The New Canada Presented by: Dr. Darrell Bricker © 2018 Darrell Bricker. All rights reserved. Contains Proprietary information and insights may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of the presenter. © 2018 Ipsos We Don’t Know Our Own Country Anymore © 2018 Ipsos 2 The Forces of Change Are Creating a New Canada © 2018 Ipsos 3 The Old Canada • The “Great White North” • English and French—very white • More Rural—focus on natural resources • Big families, big households, what the kids want • Values Of Elite Accommodation— driven by white men in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa • Eyes on the Atlantic, fear of the US. • Trusting Of Public Authorities And Institutions — (Peace, Order and Good Government) © 2018 Ipsos 4 POPULATION PATTERNS © 2018 Ipsos 5 EMERGING DEMOGRAPHIC FORCES Fertility/Aging Urbanization Multiculturalism © 2018 Ipsos 6 FERTILITY © 2018 Ipsos 7 Historical Age Pyramid for Canada MALE FEMALE 2011 2011 1961 1961 © 2018 Ipsos 8 THE FERTILITY RATE DROP Fertility Rate, Canada: 1921 – 2011 (average number of children a woman aged 15 to 49 would have in her lifetime) © 2018 Ipsos 9 DECLINE EVERYWHERE 2011 Total Fertility Rate Canada 1.61 Saskatchewan 1.99 Manitoba 1.86 Alberta 1.81 Quebec 1.69 Prince Edward Island 1.62 New Brunswick 1.54 Ontario 1.52 Nova Scotia 1.47 Newfoundland/Labrador 1.45 British Columbia 1.42 © 2018 Ipsos 10 WORLD VS CANADA: FERTILITY RATES WORLD CANADA 1960 = 4.9 1960 = 3.9 Today = 2.5 Today = 1.6 2050 = 2.3 2050 = 1.7 United Nations Population Estimates © 2018 Ipsos 11 FERTILITY IN 10 BIGGEST COUNTRIES CUT BY HALF IN LAST HALF CENTURY China 5.80 1.7 India 5.90 2.5 US 3.70 1.9 Indonesia 5.70 2.5 Brazil 6.20 Avg. 1960 1.8 5.2 Pakistan 6.60 3.7 2.5 Avg. Today Nigeria 6.40 5.7 Bangladesh 6.70 2.2 Russia 2.50 1.7 Japan 2.00 1.4 © 2018 Ipsos 12 AGING © 2018 Ipsos 13 AVERAGE LIFESPAN OF CANADIANS 1920's 57 Now 81 2036 87 © 2018 Ipsos 14 POPULATION 65 YEARS AND OVER, BY REGION 2011 AND PROJECTED 2036 (PERCENT) 14.4 2011 CAN 23.7 15.8 2036 NL 31.0 15.8 PE 27.4 16.5 NS 28.6 16.2 NB 29.4 15.7 QC 25.1 14.2 ON 23.1 13.9 MB 21.4 14.6 SK 23.3 10.8 AB 21.0 15.3 BC 23.8 © 2018 Ipsos 15 More Seniors Than Kids… © 2018 Ipsos 16 Number of Canadians Aged 100+ 7,900 By 2061 this will climb to 78,300 —the size of Victoria, B.C. © 2018 Ipsos 17 WORKING AGE AND DEPENDENCY FOR CANADA 1971 In 1971 there were 6.6 PER 6.6 people of working age for each senior 2012 4.2 PER In 2012 there are 4.2 2036 PER Projections put the 2.3 ratio at 2 to 1 in 2036 © 2018 Ipsos 18 MEDIAN NET WORTH OF CANADIAN FAMILIES By Age of Family Head, 2011 (dollars) $600,000 $533,600 $500,000 $460,700 $400,000 $378,300 $300,000 $243,800 $200,000 $182,500 $100,000 $25,300 $0 All Families Under 35 years 35-44 years 45 - 54 years 55-65 years 65+ years © 2018 Ipsos 19 URBANIZATION © 2018 Ipsos 20 OVER HALF OF WORLD LIVES IN URBAN AREAS 66 54 34 1960 Today 2050 % of the World’s population living in urban areas © 2018 Ipsos 21 RURAL VS. URBAN POPULATION IN CANADA: 1851-2011 Rural Population in Canada Urban Population in Canada 100 90 81 80 70 60 50 40 POPULATION 30 19 20 % OF TOTALCANADIAN 10 0 YEAR Note: The rural population for 1981 to 2006 refers to persons living outside centres with a population of 1,000 AND outside areas with 400 persons per square kilometre. Previous to 1981, the definitions differed slightly but consistently referred to populations outside centres of 1,000 population. Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1851 to 2006. Last modified: © 2018 Ipsos 22 THE BIG SHIFT: SHARE OF POPULATION BY REGION 10.4% Atlantic 6.6% 28.9% Quebec 23.3% 34.3% Ontario 38.4% 17.5% Prairies 18.4% 9.0% 1961 BC 13.3% 2016 © 2018 Ipsos 23 THE BIG SHIFT CONTINUES: POPULATION GROWTH 2011-2016 Canada 5.00 Alberta 11.60 Saskatchewan 6.30 Manitoba 5.80 BC 5.60 Ontario 4.60 Quebec 3.30 PEI 1.90 Newfoundland/Labrador 1.00 Nova Scotia 0.20 New BrunswickNew Brunswick- 0.50 -0.5 © 2018 Ipsos 24 POPULATION GROWTH FOR MAJOR CITIES Calgary 14.6% Vancouver 6.5% Toronto 6.2% Ottawa/Gatineau 5.5% Montreal 4.2% Halifax 3.3% 2011 - 2016 © 2018 Ipsos 25 TEN FASTEST GROWING METROPOLITAN AREAS Calgary 14.6% Edmonton 13.9% Saskatoon 12.5% Regina 11.8% Lethbridge 10.8% Kelowna 8.4% Guelph 7.7% Victoria 6.7% Oshawa 6.6% Winnipeg 6.6% 2011 - 2016 © 2018 Ipsos 26 TEN SLOWEST GROWING METROPOLITAN AREAS Saint John -2.2% Thunder Bay 0.0% Greater Sudbury 1.0% Kingston 1.0% Saguenay 1.5% Belleville 1.8% Peterborough 2.3% Trois-Rivières 2.8% Windsor 3.1% Halifax 3.3% 2011 - 2016 © 2018 Ipsos 27 IMMIGRATION: CANADA’S SECRET WEAPON © 2018 Ipsos 28 AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH FOR THE G8 Canada Leads the Pack 1.0% United States 0.8% UK 0.7% Italy 0.6% Russia 0.5% France 0.4% Germany 0.1% Japan -0.1% 2011 - 2016 © 2018 Ipsos 29 CHANGE IN IMMIGRATION ENTRY CLASSIFICATION EMPHASIS ON ECONOMIC IMMIGRANTS 1986 2015 99,354 271,845 Economic Immigrants 36% Family Economic Family Class Immigrants Class 24% 63% 42% Refugees 19% Other Immigrants 2% Refugees 13% © 2018 Ipsos 30 TOP 10 COUNTRIES OF BIRTH OF RECENT IMMIGRANTS TO CANADA 1970 NOW U.K. 26,497 Philippines 50,846 U.S. 24,424 India 39,530 West Indies 12,456 China 19,532 (Caribbean) Italy 8,533 Iran 11,669 Portugal 7,902 Pakistan 11,329 Greece 6,327 Syria 9,853 Yugoslavia 5,672 USA 7,522 India 5,670 France 5,807 China 5,377 UK 5,946 France 4,410 Nigeria 4,133 © 2018 Ipsos 31 FOREIGN BORN POPULATION BY REGION 2011 (percent) Canada 20.6 ON 28.5 BC 27.6 AB 16.1 MB 15.7 QC 12.6 SK 6.8 NS 5.3 PE 5.2 NB 3.9 NL 1.8 © 2018 Ipsos 32 9 OF 10 IMMIGRANTS LIVE IN URBAN CANADA POPULATION LIVING IN A LARGE URBAN AREA – 2011 (percent) 91 69.1 Immigrants Total Canadian Population © 2018 Ipsos 33 FOREIGN BORN – AS A % OF CITY POPULATION 49.7% 39.6% 36.5% 34.7% 31.7% 28.9% 27.9% 20.6% 19.9% © 2018 Ipsos 34 Will This Change? © 2018 Ipsos 35 Top Countries for Relocation: Canada Near the Top… United States 34% United Kingdom 22% Canada 20% Australia 20% Switzerland 16% Germany 15% France 13% New Zealand 12% Italy 11% Spain 9% Singapore 9% Japan 8% Sweden 8% United Arab Emirates 7% Netherlands 7% Norway 7% Mentions smaller than 5% are not shown. Austria 6% FL3. Still assuming you had a full-time job opportunity abroad, which Hong Kong 6% country would you most want to relocate to? Brazil 5% Base: All Employed Respondents: n= 12827 Ireland 5% © 2018 Ipsos 36 “Immigration is causing my country to change in ways that I don’t like” 2017 – Strongly agree/ tend to agree 2016 – Strongly agree/ tend to agree Turkey 77% 74% Italy 63% 63% Russia 57% 60% Belgium 56% 55% Hungary 54% 56% South Africa 52% 49% France 49% 54% India 49% 52% Spain 46% 41% United States 46% 52% Argentina 46% 43% Germany 45% 44% Australia 45% 49% Sweden 44% 41% Great Britain 43% 47% Serbia 42% Poland 41% 43% Canada 40% 44% Saudi Arabia 38% 38% New Zealand 38% Peru 34% Mexico 32% 30% Japan 27% 24% South Korea 24% 30% Brazil 23% 23% “Immigration is causing my country to change in ways that I don’t like”. © 2018 Ipsos 37 T Total 55% 35% Q16 Perceptions - 1 Turkey 83% 13% Society 2 Italy 70% 22% 3 India 69% 25% 4 Russia 69% 20% 5 S Africa 69% 25% 6 Belgium 66% 24% 7 France 66% 24% 8 Germany 59% 33% 9 U.S. 59% 31% There are too many immigrants in 10 Indonesia 58% 33% my country 11 GB 56% 35% 12 Sweden 55% 39% 13 Mexico 53% 40% 14 Argentina 52% 38% 15 Spain 52% 37% 16 Peru 51% 41% 17 Australia 47% 41% 18 Canada 46% 43% 19 Brazil 41% 46% KEY: 20 S Korea 40% 51% Agree 2016 Disagree 2016 21 Poland 36% 46% 22 Japan 19% 58% Agree 2014 Disagree 2014 Base: 17,180 adults across 22 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016 © 2018 Ipsos 38 The Transition to a New Canadian Mindset © 2018 Ipsos 39 The New Canada • Urban-Suburban • Multicultural • Older, More Female • Smaller households • Increasing Generational Divide • Eyes on the Pacific • Tolerant, Opinionated, Demanding, Difficult • “We The North” © 2018 Ipsos 40 THE NEW CANADA For You… • Growth GTA to the West. • Suburban growth, rural/small town contraction. • Redefining work and retirement. • Living longer and healthier. • Growing share of “well-derly.” Emerging economic, political force. • More, smaller households. Smaller share of kids. • Younger generations – crushing debt, crushed dreams. • Single women at both ends of age scale. The “She-conomy.” Emerging economic, political force. • Pacific identity. • New global, mobile, middle class.