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MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Dispute Over Natural Gas Exploration in the Mediterranean OE Watch Commentary: The discovery of natural gas reserves in the continues to cause tension in the region. This tension impacts power dynamics among littoral states but also among other and companies. In January 2019, several countries including the of , Greece, , , Jordan, and formed the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum to foster cooperation on natural gas and oil reserves in the region. perceived this forum as a threat because it excluded Turkey and (which Turkey considers the ‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus’). The accompanying article from state-funded Anadolu Ajansı discusses Turkey’s perspectives on the issue. According to the article, the discovery of hydrocarbon reserves could have contributed to the resolution of the Cyprus issue, but the attitudes of the Republic of Cyprus and Greece towards Turkish Cypriots and Turkey make this outcome unlikely; in fact, it escalates the situation further. The Republic of Cyprus’s recent announcement of an agreement with France allowing the French to establish a naval base on Cyprus adds another layer Eastern Mediterranean basins including Levent basin and oil and gas fields. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (eia) via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Eastern_ of complexity: France may stop Turkey from disrupting French petroleum Mediterranean_basins_including_Levent_basin_and_oil_and_gas_fields.png, Public Domain. company Total’s hydrocarbon exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean. The article argues that Greece and the Republic of Cyprus purposefully involved other member countries to gain the leverage to limit Turkey’s access to areas to drill for hydrocarbon reserves. Therefore, the author argues that tensions will continue to escalate in the region. Second, from the Turkish perspective the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) declared by the Republic of Cyprus violate international law under the London and Zurich Agreements of 1959 that created the constitution of Cyprus and the rights of Turkey and Cypriot Turks over natural gas reserves. Also, the Republic of Cyprus signed EEZ delimitation agreements with Egypt, , and Israel without consulting with the Turkish side. Turkey opposes these unilateral actions of the Republic of Cyprus and will prevent any natural gas drilling attempts in EEZ areas that overlap with areas that Turkey lays claim to. The Turkish Navy has previously interrupted drilling activities of ships commissioned by the Republic of Cyprus. The other issue that falls under international law is the violation of Turkey’s right over its continental shelf. Turkey considers the methods by which Greece and the Republic of Cyprus determined the EEZ, to be in violation of the Convention on the Law of the Sea of 1982. Finally, the author highlights Turkey’s concern over energy security. Currently, Turkey imports nearly 99 percent of its natural gas and 89 percent of its petroleum needs. The energy reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean could reduce Turkey’s energy dependence on countries such as and create a secure energy supply for its citizens. As such, other countries engaging in energy discovery and drilling in the Eastern Mediterranean pose a threat to Turkey’s energy security. The author notes that reginal states should shift to a more collaborative approach to help regional energy and security stability. End OE Watch Commentary (Gündüz) “The potential of approximately 1.7 billion barrels of oil and 122 trillion cubic feet of gas… has made the region a new of struggle and crisis.”

Source: İlhan Sağsen, “Yeni bir kriz ve mücadele alanı: Doğu Akdeniz (A new area of crisis and struggle: Eastern Mediterranean),” Anadolu Ajansı, 22 May 2019. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/yeni-bir-kriz-ve-mucadele-alani-dogu-akdeniz/1484415#

According to the US Geological Survey, the Eastern Mediterranean has the potential of producing approximately 1.7 billion barrels of oil and 122 trillion cubic feet of gas. This has begun to attract the attention of the ’s leading energy companies and regional countries that have high demand for energy as well as the other countries in the region. This situation has made the region a new area of struggle and crisis… Within this framework, the issue can be handled in three dimensions for the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean: the Cyprus problem, international law and energy security. One of the major actors of the region, Turkey is developing its policies through these three dimensions. When the approaches of the Greek Cypriot Administration of Cyprus (GCAC) are evaluated, it is seen that, unfortunately, it adds another dimension to the Cyprus problem and a new non-solution. One of the most important security problems in the region is the fact that the Republic of Cyprus, Israel and Greece have acted in violation of the rights of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC)… Looking at the issue in terms of international law, Turkey argues that Turkey and the TRNC have rights over the that the GCAC has declared without consulting the TRNC… Turkey and Northern Cypriot Turks have rights under the London and Zurich Agreements… The third major dimension of Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics is energy security. This issue closely interests Turkey because of its need for energy security as well as its position within the energy trade… For actors who need energy as do the EU and Turkey, the Eastern Mediterranean energy reserves is a critical resource to have access to.

OE Watch | July 2019 45