A newspaper from Germany

Vol. 12, June/July 2015 www.atlantic-times.com Section A One Dollar Printed in Springfield, VA.

In this issue Politics The limits Frozen conflict 2, 3 What does Ukraine’s future look like? And what goals is Vladimir Putin pursuing? Dmitri Trenin, Michael Stürmer and Wolfgang Ischinger give their answers. of summitry Iranian threat 4 Is the G-7 still fit for purpose in a changing Despite a nuclear agreement with Iran, the nightmare of an Iranian bomb is not geo-political landscape? | By Theo Sommer fundamentally banished, warns Michael Wolffsohn. What the West also overlooks – Iran is not just a danger to Israel and the wider Middle East.

Ukraine lesson 6 In its attitude to Russia, NATO remains in “wait-and-see” mode. But is that enough? Michael Rühle calls for a more comprehen- sive discussion of European security.

Jihadi rivalry 10 The recent violent excesses of the Islamic State (IS) have diverted attention in the West away from al Qaeda. But it remains the more dangerous opponent, warns Guido Steinberg.

Proxy war 11 The balance of power has shifted in the Middle East between Sunni and Shia states. The ongoing proxy war in the region between Iran and Saudi Arabia is the main symptom – and there is no cure in sight, writes Markus Bickel. Business Everybody hurts 13 Economic measures against Russia over Ukraine are also hitting Europe. And countries like China are filling the gap left by falling EU exports. German business leader Eckhard Cordes calls for more politics and fewer sanctions.

Economic warfare 13 War is out. Economic sanctions are in – they have “the grammar of commerce but the logic of war.” Mark Leonard on geo- politics of trade.

No coal 15 Global warming will increasingly dominate the development of energy markets. IMAGO/KYODO NEWS IMAGO/KYODO Climate protection starts with renouncing fossil fuels. Stephan Kohler recommends he world is out of joint, chiefly with societal problems and the summit agendas are enormously All smiles before the G-7 meeting using energy more effectively. and there is nobody to set issues of global governance rather overloaded; they lack focus. at Elmau: EU President Donald Tusk, it right. Under the violent than with geo-economic, geostrategic Different formats are required to re- Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, impact of Islamism, state and geopolitical bones of contention. install diplomacy in its rightful place. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Life Harper, US President Barack Obama, Tstructures in the Middle East and Inevitably, Ukraine, Chinese assertive- Since glamorous and time-consum- German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Party town 16, 17 North Africa are unraveling. Wars of ness, Greece cropped up in informal ing get-togethers like the Congress French President François Hollande, religion shake up parts of Black Africa. talks, but officially foreign affairs were of Vienna 1814/15 (nine months of Berlin has become a playground for British Prime Minister David Cameron, Perilous confrontations are building relegated to conversations around the negotiations) or the Berlin Congress Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi visitors from around the world. Two pages up in the Asia-Pacific region. And 25 dinner table. of 1878 (four weeks) are unsuitable and European Commission President of insider tips and some good advice from years after the end of the Cold War in The mountain in the Bavarian Alps instruments in our age of accelera- Jean-Claude Juncker. the New York Times writer Alison Smale: Europe, armed conflict has returned to went into labor and gave birth to tion, setting up permanent ambassa- Don’t forget the history side. the Old World – hybrid, not total war, a mouse. The final communiqué is dorial conferences for the settlement Past finder 18 but violent nevertheless. about as verbose as all of its predeces- of special problems might be the best understanding with Putin on the future Old certainties have evaporated in sors – and probably equally inconse- way to mitigate and minimize the relationship between Moscow and the Official Munich has not yet dealt the process: that Europe is irrevocably quential. Was the outcome worth the political conflicts which are pitting the West. Clearly Europe and the US must with its Nazi past, but the former on the way to an ever closer union; effort, the €130 million cost – not to powers against each other in Ukraine, ward off further Russian encroach- “capital of the movement” now has a that the security of Europe is central mention the annoying disturbance of the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific ments – “Thus far and no further!” – documentation center. to US strategy; that Russia no longer public order? Wouldn’t it have been region. must be the guideline. President Putin poses a threat to Western nations; that less trouble if the leaders had met In the pre-atomic age, diplomacy had has lied through his teeth in the face the rise of Asia, especially of China, on a battleship (like Roosevelt and three tools: persuasion, compromise of his Western interlocutors, no doubt would play out in the economic field Churchill, or Reagan and Gorbachev) and threat of force. The latter must about that. Still I think that our leaders ISSN 1864-3965 but would not have any geopolitical should beware of what Edmund Burke EUR 3,90 CHF 6,20 and geostrategic ramifications. called the “total want of consideration Challenges, crises and conflicts of what others naturally hope or fear.” spawn conferences. The year 2015 In an interview that Vladimir Putin has a surfeit of them. Three big UN The mountain gave to the Italian daily Corriere della summits will make headlines in the Sera on the eve of the Elmau summit, next six months: on financing devel- in the Bavarian Alps he made a number of statements that opment (Addis Ababa in July), on the should be taken seriously. He consid- follow-up to the Millennium Goals went into labor and gave ers Minsk II the only way to resolve (New York in September), and on birth to a mouse. the Ukrainian crisis, and he will do climate change (Paris in December). everything in his power to influence All of these subjects figured on the “self-proclaimed republics Donezk the agenda of the G-7 conference at and Lugansk” – the “separatists,” in Elmau. Protected by 20,000 police or on a cruiseliner far out in the ocean? be ruled out in a world in containing Western parlance. He denies any inten- and cordoned off from the world by The Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper a stockpile of around 70,000 nuclear tion to recreate the Soviet empire, let a 16-kilometer steel fence, the leaders dubbed the G-7 summit a “superfluous weapons. For the mitigation and alone of attacking NATO – “No one of the world’s seven leading indus- ritual” and asked: “What is the point minimization of conflicts the powers has to be afraid of Russia.” And he trial nations, spent 27 hours talking of all this unnecessary nonsense?” are thrown back to persuasion and put in a plug for the cooperation of the with each other. There was hardly a Summit meetings like Elmau won’t compromise. This means three things. European Union and his own Eurasian topic they ignored: Their “sherpas” change the world. First of all, they First of all: deal with the world as it Economic Union in the vast space had formulated detailed draft rec- are gatherings of the like-minded. The is instead of dreaming about what between Lisbon and Vladivostok. He ommendations and action plans: for troublemakers are not there – which it should be. Then, while guarding may be lying again, but the West had climate change and ridding the oceans makes proceedings less irksome but your interests, leave no stone unturned better probe his sincerity. Let’s take

of plastic waste, resistance to antibiot- also less effective. Russia’s President to discover complementary interests him at his word. ics, women’s empowerment and work Vladimir Putin should, of course, have that facilitate accommodation. Finally, In a surprising remark about arms standards in developing countries. In been present; disinviting him deprived heed Jean Monnet’s advice – if a prob- control, nuclear weapons prolif-

“outreach” sessions they focused on Western leaders of an opportunity to lem seems insoluble, widen the context eration and international terrorism, the Islamic arc of crisis, on trade and reason with him or, alternatively, to of your deliberations. Putin called himself an “ally” of the aid, on the lessons to be learned from read him the riot act. Second, these For the Ukrainian crisis this means United States. Actually it is hard to the Ebola epidemic. meetings are far too short for the that while it is indeed important to imagine how the turbulences in the But Elmau was an amazingly depo- principals to really master their brief implement the Minsk II agreement, The Atlantic Times 2000 Suite 335 M Street NW, Washington, DC, 20036 Washington, liticized summit, dealing, as it did, on such a vast array of issues. Third, it is just as crucial to attain a basic continued on page 8 2 June/July 2015 June/July 2015 3 Putin’s Russian revanche The Kremlin boss is playing a long game by his own rules: new order or no order | By Michael Stürmer

ew order – or no order: This is how the happened on the last day of that annus horribilis 1991 terms, gave notice at the Munich Security Conference column, incapacitating any authority in Kiev. But participants of the annual Valdai Club when all the constituent parts declared independence, that the time of weakness was over and that the West if they are not returned to Ukraine they set an omi- meeting, high above the warm breezes notwithstanding their political, financial, economic had better recognize that Russia had serious griev- nous precedent and confirm the Russian claim that of Sochi, were greeted by their Russian links to what had been the Russian center of power. ances. Only one year later, after Georgia’s suicidal the Kremlin is the overlord of any former Soviet hostsN in late October last year. It was a note reminis- The most important standard bearer in this exodus excursion into disputed territory, Russia annexed dominion. A statute of limited autonomy inside cent of the worst days of the Cold War. was Ukraine, with a fair share of Samuel Hunting- South Ossetia and Abkhazia while the West looked Ukraine, and generous help in the reconstruction of The message to this annual meeting of diplomats, ton’s “Clash of Civilizations” running right across the other way – preoccupied with drawing down its those provinces from he EU as well as Russia, plus an scholars, and ex-spooks from the US and Europe the country. Once the Soviet Union was gone, the once mighty military wherewithal. equitable settlement of energy supply looks like the was clear. The Russians understand the annexation Warsaw Pact followed suit. There was neither ability The shape of things to come was looming large. only chance to pacify a war torn region. of Crimea and its aftermath as a turning point from in Russia to negotiate a new security system, nor any While the West celebrated the outbreak of democracy The EU’s countermeasures of choice are economic weakness to strength, from an American-led world willingness among the countries coming in from the in Georgia and Ukraine, the Kremlin resented color- and financial sanctions directed towards the stalwarts system to a new competition for global power, and cold to ask the Russians for permission. revolutions and feared contagion, never more so than of Putin’s regime. But while they are effectively hurt- from cooperation to confrontation whenever it suits In the West, and especially in Washington, Russia in 2013 on Kiev’s Maidan Square. In a preemptive ing the Russian economy, they don’t seem to have any the Kremlin. Announcing the great alliance with was seen as a basket case. The more than 15,000 action, Russia annexed the Crimea peninsula. Even decisive impact on the powers that be. China is their version of the US “pivot” to the Pacific. nuclear warheads of the Soviet arsenal became the worse than the breach of international law is the Given the Russian potential for escalation both Never mind the hardship that Western sanctions chief object of concern; hundreds of them deployed violation of the Budapest Protocol of 1994 and the vertical and horizontal throughout the ill-defined inflict on the Russian people at a time of low oil prices in Ukraine. Nuclear arms control continued, up to challenge to accepted standards of behavior, all the “Near Abroad,” the West has resorted to financial or the strategic brinkmanship the Russian commander a point. It took a new, cooperative mode with the way from military confidence and security building and economic sanctions. Sanctions are measures in chief puts on display – Russia under Vladimir Nunn/Lugar amendment for joint nuclear deactiva- measures to well-established rules of civil aviation. between war and peace. Therefore, time-honoured When will the time come for he focus on the annex- Putin, for better or for worse, has decided to turn the tion and, even more importantly, the Budapest pro- Clausewitzian rules should apply, first and foremost peace and reconcilitation? ation of Crimea and The frontline village of conflict over Ukraine’s future into a defining moment tocol guaranteeing Ukraine’s territorial integrity in 2. Only bad options the imperative to keep strategy under the control the military conflict Peski close to the Donetsk in the history of the world. In an act of global one- return for giving up each and every nuclear warhead Ukraine is not a scenario that would activate Article of policy. Meanwhile, the problem for the West is in Eastern Ukraine, airport lies in ruins. upmanship Putin wants to go back to time-honored stationed on Ukrainian territory – with the notable 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. But it has the potential twofold: The level of sanctions was raised as far Ton the conflict with Russia, rules of geopolitics – balance of power, spheres of exception of the Russian-leased, Ukrainian-owned to split the Western alliance. as EU-unity – and economic well-being – would has tended to obscure the view influence, compensation for losses incurred – with a port of Sevastopol. Any military solution via NATO has been excluded allow, but the impact on the Russian economy, of the second, equally great rity and Co-operation in Europe controlling stake for Russia. It seemed that a lasting settlement on the new map by the German chancellor. In contrast, the American while serious, failed to curb Russian policy. No or greater danger for Ukrai - (OSCE). That is not in Ukraine’s Putin, as he made unmistakably clear in his combat- of Eastern Europe was under way. The West pro- concept of low level arms supply and deployment of further escalation will likely change the balance. It nian stability, namely that of interest – nor in the well-under- ive pronouncement in Sochi, broadcast in full the next ceeded with eastern enlargement of NATO while the military-technical advisors leads on a slippery slope. will only be in the way of cooperation where both economic collapse. Ukraine is stood interests of the EU. day on Russian state television, is willing to let Russia Russians reminded Western politicians that during Any such action amounts to war by proxy and, once antagonists need it most, such as non-proliferation, facing a twofold strategic chal- Fourthly, we need a collec- and the Russian people pay the price, no matter what. the “Two plus Four” negotiations on German unity world power prestige is at stake, can escalate into more arms control, terrorism, drugs, human trafficking, lenge: that of partition, and that tive effort by all OSCE mem- Even more so, blaming the new hardship on the West they were given to understand that in the foreseeable substantial military engagement, strategic misunder- organized crime – the world is still a dangerous place. of bankruptcy. bers – including Russia – to and Western sanctions allows him to rally patriotic future the new status quo would not be challenged. standing and, ultimately, the threat of nuclear war. The hard truth is that neither search for ways to strengthen support for his regime at a time of austerity. „Not an inch“ – as Secretary of State James Baker To add fuel to the fire results only in more casual- 3. And where do we go from here? Ukraine’s territorial integrity Europe’s security architecture. This challenge will not soon go away. It will force had assured his Soviet counterpart – would change ties, more bitterness, and more scars difficult to heal The answer concerns both methodology and sub-

and political and military secu- IMAGO/EST&OST Conventional and nuclear arms Western countries into a new mode of realpolitik, a hands and loyalty. once the hurly-burly is over. For the time being the stance. The present dual track escalation, military rity, nor its long-term economic control must be put back on sizeable strengthening of their defenses both military Notwithstanding serious differences, Moscow fighting over the Lugansk and Donetsk regions con- and strategic by Russia, economic and financial by rehabilitation can be realized the agenda as well as crisis pre- and non-military, and a coherent effort, not unlike the accepted the eastward movement of NATO forms to the Russian doctrine of hybrid or the West, is bound to end in huge losses to both sides, while the country is involved vention and confidence-building policies of containment inaugurated when the World and was compensated through the non-linear war. This is a war that Russia possibly catastrophe. in a sustained conflict with its measures. There can be no place War Two transited into the Cold War. Much as NATO-Russia Founding Act. cannot lose and Ukraine cannot win. The demonization of Putin, Kissinger warns, is only big neighbor Russia. The case With or without Russia in Europe for military saber- George F. Kennan, 70 years ago, argued for a patient While the Russians had assumed As far as the Crimea file is con- an ersatz policy. Aiming for regime change through of Ukraine demonstrates the rattling, given the ever-present and firm response to Soviet expansionism, until one that they would have a droit de cerned, it can only be added to economic sanctions against Russia is a fantasy. “It’s need for a more sustainable nuclear threat. Both sides should day Soviet policy would mellow, the time has come regard, something akin to a veto the long list of frozen conflicts the economy, stupid” – is the American credo, Russia and more comprehensive secu- The task: Resolving the Ukraine crisis | By Wolfgang Ischinger be interested in reducing risks to understand that the Russian leader is playing a over NATO policy, the view in in the world, especially around is different. When the oil price recovers – sooner or rity architecture in Europe – not of miscalculation and escala- long game. What is at stake is not a brief moment of Brussels was different. When Russia. The man in the Kremlin later this is bound to happen – this will give a tonic against Russia, but with Russia. tion by accepting restraints on discomfort but a long and strenuous contest between communication was most has invested so much political to Russia, weaken the oil-dependent West and deepen At the same time, defending summit in Wales should be taken Ukraine – far more important EU can demonstrate the power question of NATO member- military overflights and related the transatlantic way of life and the Russian claim to needed over Kosovo and capital that he is by now the the misery of Ukraine. No time to loose. against possible aggression from seriously. Equally important are than punishing Russia with of the European canon of values. ship for Ukraine was essentially activities. And visions of strate- set the rules. NATO’s war against Serbia prisoner of his own actions. Why not make use of formats and institutions that Russia happens to be high on steps towards a more credible sanctions. We owe it to the young gen- answered in the negative long gic economic cooperation also In this new situation the ques - in 1999, the telephone lines The future of the rebel- have proven their usefulness in overcoming the fault the agenda of many in the cur- and more capable EU security The “Draghi model” can help eration of Ukrainians who pro- ago. Only the government in deserve attention, harking back tions to guide future policies are three: fell silent. regions in the Donbass lines of the Cold War, such as the Helsinki Process rent crisis. and defense policy. When, if here. Just as the European cen- tested on Maidan Square not Kiev is still clinging onto the to old ideas of an economic zone Ever since, while the oil price remains much more of an or the OSCE? Conventional arms control is in urgent What needs to happen to guar- not now, has the time come to tral Bank (ECB) president was against Russia, but against a idea. Now, a courageous step “from Lisbon to Vladivostok.” • How did we get into the present troubled recovered from its historic low open question. If they return need of repair; so is nuclear arms control in the face antee Ukraine’s territorial integ- introduce the principle of inte- able to calm the markets with corrupt Ukrainian elite, which is needed which only Kiev can And finally, the OSCE – which state of affairs? throughout the 1990s, Russia under the jurisdiction of Kiev of proliferators old and new. The NATO Russia rity and to consolidate the secu- gration, of synergies, to defense a single sentence, so the EU was robbing the country’s youth take. had almost been pronounced • What is at stake, and what are the options? regained negotiating power and they will forever be a Founding Act is still on the statute books and can be rity architecture of the whole and armaments? That would not could make it clear that it will of its chance at a European The EU could tie the com- dead – has demonstrated its • And where do we go from here? the potential to cause thorn in the side revived and put to good use. continent? only strengthen the EU’s ability do everything it can to support future. prehensive aid package pro- unique usefulness in the crisis, trouble. In 2007 of Ukraine, The volume should be lowere, displays of military I propose a dual strategy, to act effectively, it would also Ukraine on its path to economic These people – young journal- posed above to expectations particularly with its Special 1. The crisis of our time Putin, in no a fifth prowess reduced to a symbolic minimum. All kinds of combining military strength and send an unmistakable signal to recovery. Such a public state- ists reporting on fraud, junior that Ukraine begin to more Monitoring Mission to Ukraine Some time before the standoff over Ukraine began uncer- grandstanding should be suspended for the duration security and NATO reassurance Moscow. ment would create new confi- politicians fighting nepotism, strongly define itself as a bridge (SMM), which works under and confrontation ensued, George Shultz, secretary of tain of the standoff. Self-restraint and face-saving should policies on the one hand, with Secondly – what about deliv- dence in Ukraine. But that alone NGOs promoting understand- between East and West – rather the most difficult conditions. state under US President Ronald Reagan, addressed once again be part of the diplomatic toolbox, offers of comprehensive coop- ering arms to the Ukrainian would not suffice. If actions are ing and reconciliation between as Finland, Austria, and even What could be more obvious a meeting of the American Academy in Berlin with including a sense of history, mutual respect eration in the Euro-Atlantic military? Military support for to follow the words, it will cost the ethnic groups – are the hope Switzerland have done in the than to build on the multilateral a warning concerning the future of Russia. Russia, and common ground. Backchannels should region on the other – much as Kiev, supporting the rehabilita- money – a lot of money – which for a better Ukraine, a Euro- past. Of course only Ukrainians framework of the OSCE – the this seasoned diplomat remarked, was like a badly be used, wherever there is a chance – com- the original German Ostpolitik tion and democratization of the given the debate over Greece is pean Ukraine. The EU can do themselves can decide to embark three “baskets” of the Helsinki wounded grizzly bear: Strong, unpredictable, mercial, cultural, diplomatic. did in the 1970s. Ukrainian armed forces would not likely to be a popular sug- far more here, for instance, by on such a course – towards an Accords – in order to bring resentful, and driven by a long memory. The present standoff resembles the Firstly, a clear military mes- need to be part of a compre- gestion anywhere in the EU. allowing visa-free travel, creat- independent, self-determined security and cooperation to the Shultz, who could never be accused of having double crisis over Berlin and Cuba sage remains essential. Russia’s hensively coordinated political But what is the alternative? ing more grants for Ukrainian Ukraine with links to the West fore in Europe in the wake of too much sympathy for Russia and its rulers, half a century ago. When the nuclear annexation of Crimea and ongo- process – because no one will Wouldn’t the follow-up costs – students, and by supporting and the East. the Ukraine disaster? was, like Henry Kissinger, a practitioner superpowers went to the brink, they ing Russian support – both open benefit from renewed escalation political, military and financial NGOs in the country. Thirdly, we need an exit strat- It was not impossible to get of realpolitik who would not forget that saw the ashes of their own destruc- and clandestine – for separatists of the conflict. On the other – of a collapse of Ukraine, the That is one side of the dual egy from the politically unhelp- a diplomatic, political process Russia is never as strong as it looks and tion – and converged in a new in eastern Ukraine have lead to hand, we should not make a EU’s biggest eastern neighbor, strategy – reassurance by NATO ful exclusion of Russia from the going even during the Cold War. never as weak, and that its strategies balance of power, arms control very serious security concerns in taboo out of military aid to be potentially far greater? partners and comprehensive G-8. Given the annexation of We should propose to Moscow and policies are inspired by stars differ- and self-restraint. This time Europe, particularly among our Ukraine – a defenseless Ukraine Of course, no such aid proj- help for, and cooperation with, Crimea, the exclusion cannot to restart such a diplomatic ent from those used for guidance in the around, the stakes are as high easternmost NATO partners, could also present a threat to ect can be permitted to let the Ukraine. The other side of the be reversed in the short to mid- process. An OSCE conference West, especially in the US. as ever. The present crisis the Baltic States and Poland. European security. Ukrainian government off the strategy should focus more on term without a loss of face for should, however, not be allowed In the misery days of Yeltsin, the early may indeed give birth to a NATO has rightly responded Thirdly, the EU must advance hook regarding the reform Russia. the West. One possible way out to undermine the Helsinki prin- 1990s, educated Russians could be heard new steady state. Depend- with a program of political and the energy union, with the aim agenda, particularly in the area Firstly, the sanctions must could be to turn the 5 plus ciples or the Paris Charter. It describing their nation’s state of mind in ing on the West, its nego- military reassurance. NATO’s of greater diversification of oil of fighting corruption. On the remain in place – as far as and as 1 format – used for negotia- should be about whether we terms of Weimar and Versailles. Russia, tiating power, coherence external borders are inviolable and gas imports – and a strate- contrary, the project would need long as Moscow and the separat- tions with Iran – into a much can work together to reaffirm it seemed, was doomed, the half-hearted IMAGO/ZUMA PRESS and leadership, a new and must remain so. And just gic reduction of dependence on to be tied to clear progress in ists fail to comply comprehen- broader platform with Russia, and reinforce European security attempt at democracy associated with pov- order may be found, at as our NATO partners dem- Russian fuel. this area. A kind of “Troika” sively with the Minsk Protocol. which could address all kinds of principles and where necessary, erty and weakness, not much of a future was best a rough balance, onstrated their solidarity with Fourthly, Ukraine needs much in Kiev, including an EU special But obviously Kiev must also global and regional issues, such to add to them. Then it is up left for the heirs of the once mighty Soviet at worst a mix of con- West Germany for more than greater financial and economic envoy, could play an important throw its full weight into the as Ukraine and Syria. to Moscow to say yes or no Union. Anyone in a position to abandon the frontation and coop- four decades, we must now dem- help and backup. The aid that role in this – and in the imple - implementation of the Minsk That would have the addi- – and perhaps, if the answer sinking ship did in fact leave. eration. onstrate our solidarity with our has been agreed on with the mentation of the Association deal or the sanctions will lose tional benefit of making Wash- is no, to risk further isolating First to depart were the Baltic states who, For the time being, Eastern allies. International Monetary Fund Agreement (DCFTA). their political purpose. We have ington a full partner again itself among the 57 participating after 50 years of occupation, declared inde- we have to contend with the This program needs to be (IMF) will not be enough. Fifthly, this is about far more to read the riot act to both sides. in crisis management efforts states in the OSCE. n pendence. But that was still only a marginal wisdom of Churchill: “I cannot tell you backed up by a reversal in the George Soros has lent his voice than getting Ukraine back on its Secondly, the dispute over regarding Ukraine. Currently, loss. The real break up of the Soviet Union the future of Russia. It is a riddle inside an downward trend in the defense to the chorus pointing this financial feet – it is also about Ukraine’s prospects of joining the US is neither represented in enigma shrouded in mystery.” n - Wolfgang Ischinger, Germany’s former budgets of many NATO part out, and has rightly stressed the country’s civil society. In this NATO must be settled once the Normandy format nor in ambassador to the US and the UK, New national hero: A monument to Russian ners. The 2 percent goal that more aid from the West greatest security crisis since the and for all, in Ukraine’s own the Trilateral Contact Group is the Chairman of the Munich Security President Vladimir Putin, erected in St. Petersburg Historian Michael Stürmer has been chief correspondent endorsed at the 2014 NATO is of existential importance for collapse of the Soviet Union, the interests. To be honest, the of the Organization for Secu- Conference. by a group of St. Petersburg Cossacks. of the Berlin-based daily Die Welt since 1989.

our months after the Minsk II accords, the The restoration of Kiev’s control of the Ukrainian- provoked speculations about a climb-down from social tensions and ultimately to political upheavals exchanging prisoners. This means in practice much Ironically, the problem can hardly be solved by Treaty (INF) might return US missiles to Europe, so Ukraine crisis continues to simmer, with Russian border, which was supposed to begin right the 15-months-old confrontation between Russia overthrowing the Maidan-installed leadership in Kiev. tighter control of the forces physically confronting means of Russia’s exclusion from the rest of Europe; that they can target Russian strategic assets at close occasional violent eruptions. The ceasefire after the local elections and be completed after the Harsh and the West over Ukraine. Freezing the conflict for now looks like the best option each other across the line of contact. this is a recipe for a continued standoff. No “grand range. Should that happen, a new Euromissile crisis in Donbass has not prevented some 1,000 “full political regulation” of the situation in Donbass This, unfortunately, is wishful thinking. The for both the United States and Russia. Russia, of course, will have to support Donbass bargain” between Russia and the West is even will be inevitable. peopleF from losing their lives since February, adding by the end of 2015, has been blocked by complete lack most that has been achieved in Sochi is a degree of A frozen conflict in Donbass is not what the Euro- economically and financially, but that burden will be conceivable at this point. European security is at an It may be that things will get worse before they get to the previous fatality count of more than 5,000. of progress on the political front. There has been no realities in understanding between Washington and Moscow pean Union wants. Europe insists on full implemen- light compared to the burden that others will have impasse. better. If so, then rather than thinking about some Some of the heavy weapons that both sides should evidence of a pullout of foreign forces and weapons about the dangers of allowing the conflict to boil tation of the Minsk accords. However, it needs to to carry to support Ukraine and avert its meltdown. While no new “end state” of European security grand architecture for the future, it would make have pulled back from the line of contact are still and disarmament of illegal groups. Russia’s support over and potentially to widen. Both the Russians face up to the harsh realities. Donbass rebels want As for the rest of Minsk II, the agreement should be is visible at this time, things will likely have to play more sense now to think about stepping away from positioned close to that line, and are active. for the “people’s republics” is unwavering. Constitu- Ukraine and the Americans sought assurances from the a confederal status within Ukraine, complete with a converted into an open-ended diplomatic process, themselves out. The Baltic States and Poland should the brink. Despite some technical contacts with the participa- tional reform in Ukraine aimed at drawing up a new other party that they are not pursuing a military veto on the country’s potential NATO membership. which might come in handy when and if conditions feel safe: Russia is not after them. Pathways leading toward safer ground include tion of both Kiev and Donbass, political dialogue on basic law for the country by the end of 2015, even if solution. The Obama Administration, focusing Kiev wants to crush the rebellion, punish its leaders on the ground change. New crises, however, are possible elsewhere – for stabilizing the situation in Donbass; preventing a new the “modalities” of local elections has not started. it proceeds, will go on without Donbass. Standoff between the West on the president’s foreign policy legacy, was also and activists, and end Russian interference in Ukraine. Four decades after Helsinki and a quarter-cen- example in Transnistria, where the Russian-protected crisis in Transnistria; using confidence-building mea- Kiev has balked at issuing pardon and amnesty to This is a dismal record by any standard, but com- interested in getting Russia’s continued cooperation No compromise between the two seems possible. tury after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Europe has mini-state may be squeezed hard by Ukraine and sures and direct lines of communication to prevent those it still terms “terrorists.” Exchanges of prisoners pared to the numerous and highly authoritative recent and Russia as Minsk II stalls on the Iranian nuclear issue, and possibly also Syria Minsk II is definitely headed for a train wreck. Its entered a new period of insecurity. This is not just Moldova. In the bigger scheme of things, Ukraine’s accidents and avoid miscalculation. For the United and hostages have taken place, but some are definitely predictions from Kiev, picked up in Brussels and and the Islamic State (IS). likely failure, however, must not be allowed to lead one crisis, however acute, which can be resolved domestic evolution will be of prime importance. Will States, Russia is now Europe’s problem to deal with. still being held against their will. Some humanitarian Washington, of an imminent Russian invasion, the By Dmitri Trenin The last thing Obama needs is a conflict in Ukraine to a resumption of the large-scale hostilities that we in short order, so that the situation returns to the country finally be able to reform itself or will the The Europeans need to rise to the challenge and come supplies are managing to get through to the region but situation is less bad than feared by many. Moreover, getting out of control, confronting his administration saw last summer and winter. “normal.” Things will not be fixed quickly. Behind country’s elites, which have not changed much since up with a strategy of conflict management, prevention no convoys are allowed to cross the ceasefire lines. the month of May has seen some diplomatic activity For the first time in many months, Russian Presi- with the risk of deeper and more direct US involve- To avert looming disaster, the parties to the Minsk the Ukraine crisis looms the Russia problem, which the Maidan revolution, use the conflict in Donbass and eventually resolution. Their own security depends “Full restoration of social and economic transfers,” between the West and Russia, including the visits by dent Vladimir Putin was engaged face-to-face by ment. The Kremlin, for its part, having protected the agreement and the United States need to focus on despite a number of attempts, was not solved by as an excuse not to? on it. n including pensions and taxes, has not happened. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel to Moscow and a senior member of the Obama administration. rebel-held enclave in Donbass, is preparing now to those elements of it which can be implemented: stabi- means of the country’s inclusion into the Euro- Finally, US concerns about alleged Russian vio- reality is more of a tightening economic blockade. by US Secretary of State John Kerry to Sochi. These conversations, particularly Kerry’s, have sit and watch economic hardship in Ukraine lead to lizing the ceasefire; pulling back heavy weapons; and Atlantic security system. lations of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Dmitri Trenin is Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. 4 June/July 2015 June/July 2015 5

nuclear agreement with Iran is in Iranian Bomb. In the First Gulf War (1980- sight, finally. The nightmare of a 88) the destruction of the Islamic Republic A-bomb in the hands of the Shiite by Saddam Hussein’s Iraq seemed at hand. revolutionaries seems to have been Peace for our time? In this emergency situation, leaders in Tehran Europe needs a defense union Abanished. Thank you, permanent members of launched a nuclear weapons program. At the the UN Security Council and Germany. That, Nuclear deal or not – Iran remains a threat time, Israel played no part in their thinking. The EU has the money and the men – what it lacks is effectiveness | By Hans-Peter Bartels briefly, is the general impression. Israel still has a nuclear weapons monopoly Neville Chamberlain pledged “peace for to the whole Middle East | By Michael Wolffsohn in the Middle East. Why not Iran then too? our time” in 1938 following the Munich What works for Israel would also be good et’s state clearly what the prob- No EU state really as sensible to have US headquarters for Conference with Hitler. Bill Clinton similarly for Iran, right? One could also see the matter lem is. We don’t need any diplo- wants to spend more the United States in Europe as it is to have hailed his 1994 nuclear deal with North differently, historically and empirically. Israel matic phrases or political catch- on its military. For this EU headquarters for Europe in Europe. Korea, which trashed the agreement years ago. has kept its nuclear monopoly for decades words: The Common Security reason, the EU must Because we don’t have any such headquar- become much more Barack Obama has likewise been singing the without threatening to use it, let alone actually andL Defence Policy (CSDP), which we ters, we prefer not to acknowledge and effective in the area praises of the Lausanne framework accords. pushing the button. have relied upon to date, is the weakest of defense. eliminate all the duplications of capabili- The world is celebrating; only Israel is bucking Libya under Gaddafi attempted to build a link in European integration. The Lisbon ties in our 28 EU member states. This gives the trend. Why? nuclear device until 2003 and then stopped. Treaty demands far more and allows far rise to the following six requirements. I was asked to contribute an article discuss- Israel’s air force destroyed Syria’s Iranian- more joint defense. First: We need our own military EU ing Israel’s objections and concerns. I have backed nuclear arms development facilities Sometimes you need a crisis to make real headquarters in Europe (as suggested not done so and will not, as I am a scholar in September 2007. progress. We now have a crisis in Eastern by Gerhard Schröder and Jean-Claude and essayist, not a propagandist for any side. Even today, most Arab states feel threat- Europe – in Russia and Ukraine. And a Juncker as far back as 2003), in Brussels! However, I certainly can and will discuss ened not by the Israeli monopoly, but by the crisis to the southeast – the jihadist totali- Now. Anyone who wants to join is in. why the supposed bearers of peace, the 5 + 1, prospect of a duopoly, should Iran succeed tarianism of the Islamic State in Syria and Second: We need a defense commis- who have been negotiating for so long, have in building its own bomb. Just look at the Iraq. And a crisis to the south – the legacy sioner in the European Commission, by nonetheless come up short. outraged reaction of Saudi Arabia and the of the Arab Spring, not just in Libya. 2019 at the latest. On the technical side we can say that the Gulf states to the Lausanne talks. And we all have the same money prob- Third: We need a formally independent planned final accord will make it harder for Why would Iran seek to build a bomb if the lem – no EU state really wants to spend European Union Council of Defense Min- Iran to build a nuclear weapon – substantially whole enterprise seems senseless? From the more on its military. And many can’t – IMAGO/WESTEND61 isters (in the format of the Foreign Affairs so, even, but not structurally. Iranian viewpoint, it is anything but. As the they cannot take out more debt. For this Council). As the nuclear powers knew during the Cold conflict with the Arab states progresses – an reason, the European Union must become Fourth: We need an independent defense War between East and West, and as both end is nowhere in sight – a nuclear deadlock much more effective in the area of defense. committee in the European Parliament Israel and Iran know now: the use of nuclear would lead to an intensified conventional The 28 EU nations spend €190 billion on (instead of the Subcommittee on Defense weapons (assuming both sides have them) arms race. In the long term, structurally, defense all told. That is a lot of money, of the European Parliament’s Committee leads to mutual assured destruction. Neither Israel can only lose this race: demographically, three times what Russia, for example, on Foreign Affairs). would survive. economically, and therefore, eventually, mili- spends on its military. But we don’t spend Fifth: We need more concrete multina- The lethal radiation of Iranian nuclear tarily. That is the main Israeli criticism of the the money effectively enough – not in any tional agreements between the armies – devices against Israel would target not only nuclear deal with Iran. In no way is it limited of the 28 member states. such as the joint naval headquarters of the the Jewish state, but also Iran’s allies and to the hawks surrounding Prime Minister All together, the EU member states have Netherlands and Belgium, like the Euro- clients: the Shi’ite Hezbollah militia in Leba- Netanyahu. It is, unfortunately, real. 1.5 million soldiers – many more than, pean Air Transport Command in Eind- non, friends and foes in Syria, which under Often overlooked and even unknown in the say, the United States. But is this gigantic, hoven, the integration of the Netherlands’ the Assad regime is still a strategic player on US and Western Europe is that Iran threatens 1.5 million-strong army actually visible 11th Airmobile Brigade into the German Tehran’s side, and of course the pro-Iranian far more states than just Israel. Tehran’s mis- anywhere? Do we really believe that we Rapid Forces Division, and the coopera- Hamas groups in the Palestinian territories. siles currently have a proven range of approxi- are that strong? Do others believe that we tion agreement between the German and Even if one considers the Iranian leadership mately 2,200 kilometers. Some unverified are unbeatably strong? The honest answer Polish armies. We are not starting at zero totally irrational, this kind of counterproduc- reports from Western intelligence services is – not really. the Bundeswehr with the armies of our be. NATO does not compete against the tion of capabilities.” That may sound like here. We have already made a start. tive conduct would be unthinkable by any – which are more than occasionally wrong Does that mean we need more soldiers? European neighbors, friends and partners. United States, nor is it supposed to. a smart way to save money, but this very Sixth: We need a new European Security cogent standard. It makes no strategic sense. (see Iraq 2003) – claim that Iran is working No. Does it mean we need more money? Will that happen fast? No. It will take The US and the EU could act to comple- dictate has prevented us from becoming Strategy. The ESS of 2003 was a milestone Unlike Iran, Israel has a nuclear second- overtime to develop missiles with a range of No. What we need is effectiveness. That two or three decades, just like the road ment one another within NATO. There more effective. What it means is this: No because it placed Europe’s commitment strike capability. That means, should Israel 10,000 kilometers. means we need more cooperation. Specifi- to the single currency, the euro. And are tasks for the US that are not NATO EU military headquarters. And that means to multilateralism side-by-side with US be hit by Iranian nuclear weapons, it could Proven – because it has been launched and cally, we first need more interoperability, will everyone join in? No. As with the tasks – such as those in east Asia. And – when it comes to defense – NATO is unilateralism. Ever since, the Common still retaliate. Thanks to German-built subma- displayed – is also Iran’s satellite program. second more standardized training, thirdly euro, many will participate, but nobody there are tasks for Europe, which are not everything and the EU is nothing, or at Security and Defense Policy has been on rines that were partly subsidized and partly The first launch vehicle was built in Russia. more standardized equipment, fourthly has to. NATO tasks – such as those in Africa. most, a subordinate helper. the world stage. Europe announced that donated, Israel has the capacity. In 1991, Now Iran is building its own. Anyone who more joint leadership, fifthly a greater Twenty-two of the 28 EU nations are There are common tasks for America and The United States heads NATO in Brus- it aimed to be an independent actor. But under the Kohl-Genscher government, Israel can build rockets for satellites can also build division of labor, and sixthly, we need also members of NATO. An improve- Europe within NATO. And NATO would sels, run by a four-star general. At the same since then there has been far too little got the possibility to build a second strike long-range missiles for military purposes. In more real integration. ment of European defense would like- be all the stronger for these joint tasks if time, the US has its own military headquar- progress. Today we have new crises, a capability. Deliveries were suspended under the shorter rather than over the longer term, The German coalition agreement wise provide a boost to the credibility of Europe itself were stronger. ters for all the US forces in Europe. new Commission – and a new chance. n Gerhard Schröder and Joschka Fischer, but then, Iran will have strategic ballistic mis- between the CDU/CSU and the SPD also the transatlantic alliance. NATO defense There is one really stupid imperative, a These headquarters are in Europe, in Chancellor Angela Merkel has resumed them siles. It will not need them to attack Israel, points out where this process could lead and EU defense policy are not opposites. really annoying principle, which has pre- Germany – more specifically, in Stuttgart. Hans-Peter Bartels, a former Member of the Bundestag for the Social Democratic Party, and Chairman of in the course of the three successive governing of course. Tehran is 1,600 kilometers away to in the end – to a European army. Ger- NATO and the EU are not competitors. vented us from becoming more effective in They are called USEUCOM. Is that a its Defense Commitee, is the new Parliamentary coalitions she has headed since 2005. from Tel Aviv. Iran’s existing missile arsenal many is prepared to phase in a merger of Certainly, there is no need for them to Europe for a long time. It is “no duplica- duplication of capabilities? No, it is just Commissioner for the Armed Forces. Despite the satisfaction that a nuclear sec- is already up to that task. ond-strike capability might give Israel, if This means that Iran’s leaders have far more nuclear war were to break out it would not than Israel in their sights. Why else would prevent Israel’s destruction. This second strike they be investing billions (that the civilian has been called the “Samson option.” Just like population sorely needs) in middle- and long- the Old Testament judge Samson, an Israel range missiles and satellite programs? To hit facing its demise would destroy its enemies New York, a ballistic missile would have to as well. The deterrent effect is clear. deliver a nuclear warhead over a distance of Israel’s nuclear doctrine has been based on 9,900 kilometers from Tehran. That is the Delivering solutions. Samson from the beginning. Its principle, “if geographic sense – or insanity – behind Iran’s we go down, we take our enemies down with missile program. us,” could also be stated as: “that day will not The distance from Iran to Berlin (3,600 km), come, because our bomb deters the enemy Paris (4,200 km) and London (4,400 km) is from launching his strike in the first place.” far shorter. As soon as Iran develops interme- At the beginning of the Yom Kippur War in diate range delivery systems, it will be able to October 1973, it seemed as if Israel would defend itself using missile deterrence against You serve the world’s markets. have to implement the Samson option, as a tough and sometimes crippling EU sanctions crushing defeat appeared imminent. When that include bans on oil purchases from Iran. the US provided aid to Israel, the German It is high time that Germany, Europe and the government under Willy Brandt and Walter US look not only at the contents of nuclear, Scheel refused at first to support US policy biological, chemical and conventional war- So do we. and therefore Israel. heads, but also at their delivery systems and The substance of the Samson Option the strategy that derives from Iran’s missile (excluding the Old Testament and Judaism, of geography, and gauge the threat they repre- course) may also have guided the fathers of the sent. n

Michael Wolffsohn is Professor of Travels more than Modern History at the Bundeswehr 2,000 kilometers: A long range University in Munich. His recent book Shahab-3 is launched during a test “Zum Weltfrieden. Ein politischer Entwurf”

in Iran on Sept. 28, 2009. NEWS AGENCY PICTURE ALLIANCE/LANDOV/UPI/ALI SHAYGAN/FARS was published in 2015. Stepping out of the comfort zone Is Germany ready to assume more responsibility? Herfried Münkler defines the country’s changing role in a new book

es, we’re ready to in the Center. Germany’s new with the relatively decreasing not one day emerge as a supra- Although it is especially important lead,” said German duties in Europe”, which has been power of the US, world order national United States of Europe. for a power in the center to pro- Herfried Münkler’s “ Defense Minister debated in Berlin’s political circles hinges on the ability of several of Because the US has largely with- ceed with caution in this regard, groundbreaking 2004 Ursula von der ever since. those regional powers to prevent drawn from European security Germany can however make an study of “The New LeyenY at the Munich Security With the concept of a “power or at least contain conflicts. policy issues, writes Münkler: equally effective security policy Wars” about the shift Conference last January. Not of in the center”, Münkler draws The book takes stock of the cur- “Europe must solve its problems contribution by limiting the flow from symmetrical course with militaristic gestures, upon an idea set out by von der rent situation and how we have itself, it can no longer count on of refugees, an undertaking that conflicts between states she expanded, not by taking hold Leyen, who spoke in Munich of arrived here; it is a summary – in being taken by the hand and led must primarily include financial to asymmetrical global of the steering wheel to set the a “leadership from the center”. consideration of how concepts by the US.” support for the Middle East and relationships of force is course, and not out of the convic- Criticized at the time as a plati- have been developed over time – of Münkler recommends that sub-Saharan Africa. available in English. His tion that it must be number one tude, in Münkler’s version the what it means to be a geographical German policies maintain the In view of Germany’s strength, new book “Power in the in Europe. idea has been developed into a and political center, and a cautious nation’s economic power while Münkler’s recommendations may Center” has not been But the changed political and more determined readiness, indeed recommendation for Germany’s deploying it in a compensatory sound reassuringly sensible and translated yet. economic situation in Europe and if necessary an integrative, but future political course. manner aimed at achieving bal- moderate to those abroad. Within the world – and the no longer at the same time strong German In its role as a power in the ance; without the net contributor Germany itself, the question is Your top priority is that your cargo reaches its destination – not how it gets there. avoidable question of Germany’s role: “It behoves the power in the center, Germany has undergone Germany, no EU. Berlin will have being asked whether politics and With our global network, we perfectly combine rail, road, ocean, and air freight to ensure role within it, demands more pre- center to hold Europe together, to various changes over the past two to insist on good compliance more the general public will be able to cise answers. counter the new centrifugal forces decades, says Münkler. Follow- forcefully than in the past when step out of this “comfort zone” that your goods make it anywhere in the world. Safely, reliably, and right on schedule. This is what renowned 64-year- that repeatedly emerge, to break ing two rounds of the European it comes to EU treaties. Domesti- and assume more responsibility. And we do it quickly, efficiently, and affordably. From simple transport services to complex old Professor Herfried Münkler down divergent interests and mod- Union’s eastwards expansion pro- cally, whether this is a popular That would mean not wanting to logistics processes, we have tailormade solutions to fulfill your needs. from Berlin’s Humboldt University erate compensatory processes,” gram, Germany has moved “into notion or not, military spending be loved by everyone anymore: Let us serve you: www.dbschenker.com. is attempting to do. After publish- he writes. the geographical center of the will have to exceed 1.3 percent “We have to be content with ing a lengthy bestseller on World Münkler considers a regional politically composed Europe,” he of GDP in future and the country being well-esteemed and respected, War I in 2013, this spring he power to be something different writes. A Europe that will remain will have to ramp up its mili- sometimes being admired – but presented his latest book, “Power than a world power. However, an ensemble of nations, and will tary commitments along with it. that will have to be it.” n 6 June/July 2015 June/July 2015 7

navy frigate on an anti- Technical problems: pirate mission off the The new Airbus A400M coast of Somalia lack- transport aircraft. ing the necessary heli- Acopters for its boarding teams; a Bundeswehr was sent to Afghani- brand new military transport air- stan in 2001, neither political nor craft grounded in northern Ger- military leaders expected a real many; the G36 assault rifle that combat mission. The troops were turns unpredictably inaccurate seen as a stabilization force in a when used in hot environments or relatively quiet environment. It after extended use in combat: in was not until 2008 that German the year of its 60th anniversary, soldiers got into regular combat the German Bundeswehr is hit- situations. ting the headlines with reports Now that the mission in of malfunctioning military equip- Afghanistan is drawing to an ment – while its strategic focus end, there is a great reluctance remains unclear. to engage in another large-scale The technical problems with deployment. The Bundeswehr the old Sea Lynx and the new is focusing on supposedly low- NH90 helicopters, with the new risk training missions in Mali, Airbus A400M transport aircraft, Somalia, and Iraq. “Enable and or with the G36 rifle are not enhance” is the snappy phrase inherently linked. It may even be created for this sort of minor a coincidence that they all made An insecure army mission that allows the political the news at around the same time. leadership to demonstrate global But the issue is highly politi- On its 60th anniversary, the Bundeswehr looks back at two decades engagement. cal. Both the current minister of But in the face of Putin’s Ukrai- The Alliance is back defense, Ursula von der Leyen, of dramatic reforms. But it may have to start all over again | By Eric Chauvistré nian challenge, the Bundeswehr

and her predecessor Thomas de SIELSKI IMAGO/JOACHIM is preparing once again for con- Maizière are seen as potential flict in Europe. In an attempt to The changes in the European security landscape call for a new defense concept Christian Democratic party can- – what the Bundeswehr should be ticularly embarrassing because will soon replace the old guard Bundeswehr had to transform strengthen deterrence, it will reac- didates for the chancellorship, able to do, what one could realis- the Bundeswehr, as part of the recruited and trained during the itself from an army equipped with tivate some of its previously moth- By Michael Rühle once Angela Merkel steps down. tically expect of it, and what price German Netherlands Corps, are East-West confrontation at a thousands of main battle tanks balled Leopard 2 tanks and is even This explains the unusual degree one would be prepared to pay for to be at the heart of Nato’s newly time when the Bundeswehr was confronting a potential Soviet planning to develop a follow-up of attention. The defense portfo- maintaining an effective force. established “Very High Readiness a much stronger and larger force attack on the Elbe river and in the system. But even if this is imple- lio has always been seen as the The reports that create the image Joint Task Force” (VJTF), set up – but never seriously expected to “Fulda gap” to a light expedition- mented without the usual time ultimate test for ambitious politi- of a poorly equipped force come in response to Russian action in fight a real war. The new genera- ary army fighting guerrilla forces delays and cost overruns in arms cians in Germany. Most of them at a time when German defense the Ukraine to deter any attacks tion of officers may have a clearer on the Kunduz river in Northern procurement, it will most certainly IMAGO/CHRISTIAN OHDE failed and had to step down early. policy and the Bundeswehr itself on the Baltic states. Given the idea of what combat means and Afghanistan. A deployment that not lead to the thousands of tanks So far, only Helmut Schmidt, face tremendous challenges, both drastically reduced stocks in arms how little the use of force may was hailed as a shining example the Bundeswehr had in its stocks s a “bad” Russia “good” The challenge now is to translate The RAP reflects the reaffirma- remain engaged in contingencies Hence, NATO has started to among several, but the Alliance minister of defense in the early domestically and internationally. and vehicles, putting the contin- sometimes achieve, but it is also of the Bundeswehr as a force during the Cold War. for NATO? Many observ- these initial steps into concrete, tion of the logic of deterrence and beyond collective defense. review its intelligence-sharing must demonstrate that it is ready 1970s, actually went on to the First, 25 years after the wall gent together posed an unexpect- a generation that was deeply frus- bringing peace, democracy or at It is ironic that, just at a time ers seem to think so. Since longer-term policies. If success- reassurance: rather than offer- This outward-looking orienta- and is now examining how to to engage in such a discussion. top job. came down, the Bundeswehr is edly high challenge. trated by the lack of public sup- least some sort of stability to the when the Bundeswehr had suc- Russia illegally annexed ful, NATO will become a much ing mere promises of support, tion has also been reaffirmed by adapt its political decision-taking The issue at stake is not to offer But there is more to it than more uncertain than ever about Fourthly, the Bundeswehr has port for the Afghanistan mission. region, soon turned into a combat cessfully transformed itself into ICrimea and started to destabilize more agile Alliance: with more NATO is now moving to pro- new initiatives to further deepen processes to ambiguous warning Russia a face-saving exit from party politics and the personal its strategic purpose. been struggling with becoming a The Bundeswehr is firmly estab- mission that never gained wide an expeditionary force and dem- Eastern Ukraine, one can read military muscle, more rapid deci- tect its geographically exposed NATO’s relations with its partner situations, for example by pre- its attempt to re-write the rules ambitions of some individuals. Second, Germany still has to professional army that is attrac- lished in German society. Yet, the popular support back home. onstrated that it is able to sus- about NATO’s alleged “rejuve- sion taking, and with even closer member states through concrete countries. As ISAF, which used delegating the authority to initiate of the European order by force. The way the shortcomings of demonstrate how it will fulfill tive to young men and women fact that it was not an intrinsic Increasingly, the purpose tain a significant presence in a nation,” “revival” or new-found links to the broader international defense plans and tangible mili- to act as a major catalyst for certain crisis response measures to Rather, it is about organizing the German military are debated the bold commitment made by after conscription was suspended part of the old Federal Republic of the Bundeswehr was called remote and hostile environment, sense of purpose as a collective community. However, achieving tary arrangements. This resurrec- cooperation, has come to an end, the Supreme Allied Commander European security after the end and scandalized indicate that they both Ursula von der Leyen and in 2011. Given the dramatic resonates in many debates until into question. No federal gov- that approach is being all but defense framework. this kind of Alliance will require tion of deterrence will also have NATO Allies have set in train Europe (SACEUR). Other ele- of the post-Cold War era. Despite are a welcome distraction from Foreign Minister Frank-Walter demographic changes Germany today. When the new German ernment dared to increase the abandoned. The strategic focus If only it were so easy. Stalin the Allies not only to learn some to encompass the nuclear domain. new initiatives to enhance mili- ments are an increased emphasis its renewed focus on protecting its the still unresolved question of Steinmeier at the 2014 Munich faces and its, by European stan- army was set up in 1955, the defense budget. The maintenance is shifting again. And the ques- may indeed have helped the cre- new lessons, but also to rediscover In light of Russian nuclear tary interoperability with part- on cyber defense, strategic com- members, NATO must be more what the Bundeswehr’s premier Security Conference – to assume dards, relatively low unemploy- democratic state it was to serve of existing equipment was being tion of an appropriate role for ation of the Alliance, but it is some old lessons that had almost threats and the vigorous mod- ners, while some partners were munications, and cooperation than just an innocent bystander mission ought to be. And it is more responsibility in world ment rate, this is a challenge that was already six years old. The neglected. the Bundeswehr is back on the far from certain whether Putin’s gotten lost. ernization of its nuclear forces, also offered support in defense with other institutions. Enhancing in such a debate. not only decision makers in gov- affairs. Within Germany, the won’t go away. Wiederbewaffnung (rearma- Even though Afghanistan is agenda. n policies will have a similar effect. Among the old lessons that the Allies will have to examine capacity building. the ties between NATO and the The massive changes in the ernment and parliament that are promise was widely understood Finally, the Bundeswehr is ment), only ten years after the hardly ever mentioned in the Russia is not the Soviet Union, NATO needs to relearn is that EU offers the greatest synergies in European security landscape keen to avoid the tough questions. – or misunderstood – as an appeal undergoing an often neglected end of World War II, was highly German debate on the G36 Journalist Eric Chauvistré has reported nor can NATO afford to turn a geography still matters. In this regard. since the spring of 2014 make There is a deep-rooted reluctance to boost its military engagements. generational shift. Young officers, controversial. assault rifle, it may in fact be extensively on the Afghanistan conflict and has spent time embedded with German blind eye to an increasingly vol- order not to antagonize Russia, NATO has With respect to Russia, NATO past statements about NATO’s in the general public to discuss Thirdly, doubts about Ger- whose ideas of a modern fighting To engage in missions more about that mission thatn Bundeswehr troops serving in the ISAF atile security landscape around NATO’s post-Cold War enlarge- remains in a “wait-and-see” mode: 2010 Strategic Concept being the the future role of its armed forces many’s equipment are par- force were formed in Afghanistan, abroad, half a century later the about the rifle itself. When the mission there. and beyond Europe’s periphery. In ment process was designed in started to review its Russia’s continuing denial to be “blueprint for the next decade” short, despite the Russia challenge, a militarily “soft” way. In the a warring party in the Ukraine appear overly optimistic. As a the Alliance cannot simply return 1997 NATO Russia Founding intelligence-sharing and crisis allows for nothing more result, some observers expect that to the well-established patterns of Act the Allies stated that they than a minimalist (and rather the 2016 Warsaw summit will not Cold War-type territorial defense. did not foresee the permanent political decision-taking terse) dialogue. While Russia’s only showcase key elements of As globalization continues, circling deployment of substantial combat assertive behavior is not likely to the Readiness Action Plan, such the wagons will not be enough. forces on the territory of the new processes. change anytime soon, the need as the Very High Readiness Joint NATO’s initial reflexes after member states. The Readiness for the West and Russia to have Task Force, but will also take a Russia’s incursion into Ukraine Action Plan (RAP) remains in line a more comprehensive discussion decision to start work on a new were eminently sound: Allies, with this commitment. It puts the the implications of these devel- Finally, the United States’ about European security remains Strategic Concept. notably the United States, quickly emphasis on the ability to rapidly opments for their own nuclear “pivot” to Asia and, accord- as urgent as ever. Such a document may attract enhanced their military presence deploy forces to the most exposed policy and posture. This exer- ingly, its focus on missions out- One reason is NATO’s crisis much public interest, but it in Central and Eastern Europe in Allies rather than on stationing cise will require member states side Europe, will continue. While management role: as a perma- hardly seems a priority. Keep- place order to demonstrate NATO’s force there. Instead, regular exer- to demonstrate much intellectual the Ukraine crisis reaffirmed the nent member of the UN Security ing Allies from walking away political and military solidarity cises and rotational deployments discipline, lest they risk a replay crucial role of the United States as Council, Russia can veto NATO’s from their commitments to fully with its most exposed member in Central and Eastern Europe of past controversies. a provider of military reassurance stabilization missions. Another implement the RAP appears far where everyone states. Cooperation with Russia will create a semi-permanence Some may welcome the re- for Europe, a major reinforce- reason is the European archi- more important, as does keeping was suspended, but opportunities that provides those Allies with emphasis on collective defense as ment of the US military presence tecture: It is obvious that the them committed to their pledge for high-level political dialogue an entirely new level of military a convenient excuse for lowering in Europe is unlikely. In sum, initial post-Cold War approach to increase defense spending, and should be safe. remained. protection. their “expeditionary” ambitions, the Allies will try to square the of enlarging established West- approaching the pending debates The Wales Summit in Septem- However, implementing the yet the need to address contin- circle by ensuring that changes in ern institutions while at the same on enlargement and Russia ber 2014 produced a “Readi- RAP is expensive: keeping forces gencies at Europe’s periphery and NATO’s force posture to bolster time building a special relation- with realism. At the same time, ness Action Plan,” comprising on high alert, conducting more beyond will not vanish with the collective defense will not happen ship with Russia is no longer an Allies must avoid a bifurcation a package of measures aimed at frequent exercises, and build- end of ISAF. The US-led coali- at the expense of their expedition- option, as it always depended on of NATO into a Northeastern enhancing the ability of NATO ing new support structures will tion against the Islamic State (IS) ary capabilities. Russian acquiescence if not full group of Allies that focuses on forces to quickly deploy to the create considerable financial indicates as much: Although not In Ukraine, Russia has pro- acceptance. At the same time, no Russia and a Southern group that boundaries of the Alliance, be burdens. Politically, as well, the acting in a NATO framework, vided a textbook example of alternative structure appears fea- focuses on instability in North it in a crisis at NATO’s East or RAP has its share of challenges. many Allies are part of that coali- hybrid (“non-linear”) warfare: sible. Given Russia’s opposition Africa and the Middle East. Such South. Allies also underscored Several NATO allies in Central tion, conducting airstrikes, sup- the rapid concentration of regu- to the enlargement of NATO and a regionalization would weaken their continued cooperation with and Eastern Europe are likely to plying military equipment, and lar forces at Ukraine’s border, the the EU into its “zone of privileged NATO just at a time when it partner countries and other orga- push for more “permanence” in offering training and other assis- employment of unmarked special interests” (Dmitri Medvedev) the needs to be strong. “All for one nizations, bringing home that the deployed NATO units on their tance to countries in the region. forces on Crimea, support for West will have to seek a formula and one for all” is still the best end of ISAF in Afghanistan means soil than initially foreseen. At In addition, NATO’s other separatists in Eastern Ukraine, that takes legitimate Russian formula to cope with the chal- neither the end of partnership nor the same time, allies in NATO’s missions, ranging from coun- an increase in the gas price and interests into account without lenges at hand. n of expeditionary engagements. Southern Region will insist that ter piracy operations (“Ocean a massive propaganda campaign relegating certain NATO and EU Finally, Allies also pledged to the Alliance’s defensive measures Shield”) in the Gulf of Aden to that sought to obscure the events aspirants to a zone of limited increase their defence budgets be balanced and not focus exclu- the training mission in Afghani- on the ground. This kind of war- sovereignty. Michael Rühle is Head of the Energy Security Section in NATO’s Emerging with a view to reaching 2 percent sively on a potential threat from stan (“Resolute Support”), will fare cannot be deterred merely by In this broader discussion, Security Challenges Division. of their GDP. the east. continue, underlining the need to the threat of force. NATO would only be one player The views expressed are his own. Serving 85 million customers in more than 70 countries.

SA spying in Germany, quarrels over the trade agree with Merkel. In the US only 40 percent approve of At Allianz we value an open agreement (TTIP) and (somewhat) opposing Obama’s handling of the relationship and 38 percent of dialogue and thus believe in Nviews on how to deal with the Ukraine crisis Strong ties between Merkel’s role. strong transatlantic relationships. – there is plenty of potential for conflict in US-German Both countries share a rather comfortable view on TTIP, As one of the leading insurers relations. However, strong majorities in both countries 36 percent of Germans are not in favor of an agreement, 21 worldwide, we know that honest consider themselves reliable allies. Germany and the US percent of Americans do not like it. The countries however, conversation and trust are the The PEW Research Center and the German Bertels- disagree in their disagreement. In the US, people mostly fear key to security across the globe. mann Foundation conducted a survey to assess the state job losses and lower wages (50 percent), while Germans are of relations between the US and Germany, published chiefly concerned with lower food, auto and environmental allianz.com in May. safety standards (61 percent). Roughly seven-in-ten Americans consider Germany as The two countries have a different take on important ny a reliable ally, about six-in-ten Germans have trust in the events in US-German relations in the last 75 years. 47 ma US. Some 57 percent of Germans say their country’s ties percent of Americans consider World War II and the With youyou fromfrom A-ZA-Z to the US are more important than its ties to Russia (15 Holocaust to be the most important event. Only 20 percent). However, 59 percent of Americans believe the percent of Germans think so. The Fall of the Berlin EU is not tough enough with Russia on Ukraine while Wall (34 percent) is the most important event in their © Allianz SE, Ger only 26 percent of Germans believe the EU should be view. Another 20 percent of Germans think highly of the more forceful. These numbers correlate with the positions Marshall Plan, only 3 percent of Americans share that concerning Germany playing a more active military role. view. The monitoring of Angela Merkel’s cellphone is 54 percent support the notion in the US, while only 25 per- considered to be an important event by 7 percent in the cent of Germans want their country to assert itself more. FOTOLIA/ERNESOMN1 US and 12 percent in Germany. Germans have a higher opinion of both President Barack Equally, 50 percent in the US and Germany believe their Obama and Chancellor Angela Merkel dealing with US- countries should concentrate on domestic rather than for- German relations. 59 percent like Obama, 71 percent eign problems. LL 8 June/July 2015 June/July 2015 9 Beijing’s legal alchemy Mischief reefs China is not reclaiming land, it is building artificial islands as forward staging bases for its military China’s new strategy and its behaviour in the South China Sea reveal its expansionist intentions | By Felix Lee By Carlyle Thayer he first lines sound harmless islands”. And, the paper continues, the But the Americans are much better ver since last year when tical miles of the artificial islands overflight of naval vessels and enough. In late May, the Chi- change in military strategy comes in at selling their policies to the outside satellite imagery con- and US military aircraft have not aircraft as well as fishermen in nese leadership in Beijing pre- response to this. world. They present themselves as reli- firmed that China was Spratly Islands directly overflown these features the area. For example, there are sented a white paper outlining Although the reefs themselves do not able partners in alliances with small constructing artificial All of the Spratly Islands are claimed then Chinese legal alchemy will current reports that a Chinese Ta new strategy for the development of serve any practical uses, it is thought nations, while China comes over as a islandsE in the South China Sea, by China, Taiwan and Vietnam; part of have succeeded. warship fired at Filipino fisher- its armed forces. The document speaks that there are large reserves of crude bully challenging them over their terri- journalists, security specialists them are claimed by Malaysia and the The second issue concerns the men near one of China’s artifi- of “active defense” and the “expansion oil and natural gas beneath the seabed. tory. While US Defense Secretary Carter Philippines. Brunei has a maritime claim and even government officials in the area. The US does not recognize equivalency of China’s so-called cial islands. of the military for exclusively peaceful But above all, the South China Sea is conceded at the Singapore meeting that uncritically have adopted termi- these claims and considers the sove- land reclamation with similar China’s construction activi- purposes”. At first glance, the govern- strategically important. In the course of other states were also establishing out- nology that obfuscates rather than reignty of the islands to be in dispute. efforts by Vietnam, Malaysia ties have affected regional peace ment appears still to be adhering closely the rapid economic expansion of China posts in the region, he defended these clarifies the issues at stake. No 0 25 50 75 kilometers and the Philippines. China argues and stability because of China’s to the doctrine set out by China’s great and South East Asia over the past 20 actions by saying that China had gone term has been so abused as “land that the other claimants upset the repeated statements that the arti- reformer Deng Xiaoping in the early years, it has in the meantime become the much further, and that it was laying 0 25 50 75 nautical miles reclamation” both in its everyday status long ago and China is only ficial islands will serve defense 1980s: the defense of the nation’s own world’s busiest maritime trading route. claim to a much larger area than the usage and legal meaning. catching up. The critical question purposes. China has repeatedly borders and coastal waters. He rejected More than half of global tanker traffic others. Beijing is feeling increasingly A commentary written by Chi- is what activities have been car- proclaimed its right unilaterally an aggressive foreign policy. now passes through these waters. forced into a corner by Washington’s nese academic Shen Dingli argues ried out since 2002 and for what to declare and enforce an Air But other choices of phrase make the The German government has also now policy stance. that there is no prohibition in purpose? Defence Identification Zone over reader sit up and take notice: Suddenly recognized the gravity of the situation. Indeed, the US takes every opportu- international law about land rec- The Philippines has carried out the South China Sea. A Chinese there is mention of “China’s military Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen, nity to needle China. It regularly sends lamation. He cites the examples land reclamation on Palawan. commentator has gone so far presence beyond national borders,” who was also present at the Singapore aircraft and naval vessels dangerously of Shanghai city, Japan’s Kansai Palawan is a naturally formed to argue China should confront of a “combination of offshore waters meeting, stressed that the crises in Asia close to Chinese territory, even close to Under construction: Fiery Cross Reef International Airport, Hong Kong land feature and qualifies as an Australian military aircraft flying defense and open seas protection,” And were also relevant to Germany and the Chinese coast, thereby demonstrat- and Gaven Reef (below). and Dubai. None of these exam- island under international law. over the airspace above China’s that China’s leadership will give greater Europe. “We live in a globalized world, ing that despite bolstering its arsenals on ples are comparable to what it The Philippines has sovereignty artificial islands and if necessary importance to the navy and air force first in which we also create access to wealth a massive scale in recent years, China’s taking place in the South China over Palawan and therefore may shoot them down. and foremost. According to the docu- through free trade,” she said, adding military continues to be no match for its Sea. legally reclaim land for whatever China has reportedly ceased ment, these will concentrate on “both that secure and stable relations were a US counterpart. Let’s be clear: China is not purpose. “land reclamation” on four of its defense and attack” in the future. So prerequisite for this. In mid-May, one such scenario was reclaiming land in the South China The case of Vietnam is different. features and moved to consolidate what is this then? A defensive military China claims almost the entire South made public when the US military took Sea in order to improve conditions Satellite imagery of Vietnamese- its presence by building piers, policy, or an aggressive one after all? China Sea as its territory and cites his- a team of CNN reporters along on a on a land feature – an island – that occupied Sand Cay and West harbors and multi-storey build- A reality check of recent months tory in justification: the area was already surveillance flight over the South China has deteriorated due the impact of London Reef, published by the ings. The construction of a 3,110 shows: it is highly likely that a momen- under Chinese control back in the 14th Sea. The reporters were able to capture the environment or human use. Asia Maritime Transparency meter long runway on Fiery Cross tous paradigm shift is taking place in century, says Beijing. On official Chi- the moment when the Chinese military China is dredging sand from the Initiative (AMTI), indicates that Reef coupled with reports that a Chinese foreign policy. It appears to be nese maps these borders run through bombarded the aircraft with threats via seabed and coral reefs to create since 2010 Vietnam has expanded similar airstrip will be built at anything other than peaceful. regions that are practically visible from radio. “Such activities can lead to misun- artificial islands. China mislead- these features by 21,000 and Subi Reef provide the infrastruc- The clearest evidence of China’s new the coastlines of other countries. All of derstandings and accidents,” a nervous

ingly states it is reclaiming land 65,000 square meters, respec- ture to support the deployment military strategy can currently be seen (2) PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/HO China’s neighbors reject this geographical representative of the Chinese People’s on islands over which it has sover- tively. Does size matter? Journal- of all types of military aircraft in in the island dispute currently going on perspective. Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Liberation Army could be heard saying. eignty. This is not the case. China ists, academic commentators and China’s current inventory. Sud- in the South China Sea. Satellite images other things, a 3,000-meter landing rescue operations, disaster control, Brunei and the Philippines view China’s Analysts from the independent think is building artificial structures on government officials are quick to denly and at short notice China taken by the US think tank the Center strip for military jets on this manmade marine exploration, weather forecast- artificial islands as an aggression. tank IHS Jane’s are still talking about low tide elevations (submerged note that the scope and scale of can transform ostensibly civilian for Strategic and International Studies land. “We all know that there is no ing and environmental protection, said But China’s leadership views Vietnam, a “PR war over the South China Sea”. features at high tide) and rocks. China construction dwarfs that of and scientific facilities into - for (CSIS) shocked South China Sea nations military solution to the South China Sea Admiral Sun Jianguo, deputy chief of which is also a Communist nation, first But they warn: military upgrading and China cannot claim sovereignty the other claimants. Vietnam’s so- ward staging bases for military at the beginning of the year. The photos, disputes,” US Defense Secretary Ashton staff of the People’s Liberation Army, and foremost as an aggressor. This is increasingly bellicose verbal threats are over these features. These features called land reclamation amounts operations. taken in the area of the disputed Spratly Carter reprimanded the Chinese in late also at the Shangri-La Dialogue. He because the Vietnamese are also creating raising the risk of actual military engage- are not entitled to maritime zones to 1.9 percent of the area built The third issue relates to the Islands archipelago, show dozens of May at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Sin- also criticized what he described as the their own islands, thereby reinforcing ment. “The prospect of a naval battle

or airspace. WIKIPEDIA/RONHJONES by China. impact on the marine environment freighters loaded with excavators tip- gapore, Asia’s most important security aggressive actions of neighboring coun- their own claim to these marine territo- between China and the US is becoming Artificial islands have a dis- None of these commentators, by China’s construction activities. ping sand and rubble onto the reefs conference. tries. In its defense white paper, Beijing ries – with the support of the US. Ever a potential threat,” they say. n tinct meaning in international including the AMTI, have put As a signatory to UNCLOS China and sandbanks, and securing them with China rejected criticism of its island accuses “several” neighbors of provoca- since US President Barack Obama turned law. Under the United Nations “land reclamation” in the South is bound to protect the marine concrete to create new islands. building project. Beijing simply wanted tive behavior, claiming that they had his attentions to the Pacific region three Felix Lee is China correspondent for the Berlin Convention on the Law of the China Sea in proper context. Sec- environment. Chinese officials Members of the US military are con- to be better able to fulfill its “inter- been “reinforcing their military presence years ago, tensions with China have been newspaper taz and lives in Beijing. He also runs Sea (UNCLOS) sovereignty over retary of Defense Ashton Carter’s repeatedly claim that they have vinced that China is building, among national obligations,” such as in sea on illegally occupied Chinese reefs and considerably heightened. the China blog on Zeit Online. artificial islands can only be exer- call for Vietnam to halt “land taken into account the environ- cised by a coastal state in its reclamation” is misguided. The mental impact of their construc- Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). litmus test is not the extent of arti- tion activities and no harm is Article 56 states, “In the exclusive ficial construction but the intent being done. China’s assertions economic zone, the coastal State behind this construction. China are challenged by Phillipine offi- has…jurisdiction… with regard and all of the other claimants are cials as well as marine scientists. to ... the establishment and use signatories to the non-binding Satellite imagery clearly shows of artificial islands, installations Declaration on Conduct of Parties dredging marks on coral reefs and structures…” Article 60 gives in the South China Sea (DOC) adjacent to where China is build- the coastal state “exclusive right agreed to in November 2002. ing artificial islands. to construct… artificial islands.” Under the DOC the signatories No, China is not reclaiming And Article 80 extends this pro- agreed “to exercise self-restraint land. China is building forward vision to artificial islands on a in the conduct of activities that staging bases on artificial islands coastal state’s continental shelf. would complicate or escalate dis- for its fishing fleet, oil and gas All seven of the features that Johnson Reef South. putes and affect peace and stabil- exploration vessels and mari- PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/HO China presently occupies and has ity…” Quite clearly none of the time law enforcement vessels. converted into artificial islands In summary, China considers water surrounding these arti- and signatories to UNCLOS are land reclamation undertaken by When China completes building are the subject of legal proceed- these features to be islands in the ficial islands and the airspace enjoined not to take actions that the Philippines or enlargement its infrastructure, including long ing brought by the Philippines legal sense and therefore claims above these features. Chinese would change the status quo. carried out by Vietnam rises to the range radar, it will be only a before the UN’s Arbitral Tribu- not only sovereignty over them law requires the promulgation of China’s assertions of sovereign point of complicating or escalat- matter of time before military nal. The Philippines Notification but a territorial sea, EEZ, conti- baseline prior to the assertion of rights in these circumstances rep- ing disputes and affecting peace aircraft and naval warships make and Statement of Claim argued nental shelf and airspace above sovereign jurisdiction over mari- resent a form of legal alchemy in and stability in the South China their appearance. that under UNCLOS Mischief them. The Philippines argues time zones. With the exception which China attempts to convert Sea. In sum, China has succeeded Reef, McKennan Reef, Gaven that these features are submerged of the Paracels, China has not submerged features and rocks into China’s actions, on the other in legal alchemy by transform- Reef and Subi Reef are submerged banks, reefs and low tide eleva- promulgated any baseline over naturally formed islands. hand, have complicated dis- ing UNCLOS into “international features and both Mischief Reef tions that do not qualify as islands the features it occupies. China has repeatedly challenged putes. China’s construction of law with Chinese characteristics.” and McKennan Reef form part of under UNCLOS but are part of It should be noted that all flights by military aircraft from artificial islands directly sub- This development will bolster the Philippines’ continental shelf. the Philippines continental shelf, of China’s artificial islands are the Philippines and the United verts UNCLOS and represents China’s assertion of “indisput- Further, the Philippines argued or the international seabed. located close to features occupied States ordering them to leave a preemptive move against any able sovereignty” over the South that Scarborough Shoal, John- The issue of China’s construc- by Vietnam. If these features were what Chinese military officials decision by the Arbitral Tribu- China Sea. China is slowly and son Reef, Fiery Cross Reef and tion of artificial islands has been entitled to a 12 nautical mile ter- call a “military alert area” or a nal. China has changed “facts deliberately excising the maritime Cuarteron Reef are rocks under befuddled by three other issues. ritorial sea China’s zone would “military security zone.” If media on the ground” and presented heart out of Southeast Asia. n UNCLOS. All of these features The first issue concerns China’s overlap a similar zone claimed by reports are accurate that United the region with a fait accom- Carlyle A. Thayer is Emeritus Professor lie within the Philippines’ EEZ or attempt to enforce its jurisdic- Vietnam. The bottom line is that States warships have refrained pli. China is already challenging at the Australian Defence Force Academy, continental shelf. tion over 12 nautical miles of all of these features are contested from encroaching within 12 nau- the freedom of navigation and Canberra.

continued from page 1 seven of these reefs into artificial to its perspective; yet those coun- islands, thereby gaining 1,500 tries increasingly seek protection Publisher: Detlef W. Prinz acres of new land alone this under the US umbrella. Creating Executive Editor: Theo Sommer year. It is building runways for a platform on which the Asian- Editors in Chief: Peter H. Koepf, Rafael Seligmann military aircraft, harbor facili- Pacific nations could tackle the Senior Editor: Rüdiger Rossig The ties for its navy, and according region’s problems would seem Associate Editors: Klaus Grimberg, Kevin Lynch ® Art Director: Paul M. Kern to some reports has deployed to be the first task of diplomacy; AMTRON Associate Art Director: Manuel Schwartz artillery. Already the Chinese a security framework, that can limits of ® Layout: Mike Zastrow navy has begun to warn off US establish rules of the road, a code by MENNEKES . Translation: Kate Abbott, Nina Coon, Amanda Crain, Nicolas Kumanoff, David Strauss summitry surveillance planes overflying of conduct for all and ensure the Spratly Islands. The escala- compliance to boot. The Arctic “The wall box – designed for the Founding Editor: Bruno Waltert tory potential of these actions Council provides the model of a “Charged“ Managing Director: Gudrun Heinze – which the Chinese call “fair, forum where all coastal states, Advertising & Marketing: Janine Kulbrok Middle East could be ended with- both currently fueling proxy continental trade routes. Massive reasonable and lawful” – is quite claimants or not, can address the with ideas. mobility of the future.“ Head of Special Editions: Rainer Bieling out Russian support. The West wars between Sunni and Shia Chinese investments in the infra- frightening. issues of common concern. Printed in Springfield, VA. by Gannett Offset has no promising military option from Mesopotamia to Yemen. As structure of the countries along In the East China Sea, where The world would be a better © Times Media GmbH, Berlin. The Atlantic Times is an international in its fight with the Islamic State long as their rivalry for regional these two trade corridors have China claims the Senkaku/ place, if true diplomacy would registered trademark. All rights reserved. (IS). Containment of the threat hegemony runs on unabated, the worrisome ramifications, how- Diaoyutai islands administered once again replace grandstand- Publishing House, Editorial emanating from the violent frag- Middle East will remain a cru- ever – for India, but in the longer by Japan, the US has already ing; if accommodation were Department and Advertising: MENNEKES Elektrotechnik GmbH & Co. KG mentation of both Syria and Iraq cible of violence. term also for Russia. made it clear that it will come to not reflexively be denigrated Times Media GmbH • The Atlantic Times Industrial plugs and sockets Tempelhofer Ufer 23-24 requires Russia’s assistance – and The Asia-Pacific region is a dif- At the same time, China’s claim Tokyo’s aid in case of conflict. as appeasement; and if foreign 10963 Berlin, Germany Aloys-Mennekes-Str. 1 | D-57399 Kirchhundem Tel. 01149 30-2150-5400 not only Russia’s. Other regional ferent story again. Under Presi- to about 1 million square kilo- Regarding the South China Sea, policy were driven by hope rather Fax 01149 30-2150-5447 Telephone +49 (0) 2723 / 41-1 | Fax +49 (0) 2723 / 41-214 [email protected] and global actors will have to get dent Xi Jinping, Beijing has begun meters in the waters of the South the US has not yet given a similar than fear. As Winston Churchill New York Office: involved in the effort to crush to translate its economic weight China Sea keeps tensions rising promise, but the risks of confron- once put it: “Fear must never be E-Mail [email protected] | www.MENNEKES.com Walter Pfaeffle 340 East 64th Street Apt 16G radical jihadism, amongst them into geopolitical clout. The objec- in the region. Many of the islets, tation keep growing. allowed to cast out hope.” n New York, NY 10065 Tel. (212) 755-5236 Turkey and Iran, Saudi Arabia tive of its “One Belt, One Road” atolls, reefs, shoals and sandbars The problem is that no secu- Fax (212) 755-5237 [email protected] and the rest of the gulf states. initiative is to develop the old inside the “nine-dash line” are rity architecture exists in the Most consequential in this con- Silk Road to the Middle East and also claimed by Vietnam, Malay- region comparable to the one Theo Sommer is the executive editor of The Atlantic Times Publishing deadline: June 19, 2015 text would be a rapprochement Europe and the new “Maritime sia, Brunei and the Philippines. in Europe. Beijing expects the Digital edition: www.atlantic-times.com and former editor of the German between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Silk Road” to the West into inter- Beijing has now started to turn other littoral countries to defer weekly Die Zeit.

AMTRON_290x260_Juni15.indd 1 08.06.2015 13:34:23 10 June/July 2015 11

Islamic State fighters pose on an anti-aircraft vehicle on Aug. 7, 2014 after seizing a Syrian army Al Qaeda hasn’t gone away military base near the city of Raqqa. No sign of victory Despite the rise of IS, it remains a more dangerous opponent for the West The proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia is creating instability in half the By Guido Steinberg Middle East – and will probably continue for years to come | By Markus Bickel

efore the Iraqi terror organization moved quickly to force back ISI until it appeared been working on safeguarding its own survival he May 22nd suicide attack on the cast doubts on the Al-Saud dynasty’s exclusive turned a blind eye to the suppression of the known as ISIS and IS came to the to have been almost totally vanquished in 2008. independently of the fate of the leadership in Shi’ite Imam Ali mosque in Eastern claim to represent the nation in such a way Saudi population. world’s attention, it had been fight- But ISI survived, as a small but very strong ter- Pakistan. Al Qaeda “branches” were set up in Saudi Arabia has changed every- as the fighters of the IS caliph Abu Bakr al- That could all be over by the end of this ing for almost a decade as a regional rorist organization. It profited from the American Saudi Arabia in 2003, in Iraq in 2004, Algeria thing. For the first time, the “Islamic Bagdadi. Dozens of IS cells have been crushed summer: The international comeback of the organizationB of Al Qaeda. From 2004 to 2006, withdrawal that began in 2009 and was com- in 2007 and Yemen in 2009. And while Iraqi Al TState” terrorist group managed to attack a since it rose to become the most significant Islamic Republic under the Supreme Leader of it called itself “al Qaeda in Mesopotamia.” pleted in late 2011. But even more significant Qaeda broke away in 2013 to become a rival and religious building in the country that is the cus- Sunni force in Syria and Iraq between Jeddah the revolution Ayatollah Ali Khameini would This caused some confusion in 2013 and 2014, were the policies of the Shiite-dominated Iraqi enemy, the Yemeni subsidiary not only turned out todian of the Muslim holy sites of Mecca and and Dharan – but the Saudis still failed to inevitably create a situation where the Arab when it became increasingly clear that not only government led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, to be absolutely loyal to the Al Qaeda leadership, Medina – and killed 21 people in the process. prevent the attack on the Imam-Ali mosque states would increasingly take a back seat in did Al Qaeda and IS represent fundamentally who used his extended powers to eradicate with which it maintained close contacts, but also This was the most serious attack on Shi’ites in al-Qadeeh in May and the Shi’ite al-Anoud strategic terms. Already, the petro-dollars different jihadist schools of thought, but when Sunnis from the nation’s political system. Late assumed the role of a parent organization in the in the history of the kingdom. The sectarian mosque in Dammam one week later. are unable to halt the insidious decline of IS began openly to fight against al Qaeda and 2011 saw the start of a concerted campaign of battle against the US. conflict fueled by the regional powers of Saudi As in Iraq and Syria, where the royal family the Sunni dictatorships, which solely rely its allies in Syria. persecution against Sunni politicians and many In 2009 and 2010 it attempted to detonate Arabia and Iran for years has now reached the departed from its traditional policy of check- on repression and state handouts. The tri- But as early as 2004, the association with Al civilians detained without trial in their thousands. bombs on transatlantic flights shortly before heartland of the Sunni world – and raised the book diplomacy last summer and attacked IS umphant progress made by “Islamic State” Qaeda could barely conceal the fact that this was The Iraqi government lost all support in Sunni the planes landed in the US; the explosives confrontation between the Shi’ite regime in positions with its own fighter aircraft, Salman threatens the stability of the Arab world from a marriage of convenience. Iraqi Al Qaeda and its regions of the country, where ISI were increas- were detected at the last minute during en Iran and Riyadh to a new level. is now using military might against Tehran’s Morocco to the Gulf. founder Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was never subor- ingly able to recruit and operate without fear of route stopovers. Al Qaeda in Yemen eventu- The province of Ash Sharqiya in the eastern allies. The Saudi air force, which is com- Saudi Arabia’s allies have been weakened dinate to Bin Laden and the Al Qaeda leadership recriminations. ally scored a major coup in January 2015: It part of Saudi Arabia, where all the important manded by his son Mohammed Bin Salman both politically and militarily in all the loca- in Pakistan, but rather pursued their own goals The number of attacks and victims steadily had trained at least one of the two attackers oil facilities are located, is the kingdom’s vul- as defense minister, has been bombarding the tions where they are competing with Tehran’s and strategies, for which they wanted to make increased from 2012; ISI gained in strength. who murdered journalists working at the nerable point. Concern that the many Saudi Zaidist Houthi rebels in Yemen since March. followers. Riyadh failed to strengthen the use of recruits and cash from the Gulf region. It captured Fallujah in late 2013, followed by satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in Paris. Shi’ites living here could act as a Sunni tribes in Iraq, which are Al Qaeda on the other hand was going through Mosul in June 2014, until large swathes of After 10 years, Al Qaeda had yet again car- “fifth column” for Iran has been promoting the establishment of a a weak phase at the time, and the fealty of the western and northwestern Iraq were under jihadi ried out a successful attack on European soil. worrying the ruling elite around national guard to create a coun- Iraqis helped it to generate the impression that control. IS triumphs in Iraq and Syria and the many King Salman for years. “Islamic State” terweight to the Shia-dominated Al Qaeda was a network that spanned the globe. The start of the civil war in neighboring attacks by sympathizers of the group in the The almost three million follow- threatens the stability of army and the militias financed by That the disputes emerging in 2005 did not lead Syria furthered this development, as ISI also West had almost managed to obscure Al ers of the Shi’ite minority, on the Iran. Like the Sunni stronghold of to an immediate rupture was primarily to do celebrated successes there. The organization Qaeda’s enduring strength. This strength will other hand, feel discriminated by the Arab world from Tikrit, Ramadi, the capital of the with the fact that contact between Pakistan and did not make any public appearances until continue to endure. This is first and foremost the strict Wahhabite interpretation province of Anbar on the border Iraq was broken off and both organizations were April 2013, but instead supported an offshoot due to the group’s strategy, which is more of the Sunni teachings by the ruling Morocco to the Gulf. with Saudi Arabia, will probably fighting for their survival in the ensuing years. calling itself the Nusra Front (The Support pragmatic. It is primarily focused on the battle class. “I believe the government is be reconquered by Shi’ite popu- It was only when both groupings supported Front for the People of Al-Sham). The group with the West, which it aims to weaken in a responsible for the attack,” said lar mobilization forces (Hashed the same local jihadists in the Syrian civil war was founded by Syrian members of ISI and protracted war of attrition. activist Nasima al Sada, who is based in the Riyadh views the supporters of the liberal Shaabi), not by state forces. The Sunni allies that they came into renewed contact with each also copied the car bomb attacks of its Iraqi Its long-term goal is also to establish an mainly Shi’ite city of Qatif, just a few kilome- Shi’ite movement as followers of Iran, even of Riyadh no longer have a voice in the largest other. The conflict was overlaid with a battle parent organization. But its strategy followed “Islamic state”, but it believes attempts to do this ters from the village of al-Qadeeh where the if Tehran’s influence on the “Ansar Allah” Iraqi province. for power and influence and as it progressed, the guidelines of Al Qaeda. In contrast to ISI, it are hugely premature, because the West would suicide attacker detonated his explosives. “It party and its leader Abd al Malik al-Houthi Nor has King Salman so farachieved any of it became apparent that ISIS/IS by no means very pragmatically sought out allies among the today find it easy to destroy such a state. Its should protect us and not promote sermons is far less than on the Hezbollah movement in his goals on the southern flank of the king- viewed itself as part of Al Qaeda, but much Syrian rebels in pursuit of a common goal – the strategy is much more focused on meticulously and textbooks that vilify us as unbelievers.” Lebanon or on Shi’ite militias in Iraq. dom either, even after almost 100 days of air more as an autonomous organization that toppling of the Assad regime. planned, well conceived, high profile attacks Shi’ite believers have increasingly been the Allies of Saudi Arabia and Iran are also strikes against the Houthi, their fighters are was seeking to wrest control of the jihadist The events of April 2013 showed that the such as the one carried out in Paris, aimed at target of the government and the reactionary facing off in Mesopotamia. The proxy war still advancing. Yemen’s President Abd Rabbo movement from Al Qaeda. Nusra Front did indeed align itself with Al Qaeda. provoking an overreaction from the West – or religious police force since the Iranian revolu- between the two regional powers, which has Mansur, who fled to Riyadh in March, has IS success in Iraq and Syria made the group During the previous months, ISI leader Abu Bakr in other words: military interventions in the tion in 1979. Indeed, Saudi security forces in provided additional impetus to the sectar- not been reinstated and his militias have not so attractive that numerous jihadists declared al-Baghdadi had tried in vain to bring the group Muslim world where Al Qaeda is better placed Qatif had to quell protests in the same year for ian conflict between the Shi’ite and Sunni managed to decisively weaken the fighters of their allegiance. Just as many regional orga- into line. In April he announced that he was to continue the battle. To increase its chances the first time. Tensions increased again when teachings, has long since replaced the conflict the “Ansar-Allah” militia led by Abdul Malik nizations joined Al Qaeda after 2001, now dissolving the Syrian organization and merging of success, Al Qaeda relies on allegiances with the uprisings in the Arab world aroused hopes between moderate and extremist forces, which al Houthi. Not even the massive air strikes IS groups have been forming in Libya, Egypt, it, together with ISI, into a new group called the groups such as the Taliban and tries not to make of political change in a region that is suppressed still dominated politics in the Middle East in have dispelled Riyadh’s fears that Sanaa could Afghanistan and the Caucasus, among other “Islamic State in Iraq and Syria” (ISIS). too many enemies at the same time – which by authoritarian rulers. More than two dozen the glory days of the Palestinian Liberation become the fourth Arab capital to be per- places. In addition from early 2014, many The formation of ISIS led to an open conflict explains its opposition to IS anti-Shiite violence. people were killed in Eastern Province in 2012 Organization (PLO). “Why are you going to manently controlled by Tehran, following volunteer fighters carried out attacks in the between Baghdadi and Zawahiri. The Nusra IS on the other hand perceives itself as being in alone when the police suppressed demonstra- Camp David?” the Iranian Foreign Minister Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut. West in the name of IS. Many commentators Front sought help from the Al Qaeda leader who a world full of enemies, who must either toe the tions in a violent manner. A Sharia court also Javad Zarif said at the end of May, appealing Saudi Arabia’s partners in Lebanon have believed this spelled the end for Al Qaeda. issued the prompt decree that the Nusra Front line or be destroyed as “infidels”. This applies condemned the prominent Shi’ite imam Nimr to his “Saudi brothers” to find a solution at a been on the back foot strategically for years. Although Abu Musab al-Zarqawi publicly should continue to operate in Syria and ISI in Iraq to the US, the West as a whole, the governments Bakir al-Nimr to death in the fall of 2014. regional level. “We’re keen on good relations The Shi’ite militia Hezbollah, supported by joined Al Qaeda in 2004, he never wholly sub- – under the supreme command of Zawahiri. But of the Arab world, the Jews, Christians, Shiites There is nothing new about this policy: fears in contrast to America, which is only pursuing Iran, controls the army and government in mitted to Osama Bin Laden’s leadership. This Baghdadi refused to obey Zawahiri and a power and even Sunnis who do not share their jihadist of being encircled by Iran have dominated its own interests.” Beirut – and it has been preventing the election was already evident in 2005, when Bin Laden’s struggle began in Syria that only came to a tem- interpretation of Islam without reservation. IS the policies pursued by the royal government However, the Arab rulers in the Gulf region of a new president for more than 12 months. deputy and later successor, the Egyptian Aiman porary halt in 2014 when ISIS/IS began fighting supporters want to live in an “Islamic state” and for years. Domestically, concern is primar- not only doubt this – but also worry about Moderate Sunni groups are not gaining the al-Zawahiri, wrote a letter to Zarqawi sharply in the north and east, and the severely weakened have no concerns about deploying any kind of ily directed towards the cities near the tiny Barack Obama’s determination to guarantee upper hand in Lebanon, but the local branch criticizing his approach. The Al Qaeda leadership Nusra Front in the northwest of the country. violence to stabilize this state. island state of Bahrain, where the Sunni King their security in the face of Iran’s expansion- of Al Qaeda, the Nusra Front, and “Islamic was especially perturbed by the brutal attacks on Zawahiri threw ISIS out of the Al Qaeda IS could enjoy lasting success first and foremost Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa keeps the Shi’ite ism. The American president had invited State.” This is all taking place very close to Shiite targets that had become a hallmark of the network in early 2014, whereupon Baghdadi because its jihadist approach is more appealing majority in check. Riyadh already sent troops the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council Israel, which is already facing the possibility Iraqi group. The execution of Western hostages declared himself the Caliph of the Islamic State. than that of Al Qaeda, as evidenced by the influx to Manama’s Pearl Roundabout via the King (GCC) to his country estate at Camp David of the war in Syria spilling over to the Golan – in filmed decapitations arranged by Zarqawi – This resulted in the creation of two enemy camps of foreign recruits and the support of many small Fahd Causeway in March 2011 to restrict in the US state of Maryland. However, four Heights. was also criticized. Instead of creating a climate locked in a bitter duel. groups in the Arab world and South Asia. But Al the spread of the freedom movement by fol- of the six seats reserved for the heads of state Saudi Arabia recently launched a new mili- of horror and fear within the Muslim community It did indeed seem as though Al Qaeda had Qaeda’s strategy is by far the more promising, as lowers there. remained empty – both the kings of Saudi tary initiative in the country that has been with their acts of violence, said Zawahiri, Iraqi passed its zenith in 2014. Intensified perse- it pays heed to its own weaknesses. A terrorist However, protests are continuing, albeit at Arabia and Bahrain and the Sultan of Oman wrecked by civil war for four years to topple Al Qaeda should make efforts to win the support cution since 2001 had put the organization organization cannot take on half the world alone a low level, even four years later. It is not pos- and the emir of Abu Dhabi turned down the the dictator in Damascus, who is allied to of the population. under huge pressure, and it was rarely able and hope for success in such an undertaking. sible to suppress the uprising against the Sunni invitation. They have sensed a lack of sup- Tehran. The successes enjoyed by Sunni mili- But Zarqawi and his followers did not change to carry out high-profile attacks on Western The differing strategies also impact upon the dictatorship permanently through repression port from America for some time – and fear tias in the south and north-west of Syria will their conduct. Shortly after the death of Zarqawi targets – the 2005 London attacks were the threat to Europe presented by both groups. alone – regardless of how strong the influence that Obama’s rapprochement with the Shi’ite probably only lead to an escalation in the in June 2006, they even went a step further by last in Europe for a long while. Because IS is concentrated on the establishment of Iran really is. regime in Iran could undermine their security power struggle with Shi’ite militias and offi- proclaiming the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI) and In 2011, weak spots in the once powerful terror of its “state,” it is first and foremost a danger to The top priority for the ruling family in interests. cers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, demanding that other Iraqi rebel groups fall into organizations became especially apparent: the Iraq, Syria and its neighbors. Al Qaeda on the Riyadh has been to curb this influence since They believe that their role as the most who have rushed to assist the exhausted line with them. This also contradicted Al Qaeda jihadists played absolutely no part at all in the other hand continues to focus on major attacks King Salman became ruler at the beginning important regional allies of the United States army of Bashir al-Assad. So there is no end strategy, which had relied on robust alliances with Arab revolutions, because they had never man- in the Western world and has shown in Paris of the year. The successor to King Abdullah, could be in jeopardy as a result of the positive in sight to the Iranian-Saudi proxy war, even like-minded organizations – first and foremost aged to garner broad popular support. At the that it can succeed in carrying these out. It can be who died in January, has made resistance to nuclear talks in Lausanne, which could lead if agreement is reached at the nuclear talks in with the Taliban – and which had succeeded in same time, the ruthless US drone war in Pakistan assumed that its Yemeni subsidiary is still plan- Iran’s hegemonic ambitions the crucial change to an historic agreement between Washington Vienna at the end of June. On the contrary, the overcoming several problematic phases. Iraqi Al was bearing fruit, ending the lives of most of Al ning attacks on transatlantic flights. This means in his regional policy – in addition to the fight and Tehran in Vienna at the end of June. Their conflicts in Iraq, Yemen and Syria are likely Qaeda formulated a leadership claim that endures Qaeda’s top brass. The killing of Osama Bin that in the near future at least, it represents the against “Islamic State”, which has challenged role was very secure for decades: in return to continue for a long time. n to this day, but that resulted in a bitter defeat in Laden in May 2011 appeared to confirm this most dangerous terrorist threat to Europe. n the country and its 29 million inhabitants like for supplying oil, US presidents had provided Iraq. Faced with the new enemy within their own trend. no other terror organization. protection for the most important trading Markus Bickel is the Cairo correspondent of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and the author ranks, many rebels gave up the armed struggle But by establishing regional organizations in Guido Steinberg is a Middle East expert at the German Not even Al Qaeda, led initially by the routes since the overthrow of Shah Moham- of a book entitled “Der vergessene Nahostkonflikt" and allied themselves with US troops, which the Arab world, Al Qaeda had since 2002 already Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). MEDIA CENTER RAQQA ALLIANCE/AP IMAGES/ PICTURE Saudi-born Osama Bin Laden, managed to med Reza Pahlavi in 1979. And Washington (The Forgotten Conflict in the Middle East, 2011).

Three German writers agree: The US and as the invasion of Iraq in What are the things being done right now? central authority, a display of “remarkable many Iraqis, that amounted to theft. (Even What can the West learn from all this? ibility of those who hail democracy as the The German writers appeal for new its allies blithely destroyed the Sunni- 2003 a good or a bad idea? Flying in special forces now and then to incompetence” (Lüders). a commentator on CNN said as much in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya have demon- best form of government. approaches: Stopping the civil war seems to Shi’ite balance of power in the Middle In May, US presidential Is anarchy worse kidnap or kill IS leaders, such as the group’s 3. The US did not ensure that sectarian 2013: “Yes, the Iraq War was a war for oil, strated that democracy cannot be imposed The West is seeking to support “moder- be achievable only together with Assad. IS East. The gravest result of this imbalance has so far been the Islamic State group. hopeful Jeb Bush did not chief oil dealer Abu Sayyaf on May 16? groups, especially the Shi’ites, were included and it was a war with winners: Big Oil.”) from the outside, and certainly not in states ate” jihadists in their fight against Assad. can likewise be defeated only with Assad’s Unfortunately their books are (so far) yetW have a clear position on that question. By not committing ground forces in Iraq in talks on rebuilding. 8. The US accepted the fact that Saudi without a middle class or civil society. “We That does not help credibility either. Nor help. Quelling both fronts will not be pos- available only in German. His responses have ranged from yes, it than dictatorship? or Syria, the US cannot be defeated there. 4. The US permitted Nuri al-Maliki, Iraq’s Arabia, its most important ally in the region, surely know now from experience that the does it demonstrate that lessons have been sible, they write. Iran, which is already was the right thing, to “knowing what we Drawing the Americans back into the coun- Shi’ite prime minister from 2006 to 2014, did not stop the Sunni tribes over which it overthrow of dictators by force – especially learned. In Afghanistan the mujahideen fighting in northern Iraq against IS, will Rainer Hermann: know now I would not have engaged − I try appears to be Islamic State strategy. Each to persecute and imprison Sunni and secu- has much influence from “entering a pact by outside force – rarely ushers in peace and received arms and training for their fight have to be included in the solution. More Endstation Islamischer Staat? would not have gone into Iraq.” He then The rise of Islamic State and the responsibility of horrific killing of a hostage is another bid to lar politicians and other opponents of the with the devil with IS” (Rainer Hermann). demonstrably better leadership,” writes against the Communist regime and its Soviet broadly, Lüders recommends that “anyone Staatsversagen added, referring to the 4,491 soldiers who lure US troops. A President Jeb Bush or one government. As a result, the Sunnis refused 9. Turkey, a NATO member, apparently Graham E. Fuller, former deputy chairman backers. These fighters later founded Al wanting to see Wahhabism, Al Qaeda and und Religionskrieg lost their lives there: “it was worth it for Washington and its allies for the civil wars from the Democratic Party might consider to defend the Iraqi state against the jihad- has the tacit approval of the US to support of the CIA’s National Intelligence Council. Qaeda and the Taliban. In Peshawar, Paki- ‘Islamic State’ weakened would do well to in der arabischen the people that made major sacrifices.” that option. But why should “the West” ists and allowed IS to take power in Sunni IS, which is fighting three enemies of Turkey “It is beyond the capabilities of US intelli- stan, Osama bin Laden established a “ser- recognize the Muslim Brotherhood as an Welt, dtv, in the Middle East | By Peter H. Koepf 12,90 Euro Germany had a clear answer as far back again set foot on Arab land as an occupier? areas “because their populations hated the at once: the Assad regime, the Shi’ite govern- gence, or any other Western states for that vice office” that funneled Arab fighters to alternative.” as 2003. Then Foreign Minister Joschka To make new mistakes that might not be governments in Baghdad and Damascus ment of Iraq and the Kurds. matter, to gain the complex strategic and the front. He set up a register called “The Steinberg, on the other hand, writes Fischer said no, he was “not convinced” Michael Lüders, who also contributes to furter Allgemeine Zeitung, who accuses reversible? more than IS” (Guido Steinberg). 10. Following Bashar al-Assad’s murder- tactical insight and the instinctive feel to Network,” or Al Qaeda. It was an early that the US should demand a “compro- Michael Lüders: Wer den Wind by the information provided by Secretary this publication. “In which of these states the US of having left Iraq too early. The After the “infidels” took over Iraq in 5. The US banned the secular Baath party ous response to demonstrators demanding successfully manipulate the conflict in the database for jihad and the foundation for mise with the Sunnis” from the new Iraqi sät. Was westliche of State Colin Powell and doctored by US have living conditions for the population Americans had not delivered their prom- 2003, misstep followed mistake. Lüders, and dissolved the Iraqi army. Many Sunnis the rule of law and economic opportuni- directions we want.” his subsequent fight against pro-Western government of Haider al-Abadi and to Politik im Orient intelligence services. Today the German then improved, with better prospects for ises of a stable democracy and economic Hermann and Guido Steinberg of the lost their livelihoods as a result. Many ties, members of the “Friends of the Syrian Seeking the overthrow of a dictator can governments, first and foremost Saudi incorporate them into a new Iraqi national anrichtet, people – and perhaps the majority of stability and security?” he asks. Lüders recovery, he writes. The early pullout in German Institute for International and former generals, officers and soldiers joined People Group” supplied weapons to the be a worthwhile pursuit if there is a suitable Arabia, the US’s closest ally in the region. guard to deny IS their support. In Syria, C. H. Beck, 14,95 Euro Americans as well – feel confirmed in their is convinced that, had Saddam Hussein 2011 made possible the expansion of IS, Security Affairs (SWP) accuse the US and, the resistance to the occupiers, including IS. Syrian opposition, ostensibly to protect successor. But who should succeed Bashar Instead, Jeb Bush seems to be listening to Steinberg says the US is no longer work- doubts. The invasion of Iraq was a disaster. not been toppled, the Islamic State group Hermann says, adding that in both Iraq more broadly, the “Friends of the Syrian 6. The removal of the Saddam Hussein the demonstrators’ lives, but actually to al-Assad? Of the country’s 60 percent Sunni David Frum, senior editor at The Atlantic ing directly for the overthrow of Assad. Guido Steinberg: It cost the lives of one hundred times as would not exist today. “Both Al Qaeda and Syria, whose dictator Washington People Group” (including the “West,” regime “greatly altered the regional balance topple Assad. population, only one group would be in and a former speechwriter in the George W. Yet he calls a continuation of the regime Kalifat des many Iraqis as US troops and spawned a and ‘Islamic State’ have earned the label likewise wanted to remove, the anarchy Turkey and the Gulf States) of committing of power in favor of Iran and Shi’ite Islam” 11. The US has supplied arms to “mod- a position to take over, Michael Lüders Bush administration. Frum writes: “After unacceptable. Schreckens. new, potent enemy that, besides massacring ‘made in USA’” Lüders writes. in some places has proven worse than eleven capital errors: (Rainer Hermann). Iraq and Syria became erate Islamists,” weapons that frequently writes. “Had the dictator really been over- a wrong decision, it’s the job of a leader Hermann is more pessimistic. The Arab IS und die “infidels” in Iraq, has expanded into Syria, Jeb Bush has also registered the rise of the dictatorship. 1. The West has intervened in wars and “the battlefield of the Arab Thirty Years ended up with Al Qaeda or IS, such as the thrown, the jihadists would be in power to retrieve the consequences, not to waste Thirty Years War is still in its early stages, Bedrohung durch den islamistischen Yemen, Libya and elsewhere in Africa. Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS), Now Jeb Bush says the US must “re- conflicts in the Middle East with the stated War of our time,” a “devastating struggle equipment of the Iraqi army after it practi- today in Damascus.” time and energy on regrets.” Jeb Bush says: he writes. IS will not be its final phase. In Terror, Knaur, “Since 2001, the US has intervened mili- but said that when the US withdrawal began engage” in Iraq and go beyond the steps purpose of bringing democracy – and the between Wahhabi-Sunni Saudi Arabia and cally melted away last year against the jihad- Democracy has its own risks and side “What’s the role of America going forward? Europe’s Thirty Years War too, religion 12,99 Euro tarily or operated armed drone missions in in 2008, Iraq was not in the shape it is today: that President Obama has already taken. unstated one of installing pliant new leaders. Shi’ite Iran for regional hegemony.” ists. That Assad has not shied away from effects, and can produce unwanted results. Are we going to pull back now and be at some point no longer sufficed as a suf- seven mainly Muslim states: Afghanistan, “It was fragile, but it was stable.” Besides flying drone missions, “we have to 2. Following the 2003 invasion of Iraq, 7. The US denationalized the oil indus- supporting Salafists and jihadists to divide The removal of democratically elected gov- defeatist and pessimistic or are we going to ficiently mobilizing force, Herrmann says. You can read Graham E. Fuller’s article Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, Pakistan, Libya Compare that with Rainer Hermann, be there to train the military and to do the the US civilian administrator Paul Bremer try, allowing US and British companies to the opposition has not made the situation ernments or tolerating their removal, as in engage in a way that creates a more peaceful He believes, what matters is what will at: http://grahamefuller.com/articles/ and Syria,” writes Middle East analyst veteran correspondent for the Frank- things that are being done right now.” dismantled the final vestiges of functioning receive exploration licenses. In the view of any better. Egypt, certainly does not enhance the cred- and secure world?” follow IS. n 12 June/July 2015

Countering June/July 2015 Section B 13 Putin’s disinformation Economic sanctions campaign hurt everyone Germany’s international broadcaster Blocking trade does not only damage Russia’s economy. Deutsche Welle (DW) launches The Ukraine crisis should be solved by diplomacy a new flagship English-language news channel By Eckhard Cordes By Paul Hockenos he conflict over the future of for creating a common European economic to $25 billion. Siemens has been working differences over how eutsche Welle, Germany’s resources to news programming in Eng- Ukraine has become a major region at a summit in Rome. Since then, for years to try and land the order for to implement the Minsk state-financed radio and lish, less to the programming it does in focus for the German business the concept is waiting to be implemented. the Moscow-Kazan high-speed train, but protocol. television broadcaster, is 30 other languages, including German. community’s Committee on Now, in 2015, that goal of creating Chinese companies are now realizing the Whether it was wise of taking a big gamble. Its new The quantity of English-language news EasternT European Economic Relations. a common economic region seems like project. These are only three striking the EU to rule out lifting the administrationD thinks that a significantly shows is being upped from four hours The committee has organized many talks an idea from a completely different era. examples of a trend that could lead to a sanctions until Minsk II has been revamped and beefed up multimedia to 13 a day. More correspondents are and conferences in Ukraine, Russia and The speed with which the two economic long-term change in the economic – and completely implemented is certainly English-language service can one day being put on the ground in world hot Germany over the past 18 months of this blocks are “demerging” is breathtaking. therefore, political – architecture. open to debate. On the one hand, imple- MA8/FOTOLIA boost it into the league of the BBC – spots. ongoing crisis. It has become clear that the Mutual economic sanctions are accelerat- The German economy, the approxi- menting the agreements does not only and critically, in the short term, pose “We’re not going to be able to com- conflict did not begin in Kiev or in Crimea. ing the process. mately 6,000 German companies that depend on Russia. There are two other Energy issues and airing Russian misgiv- a counterweight to Russia’s powerful pete overnight with the big international It is the consequence of a profound loss In 2014 alone, bilateral trade between have invested more than $20 billion in parties – the Ukrainian government and the ings about the EU free trade treaty with international broadcasting and propa- broadcasters like CNN and BBC,” says of trust between Russia and the West Russia and Germany shrank by €6.5 bil- Russia, did not cause the political crisis separatists – that have a significant impact Ukraine will be on the agenda. It would ganda machines. Carsten von Nahmen, head of news that began over ten years ago. Both sides lion and in the first few months of 2015, that is currently taking on dramatic pro- on its success. And the EU no longer has the make sense to institutionalize this meeting For years, Deutsche Welle – with much programming at the DW. “But we’re have grounds to self-critically examine the there was another dramatic decline of portions. Over the past ten to 15 years opportunity to initiate a positive stimulus between the EU, Russia and the Eastern smaller budgets – has lagged far behind taking a step in that direction,” he says causes of that breakdown. 35 percent. Companies are putting their many have invested private capital in in the peace process by revoking the sanc- Partnership countries as a forum for solv- the big-ticket international broadcast- referring to the relaunch planned for June When the European Union enlarged by investments on ice and the labor market this market. These companies are rightly tions step by step. ing crises and in general, preventing them. ers like BBC and CNN. Despite its 60 22. “BBC and CNN set the mark for ten countries in 2004, expanding its bor- is losing jobs because of uncertainty over demanding that the political problems be On the other hand, the EU Commission All the countries in the Eastern Partner- year history, Deutsche Welle has seen quality in the market. We want to narrow ders to meet the western border of Russia, the future. solved by diplomatic means and not at the is now in the process of critically review- ship, including Ukraine, have one thing in France 24 and Al Jazeera coming out the gap,” he says, and then hopefully in Moscow accepted it. The new proximity The economically weaker countries in expense of their work. ing its own strategy with regard to East- common: it is not only rational for them of nowhere and overtake it in terms of the future compete on the first tier of would generate immense opportunities Eastern Europe and Central Asia are Russia’s total land area, including the ern Europe and Russia. This is a positive to maintain relationships with both the viewers, programming quality and clout. international broadcasting. that were obvious for both sides. The EU’s suffering most. But specialized medium- Asian part, is four times larger than the result. The consultation mechanism on this EU and Russia, but is also one of the only Russia Today (RT), Moscow’s state- The ascent of Limbourg has sparked new eastern border was not intended to be sized companies in Germany are also in total area of the European Union. With point was initiated in March. Policy papers options for stabilizing the countries torn by directed broadcaster, is another new- anew a debate about what Deutsche a dividing line. Instead, it was to become danger. According to a current Federation each severed business contact and each issued by EU Commissioner for European inner tension. This is why there should not comer. It appeared on the scene in 2005. Welle is and what it hopes to be. “In the more and more permeable for people of German Industries (BDI) and Deutsche investment not made, the potential for Neighborhood Policy Johannes Hahn and be an either-or decision between integra- Since then it has exerted significant past we didn’t focus so much on hard and goods. Bank survey of 400 major German family- German and European influence shrinks. EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini tion into the EU market or membership influence on world opinion, in particular news,” explains von Nahmen. “This We experienced a phase of annual two- run businesses, 57 percent fear continued Without Russia, it will be difficult to point in the right direction. in the Eurasian Economic Union. An EU on the topic of Vladimir Putin’s Russia will change. It’s important that there digit trade growth and constant growth in negative consequences as a result of the develop a secure, prospering Europe. I have two key thoughts on the subject: association agreement with Ukraine can and its current conflicts with Ukraine be a German voice in the international investment. The people of the EU, Russia Ukraine crisis. Against Russia, it will be practically 1. Russia is a geopolitical factor. It must only be successful if Ukraine does not lose and the West. The broadcasting venture television news market. We’re going and the neighboring countries in Eastern In the eyes of the Western world, Russia impossible. But Russia in turn needs the be integrated into the European Neighbor- the important Russian market as a result. and strong public relations campaigns to try to get there first and break some Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia has committed a breach of international West as a partner to achieve stable eco- hood Policy. And this is why the German business com- have helped Russia punch above its important stories,” he says. all benefited. At the end of 2003, a joint law by annexing Crimea. Will economic nomic development. 2. The vision of a joint economic region munity’s Committee on Eastern European weight, collect allies and sympathizers, Von Nahmen says that the new DW EU-Russian task force presented a concept sanctions and cancelling established dialog Germany bears a historical responsibil- from Lisbon to Vladivostok must be Economic Relations has long called for and make the West look hypocritical. News service can overtake the likes of Al formats really bring us closer to a solution ity to ensure that this necessary partner- revived. The first step in that direction must direct talks between the Eurasian Economic In eastern Ukraine and Russia, it has Jazeera, RT and China’s CCTV simply to the conflict and render the Russian gov- ship is (once again) recognized by the EU be prepared in joint discussion between the Union and the European Commission on shored up support for the pro-Russian on the basis of quality journalism, which ernment more ready to compromise? as well as Russia. At the height of the European and Eurasian economic com- joint trade standards, certification regula- rebels in Ukraine and for President none of these state-financed broadcasters Current experience shows there is Ukraine crisis, Berlin comprehensively missions. tions, and customs regulations.

Vladimir Putin’s leadership. can match. In particular, Deutsche Welle RITTER IMAGO/JÜRGEN no unambiguous answer. lived up to that special role – for which Russia considered the NATO accession Unfortunately, there is no political con- All the while, Deutsche Welle was hopes to win new viewers in places like Small budget, big ambitions – the DW television center in Berlin. While EU exports to Russia the German business community is very of several Eastern European countries a tact between the two institutions at this unable to forge a strong international Africa and Asia where English is widely are dropping dispropor- grateful. direct geopolitical challenge. More so, time. However, in February they again profile with soft cultural shows about spoken. “This market has been domi- One of Limbourg’s main arguments while RT is planning one. Deutsche said Harald Petzold of the Left Party in tionately, countries The Normandy format negotiations in the launch of the EU Eastern Partnership anchored the “vision of a joint humanitar- German traditions and holiday loca- nated by Anglo-American broadcasters,” in seeking new funding was that a new Welle has for years translated radio the Bundestag. such as China, South Minsk in February 2015 showed that it initiative – targeted at six former republics ian and economic region from the Atlantic tions – and steadily declining budgets. he says. “Al Jazeera broke into it and now and improved Deutsche Welle is needed programming into Serbian and other But Riecke thinks Deutsche Welle is up Korea, Taiwan and pays to stubbornly remain on the path of of the Soviet Union – in 2008. to the Pacific” in the ancillary agreements But those days are over, says Peter we want to, too.” to counter Russia’s global media reach. regional languages, but of late its fund- to the task. “Deutsche Welle doesn’t twist Switzerland have diplomacy. We Germans are still heard in The European Union overlooked that to the Minsk protocol. The German chan- Limbourg, Deutsche Welle’s director Deutsche Welle says it will do so by Russia Today broadcasts in English, ing for this has been scaled back. reality the way RT does,” he says. “It is filled the gaps. Last Moscow. The Minsk II agreement, which Moscow sees a direct line from planned cellor has emphasized this vision several general since 2013. Limbourg went to providing something that’s missing: a Spanish, Arabic and Russian. It claims “In Serbia it’s the young people who overseen by external bodies. There’s no summer, Russia came about due to the personal com- EU association agreements with some times, most recently during her visit to the mat with Berlin’s political class to German perspective. During the Iraq it has 700 million viewers in more than tend to understand English the best but way that it will turn to the hate speech and China finally mitment of German Chancellor Angela of the Eastern Partnership countries, to Moscow on May 10. We hope that the have the broadcaster’s budget increased, War in 2003, for example, Germany, 100 countries across the world. they don’t watch television,” says Reljic. and disingenuous journalism of RT.” shook hands on Merkel and Foreign Minister Frank-Wal- EU membership and NATO integration. debate on this subject will finally take off. though just to €274 million, less than 1 which opposed the war, had a view "We’re currently experiencing an “Older people tend to be the television The new profile of Deutsche Welle the comprehen- ter Steinmeier, has opened up the prospect Moscow considers NATO membership a Ongoing talks are the only means of percent more than in 2014. Moreover, different from the Americans and the international disinformation campaign watchers. But there’re not going to be also has adversaries within the organiza- sive gas deal they of a peaceful solution. direct threat to Russian national security. emerging from the current political and Deutsche Welle has received additional British, who backed it. by Putin," the Christian Democrat poli- open to Deutsche Welle in any language.” tion. Veterans at the broadcaster say it had been unsuc- And there are signs that the German The EU should have built up trust, acted economic conflict and crisis mode. We do project funds (about €3.5 million) for “I’m not really sure what a German tician Roderich Kiesewetter told the “Deutsche Welle is the lighthouse shouldn’t give up German programming cessfully negoti- government’s diplomatic tenacity is bear- more transparently with regard to the everything we can to support this effort programming in Ukrainian and Russian. perspective would entail,” admits Hen- Handelsblatt­ . "A strengthened Deutsche for Germany’s democracy around the as its core function. In the past, German ating for the past ing further fruit. The battles in the eastern program and goals of the Eastern Partner- from the side of the German economy and The latter has enabled it to expand its ning Riecke of the German Council on Welle can effectively send information world,” said Monika Grütters, Ger- language news had first priority and ten years. In May part of Ukraine are still going on, but their ship and taken Russian misgivings into we all know that this process of communi- Russian-language program to full time Foreign Relations. But he says that there’s and signals of support to the people in many’s Commissioner for culture and was then translated into English and of this year, it was number has declined significantly. The lives consideration and dispelled them at an cation and reconciliation will take time. But and the Ukrainian program to 18 hours growing interest around the globe in Ger- Eastern Europe, and also to the millions media, last year. “For some it is the only other languages for the international announced that Chi- of many people have been saved. And now early stage. It is important to do this now, everyone knows that every journey begins a day, seven days a week. many – and German power in the world. of Russians living abroad." connection to the free world.” programs. nese banks plan to that four joint task forces on the subjects in retrospect. with the first step. n The issue of financing is sensitive as “These days people are more interested Reljic, a native of Serbia and expert on If its aim is to outdo the Russian media “This is one of the difficulties trying to support Russian com- of security, the political process, humani- The agreements aimed at calming eastern Deutsche Welle’s funding comes indirectly in what is happening in Germany than, Southeastern Europe, is skeptical. and PR offensives, will it then become a change something that has been around panies cut off from the tarian issues and economic development Ukraine that were concluded in Minsk Eckhard Cordes is the chairman of the German from the German taxpayer. The German say, England,” he says. The region is particularly important propaganda tool of the German govern- for so long as Deutsche Welle has,” says capital markets by the West- have been set up, there are bodies in which on Feb. 12, 2015 include trilateral talks Committee on Eastern European Economic broadcaster currently has about 1,500 But others, like Dusan Reljic, head of since countries like Romania, Monte- ment, just as Russia Today is of the Putin von Nahmen. “There’s a lot of tradition ern sanctions with loans of up the conflicting parties can iron out their between the EU, Russia and Ukraine. Relations, representing German business. full-time staff supported by 4,000 free- the German Institute for International negro, Serbia and Greece tend to lean administration? The issue has been hotly and history that has to be overcome.” n MPANCH/FOTOLIA lancers. It is not widely watched within and Security Affairs’ Brussels office, toward Russia on some political issues. discussed in the Bundestag where MPs of Germany. Yet it boasts 100 million view- thinks it’s a waste of money. ”I can’t see But Reljic says that English-language the democratic socialist Left Party have Paul Hockenos is a Berlin-based writer who has ers and listeners worldwide every week. been working in Germany and across Central and the added value that Deutsche Welle can programming “doesn’t have a chance objected to this trend. “I don’t want to Eastern Europe since 1989. He has contributed Moreover, Deutsche Welle is restruc- provide in the international television in southeastern Europe.” Al Jazeera see the Deutsche Welle become a mouth- to The New York Times, Newsweek, The Nation, turingAdlon_290x130 from within, 05.03.2009 devoting more10:10 newsUhr market,”Seite 1 he says. already has a Serbian-language program, piece for the German foreign ministry,” Foreign Policy. Economic warfare Sanctions are the new drones – they have the grammar of commerce but the logic of war | By Mark Leonard

Berlin – The place to be in Europe n the nuclear talks with Iran, the war” – that risks unraveling the global against their government. Modern sanc- eral economic consensus. With the crisis, companies for their national govern- Hotel Adlon Kempinski – The place to stay in Berlin timing of when and how to lift the system and its institutions. tions are “smart” – they target specific the state has returned as a major player ment’s stance on territorial issues in the economic and financial sanctions Those who believed that geopolitics was individuals, groups or companies. Trea- in economic affairs. US and European East China Sea. has emerged as the main stick- dead, that major powers would rather suries and foreign offices around the world central banks are pursuing quantitative More recently, some analysts have Iing point. The fact that sanctions have do business than fight each other, will be are working on ever-more sophisticated easing, and more and more industry sec- claimed that Saudi Arabia’s decision to played the starring role in these negotia- disappointed. Geopolitics is not dead, it financial instruments. tors – from yoghurt production to IT keep the oil price low was as much a tions will not surprise any observers of only changed the battlefield – for today’s The second development challenging – are being declared ‘strategic’ and their geopolitical decision as an economical recent US foreign policy. For the Obama strategists and diplomats choosing their the current order is the geopoliticisation businesses protected. one. Commodities used to be considered administration, sanctions are the new weapon of choice: ‘It’s the economy, of trade. Rather than creating a single Fourth, new alliances are being forged a stable store of value during times of drones – offering devastatingly effec- stupid!’ global market, we are seeing the coming through and around infrastructure proj- broader economic uncertainty – they tive but surgical interventions without Five trends are challenging globaliza- together of regions concentrated around ects. Where classical Western alliances aren’t anymore. The new economic reality running the risk of having to send in tion: large powers, in particular the EU, US, were built around trade, the removal is one of commodity price volatility – this Berlin – Exciting city! Located Adlon Pool and Gym as well as ground troops. First, the outbreak of economic war- Russia and China. A surge of regional and of trade barriers and international law, is universally bad economic news. directly at the historical land- the exclusive ADLON DAY SPA, However, the long-term legacy of West- fare. There is as much talk in Western bilateral trade talks can be observed across China is developing infrastructure finance These five trends pose real challenges marks Pariser Platz and Bran- meet the most exacting de- ern sanctions goes beyond the question capitals today about sanctions policy the world. Russia is promoting the Eur- projects as a major foreign policy tool. In to globalization, and risk to eventually of Iran’s nuclear program. The prolifera- as about trade – towards Iran, towards asian Economic Union in its ‘near-abroad’ late 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping unravel the global economic system that denburg Gate, the legendary mands for comfort and service. tion of the use of sanctions poses bigger Russia towards Syria, sanctions are the and China pushes for the Regional Com- announced the “One Belt, One Road” developed after the Cold War. Economics Hotel Adlon Kempinski is the Whatever draws you to Berlin, questions about the global economic order of the hour. With every year after prehensive Economic Partnership and project that will link China to Bangkok is not simply about growth and unem- perfect place to stay. All facil- take advantage of the Hotel system. As liberals predicted, globaliza- the Cold War, there have been more. against the rival US Trans-Pacific Partner- and Budapest (the ‘belt’) and develop ployment anymore. It has become a core ities, from our restaurants and Adlon Kempinski – a place where tion allowed states to come together. But Between 1990 and 2007 alone, economic ship. Smaller states find themselves in the the Eurasian coast (the maritime ‘road’). foreign policy tool. But when govern- bars to the guestrooms, the history is made. the growing interdependence created by sanctions were used by the US, Greece, middle of this, forced to choose between This is just one example of the type of ments use it too much, they could make globalization has also provided states Russia, the UN and EU, China, Germany, competing great powers’ spheres of influ- infrastructure projects aimed at expand- the system seem unreliable and treacher- Hotel Adlon Kempinski Berlin · Unter den Linden 77 · 10117 Berlin, Germany with the tools to compete more effectively Belgium, France, Saudi Arabia, England, ence. These new types of regionalism often ing China’s access to raw materials and ous and thus encourage other powers to Tel +49 30 2261 0 · Fax +49 30 2261 2222 · [email protected] · www.hotel-adlon.de – by manipulating their dependence on the Netherlands, Spain, Japan, the OAU strengthen major regional powers at the export markets. hedge against it, which would further one another. and ECOWAS, Mercosur, and Turkey. expense of the periphery. Globalization also faces a challenge undermine the system. n In fact, the ever-growing use of sanc- In part this is a consequence of the Third, we are witnessing the rise of from the manipulation of commodity tions is an example of the rise of geo- increased sophistication of sanctions. state capitalism. Even before the global prices. The world was shocked when Mark Leonard is Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations and one of the authors of the economics – a contest defined by the Sanctions used to be broad, aimed at the economic crisis, China’s economic suc- China used its dominant position in the “EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY SCORECARD 2012” “grammar of commerce but the logic of population, which was expected to revolt cess story led many to question the lib- rare earths market to punish Japanese (www.ecfr.eu) 14 June/July 2015 June/July 2015 15 Innovative solutions Resurrected from the ruins Boomtown Berlin: The days of coal The science and technology park in Berlin-Adlershof, for the highest IT Berlin was a rich industrial city, before it suffered the home of ten non-university research institutes and consequences of the Nazi war. 25 years after the some 1,000 businesses. are numbered fall of the Wall, the capital is back on its feet security requirements. Climate protection starts with renouncing fossil fuels – and By Peter H. Koepf using energy more effectively | By Stephan Kohler Attacks on computers and networks are on the rise. Cyber crime erlin is poor, but sexy. switch – or in other words inclu- and data theft have dramatic consequences ranging from enormous With this slogan, the last sive of supplies, semi-finished and economic damage to loss of image and customers. mayor cast his city as a finished goods. he international energy China has already signed long- The International Energy brand. But Berlin was And then came the blockade markets, particularly term energy supply agreements Agency (IEA) has demanded the Years of work can be destroyed in minutes. sexyB long before Klaus Wowereit. of 1948/49: The “candy bomb- oil and natural gas, with Iran. Russia will increas- following in its World Energy Rohde & Schwarz supports government, society and business And not in the least bit poor. ers” may have flown material have developed in an ingly supply China with oil and Outlook: CO2 emissions amount- One thing it certainly was, was into the city for manufacturing at Tinteresting way over the past gas too, not least because of ing to approximately 30 gigatons with IT solutions and encryption technology made in Germany. innovative. Siemens & Halske and 6,000 tons few months. A decline in the the Western economic sanctions (GT) in 2010 must be reduced to When Thomas Edison illumi- of finished products out, but the price of oil to $50 per barrel as a result of the Ukraine con- 22 GT by the year 2035. nated the first office high-rises in inflated transport costs remained was inconceivable even a short flict. This competition between This would require a major Ensure your security at: New York in 1882, Berliners were – even once the blockade had been while ago, although an oil price Europe and Asia for energy reduction in the use of fossil strolling along Leipziger Straße lifted. Within just a few years, above $50 was considered abso- sources will increase. energy sources. Coal would have www.rohde-schwarz.com beneath 36 electrically powered 900 other companies relocated arc lamps. The first subway ran their operations to western sec- in 1902. Schering supplied the tors, hundreds relocated individ- world with medication to treat ual corporate divisions, western gout and insomnia, Borsig built German companies closed their locomotives and other machines Berlin branches. By the end of for the whole of Europe. AEG, 1950, one in every four jobseekers Allianz, Siemens, Deutsche Bank, couldn’t find work. Knorr Bremse, Lufthansa and “The damage is irrepara- Osram are all Berlin companies. ble”, says economics historian Between the wars, four out of Johannes Bähr. “Siemens will every 10 people working in the always remain in Munich, and German electro industry worked Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt.“ in Berlin, dubbed “Elektropolis“ Along with the big companies, at the time. Other robust sectors: the workforce also turned its mechanical engineering, steel con- back on Berlin, above all people struction, vehicle manufacturing, with qualifications: “Anyone the iron, steel and metalwork- with career aspirations went ing industries, construction, con- to the West. That was Berlin’s sumer goods, textiles. greatest loss: human capital,“ Berlin had intellect: Albert says Bähr. Einstein worked here. And art: But now, 70 years after the end of expressionist painters such as the war, human capital is return-

Ernst Ludwig Kirchner changed ing. Berlin is drawing thousands IMAGO WEISFLOG STOCK&PEOPLE/RAINER perception and style in Berlin of young creatives from Spain, The days of coal are numbered. A brown coal power station in Schkopau, Saxony-Anhalt. before World War I. And politics: Italy and Israel, start-ups are Philipp Scheidemann declared trying out new things, the spirit lutely detrimental to the global Future climate protection to be replaced first, as it generates the first republic on German soil of the country’s late 19th cen- economy at the beginning of this policy will be crucial for the the highest CO2 emissions when in Berlin. And of course sex: In tury ‘Gründerzeit’ has returned. century. However, the price of ongoing development of energy being converted into energy. the 1920s, Berlin was one of the “Berlin is the start-up metropolis oil has always been subject to markets. Germany and Europe However, coal is almost always sauciest places to party in Europe. of Europe”, says Stefan Franzke, major fluctuations. In November plan to reduce their CO2 emis- cheaper than oil and natural gas, In short: Berlin was busy. Berlin CEO of Berlin Partner for Busi- 2001, a barrel cost about $17; sions by 40 percent and 20 per- it is available around the world was wired. Berlin smelled of sweat ness and Technology. “We bring the price rose to a maximum cent respectively by the year and it will be so for several hun- and champagne. And then came startups and industry together in figure of $147 in August 2011; 2020, although Germany is shut- dred years to come. This also the Nazis and the torch proces- the capital thereby linking the best it had fallen to $35 by December ting down all its nuclear power helps ensure reliable supplies. sions, which Berlin painter Max of two worlds: the digital know- 2008 and then exceeded the $100 plants at the same time. At their The CO2 emission goals can Liebermann commented on thus: how of young company founders threshold again during 2011. Elmau Summit, the G-7 agreed to also be achieved by higher degrees

“I can’t eat as much as I’d like to and the long-term market experi- These fluctuations often reduce CO2 emmissions by 40 to of energy efficiency and energy throw up.” ence of established industry.” cause huge social and economic 70 perecent by 2050. savings, according to the IEA’s The city has only been poor Evidently with success: over the damage, either for the oil-pro- It will therefore be interesting World Energy Outlook, but this

since 1945. The Allies in Yalta STOCK&PEOPLE IMAGO past year, Berlin has collected ducing nations or for consumer to see what is agreed at the World would only create half the neces- had agreed that all German much more than €1 billion venture countries. Both oil suppliers and Climate Conference in Paris in sary reductions in CO2 by the weapon factories should be capital for startups in technology customers had adapted to a price the fall. If delegates adopt ambi- year 2020. Therefore, the high- destroyed. Many of those were Smart City Wired and digital media, almost as much of about $100 for more than tious climate protection goals est priority should be given to ¸SITLine ETH Encryptor based in Berlin, and Comrade Berlin is a laboratory for future given an energy overhaul using Berlin already had electric as London, which is still Europe’s three years and had accepted for the whole planet, it will be introducing these efficiency goals. solutions. All universities, intelligent processes. cars in 1899. Siemens- Stalin knew no mercy: “Of course research institutes, technology Schuckert, for example, frontrunner in this sector. Almost that it would remain at this level. necessary to reduce the use of Can these efficiency goals be Germany cannot be allowed to sites and companies such as That’s the “smart city” that the presented the “Electric 90 percent of newly-founded With this high price, the suppliers coal to a significant degree in the achieved through a global CO2 retain its heavy industry,” he Siemens and Bosch will join CEO of business developers Victoria” in 1905. Top companies create a market inno- of natural gas and coal also had future. These kinds of political levy, with higher energy prices said. So the Red Army seized forces to work on urban future Berlin Partner, Stefan Franzke, speed: 30 km/h. Range: 60 vation. One in every eight new reliable markets and a good rev- decisions against the use of coal that lead to greater savings? This technologies, to make the city is hoping for. He invites industry kilometers. Only 50 were built. company accounts and plundered even smarter. Specifically: representatives to learn from GAMBARINI PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/MAURIZIO Or the “Slaby-Beringer” (right) Berlin is now following on jobs arises in the digital sector. enue situation, renewable energy have an effect on the energy mix is only true to a certain extent. factories. Between May and June Berlin will serve as a reference and in Berlin, in particular also built in 1919 especially for the this tradition: Brose is the Cornelia Yzer, Senator for Busi- sources were economically more and they would trigger greater Expertise, technology and capital 1945, Russian commandos seized city for attempts to develop a for Asian megacities: “In Berlin war wounded. The single- only German manufacturer of ness, Technology and Research attractive and many countries demand for oil and natural gas. are all required to achieve effi- self-driving car. The transport they can gather experience on passenger car weighed just electric motors for bicycles, around 2,000 machines with a system will be remodeled to a smaller scale and use them 180 kilograms – with battery. Berlin is testing startup believes that as an investment and decided to adopt major subsidy The financial markets are now ciency potential. total weight of around 11,000 make it more environmentally as a reference for the entire Ubitricity’s idea of charging innovation location for national programs to reduce their depen- having serious misgivings about Those involved often lack the tons. friendly and socially sustainable, world,” he says. Cisco has 2005 cars were built by 1924. electric cars from street lamps. and international companies, dence on fossil energy sources the continued use of coal, too. necessary capital and the exper- The Western allies also claimed the search for a parking space – chosen Berlin as its training An original Slaby-Beringer, The Berlin-Brandenburg Berlin is “more attractive than and meet goals designed to pro- The Norwegian State Fund has tise. It is therefore necessary to 30 percent of all traffic! – made and development center and formerly the property of region aims to be seen as an the right to reparations – until easier using an app. Electricity set up its innovation center for Buckingham Palace, is now on internationally recognized ever since reunification.” The tect the climate too. decided to no longer invest in introduce a program for develop- ¸SITGate L500 Next Generation Firewall 1947. In the end, 460 plants had will be derived from “green the “Internet of Everything” in show at the German Museum pioneer in the electromobility German capital can again com- However, oil and energy prices corporations that are involved ing energy efficiency in addition sources”, public buildings Berlin. of Technology in Berlin. sector by the year 2020. been broken down, almost all pete on a level playing field with are not stable. They are subject in the coal business. Oil and to any global CO2 levy. This of them right down to the last other metropolises, she says. n to many influences: global eco- gas conglomerates are support- means investments in training,

nomic growth and its structure, ing a global CO2 levy to protect providing investment funds and political interference (e.g. how the climate in the run-up to the developing innovative energy OPEC behaves), wars and civil conference. services. This will open up new hancellor Angela Former French President and wars (e.g. Iraq, Libya), sanctions It is conceivable that climate business opportunities for energy Merkel defended the guest of honor Nicolas Sar- (Iran), environmental disasters change will increasingly domi- corporations and create skilled policies of the Euro- Chancellor defends ECB kozy also spoke. He praised the (hurricanes), the development nate the development of energy jobs around the globe. pean Central Bank members of the Family Business and use of new drilling tech- markets. The major focus is on This efficiency strategy will C(ECB). At the Day of the German Foundation for not being solely niques like fracking or those the use of fossil energy sources. mean a fall in demand on the Family Business in Berlin on June Angela Merkel tells meeting of German Foundation for Family Businesses that bank focused on making the biggest designed to tap into deposits They are believed to be respon- fossil energy markets and there- 12 she said a strong euro would has mandate to ward off deflation profits: “If the people would out at sea or in Arctic regions. sible for the growing number fore greater pressure on prices make it difficult for countries like understand that capitalism and a Liquid natural gas (LNG) is also of storms with their enormous or falling prices. The CO2 levy is Portugal and Spain to reap the market economy are not primar- expected to exert a major influ- potential to do damage, hur- therefore essential in order not to benefits of their extensive reform ily tools for the interests of trad- ence on the international natural ricanes and tornados with wind jeopardize the cost-effectiveness efforts. Referring specifically to the bond-buying plan complies troversial issues surrounding the dards for the entire world. As a at the intersection of consumer ers and hedge funds, not meant to gas markets, where similar trad- speeds previously unknown of efficiency measures.

exports and high unemployment with European law. planned pact, the harmonization consequence Europe and the US and product who collected data unwind companies, cash out and ing conditions could be created (350 km/h) and the intense and However, the CO2 levy will rates, Merkel said she appreci- Merkel also defended the of guidelines and regulations. would be “ahead of the game.” would have a better understand- move on, but a type of economy to those governing the oil market long-lasting disasters caused by not help organize the switch in ated the ECB asking: what can planned transatlantic free trade “European standards are in fact The chancellor also warned ing what products customer where freedom and responsibil- – i.e. global trade, which does drought and periods of extreme energy sources from coal to natu- be done when the inflation rate agreement TTIP, currently being not always higher than those in against too much reluctance wanted, she said. “There is com- ity go hand in hand, we would not depend on pipelines. This is heat, not least in the US and ral gas; the price differences are

is still so low?” The German negotiated between the EU and the US,” Merkel said. She said in dealing with customer data. petition in this area. Companies have more proponents of a free particularly interesting for Euro- India. simply too high. The CO2 levy chancellor said it was “the ECB’s the US – to the approval of the she felt it was more important “Despite data protection, increas- that are too cautious, will not market economy – in Germany, peans, who hope that they can Foresight is better than com- will not placate energy markets mandate to make sure we don’t assembled business leaders. that two economic regions could ing digitalization will change our profit from the creation of value in France, all over the world,” reduce dependency on Russia for bating damage; many countries overall either, although falling enter a deflationary spiral.” Referring to one of the more con- use the agreement to set stan- lives,” Merkel said. Companies in the future.” Sarkozy said. n imports of natural gas through cannot afford the latter anyway. demand might reduce depen- She was responding to a speech pipelines by switching to LNG. The poorest people in the world dency on fossile fuels and their by Brun-Hagen Hennerkes, the Left: A-list guests at the Day of This was the reason why the suffer the most. market dominance. chairman of the German Foun- the German Family Business speech by Iranian Energy Min- The world cannot afford to Energy efficiency is particularly dation for Family Businesses, in at the Hotel Adlon in Berlin ister Bijan Namdar was eagerly allow this to happen. Climatolo- important so that any increase in which he called for a more stable on June 12: (left to right) awaited at the Energy Security gists generally agree now that demand for natural gas and oil President of Bulgaria Rossen common currency. “A stable Plewneliew; Robert Lindemann- Summit held in Berlin in May the average global temperature triggered by climate policy does euro requires us to put an end to Berk, member of the board of 2015. Iran is one of the world’s must not be allowed to rise by not trigger risks regarding energy the ECB’s unlawful actions,” he trustees of the Foundation for countries with huge natural more than 2 degrees Celsius by supplies or energy prices that are said, a reference to the ECB’s con- Family Businesses in Germany; resources and it has consider- the year 2100. This goal pro- no longer acceptable. Climate tentious bond-buying program. Chancellor Angela Merkel and able deposits of oil and natural vides a reliable basis for deter- policy must not create a situa- “Only then will we be able to end Stefan Heidbreder, managing gas. How will Iran behave after mining and introducing a future tion where developing countries director of the Foundation for the continuing march towards a the lifting of Western sanctions? climate and energy strategy. The no longer have any economic Family Businesses in Germany. weak currency, replace the ‘tin Namdar made it very clear that countries attending the climate prospects. n euro’ and revive the strong euro,” Iran will not construct any pipe- conference in Paris should reach Hennerkes said. The European lines to Western Europe and an agreement on this. There is Court of Justice, the EU’s top LNG exports will target markets a need to finally define a clear Stephan Kohler is the managing partner of Nicolas Sarkozy and EnergyEfficiencyInvest-Eurasia GmbH and

judicial body, ruled June 16 that FAMILIENUNTERNEHMEN STIFTUNG Brun-Hagen Hennerkes. with the highest price levels – i.e. development path for global a member of the committee of the World

not Europe, but Asia. CO2 emissions. Energy Council with a focus on Germany.

15348.004_IT-Security_SecurityTimes-Juni15_143x530_e.indd 1 07.05.15 11:42 Uhr June/July 2015 17

16 Section C June/July 2015

STIFTUNG WARENTEST

The currywurst divides the nation Berlin just wouldn’t be Berlin without it. The currywurst is the capital’s culinary symbol. But Hamburg is also claiming credit for its invention.

t’s the icon of German food culture. Currywurst” (The Discovery of the Cur- to have eaten currywurst during his sauce patented. The successful business- exhibits. A sample is included in the It even outstrips car production at rywurst) has so far sold 700,000 copies Hamburg youth pre-1949. He expresses woman took the original recipe for this ticket price. the Volkswagen plant in Wolfs- and been translated into 28 languages. his memories through the character of ingeniously clever dish with her to her Poor old currywurst. It’s really been burg, with 6.3 million sausages In his “Currywurst” saga, Timm relates Lena Brücker, who sold bratwurst with grave in 1999. However, since 2003 through the mill. Gourmets alienated it Ichurned out annually by the factory’s a love story set at the end of World curry sauce from a snack stand on the there’s been a memorial plaque mark- with gold leaf and saffron. Michelin and very own butchery. In comparison, the War II. Grossneumarkt square in bombed-out ing the site of her first imbiss, or snack Gault&Millau snobs created de luxe plant “only” produces 6.1 million cars Germany’s most successful musician Hamburg. stand, on Kaiser Friedrich Strasse. sausages refined with oysters or caviar every year for export around the globe. Herbert Grönemeyer dedicated a song to Berliners on the other hand believe the Selling sausages is a tradition upheld in served on gold-rimmed plates. Fast food The currywurst has long been regarded the currywurst, detectives featured in the original inventor to be Herta Heuwer, the capital to this day. In post-war Berlin, chains coerced sausages into soulless as the culinary figurehead of the German television crime drama series “Tatort” an East Prussian woman from Königs- bombed out streets were dotted with own-brand creations. soul. It’s sold at hundreds of kiosks in eat them on the banks of the Rhine in berg, now Kaliningrad. According to mobile sausage stands. It’s little wonder No matter: A bitter conflict over its Berlin – from Kreuzberg to Charlotten- Cologne, preferably after solving a crime. this particular account, the first ever cult that the German Currywurst Museum is origin has been smoldering for years burg, from Marzahn to Mariendorf. In Ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder would sausage was sold at Herta’s Imbiss in based in Berlin. between Berlin and Hamburg. But against the Ruhr valley the sausages are prepared regularly ask his chauffeur to make a Berlin-Charlottenburg on Sept. 4, 1949. The multi-award winning exhibi- Berlin’s trump card named Herta Heuwer, on the barbecue, in Düsseldorf they’re stop on the way to work, so that he She created what was called a “chillup” tion in Schützenstraße is devoted to the Hanseatic argument, represented in given a good dusting of golden seasoning. could guzzle a currywurst – far from the sauce for her sausage by mixing together the German national dish with all its literature, is looking ever more flimsy. In Bavaria, they’re washed down with a hawk-like gaze of his wife at the time, a tomato puree, water and exotic spices – associated legends and stories on an The nice people of Hamburg should glug of Maibock beer. strict vegetarian. the word “chillup” was used to describe entertaining tour with the ambience of wash their mouths out and celebrate The currywurst story has even found But who actually came up with the idea this blend of chili and ketchup. a real imbiss. The object of desire can their victory over Berlin’s Olympic bid. an incarnation as a literary best-seller: of serving a sausage with curry sauce? Ten years after the creation of this be explored with all the senses in the Preferably with a currywurst, made in Uwe Timm’s novel “Die Entdeckung der Best-selling author Uwe Timm claims German delicacy, Heuwer had the cult form of interactive and multi-media Berlin. n A girl on the West Berlin side watches a bricklayer working on the border on August 13, 1961. Overnight, from August 12 to August 13, thousands of soldiers and policemen began carrying out East German government orders to seal off roads and train tracks leading to West Berlin. 7 famous currywurst stands in Berlin ULLSTEIN BILD/HYZDAL VON MISERONY VON BILD/HYZDAL ULLSTEIN

Curry 195 Curry 36 Konopke’s Imbiss Witty’s Curry mit Biss Curry Baude Langes Imbiss Kurfürstendamm 195, Schönhauser Allee 44B Wittenbergplatz 1 Tauentzienstraße 9-12, Badstraße 1-5 Holzhauserstraße 1 Mehringdamm 36 10707 Berlin 10961 Berlin 10435 Berlin 10789 Berlin 10789 Berlin 13597 Berlin 13509 Berlin

Cosmopolitan The post-Wall EUTHYMIA/FOTOLIA; VRD/FOTOLIA and democratic party town MASSIMO BORCHI/SIME/SCHAPOWALOW The German capital has become the political center Berlin has become a playground for millions of of Europe again, signifying a new chapter in the visitors from around the world. But remnants of its darker past Eat, drink, party city’s storied past | By Stefan Aust are still visible | By Alison Smale Berlin offers great choices to wine, dine and dance. Bars, restaurants and clubs – there is something for everyone. We have ten recommendations for you! ou’re still aware of it, but you the West, where European history was erlin – in many ways, it is fit- was mounted on the 60th anniversary in For a detailed feel of the Wall, it is well can hardly imagine it anymore, and is still being written – by peaceful ting that Berlin played host to 2013. And that exhibit in turn opens a worth it to make the journey to Bernauer even though some remnants of means. Perhaps a continuation of the the UEFA Champions League door into yet more deadly history. For it Straße, where a large open air display the wall remain as a reminder. conciliatory policies of a Bismarck, who final at the beginning of June is mounted on one corner of a building shows the division of the city at a point Berghain, Am Wriezner Bahnhof Kater Blau, Holzmarktstraße 25 Haubentaucher, Revalerstraße 99 Adnan, Mommsenstraße 63 YOnly when the train drivers go on strike always knew that politics isn’t just about –B even with no German team participat- which today is the Finance Ministry, but where houses themselves formed part Berghain is a world famous techno club, if not Kater Blau, managed by the same people who ran A new oasis for Berlin. In what used to be the old The most fashionable place to enjoy Italian food. again and the trains all grind to a halt, drilling through thick boards, but also ing. Not only is Germany the current started life in the 1930s as the Air Force of the Wall. Here, hundreds of people THE most famous. Techno fans from all over the the old Kater Holzig, is located on the opposite repair workshop for the Reichsbahn, or German The fantastic ambience and great service mean you find yourself longing for Tempelhof about balancing these. But even that is holder of the World Cup. Not only was ministry built for Hermann Göring, the succeeded in jumping or tunneling free; globe come here for an unforgettable night – or bank of the Spree. There’s yet another club on State Railway, raw Berlin urbanity meets laid-back you’ll immediately feel at home here. It also serves and PanAm and the short flights out of not without risk. A policy of equanimity the national celebration of the victori- No. 2 to Adolf Hitler. Even then it seems, scores died in the attempt. Voice record- more specifically nights in the plural – because at Holzmarktstraße, where Bar25 was once famous. A Mediterranean style. There’s an indoor and outdoor the best pizzas in town. the walled-in city. And when they strike can become a seesaw policy, short-term ous team held in Berlin, at the Bran- war must have been part of the Nazis’ ings of people involved – from escapees Berghain, you can dance to the best techno sounds night in Kater Blau triggers memories while stoking club with a huge pool. again, you hope for a new airlift, at least tactics can undermine long-term strat- denburg Gate. But it was Germany’s, calculations. Under the bulky ministry – to journalists and other contemporaries played by DJs from all over the world from Satur- interest in something new – for example the urban Borchardt, Französische Straße 47 until the present-day lunatics return to egy. Those who no longer know where and Berlin’s, hospitality and happiness once the largest office building in Europe – can be heard at special listening posts day night through to Monday morning. The queues village planned for the plot next door. Monkey Bar, Budapester Straße 40 Probably the most famous restaurant in Berlin. their senses. they stand can suddenly end up where at hosting the 2006 World Cup which – Göring had giant bunkers. Apparently, all along the one kilometer site. Opposite are always very long and there’s no guarantee you’ll The Monkey Bar is on the 10th floor of the Hotel Described as the “movie-makers living room and Otherwise Berlin is just a city again, they didn’t want to be. decisively put the newly imagined capital he anticipated having to use them, as the the open display are two glass houses get in, as the bouncers are notoriously selective. Prinz Charles, Prinzenstraße 85f “25hours”, with a roof terrace offering a sensa- the politicians’ dining room”. Dine here and you loud and shrill, unfinished and glitzy The Berlin Wall served as a magnifying of reunited Germany on the tourist map. “Thousand Year Reich” crumbled under with more exhibits. The most eye-catching feature of this club is the bar, tional view over the Zoo, the Memorial Church and can be sure to spot a few famous faces. and full of tourists and migrants from glass to track the Cold War narrative. Berlin is the most visited urban tourist the Allied assault on Berlin and Germany Why dwell on all this? Because it forms Watergate, Falckensteinstraße 49 which is in what used to be a swimming pool. The the Kudamm. The bar’s motto is “life is beautiful” all over the world, old and new federal To this day, again as though under a destination in Germany. Foreign visi- in 1945. the essential backdrop to today. After Watergate is on the Oberbaum Bridge directly on club area is equally extravagant, with dancing to – and the cocktails are to die for. Grill Royal, Friedrichstraße 105 states and those parts of the world that magnifying glass, Berlin’s government tors totaled some 4.5 million last year. This massive building – not much 1989, when first Communist governments the River Spree. The club has two rooms with huge electro beats every Friday and Saturday. Apart from If you like art and red meat, this is the place are even poorer and much less sexy than quarter brings global lines of conflict Foreign overnight stays have increased harmed – was first the seat of Soviet in Poland and Hungary, and then the windows affording a fantastic view of the river. The the club nights, cultural events are also held here. Butcher’s, Torstraße 116 for you – with both of these items featured the new Berlin. into stark relief. For example, in inves- from 7.45 million in 2009 to some 12.5 administration, then of an East German Berlin Wall and East Germany crumbled, DJs here play techno and house and if you’ve got heavily on the menu. When it comes to A metropolis, almost as large as it used tigative committees, above all in one, million last year. On any a great sense of opening To the rear of a snack stand behind a red tele- the stamina to stay up all night, you’ll get to see the last orders, the restaurant also runs an to be, before the wars, when the world the committee charged with shedding given weekend, a multi- was felt across central and phone booth, you’ll find the entrance to this sunrise over the Spree. open-end policy so you can dine at still appeared to be in imperial order light on the activities of the NSA in tude of languages is heard eastern Europe. Eventually, windowless cocktail bar with a vaguely disreputable feel. leisure into the night. and yet fragile, because rulers met the Germany. All lines converge here: how as young people from all the Soviet Union itself col- House of Weekend, Am Alexanderplatz 7 challenges and crises of the new era with much should a country allow itself to be over roam Berlin in search lapsed. While the end of The cocktails, mixed from That availability of Weekend is renowned for its large roof terrace high old methods. Here on the Spree, a naive spied on by Big Brother US, how close of its legendary techno, or the Cold War was swiftly high-quality spirits, are above Alexanderplatz in Berlin. There’s an incred- Emperor allowed himself to be dragged must their cooperation be in the fight simply a good time. The space was a key factor proclaimed, and much has served without any ible view over the whole city from here. The club into a devastating war by his bureaucrats against Jihadists, what data should be lack of a “Sperrstunde,’’ or changed irrevocably in pretensions and is open from Thursday to Sunday, with techno and and military strategists, supported by passed on, what do we get for it, what closing time, in many bars in Berlin becoming a the quarter-century since, are a true taste house usually on the decks. cronies and relatives on the thrones of should be revealed and what not, when has long given Berliners a creative hub. the enormity of events in sensation. neighboring countries, the revolution are we still an ally, when are we just reputation as night owls. 20th century Europe was was declared here, this was the arena a stooge and to what extent have we Now the rest of the world such that they definitely for battles between Spartacists and Nazi distanced ourselves from the alliance in joins in! were not eradicated, either paramilitaries, the place where Hitler cel- the meantime? Paris, Brussels, London, Behind these figures physically, or from minds. ebrated his takeover, where he paraded Washington, Moscow, Beijing, Jerusa- and images lurks a considerably more assembly that proclaimed that zone’s In Berlin, which sprawls over an area nine his troops, before they attacked Europe, lem, Erbil and not least Athens – they somber, murderous past. Today, Berlin “constitution’’ in 1949, and eventually times the size of the arrondissements of here the bombs rained down until no are all sending their envoys to Berlin may seem relaxed, tolerant and open to the seat of several East German min- Paris, there is space enough both to recall stone remained attached to another. The providing for movement in politics and many. But reminders of the times when isteries. As you face its main entrance, those events, and to build something Cold War began here. It also ended here, gridlock in the government quarter. this was not so are everywhere. the 1953 display is to your right. On the new. That availability of space – and when the Wall fell one night in Novem- There are few other capitals in the Walk around the circle encompassing left hand side of the building, near a still abandoned buildings – was a key factor in ber. Unexpected by all those who are world where politics and the public the Victory Pillar in the lush Tiergarten standing section of the grim Berlin Wall Berlin becoming a creative hub, a force to sponsored with endless taxes as a way of sphere are so close, where politicians, – you can’t fail to miss the giant statues (1961-1989) is a display chronicling how attract anyone with an idea to realize to foreseeing political developments. lobbyists and journalists, business man- of Bismarck and military men responsible one East German family used the House try to do it here, a cheaper cosmopolitan As long as the Brandenburg Gate was agers and artists rub shoulders to such for the Prussian victories the pillar com- of Ministeries to launch a (successful) bid center than ever more expensive places closed, sealed off on the western side an extent, day by day, night by night. A memorates. Go from there along June 17 to escape over the Wall. like London or New York. with an elegantly curved, meter-thick handful of restaurants serve as communal Street to the Brandenburg Gate and you Opposite that display, in turn, is the If all this seems heavy, that is because it wall, the German question remained watering holes for German and foreign will see the Soviet memorial, complete “Topography of Terror,’’ a detailed is much easier to find what is light – and open. Richard von Weizsäcker brought politicians, with Hollywood stars and with T-34 tanks, that Stalin made sure exhibit of how the Nazis rose, took you can celebrate that you are here for a history into sharp focus on this point. state premiers, German and European was built in 1945 to stamp on German power and fell. Visiting it properly takes European sports happening that 30 years And Willy Brandt, who as Mayor of parliamentarians, secret service agents and Allied minds the Soviet part in defeat- several hours, so perhaps it is something ago could never have been such a citywide, Berlin had to look on, angry and pow- and former US presidents sitting cheek- ing Nazism. for a future visit. cosmopolitan event in Berlin. Enjoy pedal- erless, as the Wall was built, could by-jowl at their dining tables – to the Speaking of June 17, that is a reference Anyone who wants more reminders of ing the mobile bike beer bars up and down hope that what belonged together astonishment of some foreign observers. to the day in 1953 when workers in Com- Nazi terror can go to the Jewish Museum the streets of the center. But look around at would now grow together. And that Here, the traditional political class is munist East Germany rebelled against the and/or walk to the nearby Holocaust what you see, for all those buildings, monu- wasn’t just divided Germany. The fall being eroded bit by bit. Stalinist system installed by Germans and Memorial adjacent to the Brandenburg ments and even the empty spaces represent of the Wall also allowed Europe to In some way it is cosmopolitan and their Soviet allies. If you go to Wilhelm- Gate. It is an indescribable monument, blood and treasure spilled and spent in and grow back together, eastern and western democratic, the new Berlin, and that’s strasse at the corner of Leipziger Straße, a not universally loved, but its labyrinth for this extraordinary city, so that today it Europe. And again, Berlin was right in quite something – after a history such as little southeast of the Brandenburg Gate, reflects the loss of orientation, values or can present itself in the enviable light of The Club der Visionäre is one of the the middle. A center, a bridge between this. n you will see a photo exhibit and placards a straight path forward that a modern being whole, and free. n most popular open air locations in the city. East and West. Where a woman from marking the protest, which was quickly visitor can only imagine as a small part of The bar is located right next to the River Spree. East Germany could become one of Stefan Aust has been publisher of the newspaper crushed by Soviet tanks and largely lost what millions of European Jews endured Alison Smale is the Berlin bureau chief of DJs play fine electro and Minimal there daily. the most influential political figures of “Die Welt” since 2014. in memory until this open-air display en route to their destruction. “The New York Times”. 18 June/July 2015 June/July 2015 19 Facing up to the past Media battle for the true faith Official Munich has not yet dealt with its Nazi past, but the former “capital of the movement” The public portrayal and self-image during the Reformation: now has a documentation center | By Peter H. Koepf “Luther and the princes” at Hartenfels Castle in Torgau | By Klaus Grimberg

ome, Mecca and and ice, and in the sun, under the Moscow. For Adolf heavens. They will lie here in the eaflets and printed works engravings and works created by elled to the town located upstream wife Anna in this chapel in 1548. Hitler, they all embod- open as an eternal symbol of the were the “new media” in goldsmiths and they adopted a clear on the Elbe River from Wittenberg He turned the Saxon court into ied a worldview. The German nation. For us, they are the early 16th century. It stand. Those princes who retained 50 kilometers away more than 40 one of the most magnificent in RFührer also wanted this kind of not dead.” is therefore completely their old faith were forced to com- times; Hartenfels Castle became Europe during his 30-year period symbolic place for his movement, The retired lieutenant respon- irrelevantL whether the university pete. For their part, they tried to the Elector’s “mighty fortress” as ruler. He was the ideal model of a point of identification and a sible for establishing the SS, lecturer Martin Luther actually ostentatiously underpin the faith through structural modifications a Lutheran prince for his contem- “cathedral” for celebrating the Josef Berchtold, wrote in the nailed his 95 theses on the sale by making particularly generous and extension work. poraries – scholarly, industrious political religion called National same paper: “Their martyrdom of indulgences within the Roman donations to the Catholic Church. Socialism. Of course his choice has arisen to become an infinite Catholic Church to the portal of The battle to find the right way was Munich, the city where the symbol of our commitment. Just the Castle Church in Wittenberg to God was also a fight for the The major players Nazi party, the NSDAP was estab- as the hour of death at the Feld- or not. Thanks to the invention most impressive self-portrayal at lished and “our movement wit- herrnhalle has become the hour of of printing a few years earlier, the that time too. More than 200 of the day were fully aware nessed the first blood sacrifices.” birth of the future Reich, the dead polemic pamphlet published on 31 items on loan from many major As Hitler phrased it: “The city have planted the seeds of today’s October 1517 spread like wildfire museums around the world visual- of the power of images must become the Moscow of our victory. When their names were in the German states. Within a ize this in a spectacular way at the movement.” called out, only a small group of very short time, it received a huge exhibition. even on the threshold of The “blood sacrifices” were National Socialists once answered number of “likes” – to put it in “If a prince manages to be a the modern age. the 16 men who lay dead on the ‘Here!’ Today, an entire nation modern terms. good father at home, a statesman square in front of the Feldher- cries out 'Here!' for the dead Can a believer reduce the pun- and a hero at the same time, he is rnhalle loggia after Hitler’s dil- of Nov. 9, 1923, and for the ishment for his or her sins with truly a great gift of God,” Luther This all had symbolic signifi- and disciplined. Because he was ettantish coup and a shoot-out murdered victims of our struggle. money? And can the church trade (1483-1546) commented once in cance: Founded on the religious also loyal to the empire and the with the police and Imperial Army The German people have been in these kinds of indulgences in one of his table conversations. He and academic authority of the Emperor, he played a key role in on November 9, 1923. On that resurrected, and with them, our order to increase its own riches? was fortunate with his own ruler: Reformers, the role model for the negotiating the Peace of Augsburg day, they had marched from the deeds.” Luther had a clear response to Elector Friedrich III of Saxony Lutheran version of the Prince of in 1555. Nine years after Luther’s Bürgerbräukeller tavern to the Every year of their regime there- these questions: “No”. (1463-1525), known as the Wise, the Holy Roman Empire emerged death, the German princes and town center with Hitler, former after, the Nazis celebrated the His criticism, however, went had Luther “kidnapped” in 1521 in Saxony. The Elector himself magistrates agreed to accept the field marshal Erich Ludendorff resurrection of the 16 “martyrs much deeper: Luther raised fun- after the imposition of the impe- became head of his state church peaceful coexistence of Protes- and thousands of other heavily of the movement” this way. Mil- damental questions about the rial ban against him and hid him as and represented it forcefully tant and Roman Catholic impe- armed Nazis. In a beer hall the lions of Hitler Youth and Nazi worldly and spiritual authority of Squire Jörg at the Wartburg Castle towards the outside world. rial estates. Their subjects had to day before, Hitler had fired a bullet Party members visited this NS the church hierarchy. In his view, near Eisenach. Luther translated The result of this attitude is follow the faith of their state rulers into the ceiling and declared the memorial and regarded the men God’s grace alone led to eternal the New Testament into German still visible in the Castle Chapel or they were allowed to migrate. “national revolution.” buried there as role models of self- life, but not the “intermediary there – using a popular language at Torgau, which Luther per- This provided the fulfilment of The revolution was postponed, sacrifice. Munich’s tourist center activities” of church dignitaries. In full of images. As a result, the sonally consecrated in 1544 as a word spoken by Luther: “The but in 1925 – after a short, cozy advertised the slogan “Capital other words, a system of bonuses HEIDELBERG © KURPFÄLZISCHES MUSEUM DER STADT bold intervention of Friedrich the the first new Protestant church princes do not have any power to stay in Landsberg Prison – Hitler of the Movement” and the new and penalties should not exist with On display in Torgau: Lucas Cranach’s late renaissance portrait of Wise on behalf of the outlawed building. The simple interior very order their subjects to do anything was able to celebrate the renais- sights to attract visitors. a view to purgatory and priests, Friedrich III (1463-1525), Elector of Saxony, from 1532. church revolutionary boosted the clearly illustrates his ideas of a against God’s commands.” n sance of the NSDAP in Munich. In 1945, Germany lay in ruins abbots and bishops should not Reformation in a decisive manner. renewed church: This was the After major election victories and the defeated Nazis were have the right to act as middlemen power and strengthen their politi- The major players of the day Torgau with its mighty Harten- meeting place of the church to throughout the empire, a jump in busily trying to forget the past. within this system. cal influence. were fully aware of the power of fels Castle was the residential town hear the preaching of the gospel. the number of members (by 1931: On the night of July 5, 1945, The German princes immedi- The exhibition entitled “Luther images even on the threshold of the of the Saxon Elector and became In accordance with this thinking, “Luther and the princes. The public portrayal and 430,000) and donations from Munich’s gravediggers removed ately recognized the explosive and the princes. The public por- modern age. The princes who had the political center of the Reforma- the pulpit became the central ele- self-image of rulers in the banks and industry, he moved the 16 bodies from the Temples of power of Luther’s efforts to trayal and self-image of rulers in joined Martin Luther’s Reforma- tion during the next few decades. ment for the church service; it was Reformation era.” into the new party headquarters. Honor. The plan was to bury them reform the church. They real- the Reformation era.” at Harten- tion surrounded themselves with a Luther was the most important placed in the middle. The altar, Torgau, Hartenfels Castle, until 31 The “Brown House” seemed like a somewhere else quickly, without ized that this would completely fels Castle in Torgau tells the story sense of pomp hitherto unknown adviser in religious policy matters on the other hand, forfeited its October; Tue-Sun: 10 a.m. – 6 p.m.; foreign body in the quiet, well-to- any publicity. redefine their relationship to the of this process. It is the first of four and celebrated their faith with both to Johann the Stable (1468- importance and was a simple table admission: EUR 10/7.50; do district of Königsplatz Square. On June 27, 1945, Mayor Karl Roman Curia. If the church lost “special national exhibitions” to splendid, sumptuous clothes and 1532 and particularly his son, supported by angels. catalog/volume of essays EUR 24 each; www.luther.skd.museum “On the roof of our new home, Scharnagl, who was appointed by its worldly power and riches, mark the 500th anniversary of the weapons. They communicated the Johann Friedrich the Magnani- The man later to become Elector on one of the most attractive the American occupying forces, they could consolidate their own Reformation. spirit of the new age in paintings, mous (1503-1554). Luther trav- August (1526-1586) married his squares in Munich, our symbol gave the gravediggers the fol- 15-03-27_027_ID072_eAZ_S21_GermanPacificTimes_290x260_RZgp is flying – to the joy of our- fol lowing instructions: “Any public lowers and the distress of our participation during the burials, opponents,” crowed the party or any kind of outward display media. Two years later, the Nazis whatsoever, must be avoided.” had taken control. The NDSAP On July 12, the director of “acquired” dozens of buildings in Munich’s municipal cemeter- the surrounding streets for their ies submitted his report to the party organization, including the mayor: “On July 5, 1945, the Nunciature - the diplomatic mis- bodies, or the remains thereof, sion of the Vatican - and the house were removed from the temples Highspeed of Jewish mathematics professor on Königsplatz Square without Alfred Pringsheim, Thomas Mann’ incident. The bodies were placed 2 powerful Herrenknecht TBMs for the father-in-law. in family gravesites or buried in CH. LINKS VERLAG rail link Stuttgart–Ulm. Subsection of a The district was transformed common graves. This was carried 1,500 km long high speed magistrale Rallying place and pilgrimage destination for practicing into a Nazi showplace. König- out at a time of day when the cem- across Europe. National Socialists: Königsplatz Square in the former “capital A detailed study, splatz Square had been a garden- of the movement.” In the background, the two Temples of Honor, published by etery was closed to the public.” like area with two museums, the behind the left one, the “Brown House” where the Nazi founding director The Munich officials decided Glyptothek and the State Antiqui- documentation center is located today. Winfried Nerdinger: to eradicate the former Nazi ties Collections in Munich, and the “Munich and National shrine. Even Karl Meitinger, Hightech Socialism”, published Propylaea gate on the west side. by C.H. Beck, 624 who had been head of the City Hitler had it converted into a huge pages, 38 Euro. Planning department under the First Maschine in action at Filder Tunnel. square where year after year, the Nazis, was busy thinking about Maximum safety in diffi cult geology requires Nazis could rally to conduct their the future. Speaking at the city precise tunnelling technology: The convertible gigantic memorial, requiem, and council’s first postwar meeting in Herrenknecht Multi-mode TBM (ø 10.82 m) bores resurrection services. August 1945, he said: “We must with screw conveyor or belt conveyor discharge. 21,545 granite tiles measuring 99 strive to salvage the form and x 99 cm each, two-thirds of them 5 A short and crisp book, recommended appearance of the old city center cm thick and the rest 10 cm thick, by The Atlantic Times: Mike Kopleck: at all costs.” He expressed the covered the square after construc- “Munich 1933–1945” from the series hope that, within a few decades, “Past finder. Traces of German History tion was completed in 1935. Not – A Guidebook”, published by Ch. Links, “our beloved Munich” would be a blade of grass was visible. On 110 pages, 13 Euro. restored to what it once was. The the east side of the square, which city would be the focus of a new had been open until then, they era of tourism, and its reputation built two Temples of Honor – the up the massive steps, the crowd cordon of SA soldiers. The “Horst as Germany’s city of the arts “altars” of the National Socialists’ struck up the Horst Wessel song: Wessel Song” blared from gigan- could flourish once again. To political religion – on the axis to the “Flag high, ranks closed, / The SA tic loudspeakers. Black smoke this end, he said that Königsplatz Brown House. Next to them, the marches with silent solid steps. / billowed from the 400 blazing Square should be “de-Nazified” large party buildings, the “Führer Comrades shot by the red front pylons along the route, each bear- and the Temples of Honor torn Building” and the administrative and reaction / March in spirit with ing the name of one of the “mar- down. building on the Pringsheim prop- us in our ranks.” tyrs” of the movement in gold Munich has managed to avoid erty, dominated the skyline. That morning, Munich was letters. Flag-bearing delegations building a memorial to the past. From that time on, Königsplatz awakened by a 16-gun salute. The from the Nazi administrative The former “capital of the Nazi Square was a Mecca for practicing Nazis had gathered again at the districts stood nearby. As Hitler movement” has transformed into Highlights National Socialists and the Tem- Bürgerbräukeller tavern to com- passed each pylon, the name of the “Weltstadt mit Herz” (cosmo- Gotthard, Hallandsås, Crossrail, S21: ples of Honor were the “national memorate the infamous march the “martyr” was announced over politan city with a heart). And Herrenknecht tunnelling technology shrines of the German people.” to Feldherrnhalle of 1923. From the loudspeakers. on May 1, the city faced up to its creates unique rail connections. Twenty fluted columns towering 1935 onwards, the “old com- The caskets were taken on car- past. n Contractors: 7 m into the sky were arranged rades” and the party members riages to Königsplatz Square. Filder Tunnel ARGE ATCOST 21 / Bossler Tunnel ARGE ATA on two 21-meter-wide limestone extended the warlike demonstra- When the first carriage arrived, Peter H. Koepf is Editor-in-Chief of The Porr Bau GmbH Tunnelbau Atlantic Times. He is the author of the G. Hinteregger & Söhne Baugesellschaft m.b.H. pedestals. The columns supported tion, ending their march at König- a shot was fired and the flags book “Der Königsplatz in München. Ein Östu-Stettin Hoch-und Tiefbau GmbH an open roof built of steel and con- splatz Square. were lowered. Veteran soldiers deutscher Ort,” published by Ch. Links Swietelsky Baugesellschaft m.b.H. crete. Etched glass mosaics deco- Julius Streicher led the silent pro- placed the caskets on the podium. Verlag, Berlin, 2005. rated the underside. Each temple cession. Behind him were three Two large swastika banners were housed eight sarcophagi with the IMAGO/EPD men bearing the “Blutfahne” (lit- raised in unison. corpses of the 16 “martyrs” from Munich was Adolf Hitler’s city. In Munich, he painted his pictures, erally, blood flag), a relic salvaged The “Völkischer Beobachter,” November 1923. his party was born and matured in Munich, in Munich the Nazis from the 1923 street battle. Hitler the Nazi newspaper, reported that During a mythical two-day cer- celebrated their bizarre political religion, and the city enjoyed being was flanked by veteran fighters the ceremony had transformed emony, Hitler had brought his dead called the “capital of the movement.” After 1945, Munich swept this and followed by members of his Königsplatz Square into “a Pioneering Underground Technologies comrades to their final resting place. reality under the carpet. The city was silently ashamed of its Nazi past “Blood Order,” SA and SS troops, mighty forum for the movement.” Twelve years after the attempted and successfully avoided building a center for documenting Munich’s Hitler Youth, and paramilitary The heroes were now resting in National Socialist history. On May 1, 2015, Munich finally dedicated its coup, on Nov. 7, 1935, the 16 Nazi documentation center. It occupies the place of the formed NSDAP troops – accompanied by the the Nazi Party’s “holy shrine.” bodies were exhumed and taken to party headquarters, directly on Königsplatz Square. If you hurry, you monotonous beat of marching Hitler proclaimed: “Just as they www.herrenknecht.com the Feldherrnhalle, escorted by SA can take advantage of the free admission period – from Tuesday-Sunday drummers. marched fearlessly, so too shall storm troops. After the pallbearers (10 a.m.-7 p.m.) until July 31, 2015. Tens of thousands of spectators they lie in the wind and weather, ceremoniously carried the caskets stood along the route lined by a in the storms and rain, in the snow

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