sign in sign up
<<
Home , Jordan, Syria

April 2019

The Impact of the Crisis on ’s Terrorist Threat

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

In the past years Jordan has been facing by ISIS in 2015). The and its allied multidimensional risks from some of its forces pushed these Islamists, who were already neighboring , as the conflicts in Syria based in the south, such as the Nusra Front or and have created unstable regions, Khalid ibn al-Walid Army1, towards the Jordanian placing Jordan in the middle of the “global red border in order to encourage the Jordanians to zone” of . engage with them. As the Syrian army pursued this strategy, violent clashes in border towns The external threats have included direct increased as car bombs and other attacks were confrontation with militant non-state actors such launched by terrorist groups aiming to escalate as Al-Nusra or ISIS on the Syrian-Jordanian border, the situation and to create chaos on Syria’s as well as the increased risk of terrorist attacks southern . While Jordan managed to being carried out on Jordanian soil by avoid direct conflict with any of these terrorist experienced, battle-hardened terrorists. groups for a while, this strategy did not last for Previously, Jordan had been relatively spared long. Jordan was forced into direct confrontation from Islamist attacks, with the marked exemption to defend its borders, which risked evolvement of three simultaneous hotel bombings in Jordan’s into fierce fighting and to spread across a larger capital , conducted by al-Qaeda in Iraq geographical . The turning point regarding (AQI) in 2005. Jordan’s strategy was the terrorist attack on the Jordanian access point for the Syrian , at Impact on border security the camp in Ruqban in 2016.

Since the outbreak of the Syria crisis and the The Russian-Turkish-Iranian agreement that was threat of confrontation with militants at the signed in the following year, in May 2017, and Jordanian border as well as the entrance of which divided Syria into four “de-confliction fighters into Jordan, the Kingdom's strategic zones”, monitored by international troops, was position throughout the Syrian crisis had been to thus a good option for Jordan. It had the potential especially secure its borders, as the main source to prevent the southern part of the from of the external threat. Regarding the threat of collapsing into chaos and meant that Jordan direct confrontation at the border, this was would not have to face the threat on its own. At complicated by the rocky relationship between that stage, the more partners engaged in the the Jordanian and Syrian regimes over the years. stabilization of Syria, the higher was the potential There was little trust as the Syrian regime was for success and the lower the risk of militant suspicious of Jordanian actions, assuming elements crossing the border into Jordan especially that Jordan was exclusively attacking

ISIS and no other militant groups such as Al Nusra 1 Jaysh ﺟﯾش ﺧﺎﻟد ﺑن اﻟوﻟﯾد :Jordan became actively engaged in fighting ISIS The Khalid ibn al-Walid Army () Khalid ibn al-Waleed) was an armed Salafi jihadist group active in militarily after Jordanian pilot Kasasbeh was killed . Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. 2

especially following the fall of and Mossul result of the fall of ISIS central command. These in mid and late 2017. cells’ strategy seems to be clear: test Jordan’s Since the driving out of ISIS forces from both national security by seeking to cause internal cities in mid and late 2017, Jordan has witnessed dispute and civil unrest. The deteriorating and confronted ISIS operatives right on its economic conditions within the kingdom can borders and feared that ISIS fighters might provide a fertile soil for such attempts. Several penetrate these. This fear was exacerbated by factors are making it more difficult for the the fact that following ISIS’ loss of its two previous Jordanian authorities to deal with them: The strongholds and Raqqa, the group evolution of Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) into ISIS in the changed its tactics. It no longer had a strong base past years was accompanied by the dramatic for military operations and returned to the increase of resources of finance, commerce, model of operation. led exchange and weaponry to the group. Moreover, by trained veterans of a multifaceted war that ISIS started building a stronger relationship with required intelligence and cunning to survive. organized crime, embedding militant groups They have battle-hardened and resilient soldiers deeper within Jordanian society. with increased technical knowledge training the next generation of radicalized youth. They have Further, the recent attacks on Jordanian soil for formed dispersed and isolated cells, which has example in Baqa, Kerak, Fuhies and Salt2 change led to the creation of smaller, more radicalized the anti-terrorism battleground for the Jordanian groups competing to attract recruits and funding authorities. Jordan’s authorities have so far not within Syria. The fear is that these dynamics been used to countering militant cells that might spill over into Jordan. operate locally, within Jordanian territory, as their fight against terrorism had so far mainly been an “intelligence war” with a focus on preventive As a result of these two threats, the one of direct measures. What makes it more difficult for the confrontation at the border as well as the one of authorities to prevent such attacks is the fact that spill-over terrorism, Jordan needed a new way of the recent terrorist attacks in Jordan were confronting these, not just militarily and undertaken by locals who, while radicalized, were logistically but also politically. Jordan needed successfully able to hide their beliefs while strong relationships with Iraqi and Syrian planning, preparing and then taking the counterparts as well as the capacity to build authorities by surprise. These attacks show the strong alliances with countries that would help ability of terrorists to deal and operate within Jordan in taking actions on the ground to territory that is under strong security control. confront these threats. For Jordan’s national security, it was imperative to have a reliable Moreover, new threats are likely to emerge as the partner on the Syrian side to coordinate security militants’ battle in Syrian and the militants’ issues. After the battle of , when the city losses here seem to be resulting in regroupings was recaptured by the Syrian army in 2016, there within the militant spectrum. Militants are were not many options other than and the Syrian Army. However, Jordan was increasing its 2 In June 2016, five Jordanian intelligence officers were killed by efforts to stabilize the border regions by terrorists in the largest Palestinian of Baqa just expanding the ceasefire and encouraging outside Amman. In 2016, a group of unidentified oppositional groups to join the political process. militants ambushed emergency responders who were dispatched to a false fire call and then moved into the city of Kerak in Jordan’s south, killing 14 people and injuring 37 in total. The attackers took refuge in , with tourists Impact on the Jordanian Jihadist Scene hiding inside until Jordanian forces besieged the castle and killed the four terrorists. In August 2018, terrorists detonated a home-made bomb under a police car guarding a music festival As Jordan’s borders have been secured relatively in the predominately Christian town of , which killed a successfully by the Jordanian army, despite the police officer. The following day, Jordanian authorities traced multiple attempts to penetrate them, militant the terrorists to a building in the nearby city of Salt and after hours of gunfighting the terrorists set off explosions in groups including ISIS complemented building, resulting in the deaths of three of the terrorists as well their efforts to destabilize the border region with as three members of the security forces. Five terrorists were establishing dormant cells, scattered throughout also detained, and it was reported that the cell planned further attacks on security installations and other sensitive targets Jordan. These are assumed to be operating in designed to destabilize Jordan as a pro-Western country in the relative isolation from each other especially as a region.

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. 3

considering new strategies to compensate their might reinforce ISIS-al-Qaeda competition over current losses which will likely lead them further followers there. As the socio-economic situation out of Syria. There is also an emerging group, is worsening in the kingdom, this may provide a with many Jordanian members, calling itself “The breeding ground for militant groups also in the Guardians of Religion” Hurras al Din, which may future. rise to become a relevant terrorist group in the region. The group is known to be connected to So far the Jordanian response to these threats , one of ’s can be considered to have been relatively sons, who is emerging now as a charismatic effective, as in 2018 alone over 60 attacks have figure representing the new generation of al- been prevented. But the authorities’ response Qaeda. As the group includes various Jordanian has to be further adapted in the light of the new members in its Shura council, such as, Abu Jilibib Tubasi and Abu Khadija al-Urduni who left the phenomenon of local terrorists with high terrorist group Jadbaht Fateh al-Sham in 2016 due technical knowledge gained from the Syrian to its reported disassociation from al-Qaeda, it experience, planning and operating within remains open in how far this new group will Jordanian borders. impact the local Jordanian militant scene and

www.kas.de