MIDDLESBROUGH TOWN CENTRE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT DECEMBER 2018 REPORT TO MIDDLESBROUGH COUNCIL
Prepared by
Part of Savills Contents
1. FOREWORD Including basis of instruction and overview of recommendations 3
2. BACKGROUND Including reference to findings of Middlesbrough Retail Study (2016) and Middlesbrough Investment Prospectus (2017) 5
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Including basket of comparable locations 5
4. QUANTITATIVE FINDINGS - Land use, including vacancies 6 - Residential and employee numbers 6 - Sales data 7 - Transport data – car parking, bus, train travel 8 - Crime and anti-social behaviour 9 - Customer profiling (particularly of greater catchment area) 10 - Business and consumer questionnaires 13 - Non-user telephone research (sample of 500 completed surveys) 13
5. QUALITATIVE FINDINGS - Flâneurs and street walkers (including assessment of first impressions) 14 - Assessment of communications and engagement 16 - DNA workshops and stakeholder interviews 17 - Priority future use of land and buildings 18 - SWOT analysis 18
6. CONSOLIDATED FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 19
7. YOUR STUDY TEAM 21 Foreword This report was commissioned by Middlesbrough Council with the aim of reviewing the economic vitality of the town centre with a view to the production of a set of recommended actions (short, medium and long-term) that the local authority and other key stakeholders can embrace in order for Middlesbrough to meet their aspirations.
Middlesbrough is a town that aspires to greater things. It places need to be focused on the growing ‘want’ (rather has a strong and growing University and an industrial past than ‘need’) economy, providing potential consumers with to rival anywhere providing the bedrock of a strong ‘place’. a place that has a clear sense of purpose and a defined What is clear is that the people of Middlesbrough provide Unique Selling Point (USP) that cannot be replicated online a warm and welcoming personality to the area and this or elsewhere. positivity is an asset that Middlesbrough can build upon. Middlesbrough is disproportionately over-exposed to This report is published (December 2018) at a time of this changing consumer behaviour due to a number of unprecedented uncertainty for town and city centres factors. The town centre depends too much upon retail across the UK. Places, much like brands, will need to with four large shopping centres and an overall offer change in order to adapt to the needs of the modern that is dominated by 47% of buildings being classified consumer. With the rapid increase in competition to the as ‘retail’ with a ‘leisure’ mix of only 11%. In addition to traditional town centre offer, exacerbated by the UK’s this, too few individuals within a 20-minute drive-time high take-up of on-line purchasing and disproportionate have high disposable incomes, there are too few young operating costs including business rates, consumers have affluent professionals living within the study area, and greater choice and increasingly do not need to use town too many high earning individuals working within the centres in the way in which they once did. Consequently study area live and spend their incomes elsewhere.
3 Part of Savills This report has combined both Qualitative and Quantitative research methodology to establish the following recommendations; the rationale for these will be detailed throughout the report.
The recommendations of this report aim to build upon the Middlesbrough of today and to improve prospects through delivery of an action plan aimed at increasing ‘want’ and relying less upon ‘need’. Places that historically survived because people needed them are the ones finding that competing factors such as home/flexible working and study, and internet shopping, are affecting them the most. There is, though, an increasing role for places that people ‘want’ to invest their time and money in, as the experience they get when are in that place cannot be replicated elsewhere. Our recommendations include:
1 Creating a shared vision for the place 2 Increasing business engagement 3 Developing a strong place brand 4 Agreeing upon USPs, and places of special interest (e.g. Linthorpe Road) 5 Developing a marketing and communications plan 6 Reducing crime and anti-social behaviour 7 Encouraging usage of public transport 8 Developing a strategy for reducing the number of (or better concealing) vacant shop fronts, considering residential conversions 9 Developing a signage strategy 10 Alternative uses for retail space in addition to commitment to increase city centre living 11 Targeting a younger audience 12 Better penetrating the secondary catchment 13 Using pop-ups and creating more flexible uses for space 14 Re-evaluating the leisure or ‘experiential’ offer 15 Establishing a unique offer or proposition for the four shopping centres, being less reliant upon retail 16 Retaining more spend in the town centre from money that is earned by employees, thereby preventing leakage 17 Identifying how Middlesbrough should perform like a city in all but name 18 Tapping into future potential with the University 19 Improving the potential of the visitor market, including developing a plan for use of public spaces, including commercialisation opportunities 20 To ensure the maximum impact of the joint recommendations, the local authority must double its efforts to resist out of town retail applications and replace its ‘town centre first’ policy with a ‘town centre only' approach
Based upon the research to date, it appears that these recommendations are those most likely to bring about the longer-term change desired for Middlesbrough, to grow its reputation and to cement its place firmly as a regional destination that people visit because they want to, not simply because they need to.
4 Part of Savills 2. Background 3. Research methodology
CMS, part of Savills, were commissioned in July 2018 This report has utilised a wide-ranging research to undertake an economic health assessment of methodology to gather a robust understanding of the Middlesbrough Town Centre (Map appendix 1). The purpose quantitative and qualitative factors which impact the of this assessment was to build on and update the work economic health of the town. These factors range of both the Middlesbrough Retail Study (2016) and the from crime and health data through to the individual Middlesbrough Investment Prospectus (2017) whilst also perceptions of key stakeholders. This data has then adding additional insight into the social needs from the been compared to a basket of other locations to town centres if the studies and their recommendations provide context for how Middlesbrough town centre are to be successful. compares with similar locations, as well as some of its closest competitors. Data collected and methodology The investment prospectus has the stated goal of: utilised has included:
“This prospectus sets out our ambitions QUANTITATIVE: to transform Middlesbrough and its Land use, including vacancies (by area/sector) economy in the medium to long-term in ●• ●• ●Residential and employee numbers line with my 2025 Vision.” ●• ● Vacancy rates (lease expiries, imminent closures etc) Whilst the retail strategy has the aim of: ●• ●Sales data (sample 100) ● Transport data 1.04 - a key purpose of this Study is to provide ●• an assessment of retail needs and capacity in the ●• ●Crime and anti-social behaviour Middlesbrough Local Plan period to 2031, through ●• ●Customer flows (number, percentage, weighting) the identification of existing shopping patterns and ●• Business and consumer questionnaires (500) a review of the current performance of the defined ● Customer profiling (particularly of greater catchment area) centres in the administrative area. •● ●• ●Planned changes (public realm etc.) 1.05 - as such, the Study provides recommendations Non-user telephone research (500) in respect to the Council’s future strategy for the ●• Middlesbrough town centre, the two District Centres, 11 medium-scale Local Centres, 10 small-scale QUALITATIVE: Local Centres and 6 Neighbourhood Centres, to help safeguard their future vitality and viability, and it will ●• ●Flâneurs and street walkers assist in bringing forward the redevelopment of key ●Assessment of communications and engagement town centre sites. ●• ●• Assessment of first impressions Both the retail strategy and the investment prospectus ●Key stakeholder interviews/workshops set out strong recommendations and provide a good ●• foundation for future growth. The recommendations of this This data is then compared throughout (where available) economic assessment build upon these previous studies. to a basket of comparable locations including: In the period since these two reports were released, ●Ipswich the pressure on town and city centres have significantly ●• increased, with significant market volatility. Major brands ●• ●Newcastle have become victims of changing consumer habits, ●• ●York with a number of such brands based in Middlesbrough. ●• ●Walsall Most significantly amongst these is House of Fraser ●Bath which, since its most recent acquisition by the Mike ●• Ashley group and Sports Direct, leaves a core corner ●• ●Sunderland of the high-street in the ownership and acquisitions of ●• ●Durham one retailer (note, Flannels, USC and Sports Direct are ●• ●Hull located here) highlighting how vulnerable Middlesbrough ●Lincoln - like many such centres - is to increased vacancies. ●• ●• ●Huddersfield The subsequent sections detail the findings of the research and highlight why the recommendations have been outlined for Middlesbrough.
5 Part of Savills 4. Quantitative findings ● LAND USE, INCLUDING VACANCIES ● RESIDENTIAL AND EMPLOYEE NUMBERS
The latest Experian data set for the town informs this Middlesbrough has a local resident population of section. This data included unit vacancy information 140,600 but serves as a district centre for the Tees from March 2018. This was then adjusted by on-site Valley City Region, which has a population of 664,000, researchers walking the study area and updating the core rising to circa 2.7 million, within 60 minutes’ drive time. information, noting any changes of occupancy. Notes These catchment numbers are a substantial asset and were also made of any units that had changed use. opportunity. However, they also present a challenge in how to encourage a higher proportion of the catchment According to GOAD maps the vacancy rate in the to embrace and use the town more regularly and to Middlesbrough town centre target area is 15.38% consider it as a place in which they want to spend their (January 2018). This is above the national average time for leisure, work, shopping and so on. shown in the HDH vitality rankings for large towns in the North East with the average being 8.3% (HDH Middlesbrough is approximately in-line with the report, 2017). national average for jobs in the lower skilled market including the construction, retail and service industries After the site visit to Middlesbrough town centre and but also significantly underperforms in the professional assessing vacant units, the actual vacancy rate was services sector, which correlates with a shortage of found to be 17.85% (August 2018) with 123 units out of individuals within a 20 minute drive time and with 689 vacant upon inspection (all use classes). GOAD higher disposable income. maps were last surveyed in January 2018. This indicates that, since January 2018, vacant units have increased, It has a significantly higher proportion of those net, from 106 to 123 units (circa 2.5%). The national town employed in the social care sector. This may be linked centre vacancy rate was 9.3% in April 2017 showing to the strong performance of the Health and Social Middlesbrough is almost double the national average. care course at the University of Teesside.
Whilst the vacancy rate is higher than average, it is Opportunities to increase jobs in sectors where the the over-supply of retail units and reliance upon retail University of Teesside excels need to be identified. (46% of the mix in Middlesbrough vs the UK average 11 subjects saw an improved ranking position of 40% 1) that creates further structural issues. With compared to 2018, with a number seeing significant just 11% of the premises classified as leisure (bar, club, improvements. Teesside ranked 5th (of 81 institutions) café, cinema etc) the town is too reliant upon retail. for ‘Music’. In addition, ‘Art’, ‘Biosciences’, ‘Engineering: Increasingly the modern consumer uses a town centre Mechanical’, ‘English & Creative Writing’, ‘Health for social, service and experiential activities and an Professions’ and ‘History’ each featured in the top third increase in alternative uses must be encouraged. of institutions in their subject table.
Adding to the mix of problems surrounding the vacancy picture in Middlesbrough, is the significant number of brands located in the town, including House of Fraser, that are seeking to use Company Voluntary Arrangements (CVA’s) to reduce their rent obligations. This causes instability for both businesses and landlords.
1 Source: https://www.centreforcities.org/press/city-centres-must-break-reliance-retail-thrive-future/
6 Part of Savills ●SALES DATA
In order to try and establish the spending behaviours of included a proportionate split of ages and genders although those visiting Middlesbrough town centre, researchers it should be noted that as the research was conducted worked at varying times of the day and varying locations for outside of term time, therefore the data might not be a two-week period. The sample study (250 interviewees) entirely representative of the student population.
Users were asked how much they spent on grocery shopping, non-grocery shopping and on entertainment with the key findings being:
NON-FOOD SHOPPING
spent less spent in spent nothing than £10 excess of £75 on non-food on non-food on non-food 32% items 12.6% 12.6% Items items
GROCERY SHOPPING
spent less spent nothing than £10 on grocery on grocery 73% shopping 12.2% shopping
ENTERTAINMENT
spent spent less spent in excess nothing on than £10 on of £40 on 72% entertainment 13.8% entertainment 2.8% entertainment
The sales data leads to the conclusion that the low spend AGAINST A NATIONAL PICTURE WHERE: on entertainment is indicative of the small proportion of the town centre mix occupied by leisure businesses and the More than 50% of our spending goes on four main lack of a depth of offer. In addition to this there is evidence categories: Food, housing & fuel, transport and recreation. to suggest that a significant proportion of those surveyed In each of them we spent more than the previous year. spent very little in the town and were in town without their primary focus being the purchasing of goods from stores. • Transport is the top spend at £79.70. • We hit a total of £73.50 on holidays, tickets, Those spending a more significant amount (in excess of subscriptions, pets and other recreational purchases £75) were spending this on non-food based items. This Housing (though not mortgage payments or Council further supports the findings that Middlesbrough has a • Tax), fuel and power are third biggest costs, coming in substantial retail presence, one that is likely to leave it at £73.50 a week. over-exposed to current store closure trends. • Meat and fish make up a quarter of our £58.00 spend on food.
7 Part of Savills TRANSPORT DATA
Car Parking
Middlesbrough has a significant amount of parking spaces locations with a poorer overall offer may need to incentivise within the town, primarily due to the centre having four visits by lower parking costs. The recommendation in different shopping centres. Whilst the parking is of varying Middlesbrough, though, is to focus on improving the offer2. quality, it is cost comparable to its nearest neighbours and 1 cheaper than similar locations . Whilst the business survey Wherever possible, town and city centres are providing data suggested that the cost of parking was a factor in the 24/7 albeit parking, innovative payment regimes focused underperformance of their business and the town, this does on pay-on-exit and quality of provision with an emphasis not appear to be supported by the data, though payment on feelings of security. for parking is viewed by visitors as a reason for an expected return on their investment of time/spend etc. Therefore, National Car Park Data: benchmark
PUBLIC TRANSPORT
Bus
Using data collated by the Department of Transport reliable and technologically advanced public transport to Statistics which is collected by operators the yearly access town centres. There is an opportunity to upgrade passenger journeys per head for Middlesbrough fell year- buses (e.g. to offer on-board Wi-Fi and charging points on-year between 2010/11 and 2016/17.3 This is exceeding etc) and to then promote this as a favourable means of the national average. Middlesbrough’s user numbers transport. Investment, marketing and communications have declined by circa 25%, whereas the national average will be needed to reverse the historic trend, in the first was a fall of 8.5%. These statistics will affect the trading instance to move towards the national average. Over time performance of the town. The modern consumer is there is the potential to exceed national averages and this increasingly environmentally aware and wants to use fast, could be a key point of difference.
Train Travel
Usage data for Middlesbrough station shows that there ware There is a slight increase of 1.9% from 2015/16 to 2016/17. 1.35 million passengers travelling through the station (entries This increase correlates with the upturn in attendance at and exits) in 2016/17 (Latest statistical releases | Office of Rail Middlesbrough football matches, being the Club’s first and Road, 2018). Breaking this down further, 187,088 of the season in the Premier League. During this season they had 1.35 million were travelling using a season ticket, 681,456 were an extra 5,000 people per home game (average) and a high travelling with reduced price tickets and the rest - 487,738 - proportion of this would be travelling spectators. were travelling with full price tickets. When compared to similar locations, Middlesbrough is Using previous data from 2010/11 up until latest statistic lagging behind these other locations with the exception release in 2016/17 - it can be seen (Figure 1.2) that the train of Sunderland4. station has seen a decline up to 2015-16 of around 6.7%.
Figure 1.2 Middlesbrough train usage since 2010-11 % change of train usage since 2010/11 to 2016/17
30% 1,426,350 1,423,134 20% 1,364,250 1,370,172 1,351,494 1,356,282 1,331,452 10%
0% MIDDLESBROUGH SUNDERLAND -10% HULL -20% IPSWICH
-30% NEWCASTLE -40%
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 CENTRAL LINCOLN
1 Car Parking Costs Data sheet (Appx 2) 2 En.parkopedia.co.uk. (2018). Find Parking, Car Parks, Street Parking, Private Garages - Book Parking. [Online] Available at: https://en.parkopedia.co.uk [Accessed 30 Jul. 2018]. 3 GOV.UK. (2018). Local bus passenger journeys (BUS01). [online] Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/bus01-local-bus-passenger-journeys#table-bus0101 [Accessed 30 Jul. 2018]. 4 Assets.publishing.service.gov.uk. (2018). [online] Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/ attachment_data/file/320806/northern-transpennine-consultation.pdf [Accessed 30 Jul. 2018]. Assets.publishing.service.gov.uk. (2018). [online] Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/ attachment_data/file/320806/northern-transpennine-consultation.pdf [Accessed 30 Jul. 2018].
8 Part of Savills Crime and anti-social behaviour
Crime data indicates that Middlesbrough has one of the rates across similar areas including Nottingham, highest numbers of reported crimes compared to other Sunderland, Hull, Stoke and Birmingham. locations. There is a spike in ASB, shoplifting and violence. Shoplifting accounts for 12% of all reported crime in In the year ending December 2017 crime rates in the study area, which is high. Middlesbrough were higher than the average crime
TS1
1
SUNDERLAND SU1MIDDLESBROUGHBOLTON BL1 SWANSEA SA HULL HU1 LINCOLN LN1 HUDDERSFIELD HDIPSWICH1 IP1 crime crime crime crime crime crime crime crime all all all all all all all all No. Crimes No. % Of No. Crimes No. % Of No. Crimes No. % Of No. Crimes No. % Of No. Crimes No. % Of No. Crimes No. % Of No. Crimes No. % Of No. Crimes No. % Of
Anti-social behaviour 1,489 27% 4,541 40% 2,369 20% 2,878 26% 558 17% 1,164 35% 1,167 16% 1,430 18%
Bicycle theft 81 1% 188 2% 89 1% 152 1% 176 5% 96 3% 58 1% 253 3%
Burglary 144 3% 567 5% 1,097 9% 491 5% 150 5% 382 11% 358 5% 365 5%
Criminal damage and arson 324 6% 716 6% 1,071 9% 1,002 9% 203 6% 285 9% 553 7% 734 9%
Drugs 108 2% 282 2% 65 1% 437 4% 69 2% 140 4% 273 4% 184 2%
Other crime 66 1% 54 0% 185 2% 152 1% 28 1% 39 1% 113 2% 115 1%
Other theft 405 7% 745 7% 902 8% 802 7% 244 8% 260 8% 659 9% 512 7%
Possession of weapons 25 0% 51 0% 66 1% 67 1% 25 1% 11 0% 91 1% 54 1%
Public order 672 12% 429 4% 1,365 12% 783 7% 225 7% 100 3% 664 9% 587 8%
Robbery 26 0% 93 1% 138 1% 56 1% 29 1% 8 0% 95 1% 92 1%
Shoplifting 801 15% 1,358 12% 544 5% 989 9% 573 18% 114 3% 963 13% 1,086 14%
Theft from the person 117 2% 195 2% 180 2% 159 1% 83 3% 20 1% 254 3% 93 1%
Vehicle crime 125 2% 260 2% 745 6% 553 5% 73 2% 263 8% 323 4% 391 5%
Violence and sexual offences 1,121 20% 1,902 17% 2,972 25% 2,388 22% 800 25% 458 14% 1,840 25% 1,919 25%
Total 5,504 11,381 11,788 10,909 3236 3,340 7,411 7,815
9 Part of Savills Customer profiling (particularly of greater catchment area)
The following summaries are from Experian and entitled ‘Understanding Demographics’. The data is from 2016 and is based upon a 20-minute artl ool off-peak drive time, which is highlighted on the map below by the red boundary.