is DVrrentlZ an aCVndanDe oG aWailaCle DaQaDitZ Gor insVrinH satellite laVnDhes This has QVshed QriDinH to historiDallZ loX leWels GaDilitatinH the QlaDement oG insVranDe Gor satellite QroHrams /onetheless adWerse eYQerienDe in sQaDe insVranDe in the Qast Zear has temQered the HroXth oG DaQaDitZ and Dertain teDhnoloHies haWe eYQerienDed inDreased QriDinH and Donstrained insVranDe AlthoVHh this Dan aGGeDt the sDhedVlinH oG laVnDhes there is HenerallZ sVGmDient time CetXeen insVranDe QoliDZ QlaDement and laVnDh to alloX Gor sVDh DontinHenDies
SUPPLEMENTARY QUESTIONNAIRE RESULTS As Qart oG the $0.4TA$ reRVest Gor inQVt Grom indVstrZ QartiDiQants a sVQQlementarZ RVestionnaire Xas QroWided to satellite serWiDe QroWiders The RVestionnaire GoDVses on GaDtors that maZ imQaDt serWiDe QroWiders’ Qlans to QVrDhase and laVnDh satellites A sVmmarZ oG the resQonses to this RVestionnaire is QroWided in TaCle 1 The last DolVmn is a DomQarison to the sVrWeZ resQonses reDeiWed Gor the 21 3eQort
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The WariaCles Gall into three main DateHories mnanDial teDhniDal and reHVlatorZ The 214 sVrWeZ does not reneDt anZ maKor DhanHes in resQondents’ QerDeQtion oG the indVstrZ *n the mnanDial DateHorZ there Xas a sliHht inDrease in the QerDentaHe oG resQondents Xho Gelt HloCal eDonomiD Donditions Xere haWinH a neHatiWe imQaDt on their CVsiness Qlans CVt oQerators Xere more oQtimistiD reHardinH the imQaDt oG indVstrZ Donsolidation and the aCilitZ to DomQete Xith terrestrial serWiDes TeDhniDal DonDerns shoXed imQroWement in some areas inDlVdinH the aWailaCilitZ oG laVnDh WehiDles that meet reRVirements and the reliaCilitZ oG satellite sZstems and laVnDh WehiDles
4liHht inDreases are reQorted in terms oG the imQaDt oG DomQetition Xith terrestrial serWiDes reHional or HloCal eDonomiD Donditions and the Donsolidation oG satellite serWiDe QroWiders %emand Gor satellite serWiDes is less oG an issVe than in 21 thoVHh at 71 QerDent this remains a DonDern Xhen it Domes to QlanninH and laVnDhinH satellites *ntrodVDtion oG neX or VQHraded laVnDh WehiDles also reQresents a DontinVinH issVe 3eneDtinH DontinVinH HloCal eDonomiD Xoes the resQonses to mnanDial DonDerns remained someXhat neHatiWe thoVHh less oG a DonDern than in 21
0Qerators DontinVe to Ce satismed Xith the WarietZ oG satellite sZstems aWailaCle to them )oXeWer there are DonDerns that the introdVDtion oG neX satellite teDhnoloHies is haWinH a neHatiWe imQaDt on Qlans 0Qerators also had miYed oQinions aCoVt laVnDh WehiDles Xith the introdVDtion oG neX and VQHraded WehiDles haWinH some neHatiWe imQaDt *n addition the aWailaCilitZ oG laVnDh WehiDle DontinVes to Ce an issVe The dissatisGaDtion Xith laVnDh WehiDle reliaCilitZ has inDreased dramatiDallZ sinDe the 211 sVrWeZ Xhen none oG the oQerators eYQressed anZ DonDerns aCoVt laVnDh WehiDle reliaCilitZ CVt 214 inQVts do indiDate that imQressions are imQroWinH This Dan liLelZ Ce attriCVted to the reDent strinH oG 1roton GailVres and the 212 4ea -aVnDh GailVre All oG the resQondents resQonded either neVtrallZ or GaWoraClZ to the introdVDtion oG neXVQHraded laVnDh WehiDles
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
TaCle 1 4VrWeZ 2Vestionnaire 4VmmarZ
Question: “To what extent have your company’s plans to purchase or SigniÀFDQW Some Some SigniÀFDQW launch satellites been 2014 vs. Negative Negative No Effect Positive Positive positively or negatively 2013 Impact Impact Impact Impact impacted by the following variables in the past year?” ACilitZ to DomQete Xith terrestrial serWiDes 14 57 2 Increase AWailaCilitZ oG aGGordaCle insVranDe 17 5 Decrease AWailaCilitZ oG mnanDinH 2 71Decrease %emand Gor satellite serWiDes 71 14 14 22 Decrease 3eHional or HloCal eDonomiD Donditions 4 14 4 Increase $onsolidation oG satellite serWiDe QroWiders 57 4 Increase AWailaCilitZ oG reRVired oQeratinH liDenses 2 4 2 Decrease AWailaCilitZ oG eYQort liDenses 14 4 2 14Decrease AWailaCilitZ oG laVnDh WehiDles that meet ZoVr 4 2 2 Decrease reRVirements AWailaCilitZ oG satellite sZstems that meet ZoVr 75 25Decrease reRVirements 3eliaCilitZ oG laVnDh sZstems 4 57Decrease 3eliaCilitZ oG satellite sZstems 4 2 2 Decrease *ntrodVDtion oG neX satellite teDhnoloHies 2 2 2 14 Decrease *ntrodVDtion oG neX or VQHraded laVnDh WehiDles 2 5714 Decrease
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2014 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION FORECAST FOR NON-GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITS
INTRODUCTION
The 214 $ommerDial 4QaDe TransQortation ForeDast Gor /on(eosZnDhronoVs 0rCits /(40 is deWeloQed CZ the Federal AWiation Administration’s 0GmDe oG $ommerDial 4QaDe TransQortation FAA A4T This reQort QroKeDts DommerDial laVnDh demand Gor all sQaDe sZstems deQloZed to /(40 inDlVdinH loX &arth orCit -&0 mediVm &arth orCit .&0 elliQtiDal orCits &-* and eYternal traKeDtories &9T to the .oon or other solar sZstem destinations First DomQiled in 14 the GoreDast assesses QaZloads most liLelZ to seeL DommerDial laVnDh serWiDes dVrinH the neYt 1 Zears $ommerDial laVnDhes as demned Gor this reQort inDlVde those Xhose serWiDes are soVHht on the international marLet *t also inDlVdes 64 domestiD DommerDial laVnDh serWiDes liDensed CZ the FAA sVDh as DommerDial laVnDhes to the *nternational 4QaDe 4tation *44
The 214 reQort helQs 64 indVstrZ as Xell as the 64 (oWernment Vnderstand the sDoQe and trends oG HloCal DommerDial sQaDeniHht demand *t also assists FAA A4T in liDensinH and QlanninH
SUMMARY
The reQort QroKeDts an aWeraHe demand oG 18 laVnDhes Qer Zear XorldXide dVrinH the Qeriod 214 throVHh 22 The laVnDh demand QeaLs in 216 Xith 2 laVnDhes dVe to the DontinVed deQloZment oG *ridiVm Donstellation 4LZCoY *maHinH QlanninH Gor niHhts on 7iHin (alaDtiD’s -aVnDher0ne DommerDial DreX and DarHo laVnDhes to the *44 and 4 laVnDhes Gor other QaZloads laVnDhed DommerDiallZ For the teleDommVniDations seDtor a droQ in laVnDh demand is eYQeDted in 218 Xhen teleDommVniDation Donstellations inDlVdinH *ridiVm mnish deQloZment From 214 to 217 the reQort GoreDasts a nVmCer oG small DommerDial satellites to Ce laVnDhed as *ridiVm 0C 1lanet -aCs 4LZCoY all deQloZ their Donstellations The nVmCer oG small mVltimaniGested satellites droQs oGG toXards the end oG the GoreDast CVt the nVmCer oG laVnDhes remain relatiWelZ steadZ as /A4A CeHins its DommerDial DreX QroHram
The aWeraHe oG 18 laVnDhes a Zear is an inDrease oG little less than a laVnDh a Zear DomQared to last Zear’s GoreDast This inDrease in GoreDasted laVnDhes is driWen QrimarilZ CZ the inDlVsion oG 4LZCoY’s Qlans and additional test niHhts Gor /A4A’s DommerDial DreX QroHram The nVmCer oG /(40 DommerDial laVnDhes is relatiWelZ small DomQared to the total nVmCer oG /(40 laVnDhes Qer Zear For the last 1 Zears there has Ceen an aWeraHe oG 46 /(40 laVnDhers Qer Zear 0nlZ 1 QerDent oG these laVnDhes aQQroYimatelZ 6 laVnDhes Qer Zear Xere DommerDial The GoreDast QrediDts the annVal DommerDial /(40 laVnDh nVmCers Xill more than doVCle the historiDal annVal aWeraHes
-aVnDh demand is diWided into 2 WehiDle si[e Dlasses Xith an aWeraHe oG 124 mediVmto heaWZ WehiDle laVnDhes Qer Zear and 14 small WehiDle laVnDhes Qer Zear Gor 214 to 22 The laVnDhes in the neYt 1 Zears are QredominantlZ DommerDial laVnDhes to the *44 XhiDh reRVire mediVmtoheaWZ WehiDles /inetZ QerDent oG all DommerDial /(40 laVnDhes dVrinH
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
the GoreDast Qeriod Xill laVnDh on mediVmtoheaWZ WehiDles $omQared to last Zear’s reQort the nVmCer oG small laVnDhes has inDreased and the nVmCer oG mediVmtoheaWZ laVnDhes has remained Donstant The inDrease in small laVnDhes is dVe to the inDlVsion oG 4LZCoY *maHinH’s Qlans to Vse .inotaVr $ and -aVnDher0ne to deQloZ its Donstellation A nVmCer oG neX small laVnDhers are CeinH Qlanned and a nVmCer oG intermediate laVnDh WehiDles haWe Ceen introdVDed or Xill Ce introdVDed in the neYt GeX Zears )istoriDallZ the relatiWelZ hiHher QriDe oG small WehiDle laVnDhes aWailaCilitZ oG mVltiQlemaniGest laVnDh serWiDes and DommerDial QaZload CroLeraHe and inteHration serWiDes Gor seDondarZ QaZloads as Xell as other GaDtors disDVssed in the 4atellite and -aVnDh ForeDast Trends seDtion haWe resVlted in the Vse oG GeXer small WehiDle laVnDhes *G these dZnamiDs DhanHe there DoVld Ce a CiGVrDation in laVnDh demand CetXeen the demand Gor heaWZ WehiDles Gor DommerDial DreX and DarHo and larHe satellites and a demand Gor smaller WehiDles Gor the smaller 1LH remote sensinH and teleDommVniDation satellites FiHVre 11 deQiDts the laVnDh distriCVtion CZ QaZload seHment tZQe and WehiDle si[e
FiHVre 11 %istriCVtion oG ForeDasted -aVnDhes CZ 1aZload 4eHment and 7ehiDle 4i[e
Commercial Small Transportation Services 10% 57%
Payload Vehicle Segment Other Size Commercially Launched Satellites Commercial 18% Remote Medium to Heavy Sensing 90% 15% Technology Test and Demonstration Commercial 1% Tele-communications 1%
FiGtZeiHht QerDent oG the /(40 laVnDhes QroKeDted Gor the neYt 1 Zears are Gor DommerDial DreX and DarHo to the *44 This marLs a sliHht inDrease Grom a 57 QerDent share QroKeDted Gor this seHment in the 21 reQort dVe to the inDlVsion oG additional test niHhts Gor neX sQaDeDraGt in /A4A’s DommerDial DreX QroHram The DommerDial DreX laVnDhes to the *44 are sDhedVled Gor sQaDeDraGt still in deWeloQment and all oG these laVnDhes QartlZ relZ on HoWernment GVndinH sVCKeDt to annVal aQQroQriations thereGore teDhniDal or mnanDial issVes DoVld delaZ *44 DreX laVnDhes GVrther AGter DommerDial DreX and DarHo niHhts to the *44 0ther $ommerDiallZ -aVnDhed 4atellites XhiDh is QredominantlZ HoWernment satellites laVnDhed DommerDiallZ is the seDond larHest marLet DomQrisinH 18 QerDent oG the laVnDh marLet $ommerDial remote sensinH marLet DomQrise 14 QerDent oG the marLet Xith 2 QrediDted laVnDhes 14 oG the tXentZ laVnDhes are Qlanned Gor small laVnDh WehiDles TeleDommVniDations satellites DomQrise QerDent oG the laVnDh marLet laVnDhinH 27 QerDent oG the GoreDasted QaZloads all oG them mVltimaniGested or laVnDhed as seDondarZ QaZloads TeleDommVniDations marLet it is eYQeDted to siHnimDantlZ droQ oGG in 218 Xhen the maKor /(40 teleDommVniDations Donstellations *ridiVm (loCalstar 03#$0.. and 0C are deQloZed
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The annVal laVnDh rate dVrinH the neYt 1 Zears is DonsideraClZ hiHher than in the QreWioVs deDade see FiHVre 12 $ommerDial sQaDe transQortation emerHinH DommerDial remote sensinH and teleDommVniDations Donstellation reQlenishments driWe this inDrease -ast Zear’s reQort QrediDted 16 laVnDhes Gor 21 Ten laVnDhes oDDVrred XhiDh Xas Xithin oVr reali[ation GaDtor CVt less than GoreDasted nVmCer )oXeWer 1 DommerDial /(40 niHhts is almost doVCle the 1Zear historiDal aWeraHe oG 6 DommerDial /(40 niHhts annVallZ
FiHVre 12 $ommerDial /(40 -aVnDh )istorZ and 1roKeDted -aVnDh 1lans Number of Launches
The nearterm laVnDh QroKeDtion 214217 is Cased on QVCliDlZ annoVnDed laVnDh demand TaCle 1 identimes all /(40 satellites maniGested Gor 214 throVHh 217 that driWe a laVnDh The reQort QroKeDts 1 /(40 laVnDhes Gor 214 and 1 laVnDhes Gor 215 )oXeWer aQQlZinH a reali[ation GaDtor the aDtVal /(40 laVnDhes are more liLelZ to Ce CetXeen siY and eiHht in 214 and 8 and 1 in 215 This GaDtor is Cased on the diGGerenDe CetXeen QroKeDted laVnDhes and aDtVal laVnDhes in the mWe Zears CeGore the Zear oG the reQort and is onlZ aQQlied to 214 and 215 The mid and Garterm laVnDh QroKeDtions 21822 are Cased on QVCliDallZ aWailaCle inGormation Grom satellite serWiDe QroWiders DorresQondenDe Xith serWiDe QroWiders and estimates oG Xhen the eYistinH satellites Xill reaDh end oG liGe and reRVire reQlaDement METHODOLOGY
This reQort is Cased on FAA A4T researDh and disDVssions Xith the 64 DommerDial sQaDe indVstrZ inDlVdinH satellite serWiDe QroWiders sQaDeDraGt manVGaDtVrers laVnDh serWiDe QroWiders sZstem oQerators HoWernment oGmDes and indeQendent analZsts The reQort eYamines QroHress Gor QVCliDlZ annoVnDed QaZloads satellites sQaDe WehiDles and other sQaDeDraGt and Donsiders the GolloXinH GaDtors
t FinanDinH t 3eHVlatorZ deWeloQments t 4QaDeDraGt manVGaDtVrinH and laVnDh serWiDes DontraDts
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
t *nWestor DonmdenDe t $omQetition Grom sQaDe and terrestrial seDtors and t 0Werall eDonomiD Donditions
This reQort inDlVdes mWe QaZload seHments demned CZ the tZQe oG serWiDe the sQaDeDraGt oGGer t $ommerDial TeleDommVniDations t $ommerDial 3emote 4ensinH t $ommerDial $arHo and $reX TransQortation 4erWiDes inDlVdinH DarHo and hVman sQaDeniHht t 0ther $ommerDiallZ -aVnDhed 4atellites and t TeDhnoloHZ Test and %emonstration
FVtVre deQloZments oG QaZloads that haWe not Zet Ceen annoVnDed are QroKeDted Cased on marLet trends the statVs oG QaZloads DVrrentlZ on orCit and the eDonomiD Donditions oG Qotential QaZload deWeloQers and oQerators FolloXon sZstems and reQlaDement satellites Gor eYistinH sZstems are eWalVated on a DaseCZDase Casis *n some Dases eYQeDted GVtVre aDtiWitZ is CeZond the timeGrame oG the reQort or is not LnoXn Xith enoVHh DertaintZ to merit inDlVsion in the /(40 GoreDast model For the 0ther $ommerDiallZ -aVnDhed 4atellites marLet the GoreDast Vsed nearterm QrimarZ QaZloads HeneratinH indiWidVal DommerDial laVnDhes in the model and estimated GVtVre Zears Cased on historiDal and nearterm aDtiWitZ The QroKeDted laVnDhes Gor DommerDial DarHo and DreX transQortation serWiDes Xere Cased on the /ational AeronaVtiDs and 4QaDe Administration /A4A 215 *44 traGmD model and maniGested laVnDhes Gor DarHo and hVman sQaDeniHht
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TaCle 11 /earTerm /(40 .aniGest oG *dentimed 1rimarZ 1aZloads2
Service Type 2014 2015 2016 2017 Commercial 0C 4 4oZV[ 2 (loCalstar 6 4oZV[ 2 *ridiVm 1 FalDon *ridiVm 1 FalDon Telecommunications 0C 4 4oZV[ 2 *ridiVm 2 %neQr *ridiVm 1 FalDon *ridiVm 1 FalDon Satellites 03#$0.. 8 *ridiVm 1 FalDon *ridiVm 1 FalDon *ridiVm 1 FalDon FalDon 03#$0.. 8 FalDon Commercial Remote 8orldWieX %.$ 14-7 &304 $ 4mall T#% T49/( .ediVm T#% Sensing Satellites Atlas 7 41 4LZ4at 4 .inotaVr $ 4LZ4at1 4LZ4at1 -aVnDher0ne -aVnDher0ne 4LZ4at11 4LZ4at14 -aVnDher0ne -aVnDher0ne 4LZ4at12 4LZ4at15 -aVnDher0ne -aVnDher0ne Commercial $ZHnVs $34 FliHht $ZHnVs $34 FliHht $ZHnVs $34 FliHht $ZHnVs $34 FliHht Cargo and Crew Antares Antares Antares Antares Transportation $ZHnVs $34 FliHht $ZHnVs $34 FliHht $ZHnVs $34 FliHht $ZHnVs $34 FliHht Services3 Antares Antares Antares Antares %raHon $34 FliHht %raHon $34 FliHht %raHon $34 FliHht %raHon $34 FliHht FalDon FalDon FalDon FalDon %raHon $34 FliHht %raHon $34 FliHht %raHon $34 FliHht %raHon $34 FliHht FalDon FalDon FalDon FalDon %raHon $34 FliHht %raHon $34 FliHht %raHon $34 FliHht %raHon $34 FliHht FalDon FalDon FalDon FalDon %raHon $34 FliHht %raHon $34 FliHht %raHon $34 FliHht FalDon FalDon FalDon $reX Test FliHht T#% $reX Test FliHht %ream *44 $reX T#% $haser Atlas 7 $reX Test FliHht T#% *44 $reX T#%
$reX Test FliHht T#% *44 $reX T#%
Other Commercially A4/A30 %neQr 4A0$0. 1A FalDon %raHon-aC 1 FalDon %raHon-aC FalDon Launched Satellites 1A; %neQr Formosat 5 FalDon %VCai4at %neQr (ooHle 9 13*;& (ÚLtVrL 1 7eHa &n.A1 14-7 -. 2$ ,omQsat A %neQr 4A0$0. 1# FalDon %eimos %neQr Technology Test 0rion .1$7 %emo Test 1aDLaHe FalDon and Demonstration %elta *7 )eaWZ )eaWZ Launches Total Payloads (includes 106 74 72 69 secondary) Total Launches 13 19 20 17 Launch Realization 6-8 8-10 Factor Applied
2 /earterm /(40 QaZloads and laVnDhes are Cased on inGormation oCtained Grom disDVssions Xith laVnDh QroWiders satellite manVGaDtVrers sZstem oQerators HoWernment oGmDes and indeQendent analZsts -aVnDh dates DoVld WarZ CetXeen QVCliDlZ aWailaCle inGormation and inGormation Hathered Grom other soVrDes The $ommerDial $arHo and $reX TransQortation 4erWiDes nearterm /(40 maniGest is Cased on the /A4A 214 *44 traGmD model
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
NGSO PAYLOAD MARKET SEGMENTS Commercial Telecommunication Satellites
The /(40 teleDommVniDations satellite marLet is Cased on larHe Donstellations oG small tomediVmsi[ed satellites that QroWide HloCal or nearHloCal DommVniDations DoWeraHe The Donstellations Dan Ce diWided into three maKor DateHories Cased on the GreRVenDies the satellites Vse narroXCand also LnoXn as -ittle -&0 XideCand also LnoXn as #iH -&0 and CroadCand
Telecommunications Launch Demand Summary
From 214 throVHh 217 CetXeen three and GoVr laVnDhes oG /(40 teleDommVniDations satellites Xill oDDVr eaDh Zear There Xill Ce three laVnDhes in 214 as 03#$0.. and the emerHinH .&0 ,aCand CroadCand oQerator 0C laVnDh their satellites and there Xill Ce GoVr laVnDhes in 215 and three laVnDhes a Zear in 216 and 217 as *ridiVm reQlaDes its satellites and (loCalstar laVnDhes additional satellites (loCalstar and 0C are QlanninH to laVnDh on 4oZV[ 2 WehiDles Grom #aiLonVr ,a[aLhstan and FrenDh (Viana resQeDtiWelZ The mrst tXo *ridiVm /&9T satellites are DVrrentlZ Qlanned to laVnDh on a %neQr roDLet in 215 TXo 03#$0.. and seWen *ridiVm /&9T laVnDhes are Qlanned Gor the FalDon WehiDle 0Qerators intend to mnish the reQlaDement oG their Donstellations CeGore 218 so no teleDommVniDations laVnDhes are QroKeDted Gor the sVCseRVent Zears FiHVre 1 QroWides a reQresentation oG teleDommVniDations laVnDh historZ and QroKeDted laVnDh Qlans FiHVre 1 $ommerDial TeleDommVniDations -aVnDh )istorZ and 1roKeDted -aVnDh 1lans Number of Launches
2014 2015 2016 2017 0C 4 4oZV[ 2 (loCalstar 6 4oZV[ 2 *ridiVm 1 FalDon *ridiVm 1 FalDon
0C 4 4oZV[ 2 *ridiVm 2 %neQr *ridiVm 1 FalDon *ridiVm 1 FalDon
03#$0.. 8 FalDon *ridiVm 1 FalDon *ridiVm 1 FalDon *ridiVm 1 FalDon
03#$0.. 8 FalDon
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Narrowband NGSO Telecommunications Systems
/arroXCand -&0 sZstems see TaCle 12 oQerate at GreRenDies CeloX 1()[ These sZstems QroWide narroXCand data DommVniDations sVDh as email tXo XaZ QaHinH and simQle messaHinH Gor aVtomated meter readinH WehiDle neet traDLinH and other remote data monitorinH aQQliDations 03#$0.. is the onlZ GVllZ oQerational narroXCand sZstem Another sZstem AQri[e4tar is QartiallZ oQerational Xith eiHht satellites on orCit mWe oG XhiDh are oQerational Xill reaDh its DaQaDitZ Xhen the GVll Donstellation is deQloZed The AQri[e4tar deQloZment sDhedVle is deQendent on the aWailaCilitZ oG GVndinH and reWenVe Henerated CZ the satellites DVrrentlZ on orCit
TaCle 12 /arroXCand 4Zstems
Satellites System/ Prime Number Orbit First Mass Status Operator Contractor (on orbit/ Type Launch kg (lb) operational) Operational 4Zstem oQerational Xith 41 satellites on orCit *n 212 a 0rCital QrototZQe seDond Heneration satellite Xas laVnDhed to orCit 4DienDes 4 5 as a seDondarZ QaZload on a 03#$0.. $orQ 1st (en FalDon %raHon *44 mission 03#$0.. 1st (en 4127 -&0 17 *n aDDordanDe Xith *44 saGetZ *nD 142 1 reRVirements the satellite Xas 4/$ 2nd (en deQloZed at a loXer altitVde than 2nd (en initiallZ Qlanned in an eGGort to oQtimi[e the saGetZ oG the *44 and its DreXmemCers Under Development 1lanned 12 to satellite sZstem Xith intermittent laVnDhes Cased on aWailaCilitZ oG GVndinH AQri[e4tar TXo satellites are Qlanned Gor -atin4at 4QaDe2Vest 851 22 -&0 22 laVnDh in 214 The DomQanZ AQri[e eYQeDts to DontinVe laVnDhinH 4atellite tXo AQri[e4at satellites eWerZ Zear or tXo Gor as lonH as %neQr DlVster laVnDhes are aWailaCle
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
Wideband NGSO Telecommunications Systems 8ideCand -&0 sZstems see TaCle 1 Vse GreRVenDies in the ranHe oG 16o25 ()[ - and 4Cand GreRVenDies 8ideCand sZstems QroWide moCile WoiDe teleQhonZ and data serWiDes The tXo XideCand sZstems (loCalstar and *ridiVm are on orCit and oQerational
TaCle 1 8ideCand 4Zstems
Satellites System/ Prime Number Orbit First Mass Status Operator Contractor (on orbit/ Type Launch kg (lb) operational) Operational $onstellation on orCit and oQerational &iHht reQlaDement 44-oral satellites laVnDhed in 27 &iHhteen seDond Heneration 1st (en 447 85 satellites laVnDhed on three 4oZV[ 1st (en (loCalstar roDLets in 21 and 211 4iY more Thales 6854 -&0 18 seDond Heneration satellites Xere (loCalstar *nD Alenia 7 1 54 laVnDhed aCoard a 4oZV[ 4QaDe 2nd (en WehiDle in 21 4iY additional 2nd (en satellites ordered from Thales Alenia 4QaDe in 4eQtemCer 212 to laVnDh in 215 $onstellation on orCit and .otorola oQerational FiWe sQare satellites *ridiVm 68 1 5 laVnDhed in FeCrVarZ 22 tXo *ridiVm *ridiVm additional sQares laVnDhed +Vne *ridiVm Thales 72 -&0 17 22 /eYt Heneration sZstem Alenia 8 1 76 $ommVniDations Vnder deWeloQment CZ Thales 4QaDe *ridiVm *nD Alenia 4QaDe .VltiQle laVnDhes *ridiVm /&9T of *ridiVm /&9T Donstellation are /&9T QroKeDted to CeHin in 215
Broadband NGSO Telecommunications Systems
#roadCand sZstems see TaCle 14 reside in /(40 and QroWide hiHhsQeed data serWiDes at ,a and ,VCand freRVenDies 0C /etXorLs -td aDDomQlished an initial deQloZment of its mrst foVr satellites in 21
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System/ Prime Number Orbit First Mass Status Operator Contractor (on orbit/ Type Launch kg (lb) operational)
Under Development The mrst GoVr satellites oG the Thales 0C0C Donstellation laVnDhed in 21 Alenia 447 1 54 .&0 21 /etXorLs -td &iHht more are sDhedVled Gor 4QaDe deQloZment in 214
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Federal Communications Commission Telecommunication Licenses TaCle 15 shoXs Federal $ommVniDations $ommission F$$ teleDommVniDations liDenses issVed to the DommerDial /(40 teleDommVniDations satellite oQerators The three sZstems oriHinallZ deQloZed in the 1s 03#$0.. (loCalstar and *ridiVm are in different staHes of QlanninH deWeloQment and deQloZment of their neX Heneration of satellites
TaCle 15 F$$ TeleDommVniDation -iDenses
Licensee Year of Filing Remarks AVthori[ed 0rCital $ommVniDations $orQoration to modifZ its non 03#$0.. 18 WoiDe nonHeostationarZ moCilesatellite serWiDe sZstem initiallZ liDensed and aVthori[ed in 14 *ridiVm 4atellite AVthori[ed *ridiVm to oQerate feeder VQlinLs in the 21225 21 --$ .oCile4atellite 4erWiDe .44 *ridiVm 4atellite (ranted assiHnment of liDenses and aVthori[ations QertaininH to 22 --$ the oQeration of the *ridiVm .oCile 4atellite 4erWiDe 4Zstem F$$ aVthori[ation for the 03#0.. seDond Heneration satellites to 03#$0.. 28 oQerate Xithin the 6nited 4tates F$$ aVthori[ation to oQerate its seDondHeneration satellites Xithin (loCalstar 211 the 6nited 4tates AQri[e4tar 212 F$$ aVthori[ation to oQerate satellites AQri[esat 1 throVHh 1 F$$ aVthori[ation for 4LZsat 1 and 4LZsat 2 to transmit telemetrZ siHnals and remotesensinH data in the 82584 .)[ freRVenDZ 4LZCoY *maHinH 212 Cand and to reDeiWe Dommand siHnals on Denter freRVenDies of 281 .)[ and 28 .)[ 0C 212 -iDense to oQerate a HateXaZ in )aleiXa )aXaii F$$ aVthori[ation for 1lanet -aCs to transmit imaHe and telemetrZ 1lanet -aCs21 data to mYed earth stations VsinH the 82584 .)[ freRVenDZ Cand and reDeiWe Dommand siHnals in the 225211 .)[ Cand 0C 21-iDense to oQerate a HateXaZ in 7ernon TeYas
Globalstar (loCalstar *nD is a QVCliDlZ traded XideCand sZstem oQerator QrimarilZ serWinH the DommerDial HloCal satellite WoiDe and data marLets Their fVll serWiDe offerinH CeHan in 2 The DomQanZ is DVrrentlZ in the QroDess of aVHmentinH its onorCit satellite Donstellation
(loCalstar’s mrst Heneration satellite Donstellation Donsisted of 52 satellites 48 oQerational satellites QlVs 4 onorCit sQares (loCalstar’s oriHinal Donstellation CeHan eYQerienDinH QroClems Xith its 4Cand amQlimer in 21 *n 27 the 4Cand QroClem CeHan affeDtinH the DomQanZ’s WoiDe and tXoXaZ data serWiDes The Donstellation’s simQleY oneXaZ -Cand data serWiDes Xere not affeDted CZ these QroClems To mitiHate the 4Cand QroClems and CeHin VQdatinH the onorCit Donstellation (loCalstar laVnDhed its mnal eiHht mrst Heneration reQlaDement satellites on tXo 4oZV[ WehiDles in .aZ and 0DtoCer 27 The addition of these satellites to the Donstellation did not restore sVfmDient DaQaDitZ for fVll WoiDe and tXo XaZ data serWiDe
As a resVlt of the 4Cand QroClems (loCalstar’s reWenVes started to sliQ in 26 *n resQonse to these deDlininH reWenVes (loCalstar loXered QriDes for its DVstomers and deWeloQed a simQleY serWiDe QrodVDt Dalled the 4atellite 1oVr l’0CserWation de la Terra
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
410T 4atellite (loCal FiHVre 14 1VCliDlZ 3eQorted (loCalstar AnnVal 3eWenVe 1ositioninH 4Zstem (14 .essenHer *n +VlZ 2 (loCalstar VQloaded a seDond Heneration 410T 4atellite (14 .essenHer softXare VQHrade to the eYistinH Donstellation
ArianesQaDe throVHh its 4tarsem afmliate laVnDhed 24 (loCalstar seDond Heneration satellites The mrst 6 satellites Xere laVnDhed into orCit in 21 the neYt 12 laVnDhed in 211 and the remaininH 6 in FeCrVarZ 21 All laVnDhes Xere from #aiLonVr ,a[aLhstan on 4oZV[ roDLets DarrZinH siY satellites Qer laVnDh (loCalstar reQorted siHnimDant imQroWement in serWiDe aWailaCilitZ and RValitZ after the neX Heneration satellites Dame online folloXinH onorCit testinH
Thales Alenia 4QaDe TA4 deWeloQed and CVilt the 25 seDond Heneration satellites inDlVdinH one HroVnd sQare for (loCalstar ToHether Xith the 8 reQlaDement satellites laVnDhed in 27 (loCalstar has a 2satellite sZstem sinDe the initial deQloZment of its neX Donstellation DonDlVded
(loCalstar reQorted it is in neHotiations Xith TA4 for an oQtion of manVfaDtVrinH 2 additional satellites in the DominH Zears The sQaDeDraft XoVld Ce sQares for the eYistinH neet and laVnDh as needed An order for manVfaDtVrinH of the mrst siY Xas QlaDed Xith TA4 in 4eQtemCer 212 tentatiWelZ to laVnDh in 215 $VrrentlZ there is no laVnDh DontraDt for these additional satellites and anZ laVnDh XoVld Ce DontinHent on the health of the satellites on orCit Therefore this reQort does not QroKeDt additional laVnDhes CeZond 215
FiHVre 14 shoXs the deDline in (loCalstar’s reWenVes from 26 to 2 and a rise CeHinninH in 21 dVe to hiHher reWenVes from the 410T 4atellite (14 .essenHer serWiDe and simQleY data serWiDes and imQroWements in dVQleY and simQleY serWiDes after seDond Heneration satellite deQloZment #eDaVse of the DommerDial sVDDess of the 410T 4atellite (14 .essenHer serWiDe (loCalstar Qlans to introdVDe additional dVQleY and simQleY QrodVDts and serWiDes throVHh its reneXed Donstellation
Iridium *ridiVm $ommVniDations *nD is the sVDDessor to the oriHinal *ridiVm --$ that CVilt and laVnDhed the *ridiVm satellite Donstellation in the late 1s *ridiVm $ommVniDations *nD oXns and oQerates a Donstellation of 72 oQerational DommerDial DommVniDations satellites 66 aDtiWe sQaDeDraft and 6 orCitinH fVnDtional sQares These satellites DomQrise a fVllZ oQerational sZstem to QroWide serWiDe Vntil at least 215 *n 21 *ridiVm seleDted TA4 as the Qrime DontraDtor for the sZstem deWeloQment of a seDond Heneration satellite Donstellation named *ridiVm /&9T &aDh satellite in the neX Donstellation Dan DarrZ a hosted QaZload in addition to the QrimarZ DommVniDations QaZload *ridiVm is marLetinH this oQQortVnitZ to Qotential DVstomers Xhile the satellites are Vnder DonstrVDtion
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*ridiVm annoVnDed that 4QaDe9 FiHVre 15 1VCliDlZ 3eQorted *ridiVm AnnVal 3eWenVe Xill Ce the QrimarZ laVnDh QroWider for *ridiVm /&9T *ridiVm also siHned a DontraDt Xith *nternational 4QaDe $omQanZ ,osmotras QroWider of the %neQr laVnDh WehiDle to Ce a sVQQlemental QroWider of laVnDh serWiDes for *ridiVm /&9T The DomQanZ reQortedlZ Qlans to laVnDh 72 satellites 66 to enter aDtiWe serWiDe and 6 to serWe as onorCit sQares dVrinH a Zear Qeriod sDhedVled to CeHin in 215 The mrst tXo *ridiVm /&9T satellites are DVrrentlZ Qlanned to laVnDh on a %neQr roDLet in 215 The rest of the *ridiVm /&9T Donstellation Xill laVnDh on aQQroYimatelZ 7 FalDon laVnDhes DarrZinH 1 satellites eaDh /ine *ridiVm /&9T satellites Xill remain HroVnd sQares *ridiVm reWenVes are Qresented in FiHVre 15
ORBCOMM #etXeen 15 and 1 03#$0.. deQloZed a narroXCand Donstellation of 5 satellites 27 of XhiDh are oQerational todaZ *t is the onlZ DomQanZ to haWe fVllZ deQloZed a sZstem that QroWides loXCandXidth QaDLet data serWiDes XorldXide 03#$0.. foDVses on QroWidinH data serWiDes for maDhinetomaDhine aQQliDations
*n 28 siY 03#$0.. satellites laVnDhed on a 3Vssian $osmos . WehiDle to CeHin reQlaDinH the leHaDZ Donstellation deQloZed in 1 0ne of the Qlanned VQHrades to the Donstellation Xas the addition of the AVtomatiD *dentimDation 4Zstem A*4 a sea Wessel identimDation and traDLinH sZstem 4hortlZ after deQloZment all siY satellites failed leaWinH 03#$0.. Xith no A*4 DaQaCilitZ for its sVCsDriCed DVstomers
To remediate the serWiDe shortfall -VYsQaDe a FiHVre 16 1VCliDlZ 3eQorted 03#$0.. AnnVal 3eWenVe sVCsidiarZ of the Qrime satellite manVfaDtVrer 0)# 4Zstem deWeloQed 7esselsat 1 and 7esselsat 2 7esselsat 1 laVnDhed into eRVatorial orCit on a 1olar 4atellite -aVnDh 7ehiDle 14-7 roDLet in %eDemCer 211 and 7esselsat 2 laVnDhed into Qolar orCit on a -onH .arDh roDLet in +anVarZ 212 #oth satellites laVnDhed as QiHHZCaDL QaZloads 03#$0.. is the eYDlVsiWe liDensee for the A*4 data DolleDted CZ 7essel4at 1 and
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
7essel4at 2 These tXo A*4onlZ satellites Xill not Ce inteHrated into 03#$0..’s DVrrent or seDond Heneration 0(2 Donstellation *nstead theZ Xill serWe as a sVQQlement to these Donstellations
03#$0..’s Qlans for reQlaDinH its DVrrent Donstellation are VnderXaZ 4eWenteen satellites of the 18satellite seDond Heneration Donstellation are either Vnder DonstrVDtion or aXaitinH laVnDh All satellites in the Donstellation inDlVde A*4 QaZloads 03#$0.. ordered the satellites in 28 from 4ierra /eWada $orQoration 4/$ Xith sVCDontraDtors #oeinH and *TT $orQoration *n 211 03#$0.. annoVnDed its Qlan to Vse 4QaDe9’s FalDon WehiDle to laVnDh the onstellation
A QrototZQe 03#$0.. 0(2 satellite Xas Darried CZ the 4QaDe9 FalDon WehiDle as a seDondarZ QaZload on a DarHo resVQQlZ mission to the *44 in 0DtoCer 212 The laVnDh met its QrimarZ oCKeDtiWe of sendinH the %raHon sQaDeDraft to the *44 CVt did not deQloZ the 03#$0.. satellite into the desired orCit dVe to an anomalZ on one of the FalDon ’s mrst staHe enHines To remain fVllZ DomQliant Xith the safetZ Qlan aQQroWed for %raHon deliWerZ to the *44 4QaDe9 did not haWe the FalDon eYeDVte the seDond CVrn neDessarZ to deliWer the 03#$0.. satellite into a hiHher orCit
*n 214 the remaininH 0(2 satellites Xill CeHin to laVnDh aCoard FalDon WehiDles in 214 #etXeen 8 and 12 satellites Xill Ce laVnDhed in 214 and the remainder of the 18satellite Donstellation are liLelZ to laVnDh in 215
03#$0.. reWenVes are Qresented in FiHVre 16
Aprize Satellite AQri[e 4atellite *nD Qlans to deQloZ a 12satellite sZstem deQendinH on fVndinH oQQortVnities and DVstomer demand for data DommVniDation and A*4 data serWiDe A total of eiHht AQri[e4tar satellites XeiHhinH 1 LiloHrams 22 QoVnds eaDh laVnDhed as seDondarZ QaZloads on 3Vssian %neQr WehiDles tXo satellites a Zear in 22 24 2 211 and 21 The 2 oriHinal satellites laVnDhed in 22 are no lonHer in orCit TXo more satellites are eYQeDted to Ce deQloZed CZ another %neQr mVltimanifest laVnDh in 214 Three of the eiHht satellites on orCit are not oQerational The DomQanZ needs to laVnDh 5 more satellites to DomQlete the Donstellation as Xell as anZ reQlaDement satellites needed *n the Zears folloXinH 214 the DomQanZ eYQeDts to DontinVe laVnDhinH tXo AQri[e4at satellites eWerZ Zear or tXo for as lonH as %neQr DlVster laVnDhes are aWailaCle AnZ additional satellites are liLelZ to laVnDh as seDondarZ QaZloads and not Henerate demand for a laVnDh
O3b 0C /etXorLs headRVartered in 4t +ohn +erseZ $hannel *slands Qlans to QroWide CroadCand DonneDtiWitZ to VnderserWed Qarts of the Xorld Xith sVQQort and fVndinH from hiHh Qromle inWestors inDlVdinH maKor (&0 DommerDial satellite oQerator 4&4 (ooHle -iCertZ (loCal and )4#$
The 0C Donstellation Xill oQerate in the ,aCand in an eRVatorial orCit Xith a minimVm of mWe satellites to DoWer 45 deHrees of latitVde aroVnd the &RVator .ore satellites Dan Ce added as needed to meet demand
0fferinH to CridHe the HaQ CetXeen DVrrent satellites and mCer oQtiD DaCles 0C
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/etXorLs Qlans to QroWide mCerliLe trVnLinH DaQaDitZ to teleDommVniDations oQerators and CaDLhaVl direDtlZ to ( $ellVlar and 8i.A9 toXers 1rior to the laVnDh of its mrst foVr satellites in 21 0C had Ceen sVDDessfVl in haWinH its DaQaDitZ CooLed CZ reHional teleDommVniDations DomQanies and *nternet serWiDe QroWiders 0C /etXorLs teamed Xith 74AT satellite serWiDes QroWider )arris $aQ3oDL to deliWer DonneDtiWitZ solVtions to maritime Dlients inDlVdinH 3oZal $ariCCean $rVises
TA4 is Vnder DontraDt to CVild 16 DommVniDations satellites for 0C 0C has a laVnDh serWiDes aHreement Xith ArianesQaDe for tXo more 4oZV[ laVnDhes from FrenDh (Viana &aDh 4oZV[ Xill deQloZ foVr 0C satellites in .&0 in the eRVatorial Qlane
Telecommunications Satellite Fleet Replacement after 2022 /(40 teleDommVniDations satellites laVnDhed in the 1s and earlZ 2s had an estimated desiHn life of foVr 03#$0.. to seWen and a half (loCalstar Zears see TaCle 16 )oXeWer the maKoritZ of these satellites are still on orCit and DontinVe to QroWide teleDommVniDations serWiDes most of the mrst Heneration (loCalstar *ridiVm and 03#$0.. Donstellations haWe eYDeeded their desiHn life CZ tXo to three times For mnanDial reasons manZ of the satellites Xere not reQlaDed Xhen their estimated desiHn life ended 0Qerators Xere aCle to DontinVe QroWidinH serWiDes Vntil seDond Heneration sQaDeDraft Xere readZ
/oX most of the satellites laVnDhed or QreQared for laVnDh CZ /(40 DommVniDations satellite oQerators haWe an estimated desiHn life of 1 to 15 Zears XhiDh QlaDes the estimated reQlaDement dates CeZond 222 The eYDeQtion is 03#$0.. Xith a minimVm desiHn life estimate of a DonserWatiWe mWe Zears *f anZ of these satellites need to Ce reQlaDed Xithin the 214 22 Qeriod theZ Xill liLelZ Ce laVnDhed as QiHHZCaDL QaZloads VnliLelZ to Henerate demand for a dediDated laVnDh
TaCle 16 $ommerDial TeleDommVniDations 4atellite 4Zstems’ %esiHn -ife 1st Generation 2nd or Current Satellite Satellite Design Current Status Generation Satellite System Life Design Life (loCalstar 75 Zears .ost of the satellites on orCit QartiallZ oQerational 15 Zears 1 Zears desiHn *ridiVm5 Zears .ost of the satellites on orCit oQerational 15 Zears QroKeDted 03#$0.. 4 Zears .ost of the satellites on orCit oQerational .ore than 5 Zears 8 on orCit 6 in serWiDe laVnDhinH more to DomQlete AQri[e 4atellite /A 1 Zears sZstem 4 satellites in orCit QartiallZ oQerational -aVnDhinH 8 0C /etXorL/A 1 Zears more to DomQlete sZstem
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites 3emote sensinH refers to anZ orCital Qlatform Xith sensors trained on &arth to Hather data aDross the eleDtromaHnetiD sQeDtrVm for HeoHraQhiD analZsis militarZ Vse meteoroloHZ DlimatoloHZ or other Vses The remote sensinH indVstrZ HenerallZ DomQrises three marLets t Aerial imaHerZ t 4atellite imaHerZ t 7alVeadded serWiDes inDlVdinH HeoHraQhiD information sZstems (*4
(*4 Donsists of imaHes oCtained from airDraft or satellites inteHrated Xith laZers of information VsVallZ DVstomi[ed aDDordinH to Vser needs *t DonstitVtes the larHest Qart of the indVstrZ Coth in terms of demand and reWenVe Heneration
The satellite imaHerZ marLet is DomQosed of DomQanies that aDRVire and oQerate their oXn remote sensinH satellites These inDlVde AirCVs %efense and 4QaDe #laDL#ridHe %iHital(loCe %.$ *nternational *maHinH *maHe4at .%A (eosQatial 4erWiDes 1lanet -aCs and 4LZCoY *maHinH /eX DomQanies liLe #laDL4LZ (loCal and 1laneti2 are enterinH the marLet For all of these DomQanies (*4 QrodVDts and serWiDes are the main Henerator of reWenVe *n some Dases imaHerZ oCtained from HoWernment satellites is made aWailaCle to DVstomers throVHh a (*4 DomQanZ For eYamQle imaHerZ from tXo 1leiades satellites oQerated CZ the FrenDh HoWernment is made aWailaCle throVHh AirCVs %efense and 4QaDe *n other Dases the oQeration of remote sensinH satellites the imaHerZ oCtained from them and the sales of (*4 QrodVDts and serWiDes is manaHed throVHh a QVCliD QriWate QartnershiQ 111 The Terra4A39 and Tan%&.9 satellites are manaHed CZ a 111 that inDlVdes the (erman 4QaDe AHenDZ %-3 and AirCVs %efense and 4QaDe
FiHVre 17 $ommerDial 3emote 4ensinH -aVnDh )istorZ and 1roKeDted -aVnDh 1lans Number of Launches
2014 2015 2016 2017 8orldWieX Atlas 7 %.$ 14-7 &304 $ T49/( .ediVm T#% 4mall T#% 4LZ4at 4 .inotaVr $ 4LZ4at1 4LZ4at1 -aVnDher0ne -aVnDher0ne 4LZ4at11 4LZ4at14 -aVnDher0ne -aVnDher0ne 4LZ4at12 4LZ4at15 -aVnDher0ne -aVnDher0ne
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This foreDast DaQtVres onlZ DommerDial remote sensinH satellite DomQanies that QroDVre internationallZ DomQeted laVnDhes and FAA liDensed laVnDhes *t does not inDlVde orHani[ations that deQend on a QartiDVlar laVnDh QroWider either CeDaVse of a Dommitment to a national indVstrial Case or throVHh a QreWioVslZ estaClished aHreement Xith the laVnDh QroWider *n those instanDes the laVnDh is not Donsidered internationallZ DomQeted
The maKor DomQanies oQeratinH or aDtiWelZ deWeloQinH remote sensinH satellites aDross the HloCe are Qromled in TaCle 17 These satellites haWe Ceen or are liLelZ to Ce laVnDhed DommerDiallZ
TaCle 17 $ommerDial 3emote 4ensinH 4Zstems
Highest Revisit System Operator Manufacturer Satellites Mass Resolution Time Launch kg (lb) (m) (hrs.) Year 0Qerational 6nder %eWeloQment
$*$&30 (eo0QtiDsT#% $*$&30 112 T#% T#% T#% 217
%aVria %eimos AerosQaDe %aVria 1erseVs 0 1 22 22 24 215 1erseVs and &leDnor AerosQaDe 18 %eimos %.$ %.$ *nternational 44T- %.$ 1 5 771 124214 *maHinH -td
%oWe 1lanet -aCs 1lanet -aCs %oWe 11 1 22 524214
&304 A 28 617 15 2 *maHe4at *srael AirDraft &304 &304 # 5 771 7 24288 26 *nternational *ndVstries &304 $ 5 771 7 216 (eneral %ZnamiDs (eo&Ze1 7 2 41 51 28 (eo&Ze %iHital(loCe -oDLheed (eo&Ze2 2 87 4 61 4 51 216 .artin -oDLheed *,0/04 %iHital(loCe *,0/04 816 1 8 1 72 1 .artin 1lanet*2 1lanet*2 T#% 1lanet*2 112 75 165 /A /AT#% %raQer -aCs 0mni&arth 0mni&arth 0mni&arth %ZnetiDs 5 1 12 T#% 24 T#% 118 Harris #all 2ViDL#ird %iHital(loCe 2ViDL#ird 2 4 661421 AerosQaDe 3A%A34AT1 2 75 6 5 8 4872 15 3A%A34AT .%A .%A 3A%A34AT2 2 15 4 84 4872 27 3$. 1 2 2 645 T#% T#% 218 3aQid&Ze 3aQid&Ze .%A 3aQid&Ze 1515 652428 A( 4LZ#oY 4LZ#oY 4LZ4at1 1 2 1 21 4LZ4at 24 *maHinH *maHinH 4LZ4at2 1 2 1 214 Terra4A39 Terra4A39 1 2 2 255 264 27 #.#F%-3 and AstriVm Tan%&.9 1 2 2 255 5 264 21 AstriVm Tan%&.9 Terra4A3/( T#% T#% T#% 215 8orld7ieX1 2 5 5 51 5 411 27 #all 8orld7ieX%iHital(loCe 8orld7ieX2 2 8 6 175 5 268 2 AerosQaDe 8orld7ieX 2 8 6 175 5 T#% 214
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
Licenses issued by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
The 64 /ational 0DeaniD and AtmosQheriD Administration /0AA liDenses 64 DommerDial remote sensinH sZstems in aDDordanDe Xith the -and 3emote 4ensinH 1oliDZ ADt of 12 There haWe Ceen 5 remote sensinH liDenses issVed or amended sinDe 1 see AQQendiY 4eWen liDenses Xere issVed in 21 and tXo in earlZ 214 see TaCle 18
TaCle 18 /0AA 3emote 4ensinH -iDenses *ssVed in 21
Date License Licensee Remarks Granted or Updated 4oVthern 4tars 21821-iDense issVed for oQeration of DVCesat 4LZ$VCe 4aint -oVis 6niWersitZ 6221-iDense issVed for oQeration of DVCesat $011&3 /anosatism T#% -iDense issVed for oQeration of DVCesat ArdVsat 1 6niWersitZ of AlaCama 1721-iDense issVed for oQeration of DVCesat $harHer4at1 HVntsWille TeledZne #roXn 11521-iDense issVed for .64&4 &nHineerinH 6niWersitZ of HaXai|i at T#% -iDense issVed for HaXai’i4at1 . noa -iDense issVed for FloDL1 Donstellation DonsistinH of 28 6 DVCesat 1lanet -aCs *nD 2621 satellites
Remote Sensing Launch Demand Summary
The DommerDial remote sensinH indVstrZ is DharaDteri[ed CZ relatiWelZ staCle satellite reQlaDement sDhedVles -aVnDhes of DommerDial remote sensinH satellites Xill taLe QlaDe at an aWeraHe of tXo Qer Zear throVHh the foreDast Qeriod The siHnimDant inDrease in the aWeraHe from last Zear’s QroKeDtion of less than a laVnDh a Zear reneDts the inDlVsion of 4LZCoY *maHinH laVnDhes in this Zear’s foreDast 4LZCoY aDRVired fVndinH to sVQQort its initial Donstellation of 12 satellites and the sVDDessfVl laVnDh of its mrst satellite late in 21 1eaLs in the nVmCer of laVnDhes Dan Ce seen dVrinH 216 and 218 reneDtinH QroKeDted deQloZment of satellites oQerated CZ AirCVs %efense and 4QaDe *maHe4at and 4LZCoY FiHVre 17 QroWides a laVnDh historZ and QroKeDted laVnDh Qlans for DommerDial remote sensinH satellites
$ommerDial remote sensinH satellites in the nearterm Qortion of this reQort 214217 haWe Ceen annoVnDed CZ their resQeDtiWe DomQanies are Vnder DonstrVDtion and are sDhedVled for a laVnDh 4atellites QroKeDted for the latter Qortion of the reQort 21822 are Cased on QVClished statements reHardinH the serWiDe liWes of satellites DVrrentlZ oQeratinH on orCit
DigitalGlobe &staClished in 12 %iHital(loCe is a DommerDial hiHhresolVtion remote sensinH satellite oQerator and (*4 QroWider headRVartered in -onHmont $olorado The DomQanZ oQerates imaHinH satellites and QroWides (*4 QrodVDts VsinH satellite and aerial imaHerZ FolloXinH a merHer Xith (eo&Ze *nD on +anVarZ 1 21 %iHital(loCe DVrrentlZ oQerates mWe remote sensinH satellites *,0/04 (eo&Ze1 2ViDL#ird 8orld7ieX1 and 8orld7ieX2 8orld7ieX Xill laVnDh in 214 aCoard an Atlas 7 41 WehiDle Another satellite (eo&Ze2 is DVrrentlZ Vnder DonstrVDtion and Xill Ce stored as a HroVnd sQare
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%iHital(loCe’s mrst satellite 2ViDL#ird Xas laVnDhed in 21 and is QroKeDted to DontinVe oQeratinH Vntil late 21 8orld7ieX is eYQeDted to haWe a serWiDe life of VQ to 12 Zears %iHital(loCe’s tXo other satellites 8orld7ieX1 and 8orld7ieX2 are eYQeDted to reaDh end of oQerational life in the seDond RVarter of 218 and the mrst RVarter of 221 resQeDtiWelZ
The 64 /ational (eosQatial*ntelliHenDe AHenDZ /(A QartiallZ fVnded the deWeloQment of the DVrrent Heneration of %iHital(loCe inDlVdinH the former (eo&Ze satellites *n 21 /(A aXarded Coth %iHital(loCe and (eo&Ze 1Zear DontraDts Xorth VQ to 75 Cillion as Qart of the &nhanDed7ieX QroHram These DontraDts intended to eYtend /(A’s aCilitZ to taQ imaHerZ from the QriWate seDtor and helQ HVarantee the aWailaCilitZ of DommerDial remote sensinH QrodVDts into the deDade *n +VlZ 212 dVe to Qlanned DVts to the &nhanDed7ieX CVdHet %iHital(loCe and (eo&Ze annoVnDed Qlans to merHe a QroDess DomQleted in +anVarZ 21
DMC International Imaging
%.$ *nternational *maHinH -td %.$ii Cased in the 6nited ,inHdom oQerates the %isaster .onitorinH $onstellation %.$ on Cehalf of HoWernments that QroWide the satellites %.$ii is a XhollZ oXned sVCsidiarZ of 4VrreZ 4atellite TeDhnoloHZ -td 44T- The Donstellation’s QrimarZ QVrQose is to distriCVte imaHerZ for DommerDial and hVmanitarian QVrQoses
The oriHinal %.$ Donstellation Alsat1 #eiKinH1 #il4at /iHeriasat1 and 6,%.$1 CeDame fVllZ oQerational in 26 Xith satellites eWenlZ distriCVted in a sinHle sVn sZnDhronoVs orCit 440 FoVr additional satellites Xere laVnDhed CetXeen 2 and 211 and the DVrrent retinVe of oQeratinH satellites inDlVde $hina’s #eiKinH1 /iHeria’s /iHeriasat2 and /9 4Qain’s %&*.041 and the 6nited ,inHdom’s 6,%.$2 The satellites orCit at an altitVde of 7 Lilometers 45 miles /iHeria’s satellites /iHeriasat2 and /9 Xere laVnDhed in 211 and reQresent the latest memCers of the %.$ Donstellation
*n +Vne 211 %.$ii siHned a seWenZear deal Xith $hinaCased TXentZ First $entVrZ AerosQaDe TeDhnoloHZ $omQanZ -td 21AT to lease the imaHinH DaQaDitZ aCoard a three satellite Donstellation Dalled %.$ The lease alloXs 21AT to oCtain timelZ imaHerZ XithoVt QroDVrinH and oQeratinH a Donstellation themselWes The Donstellation desiHned and manVfaDtVred CZ 44T- Xill Ce oXned and oQerated CZ %.$ii and is QroKeDted to laVnDh in 215 aCoard an *ndian 14-79- WehiDle &aDh %.$ satellite Xill QroWide onemeter QanDhromatiD and foVrmeter mVltisQeDtral imaHinH
Airbus Defense and Space
AirCVs %efense and 4QaDe AirCVs oQerates the FrenDh remote sensinH Donstellation 4atellite 1oVr l’0CserWation de la Terre 410T and the (erman sZnthetiD aQertVre radar 4A3 remote sensinH missions Terra4A39 and Tan%&.9 *t also handles sales of imaHerZ oCtained CZ tXo 1lÏiades satellites oQerated CZ $/&4 the %&*.041 satellite oQerated CZ %.$ *nternational *maHinH on Cehalf of the 4Qanish HoWernment and Formosat2 oQerated CZ the HoWernment of TaiXan
The Terra4A39 and Tan%&.9 missions are QVCliD QriWate QartnershiQs CetXeen the (erman AerosQaDe $entre %-3 the (erman Federal .inistrZ of &dVDation and 3esearDh and AirCVs %-3 oQerates the tXo identiDal satellites and is resQonsiCle for the sDientimD Vse of the data AirCVs holds the eYDlVsiWe DommerDial eYQloitation riHhts for imaHerZ aDRVired CZ Terra4A39 and Tan%&.9
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
The Terra4A39 .ission is Qerformed CZ tXo satellites Terra4A39 and Tan%&.9 eaDh DontriCVtinH a Qart of the imaHinH resoVrDes The Tan%&.9 .ission Vses the same tXo satellites to Qerform Dlose formation niHht Xith distanDes of 2m The tXo satellites Xill nZ in this formation Vntil 215 The Hoal of the Tan%&.9 .ission is to Henerate a homoHeneoVs hiHhRValitZ HloCal %iHital &leWation .odel
The mrst Terra4A39 satellite laVnDhed aCoard a 3Vssian %neQr WehiDle in 27 The seDond Terra4A39 satellite Xas laVnDhed in 21 also aCoard a %neQr AirCVs eYQeDts these satellites to fVnDtion mWe Zears CeZond 218
8orL is DVrrentlZ VnderXaZ for a seDond Heneration of 4A3 satellites Dalled Terra4A39 /eYt (eneration The laVnDh is Qlanned for laVnDh in 218 /o laVnDh WehiDle has Ceen Ceen seleDted %-3 and AirCVs are also disDVssinH a neYt Heneration of satellites CeZond the 218 timeframe to reQlaDe the mrst Heneration Terra4A39 satellites These are not inDlVded in the reQort CeDaVse sZstem demnition has not started As Xith Terra4A39 and Tan%&.9 imaHerZ from these fVtVre satellites is eYQeDted to Ce aWailaCle for sDientimD and DommerDial QVrQoses
The $entre /ational d’&tVdes 4Qatiales $/&4 FranDe’s sQaDe aHenDZ Xas maKoritZ shareholder of 410T *maHe Vntil 2 Xhen resQonsiCilitZ for the sZstem transferred to &A%4 AstriVm in 211 the DomQanZ formed the (eo *nformation %iWision to sQeDimDallZ manaHe the 410T satellites and data sales &A%4 AstriVm has sinDe aDRVired and CVilt 410T6 and 410T7 the former laVnDhed in 21 and the latter Qlanned for a 214 laVnDh *n 214 throVHh merHers &A%4 AstriVm CeDame Qart of AirCVs (roVQ The 410T Donstellation Donsists of three satellites 410T4 laVnDhed in 18 410T5 laVnDhed in 22 and 410T6 laVnDhed in 212 410T7 is Qlanned for laVnDh in 214 aCoard an *ndian 14-7 WehiDle The laVnDh of 410T7 is not inDlVded in the foreDast CeDaVse it Xas not internationallZ DomQeted liLe 410T6 410T7 Xill Ce laVnDhed aCoard a 14-7 as a resVlt of a QartnershiQ CetXeen $/&4 and the *ndian 4QaDe 3esearDh 0rHani[ation *430
BlackBridge
#erlinCased #laDL#ridHe oQerates the 3aQid&Ze Donstellation of mWe satellites and (*4 imaHerZ 3aQid&Ze A( DhanHed its name to #laDL#ridHe in /oWemCer 21 The DomQanZ has additional ofmDes in -VYemCoVrH $anada and the 6nited 4tates
The 3aQid&Ze satellites QroWide Xidearea reQetitiWe DoWeraHe and 5meterQiYelsi[e mVltisQeDtral imaHerZ .aD%onald %ettXiler and AssoDiates .%A Xas the Qrime DontraDtor for the deWeloQment of the satellites resQonsiCle for desiHn and imQlementation .%A sVCDontraDted 4VrreZ 4atellite -td 44T- in the 6, to sVQQlZ the CVs and inteHrate the satellites Xhereas +ena0QtroniL from (ermanZ QroWided the Damera QaZloads All mWe satellites Xere laVnDhed aCoard a %neQr laVnDh WehiDle from #aiLonVr ,a[aLhstan on AVHVst 2 28 The Donstellation is eYQeDted to remain in serWiDe Vntil at least 21 foVr Zears CeZond the desiHned serWiDe life
ThoVHh QlanninH for the neYt Heneration of satellites is VnderXaZ #laDL#ridHe has not released details QVCliDlZ %VrinH 214 the DomQanZ eYQeDts to QroWide details aCoVt its fVtVre satellite deWeloQment Qlans The foreDast assVmes that #laDL#ridHe Xill seDVre fVndinH for a reQlaDement Donstellation Xith a laVnDh QroKeDted in 218 a Zear Cefore the antiDiQated end of life of the oriHinal satellites
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BlackSky Global, LLC
64Cased #laDL4LZ (loCal Xas issVed a /0AA liDense aVthori[inH deQloZment of an i&arth oCserWation satellite sZstemw The sZstem XhiDh is Qlanned for laVnDh in 215 Xill featVre one or more satellites in a Qolar orCit Xith an altitVde of CetXeen 45 Lm and 6 Lm #eDaVse no teDhniDal details are QVCliD the #laDL4LZ sZstem is not inDlVded in the foreDast
Dauria Aerospace/Elecnor Deimos
*n 0DtoCer 21 %aVria AerosQaDe and &leDnor %eimos annoVnDed a Koint QartnershiQ to CVild and oQerate a Donstellation of 8 satellites DaQaCle of freRVentlZ DaQtVrinH mVltisQeDtral imaHerZ of the same area sVQQlemented CZ onCoard aVtomated identimDation of HroVnd featVres The hiHhest resolVtion QossiCle is eYQeDted to Ce aCoVt 22 meters &aDh memCer of the Donstellation Dalled 1erseVs0 Xill Donsist of a 66 DVCesat arranHement 1erseVs0 satellites Xill Ce laVnDhed as seDondarZ QaZloads dVrinH 215 thoVHh no laVnDh WehiDle has Ceen seleDted Zet %aVria AerosQaDe has also CVilt 1erseVs.1 1erseVs.2 and %91 and these nonDommerDial remote sensinH satellites Xill Ce laVnDhed as seDondarZ QaZloads aCoard %neQr WehiDles in 214 &leDonor %eimos also oQerates the %eimos1 DVCesat DVrrentlZ on orCit and Xill oQerate the mVDh larHer %eimos2 LH XhiDh Xill Ce laVnDhed in 214 aCoard a %neQr as the QrimarZ QaZload
GeoOptics
(eo0QtiDs is an enWironmental and Xeather data serWiDes DomQanZ that Xill laVnDh small satellites into Qolar orCit DarZrZinH the data sensor teDhnoloHZ Dalled (143adio 0DDVltation 30 30 teDhnoloHZ measVres temQeratVre air QressVre and Xater WaQor Xith nearQerfeDt aDDVraDZand VnliLe anZ other data form in orCit todaZfor Vse in oQerational Xeather foreDastinH and sQaDe Xeather aQQliDations as Xell as Dlimate monitorinH 8ith this inorCit sensor infrastrVDtVre (eo0QtiDs Xill Ce DolleDtinH mass amoVnts of atmosQheriD and enWironmental data for Vse in DomQVtational models in /VmeriD 8eather 1rediDtion /81 foreDastinH and DlimatoloHiDal models These models Xill VltimatelZ feed data analZtiDs for Dlean teDh mnanDial insVranDe aHriCVsiness and defense and manZ other indVstries as Xell as sDienDe and researDh orHani[ations XorldXide
The DomQanZ Qlans to laVnDh satellites CeHinninH in 215 toXard a fVll oQerational Donstellation of 24 satellites oWer the neYt feX Zears -aVnDhes Xill Ce DondVDted throVHh a DomCination of aWailaCle seDondarZ laVnDh WehiDles #eDaVse the DomQanZ has not Zet seDVred enoVHh mnanDinH for the sQaDeCased seHment these laVnDhes are not inDlVded in the foreDast
ImageSat International NV
*sraelCased *maHe4at foVnded as 8est *ndian 4QaDe in 17 and ofmDiallZ a $VraDao DomQanZ QroWides DommerDial sVCmeter resolVtion imaHerZ Xith the &arth 3emote 0CserWation 4atellite &304 familZ of satellites -iLe manZ remote sensinH DomQanies *maHe4at’s maKor DVstomers are HoWernments *srael AerosQaDe *ndVstries -td *A* manVfaDtVres the &304 satellites and &-#*T &leDtro 0QtiDs *ndVstries deWeloQs the imaHinH sZstem
*maHe4at DVrrentlZ oQerates tXo satellites &304 A and &304 # &304 A laVnDhed in %eDemCer 2 aCoard a 3Vssian 4tart1 small laVnDh WehiDle and shoVld DontinVe to
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
oQerate Vntil at least 215 mWe Zears CeZond its QroKeDted serWiDe life &304 # laVnDhed aCoard a 4tart1 in 26 and shoVld DontinVe to oQerate Vntil 222
*A* is DVrrentlZ CVildinH the &304$ satellite ThoVHh no laVnDh Zear has Ceen seleDted it is eYQeDted that &304$ Xill Ce laVnDhed in 216 or217 aCoard a small WehiDle &304$ is desiHned to haWe a serWiDe life of aCoVt ten Zears
MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates
.%A oXns and oQerates 3A%A34AT2 The DomQanZ is a DommerDial QroWider of adWanDed HeosQatial information QrodVDts deriWed from the hiHhresolVtion 3A%A34AT1 no lonHer in serWiDe and 3A%A34AT2 satellites *t also marLets and sells data deriWed from DommerDial oQtiDal satellites and from aerial sZstems
3A%A34AT1 Xas laVnDhed on /oWemCer 4 15 aCoard a %elta ** laVnDh WehiDle The satellite XhiDh Xas oQerated CZ the $anadian 4QaDe AHenDZ $4A Xas retired in 21 3A%A34AT2 laVnDhed aCoard a 4tarsem 4oZV[ intermediate WehiDle on %eDemCer 14 27 and remains healthZ 3A%A34AT2 featVres a 4A3 sZstem DaQaCle of QrodVDinH imaHerZ Xith 1meter resolVtion
To QroWide sQaDeCased radar data DontinVitZ the (oWernment of $anada throVHh the $4A QroQosed the threesatellite 3A%A34AT $onstellation .ission 3$. *n .arDh 21 the $4A aVthori[ed .%A to Qerform the 1hase $ desiHn Qhase of the 3$A QroHram after .%A sVDDessfVllZ DomQletes 1hases A and # *n +anVarZ 21 $4A siHned a $A% 76million DontraDt Xith .%A for the DonstrVDtion laVnDh and initial oQerations of the three 3$. satellites .%A seDVred a laVnDh reserWation Xith 4QaDe &YQloration TeDhnoloHies 4QaDe9 in +VlZ 21 for the laVnDh of all three satellites aCoard a FalDon WehiDle
OmniEarth
64Cased 0mni&arth is QartnerinH Xith %raQer -aCoratorZ %ZnetiDs and Harris $orQoration to deWeloQ a Donstellation of 18 small remote sesninH satellites These satellites Xill QroWide mVltisQeDtral imaHerZ QrodVDts DoWerinH the entire Qlanet Xith a reWisit time of one daZ The satellites Xill Ce aCle to doXnlinL VQ to 12 HiHaCZtes Qer seDond of data and store 1 teraCZte of data onCoard a VniRVe DaQaCilitZ in DommerDial satellite remote sensinH 0mni&arth is DVrrentlZ seeLinH mnanDinH to fVnd deWeloQment of the Donstellation XhiDh is eYQeDted to Dost aCoVt 25 million 4inDe mnanDinH is not Zet mnali[ed and no laVnDh Qlans haWe Ceen annoVnDed the 18 satellites haWe not Ceen inDlVded in this Zear’s foreDast
PlanetIQ
1laneti2 estaClished in 212 Qlans to oQerate 18 miDrosatellites to QroWide Xeather Dlimate and sQaDe Xeather data The satellites are not eRViQQed Xith imaHinH sensors instead theZ Xill DolleDt atmosQheriD data inDlVdinH temQeratVre QressVre and Xater WaQor CZ measVrinH the CendinH of siHnals CroadDast from HloCal naWiHation satellite sZstems liLe the 64 /aWstar (loCal 1ositioninH 4Zstem VsinH 30
The mass of eaDh satellite is 75 LiloHrams The DVrrent Qlan is to laVnDh 12 satellites CZ
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217 Xith 18 total CZ 21 1laneti2 is DVrrentlZ raisinH fVnds to sVQQort initiation of the Donstellation CVild in sVmmer 214
Planet Labs, Inc.
1lanet -aCs *nD Cased in $alifornia is a remote sensinH and (*4 DomQanZ foDVsed on QrodVDinH and oQeratinH neet of 1 WerZ small satellites #eDaVse the satellite Qlatforms Donsist of three staDLed DVCesats 6 the sensor foDal lenHth is not DaQaCle of QrodVDinH imaHes Xith resolVtions hiHher than to 5 meters XhiDh is still adeRVate for enWironmental monitorinH DhanHe deteDtion and other aQQliDations The larHe nVmCer of WerZ small satellites ensVres HloCal DoWeraHe for a relatiWelZ small inWestment 1lanet -aCs raised 52 million in 21
1lanet -aCs Dalled $osmoHia from 21 to earlZ 21 CVilt foVr QrototZQe %oWe satellites laVnDhed as seDondarZ QaZloads in 21 *n +anVarZ 214 28 %oWe satellites DolleDtiWelZ Dalled FloDL1 Xere laVnDhed aCoard an Antares WehiDle QroWided CZ 0rCital 4DienDes $orQoration The satellites Xere stored Xithin the $ZHnVs DarHo transfer WehiDle that Certhed Xith the *nternational 4QaDe 4tation *44 on +anVarZ 12 0nDe attaDhed to the *44 the satellites Xere transferred to the +aQanese ,iCo modVle Xhere a sQeDial disQenser Xas Vsed to eKeDt the satellites one CZ one into orCit the folloXinH month 4hortlZ after deQloZment of FloDL1 1lanet -aCs annoVnDed that 72 additional satellites Xill Ce deQloZed CetXeen FeCrVarZ 214 and FeCrVarZ 215 CrinHinH the total nVmCer to 1 The DomQanZ indiDated Qlans to Vse 64 and 3Vssian WehiDles laVnDhed from different laVnDh sites in order to deQloZ satellites into different orCits thVs ensVrinH HloCal DoWeraHe
The foreDast inDlVdes 1 satellites deQloZed dVrinH 214215 folloXed CZ 25 satellites eaDh Zear throVHhoVt the foreDast Qeriod to reQlenish the Donstellation sinDe eaDh satellite has a serWiDe life of 2 to 4 Zears HoXeWer none of these satellites are eYQeDted to driWe a laVnDh sinDe it is liLelZ all satellites Xill Ce deQloZed as seDondarZ QaZloads
Skybox Imaging
4LZCoY *maHinH *nD Cased in .oVntain 7ieX $alifornia is a neX entrant to the DommerDial satellite remote sensinH indVstrZ The DomQanZ oCtained a /0AA liDense for 4LZ4at1 on AQril 2 21 and has aQQlied to amend the liDense to inDlVde a seDond satellite 4LZ4at2 A third satellite is also Qlanned Cefore the DomQanZ’s 12satellite Qolar orCitinH Donstellation CeHins deQloZinH in 215 4LZCoY manVfaDtVres and oQerates its oXn satellites and Xill QroWide freRVentlZ VQdated imaHerZ and Wideo online
4LZ4at1 laVnDhed in 21 aCoard a %neQr WehiDle alonH Xith seWeral other satellites 4LZ4at2 and 4LZ4at are QroKeDted to laVnDh as seDondarZ satellites aCoard a 4oZV[ 2 and a %neQr resQeDtiWelZ 4iY 4LZ4at satellites Xill folloX in 215 laVnDhed toHether aCoard an 0rCital 4DienDes $orQoration .inotaVr$ 4LZCoY has also Ceen in disDVssions Xith 7irHin (alaDtiD for the laVnDh of satellites aCoard -aVnDher0ne a neX smallDlass laVnDh WehiDle 4inDe this WehiDle Dan onlZ DarrZ one 4LZ4at at a time the foreDast QroKeDts that siY 4LZ4at satellites Xill Ce laVnDhed indiWidVallZ in 216 and 217 TXo notional satellites Qer Zear in 21 221 and 22 are antiDiQated to reQlenish the Donstellation sinDe eaDh satellite has a serWiDe life of 6 Zears
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
Commercial Cargo and Crew Transportation Services $ommerDial DarHo and DreX transQortation DaQaCilities inDlVde DommerDial laVnDhes of DarHo and hVmans to -&0 and eYternal traKeDtories to the .oon or other solar sZstem destinations 4QeDimDallZ DommerDial DarHo and DreX transQortation DaQtVres DommerDial DreX and DarHo serWiDes in sVQQort of /A4A’s mission and other QriWate indVstrZ efforts that maZ reRVire DarHo and DreX niHhts sVDh as sQaDe stations toVrism QriWatelZ sQonsored sDientimD eYQeditions and the QrosQeDtinH and mininH of nonterrestrial resoVrDes
Commercial Cargo and Crew Transportation Services Launch Demand Summary 4eWentZeiHht DommerDial DarHo and DreX laVnDhes are QroKeDted from 214 to 22 as DomQared to 74 laVnDhes in last Zear’s reQort All the laVnDhes foreDasted in the neYt ten Zears are in sVQQort of DommerDial DreX and DarHo resVQQlZ to the *44 The inDrease in niHhts QroKeDted from last Zear’s foreDast is dVe to seWeral faDtors AmonH them are laVnDh delaZs of 0rCital’s mrst Antares $34 niHht and 4QaDe9’s third $34 niHht from 21 into 214 and a sliHht inDrease in the QroKeDted nVmCer of test and oQerational niHhts Vnder /A4A’s DommerDial DreX QroHram FiHVre 18 QroWides a laVnDh historZ and QroKeDted laVnDh Qlans for DommerDial DarHo and DreX transQortation serWiDes
FiHVre 1 shoXs the distriCVtion of *44 DommerDial DarHo and DreX niHhts from 214 to 22 /ote that the mrst test niHhts of FalDon and Antares Xere not fVnded CZ /A4A and are DaQtVred in the foreDast seDtion entitled TeDhnoloHZ Test and %emonstration -aVnDhes
FiHVre 18 $ommerDial $arHo and $reX TransQortation 4erWiDes -aVnDh HistorZ and 1roKeDted -aVnDh 1lans Number of Launches
NASA COTS
*n 26 /A4A annoVnDed the $0T4 QroHram $0T4 foDVsed on the deWeloQment and demonstration of DommerDial DarHo transQortation sZstems Total 4QaDe ADt AHreement 4AA fVndinH Vnder this QroHram Xas 88 million 6nder $0T4 4QaDe9 deWeloQed
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$ommerDial 0rCital TransQortation 4erWiDe .ission $ommerDial 3esVQQlZ 4erWiDes FVtVre *44 DarHo resVQQlZ Antares test niHht in TeDhnoloHZ Test and %emo $ommerDial DreX test niHhts FVtVre *44 DreX transQort 4PVSDFT/"4"*44'MJHIU1MBO .BSDI BOE/"4"':#VEHFU&TUJNBUFT/"4".JTTJPO-BVODIFT ':
the intermediate FalDon laVnDh WehiDle and the %raHon sQaDeDraft 0rCital 4DienDes $orQoration deWeloQed the $ZHnVs sQaDeDraft and the mediVmDlass Antares laVnDh WehiDle 4QaDe9 DomQleted its $0T4 milestones in 212 0rCital’s test niHht of Antares laVnDhed on AQril 21 21 DarrZinH a $ZHnVs mass simVlator The DomQanZ DondVDted its $0T4 demonstration mission in 4eQtemCer 21 featVrinH a fVllZ oQerational $ZHnVs that Certhed Xith the *44 The sVDDessfVl DomQletion of this mission DonDlVded /A4A’s $0T4 QroHram
NASA CRS
*n 28 /A4A aXarded tXo $34 DontraDts to 4QaDe9 and 0rCital 4QaDe9 Xon a DontraDt WalVed at 16 Cillion for 12 niHhts throVHh 215 and 0rCital Xon a 1 Cillion DontraDt for 8 niHhts dVrinH the same Qeriod 0Qerational niHhts CeHan in 0DtoCer 212 Xith the sVDDessfVl laVnDh of 4QaDe9’s %raHon resVQQlZinH the *44 0rCital’s resVQQlZ missions CeHan in +anVarZ 214 4VCseRVentlZ aQQroYimatelZ siY DommerDial DarHo niHhts are eYQeDted eaDh Zear throVHh 22
NASA Commercial Crew
To stimVlate DommerDial deWeloQment of a DreX transQortation DaQaCilitZ /A4A initiated the $ommerDial $reX %eWeloQment $$%eW effort in 21 Xith 5 million of 2 AmeriDan 3eDoWerZ and 3einWestment ADt fVndinH $$%eW foDVsed on deWeloQment of DommerDial sQaDe transQortation DonDeQts and enaClinH DaQaCilities The 21 $$%eW aXardees Xere #lVe 0riHin #oeinH 1araHon 4QaDe %eWeloQment $orQoration 4ierra /eWada $orQoration and 6nited -aVnDh AllianDe 6-A
*n 211 after DomQletion of the initial $$%eW effort /A4A DontinVed inWestinH in DommerDial DreX transQortation deWeloQment Xith a seDond DomQetition LnoXn as $$%eW2 This folloXon effort fVrther adWanDed DommerDial DreX sQaDe transQortation sZstem DonDeQts matVrinH the desiHn and deWeloQment of sZstem elements sVDh as laVnDh WehiDles and sQaDeDraft #lVe 0riHin #oeinH 4ierra /eWada $orQoration and 4QaDe9 Xon aXards totalinH 15 million AdditionallZ /A4A aXarded VnfVnded
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
TaCle 1 /A4A $ommerDial $reX and $arHo AXards Year of Value of Space Program Space Act Companies Vehicles and Technologies Act Agreement Agreement $0T4 26 6 million 4QaDe9%raHon $0T4 26 27 million ,istler5 ,1 $0T4 28 288 million 0rCital $ZHnVs $34 28 16 Cillion 4QaDe9%raHon 12 niHhts $34 28 1 Cillion 0rCital $ZHnVs 8 niHhts 4ierra /eWada $$%eW 212 million %ream $haser $orQ $$%eW 2118 million #oeinH$4T1 6nited -aVnDh $$%eW 2167 million Atlas 7 hVman ratinH AllianDe 6-A $$%eW 21 7 million #lVe 0riHin -aVnDh aCort sZstems $$%eW 2114 million 1araHon 4QaDe -ife sVQQort $$%eW2211 112 million #oeinH$4T1 desiHn matVration 4ierra /eWada $$%eW2211 156 million %ream $haser desiHn matVration $orQ $$%eW2211 75 million 4QaDe9$reXed %raHon deWeloQment $$%eW2211 22 million #lVe 0riHin -aVnDh aCort sZstems $$%eW2211 6nfVnded 6-A Atlas 7 hVman ratinH $$%eW2211 6nfVnded AT,AstriVm -iCertZ deWeloQment $$%eW2211 6nfVnded &YDaliCVr Alma[4QaDeDraft deWeloQment $$i$A1 212 46 million #oeinH$4T1 DreXed matVration $$i$A1 212 44 million 4QaDe9$reXed %raHon matVration 4ierra /eWada $$i$A1 212 2125 million %ream $haser DreXed matVration $orQ $1$ 212 1 million #oeinH$reX $ertimDation 4ierra /eWada $1$ 212 1 million $reX $ertimDation $orQ $1$ 212 1 million 4QaDe9$reX $ertimDation 5*O /"4"UFSNJOBUFEUIF4QBDF"DU"HSFFNFOUXJUI,JTUMFSEVFUPUIFDPNQBOZTUFDIOJDBMBOEmOBODJBMTIPSUGBMMT aHreements to QroWide limited teDhniDal assistanDe for adWanDement of DommerDial DreX sQaDe transQortation to 6-A Alliant TeDhsZstems AT, and &YDaliCVr Alma[ *nD
*n 212 /A4A annoVnDed the neYt Qhase of DommerDial DreX deWeloQment $ommerDial $reX *nteHrated $aQaCilitZ $$i$A1 This neX initiatiWe is to faDilitate indVstrZ’s deWeloQment of an inteHrated DreX transQortation sZstem $$i$aQ is eYQeDted to resVlt in siHnimDant matVration of DommerDial DreX transQortation sZstems #oeinH 4QaDe9 and 4ierra /eWada $orQoration Xon aXards totalinH oWer 11 Cillion *n %eDemCer 212 /A4A aXarded million in $ertimDation 1rodVDts $ontraDts $1$ to #oeinH 4ierra /eWada and 4QaDe9 6nder this DontraDt eaDh of these DomQanies Xill XorL toXard DertifZinH its sQaDeDraft as safe to DarrZ hVmans to the *44 The neYt aXard of fVndinH CZ /A4A is Qlanned for mid214 4eWen orCital test niHhts are eYQeDted CetXeen 215 and 217 Cefore oQerational niHhts taLe QlaDe in late 217 The initial test missions Xill not Ce liDensed CeDaVse theZ Xill Ce Donsidered HoWernment niHhts
TaCle 1 desDriCes /A4A $0T4 $34 and $$%eW AXards
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Bigelow Aerospace /eWadaCased #iHeloX AerosQaDe is deWeloQinH eYQandaCle sQaDe haCitat teDhnoloHZ to sVQQort a WarietZ of QVCliD and QriWate aDtiWities inDlVdinH DommerDial sQaDe stations in -&0 and hVman sQaDeniHht missions CeZond -&0 *ts manVfaDtVrinH Qlant XhiDh oDDVQies 1 71 sRVare meters is loDated in /orth -as 7eHas /eWada #iHeloX AerosQaDe has laVnDhed tXo QrototZQe sQaDeDraft (enesis * and (enesis ** on seQarate 3Vssian %neQr laVnDh WehiDles in 26 and 27 resQeDtiWelZ #iHeloX AerosQaDe Vsed these missions to Walidate its haCitat desiHns and enHineerinH in an aDtVal onorCit enWironment
#iHeloX AerosQaDe is DVrrentlZ deWeloQinH the #iHeloX &YQandaCle ADtiWitZ .odVle #&A. a teDhnoloHZ Qathmnder sZstem for the *44 *n %eDemCer of 212 /A4A aXarded #iHeloX AerosQaDe a 178 million DontraDt to deWeloQ the #&A. XhiDh Xill laVnDh on the eiHhth 4QaDe9 $34 niHht in 215 The #&A. is sDhedVled for a nominal tXoZear teDhnoloHZ demonstration Qeriod Xherein *44 DreXmemCers Xill Hather data on the QerformanDe of the modVle The #&A. mission Qeriod maZ Ce eYtended CZ /A4A and at the end of its life the #&A. Xill Ce Kettisoned from the *44 and Xill CVrn VQ dVrinH reentrZ
#iHeloX AerosQaDe has also Ceen DontinVinH XorL on fVllsDale eYQandaCle modVles 4QeDimDallZ the DomQanZ is deWeloQinH the #A XhiDh Xill offer DVCiD meters of internal WolVme and Dan aDDommodate a DreX of VQ to siY and the #A 21 or A0lZmQVs’ XhiDh Xill QroWide roVHhlZ 2 1 DVCiD meters of internal WolVme *n 21 #iHeloX AerosQaDe annoVnDed that it DoVld modifZ the #A in a nVmCer of XaZs deQendinH on mission needs The #A %4 XoVld Ce desiHned for missions CeZond -&0 reRVirinH additional radiation shieldinH The #A .%4 XoVld Ce desiHned for sVrfaDe installations on the .oon FinallZ #iHeloX AerosQaDe is DonsiderinH a Wersion of the #A 21 that DoVld DarrZ sQaDeDraft as Xell as DreX VsinH a larHe airloDL to faDilitate transfers These modVles Dan Ce linLed toHether to form sQaDe stations and Dan also Ce linLed toHether Xith anZ of a WarietZ of tVHs that the DomQanZ intends to QroWide inDlVdinH a 4tandard Transit TVH a 4olar (enerator TVH a %oDLinH /ode TransQorter and a 4QaDeDraft $aQtVre TVH
#iHeloX AerosQaDe is also inWolWed in DreX transQortation The DomQanZ is a memCer of the #oeinH $$%eW team XorLinH on the $4T1 reVsaCle insQaDe DreX transQort WehiDle
#iHeloX AerosQaDe has also DomQleted a sVCstantial eYQansion to its north -as 7eHas manVfaDtVrinH Qlant The DomQanZ’s neX 18 572 sRVare foot addition noX inDreases the si[e of #iHeloX AerosQaDe faDilities to a total of 41 551 sRVare feet
$VrrentlZ Xith the eYDeQtion of the #&A. laVnDh aCoard the eiHhth $34 niHht no laVnDh DontraDts haWe Ceen QVCliDlZ annoVnDed 4VDh DontraDts Xill liLelZ not Ce annoVnDed Vntil the DomQanZ Dan seDVre WiaCle DreX transQortation sVDh as the #oeinH $4T1 or 4QaDe9 %raHon DaQsVles As a resVlt laVnDh demand assoDiated Xith #iHeloX AerosQaDe is not inDlVded in this seDtion
Planetary Resources
*n AQril 212 1lanetarZ 3esoVrDes *nD a DomQanZ formed CZ 4QaDe AdWentVres foVnder &riD Anderson and 9 13*;& $hairman 1eter %iamandis introdVDed its Qlans to mine near &arth asteroids for raX materials *n its initial efforts 1lanetarZ 3esoVrDes is foDVsinH on telesDoQes desiHned to identifZ resoVrDeriDh tarHets *t has entered into an aHreement Xith
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
7irHin (alaDtiD to laVnDh seWeral Donstellations of ArLZd1 4eries -&0 sQaDe telesDoQes on 7irHin (alaDtiD’s -aVnDher0ne -aVnDher0ne is still Vnder deWeloQment Xith DommerDial niHhts estimated to CeHin in 216 The DomQanZ’s A DVCesat and ArLZd1 telesDoQe Xill Ce laVnDhed as seDondarZ QaZloads dVrinH the foreDast Qeriod
Other Sources of Future Launch Demand
4eWeral other efforts haWe Ceen QVrsVed in reDent Zears that Xill reRVire DommerDial DreX and DarHo transQortation or maZ in the fVtVre 4ome of these *nsQiration .ars FoVndation and 4QaDe AdWentVres haWe enoVHh fVndinH to Qress forXard Xith mission QlanninH and eWen hardXare deWeloQment 0ther efforts liLe &YDaliCVr Alma[ and (olden 4QiLe haWe raised limited fVnds At this time no laVnDh DontraDts haWe Ceen annoVnDed so laVnDh demand assoDiated Xith these DomQanies is not inDlVded in the foreDast
Blue Origin
#lVe 0riHin is a 64Cased DomQanZ QVrsVinH deWeloQment of a DreXed sVCorCital transQortation sZstem Dalled /eX 4heQard and an orCital DreXed sZstem DonsistinH of a 3eVsaCle 0rCital 4QaDe 7ehiDle 47 laVnDhed aCoard a tXostaHe 0rCital -aVnDh 7ehiDle 0-7 The 47 Xill Ce desiHned to DarrZ seWen QeoQle The reVsaCle 0-7 mrst staHe Xill Ce QoXered CZ a DlVster of #& liRVid roDLet enHines *n 21 the DomQanZ sVDDessfVllZ tested the #& XhiDh CVrns liRVid hZdroHen and liRVid oYZHene and QrodVDes aCoVt 1 QoVnds of thrVst The DomQanZ has not Zet released a sDhedVle for test laVnDhes
Excalibur Almaz
&YDaliCVr Alma[ -imited &A- an *sle of .an DomQanZ Vses elements of a leHaDZ 4oWiet militarZ sQaDe QroHram LnoXn as Alma[ &A-’s LeZ Qartners are /10 .ashinostroZenia the oriHinal deWeloQer of Alma[ AirCVs (roVQ and +aQan .anned 4QaDe 4Zstems $orQoration The sZstem inDlVdes foVr threeQerson reVsaCle retVrn WehiDles 337 and tXo 4alZVttZQe Alma[ orCital sQaDe stations that Dan staZ onorCit aVtonomoVslZ for one XeeL or doDL Xith the *44 0ne of the 337s Xill Ce eRViQQed as an Vnmanned miDroHraWitZ laCoratorZ to assist Xith sDienDe niHhts to -&0 /A4A aXarded &A- an VnfVnded 4AA for DommerDial DreX transQortation as Qart of $$%eW2 aDtiWities and Xas the mrst DomQanZ to DomQlete all of its 4AA milestones *f in the fVtVre /A4A deDides to Vse the sZstem the Caseline WehiDle Xill Ce the Atlas 7 *n +Vne 212 the DomQanZ annoVnDed Qlans to ferrZ QassenHers to and from lVnar orCit Xith tiDLets DostinH aroVnd 155 million &A- intended to CeHin niHht tests of Alma[ CZ late 214 and to laVnDh its mrst reWenVeHeneratinH niHht as earlZ as the foVrth RVarter of 215 HoXeWer details reHardinH mnanDinH haWe not Ceen QroWided QVCliDlZ and no laVnDh DontraDts haWe Ceen annoVnDed
Golden Spike Company
The (olden 4QiLe $omQanZ formed to offer QriWate hVman eYQeditions to the sVrfaDe of the .oon CZ 21 or 22 The DomQanZ’s Qresident is former /A4A AssoDiate Administrator for 4DienDe Alan 4tern (olden 4QiLe estimates the Dost for a tXoQerson lVnar sVrfaDe mission Xill start at 14 Cillion for the mrst mission and 16 Cillion for inDreasinHlZ
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amCitioVs sVCseRVent missions (olden 4QiLe DontraDted Xith /orthroQ (rVmman for the desiHn of a neX lVnar lander DaQaCle of DarrZinH tXo DreXmemCers
Inspiration Mars Foundation
The *nsQiration .ars FoVndation oriHinallZ hoQed to moVnt a QriWatelZ fVnded DreXed .ars nZCZ mission oriHinallZ Qlanned for 218 #Z earlZ 214 this oCKeDtiWe sliQQed to 221 and noX inDlVdes /A4A’s 4QaDe -aVnDh 4Zstem 4-4 as Qart of its arDhiteDtVre The QroKeDt aims to taLe adWantaHe of a QlanetarZ aliHnment that Xill alloX a .ars nZCZ and retVrn in 51 daZs The foVndation Qlans to Vse a sinHle 4-4 laVnDh to send a %Val 6se 6QQer 4taHe %664 and a modimed $ZHnVs modVle into -&0 The 4-4 and %664 are DVrrentlZ CeinH deWeloQed CZ /A4A The $ZHnVs modVle is QroWided CZ 0rCital 4DienDes $orQoration as a DarHo transQort to *44 A seDond laVnDh VsinH a smaller WehiDle liLe an Atlas 7 or %elta *7 Xill send a DreX of tXo aCoard an /A4A’s 0rion sQaDeDraft *nsQiration .ars FoVndation $hairman %ennis Tito Xill fVnd mission deWeloQment for the mrst tXo Zears dVrinH XhiDh time additional fVndraisinH and sVQQort Xill Ce Harnered
Space Adventures
4QaDe AdWentVres a CroLer for sQaDe toVrism and eYQeditions indiDated in 211 that it Xas in the late QlanninH staHes for a threeQerson eYQedition to DirDVmnaWiHate the .oon TXo of the indiWidVals Xill QaZ for their seats Xhile a third Xill Ce a 3osDosmos DosmonaVt This effort Xill inDlVde tXo seQarate laVnDhes one of a 1roton. DarrZinH a #loDL%. lVnar transfer staHe and one of a 4oZV[ Xith tXo DreX memCers The tiDLet QriDe for eaDh of the seats is rVmored to Ce aCoVt 15 million The DomQanZ has indiDated that at least one tiDLet has Ceen sold and that the other is in mnal neHotiations
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
Other Commercially Launched Satellites
This seDtion Dontains QredominantlZ HoWernment satellites laVnDhed DommerDiallZ *t also inDlVdes VniWersitZ QaZloads that are sDientimD edVDation or oVtreaDh ThoVHh manZ HoWernment missions do not DommerDiallZ QroDVre or oCtain DommerDial liDenses for their laVnDhes there are seleDt missions that do QartiDVlarlZ CZ HoWernments XithoVt domestiD laVnDh DaQaCilities
*n QreWioVs reQorts 0ther $ommerDiallZ -aVnDhed 4atellites Xere disDVssed in the seDtions i4DienDe and &nHineerinH o #asiD and AQQlied 3esearDhw and i0ther 1aZloads -aVnDhed $ommerDiallZw For DlaritZ these seDtions Xere DomCined to QroWide a more DomQlete QiDtVre of the marLet of DommerDial laVnDhes QroDVred CZ HoWernments (oWernment &arth oCserWation and remote sensinH QroHrams and other sDientimD missions are siHnimDant DVstomers of DommerDial laVnDh serWiDes to /(40
Other Commercially Launched Satellites Demand Summary
The marLet DharaDteri[ation of the near term 214217 inDlVdes 1 manifested laVnDhes For the Qeriod 21822 the aQQliDation of a foreDastinH method QroKeDts 12 laVnDhes for an aWeraHe of 2 in eaDh of the 6 oVt Zears FiHVre 2 QroWides a laVnDh historZ and QroKeDted laVnDh Qlan demands for 0ther $ommerDiallZ -aVnDhed 4atellites
FiHVre 2 0ther $ommerDiallZ -aVnDhed 4atellites -aVnDh HistorZ and 1roKeDted -aVnDh 1lans Number of Launches
2014 2015 2016 2017 A4/A30 %neQr 4A0$0. 1A FalDon %raHon-aC 1 FalDon %raHon-aC FalDon 1A; %neQr Formosat 5 FalDon %VCai4at %neQr (ooHle 9 13*;& (ÚLtVrL 1 T#% &n.A1 14-7 -.2$ ,omQsat A %neQr 4A0$0. 1# FalDon %eimos %neQr
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ASNARO 1: A4/A30 is a remote sensinH satellite for the +aQanese .inistrZ of &DonomZ Trade and *ndVstrZ manVfaDtVred CZ the /&$ The satellite has a QroKeDted mass of 4 LiloHrams 882 QoVnds and Xill laVnDh on a %neQr in 214 DragonLab: %raHon-aC is the DonmHVration of the %raHon sQaDeDraft intended for DommerDial DVstomers that Xill oQerate indeQendentlZ of missions to the *44 %raHon-aC Xill fVnDtion as an orCital laCoratorZ that Dan host QressVri[ed and VnQressVri[ed eYQeriments The sQaDeDraft is eYQeDted to Ce reDoWeraCle and reVsaCle 4QaDe9 antiDiQates one %raHon-aC mission Qer Zear startinH in 216 DubaiSat-3: A folloXon to the %VCai4at2 laVnDhed last Zear from the &mirates *nstitVtion for AdWanDed 4DienDe and TeDhnoloHZ loDated in the 6A& it is sDhedVled to laVnDh as a QrimarZ QaZload in a mVltimanifested laVnDh aCoard %neQr WehiDles in 216 The satellite has a mass of aCoVt LiloHrams 661 QoVnds and Xill QroWide imQroWed resolVtion and faster doXnload sQeeds EnMAP: The (erman AerosQaDe $enter %-3 Qlans to laVnDh the &n.aQ sQaDeDraft in 216 on a 14-7 WehiDle The sQaDeDraft has a mass of 81 LiloHrams 1 786 QoVnds and Xill stVdZ a ranHe of eDoloHiDal Qarameters inDlVdinH aHriDVltVre forestrZ soil and HeoloHZ VsinH its hZQersQeDtral instrVments The mission is eYQeDted to last mWe Zears FORMOSAT-5: Formosat5 is a remote sensinH satellite for TaiXan’s /ational 4QaDe 0rHani[ation *t is eYQeDted to laVnDh in 215 on a FalDon WehiDle The satellite is CVilt CZ AirCVs 8ith a mass of 525 LiloHrams 1 157 QoVnds the satellite Xill Ce eRViQQed Xith an oQtiDal QaZload for remote sensinH and a nVmCer of sDienDe QaZloads The oQtiDal QaZload Xill QroWide QanDhromatiD imaHes Xith a 2meter 65foot resolVtion and mVltisQeDtral imaHes Xith a 4meter 1foot resolVtion Gökturk-1: (ÚLtVrL1 is an eleDtrooQtiDal earth oCserWation satellite for the TVrLish .inistrZ of %efense *talian mrm TelesQa[io is the manVfaDtVrer The satellite is QroKeDted to haWe a mass of VQ to 5 LiloHrams 11 QoVnds and is eYQeDted to laVnDh in 215 oriHinallZ Qlanned for 214 on a 7eHa laVnDh WehiDle KOMPSAT-3A: Also LnoXn as ,0.14AT’s iCrother satellite w ,0.14ATA Xill inDlVde the aCilitZ to oCtain imaHes in the infrared sQeDtrVm and QanDhromatiD imaHes alloXinH for temQeratVre DhanHe monitorinH 4oVth ,orea’s ,orean AerosQaDe 3esearDh *nstitVte ,A3* is deWeloQinH ,0.14ATA XhiDh Xill laVnDh in 215 delaZed from 214 on a %neQr WehiDle PAZ: 1A; is a radar satellite that Xill Ce oQerated CZ Hisdesat *t reQresents Qart of the 4Qanish /ational &arth 0CserWation 1roHram deWeloQed and manaHed KointlZ CZ the .inistrZ of %efense and the .inistrZ of *ndVstrZ Trade and ToVrism *maHerZ oCtained CZ this satellite XhiDh is Cased on the T491 CVs deWeloQed for *nfoterra’s Terra4A39 and Tan%&.9 Xill Ce Vsed for national seDVritZ and DommerDial QVrQoses 1A; is sDhedVled to laVnDh aCoard a %neQr WehiDle in 214 SAOCOM-1A, -1B: 4A0$0.1A is Qart of ArHentina’s 4A3 0CserWation $ommVniDation 4A0$0. satellite QroHram and Xill oQerate KointlZ Xith *talian satellites to QroWide information for emerHenDZ manaHement The satellite Xill DaQtVre hiHhresolVtion imaHes and Xhen Qaired Xith the solid state reDorder on Coard Xill Ce aCle to store imaHes and share them Wia its hiHhCitrate doXnlinL sZstem The seDond ArHentine satellite 4A0$0.1# Xill also DommVniDate Xith *talian satellites to QroWide
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
information for emerHenDZ manaHement The satellites Xill laVnDh seQaratelZ on FalDon WehiDles in 215 and 216 SARah: 4A3ah is a (erman Federal Armed ForDes satelliteCased radar reDonnaissanDe sZstem The three sZnthetiD aQertVre radar 4A3 satellites are a folloX on to (ermanZ’s 4A3-VQe sZstem XhiDh is sDhedVle to oQerate Vntil 217 TXo of the 4A3ah satellites are enhanDed reneDtor teDhnoloHZ that Xas deWeloQed for 4A3-VQe and Xill Ce CVilt CZ 0H# 4Zstems A( The third satellite Xill CVild CZ AstriVm (mCH VsinH Qhased arraZ teDhnoloHZ similar to Terra4A39 and Tan%&.9 These satellites are Qlanned for laVnDh on tXo FalDon missions in 217 and 218
Method for Forecasting Launch Demand
This foreDast reWised the model for QaZloads and laVnDhes related to CasiD and aQQlied sDientimD researDh that Xas aQQlied in the 212 /(40 reQort The methodoloHZ featVres a mWeZear aWeraHe that inDlVdes three Qrior Zears and tXo QroKeDted Zears for this reQort 21214 Xith eRVal XeiHht This simQle model is aQQlied to QaZloads as Xell as laVnDh WehiDles QertaininH to CasiD and aQQlied sDientimD researDh CeHinninH in 217 the mid and far oVtZears This maLes the oVtZears of the QroKeDtion more sensitiWe to emerHinH trends identimed in the nearterm throVHh researDh #eDaVse laVnDhes of other QaZloads from DoVntries XithoVt indiHenoVs laVnDh DaQaCilities are infreRVent the model does not aQQlZ a foreDastinH method to this seHment This does not mean the aDtVal demand is Hone CVt rather these tZQes of QaZloads are irreHVlar and efforts to foreDast their oDDVrrenDe in the oVtZears Dan lead to an oWerstatement of laVnDh demand
Technology Test and Demonstration Launches TeDhnoloHZ test and demonstration laVnDhes Xas QreWioVslZ Qart of 4DienDe and &nHineerinH seDtion TeDhnoloHZ test and demonstration laVnDhes are DondVDted to test QrimarilZ neX laVnDh WehiDles sVDh as Antares FalDon or FalDon HeaWZ #Z their natVre theZ are VnDommon and oneoff eWents 1laDinH teDhnoloHZ test and demonstration laVnDhes in a seQarate seDtion QroWides easZ identimDation of these oneoff eWents
FiHVre 21 QroWides a laVnDh historZ and QroKeDted laVnDh Qlans for teDhnoloHZ test and demonstration laVnDhes
The inaVHVral laVnDh of 4QaDe9’s FalDon HeaWZ laVnDh WehiDle is noX Qlanned for laVnDh in 215 The reQort also inDlVdes the teDhnoloHZ test and demonstration laVnDh of the 0rion .Vlti 1VrQose $reX 7ehiDle .1$7 Qlanned to laVnDh aCoard a %elta *7 HeaWZ in late 214
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FiHVre 21 TeDhnoloHZ Test and %emonstration -aVnDh HistorZ and 1roKeDted -aVnDh 1lans Number of Launches
2014 2015 2016 2017 0rion &FT1 Test FalDon HeaWZ %elta *7 HeaWZ
Microsatellites 1roHress in eleDtroniDs and other satellite DomQonent miniatVri[ation has enaCled sQaDeDraft XeiHhinH as little as 1 to 1 LiloHrams LnoXn as femto QiDo and nanosatellites TaCle 2 Qresents the ranHe of small satellite mass Dlasses
8hile QiDo and femtosatellites are rare miDro and nanosatellites and sQeDimDallZ a sVCset of nanosatellites Dalled DVCesats DonstitVte a sVCstantial share of QaZloads laVnDhed DommerDiallZ
$VCesats are a distinDtiWe HroVQ of small satellites in the nanosat mass Dlass $VCesats are miniatVri[ed satellites measVrinH 1Y1Y1 Dentimeters and XeiHhinH 1 LiloHram also LnoX as 1 Vnit 16 4atellite Vnits Dan Ce DomCined to Dreate doVCle or triQleVnit 26 or 6 DVCesats Xith measVrements of 1Y1Y2 Dentimeters 26 or 1Y1Y Dentimeters 6 resQeDtiWelZ TheZ Dan offer the standard fVnDtions of a normal satellite inDlVdinH deQloZment of solar Qanels antennas and Cooms #Z the end of 21 oWer 2 DVCesats haWe laVnDhed and more DVCesats are either readZ to laVnDh or in WarioVs Qhases of QlanninH deWeloQment and QrodVDtion or laVnDh QreQaration
The oriHinal DVCesat DonDeQt Xas introdVDed in 2 as a loXDost VniWersitZ edVDational satellite Qlatform and HradVallZ CeDame the standard for most VniWersitZ satellites 6niWersities are still the main orHani[ation CVildinH these sQaDeDraft As DVCesats CeDome more DaQaCle HoWernment and QriWate indVstrZ haWe CeDome more interested in laVnDhinH and oQeratinH them For eYamQle sQaDeDraft manVfaDtVrers CVild these satellites to sQaDe RValifZ eRViQment for fVtVre Vse on larHer satellites
#eDaVse of their si[e indiWidVal DVCesats often Qerform KVst one fVnDtion at a time HoXeWer Donstellations of DVCesats Dan QotentiallZ XorL toHether to QroWide Hreater fVnDtionalitZ A DVCesat Donstellation XoVld reRVire enoVHh DVCesats that if one or tXo
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
TaCle 2 4mall 4atellite .ass $lasses Class Name Kilograms (kg) Pounds (lb) Femto 1 1 2 2 1iDo 1 1 2 2 /ano 1 1 2 22 .iDro 1 2 22 441 .ini 2 6 441 1 2 4mall 6 1 2 1 2 2 646 failed it XoVld not Ce mission DritiDal #eside VniWersities HoWernment aHenDies haWe CeDome interested in deWeloQinH DVCesat Donstellations
$VCesats are VsVallZ laVnDhed as QiHHZCaDL QaZloads VsinH eYDess laVnDh DaQaDitZ on laVnDh WehiDles deQloZinH larHer QrimarZ QaZloads 4ome DVCesats are deQloZed in orCit VsVallZ from the *nternational 4QaDe 4tation *44 after CeinH deliWered to it as DarHo
*n 2 21 Coth nonDommerDial and DommerDial laVnDh WehiDles laVnDhed a total of 21 DVCesats XorldXide see TaCle 21 The maKoritZ of DVCesats Xere laVnDhed for nonQromt mostlZ VniWersitZ missions see FiHVre 22
At Qresent DVCesats CZ themselWes do not Qresent laVnDh demand *n the DommerDial sQaDe laVnDh indVstrZ laVnDh QroWiders are interested in DreatinH sQaDe for smaller seDondarZ QaZloads to driWe the laVnDh QriDe doXn or inDrease Qromts There haWe Ceen an inDreasinH nVmCer of DVCesats laVnDhed oWer the Qast deDade Xith a reDord nVmCer laVnDhed in 21 .ore of them are eYQeDted to laVnDh in the fVtVre hoXeWer this inDrease is not eYQeDted to affeDt laVnDh demand in the short term The marLet sitVation maZ DhanHe Xhen DommerDial sVCorCital reVsaCle WehiDles and small orCital laVnDh WehiDles DommerDial and nonDommerDial introdVDe neX nanosat laVnDh oQQortVnities inDlVdinH those for DVCesats
HistoriDallZ a WarietZ of laVnDh WehiDles haWe laVnDhed DVCesats see FiHVre 2 0Wer the Qast deDade the 3Vssian %neQr laVnDh WehiDle has laVnDhed the larHest nVmCer 0ther WehiDles sVDh as Atlas 7 64 FalDon 64 .inotaVr 64 14-7 *ndia and 7eHa &VroQe WehiDles haWe Ceen laVnDhinH more DVCesats latelZ
*n 21 a reDord nVmCer of 2 DVCesat Dlass satellites Xere laVnDhed inDlVdinH 5 DVCesats on 2 laVnDh WehiDles laVnDhed aCoVt onlZ hoVrs aQart Those missions Xere a 64 Air ForDe mission on .inotaVr * and a 3Vssian %neQr mission Coth laVnDhed in /oWemCer
64 DomQanZ /ano3aDLs also QroWides DaQaCilitZ for orCitinH DVCesats from the *nternational 4QaDe 4tation *44 1rior to sVDh insertion the DVCesats are deliWered to *44 TaCle 21 $VCesats -aVnDhed from onCoard orCital DarHo WehiDles sVDh as the HT7 2 to 21 and $ZHnVs Type of Launch Cubesats *n the 6nited 4tates the /A4A &dVDational $ommerDial 86 -aVnDh of /anosatellites &-a/a QroHram /on$ommerDial 115 Qromotes satellite CVildinH for sQaDe enHineerinH Total Cubesats 201 and sDienDe edVDation QVrQoses CZ QroWidinH Launched VniWersities and other orHani[ations deWeloQinH
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FiHVre 22 .iDrosatellites and /anosatellites -aVnDhed in 221 Commercial 9 (4%)
Civil 39 (19%)
University/NRQ3URÀW 201 125 (62%) Cubesats Military 28 (14%)
small satellites Xith free laVnDhes aCoard WehiDles DarrZinH larHer QrimarZ missions for /A4A or other 64 (oWernment aHenDies These inDlVde nonDommerDial laVnDhes CZ WehiDles liLe the Atlas 7 or DommerDial laVnDhes to the *44 CZ a FalDon or Antares
*n the DommerDial laVnDh seDtor 7irHin (alaDtiD annoVnDed -aVnDher0ne in 212 to laVnDh satellites XeiHhinH VQ to 1 LiloHrams to -&0 DommerDial niHhts QroKeDted to CeHin in 216 4VQer 4trZQi also LnoXn as 41A3, is another laVnDh WehiDle sDhedVled to maLe its mrst niHht in 214 *t is desiHned to laVnDh QaZloads in the ranHe of LH to -&0
FiHVre 2 .iDrosatellites and /anosatellites -aVnDhed CZ 7ehiDle 221
Vega Soyuz 4 (4%) 2 (3%) Rockot 3 (3%) Atlas V Delta II 11 (12%) 3 (3%)
PSLV Taurus 10 (11%) 1 (2%) M-V 1 (2%) 201 Dnepr Cubesats 25 (25%)
Minotaur 17 (18%)
H-II Falcon 9 6 (7%) 7 (7%) Long March Falcon 1 2 (3%) 1 (1%)
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
At Qresent DVCesats are QredominantlZ Vsed for teDhnoloHZ demonstration Coth in sQaDeDraft teDhnoloHZ and satellite aQQliDations sVDh as DommVniDations and remote sensinH As the teDhnoloHZ matVres more DVCesats are CVilt for sDientimD DommVniDations and remote sensinH QVrQoses inDlVdinH emerHinH DommerDial aQQliDations ThVs 64 DommerDial remote sensinH DomQanZ 1lanet -aCs laVnDhed a iFloDLw of 75 6 DVCesats from the *44 deliWered CZ the $ZHnVs $341 mission in earlZ 214 and is QlanninH to laVnDh 25 more DVCesats eaDh Zear dVrinH the foreDast Qeriod Another &arth remote sensinH DommerDial WentVre Xill Vse 66 DVCesats in an 8satellite 1erseVs0 Donstellation Qlanned CZ %aVria AerosQaDe and &leDnor %eimos 1lanetarZ 3esoVrDes *nD also Qlans to laVnDh DVCesatsi[ed satellites DarrZinH telesDoQes desiHned to identifZ resoVrDeriDh tarHets amonH near&arth asteroids
TaCle 22 QroWides sVmmarZ information on laVnDh WehiDles eYQeDted to Ce introdVDed dVrinH the neYt mWe Zears that are sQeDimDallZ desiHned to laVnDh miDrosatellites The maKoritZ of these %A31A’s AirCorne -aVnDh Assist 4QaDe ADDess A-A4A (eneration 0rCit’s (0-aVnDher2 7irHin (alaDtiD’s -aVnDher0ne and 4’s 4VC 0rCital AirDraft 3eVsaCle 40A3 Xill Ce airlaVnDhed CZ a Darrier airDraft -ZnY *** Vses roDLet QoXer to taLe off from a DonWentional rVnXaZ reaDh sVCorCital sQaDe release a small laVnDh WehiDle Xith a nanosatellite then retVrn to land liLe a DonWentional airQlane 4VQer 4trZQi is a rail laVnDhed WehiDle
TaCle 22 4eleDted 4mall -aVnDh 7ehiDles &YQeDted to Ce *ntrodVDed %VrinH the /eYt 5 :ears
Super ALASA GOLauncher-2 LauncherOne Lynx III SOAR Strypi (eneration Operator %A31A 7irHin (alaDtiD 9$03 AerosQaDe 4Xiss 4QaDe 4Zstems %o% 0rCit AeroKet %A31A (eneration 7irHin %assaVlt %eimos Manufacturer 9$03 AerosQaDe 3oDLetdZne #oeinH 0rCit (alaDtiD 44T- 4onaDa .eHHitt 4andia -aCs LEO Capacity 45 45 1 15 25 275 (kg) Planned First 215 216 216 T#% 217 214 Flight Method of Air Air Air 4VCorCital Air4VCorCital (roVnd 3ail Launch
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Satellite and Launch Forecast Trends The demand for DommerDial (&0 laVnDhes for the neYt 1 Zears is eYQeDted to staZ relatiWelZ steadZ at 15 to 17 laVnDhes Qer Zear The demand for DommerDial /(40 laVnDhes is eYQeDted to inDrease relatiWelZ siHnimDantlZ as maKor /(40 teleDommVniDation Donstellations are reQlenished and /A4A *44 DommerDial DreX and DarHo resVQQlZ missions CeDome more reHVlar The annVal aWeraHe of /(40 DommerDial laVnDhes is eYQeDted to HroX from an annVal aWeraHe of 6 laVnDhes a Zear to almost 14 laVnDhes annVallZ
From 214 to 22 558 QaZloads are QroKeDted to laVnDh DommerDiallZ driWinH 18 laVnDhes Xith mVltimanifestinH Ten more laVnDhes oWer the neYt deDade are QroKeDted DomQared to last Zear’s foreDast of 128 laVnDhes This inDrease is driWen QrimarilZ CZ additional niHhts for DommerDial DreX and DarHo and DommerDial remote sensinH FiHVres 24 and 25 shoX the QaZloads and laVnDhes QroKeDted from 21 to 222 TaCle 2 QroWides the sQeDimD nVmCers of QaZloads and laVnDhes for eaDh seHment
FiftZeiHht QerDent of the QrediDted laVnDhes oWer the neYt 1 Zears are for DommerDial transQortation serWiDes As noted earlier manZ of these laVnDhes taLe QlaDe on neXlZ deWeloQed WehiDles These missions also QartlZ relZ on HoWernment fVndinH sVCKeDt to annVal aQQroQriations
0ther $ommerDiallZ -aVnDhed 4atellites aDDoVnt for 18 QerDent of laVnDhes oWer the neYt 1 Zears These inDlVde a steadZ stream of CasiD and aQQlied researDh and nonDommerDial remote sensinH QaZloads QrimarilZ from DoVntries XithoVt indiHenoVs laVnDh DaQaCilities
The DommerDial remote sensinH aDDoVnts for 14 QerDent of the laVnDhes and all the demand for small WehiDles 1roKeDted demand is DonsideraClZ hiHher in this Zear’s reQort dVe the inDlVsion of neX DommerDial remote sensinH DomQanies liLe 4LZCoY *maHinH
/ine QerDent of the laVnDhes are for DommerDial teleDommVniDations FiWe laVnDhes are Qlanned in 214 and 215 for 03#$0.. (loCalstar and 0C satellites There is another
FiHVre 24 1aZload 1roKeDtions
$ommerDial TeleDommVniDations $ommerDial 3emote 4ensinH $ommerDial $arHo and $reX TransQortation 4erWiDes 0ther $ommerDiallZ -aVnDhed 4atellites TeDhnoloHZ Test and %emonstration Number of Launches
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
FiHVre 25 -aVnDh 1roKeDtions
$ommerDial TeleDommVniDations $ommerDial 3emote 4ensinH $ommerDial $arHo and $reX TransQortation 4erWiDes 0ther $ommerDiallZ -aVnDhed 4atellites TeDhnoloHZ Test and %emonstration Number of Launches
TaCle 2 1aZload and -aVnDh 1roKeDtions
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Avg. Payloads $ommerDial 18 26 104 10.4 TeleDommVniDations $ommerDial 3emote 78 42 242725272527335 33.5 4ensinH $ommerDial $arHo and $reX 6888888880 8 TransQortation 4erWiDes 0ther $ommerDiallZ 54144444437 3.7 -aVnDhed 4atellites TeDhnoloHZ Test and 112.2 %emonstration Total Satellites 106 74 72 69 46 39 37 39 37 39 558 55.8 Launches .ediVmtoHeaWZ 1 18 16 14 1 1 1 1 1 1 124 12.4 7ehiDles 4mall 7ehiDles 142 2 2 14 1.4 Total Launches1319201713121012101213813.8
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QeaL of teleDommVniDations laVnDhes from 215 to 217 as *ridiVm reQlaDes its satellites /o teleDommVniDations laVnDhes are foreDasted from 218 to 222 after the reQlaDement Donstellations are DomQleted
The teDhnoloHZ test and demonstration seHment aDDoVnts for less than 2 QerDent of laVnDhes oWer the neYt 1 Zears inDlVdinH 2 laVnDhes of neX teDhnoloHZ test and demonstration missions 4QaDe9’s FalDon HeaWZ and /A4A’s VnDreXed test of the 0rion .1$7 on a %elta *7 HeaWZ
1aZload mass Waries siHnimDantlZ in the DommerDial /(40 marLet *nDreasinH nVmCers of miDro and nanosatellites are laVnDhed as seDondarZ or QiHHZCaDL QaZloads and manZ DoVntries DommerDiallZ laVnDh mini small and mediVm si[ed satellites to -&0 for sDientimD researDh or remote sensinH The nVmCer of DVCesats laVnDhed in 21 almost doVCle from the QreWioVs Zear /(40 DommerDial teleDommVniDations satellites are larHe Donstellations of satellites Xith si[es ranHinH from nano AQri[e4tar to miDro 03#$0.. to small (loCalstar *ridiVm 0C none oWer 8 LiloHrams *n Dontrast the aWeraHe mass of a (40 teleDommVniDations satellite is aQQroYimatelZ 5 LiloHrams Xith manZ (40 satellites siHnimDantlZ heaWier than that $reX and DarHo sQaDeDraft to the *44 and #iHeloX sQaDe stations Xill liLelZ inDlVde larHe heaWZ or eYtra heaWZ QaZloads TaCle 24 shoXs the mass distriCVtions of LnoXn manifested QaZloads oWer the neYt tXo Zears TaCle 24 %istriCVtion of 1aZload .asses in /earTerm .anifest Percent of Mass Class Mass Class Weight 2014 2015 Total Total Femto, Pico, Nano, 12 LH 41 6 14 17% Micro 2441 lCs 26 LH Mini 1 22 27% 4411 2 lCs 61 2 LH Small 1 18 28 35% 1 22 646 lCs Medium, 1 24 2 LH 67% Intermediate 2 646 25 lCs 4 25 4 LH Large 00% 2511 5 lCs 5 4 LH Heavy, Extra Heavy 4711 16% 11 5 lCs Total 34 47 81 100%
There are 18 laVnDhes QroKeDted DomQrisinH 14 small WehiDles and 124 mediVmto heaWZ WehiDles 0n aWeraHe 14 laVnDhes taLe QlaDe on small WehiDles and 124 laVnDhes on mediVmtoheaWZ WehiDles eWerZ Zear The 212 reQort inDlVded 1 total laVnDhes DomQosed of small and 127 mediVmtoheaWZ laVnDhes
-aVnDh demand diWided amonH laVnDh WehiDle mass Dlasses is deQiDted in FiHVre 26 The nVmCer of mediVmtoheaWZ laVnDhes inDreased sliHhtlZ DomQared to last Zear’s foreDast dVe to the addition of DommerDial DreX test niHhts in the midterm The relatiWelZ hiHh Dost of a dediDated laVnDh on a small laVnDh WehiDle DomQared to a seDondarZ or QiHHZCaDL QaZload on a larHer WehiDle has LeQt the demand for small laVnDh WehiDles loX This dZnamiD is CeHinninH to DhanHe as neX small WehiDle sZstems liLe 7irHin (alaDtiD’s -aVnDher0ne CeDome aWailaCle This Zear’s reQort inDlVdes 11 more laVnDhes of small WehiDles all that demand DominH from DommerDial remote sensinH FaDtors smaller QaZloads DontinVinH to Vse larHer laVnDh WehiDles are more mVltiQlemanifest laVnDh serWiDes DarrZinH QrimarZ missions on Coth DommerDial and nonDommerDial Casis haWe CeDome readilZ aWailaCle
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
FiHVre 26 -aVnDh 7ehiDle 1roKeDtions
.ediVm to HeaWZ 2 268 LH -&0 4mall 2 268 LH -&0 Number of Launches
in the reDent Zears manZ small QaZload oQerators are tied to HoWernment fVndinH or national laVnDh DaQaCilities eH small &VroQean missions laVnDhed CZ 7eHa or 64 VniWersitZ missions HettinH free rides throVHh QroHrams liLe /A4A’s &-a/a *ntermediarZ DomQanies sVDh as 4QaDeFliHht 4erWiDes $ommerDial 4QaDe TeDhnoloHies -td and some others offerinH CroLeraHe serWiDes and QoolinH toHether DlVsters of seDondarZ QaZloads to Ce laVnDhed toHether on a sinHle laVnDh WehiDle haWe made the CVsiness of CooLinH niHhts for seDondarZ QaZloads more orHani[ed and QrediDtaCle
TaCle 25 on the neYt QaHe QroWides the distriCVtion of laVnDhes amonH the marLet seHments
TaCle 25 %istriCVtion of -aVnDhes amonH .arLet 4eHments
Launch Demand Market Segment Payloads Medium-to- Small Total Heavy $ommerDial TeleDommVniDations 14 1 1 $ommerDial 3emote 4ensinH5146 2 $ommerDial $arHo and $reX 878 78 TransQortation 4erWiDes 0ther $ommerDiallZ -aVnDhed 7 25 25 4atellites TeDhnoloHZ Test and 2 22 %emonstration Total 558 14 124 138
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LAUNCH VEHICLES TYPICALLY USED FOR NGSO MISSIONS
%VrinH the foreDast Qeriod seWeral DhanHes Xill oDDVr in the aWailaCilitZ of laVnDh WehiDles for DVstomers seeLinH to laVnDh to /(40 on DommerDiallZ QroDVred WehiDles *n the 64 4QaDe9 CeHan to laVnDh reWenVeHeneratinH niHhts of the FalDon in 212 and 0rCital’s Antares WehiDle CeHin reWenVeHeneratinH niHhts in 214 *n 215 0rCital Xill laVnDh the .inotaVr $ essentiallZ a modimed TaVrVs Xith 4LZCoY *maHinH satellites The 4VQer 4trZQi a rail laVnDhed WehiDle maZ laVnDh for the mrst time in 214 7irHin (alaDtiD intends to CeHin DommerDial laVnDhes of its neX -aVnDher0ne WehiDle in 216 and has CooLed three 4LZCoY *maHinH niHhts that Zear (eneration 0rCit and 9$03 are also eYQeDted to QroWide small laVnDh serWiDes in the nearterm 4tratolaVnDh 4Zstems XhiDh is deWeloQinH a WehiDle that Xill Ce laVnDhed from a hVHe Darrier airDraft Dalled 4tratolaVnDher Xill introdVDe its WehiDle sZstem in 218 This WehiDle Xill haWe a DaQaDitZ of aCoVt 6 LH to -&0
*n &VroQe ArianesQaDe’s small WehiDle 7eHa is noX aWailaCle for DommerDial laVnDhes and the DomQanZ Xill Ce introdVDinH a reQlaDement to Ariane 5 later in the foreDast Qeriod 4Xiss 4QaDe 4Zstems is also eYQeDted to introdVDe its 40A3 shVttle in 217 XhiDh Xill DarrZ small QaZloads to -&0 $hina maZ introdVDe a small WehiDle Dalled the -onH .arDh 6 XhiDh maZ Ce offered DommerDiallZ CZ 217 The larHer -onH .arDh5 7 and 11 are also eYQeDted to Ce introdVDed dVrinH the foreDast Qeriod *n 21 +aQan laVnDhed its &Qsilon small laVnDh WehiDle in 21 and 4oVth ,orea laVnDhed the small /aro1 WehiDle 3Vssia Qlans the mrst laVnDh of its lonHaXaited AnHara series in 214
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
RISK FACTORS THAT AFFECT SATELLITE AND LAUNCH DEMAND
The demand QroKeDtion is the nVmCer of satellites that oQerators eYQeDt to laVnDh in a HiWen Zear This demand is tZQiDallZ larHer than the nVmCer of satellites aDtVallZ laVnDhed FaDtors that DontriCVte to the differenDe CetXeen foreDasted and reali[ed laVnDhes inDlVde mnanDial QolitiDal and teDhniDal VnDertaintZ
Financial Uncertainty U.S. national and global economy: 4tronH oWerall eDonomiD Donditions historiDallZ foster HroXth and eYQansion in satellite marLets 4imilarlZ relatiWelZ XeaL DVrrenDZ eYDhanHe rates in one nation HenerallZ Dreate faWoraCle DirDVmstanDes for eYQorters and CVZers in a HiWen marLetQlaDe (loCal satellite manVfaDtVrers and QVrDhasers haWe shoXn stronH interest in taLinH adWantaHe of the hiHhlZ attraDtiWe WalVes offered CZ the historiDallZ loX 64 dollar eYDhanHe rates HoXeWer as the dollar rises in WalVe this trend Xill reWerse ,QYHVWRUFRQÀGHQFH After inWestors sVffered larHe losses from the CanLrVQtDies of hiHhQromle /(40 sZstems in the earlZ 2s DonmdenDe in fVtVre and folloXon /(40 teleDommVniDations sZstems haWe aCated Business case changes: The satellite oXner or oQerator Dan eYQerienDe CVdHet shortfalls DhanHe strateHies or reRVest teDhnoloHZ VQHrades late in the manVfaDtVrinH staHe all of XhiDh Dan DontriCVte to sDhedVle delaZ An infVsion of Dash from neX inWestors Dan reWiWe a stalled sZstem or aDDelerate sDhedVles Corporate mergers: The merHinH of tXo or more DomQanies maZ maLe it less liLelZ for eaDh to DontinVe QreWioVs Qlans and Dan redVDe the nVmCer of DomQetinH satellites that laVnDh $onWerselZ merHers Dan haWe a QositiWe imQaDt CZ QoolinH the resoVrDes of tXo XeaLer mrms to enaCle laVnDhes that XoVld not haWe oDDVrred otherXise Terrestrial competition: 4atellite serWiDes Dan DomQlement or DomQete Xith HroVndCased teDhnoloHZ sVDh as DellVlar teleQhones or DommVniDations deliWered throVHh mCer oQtiD or DaCle teleWision lines Aerial remote sensinH also DomQetes Xith satellite imaHerZ %eWeloQers of neX sQaDe sZstems haWe to Qlan ahead eYtensiWelZ for desiHn DonstrVDtion and testinH of sQaDe teDhnoloHies Xhile deWeloQers of terrestrial teDhnoloHies Dan reaDt and CVild to marLet trends more RViDLlZ and miHht DonWinDe inWestors of a faster retVrn on inWestment
Political Uncertainty Increase in government purchases of commercial services: For a WarietZ of reasons HoWernment entities haWe Ceen QVrDhasinH more sQaDerelated serWiDes from DommerDial DomQanies For eYamQle the %o% DontinVes to QVrDhase siHnimDant remote sensinH data from DommerDial QroWiders Regulatory and political changes: &YQort DomQlianDe F$$ liDensinH /0AA liDensinH or international liDensinH reRVirements Dan delaZ QroHress on a satellite QroHram 64 (oWernment QoliDZ reHardinH satellite and laVnDh WehiDle eYQort Dontrol has hindered 64 satellite manVfaDtVrers and laVnDh WehiDle oQerators XorLinH Xith international DVstomers This DaVses delaZs as Xell as DanDellations of satellite QroHrams $hanHes in F$$ or /0AA QroDesses eYQort Dontrol issVes assoDiated Xith sQaDe teDhnoloHZ and QolitiDal relations CetXeen DoVntries Dan all affeDt demand
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Increase in government missions open to launch services competition: 4ome HoWernments LeeQ laVnDh serWiDes DontraDts Xithin their Corders to sVQQort domestiD laVnDh indVstries HoXeWer &4A has held international laVnDh DomQetitions for some of its small sDienDe missions and some remote sensinH satellite laVnDhes haWe Ceen DomQeted 8hile estaClished sQaDefarinH nations are relVDtant to oQen VQ to international DomQetition the nVmCer of nations Xith neX satellite QroHrams CVt XithoVt sQaDe laVnDh aDDess sloXlZ inDreases
Technical Uncertainty Satellite lifespan: .anZ satellites oVtlast their Qlanned desiHn life The desiHnated laVnDh Zears in this reQort for reQlaDement satellites are often estimates for Xhen a neX satellite Xill Ce needed -ifesQan estimates are DritiDal for timinH the reQlaDements of eYistinH /(40 satellite sZstems HiWen the hiHh DaQital inWestment reRVired to deQloZ a reQlaDement sZstem Need for replacement satellites: AlthoVHh a satellite miHht haWe a lonH lifesQan it Dan Ce reQlaDed earlZ if it is no lonHer DosteffeDtiWe to maintain or an oQQortVnitZ miHht arise that alloXs a satellite oXner or oQerator to eYDeed the DomQetition Xith a teDhnoloHiDal adWanDement HiHher resolVtion DommerDial remote sensinH satellites are an eYamQle of this faDtor Launch vehicle technical issues: -aVnDh WehiDle manVfaDtVrers and oQerators maZ haWe manVfaDtVrinH sVQQlier or DomQonent issVes or eYQerienDe laVnDh anomalies or failVres AnZ of these issVes Dan delaZ the aWailaCilitZ of a laVnDh WehiDle or DaVse a delaZ at the laVnDh Qad -aVnDh delaZs Dan haWe a DasDadinH effeDt on sVCseRVent laVnDhes 4ome missions haWe sQeDimD laVnDh XindoXs for eYamQle sDienDe XindoXs and missinH that XindoX maZ resVlt in lenHthZ delaZs Satellite technical issues: 4atellite manVfaDtVrers maZ haWe faDtorZ sVQQlier or DomQonent issVes that delaZ the deliWerZ of a satellite The liLelihood of delaZs dVe to teDhniDal issVes rises as satellite sZstems CeDome more DomQleY Anomalies Xhether on the HroVnd or on orCit Dan affeDt the deliWerZ of satellites Vntil Qotential neet issVes for eYamQle DommonalitZ Xith Qarts on a satellite aXaitinH laVnDh are resolWed %elaZs in deliWerZ of sQaDeDraft to the laVnDh site Dan imQaDt the sDhedVlinH of laVnDhes Multi-manifesting: .VltimanifestinH Xhile limited to a feX laVnDh WehiDles is deQendent on seWeral satellites CeinH deliWered on time 1aZload DomQatiCilitZ issVes maZ also DaVse manifestinH DhallenHes Weather: *nDlement Xeather inDlVdinH HroVnd Xinds niHht Xinds DloVd DoWer liHhtninH and oDean DVrrents Dan DaVse laVnDh delaZs thoVHh these tZQiDallZ are short term on the order of daZs Failure of orbiting satellites: From the laVnDh serWiDes QersQeDtiWe failVre of orCitinH satellites Dan reRVire laVnDhinH HroVnd sQares or orderinH neX satellites This onlZ amoVnts to a small effeDt on the marLet hoXeWer A total sZstem failVre has not haQQened to anZ /(40 Donstellation Orbital debris and collision avoidance: ThoVHh relatiWelZ rare laVnDh delaZs Dan also oDDVr Xhen DonKVnDtion analZsis determines that orCital deCris has a hiHh QroCaCilitZ of introdVDinH risL to the mission
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast
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APPENDIX 1: HISTORICAL GSO SATELLITES AND LAUNCHES
HistoriDal data for addressaCle DommerDial satellites laVnDhed from 14 throVHh 21 is shoXn in TaCle 26 HistoriDal data for VnaddressaCle satellites laVnDhed from 1 to 212 is shoXn in TaCle 27
TaCle 26 HistoriDal AddressaCle $ommerDial (4O 4atellites -aVnDhed 1421
1994 1995 1996 Total -aVnDhes 14 17 21 Total 4atellites 18 18 25 0Wer 5 4 LH 11 5 lCm 4 2 5 4 LH 26 11 5 lCm 14 14 Astra 1% Ariane 4 Astra 1& Ariane 4 %. AraCsat 2A Ariane 4 *ntelsat 72 Ariane 4 %#4 Ariane 4 %.4 AraCsat 2# Ariane 4 %.2 1A4 2 Ariane 4 *ntelsat 76 Ariane 4 &Dho4tar 2 Ariane 4 1A4 Ariane 4 /4TA3 a Ariane 4 *ntelsat 77 Ariane 4 %.4 4olidaridad 2 Ariane 4 1A4 4 Ariane 4 *ntelsat 7 Ariane 4 Telstar 42 Ariane 4 Telstar 423 Ariane 4 .4AT 1 Ariane 4 2 5 4 2 LH %#4 2 Atlas ** A.4$ 1 Atlas ** /4TA3 C Ariane 4 5 51 26 lCm *ntelsat 7 Atlas ** (alaYZ 3 Atlas ** %.2 1alaQa $2 Ariane 4 0QtVs # -.2&*ntelsat 74 Atlas ** %.1 1A4 3 Ariane 4 *ntelsat 75 Atlas ** A.$ 1 Atlas ** +$4at Atlas ** Hot #ird 2 Atlas ** A14tar 2 -.2&1alaQa $1 Atlas ** Asiasat 2 -.2&*ntelsat 78 -.# &Dho4tar 1 -.2& Astra 1F 1roton ,%. 411 %. #ra[ilsat #1 Ariane 4 %.1 #ra[ilsat #2 Ariane 44 %.2 Amos 1 Ariane 4 %.2 #4/ Ariane 4 %.1 Hot #ird 1 Ariane 44 %.6 *talsat 2 Ariane 4 %.1 &Vtelsat ** F5 Ariane 4 %.6 *nsat 2$ Ariane 44 %.1 .easat 1 Ariane 4 %.4 ThaiDom 2 Ariane 4 ,oreasat %elta *%.4 .easat 2 Ariane 4 #eloX 2 5 LH %.1TVrL4at 1A Ariane 4 %. TVrL4at 1$ Ariane 4 5 51 lCm %. TVrL4at 1# Ariane 4 *nmarsat F1 Atlas ** Orion 1 Atlas ** *nmarsat F Atlas ** (alaYZ 13%elta ** (alaYZ %elta ** A14tar 1 -. ,oreasat 2 %elta ** A14tar 1A -. *nmarsat F2 1roton ,%.
-aVnDh FailVre %. %Valmanifested -aVnDh Xith another AddressaCle 4atellite &YamQle %.1 Xas Qaired Xith %.1 %.2 Xith %.2 etD %.6 %Valmanmested -aVnDh Xith /onAddressaCle 4atellite %.6 missions are DoVnted as a sinHle laVnDh in the laVnDh DoVnt
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix
TaCle 26 HistoriDal AddressaCle $ommerDial (4O 4atellites -aVnDhed 14214 $ontinVed
1997 1998 1999 Total -aVnDhes 24 1 1 Total 4atellites 28 2 2 OWer 5 4 LH 11 5 lCm 2 4 2 5 4 LH (alaYZ 11 Ariane 4 26 11 5 lCm Orion %elta *** 21 14 14 %.6 Hot #ird Ariane 4 %.4 Afristar Ariane 4 A.$ 4 Ariane 4 *ntelsat 81 Ariane 4 %. &Vtelsat 82 Ariane 4 %.1 AraCsat A Ariane 4 *ntelsat 82 Ariane 4 Hot #ird 4 Ariane 4 *nsat 2& Ariane 4 *ntelsat 8 Ariane 4 1A4 6# Ariane 4 ,oreasat Ariane 4 *ntelsat 84 Ariane 4 1A4 7 Ariane 4 Orion 2 Ariane 4 +$4at 5 Ariane 4 4atmeY 5 Ariane 4 TelLom Ariane 4 1A4 6 Ariane 4 4T 1 Ariane 4 Telstar 7 Ariane 4 %.4 4iriVs 2 Ariane 4 Hot #ird 5 Atlas ** &Dhostar 5 Atlas ** %.2 ThaiDom Ariane 4 *ntelsat 85 Atlas ** &Vtelsat 8 Atlas ** 2 5 4 2 LH A.$ Atlas ** *ntelsat 86 Atlas ** +$4at 6 Atlas ** 5 51 26 lCm %ireDT7 6 Atlas ** (alaYZ 1%elta *** Asiasat 4 1roton ,%. &Dho4tar Atlas ** Astra 2A 1roton ,%. Astra 1H 1roton ,%. (alaYZ 8i Atlas ** &Dho4tar 4 1roton ,%. -.* 1 1roton ,%. +$4at 4 Atlas ** 1A4 8 1roton ,%. /imiR1roton ,%. 4VQerCird $ Atlas ** Telstar 6 1roton ,%. AHila ** -.# %ireDT7 134ea -aVnDh A14tar 23 -.# Astra 1(1roton ,%. Asiasat 1roton ,%. 1A4 5 1roton ,%. Telstar 5 1roton ,%. 11 %.1A.$ 2 Ariane 4 %.4A.$ 5 Ariane 4 %.1 4LZnet 4& Ariane 4 %.2 #4at 1A Ariane 4 %.1 #ra[ilsat # Ariane 4 %.4 $aLraXarta 1 Ariane 4 %.2 #4at 1# Ariane 4 #eloX 2 5 LH %. *nmarsat F4 Ariane 4 %.1 *nmarsat F5 Ariane 4 5 51 lCm %. *nsat 2% Ariane 4 %.2 /ile4at 11 Ariane 4 %.1 /ahVel 1A Ariane 4 %. 4iriVs Ariane 4 Thor ** %elta ** #onVm 1 %elta ** 4LZnet 4%%elta ** Thor *** %elta **
-aVnDh FailVre %. %Valmanifested -aVnDh Xith another AddressaCle 4atellite &YamQle %.1 Xas Qaired Xith %.1 %.2 Xith %.2 etD %.6 %Valmanmested -aVnDh Xith /onAddressaCle 4atellite %.6 missions are DoVnted as a sinHle laVnDh in the laVnDh DoVnt
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TaCle 26 HistoriDal AddressaCle $ommerDial (4O 4atellites -aVnDhed 1421 $ontinVed
2000 2001 2002 Total -aVnDhes 2 12 2 Total 4atellites 24 14 22 OWer 5 4 LH 11 5 lCm 45 AniL F1 Ariane 4 %ireDT7 44 Ariane 4 *ntelsat 4 Ariane 4 1A4 13 Ariane 5 *ntelsat 1 Ariane 4 *ntelsat 5 Ariane 4 (arVda 1 1roton ,%. *ntelsat 2 Ariane 4 *ntelsat 6 Ariane 4 4 2 5 4 LH ThVraZa 1 4ea -aVnDh 9. 3oDL 4ea -aVnDh /44 6 Ariane 4 26 11 5 lCm 9. 3oll 4ea -aVnDh /44 7 Ariane 4 Astra 1,1roton ,%. &Dhostar 8 1roton ,%. *ntelsat 1roton ,%. (alaYZ $ 4ea -aVnDh 14 6 11 %.1 Asiastar 1 Ariane 5 AtlantiD #ird 2 Ariane 4 *nsat $ Ariane 4 %. Astra 2# Ariane 5 TVrLsat 2A Ariane 4 %.1 +$4at 8 Ariane 4 &VroQe 4tar 1 Ariane 4 %.2 Artemis Ariane 5 %.6 AtlantiD #ird 1 Ariane 5 &Vtelsat 813 Ariane 4 %.1 &VroCird Ariane 5 %.6 HotCird 7 Ariane 5 (alaYZ 13 Ariane 4 Astra 2$1roton ,%. %.2 4tellat 5 Ariane 5 (alaYZ *73 Ariane 4 1A4 11roton ,%. HisQasat 1% Atlas ** 2 5 4 2 LH /4at 11 Ariane 4 &Dhostar 7 Atlas *** 5 51 26 lCm 4VQerCird 4 Ariane 4 HotCird 6 Atlas 7 &Dhostar 6 Atlas ** &Vtelsat 85 %elta *7 HisQasat 1$ Atlas ** %ireDT7 5 1roton ,%. &Vtelsat 84 Atlas *** /imiR 2 1roton . AA1 1 1roton ,%. A.$ 6 1roton ,%. 1A4 4ea -aVnDh 6 2 %.2 #ra[ilsat #4 Ariane 4 %.6 4LZnet 4F Ariane 4 %.1 Astra A Ariane 4 %.2 /ilesat 12 Ariane 4 %.1 #4at 2A Ariane 5 %.2 /4TA3 D Ariane 5 #eloX 2 5 LH %. A.$ 7 Ariane 5 %.2 #4at 2# Ariane 5 5 51 lCm %.4A.$ 8 Ariane 5 %.4 Astra 2% Ariane 5 %.1 *nsat # Ariane 5
-aVnDh FailVre %. %Valmanifested -aVnDh Xith another AddressaCle 4atellite &YamQle %.1 Xas Qaired Xith %.1 %.2 Xith %.2 etD %.6 %Valmanmested -aVnDh Xith /onAddressaCle 4atellite %.6 missions are DoVnted as a sinHle laVnDh in the laVnDh DoVnt
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix
TaCle 26 HistoriDal AddressaCle $ommerDial (4O 4atellites -aVnDhed 1421 $ontinVed
2003 200 4 2005 Total -aVnDhes 12 1 15 Total 4atellites 15 1 16 6 AniL F2 Ariane 5 %.1 4QaDeXaZ 2 Ariane 5 *ntelsat 91roton . ThaiDom 4 Ariane 5 OWer 5 4 LH %ireDT7 744ea -aVnDh *nmarsat 4F1 Atlas 7 11 5 lCm *A 8 4ea -aVnDh *nmarsat 4F2 4ea -aVnDh 4QaDeXaZ 1 4ea -aVnDh 544 *ntelsat 7 Ariane 4 Ama[onas 1roton . A.$ 12 1roton . 4 2 5 4 LH %.2OQtVs $1 Ariane 5 &Vtelsat 8A 1roton . A.$ 21roton . 26 11 5 lCm 3ainCoX 1 Atlas 7 A14tar 74ea -aVnDh AniL F131roton . &Dho4tar 4ea -aVnDh &strela do 4Vl 4ea -aVnDh 9. 4ea -aVnDh ThVraZa 2 4ea -aVnDh 64 %.1 *nsat A Ariane 5 4VQerCird 6 Atlas ** *nsat 4A Ariane 5 %. *nsat & Ariane 5 .#4at Atlas *** %.6 9TA3&63 Ariane 5 2 5 4 2 LH Asiasat 4 Atlas *** A.$ 16 Atlas 7%ireDT7 8 1roton . 5 51 26 lCm Hellas4at Atlas 7 A.$ 15 1roton . A.$ 1roton ,. (alaYZ 14ea -aVnDh 42
%.2 #sat 2$ Ariane 5 A.$ 1 Atlas ** %.1TelLom 2 Ariane 5 #eloX 2 5 LH %. e#ird 1 Ariane 5 A.$ 11 Atlas ** %.6 (alaYZ 15 Ariane 5 5 51 lCm %.1 (alaYZ 12 Ariane 5 (alaYZ 14 4oZV[ Amos 2 4oZV[
-aVnDh FailVre %. %Valmanifested -aVnDh Xith another AddressaCle 4atellite &YamQle %.1 Xas Qaired Xith %.1 %.2 Xith %.2 etD %.6 %Valmanmested -aVnDh Xith /onAddressaCle 4atellite %.6 missions are DoVnted as a sinHle laVnDh in the laVnDh DoVnt
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TaCle 26 HistoriDal AddressaCle $ommerDial (4O 4atellites -aVnDhed 1421 $ontinVed
2006 2007 2008 Total -aVnDhes 15 12 18 Total 4atellites 1 18 2 2 5 %.2 4atmeY 6 Ariane 5 %. 4QaDeXaZ Ariane 5 *$O (1 Atlas 7
OWer 5 4 LH %. %ireDT7 4 Ariane 5 %ireDT7 11roton .$iel 2 1roton . *nmarsat 11 5 lCm /44 8 4ea -aVnDh 1roton . 4F %ireDT7 11 4ea -aVnDh &Dhostar 11 4ea -aVnDh 68 %.4 8ildClVe 1 Ariane 5 %.2 Astra 1- Ariane 5 %. Hot#ird Ariane 5 Astra 1,3 Atlas 7%.1 4LZnet 5A Ariane 5 %.1 4LZnet 5$ Ariane 5 HotCird 8 1roton .%.5 4LZnet 5# Ariane 5 %.5 4VQerCird 7 Ariane 5
4 2 5 4 LH .easat 1roton ./iHDomsat -.# Astra 1.1roton . 26 11 5 lCm &Dhostar 14ea -aVnDh AniL F1roton ./imiR 4 1roton . (alaYZ 16 4ea -aVnDh 4&4 4iriVs 4 1roton .(alaYZ 18 4ea -aVnDh +$4at 4ea -aVnDh (alaYZ 14ea -aVnDh ,oreasat 5 4ea -aVnDhThVraZa 4ea -aVnDh 9. 4 4ea -aVnDh 65 8 %.1 HotCird 7A Ariane 5 %.2 (alaYZ 17 Ariane 5 %.1TVrLsat A Ariane 5 %.6 +$4at 1 Ariane 5 %.1 *nsat 4# Ariane 5 %.2 #adr 6 Ariane 5 %.1 4Qainsat Ariane 5 %.6 3A4$O. 1 Ariane 5 %.2 1rotostar 1 Ariane 5 2 5 4 2 LH &Vtelsat %.2 ThaiDom 5 Ariane 5 %.5 4tar One $1 Ariane 5 %. Ariane 5 5 51 26 lCm 82. AraCsat 4A 1roton . +$4at 11 1roton .%.4 7inasat Ariane 5 AraCsat 4#1roton .%.4 4tarOne $2 Ariane 5 %.5A.$ 21 Ariane 5 A.$ 14 1roton .
24 2
%.4A.$ 18 Ariane 5 %. #sat A Ariane 5 A.O4 -and -aVnDh #eloX 2 5 LH %. OQtVs %1 Ariane 5 %.4 *ntelsat 11 Ariane 5 Thor 5 1roton . 5 51 lCm %.4OQtVs %2 Ariane 5
%.6 Hori[ons Ariane 5
-aVnDh FailVre %. %Valmanifested -aVnDh Xith another AddressaCle 4atellite &YamQle %.1 Xas Qaired Xith %.1 %.2 Xith %.2 etD %.6 %Valmanmested -aVnDh Xith /onAddressaCle 4atellite %.6 missions are DoVnted as a sinHle laVnDh in the laVnDh DoVnt
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix
TaCle 26 HistoriDal AddressaCle $ommerDial (4O 4atellites -aVnDhed 1421 $ontinVed
2009 2010 2011 Total -aVnDhes 18 14 12 Total 4atellites 22 2 15 87 %.1 Ama[onas 2 Ariane 5 %.4 &Vtelsat 8# Ariane 5 %.1 :ahsat 1A Ariane 5 %.2 /44 12 Ariane 5 AraCsat 5#1roton .2Vet[sat 1roton . Terrestar 1 Ariane 5 &Dhostar 14 1roton .7iasat 1 1roton . OWer 5 4 LH *ntelsat 14 Atlas 7&Dhostar 15 1roton . 11 5 lCm %ireDT7 12 1roton .,A4at 1roton . &Vtelsat 82A 1roton . 4LZTerra 1 1roton . &Vtelsat 87 1roton .9. 5 1roton . 4iriVs F.5 1roton . 246 %. HotCird 1 Ariane 5 %.1 Astra # Ariane 5 %. AraCsat 5$ Ariane 5 /imiR 5 1roton .%.2 AraCsat 5A Ariane 5 %.2 Astra 1/ Ariane 5 4 2 5 4 LH %.6 HisQasat 1& Ariane 5 %.6 4T 2 Ariane 5 26 11 5 lCm %.5 *ntelsat 17 Ariane 5 &Vtelsat 8$ -onH .arDh Telstar 1431roton . AtlantiD #ird 7 4ea -aVnDh 66 %.4 +$4at 12 Ariane 5 %.5HZlas Ariane 5 %.2 #4AT $ Ariane 5 %.1 4atDom #81 Ariane 5 %.6 ,oreasat 6 Ariane 5 %.1 /eX %aXn Ariane 5 %.2 Thor 6 Ariane 5 %. /ilesat 21 Ariane 5 %. 4&4 2 Ariane 5 -and Telstar 1/-and -aVnDh %. 3A4$O. 13 Ariane 5 *ntelsat 18 2 5 4 2 LH -aVnDh 5 51 26 lCm *ntelsat 15 -onH .arDh %.1 4atDom #82 Ariane 5 Asiasat 7 1roton . 1roton . 1alaQa %-onH .arDh 4&4 1 1roton . %.6 4&4 %. Asiasat 5 1roton . 1rotostar ** 1roton . 4iDral 1#4ea -aVnDh %. /44 Ariane 5 %.1TelLom 2 Ariane 5 #eloX 2 5 LH %.4OQtVs % Ariane 5 %.6 (alaYZ 15 Ariane 5 5 51 lCm .easat A -and -aVnDh (alaYZ 14 4oZV[
-aVnDh FailVre %. %Valmanifested -aVnDh Xith another AddressaCle 4atellite &YamQle %.1 Xas Qaired Xith %.1 %.2 Xith %.2 etD %.6 %Valmanmested -aVnDh Xith /onAddressaCle 4atellite %.6 missions are DoVnted as a sinHle laVnDh in the laVnDh DoVnt
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TaCle 26 HistoriDal AddressaCle $ommerDial (4O 4atellites -aVnDhed 1421 $ontinVed
2012 2013 Total -aVnDhes 12 1 Total 4atellites 21 16 1 1 %. Astra 2F Ariane 5 %.1 Ama[onas Ariane 5 %.6 &Dhostar 17 Ariane 5 %.2AlQhasat Ariane 5 %.2 *ntelsat 2 Ariane 5 %. &Vtelsat 25# Ariane 5 &Dhostar 16 1roton .4atmeY 8 1roton . OWer 5 4 LH *ntelsat 22 1roton .&Vtelsat 7#1roton . 11 5 lCm 4&4 4 1roton . 4&4 6 1roton . 4&4 5 1roton . Astra 2&1roton . :ahsat 1#1roton .4iriVs F.6 1roton . *ntelsat 14ea -aVnDh *nmarsat 5F1 1roton . *ntelsat 21 4ea -aVnDh *ntelsat 27 4ea -aVnDh 51 %.4 &Vtelsat 21# Ariane 5 AniL (1 1roton . %.1 +$4AT 1 Ariane 5 4 2 5 4 LH %.5 4LZnet 5% Ariane 5 26 11 5 lCm /imiR 6 1roton . &Vtelsat 7# 4ea -aVnDh
65 %. (4AT 1 Ariane 5 %.1 AfriDasat 1A Ariane 5 %.2HZlas 2 Ariane 5 %.2 (4AT 7 Ariane 5 2 5 4 2 LH %.5 .eYsat Ariane 5 %. *nsat % Ariane 5 5 51 26 lCm %.4 4tar One $ Ariane 5 4&4 8 FalDon %.1 7inasat 2 Ariane 5 Amos 4 -and -aVnDh *ntelsat 21roton . #eloX 2 5 LH 5 51 lCm
-aVnDh FailVre %. %Valmanifested -aVnDh Xith another AddressaCle 4atellite &YamQle %.1 Xas Qaired Xith %.1 %.2 Xith %.2 etD %.6 %Valmanmested -aVnDh Xith /onAddressaCle 4atellite %.6 missions are DoVnted as a sinHle laVnDh in the laVnDh DoVnt
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix
TaCle 27 HistoriDal 6naddressaCle $ommerDial (4O 4atellites -aVnDhed 1421
1997 1994 1995 1996 -aVnDhes 4 1 4 1 4QaDeDraft 4 2 5 1 %FH 1 -.A %.$ TeleDom 2$ Ariane 4 %.$ TeleDom 2% Ariane 4 $hinasat 6 -.A &YQress 1roton ,%. (als 2 1roton ,%. $hinasat 7 -.A (als1 1roton ,%. &YQress 2 1roton ,%. (ori[ont 42 1roton ,%. (ori[ont 41roton ,%. (ori[ont 44 1roton ,%. 18 1999 2 2001
-aVnDhes 2 2 5 1 4QaDeDraft 2 51 $hina4tar 1 -.# &YQress A1 1roton ,%. &YQress A2 1roton ,%. &Lran .1roton . 4inosat 1 -.$ %.1 :amal 11 1roton ,%. &YQress A1roton ,%. %.1 :amal 12 1roton ,%. (ori[ont 45 1roton ,. 4&4AT 1 1roton ,%. $hinasat 22 -.A 222 2425 -aVnDhes 1 2 4QaDeDraft 1 4 2 &YQress &YQress &YQress 1roton , &YQress A4 1roton ,%. 1roton ,%. 1roton ,%. A.22 A.11 A. 2 %. &YQress 1roton , %.1 :amal 21 1roton ,%. &YQress A.1 1roton ,%. A. %. %.1 :amal 22 1roton ,%. AQstar 6 -.# $hinasat 2 -.A 2627282 -aVnDhes 4 4 1 4QaDeDraft 4 4 2 &YQress ,a[sat 1roton ,%. 4inosat -.# 7enesat 1 -.# %.1 1roton . .%1 &YQress 4inosat 2 -.4#$hinasat 6# -.# $hinasat -.# %.1 1roton . A.44 &YQress $hinasat 22A -.A /iHDomsat 1 -.# 1roton A. *nsat 4$ (4-7 *nsat 4$3 (4-7 21 211 212 21 -aVnDhes 86 4QaDeDraft 1 8 $hina4at 6A -.# (4AT 8 Ariane 5 AQstar 7 -.# $hina4at -.A $hinasat 1 -.# $hinasat 2A -.# 2A *nsat 4% (4-7 $hinasat 1A -.# $hinasat 12 -.# &YQress /iHDomsat 13 -.# %.1 1roton . .%2 1aLsat 13 -.# %.2 -VDh 5#1roton . %.1 Amos 5 1roton .%.1TelLom 1roton . %.1 -VDh 5A 1roton .%.2 :amal , 1roton . &YQress 1roton .:amal 42 1roton . A.4 %.A ,a[sat 2 1roton . (4AT 12 14-7
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APPENDIX 2: HISTORICAL NGSO MARKET ASSESSMENTS
*n the last deDade of laVnDh aDtiWitZ there haWe Ceen siHnimDant DhanHes in the amoVnt of QaZloads and laVnDhes foreDasted eaDh Zear Xith QaZloads and laVnDhes remaininH steadZ from 2 to 26 then CeHinninH to inDrease in 27 OWerall the 21 /(4O reQort QroKeDts demand DonsistentlZ hiHher than the aWeraHe of 55 laVnDhes Qer Zear oWer the last 1 Zears
*n the last tXo deDades of DommerDial /(4O satellite laVnDh aDtiWitZ the teleDommVniDations marLet QVt larHe Donstellations of satellites into orCit Xithin a feX Zears DreatinH a short sQVrt of intense laVnDh aDtiWitZ This Xas the Dase in 17 to 1 Xhen the three maKor sZstems (loCalstar *ridiVm and O3#$O.. laVnDhed The 21 /(4O reQort shoXs the laVnDhes sDhedVled to deQloZ the reQlaDement satellites for eaDh of the sZstems (loCalstar Qlans to DomQlete their Donstellation in 215 and a neX OC Donstellation Xill laVnDh at the same time as O3#$O.. Qlans its maKor laVnDh DamQaiHn The *ridiVm /&9T deQloZment sDhedVle does not fVllZ oWerlaQ Xith the other Donstellations as it did in the late 1s
The Other $ommerDiallZ -aVnDhed 4atellites and $ommerDial 3emote 4ensinH 4atellite marLets Dreate Donsistent laVnDh demand aDDordinH to historiDal mHVres 4inDe 16 there had alXaZs Ceen at least one laVnDh of a HoWernment satellite laVnDhed DommerDiallZ The $ommerDial 3emote 4ensinH .arLet has loX laVnDh demand and it is more sQoradiD than Other $ommerDiallZ -aVnDhed 4atellites
The nVmCer of QaZloads laVnDhed CZ marLet seDtor and the total DommerDial laVnDhes that Xere internationallZ DomQeted or DommerDiallZ sQonsored from 2 throVHh 212 are QroWided in TaCle 28 4mall WehiDles Qerformed 22 laVnDhes dVrinH this Qeriod Xhile mediVmtoheaWZ WehiDles DondVDted laVnDhes From 14 to the end of 26 the historiDal nVmCer of laVnDhes CetXeen WehiDle Dlasses Xas roVHhlZ eRVal This roVHhlZ eWen sQlit is not eYQeDted to DontinVe Xith a trend emerHinH sinDe 27 of QaZloads inDreasinHlZ laVnDhinH on mediVmtoheaWZ WehiDles The 21 /(4O reQort estimates the larHer WehiDle Dlass Xill DontinVe to DondVDt the most laVnDhes
HistoriDal satellite and laVnDh data from 2 throVHh 21 are shoXn in TaCle 2
TaCle 28 HistoriDal 1aZloads and -aVnDhes6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Payloads $ommerDial TeleDommVniDation 2 86261411251 $ommerDial 3emote 4ensinH 11 8112 8 25 $ommerDial $arHo and $reX 1 225 TransQortation 4erWiDes Other $ommerDiallZ -aVnDhed 77 1 67641559 4atellites TeDhnoloHZ Test %emonstration 111 1 1 5 Total Satellites 9 8 5 25 19 10 15 20 4 28 145 Launches .ediVmtoHeaWZ 7ehiDles 1 21 4278 41 4mall 7ehiDles 1 26 1 2 21 Total Launches235121058331062 6 *nDlVdes QaZloads oQen to international laVnDh serWiDes QroDVrement and other DommerDiallZ sQonsored QaZloads %oes not inDlVde dVmmZ QaZloads QiHHZCaDL QaZloads or satellites that are DaQtiWe to national naH laVnDh serWiDe QroWiders ie 64 Air ForDe or /A4A satellites or similar &VroQean 3Vssian +aQanese or $hinese HoWernment satellites that are DaQtiWe to their oXn laVnDh QroWiders OnlZ QrimarZ QaZloads that Henerate a laVnDh are inDlVded Vnless DomCined seDondarZ QaZloads Henerate the demand
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix
TaCle 2 HistoriDal /(4O 1aZload and -aVnDh ADtiWities 2421
Summary Market Segment Date Satellite Launch Vehicle 2013 28 4atellites TeleDommVniDation 261 (loCalstar ** 124 4oZV[ 21a .ediVmtoHeaWZ 12 TeleDommVniDation 6251 OC 14 4oZV[ 21C .ediVmtoHeaWZ 8 3emote 4ensinH AQri[e4at 78 2 TransQortation 3emote 4ensinH 8221 ,omQsat5 %neQr .ediVmtoHeaWZ 6 Other 11211 %VCai4at2 %neQt .ediVmtoHeaWZ 4LZ4at1 1 -aVnDhes 8*/*4AT1 8 .ediVmtoHeaWZ %oWe 14 2 4mall TransQortation 11 %raHon $34 %2 FalDon .ediVmtoHeaWZ 181 OrC%1 Antares .ediVmtoHeaWZ Other 4211 AO/& Antares .ediVmtoHeaWZ 1111 4T14AT .inotaVr * 4mall $A44*O1& FalDon .ediVmtoHeaWZ 48A3. 1 3oDLot 4mall 2012 4 4atellites TeleDommVniDation O3#$O.. O(211 1 TeleDommVniDation TransQortation 52212 %raHon $OT4 %emo 2 FalDon .ediVmtoHeaWZ 2 TransQortation 1712 %raHon $34 %1 FalDon .ediVmtoHeaWZ 1 Other Other 12112 (ÚLtVrL 2 -. 2%.ediVmtoHeaWZ
-aVnDhes .ediVmtoHeaWZ 2011 2 4atellites TeleDommVniDation 7111 (loCalstar 2nd (en 712 4oZV[ 2 .ediVmtoHeaWZ 14 TeleDommVniDation AQri[e4tar 562 2 3emote 4ensinH 122811 (loCalstar 2nd (en118 4oZV[ 2 .ediVmtoHeaWZ 4 Other 3emote 4ensinH/iHeriasat2A /9# -aVnDhes Other 81711 4iDh 2 %neQr .ediVmtoHeaWZ .ediVmtoHeaWZ 3A4AT &dVsat #1A2 2010 15 Satellites TeleDommVniDation 111(loCalstar 2nd (en 16 4oZV[ 2 .ediVmtoHeaWZ 6 TeleDommVniDation 3emote 4ensinH 621 Tan%&. 9%neQr ..ediVmtoHeaWZ 1 3emote 4ensinH 6 Other Other 471 $rZosat 2 %neQr . .ediVmtoHeaWZ 1 Test and %emo 611 4&37*4 2 3oDLot 4mall 1 TransQortation 6141 1risma 2 sats %neQr . .ediVmtoHeaWZ 1iDard4 8 Launches 1151 $osmos4LZ.ed 4 %elta ** .ediVmtoHeaWZ 7 .ediVmtoHeaWZ Test and %emo 61 FalDon %emo FliHht FalDon .ediVmtoHeaWZ 1 4mall TransQortation 1281%raHon $OT4 %emo 1 FalDon .ediVmtoHeaWZ
-aVnDh FailVre %. %Valmanifested -aVnDh Xith another 6naddressaCle 4atellite &YamQle %.1 Xas Qaired Xith %.1 %.2 Xith %.2 etD %.A %Valmanmested -aVnDh Xith AddressaCle 4atellite %.A missions are not DoVnted as a laVnDh in the laVnDh DoVnt
1 O3#$O.. O(21 deQloZed on laVnDh Xith %raHon $34 1% /iHeriasat2 and /9 deQloZed on laVnDh Xith 4iDh 2 et al 2 AQri[e4tar 5 6 deQloZed on laVnDh Xith 4iDh 2 et al 4 1iDard deQloZed on laVnDh Xith 1risma .ain TarHet
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TaCle 2 HistoriDal /(4O 4atellite and 1aZload ADtiWities 2421 $ontinVed
Summary Market Segment Date Satellite Launch Vehicle 2009 12 Satellites TeleDommVniDation AQri[e4tar 45 2 TeleDommVniDation 3emote 4ensinH 18 8orldWieX 2 %elta ** .ediVmtoHeaWZ 3emote 4ensinH %&*.O46A 7 Other 6, %.$ 26# Other 71 3a[aL4at FalDon * 4mall 5 Launches 72 %VCai4at 1 %neQr .ediVmtoHeaWZ 2 .ediVmtoHeaWZ /anosat 1# 4mall 17 (O$& 3oDLot 4mall 112 4.O4 3oDLot 4mall 1roCa 2 6(AT64AT 7 2008 19 Satellites TeleDommVniDation 618OrCDomm 3eQlaDement 15 $osmos . 4mall 6 TeleDommVniDation OrCDomm $%4 6 3emote 4ensinH 3emote 4ensinH 828 3aQid&Ze 15 %neQr 1 .ediVmtoHeaWZ 6 Other 68 (eo&Ze1 %elta ** .ediVmtoHeaWZ 1 Test and %emo Other 278 4A3 -VQe 4 $osmos . 4mall 10 Launches 4168 $/OF4 1eHasVs 9- 4mall 4 .ediVmtoHeaWZ 7228 4A3 -VQe 5 $osmos . 4mall 6 4mall 88 TrailCla[erF FalDon 1 4mall 118 TH&O4 %neQr 1 .ediVmtoHeaWZ 1248 $osmo4LZ.ed %elta ** .ediVmtoHeaWZ Test and %emo 288 FalDon 1 .ass 4imVlator FalDon 1 4mall 2007 25 Satellites TeleDommVniDation 57 (loCalstar 3eQlaDement 14 4oZV[ .ediVmto HeaWZ 8 TeleDommVniDation 121 (loCalstar 3eQlaDement 58 4oZV[ .ediVmtoHeaWZ 3emote 4ensinH 3emote 4ensinH 6157 Terra4A39 %neQr .ediVmtoHeaWZ 1 Other 187 8orld7ieX 1 %elta ** .ediVmtoHeaWZ 1 Test and %emo 12147 3A%A34AT 2 4oZV[% .ediVmtoHeaWZ 12 Launches Other 4177 &HZQtsat %neQr .ediVmtoHeaWZ 1 .ediVmtoHeaWZ 4aVdi$omsat 7 2 4mall 4aVdisat 427 A(*-& 14-7 .ediVmtoHeaWZ AA. 677 $osmos4LZ.ed 1 %elta ** .ediVmtoHeaWZ 727 4A3 -VQe 2 $osmos . 4mall 1117 4A3 -VQe $osmos . 4mall 1287 $osmo4LZ.ed 2 %elta ** .ediVmtoHeaWZ Test and %emo 6287 (enesis ** %neor .ediVmtoHeaWZ 2006 5 Satellites 3emote 4ensinH 4256 &3O4 #4TA3T 1 4mall 1 3emote 4ensinH Other 7286 ,omQsat 2 3oDLot 4mall Other 12276 $orot 4oZV[ 2 1# .ediVmtoHeaWZ 1 Test and %emo 1216 4A3 -VQe 1 $osmos 4mall 5 Launches 2 .ediVmtoHeaWZ 4mall Test and %emo 7126 (enesis 1 4oZV[ 2 1#.ediVmtoHeaWZ 2006
5 AQri[e4tar 4 deQloZed on laVnDh Xith %VCai4at 1 6 %&*.O4 and 6, %.$ 2 deQloZed on laVnDh Xith %VCai4at 1 7 6(AT64AT deQloZed on laVnDh Xith .eteor ./ F -aVnDh FailVre
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix
TaCle 2 HistoriDal /(4O 4atellite and 1aZload ADtiWities 2421 $ontinVed
Summary Market Segment Date Satellite Launch Vehicle 5 Satellites 3emote 4ensinH 4256 &3O4 #4TA3T 1 4mall 1 3emote 4ensinH Other 7286 ,omQsat 2 3oDLot 4mall Other 12276 $orot 4oZV[ 2 1# .ediVmtoHeaWZ 1 Test and %emo 1216 4A3 -VQe 1 $osmos 4mall
5 -aVnDhes 2 .ediVmtoHeaWZ 4mall
2005 8 Satellites 3emote 4ensinH 1275 #eiKinH 1 $osmos 4mall 1 3emote 4ensinH Other 188 $rZosat 3oDLotF 4mall 7 Other 6215 $osmos 1 7olnaF 4mall 3VCin 58A 3 Launches 4inah 18# 4mall 44&T* &YQress8$ .o[haZets 5% ToQsat& 2004 9 Satellites TeleDommVniDation -atin4at 2 sats 2 TeleDommVniDation Other 524 3oDsat 2 TaVrVs 4mall 7 Other 624 %emeter %neQr .ediVmtoHeaWZ A.4at&Dho1A 2 Launches 4aVdi$om4at 121# 1 .ediVmtoHeaWZ 4aVdi4at 21$ 1 4mall 6nisat 1%
8 3VCin 5 4inah 1 44&T* &YQress .o[haZets 5 and ToQsat deQloZed on laVnDh Xith #eiKinH 1 -atin4at deQloZed on laVnDh Xith %emeter 1 A.4at&Dho 4aVdi$om4AT 12 4aVdi4at 2 and 6nisat deQloZed on laVnDh Xith %emeter 11 3VCin 4%4* deQloZed on laVnDh Xith #il4at 1 F -aVnDh FailVre
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APPENDIX 3: VEHICLE SIZES AND ORBITS
4mall laVnDh WehiDles are demned as those Xith a QaZload DaQaDitZ of less than 2 268 LiloHrams 5 QoVnds at 185 Lilometers 1 naVtiDal miles altitVde and a 285deHree inDlination .ediVmtoheaWZ laVnDh WehiDles are DaQaCle of DarrZinH more than 2 26 LiloHrams at 185 Lilometers altitVde and a 285deHree inDlination
$ommerDial /(4O sZstems Vse a WarietZ of orCits
t -oX &arth orCits -&O ranHe from 162 4 Lilometers 11 5 miles in altitVde WarZinH CetXeen a deHree inDlination for eRVatorial DoWeraHe and a 11 deHree inDlination for HloCal DoWeraHe
t .ediVm &arth orCits .&O CeHin at 2 4 Lilometers 1 5 miles in altitVde and are tZQiDallZ at a 45deHree inDlination to alloX HloCal DoWeraHe Xith feXer hiHhQoXered satellites HoXeWer .&O is often a term aQQlied to anZ orCit CetXeen -&O and (4O
t &lliQtiDal orCits &-* also LnoXn as hiHhlZ elliQtiDal orCits or H&O haWe aQoHees ranHinH from 7 6 Lilometers 4 725 miles to 5 47 Lilometers 22 miles in altitVde and VQ to a 1165deHree inDlination alloXinH satellites to ihanHw oWer Dertain reHions on &arth sVDh as /orth AmeriDa
t &Yternal or nonHeoDentriD orCits &9T are Dentered on a Delestial CodZ other than &arth TheZ differ from &-* orCits in that theZ are not Dlosed looQs aroVnd &arth and a sQaDeDraft in &9T Xill not retVrn to an &arth orCit *n some Dases this term is Vsed for QaZloads intended to reaDh another Delestial CodZ sVDh as the .oon
APPENDIX 4: MASS CLASSES FOR GSO AND NGSO PAYLOADS
TaCle .ass $lasses for (4O and /(4O 1aZloads
Class Name Kilograms (kg) Pounds (lb) Femto 1 1 2 2 1iDo 1 1 2 2 /ano 1 1 2 22 .iDro 1 2 22 441 .ini 2 6 441 1 2 4mall 6 1 2 1 2 2 646 .ediVm1 2 2 5 2 646 5 512 *ntermediate 2 5 4 2 5 512 25 -arHe4 2 5 4 25 11 5 HeaWZ 5 4 7 11 5 15 42 &Ytra HeaWZ 7 15 42
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix
APPENDIX 5: ACRONYMS
21AT TXentZ First $entVrZ AerosQaDe TeDhnoloHZ $omQanZ -td A#4 Asia #roadDast 4atellite A*4 AVtomatiD *dentimDation 4Zstem A%F AVstralian %efense ForDe AT, Alliant TeDhnoloHies AT7 AVtomated Transfer 7ehiDle #&A. #iHeloX &YQandaCle ADtiWitZ .odVle #.#F Federal .inistrZ of &dVDation and 3esearDh #1A #loL 1ersQeLtiWnoZ AWioniLi $A44*O1& $asDade 4mallsat and *onosQheriD 1olar &YQlorer $A4T $hinese ADademZ of 4QaDe TeDhnoloHZ $$AF4 $aQe $anaWeral Air ForDe 4tation $$%eW $ommerDial $reX %eWeloQment $$i$A1 $ommerDial $reX *nteHrated $aQaDitZ $&O $hief &YeDVtiWe OfmDer $H*31 $ommerDiallZ Hosted *nfrared 1aZload FliHht %emonstration 1roHram $O.4TA$ $ommerDial 4QaDe TransQortation AdWisorZ $ommittee $OT4 $ommerDial OrCital TransQortation 4erWiDes $1$ $ertimDation 1rodVDt $ontraDt $34 $ommerDial 3esVQQlZ 4erWiDes $4A $anadian 4QaDe AHenDZ $448& $olorado 4tVdent 4QaDe 8eather &YQeriment $4T1 $reX 4QaDe TransQortation1 $9#/ $osmiD 93aZ #aDLHroVnd %A34 %iHital AVdio 3adio 4erWiDe %#4 %ireDt #roadDastinH 4erWiDes %&. %iHital &leWation .odel %-3 %eVtsDhes ;entrVm fàr -Vft Vnd 3aVmfahrt (erman sQaDe aHenDZ %.$ %isaster .onitorinH $onstellation %.$ii %.$ *nternational *maHinH -td %TH %ireDttoHome &A%4 &VroQean AeronaVtiD %efenDe and 4QaDe $omQanZ &A- &YDaliCVr Alma[ -td &$A &YQort $redit AHenDZ &%34 &VroQean %ata 3elaZ 4Zstem &(/O4 &VroQean (eostationarZ /aWiHation OWerlaZ 4erWiDe &-a/a &dVDational -aVnDh of /anosatellites
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&-* HiHhlZ &lliQtiDal OrCit &3O4 &arth 3emote OCserWation 4atellite &4A &VroQean 4QaDe AHenDZ &9*. &YQort*mQort #and &9T &Yternal or /on(eoDentriD OrCit FAA A4T Federal AWiation Administration OfmDe of $ommerDial 4QaDe TransQortation F$$ Federal $ommVniDations $ommission F: FisDal :ear F44 FiYed 4atellite 4erWiDes (*4 (eoHraQhiD *nformation 4Zstems (.8 (eo.et8atDh (14 (loCal 1ositioninH 4Zstem (4-7 (eosZnDhronoVs 4atellite -aVnDh 7ehiDle (4O (eosZnDhronoVs OrCit (TO (eosZnDhronoVs Transfer OrCit H%T7 HiHh %emnition TeleWision 4erWiDes H&O HiHhlZ &lliQtiDal OrCit H1A Hosted 1aZload AllianDe *$- *mQerial $olleHe -ondon *-4 *nternational -aVnDh 4erWiDes *1O *nitial 1VCliD OfferinH *43O *ndian 4QaDe 3esearDh OrHani[ation *44 *nternational 4QaDe 4tation *TA3 *nternational TrafmD in Arms 3eHVlations *TT *nternational TeleQhone TeleHraQh *T6 *nternational TeleDommVniDations 6nion ,A3* ,orea AerosQaDe 3esearDh *nstitVte ,4-7 ,orean 4QaDe -aVnDh 7ehiDle -&O -oX &arth OrCit -$3% -aser $ommVniDations 3elaZ %emonstration --$ -imited -iaCilitZ $omQanZ .&O .ediVm &arth OrCit .H* .itsVCishi HeaWZ *ndVstries -td .1$7 .Vlti 1VrQose $reX 7ehiDle .44 .oCile 4atellite 4erWiDes /A4A /ational AeronaVtiDs and 4QaDe Administration /&$ /iQQon &leDtriD $omQanZ /(A /ational (eosQatial*ntelliHenDe AHenDZ /(4O /on(eosZnDhronoVs OrCits
2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix
/OAA /ational ODeaniD and AtmosQheriD Administration OC Other Three #illion /etXorLs -td OH# OrCitale HoDhteDhnoloHie #remen OrCital OrCital 4DienDes $orQoration 14-7 1olar 4atellite -aVnDh 7ehiDle 3$. 3A%A34AT $onstellation .ission 337 3eVsaCle 3etVrn 7ehiDle 4AA 4QaDe ADt AHreement 4A3 4ZnthetiD AQertVre 3adar 4#A4 4atellite#ased AVHmentation 4Zstems 4/$ 4ierra /eWada $orQoration 4QaDe9 4QaDe &YQloration TeDhnoloHies $orQoration 41OT 4atellite 1oVr l’OCserWation de la Terre 44- 4QaDe 4Zstems -oral 44O 4Vn4ZnDhronoVs OrCit 44T- 4VrreZ 4atellite TeDhnoloHZ -imited T#% To #e %etermined T49 Terra4A3 9Cand 6A& 6nited AraC &mirates 6$*4AT 6niWersitZ of $alifornia *rWine 4atellite 6HF 6ltraHiHh FreRVenDZ 6-A 6nited -aVnDh AllianDe 64-. 6nited 4tates .Vnitions -ist 64AF 6nited 4tates Air ForDe 8AA4 8ide Area AVHmentation 4Zstem
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