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Home , Kapil Muni Karwariya, Mehbooba Mufti, NISHAD Party, Nitish Kumar

INDIA AND SOUTH ASIA: MARCH 2018 DOSSIER

This month, the section on political developments in focuses on the dysfunctional parliamentary democracy, the shocking bye-election results in north India and the escalations in Kashmir perpetrated largely

by Pakistan. The developments include an economic component in the form of farmer protests in Maharashtra. On the foreign policy front, India-France and India-

German ties from the EU have gained salience with the visits of respective European leaders to India. The visit by the King of Jordan and the unfolding political crisis in

Sri Lanka are the other topics that are covered.

Dr Klaus Julian Voll FEPS FEPS Advisor on Asia STUDIES MARCH With Dr. Joyce Lobo 2018

Part I India - Domestic developments

• Standstill of parliamentary democracy?

• Political earthquake in North India?

• Current political developments

• Escalation with Pakistan and in Kashmir

• Impasse in Kashmir?

Part II India - Economic Developments

• Farmers March in Maharashtra

Part III India - Foreign Policy Developments

• India’s re-‘new’-found partner

• German President seeks further ties

• King of Jordan visits India

Part IV South Asia

• Cracks in the ruling alliance in Sri Lanka

2 Part I India - Domestic developments

Dr Klaus Voll does an exhaustive analysis of India’s political developments that have unfolded in March—a dysfunctional parliament, bye-elections in north India and the Pak-escalations creating an impasses in the Kashmir Valley.

Standstill of parliamentary democracy?

Indian democracy is currently in a bad shape. There is a complete breakdown of communication between the government and the opposition. The fronts are sharpening – also with regard to forthcoming elections – and assume increasingly forms of hatred.

In the current budget session of Parliament, predominantly characterised by tumultuous scenes and disruptions, 218 amendments have been pushed through in 30 minutes and the budget has been passed without any discussion.

Dinesh Trivedi, a truly reflecting MP of the Trinamool , a former railway and health minister, opines: „This is no democracy. The political democracy has come to a standstill.“

Jyotidirya Scindia, Congress-MP and a former minister, alleges, that the government does not want to discuss the scandal of the Punjab National Bank (PNB) and „therefore provides consciously no order in Parliament. The government has not called an all-party meeting nor conducted any informal discussions. Besides, there is no control any longer over parts of its allies, like the TDP and the AIADMK.“

The experienced journalist Mukhopadyay, author of a biography about , states: „The government does not believe in consultative processes.“

All this does not present a positive image of India's parliamentary democracy, particularly since fears, increasing lawlessness in the public sphere and a systematic penetration of institutions by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) are characterising a general climate, which resembles along with a systematic propaganda and personal cult around Modi authoritarian regimes.

The remaining critical and liberal intelligentsia seems to retreat increasingly and does not really systematically challenge the predominantly mediocre thinking of the proponents of the RSS and its affiliated organisations, not to speak of developing an alternative and an enlightened narrative.

Political earthquake in North India?

The Lok Sabha by-elections in three constituencies in and led to a big surprise. The BJP lost in each of them decisively: against the (SP), supported by the (BSP), in Uttar Pradesh and against the Rashtriya (RJD) in Bihar.

Cooperation between BSP and SP

3 Since 24 years, BSP and SP went very separate ways. Their relationship was of a highly adversary nature. But after their damaging defeats in 2014 at the national and particularly in 2017 at the state level, Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati decided on the eve of these by-elections to put up joint candidates, although the BSP traditionally does not put up candidates in by-elections.

Satish Mishra, by social background a Brahmin and since years the right-hand man of Mayawati, and Ram Gopal Yadav, an influential SP-strategist and uncle of Akhilesh, prepared the ground-work, which was also the result of pressure exercised by young on Mayawati.

BJP-defeats in three Lok Sabha constituencies

Even the SP and BSP leaderships did not really expect these outcomes. The SP won in the Saffron- bastion Gorakhpur (see the exact result in the annexure), seat of the influential religious Gorakhnath Mutt with its influence till Nepal, with a margin of nearly 22 000 votes. represented five times this constituency, since 1989 controlled by the BJP. There was a Swing against the BJP, so that in the end the SP won about 49% against 46.5% of the BJP, which had won in 2014 with 52.4%.

In Phulpur (see exact result in the annexure), constituency of the Deputy CM Keshab Prasad Mauriya, the BJP lost nearly 13% of its previous vote-share. The SP-candidate won by a margin of nearly 59 000 votes.

Although the Congress put up a candidate in both constituencies, the party, which had in 2009 sent 22 MP's from Uttar Pradesh to the Lok Sabha, is now a spent force there.

In Bihar, the (RJD) could maintain its constituency Araria with a clear margin of about 62 000 votes against the BJP, although CM did campaign intensively. This is remarkable, since the charismatic RJD-Supremo is in prison because of the so- called .

In by-elections to the State Assembly in Bihar, the RJD distanced clearly the JDU in Jehanabad and the BJP kept the Congress in Bhabua at bay.

The big losers

There is no doubt, that CM Yogi Adityanath is personally, besides his party, the big loser in UP and perhaps even beyond, since he is campaigning besides Modi all over the country, which could affect his good reputation as an effective vote-catcher.

The big loser in Bihar is certainly the 'turn-coat' Nitish Kumar. Sabha Naqvi, a good journalist on domestic politics, opines: „Nitish Kumar is finished. He burned his political capital on all sides. He is only a caricature of what he was and what he could have become.“

Conclusion Pawan Varma, spokesperson of the ruling Janata Dal United (JDU) in Bihar, stated, „that is

4 not at all invincible and Modi not infallible. The BJP emphasizes too much its victories and does not do sufficient introspection. If regional parties come together, then the challenge for the BJP becomes bigger. The lesson of these elections for the Congress is, that the party cannot put up candidates everywhere, but has to form alliances, otherwise it will indirectly help the BJP.“ The RSS-spokesperson Desh Ratan Negi described the results as „warning signal for the BJP.“

Will this coming together between the SP and BSP be repeated in 2019? Observers regard this as a sheer „survival instinct“ of parties, which are also short of cash. The BJP will try everything, also by pressure on Mayawati and her brother through the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), to avoid a coming together of SP and BSP. Otherwise, on a purely numerical basis, this could lead to serious set- backs for the BJP in the 2019 elections.

Will the 'Generation 2 of social justice politics', represented by Akhilesh Yadav, really succeed? It might be a very difficult path to this aim, also in view of a necessary understanding about seat adjustments.

Mamata Bannerjee tweeted after these results perhaps a little bit too early: „This is the beginning of the end“. But undoubtedly, these results in UP and Bihar will have repercussions all over India. It will be interesting to observe, which conclusions Narendra Modi and Amit Shah will draw, possibly with regard to a presidential campaign, where it is still advantage Modi, given his immense popularity.

Annexure:

Uttar Pradesh

BJP lost the Gorakhpur seat to the SP/Nishad Party

2018 2014 Gorakhpur Gorakhpur

Name & Party Votes polled Name & Party Votes polled

SP 456513 BJP 539127 (Pravin Kumar Nishad) (49.31%) (Yogi Adityanath) (51.80%)

BJP 434632 SP 226344 (Upendra Dutt Shukla) (46.95%) (Rajmati Nishad) (21.75%)

INC 18858 BSP 176412 (Dr. Surheeta Kareem) (2.04%) (Ram Bhual Nishad) (16.95%)

Total number of valid votes polled: 925730

5 In the Phulpur constituency, SP defeated BJP

2018 2014 Phulpur Phulpur Name & Party Votes polled Name & Party Votes polled SP 342922 BJP 503564 (Nagendra Pratap Singh Patel) (47.12%) (Keshav Prasad Maurya) (52.43%) BJP 283462 SP 195256 (Kaushalendra Singh Patel) (38.95%) (Dharam Raj Singh Patel) (20.33%) IND 48094 BSP 163710 (Atiq Ahmad) (6.60%) (Kapil Muni Karwariya) (17.05%)

Total number of valid votes polled: 727732

Bihar

In Bihar, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) won the Araria Lok Sabha constituency. Total number of valid votes polled: 10, 18,587. Other parties mentioned in the table are: Bharatiya (BJP, and Jan Adhikar Party (Loktantrik) or JDP(L).

2018 2014 Araria Araria Name & Party Votes polled Name & Party Votes polled RJD 5,09,334 RJD 4,07,978 () (50.00%) (Tasleem Uddin) (41.81%) BJP 4,47,546 BJP 2,61,474 (26.80%) (Pradeep Kumar Singh) (43.94%) (Pradeep Kumar Singh) JDP(L) 20,922 JD(U) 2,21,769 (Prince Victor) (2.05%) (Vinay Kumar Mandal) (22.73%)

In Bihar, the BJP won the Bhabua Assembly seat. Total number of valid votes polled: 1, 33,791.

2018 2015 Bhabua Bhabua Name & Party Votes polled Name & Party Votes polled BJP 64,413 BJP 50,768 (Rinki Rani Pandey) (48.14%) (Anand Bhushan (34.59%) Pandey) INC 49,547 JD(U) 43,024 (29.32%) (Shambhu Singh Patel) (37.03%) (Dr. Pramod Kumar Singh)

6 IND 3,690 BSP 29,983 (Dharmendra Singh) (2.76%) (Bharat Bind) (20.43%)

In Bihar the Jehanabad Assembly seat was won by RJD. Total number of valid votes polled: 1,38,066. Other parties were Janata Dal (United) or JD(U), Rashtriya Lok Samata Party or BLSP (as mentioned in the Election Commission of India reports) and (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation or CPI(ML)(L).

2018 2015 Jehanabad Jehanabad Name & Party Votes polled Name & Party Votes polled RJD 76,598 RJD 76,458 (Kumar Krishna Mohan (55.48%) (Mundrika Singh Yadav) (50.87%) alias Suday Yadav) JD(U) 41,255 BLSP 46,137 (30.69%) (Abhiram Sharma) (29.88%) (Praveen Kumar) CPI(ML)(L) 8,498 CPI(ML)(L) 6,716 (Kunti Devi) (6.16%) (Santosh Keshari) (4.47%)

In May 2014, the BJP won 282 Lok Sabha seats. In four years, the BJP is down to 271, losing the simple majority in the Lok Sabha minus its allies.

Current political developments Victories of Congress and BJD in by-elections

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress won in two Assembly by-elections against the BJP. It won with reduced margins of about 8 and 2 thousand votes, compared to its earlier victories there. Both sides made it a prestige duel between Jyotiraditya Scindia, Congress MP from the area, and BJP-Chief Minister Prithviraj Singh Chouhan.

Experts called it a 'semi final' for the upcoming Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh with its 75 million inhabitants and an area as big as Sweden. Scindia – one of the descendants of the principality of Gwalior – is a potential candidate for the CM-office, in case of a Congress victory in the otherwise notoriously faction-ridden party.

In Odisha, the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) of CM could win after 15 years a constituency with a big majority, which was held before by the Congress. The BJD sees this as a good omen for the coming Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in the state.

In Bihar, four Congress-members of the Legislative Council crossed over to the ruling Janata Dal United (JDU) and announced the further switching of sides by Congress-legislators.

TDP-Ministers resign from central government.

7

For several days, MP's of the (TDP) from Andhra Pradesh stalled both Houses of the Indian Parliament. They demanded a „special-category status“ for their state, which came into existence after the bifurcation from the old Andhra Pradesh, together with Telangana.

On the 9th of March 2018, both TDP ministers, amongst the one in charge of civil aviation, resigned from the Modi cabinet, after a 20 minutes long telephonic conversation between Modi and CM Chandrababu Naidu could not solve the issue. Finance minister Arun Jaitley had before ruled out a special status.

The TDP had not left the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) immediately, but then took the plunge. The TDP had earlier emphasized, that it would not like to damage the good personal relations between Naidu and Modi.

These developments have to be seen in view of the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections and the efforts, to form an alliance of regional parties with an equi-distrance vis-à-vis the BJP and the Congress. K. Chandrashekar Rao, CM of Telengana, and Mamata Bennerjee, CM of West Bengal, are the major behind a so-called „“.

Interestingly, Nitish Kumar, CM in Bihar at the helm of a JD/U/BJP coalition, also now demands a „special category status“ for his state.

All this, also the explicit criticism by the with regard to the coalition style of the BJP vis-à-vis its NDA-allies as well as the announcement of the , to fight elections on its own and not in alliance with the BJP in Maharashtra in future, are indicators of a possibly new orientation of political forces.

In this context, the surprising coming together of the old adversaries Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) with regard to supporting each others candidates at Lok Sabha by-elections in Uttar Pradesh in March has also to be seen.

Escalation with Pakistan and in Kashmir

January 2018 has been with 240 incidents the worst time with regard to cease-fire violations between Pakistan and India. In January 2017 there have been only 87 incidents. As one of the reasons given are the forthcoming elections in Pakistan.

After the recent terror attack by the Lashkar-e-Toiba on an army camp in Jammu with seven killed and several wounded, defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated after a visit to this camp on the 12th of February: „Pakistan will pay a price for this attack.“

Chief Minister pleaded shortly before the terror attack for talks with Pakistan. Anil Gupta, a former brigadier of the Indian army and a member of the BJP, opined, „when we now talk to Pakistan, then we succumb to its pressure. Besides there is the question, with whom to talk to. As long

8 als China supports Pakistan, the thinking of Pakistan's army leadership will not change.“

Syed Ata Hasnain, a former Lt. General and Core Commander in Kashmir, speaks about „a hybrid situation. We must be militarily strong, in order to bring Pakistan to the table. Mehbooba addresses herself to her clientele. In an election year, nobody is really in control in Pakistan. The window for talks between the National Security Advisors remains open.“

Siddiq Wahid, Centre for Policy Research and a former Vice Chancellor, Jammu University, speaks „about a bad atmosphere in J & K. An expression of this is a First Information Report against a responsible member of the army in a recent incident with three young stone pelters killed. The central government is not in favour of talks, instead one can observe attempts to start a war. The decisive question is, if we are ready for talks. Since more than a year this is not the case.“

Mosharraf Zaidi, a Pakistani journalist, refuted, that the increase in cease-fire violations would have anything to do with the forthcoming elections in Pakistan. „There is a consensus in Pakistan, to have better relations with India.“

Zaidi insinuated a constant articulation of aggression by the Indian Army Chief General Rawat. He demanded more talks between the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMO's).

There seems to be a certain perplexity as well within the Indian government and amongst security experts, dominated by former military men, with regard to the question, how India should behave in this situation. Natasha Jog, NDTV-Moderator, says: „We don't know, how we should deal with Pakistan.“

Syed Ata Hasnain opines, „the time has come, to escalate both vertically and horizontally and to answer with extreme punishment there, where we dominate.“

Ajai Shukla, a former Lt. Colonel of the Indian army in Kashmir and known for his unorthodox and moderate opinions, alleges, „that the aim of 'surgical strikes' failed miserably. Pakistan is escalating. We do not have the capability to punish through escalation. Which advantage do we achieve? None of both the sides wants to enter into war. India refused the talks, requested by Pakistan, between the DGMO's,“

The former Congress minister Manish Tewary called the escalation along the LoC as unprecedented. „I don't share the assumption, that a conventional war can be lead under nuclear conditions. The government conducts a policy of 'flip flops' vis-à-vis Pakistan.“

G. Parthasaraty, a former Indian High Commissioner in Islamabad and now with the Center for Policy Research, stated, „the escalation since 2016/17 started unilaterally by Pakistan. Talks should take place between the Vice-Chiefs of both arnies, since the DGMO's are only two stars generals.“

V.P. Malik, a former Army Chief, referred „to the great strengths of the Indian army. The Pakistani army is supported by well-trained terrorist groups. The political and social situation in J & K is characterized by underground and openly acting groups as well as deteriorating 'governance'. We

9 have a lot of 'soft targets', especially in our army camps, for which funds for a better security have been allocated, but years for its implementation pass by.“

Syed Ata Hasnain opines, „we can limit attacks on camps of our troops, but not stop them completely. Damage control is most important.- The conflict is of hybrid and military nature. The 'surgical strikes' have been thought as deterrence. We must impose economic, social and diplomatic costs on Pakistan.“

The most important question arises, how should India react to this Pakistani escalation. D. S. Hooda, till recently a high-ranking military in J&K and an excellent security analyst, expresses the critical opinion, „that the 'surgical strikes' did not achieve their aim. The violations of the cease-fire agreement and the attacks have increased. Although we have the capacities to escalate, we must think two steps ahead and consider the Pakistani reaction.

We require a consistent and long-term policy. Diplomacy is nearly dead. We are only left with a few options. We have to bring normalcy back to the Valley. The 'muscular' approach is wrong. Finally, the approach of the army for the welfare of the population must prevail.“

The Kashmir-question and the relationship with Pakistan, increasingly a 'clientele'-state of China, will determine for many years to come India's domestic and foreign policies, also under the 'Damocles- sword' of a war, which cannot be ruled out. The chances for political and diplomatic initiatives in the near future are extremely low.

Impasse in Kashmir?

Kashmir is back in focus after the escalation of the cease-fire violations and the never ending violence in the Valley itself.

The US Intelligence Agency warned about more Pakistani terror attacks in India. Besides, Pakistan would develop short-range nuclear capacities.

Dr. , National Conference, a former Chief Minister of J & K and Union Minister, opines: „We all are fed up with this cycle of violence. Enough blood has been shed. Let us think about peace. We cannot stop talking. There are friends on both sides. Is war the way ahead, a fifth war, a big war?“

With regard to the question, what should be done within Kashmir, Abdullah said, „we must start to trust the people, then we can solve many of the problems. We have to regard Kashmiris as our people.

The South of Kashmir is burning. We will never loose Kashmir, but we should work for a better understanding, also to establish better relations with the rest of the country. I am ready to talk with anybody, if this serves the purpose of peace. Some parties cry 'war, war'. Nobody will vote for people, who want to walk over the bodies of dead soldiers. The National Conference is not at all marginalised.“

10

Rajdeep Sardesai, India Today-moderator, opined, „that India requires a 'Peace and Reconciliation Committee'.“ (India Today, 13. 2. 2018) -

In a discussion with Hussain Haqqani, a former foreign- and security policy advisor of Pakistani Presidents and Prime Ministers and an Ambassador to the United States, Rajdeep Sardesai posed the question, why the hostilities are currently escalating. Haqqani emphasized, that India is from a Pakistani perception increasing the pressure. „The Jihadis are far more active in Afghanistan and in Kashmir. They want to show, that they are still a force to reckon with.

The professional Pakistani Army has become an ideological force with a paranoid view. They see themselves encircled and are of the opinion to recognize a big conspiracy.“

'Hardliners' believe, that they can bring Hafeez Saeed and Maulana Masood Azar into the so-called 'mainstream'. The military establishment regards them as tools and does not want a turn-around with regard to this question.“

Hussain Haqqani, whose new book is titled 'Reimagining Pakistan', sees „as the only way into the future a rejection of escalation and a so-called 'grand bargain' for the region from Afghanistan up to Kashmir, which only has a 5% intra-regional trade. Otherwise there is no way out and we have to live with the reality, which we have.“ (India Today, 14. 2. 2018)-

The Congress party criticises intensively the Pakistan- and Kashmir-policies of the Modi-government. Using old video-clips of speeches by Narendra Modi in 2013, Rahul Gandhi posed the following five questions:

1.Why do terrorists have explosives? 2.Who supports the terrorists? 3. Why is there no effective control of the infiltration? 4. Why is there no foreign policy on terror? 5. Why have the infiltrators not been stopped?

With regard to Kashmir and the relations with Pakistan, it looks like that there is currently no consensus possible amongst the big parties in India.

Part II India - Economic Developments

Dr. Klaus Voll analyses the farmer protests in Maharashtra and how this might become an General

11 election issue for 2019.

Farmers March in Maharashtra

Approximately 35 to 50 thousand farmers reached after a march of 180 kilometres on Monday the 12th of March the Vidhan Sabha (state Parliament) in Mumbai.

A day before, Poonam Mahajan, a minister in the BJP-led government, described the march a „communist conspiracy“, since most participants were waiving red flags with hammer and sickle. Subashini Ali, CPI/M-MP in the 1980's, conceded, that it was an action guided by the farmers wing of her party.

Irrespective of this, the population in Mumbai supported the protestors. Doctors cared for the wounds of the often bare-foot marchers. Volunteers of the Sikh-community, known for its social work (kar seva), provided drinking water.

The BJP-state government under Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis gave in to practically all the demands of the protestors, amongst them the transfer of land rights to farmers and the so-called 'tribal population' and a higher Minimum Support Price (MSP), e. g. 50% above the input costs.

This march is one amongst several country-wide farmer protests and is an expression of the so-called 'agrarian distress', so that the question arises, „if farmers are the most neglected class“, on whose back a tremendous amount of the „original accumulation is taking place. Since decades farmers are getting cheated.“

During the last years, a farmer suicide is taking place each half an hour, since 2013 about 12 000. Currently, farmers have to accept dumping prices for potatoes and tomatoes.

Prime Minister Naredra Modi promised a doubling of farmers incomes till 2022, but this seems to be unrealistic according to experts. Cooperative banks have after 'demonetisation' not sufficient capital, so that the farmers are forced, to indebt themselves with private money-lenders ('Mahajans' and 'Seths') with their exorbitant interest rates. In general, the writing off of loans ('loan waivers') is seen as a structurally inadequate means and as a last resort to overcome the agrarian crisis.

Experts insinuate, that the BJP is against binding MSP's, fearing it would hit the consumers. In general, the political class is lacking understanding of the rural conditions. „They show contempt for the wishes of farmers. One does not think ahead, like in the 1960's and 1970's.“

52% of rural households are indebted, although there are great differences for instance between Punjab and Maharashtra.

Direct money transfers by the authorities are nowadays far easier. Maharashtra faces a wash-out of its cotton harvest. Therefore, the former Congress Chief Minister, Prithviraj Chavan, demands insurances for such occasions and alleges, that the BJP is too much supporting the consumers and prefers „scamsters vis-à-vis farmers“.

12

Much will depend on the implementation of the assurances made by the government. The government ordered special trains, to bring the demonstrators back to Nasik, known for its excellent oranges. It seems, that the agrarian crisis will be an important topic in the upcoming general elections.

Part III India - Foreign Policy Developments

13 Dr. Joyce Lobo explores the re‘new’ed relations between India and France through the President Macron’s visit while President Steinmeier’s visit boosts economic ties between India and Germany. King Abdullah’s visit adds to the better relations that India has developed over the years with the Middle Eastern countries.

India’s re-‘new’-found partner

The events of March 9-12, 2018 have been significant in the history of India’s foreign policy, as it was able to carry forward its agenda along with France in terms of climate change, apart from celebrating 20 years of the strategic partnership. Two global aspects that the current foreign policy of India is concerned with is one, terrorism and second climate change.

With terrorism India has gained support around the globe, but short of adoption of the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT), which it had proposed in 1996. It has signed with France in January 2016 a Joint Statement on Terrorism. Both countries share the same ideas on terrorism, particularly on South Asia.

Both the states have maintained a high level of exchanges, involving comprehensive engagement. The Indo-France Strategic Partnership was signed in 1998. The current relations have focused on key areas of defence, maritime issues, space, security, and energy-related sectors. Issues that both countries jointly address are terrorism, climate change, sustainable growth and development, infrastructure, smart urbanization, S&T cooperation, and youth exchanges.

India has ties with the French since the latter colonised (since 1668) areas such as Puducherry, Karaikal, Yanam, Mahe and Chandernagore. Many from the NRIs in France hail from these former colonies.

Paris' support for India’s permanent membership to the Security Council and reforms of the United Nations adds more to the growing relations. Again it has supported India’s membership to the multilateral export control regimes like MTCR (Jun 2016), particularly the Wassenaar Arrangement (Dec 2017) and Australia Group (Jan 2018). It has promised to gain consensus on seeking acceptance for India into the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

India has found a strong partner in terms of issues, concerns and mutual interests in France. These along with the milestones, that are achieved by both the countries, makes C. Raja Mohan, one of the strategic experts in India, to call France as ‘India’s New Russia’ (The Indian Express, Mar. 09, 2018). He identifies potential areas, where Russia has been in partnership with India without diluting the importance of the former.

President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Narendra Modi held bilateral talks on March 10 and co-chaired the Founding Conference of the International Solar Alliance on March 11. The talks largely focused on defence, maritime security, Indian Ocean Region (IOR), space, people to people contacts and importantly on the sustainable development-climate change.

Indo-French partnership on climate change

India is the fourth largest emitter (6%) after China, USA, and European Union. It ratified the Paris Climate Agreement on October 02, 2016 and has submitted its commitments to reduce its carbon emission intensity, emissions per unit of GDP, by 33-35% from 2005 levels over 15 years. Therefore, it

14 plans to produce 40% of its installed electricity capacity by 2030 from non-fossil fuels. In this regard, both countries have concluded the Industrial Way Forward Agreement for the Implementation of six nuclear power reactor units at Jaitapur. The work at this site will begin at the end of 2018, which is to be the largest nuclear power plant in the world, with a total capacity of 9.6 GW.

International Solar Alliance (ISA): ISA is emerging as a facilitator of technology, financing, capacity building, training etc which has not charged any fees to enter. It is a treaty-based alliance of 121 countries since Dec. 06, 2017. These countries are largely situated in the tropical belt, containing the developing and poor countries. The only developed countries are UAE, Australia and France. Japan, USA, UK, China, Saudi Arabia and The Netherlands are prospective partners.

Prior to the ISA summit at on March 11, 60 countries had signed the ISA framework agreement and 33 countries had ratified the same.

On March 11, the Founding Conference of the International Solar Alliance Summit was held at New Delhi, which composed of plenary, technical sessions. The summit saw the participation of 23 ratified and 24 signatory countries; about 21 Heads of State and Heads of Government; 6 Vice Presidents and Deputy Prime Ministers; 19 Ministers as Heads of Delegation; 10 multilateral banks; and top representatives from UN agencies.

Technical discussions included solar priorities, low cost finance, scaling up of off-grid solar energy, women and energy, enhancing energy access in small islands states and on ISA as a catalyst for Sustainable Development Goals number 7.

The ISA has concerns such as funding, wherein the developing countries seek technology transfer and innovative financing. One of their tasks is to approach the multilateral banks to fund renewable energy projects worldwide. Second concern is that India, the brainchild behind the venture, is not a major manufacturer.

India made a commitment to extend nearly US$ 1.4 billion worth of lines of credit to cover 27 projects in 15 countries, which includes setting up of solar PV power plants, mini grid and off grid usage, irrigation, rural electrification, street lighting, solar power for urban infrastructure including for health, hospitals, colleges, schools, government establishments, low income families etc. India also announced, that it would focus on the development of solar technology for commercial use through its Solar Technology Mission.

Both countries have thus been able to cooperate closely in Africa through the ISA also. Both countries have had their first dialogue on Africa in June 2017. Today there is a consensus on implementing common projects in the African continent.

Defence and Maritime security

India decided to diversify its arms procurement in the early 1980s, beginning with France. Defence cooperation today includes regular discussions, training exercises in defence equipment and manufacturing. The armed forces of both the countries hold joint exercises—Varuna (naval), Shakti (army), and Garuda (air).

France is one of the countries, that are active in the Make in India initiative. An Agreement on

15 reciprocal logistics support between respective armies was signed.

The Rafale deal is in the implementation stage of acquisition of related agreements. The INS Kalvari, which is the first Scorpene submarine –a joint collaboration—has been commissioned. Both the defence research organisations—DRDO and SAFRAN are still in discussion on the combat aircraft engines.

Maritime security is largely concentrated in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Both countries believe in the need to secure the IOR, for which the Joint Strategic Vision of India-France Cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region was released. India has a coastline of 7,500 kms, more than 1380 islands and two million sq. km of an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). France possesses overseas territories like Mayotte, Réunion, French Southern and Antarctic Lands in the IOR. In the Pacific, it has Wallis and Futuna, French Polynesia and New Caledonia. It has 1.6 million of citizens and 9.1 million sq. km of EEZ in the Indo-Pacific.

Therefore, both share concerns like maritime traffic security and environmental challenges. The joint vision is to be action oriented with the possibilities of trilateral dialogues. The naval exercises, that began in 1983, are called Varuna and have continued till date with the next scheduled this year for enhancing interoperability. The naval ships of both countries will call at port for holding passage exercises, called PASSEX. The naval exercises will now be open to other strategic partner countries in the IOR. Also a MoU has been signed between the space institutions of both countries to jointly develop a maritime surveillance satellite system for data fusion for maritime domain awareness in the IOR.

Multifaceted Relations

Space: India and France have been involved for the last 50 years in space cooperation. The "India- France Joint Vision for Space Cooperation” was adopted to identify future areas of cooperation. The ongoing cooperation includes the third joint satellite mission – TRISHNA, meant for eco-system stress and water use monitoring and also making room for the French instrument on India’s OCEANSAT-3 satellite.

Cultural ties between peoples: People to people contacts figured in the discussions in a large way with a focus on youth. Agreements that were signed in this regard were in education, migration and mobility. There has been more than 69% growth of Indian tourists to France since 2014. The two countries set the target of one million Indian tourists in France and 335,000 French tourists in India by 2020.

Economic relations: The economic relations are better, if not significant. The bilateral trade stands at US$ 10.95 billion (April 2016 to March 2017). India has about 120 companies in France. There are about 1000 French companies in India, which are largely MSMEs, while the small companies are in the niche areas of the economy.

The cumulative investment of US$ 6.09 billion from April 2000 to October 2017 makes France the 9th largest foreign investor in India. The French Development Agency (FDA) has largely invested in places like Bengaluru, Nagpur and Kochi.

Railways: France has so far shown interest in high speed train projects. It has concluded the feasibility

16 study between Delhi and Chandigarh and moved to the technical discussions.

Other agreements that were signed were in the areas like narcotic substance, railways, environment, sustainable urban development, solar, nuclear, etc.

The partnership had so far relied on areas such as civil-nuclear, space and defence, however new components have shown convergence— maritime security, counter terrorism and renewable energy. Apart from seeming that France is becoming 'India’s Russia', there is more strength in calling it a new found partner re-‘new’ed partner.

German President seeks further ties

Indian and German ties have been on an upswing, given the fact that the former relies on the European Union (EU) leadership of Berlin and Paris. President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier, on a five days visit (March 22-26, 2018) to India, sought greater strategic and economic ties. Steinmeier met the President, Vice-President and held talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Though economic cooperation was one of the important components of the talks, both leaders engaged in discussion on terrorism, further strengthening of bilateral ties, regional issues etc. Many of the German businesses are located in Chennai, which Steinmeier visited.

Germany is the largest trading partner amongst the EU countries for India, quite ahead of France. India relies on German investment in areas such as infrastructure, renewable energy projects, skills development and water management. The Strategic Partnership of 2001 has continued to date in a robust manner. Like France, India and Germany have congruence of interests at the global and regional levels— UN issues, International Cyber Issues, Disarmament & Non-proliferation, Export Controls, East Asia, Eurasia, etc.

The bilateral trade between India and Germany has stood at US$18.76 billion (€15.3) in 2016-17. Indian exports have accounted for US$7.18 billion, while its imports from Germany are US$11.58 billion. Germany is India’s largest trading partner in Europe and the 6th largest trading partner in the world. India was ranked 24th in Germany’s global trade.

Indian investments in Germany have been over US$ 7 billion so far. Factors like access to innovation and technology have made Indian companies get attracted to investing in Germany. IT, automotive, pharma and biotech have received a chunk of Indian investments. Indian companies have started around 140 major investment projects in Germany since 2010. Out of this, IT, automotive, pharma and biotech have received the larger share of Indian investments. There are more than 200 Indian companies in Germany out of which about 80 Indian companies generated combined revenue of US$14 billion in 2016, according to the Bertelsmann Foundation, a Confederation of Indian Industry and Ernst and Young 2017 study reports. The study also states, that in 2016 the Indian IT industry accounted for 9% of the revenue share. Indian companies operating in Germany are Infosys, WIPRO, TCS, Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries, Sona Autocomp, Bharat Forge Limited, Ranbaxy, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Biocon, Hindustan National Glass, Mahindra etc.

Between 2000 to 2017, Germany has remained as the 7th largest foreign direct investor in India. German FDI in India in 2016 was to the tune of US$ 1.1 billion. Germany's total FDI in India from April 2000 until December 2017 amounted to US$ 10.71 billion. It has invested in transportation, electrical

17 equipment, metallurgical industries, services sectors, chemicals, construction activity, trading and automobiles. Some of the companies that have significantly entered into the Indian market are Volkswagen, BMW, ThyssenKrupp, Siemens, Daimler, Bosch, Bayer, BASF, SAP, Deutsche Bank, Metro, Lufthansa, Merck, Munich Re etc.

There are more than 1600 Indo-German collaborations and over 600 Indo-German Joint Ventures in operation. The Indian government has facilitated to make investments and business operations easy by setting up a Fast-Track System for German companies within the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP). The Make in India Mittelstand (MIIM) Programme, launched by the Embassy of India in September 2015, makes the entry of German Mittelstand enterprises (MSMEs) into India easy. So far 73 companies have made it to India through the MIIM.

King of Jordan visits India

King Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein from the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan visited India for talks with PM Narendra Modi on March 01, 2018. Ties have gained momentum since the 2015 visit by the King was followed by the transit visit during last month by Modi on his way to Palestine. During King Abdullah’s visit, the two sides discussed aspects of bilateral cooperation and regional issues.

Jordan has been largely a peaceful kingdom, which has so far not been drawn into any kind of conflicts with the existing neighbours. It has better ties with the Western countries and is also been relatively at peace with Israel. King Abdullah has been at the forefront against radicalism and extremism, which makes him a likable partner in countering terrorist activities with India.

India became the 4th largest trade partner of Jordan after Iraq, Saudi Arabia and China. The bilateral trade between both countries stands at US$ 1.35 billion (2016-17. Fertilisers and phosphates are largely imported from Jordan, giving it an edge over trade surplus since 2015-16. Indian investors are keen on Jordan’s free trade agreements with the USA (for textile exports).

During King Abdullah’s visit, the MoU in defence cooperation was signed to make provisions for implementing areas of cooperation like training, defence industry, counter-terrorism, military studies, cyber security, military medical services, peacekeeping etc. The second important MoU was for the long term supply of rock phosphate and fertilizer/NPK. The other agreements were in areas such as diplomatic cooperation, culture, manpower, health, medicine, a twin agreement between Agra and Petra municipalities, media, education, etc. All in all about 12 agreements were signed, as the King was accompanied by a huge business delegation.

Part IV South Asia

18 Dr. Joyce Lobo briefly looks into the unfolding political crisis in Sri Lanka post local elections.

Cracks in the ruling alliance in Sri Lanka

The Presidential election of January 2015 brought an end to the two terms of Mahinda Rajapaksa. The United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) of disparate parties/groups and political personalities in support of the presidential candidate Maithripala Sirisena (from the Sri Lanka Freedom Party or SLFP) was formed to do away with the exclusive executive form of government in Sri Lanka. Rajapaksa who had brought in the ‘Presidential’ type of government through the 18th Amendment in 2010 had to face the people’s verdict of returning to Parliamentary democracy.

However, the recently held February 10, 2018 local elections in Sri Lanka have indicated a clear victory to Mahinda Rajpaksa’s Sri Lanka People’s Front or Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), which won 231 out of the 340 seats. UNP won 34 seats while the rest was splintered amongst other groups. This result has brought in the first cracks within the UPFA, especially between Sirisena’s SLFP and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s UNP, who personally have been rivals in former times. Already, both parties contested separately for the local elections, wherein the SLFP had accused the UNP of hindering the reform process, mismanagement of the economy, and the ongoing corruption in the administration. The local elections have been signalled as a referendum on the national government’s performance. The Sirisena- Wickremesinghe government has two years to complete and has not delivered on some of the promises made, such as tackling corruption, countering abuse of power, reigning in of military powers etc.

However one needs to observe, that there have been caveats in the 2015 elections itself. One, Sirisena won 51.28% of the votes while the runner-up Rajapaksa won 47.58%; many of the alliance members within the Rajapaksa group had defected to the Sirisena camp. Maintaining an alliance like the UPFA becomes daunting. It consisted of former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and Wickremesinghe’s UNP, whose party has been a rival to the SLFP. Sirisena won the support of the island’s northern minority Tamils (accounting for 15% of the electorate), who have been disappointed over the delay of providing an amicable political solution with a substantive devolution of political powers. The second minority group to support Sirisena were the Muslims, who formed about 10% of the total population, especially when the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) defected to the Sirisena camp. The recent riots in Kandy against Muslims have dampened the present alliance. To add to this motley of alliance groups, the Jathika Hela Urumaya gave the UPFA required Sinhala Buddhist colour. So Sirisena basically has been heading an alliance of the ‘disparates’.

The end of March this year saw the reduction in terms of Wickremesinghe’s powers, due to the dismal results at the local elections. Sirisena has taken away the central bank, the policy- making National Operations Room, Ministry of Law and Order (after the riots in Kandy against Muslims in early March) and several other institutions from the premier’s control and transferred the same to the Finance Minister Mangala Samaraweera.

Moreover Wickremesinghe’s ruling party will face a no-confidence vote on April 4, which is predicted to be in his favour, as his party has 106 seats out of the 225 –member assembly. With the support of allies such as the Tamil National Alliance (16 seats), he is predicted to sail through. A group within SLFP is in favour of the motion. Only defections can now bring the downfall of Wickremesinghe.

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