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Home , Badruddin Ajmal, Gaurav Gogoi, Naharkatiya, Nitish Kumar, Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, Smriti Irani

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Will Join the Alliance Bandwagon? As Assam gears up for the Assembly elections in April, it is clear that it is going to be a fight to the end

Nabarun Guha

n a cold December other’s headquarters escalated. that this was a conspiracy hatched morning, Bharatiya Between the supporters of the by the Congress and also accused OJanata Party (BJP) two major political parties in the the government of twisting the workers gathered outside the State created chaos and brought law. Whatever the truth may be, residence of former minister and the city to a standstill for almost one thing is certain – come April, Congress MLA Nilamoni Sen four hours. The real twist came we are sure to witness the most Deka in Rajgarh. Deka’s careless later when it was reported that violent, bitter and complex battle comments on Prime Minister , former for power in Assam. and Union Congress minister who had joined Minister for Human Resources the BJP a few months earlier, had Battle among Equals Smriti Irani the previous day had given orders on the phone to has completed created waves. Angry exchanges attack Rajiv Bhawan. However, three terms as and and threats of demolishing each Sarma and BJP have in turn stated is gearing up for a fourth. The last

​Blast from the past: Himanta Biswa Sarma seen here with Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi ​at the inauguration of an NRHM project when the former was State Health Minister

28 │ │ February 2016 decade has seen the weakening of the (AGP), once the most powerful opposition to the Congress in the State. The BJP which has never (until now) been a force to reckon with in Assam, won just 5 out of 126 seats in the last Assembly polls in 2011. The All United Democratic Front (AIUDF) though has emerged as the second largest party in the State by winning 18 seats and making massive inroads into the minority vote bank of the Congress. However, much water has flown through the Brahmaputra in the last five years. Gogoi’s government has lost considerable support both within and outside A woman casts her vote inside a booth at a polling station in Majuli, a large the party. Himanta Biswa Sarma, river island in the , district, Assam once Gogoi’s most trusted lieutenant, is now one of the main and political expert Adip Phukan an expired medicine called Modi leaders of the BJP. Add to this the says, ‘Political parties in Assam wave. Voters have become smart meteoric rise of the BJPwith 37% have actually lost the trust of the and this time, I think, they will of votes in the 2014 people. No party is going to get an vote for candidates rather than elections, doubling their score in absolute majority in this election’. par t ies’. 2011. AIUDF led by perfume baron Youth leader Prodyut Bora has emerged as launched the Liberal Democratic To Tie-Up or not To? the dark horse in Assam politics. Party (LDP) after quitting BJP Ever since the troika of JDU, Results show that a large section last year and says that people RJD and Congress routed the BJP of Muslims who form 30% of the will vote looking at candidates in , the word alliance has electorate have switched their rather than parties. ‘All the three become the buzz word in politics. allegiance from the Congress to major parties, the Congress, BJP Among all the states going to AIUDF. and AIUDF are almost at par. the polls this year (Assam, Tamil In this scenario, it may be fair The Congress is corrupt, AIUDF Nadu, , Puducherry and to assume that this will be the is inclined to favour religious West Bengal), Assam is the election where no party will get an minorities and BJP is trying to only State where the BJP and absolute majority. Noted journalist come to power with the help of Congress will come face to face and the word alliance assumes great significance. Bihar Chief ‘We have always been against both the BJP and the Congress, Minister Nitish Kumar has taken but for the larger interests of the State and to keep communal the initiative to form an alliance forces like the BJP at bay, it is possible to form a grand alliance. comprising the Congress, AGP and Earlier, the Congress leadership proposed an alliance and anti AIUDF. He even met former Chief Minister BJP national political parties also got in touch with us. But and AIUDF supremo Badruddin now the Congress has been making contradictory statements Ajmal in to discuss the and changing their stand almost every day. Some Cong leaders intricacies of an alliance. However, are acting as BJP agents’ as Assam is a complex web of Badruddin Ajmal, President, AIUDF ethnic, linguistic and political

February 2016 │ │ 29 groups, the perception is that it will be difficult to bring parties with different ideologies together. Phukan said, ‘Alliances are going to be crucial in this poll. But right now, the scenario is muddled. There are three divisions among the AGP itself; there is one which wants an alliance with the Congress, another with the BJP and there is the third group which wants the party to go solo’. ‘The characteristics of AIUDF are similar to Congress. It is most likely that these two parties will go for an alliance but if they form a pre-poll alliance, it will result in the polarization of Hindu votes which will ultimately benefit the BJP,’ he added. The only alliance which is AGP’s Atul Bora at a press conference looking certain at this stage is between the BJP and the United Mohilary and BJP President Amit no need of an alliance for the People’s Front (UPF), a forum Shah at . It was said that Congress. ‘Actually, BJP is not of nine tribal and indigenous Prime Minister Narendra Modi so strong here. Their ground organisations that will contest on his official visit to Kokrajhar strength is not very good. So, in 30 seats. Hagrama Mohilary, the would formally announce the this scenario, we are not going for chief of Bodoland People’s Front alliance and also an economic a pre-poll alliance with any party. (BPF), is the main force behind package for BTAD. However, Modi Frankly speaking, politics in the tribal forum. Interestingly, mentioned neither the alliance nor Assam is very different from that BPF, which has 10 seats in the the package in his speech, and this of Bihar. We don’t have parties current Assembly, was part of the has led some political pundits to here with whom an alliance can be Congress-led Assam government speculate about Mohilary’s future formed. We are confident that we between 2006 and 2014. Recently, course of action regarding the will get a majority by contesting the BPF has become stronger after grand alliance. There is also talk solo’. the Bodoland People’s Progressive about BJP joining hands with old An AIUDF MLA from Barpeta, Front (BPPF) led by erstwhile rival ally AGP, but nothing has been Abdur Rahim Khan, however, Rabiram Narzary, merged with it. confirmed as of now. states that they are not ruling out Recent reports also claimed Assam Pradesh Congress an alliance with the Congress. that the BJP-BPF alliance has Committee (APCC) President ‘We can never have an alliance been sealed in a meeting between Anjan Dutta feels that there is with the BJP. Ideologically, we are opposites. We have some ideological similarities with ‘I personally think that both the Congress and BJP have failed the Congress. We would have to fulfill their promises and thus meet the expectations of the preferred an anti-BJP alliance people. So, in this election, I will not vote for a particular party. comprising of all the parties. Rather, I will vote for the most suitable candidate, irrespective However, that plan has been hit as of his/her party’ the BPF is slated to form an alliance with the BJP. AGP’s stand is also Indrani Dhar, Age-42, Housewife, Lalganesh, Constituency- not clear. Though we are confident (West) of doing much better than last

30 │ │ February 2016 time, we might not get an absolute well in Upper Assam in the last Joydeep Biswas, a lecturer of majority. In that case, we will have Lok Sabha elections, this time Cachar College opines that the to form the government with the the Congress is in a much better story is more or less the same in Congress after the election’. position. Tea tribes form a major the . ‘There is a wave AGP President Atul Borah chunk of voters here and they in favour of the BJP here. Hindu meanwhile stated that his party is might back the Congress this time. Bengali voters here are more looking to join hands with smaller A constituency like Margherita inclined to vote for them. Also, the regional parties, not with the has always been a Congress fact that Broad Gauge Railways bigger players. ‘The people of the bastion and the announcement by started after the Modi government State have been betrayed by both Tarun Gogoi of several packages came to power can earn brownie the Congress and BJP and so we for them has been a masterstroke. points for the BJP. But the don’t want an alliance with either In the past, even heavyweight BJP saffron party doesn’t have strong of them, or with the AIUDF. leaders like Kamakhya Prasad candidates – there’s quantity Tasa couldn’t win here. BJP will but no quality. Hailakandi Ground Reality win in seats like where and Karimganj are minority Even though a clear picture they have a strong candidate dominated districts where the will emerge only after the like Prasanta Phukan but the Congress is traditionally strong announcement of the candidates, Congress will retain most of their with the presence of heavyweight the general feeling is that the strongholds like Digboi, leaders like Gautam Roy, Siddique Congress holds a slight edge over and Naharkatiya. In districts like Ahmed and Kamalakhya Dey the BJP at many places. Robin Jorhat and also, the Purkayastha. BJP had a good Gogoi from Margherita says, ‘Even Congress has stronger candidates chance in Cachar but there is though the BJP did exceptionally than the BJP’. tremendous infighting among

Rajya Sabha Member Sachin Tendulkar meeting Union Minister for Youth Affairs and Sports in New Delhi in 2014

February 2016 │ │ 31 the leaders in the district which doesn’t augur well for the party’. ‘It is unfortunate that none of the parties are really concerned for the people in general and indulge in petty politics. Rather Politics of Outsourcing than supporting a particular party, I will vote for the best If one has to choose an candidate in my constituency, irrespective of the party he/ epoch making moment from she will be from. I personally think that this will be the most the recent political history of Assam, it surely has to be former open elections ever in Assam’ Health and Education Minister Saifuddin Haque, Age- 22, Student,Bajali College, Barpeta, Himanta Biswa Sarma joining Constituency- Patacharkuchi the BJP. Sarma is known for being articulate and witty and has a connect with the masses which year amid much fanfare. Later, the fed up with their corruption. The few leaders in the State can match. ‘dissident’ MLAs close to Sarma notion that the BJP could become He was once the blue-eyed boy of like Pijush Hazarika, Jayanta an alternative to the Congress in Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi but for Malla Baruah, Abu Taher Bepari, the State has been hit with the the last few years, they have been Pradan Baruah, Rajen Borthakur, inclusion of these people. I don’t at loggerheads. Things reached a Bolin Chetia, Pallab Lochan Das, think these leaders will actually tipping point in 2014 when Sarma Kripanath Malla and Binanda be able to help BJP much in the marched to Raj Bhawan with his Saikia joined the BJP. elec t ion’. close aides demanding the CM’s Commenting on this Prodyut Bora, former national dismissal. Soon after, he resigned development, noted journalist executive member of BJP who from the cabinet. and former spokesperson of has now formed his own Liberal It was known then that it Manoram Democratic Party (LDP) after would be just a matter of time Gogoi says, ‘In the last Lok Sabha quitting the BJP last year is more before the Jalukbari MP joined the elections, people had voted against forthright. ‘Did you ever hear BJP and it happened in August last the Congress because they were in the past that BJP resorted to

A delegation of AIUDF led by the Lok Sabha MP and President of AIUDF, Badruddin Ajmal calls on the Vice President, Mohd. Hamid Ansari, in New Delhi on Oct. 31, 2014

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Delivered at your door-step People throng a polling booth in Kaliabor in the 2014 elections. The Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi’s son is a Lok Sabha MP from the constituency in Nagaon district of Assam

hooliganism in Assam? Such by the ideology of regionalism incidents were mainly attributed have also donned the saffron garb, to Youth Congress. But now as including former AGP leaders these Congress leaders have Chandra Mohan Patowary, Atul joined the BJP, they have brought Borah (Sr) and Padma Hazarika, these dirty trends along with former Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuva them as well which is evident Chatra Parishad President Manoj from the Rajiv Bhawan incident. Baruah and former All Assam This is an alien culture which has Students Union (AASU) President been incorporated in BJP and the Tapan Kumar Gogoi and General party will have to pay heavily for Secretary Shankar Prasad Roy. it’, he says. BJP Spokesperson Bijan But Congress leaders are not Mahajan, however, refutes the the only ones who have joined the claim that these leaders joining the BJP of late. Many leaders fuelled BJP will harm the party. ‘The BJP is like a sea and the other parties are like rivers. Whoever has joined ‘There is no question of either entering into any seat-sharing the BJP has done so influenced by arrangement or even having an understanding with any other its ideology more than anything party. Earlier, I have spoken about aligning with non-BJP else. So, there is no question of the party being harmed by their parties, but now we are going solo. Parties like the AIUDF and inclusion,’ he says. BJP have a secret understanding, as both have the same goal of The Congress is also trying to polarising voters’ fill up the void created by these Tarun Gogoi, Current Chief Minister nine MLAs. They have inducted former AGP leader Joinath Sarma

34 │ │ February 2016 in the party. Sarma will be given the ticket from Sipajhar where ‘This is a very exciting beginning for all of us, particularly Binanda Saikia had won in the the people of Assam who are very hopeful that the BPF- past. Post Saikia joining the BJP, BJP alliance will form the government. This alliance has the Congress is now expecting the strengthened our already healthy chances of forming a veteran leader to counter him. A BJP government in Assam in 2016’ local resident from Sipajhar who wishes not to be named, says, Sarbananda Sonowal, Union Minister for Sports and ‘Sarma had a vote bank of around Youth Welfare and State BJP President 30-40,000 voters in Sipajhar who are staunch believers in the regional ideology. They have government. ‘Our government government has been completely always maintained an anti- has always worked for the poor disconnected from the masses. It is Congress stand and it is unlikely and marginalized section of the a corrupt government and people that they will now vote for the society. In the last one and half have lost their faith in it. On the Congress’. decade, infrastructure of the State other hand, our government has developed rapidly. There in the Centre has no place for Along Party Lines have been so many schemes for corruption and people have seen The big question is how the students, peasants, tea garden our performance. Voters have also votes will be shared. All the major workers etc. People want stability become very smart now. They parties are expecting favours from in the State and so they will bring know that if the government in voters for different reasons. APCC us to power again’. the State and the Centre is formed President Anjan Dutta feels that BJP on the other hand, claims by the same party, then the State people will vote for the Congress that people will bring them to is benefitted in the long run,’ says because of the developmental power because they are fed up Pranab Saikia, Convenor of Media work undertaken by Tarun Gogoi’s with the Congress. ‘Tarun Gogoi’s Cell, BJP. Mahajan adds, ‘I have to Himanta Biswa Sarma at his residence interact with numerous people throughout the day and from that experience, I can tell you that Mission 84 is looking very much possible. Chances are that we will get even more than 84 seats’. AIUDF and AGP are trying to cash in from the clash between the Congress and BJP. Atul Borah says, ‘Assam had never seen such cheap behaviour from politicians in the past and the way some leaders of the Congress and BJP are behaving is not acceptable. People are fed up with such behavior and will want to repose their faith once again on regional forces’.

Smaller Players In the , the lion’s share of the pie is taken by major political parties and the smaller parties are nothing more than supporting players.

February 2016 │ │ 35 400.00%

350.00%

300.00% INC 250.00% BJP 200.00% AIUDF 150.00% AGP

100.00% BPF Others/Ind 50.00%

0.00% Assembly Lok Sabha Election, 2011 Election, 2014 (vote share) (vote share)

The Left parties failed to get any Prodyut Bora’s newly floated outcome of the 2016 Assembly seat in the Assembly elections Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) polls. Most of the parties are last time despite contesting in 48 will contest 30 seats. Bora said, expected to announce their seats and it is unlikely that their ‘Right now, we are not venturing candidates from the end of this performance will be any better into Barak Valley. We have also month. Till now, the BJP has this time. Trinamool Congress has decided to fight independently. announced names of candidates one MLA - Dwipen Pathak of Hajo LDP would be liberal in terms in 43 constituencies. A list of AGP but he is more a figurehead. Aam of both social and economic candidates in 38 constituencies Aadmi Party has withdrawn from agenda, promoting business have also come out though the the political battle in Assam – they and entrepreneurship as well party has claimed that the list is will contest only in Punjab. Akhil as personal freedom. We will not final. So, a clearer picture will Gogoi’s Gana Mukti Sangram promote social inclusion and emerge when all the parties reveal Samiti might not contest polls welfare. We expect that our their cards. but if they support a party from ideology will strike a chord with This is going to be the hardest outside, that will be crucial as the people’. fought election in the history of they enjoy huge support among the State. All speculations and the farmers. In Retrospect calculations made by pundits It is interesting to note that It is premature to predict the might get tossed through the window. Will Tarun Gogoi get ‘I think that in any election, we should vote for change. fourth time lucky or Sonowal Tarun Gogoi’s government has ruled for 15 years and if initiate a gerua reign in the this government comes to power again this time, it will be State? Will Ajmal emerge as the kingmaker or the king, or will regressive for Assam. However, even BJP is not looking to be AGP get back their lost aura? One a good alternative for the Congress especially after all those thing can be safely predicted: with dissident Congress leaders joined them. I am yet to decide continually shifting dynamics, we which party to support. Maybe NOTA will be the best option can expect the unexpected! this year’ Dipankar Baishya, Age-47, Businessman, Ulubari, Constituency-Guwahati East Photos Courtesy: Nabarun Guha

36 │ │ February 2016