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The Alliance Bandwagon? As Assam Gears up for the Assembly Elections in April, It Is Clear That It Is Going to Be a Fight to the End

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The Alliance Bandwagon? As Assam Gears up for the Assembly Elections in April, It Is Clear That It Is Going to Be a Fight to the End cover story WILL ASSAM JOIN THE ALLIANCE BANDwaGON? As Assam gears up for the Assembly elections in April, it is clear that it is going to be a fight to the end Nabarun Guha n a cold December other’s headquarters escalated. that this was a conspiracy hatched morning, Bharatiya Between the supporters of the by the Congress and also accused OJanata Party (BJP) two major political parties in the the government of twisting the workers gathered outside the State created chaos and brought law. Whatever the truth may be, residence of former minister and the city to a standstill for almost one thing is certain – come April, Congress MLA Nilamoni Sen four hours. The real twist came we are sure to witness the most Deka in Rajgarh. Deka’s careless later when it was reported that violent, bitter and complex battle comments on Prime Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, former for power in Assam. Narendra Modi and Union Congress minister who had joined Minister for Human Resources the BJP a few months earlier, had Battle among Equals Smriti Irani the previous day had given orders on the phone to Tarun Gogoi has completed created waves. Angry exchanges attack Rajiv Bhawan. However, three terms as Chief Minister and and threats of demolishing each Sarma and BJP have in turn stated is gearing up for a fourth. The last Blast from the past: Himanta Biswa Sarma seen here with Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi at the inauguration of an NRHM project when the former was State Health Minister 28 │ │ February 2016 decade has seen the weakening of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), once the most powerful opposition to the Congress in the State. The BJP which has never (until now) been a force to reckon with in Assam, won just 5 out of 126 seats in the last Assembly polls in 2011. The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) though has emerged as the second largest party in the State by winning 18 seats and making massive inroads into the minority vote bank of the Congress. However, much water has flown through the Brahmaputra in the last five years. Gogoi’s government has lost considerable support both within and outside A woman casts her vote inside a booth at a polling station in Majuli, a large the party. Himanta Biswa Sarma, river island in the Brahmaputra river, Jorhat district, Assam once Gogoi’s most trusted lieutenant, is now one of the main and political expert Adip Phukan an expired medicine called Modi leaders of the BJP. Add to this the says, ‘Political parties in Assam wave. Voters have become smart meteoric rise of the BJPwith 37% have actually lost the trust of the and this time, I think, they will of votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha people. No party is going to get an vote for candidates rather than elections, doubling their score in absolute majority in this election’. par t ies’. 2011. AIUDF led by perfume baron Youth leader Prodyut Bora Badruddin Ajmal has emerged as launched the Liberal Democratic To Tie-Up or not To? the dark horse in Assam politics. Party (LDP) after quitting BJP Ever since the troika of JDU, Results show that a large section last year and says that people RJD and Congress routed the BJP of Muslims who form 30% of the will vote looking at candidates in Bihar, the word alliance has electorate have switched their rather than parties. ‘All the three become the buzz word in politics. allegiance from the Congress to major parties, the Congress, BJP Among all the states going to AIUDF. and AIUDF are almost at par. the polls this year (Assam, Tamil In this scenario, it may be fair The Congress is corrupt, AIUDF Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry and to assume that this will be the is inclined to favour religious West Bengal), Assam is the election where no party will get an minorities and BJP is trying to only State where the BJP and absolute majority. Noted journalist come to power with the help of Congress will come face to face and the word alliance assumes great significance. Bihar Chief ‘We have always been against both the BJP and the Congress, Minister Nitish Kumar has taken but for the larger interests of the State and to keep communal the initiative to form an alliance forces like the BJP at bay, it is possible to form a grand alliance. comprising the Congress, AGP and Earlier, the Congress leadership proposed an alliance and anti AIUDF. He even met former Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta BJP national political parties also got in touch with us. But and AIUDF supremo Badruddin now the Congress has been making contradictory statements Ajmal in Delhi to discuss the and changing their stand almost every day. Some Cong leaders intricacies of an alliance. However, are acting as BJP agents’ as Assam is a complex web of Badruddin Ajmal, President, AIUDF ethnic, linguistic and political February 2016 │ │ 29 groups, the perception is that it will be difficult to bring parties with different ideologies together. Phukan said, ‘Alliances are going to be crucial in this poll. But right now, the scenario is muddled. There are three divisions among the AGP itself; there is one which wants an alliance with the Congress, another with the BJP and there is the third group which wants the party to go solo’. ‘The characteristics of AIUDF are similar to Congress. It is most likely that these two parties will go for an alliance but if they form a pre-poll alliance, it will result in the polarization of Hindu votes which will ultimately benefit the BJP,’ he added. The only alliance which is AGP’s Atul Bora at a press conference looking certain at this stage is between the BJP and the United Mohilary and BJP President Amit no need of an alliance for the People’s Front (UPF), a forum Shah at New Delhi. It was said that Congress. ‘Actually, BJP is not of nine tribal and indigenous Prime Minister Narendra Modi so strong here. Their ground organisations that will contest on his official visit to Kokrajhar strength is not very good. So, in 30 seats. Hagrama Mohilary, the would formally announce the this scenario, we are not going for chief of Bodoland People’s Front alliance and also an economic a pre-poll alliance with any party. (BPF), is the main force behind package for BTAD. However, Modi Frankly speaking, politics in the tribal forum. Interestingly, mentioned neither the alliance nor Assam is very different from that BPF, which has 10 seats in the the package in his speech, and this of Bihar. We don’t have parties current Assembly, was part of the has led some political pundits to here with whom an alliance can be Congress-led Assam government speculate about Mohilary’s future formed. We are confident that we between 2006 and 2014. Recently, course of action regarding the will get a majority by contesting the BPF has become stronger after grand alliance. There is also talk solo’. the Bodoland People’s Progressive about BJP joining hands with old An AIUDF MLA from Barpeta, Front (BPPF) led by erstwhile rival ally AGP, but nothing has been Abdur Rahim Khan, however, Rabiram Narzary, merged with it. confirmed as of now. states that they are not ruling out Recent reports also claimed Assam Pradesh Congress an alliance with the Congress. that the BJP-BPF alliance has Committee (APCC) President ‘We can never have an alliance been sealed in a meeting between Anjan Dutta feels that there is with the BJP. Ideologically, we are opposites. We have some ideological similarities with ‘I personally think that both the Congress and BJP have failed the Congress. We would have to fulfill their promises and thus meet the expectations of the preferred an anti-BJP alliance people. So, in this election, I will not vote for a particular party. comprising of all the parties. Rather, I will vote for the most suitable candidate, irrespective However, that plan has been hit as of his/her party’ the BPF is slated to form an alliance with the BJP. AGP’s stand is also Indrani Dhar, Age-42, Housewife, Lalganesh, Constituency- not clear. Though we are confident Guwahati (West) of doing much better than last 30 │ │ February 2016 time, we might not get an absolute well in Upper Assam in the last Joydeep Biswas, a lecturer of majority. In that case, we will have Lok Sabha elections, this time Cachar College opines that the to form the government with the the Congress is in a much better story is more or less the same in Congress after the election’. position. Tea tribes form a major the Barak Valley. ‘There is a wave AGP President Atul Borah chunk of voters here and they in favour of the BJP here. Hindu meanwhile stated that his party is might back the Congress this time. Bengali voters here are more looking to join hands with smaller A constituency like Margherita inclined to vote for them. Also, the regional parties, not with the has always been a Congress fact that Broad Gauge Railways bigger players. ‘The people of the bastion and the announcement by started after the Modi government State have been betrayed by both Tarun Gogoi of several packages came to power can earn brownie the Congress and BJP and so we for them has been a masterstroke. points for the BJP. But the don’t want an alliance with either In the past, even heavyweight BJP saffron party doesn’t have strong of them, or with the AIUDF.
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