No. 2437 SYRIA and JORDAN Agreement Concerning The
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The Dynamics of Syria's Civil
CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Browse Reports & Bookstore TERRORISM AND Make a charitable contribution HOMELAND SECURITY For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Corporation View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. RAND perspectives (PEs) present informed perspective on a timely topic that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND perspectives undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Perspective C O R P O R A T I O N Expert insights on a timely policy issue The Dynamics of Syria’s Civil War Brian Michael Jenkins Principal Observations One-third of the population has fled the country or has been displaced internally. -
Next Steps in Syria
Next Steps in Syria BY JUDITH S. YAPHE early three years since the start of the Syrian civil war, no clear winner is in sight. Assassinations and defections of civilian and military loyalists close to President Bashar Nal-Assad, rebel success in parts of Aleppo and other key towns, and the spread of vio- lence to Damascus itself suggest that the regime is losing ground to its opposition. The tenacity of government forces in retaking territory lost to rebel factions, such as the key town of Qusayr, and attacks on Turkish and Lebanese military targets indicate, however, that the regime can win because of superior military equipment, especially airpower and missiles, and help from Iran and Hizballah. No one is prepared to confidently predict when the regime will collapse or if its oppo- nents can win. At this point several assessments seem clear: ■■ The Syrian opposition will continue to reject any compromise that keeps Assad in power and imposes a transitional government that includes loyalists of the current Baathist regime. While a compromise could ensure continuity of government and a degree of institutional sta- bility, it will almost certainly lead to protracted unrest and reprisals, especially if regime appoin- tees and loyalists remain in control of the police and internal security services. ■■ How Assad goes matters. He could be removed by coup, assassination, or an arranged exile. Whether by external or internal means, building a compromise transitional government after Assad will be complicated by three factors: disarray in the Syrian opposition, disagreement among United Nations (UN) Security Council members, and an intransigent sitting govern- ment. -
Automatic Exchange of Information: Status of Commitments
As of 27 September 2021 AUTOMATIC EXCHANGE OF INFORMATION (AEOI): STATUS OF COMMITMENTS1 JURISDICTIONS UNDERTAKING FIRST EXCHANGES IN 2017 (49) Anguilla, Argentina, Belgium, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Bulgaria, Cayman Islands, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus2, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Guernsey, Hungary, Iceland, India, Ireland, Isle of Man, Italy, Jersey, Korea, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, Montserrat, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Seychelles, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Turks and Caicos Islands, United Kingdom JURISDICTIONS UNDERTAKING FIRST EXCHANGES BY 2018 (51) Andorra, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan3, The Bahamas, Bahrain, Barbados, Belize, Brazil, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Curacao, Dominica4, Greenland, Grenada, Hong Kong (China), Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Lebanon, Macau (China), Malaysia, Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Monaco, Nauru, New Zealand, Niue4, Pakistan3, Panama, Qatar, Russia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sint Maarten4, Switzerland, Trinidad and Tobago4, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Uruguay, Vanuatu JURISDICTIONS UNDERTAKING FIRST EXCHANGES BY 2019 (2) Ghana3, Kuwait5 JURISDICTIONS UNDERTAKING FIRST EXCHANGES BY 2020 (3) Nigeria3, Oman5, Peru3 JURISDICTIONS UNDERTAKING FIRST EXCHANGES BY 2021 (3) Albania3, 7, Ecuador3, Kazakhstan6 -
Syria, April 2005
Library of Congress – Federal Research Division Country Profile: Syria, April 2005 COUNTRY PROFILE: SYRIA April 2005 COUNTRY Formal Name: Syrian Arab Republic (Al Jumhuriyah al Arabiyah as Suriyah). Short Form: Syria. Term for Citizen(s): Syrian(s). Capital: Damascus (population estimated at 5 million in 2004). Other Major Cities: Aleppo (4.5 million), Homs (1.8 million), Hamah (1.6 million), Al Hasakah (1.3 million), Idlib (1.2 million), and Latakia (1 million). Independence: Syrians celebrate their independence on April 17, known as Evacuation Day, in commemoration of the departure of French forces in 1946. Public Holidays: Public holidays observed in Syria include New Year’s Day (January 1); Revolution Day (March 8); Evacuation Day (April 17); Egypt’s Revolution Day (July 23); Union of Syria, Egypt, and Libya (September 1); Martyrs’ Day, to commemorate the public hanging of 21 dissidents in 1916 (May 6); the beginning of the 1973 October War (October 6); National Day (November 16); and Christmas Day (December 25). Religious feasts with movable dates include Eid al Adha, the Feast of the Sacrifice; Muharram, the Islamic New Year; Greek Orthodox Easter; Mouloud/Yum an Nabi, celebration of the birth of Muhammad; Leilat al Meiraj, Ascension of Muhammad; and Eid al Fitr, the end of Ramadan. In 2005 movable holidays will be celebrated as follows: Eid al Adha, January 21; Muharram, February 10; Greek Orthodox Easter, April 29–May 2; Mouloud, April 21; Leilat al Meiraj, September 2; and Eid al Fitr, November 4. Flag: The Syrian flag consists of three equal horizontal stripes of red, white, and black with two small green, five-pointed stars in the middle of the white stripe. -
The Syrian Civil War a New Stage, but Is It the Final One?
THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR A NEW STAGE, BUT IS IT THE FINAL ONE? ROBERT S. FORD APRIL 2019 POLICY PAPER 2019-8 CONTENTS * SUMMARY * 1 INTRODUCTION * 3 BEGINNING OF THE CONFLICT, 2011-14 * 4 DYNAMICS OF THE WAR, 2015-18 * 11 FAILED NEGOTIATIONS * 14 BRINGING THE CONFLICT TO A CLOSE * 18 CONCLUSION © The Middle East Institute The Middle East Institute 1319 18th Street NW Washington, D.C. 20036 SUMMARY Eight years on, the Syrian civil war is finally winding down. The government of Bashar al-Assad has largely won, but the cost has been steep. The economy is shattered, there are more than 5 million Syrian refugees abroad, and the government lacks the resources to rebuild. Any chance that the Syrian opposition could compel the regime to negotiate a national unity government that limited or ended Assad’s role collapsed with the entry of the Russian military in mid- 2015 and the Obama administration’s decision not to counter-escalate. The country remains divided into three zones, each in the hands of a different group and supported by foreign forces. The first, under government control with backing from Iran and Russia, encompasses much of the country, and all of its major cities. The second, in the east, is in the hands of a Kurdish-Arab force backed by the U.S. The third, in the northwest, is under Turkish control, with a mix of opposition forces dominated by Islamic extremists. The Syrian government will not accept partition and is ultimately likely to reassert its control in the eastern and northwestern zones. -
Aramaeans Outside of Syria 1. Assyria Martti Nissinen 1. Aramaeans
CHAPTER NINE OUTLOOK: ARAMAEANS OUTSIDE OF SYRIA 1. Assyria Martti Nissinen 1. Aramaeans and the Neo-Assyrian Empire (934–609 B.C.)1 Encounters between the Aramaeans and the Assyrians are as old as is the occupation of these two ethnic entities in the area between the Tigris and the Khabur rivers and in northern Mesopotamia. The first occurrence of the word ar(a)māyu in the Assyrian records is to be found in the inscriptions of Tiglath-Pileser I (1114–1076 B.C.), who gives an account of his confronta- tion with the “Aramaean Aḫlamaeans” (aḫlamû armāya) along the Middle Euphrates;2 however, the presence of the Aramaean tribes in this area is considerably older.3 The Assyrians had governed the Khabur Valley in the 13th century already, but the movement of the Aramaean tribes from the west presented a constant threat to the Assyrian supremacy in the area. Tiglath-Pileser I and his follower, Aššur-bēl-kala (1073–1056 B.C.), fought successfully against the Aramaeans, but in the long run, the Assyrians were not able to maintain control over the Lower Khabur–Middle Euphrates region. Assur-dān (934–912 B.C.) and Adad-nirari II (911–891 B.C.) man- aged to regain the area between the Tigris and the Khabur occupied by the Aramaeans, but the Khabur Valley was never under one ruler, and even the campaigns of Assurnasirpal II (883–859 B.C.) did not consolidate the Assyrian dominion. Under Shalmaneser III (858–824 B.C.) the area east of the Euphrates came under Assyrian control, but it was not until the 1 I would like to thank the Institute for Advanced Study (Princeton, NJ, USA) for the opportunity of writing this article during a research visit in May–June, 2011. -
Syria Situation
SYRIA SITUATION The Syria situation entered its tenth year in 2020 with more than 5.5 million Syrian refugees hosted by neighbouring countries, of whom 45% are children and 21% are women. Living conditions are precarious, with more than UNHCR’s overall requirements for the Syria 60% of Syrian refugees living in poverty. UNHCR situation in 2020 stand at $1.991 billion. As of 25 and UNDP continue to co-lead the Regional August 2020, $684.9 million have been received. Refugee and Resilience Plan in response to the Flexible and country-level funds received by Syria crisis (3RP), coordinating the work of more UNHCR have allowed the organization to allocate than 270 partners in the five main hosting an additional $66.4 million to the Syria situation, countries. Inside the Syrian Arab Republic (Syria), raising the current funding level to 38%. These SYRIA UNHCR continues to support IDPs through low funding levels have forced UNHCR’s protection activities, core relief items and shelter operations in neighbouring countries to cut or SITUATION activities, while also mobilizing emergency reduce some programmes. Further cuts are responses to new displacement. expected in the second half of 2020 if more funding is not received. Three siblings walk with their father through the rubble of their neighbourhood in Homs. UNHCR/VIVIAN TOU’MEH © AFFECTED COUNTRIES KEY POPULATION DATA $1.991 BILLION (AS OF 30 JUNE 2020) UNHCR's financial requirements 2020, as of 25 August 2020 5.5 million Funding shortfall Syrian refugees and asylum- $1.240 BILLION TURKEY -
Lebanon: Syria Crisis ECHO FACTSHEET
Lebanon: Syria Crisis ECHO FACTSHEET shortage Facts & Figures Number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon: 1.07 million Number of Palestine refugees from Syria: 42 000 Number of Palestine refugees: 450 000 Number of Iraqi refugees: 6 000 (Source: UNHCR, UNRWA) Photo credit: UNHCR/Sara Hoibak Key messages Total European Commission funding for Lebanon since Lebanon is the neighbouring country hardest hit by the the start of the Syria crisis, hosting more than 1.1 million Syrian refugees. crisis: With other refugee communities also living there, Lebanon has Almost €552 million, the world’s largest number of refugees per capita. including Access to Lebanon by those fleeing the conflict in €269.1 million Syria has become close to impossible since the beginning of from the humanitarian 2015 with the enforcement of strict regulations by the budget for Syrian Government of Lebanon. refugees and host communities The European Commission commends the government and people of Lebanon for its generosity but it is increasingly concerned about the deteriorating protection space and Humanitarian Aid and living conditions of the most vulnerable refugees. An Civil Protection increasing number of refugees are being forced to become B-1049 Brussels, Belgium undocumented, which raises concerns over their ability to move Tel.: (+32 2) 295 44 00 and access services and exposes them to abuse and Fax: (+32 2) 295 45 72 email: harassment. [email protected] The European Commission is committed to continuing its Website: http://ec.europa.eu/echo support to Lebanon and the humanitarian community in providing assistance to Syrian refugees and vulnerable Lebanese. -
Cooperative Border Security for Jordan: Assessment and Options
<. -.. , ,. .. CMC ,, OCCASIONALPAPERS ., ...-. Cooperative Border Security for Jordan: Assessment and Options Colonel Mazen Qojas Jordan Army G CENTER .- -..., .,%.. ,. ,.,..< +-”-- ,. %---- “---- ~~ ,,. /“““ ‘-%. ---- “’\ >“’”””’“’ Issued by Sandia National Laboratories, operated for the United States Department of Energy by Sandia Corporation. NOTICE: This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their contractors or subcontractors. The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their contractors. Printed in the United States of America. This report has been reproduced directly from the best available copy. Available to DOE and DOE contractors from Office of Scientific and Technical Information PO BOX62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831 Prices available from (61 5) 576-8401, FTS 626-8401 Available to the public from National Technical Information Service US Department of Commerce 5285 Port Royal Rd. Springfield, VA 22161 NTIS price codes Printed Copy: A03 Microfiche Copy: AO1 SAND 98-0505/8 Unlimited Release March 1999 Cooperative Border Security for Jordan: Assessment and Options Col. -
UK Home Office
Country Policy and Information Note Syria: the Syrian Civil War Version 4.0 August 2020 Preface Purpose This note provides country of origin information (COI) and analysis of COI for use by Home Office decision makers handling particular types of protection and human rights claims (as set out in the Introduction section). It is not intended to be an exhaustive survey of a particular subject or theme. It is split into two main sections: (1) analysis and assessment of COI and other evidence; and (2) COI. These are explained in more detail below. Assessment This section analyses the evidence relevant to this note – i.e. the COI section; refugee/human rights laws and policies; and applicable caselaw – by describing this and its inter-relationships, and provides an assessment of, in general, whether one or more of the following applies: x A person is reasonably likely to face a real risk of persecution or serious harm x The general humanitarian situation is so severe as to breach Article 15(b) of European Council Directive 2004/83/EC (the Qualification Directive) / Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights as transposed in paragraph 339C and 339CA(iii) of the Immigration Rules x The security situation presents a real risk to a civilian’s life or person such that it would breach Article 15(c) of the Qualification Directive as transposed in paragraph 339C and 339CA(iv) of the Immigration Rules x A person is able to obtain protection from the state (or quasi state bodies) x A person is reasonably able to relocate within a country or territory x A claim is likely to justify granting asylum, humanitarian protection or other form of leave, and x If a claim is refused, it is likely or unlikely to be certifiable as ‘clearly unfounded’ under section 94 of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002. -
Mapping Peace Between Syria and Israel
UNiteD StateS iNStitUte of peaCe www.usip.org SpeCial REPORT 1200 17th Street NW • Washington, DC 20036 • 202.457.1700 • fax 202.429.6063 ABOUT THE REPO R T Frederic C. Hof Commissioned in mid-2008 by the United States Institute of Peace’s Center for Mediation and Conflict Resolution, this report builds upon two previous groundbreaking works by the author that deal with the obstacles to Syrian- Israeli peace and propose potential ways around them: a 1999 Middle East Insight monograph that defined the Mapping peace between phrase “line of June 4, 1967” in its Israeli-Syrian context, and a 2002 Israel-Syria “Treaty of Peace” drafted for the International Crisis Group. Both works are published Syria and israel online at www.usip.org as companion pieces to this report and expand upon a concept first broached by the author in his 1999 monograph: a Jordan Valley–Golan Heights Environmental Preserve under Syrian sovereignty that Summary would protect key water resources and facilitate Syrian- • Syrian-Israeli “proximity” peace talks orchestrated by Turkey in 2008 revived a Israeli people-to-people contacts. long-dormant track of the Arab-Israeli peace process. Although the talks were sus- Frederic C. Hof is the CEO of AALC, Ltd., an Arlington, pended because of Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip, Israeli-Syrian peace Virginia, international business consulting firm. He directed might well facilitate a Palestinian state at peace with Israel. the field operations of the Sharm El-Sheikh (Mitchell) Fact- Finding Committee in 2001. • Syria’s “bottom line” for peace with Israel is the return of all the land seized from it by Israel in June 1967. -
Egypt & Jordan
G E O T O U R S EGYPT & JORDAN JANUARY 24 – FEBRUARY 10, 2021 PALAWAN EGYPT & JORDAN = $2890 (16 days/15 nights in Egypt & Jordan) Included – Hotels, breakfasts, 3 lunches, 4 dinners, entries, flight from Cairo to Amman, transportation, guides, Matt and/or Suzan Ebiner as group leader Not Included – Airfare from USA (about $800); meals not listed above, tips to guides and drivers Highlights: Pyramids & Sphinx of Giza, Cairo (Citadel, Khan el Khalili bazaar, Egyptian Museum with King Tut’s treasures), Camel Ride to an old desert monastery, Nubian village and dinner, Luxor (Valley of the Kings and Hatshepsut Temple), Felucca (traditional sailboat) ride on the Nile River from Aswan to Kom Ombo (1 night sleeping on deck on the Nile riverbank); Jordan: Wadi Rum (desert safari and camp, Bedouin culture); Petra (ancient city carved into stone cliffs; one of the greatest archeological sites in the world); Madaba (Byzantine mosaics), Dead Sea (float in the saltiest, lowest body of water on earth), Amman (Jordan’s capital); Jerash (great ancient Roman city) Sun 1/24/21 Depart USA to Egypt Depart the USA for Cairo, Egypt Mon 1/25/21 Arrive Cairo, Egypt Welcome to Egypt! Two nights in Cairo at Pyramisa Suites Hotel (5*) or equivalent. Tue 1/26/21 Cairo Spend a full day in Cairo to enjoy some of Egypt’s highlights. Start at the Pyramids and Sphinx, and marvel at the most famous ancient site on the planet. For extra cost you can ride a camel or go inside the interior of one of the pyramids.