Federal Aviation Administration 2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts May 2014 FAA Commercial Space Transportation (AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts $ERXWWKH)$$2IÀFHRI&RPPHUFLDO6SDFH7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ 5IF'FEFSBM"WJBUJPO"ENJOJTUSBUJPOT0Gm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mDJBM FOEPSTFNFOU PG TVDI QSPEVDUT PS NBOVGBDUVSFST FJUIFS FYQSFTTFE PS JNQMJFE CZ UIF 'FEFSBM "WJBUJPO "ENJOJTUSBUJPO L )HGHUDO$YLDWLRQ$GPLQLVWUDWLRQҋV2IÀFHRI&RPPHUFLDO6SDFH7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................1 COMSTAC 2014 COMMERCIAL GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT LAUNCH DEMAND FORECAST .....................................5 46.."3: 5 )*4503: 0' 5)& 3&1035 6 '03&$"45 .&5)0%0-0(: 7 $0.45"$ $0..&3$*"- (40 -"6/$) %&."/% '03&$"45 3&46-54 8 "EESFTTBCMF WT 6OBEESFTTBCMF 8 .BTT $MBTTFT %VBM.BOJGFTUJOH 11 /FBS5FSN %FNBOE 'PSFDBTU 1 $PNQBSJTPO XJUI 1SFWJPVT $0.45"$ 'PSFDBTUT 14 $0.45"$ %&."/% 130+&$5*0/ 74 "$56"- -"6/$)&4 3&"-*;&% 15 'BDUPST 5IBU "GGFDU 4BUFMMJUF -BVODI 3FBMJ[BUJPO 15 1SPKFDUJOH "DUVBM 4BUFMMJUFT -BVODIFE 6TJOH B 3FBMJ[BUJPO 'BDUPS 16 '"$5034 5)"5 .": "''&$5 '6563& %&."/% 17 %FNBOE GPS 4BUFMMJUF 4FSWJDFT 17 (MPCBMJ[BUJPO 17 .PCJMJUZ 18 .BSLFU 4FHNFOUT 18 4BUFMMJUF 5FDIOPMPHJFT 4QFDUSVN -JNJUBUJPOT BOE 0SCJUBM 4MPU -JNJUBUJPOT 21 /FX "QQMJDBUJPOT 22 0O0SCJU 4FSWJDJOH 2 $PNQFUJUJPO GSPN -&0 4ZTUFNT 2 )PTUFE 1BZMPBET 24 -BVODI 4FSWJDF 1SPWJEFST 26 .VMUJBVODI 4FSWJDF "HSFFNFOUT 27 $PPQFSBUJPO BOE 1BSUOFSTIJQT 27 (FPQPMJUJDBM *OnVFODFT PO -BVODI 7FIJDMF %FNBOE 28 *NQBDU PG *OUFSOBUJPOBM i(PWFSONFOU UP (PWFSONFOUw 4BUFMMJUF %FMJWFSZ JO 0SCJU 4BMFT 28 3FHVMBUPSZ &OWJSPONFOU 2 'JOBODJBM .BSLFUT 4QBDF *OTVSBODF 1 4611-&.&/5"3: 26&45*0//"*3& 3&46-54 1 2014 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION FORECAST FOR NON- GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITS .....................................34 */530%6$5*0/ 4 46.."3: 4 /(40 1":-0"% ."3,&5 4&(.&/54 $PNNFSDJBM 5FMFDPNNVOJDBUJPO 4BUFMMJUFT $PNNFSDJBM 3FNPUF 4FOTJOH 4BUFMMJUFT 47 $PNNFSDJBM $BSHP BOE $SFX 5SBOTQPSUBUJPO 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/(40 1BZMPBE BOE -BVODI "DUJWJUJFT 84 5BCMF 2 .BTT $MBTTFT GPS (40 BOE /(40 1BZMPBET 85 5BCMF 4FDPOEBSZ /(40 1BZMPBET -BVODIFE $PNNFSDJBMMZ 88 LLL )HGHUDO$YLDWLRQ$GPLQLVWUDWLRQҋV2IÀFHRI&RPPHUFLDO6SDFH7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ List of Figures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