The New Canada Presented By: Dr

The New Canada Presented by: Dr. Darrell Bricker

• The “Great White North” • English and French—very white • More Rural—focus on natural resources • Big families, big households, what the kids want • Values Of Elite Accommodation— driven by white men in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa • Eyes on the Atlantic, fear of the US. • Trusting Of Public Authorities And Institutions — (Peace, Order and Good Government)

Fertility/Aging

Urbanization

Multiculturalism

MALE FEMALE

2011 2011

1961 1961

Fertility Rate, Canada: 1921 – 2011 (average number of children a woman aged 15 to 49 would have in her lifetime)

2011 Total Fertility Rate

Canada 1.61

Saskatchewan 1.99

Manitoba 1.86

Alberta 1.81

Quebec 1.69

Prince Edward Island 1.62

New Brunswick 1.54

Ontario 1.52

Nova Scotia 1.47

Newfoundland/Labrador 1.45

British Columbia 1.42

WORLD CANADA

1960 = 4.9 1960 = 3.9 Today = 2.5 Today = 1.6 2050 = 2.3 2050 = 1.7

United Nations Population Estimates

China 5.80 1.7

India 5.90 2.5

US 3.70 1.9

Indonesia 5.70 2.5

Brazil 6.20 Avg. 1960 1.8 5.2

Pakistan 6.60 3.7 2.5 Avg. Today Nigeria 6.40 5.7

Bangladesh 6.70 2.2

Russia 2.50 1.7

Japan 2.00 1.4

1920's 57

Now 81

2036 87

14.4 2011 CAN 23.7 15.8 2036 NL 31.0 15.8 PE 27.4 16.5 NS 28.6 16.2 NB 29.4 15.7 QC 25.1 14.2 ON 23.1 13.9 MB 21.4 14.6 SK 23.3 10.8 AB 21.0 15.3 BC 23.8

1971 In 1971 there were 6.6 PER 6.6 people of working age for each senior

2012 4.2 PER In 2012 there are 4.2

2036 PER Projections put the 2.3 ratio at 2 to 1 in 2036

By Age of Family Head, 2011 (dollars) $600,000 $533,600 $500,000 $460,700

$400,000 $378,300

$300,000 $243,800 $200,000 $182,500

$100,000 $25,300 $0 All Families Under 35 years 35-44 years 45 - 54 years 55-65 years 65+ years

66 54 34

1960 Today 2050

% of the World’s population living in urban areas

Rural Population in Canada Urban Population in Canada 100 90 81 80 70 60 50 40

POPULATION 30 19 20

% OF TOTALCANADIAN 10 0

YEAR

Note: The rural population for 1981 to 2006 refers to persons living outside centres with a population of 1,000 AND outside areas with 400 persons per square kilometre. Previous to 1981, the definitions differed slightly but consistently referred to populations outside centres of 1,000 population. Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1851 to 2006. Last modified:

10.4% Atlantic 6.6%

28.9% Quebec 23.3%

34.3% Ontario 38.4%

17.5% Prairies 18.4%

9.0%  1961 BC 13.3%  2016

Canada 5.00

Alberta 11.60

Saskatchewan 6.30

Manitoba 5.80

BC 5.60

Ontario 4.60

Quebec 3.30

PEI 1.90

Newfoundland/Labrador 1.00

Nova Scotia 0.20

New BrunswickNew Brunswick- 0.50 -0.5

Calgary 14.6%

Vancouver 6.5%

Toronto 6.2%

Ottawa/Gatineau 5.5%

Montreal 4.2%

 Halifax 3.3% 2011 - 2016

Calgary 14.6%

Edmonton 13.9%

Saskatoon 12.5%

Regina 11.8%

Lethbridge 10.8%

Kelowna 8.4%

Guelph 7.7%

Victoria 6.7%

Oshawa 6.6%

Winnipeg 6.6%  2011 - 2016

Saint John -2.2%

Thunder Bay 0.0%

Greater Sudbury 1.0%

Kingston 1.0%

Saguenay 1.5%

Belleville 1.8%

Peterborough 2.3%

Trois-Rivières 2.8%

Windsor 3.1%

Halifax 3.3%  2011 - 2016

CANADA’S SECRET WEAPON

Canada Leads the Pack 1.0%

United States 0.8%

UK 0.7%

Italy 0.6%

Russia 0.5%

France 0.4%

Germany 0.1%

Japan -0.1%

 2011 - 2016

EMPHASIS ON ECONOMIC IMMIGRANTS

1986 2015 99,354 271,845

Economic Immigrants 36% Family Economic Family Class Immigrants Class 24% 63% 42% Refugees 19%

Other Immigrants 2% Refugees 13%

1970 NOW U.K. 26,497 Philippines 50,846

U.S. 24,424 India 39,530

West Indies 12,456 China 19,532 (Caribbean) Italy 8,533 Iran 11,669

Portugal 7,902 Pakistan 11,329

Greece 6,327 Syria 9,853

Yugoslavia 5,672 USA 7,522

India 5,670 France 5,807

China 5,377 UK 5,946

France 4,410 Nigeria 4,133

(percent)

Canada 20.6

ON 28.5

BC 27.6

AB 16.1

MB 15.7

QC 12.6

SK 6.8

NS 5.3

PE 5.2

NB 3.9

NL 1.8

POPULATION LIVING IN A LARGE URBAN AREA – 2011 (percent) 91

69.1

Immigrants Total Canadian Population

49.7% 39.6% 36.5% 34.7% 31.7% 28.9% 27.9%

20.6% 19.9%

United States 34% United Kingdom 22% Canada 20% Australia 20% Switzerland 16% Germany 15% France 13% New Zealand 12% Italy 11% Spain 9% Singapore 9% Japan 8% Sweden 8% United Arab Emirates 7% Netherlands 7% Norway 7% Mentions smaller than 5% are not shown. Austria 6% FL3. Still assuming you had a full-time job opportunity abroad, which Hong Kong 6% country would you most want to relocate to? Brazil 5% Base: All Employed Respondents: n= 12827 Ireland 5%

2017 – Strongly agree/ tend to agree 2016 – Strongly agree/ tend to agree Turkey 77% 74% Italy 63% 63% Russia 57% 60% Belgium 56% 55% Hungary 54% 56% South Africa 52% 49% France 49% 54% India 49% 52% Spain 46% 41% United States 46% 52% Argentina 46% 43% Germany 45% 44% Australia 45% 49% Sweden 44% 41% Great Britain 43% 47% Serbia 42% Poland 41% 43% Canada 40% 44% Saudi Arabia 38% 38% New Zealand 38% Peru 34% Mexico 32% 30% Japan 27% 24% South Korea 24% 30% Brazil 23% 23% “Immigration is causing my country to change in ways that I don’t like”.

© 2018 Ipsos 37 T Total 55% 35% Q16 Perceptions - 1 Turkey 83% 13% Society 2 Italy 70% 22% 3 India 69% 25% 4 Russia 69% 20% 5 S Africa 69% 25% 6 Belgium 66% 24% 7 France 66% 24% 8 Germany 59% 33% 9 U.S. 59% 31% There are too many immigrants in 10 Indonesia 58% 33% my country 11 GB 56% 35% 12 Sweden 55% 39% 13 Mexico 53% 40% 14 Argentina 52% 38% 15 Spain 52% 37% 16 Peru 51% 41% 17 Australia 47% 41% 18 Canada 46% 43% 19 Brazil 41% 46% KEY: 20 S Korea 40% 51% Agree 2016 Disagree 2016 21 Poland 36% 46% 22 Japan 19% 58% Agree 2014 Disagree 2014

Base: 17,180 adults across 22 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016

• Urban-Suburban • Multicultural • Older, More Female • Smaller households • Increasing Generational Divide • Eyes on the Pacific • Tolerant, Opinionated, Demanding, Difficult • “We The North”

• Growth GTA to the West.

• Suburban growth, rural/small town contraction.

• Redefining work and retirement.

• Living longer and healthier.

• Growing share of “well-derly.” Emerging economic, political force.

• More, smaller households. Smaller share of kids.

• Younger generations – crushing debt, crushed dreams.

• Single women at both ends of age scale. The “She-conomy.” Emerging economic, political force.

• Pacific identity.

• New global, mobile, middle class. What do you have for them?