COVID19 Situation Report Data & Analytics Report Date: Thursday 12th November 2020
Mustafa Kamara, Senior Public Health Programme Officer Ingrid Slade, Head of Public Health [email protected]
1 Contents
▪ Total COVID19 detected cases (local)
▪ Weekly COVID19 rates – newly detected cases
▪ Cumulative COVID19 Rates – from the beginning of the outbreak
▪ COVID19 cases within local neighbourhoods
▪ Age-standardised death rates – local comparisons
▪ Weekly death rates – all causes
▪ Local COVID19 cumulative deaths reported by NHS Trust
▪ National COVID19 figures
▪ National & regional COVID19 trends
▪ Global comparison – total COVID19 deaths
▪ Data flows and data sources
2 Total COVID19 detected cases [DHSC Data]
• As of Wednesday 11th November 2020, 1635 Wokingham • As of Thursday 05th November 2020, England is under a new four-week lockdown. residents have tested positive for COVID19 (lab- confirmed cases) since the beginning of the outbreak. • The government has published new lockdown restrictions to control the spread of the virus. For information on what these restrictions mean for working from home, ➢ 10,467 COVID19 cases have been detected across business closures and the financial support available: Click Here Berkshire in total. ➢ The Borough of Slough has reported the highest • New lockdown measures will apply nationally up to Wednesday 2nd December 2020. number of cases in Berkshire: 2,490. • You can help to protect your friends and family by downloading the • It is expected that the true number of positive COVID19 NHS COVID-19 App to keep updated on the latest guidance from the cases in Wokingham is higher than the lab confirmed cases government. detected by PHE, with many asymptomatic residents going un-diagnosed.
1635 cases 2009 cases among residents of among residents of Wokingham Reading
1311 cases 1137 cases among residents of among residents of West Berkshire Bracknell Forest
1885 cases 2490 cases among residents of among residents of Windsor & Maidenhead Slough Map: Outline of 6 Upper Tier Local Authorities in Berkshire
3 Weekly COVID19 rates – newly detected cases [PHE Data]
• The line graph below shows how weekly rates of newly detected COVID19 cases have changed since the 1st of September 2020.
• The weekly rate of new COVID19 cases in Wokingham is increasing at a similar rate to the regional average. This weekly incidence rate for Wokingham is lower than the national average.
• The most-recent weekly rate of COVID19 cases in Wokingham (30 Oct - 05 Nov) is 109.3 new cases per 100,000 residents. ➢ The equivalent weekly rate for the Region (average across South East of England): 133.3 new cases per 100,000 ➢ The equivalent weekly rate for the Nation (average across England): 245.2 new cases per 100,000
Weekly rate of COVID19 cases detected in Wokingham, South East and England Rates expressed per 100,000 residents
300
250
200
150
per 100,000 residents 100,000 per 100 Weekly COVID Case rate rate Case COVID Weekly
50
0
Wokingham (shading shows 95% CIs) South East England
Source: Public Health England, ONS Mid-year population estimates 4 Local cumulative rates [PHE Data]
• Since the beginning of the outbreak, the total • Lowest incidence: Cornwall and Isles of Scilly – 507 COVID19 cases detected in Wokingham stands per 100,000 at 955 cases per 100,000 people. This • Highest incidence: Blackburn with Darwen – 5,384 cumulative rate is lower than the national average. per 100,000 • National incidence: England – 1,907 per 100,000 • The chart below shows how newly-detected COVID19 cases have reached similar levels to the COVID19 incidence rates: Wokingham compared to neighbouring boroughs first wave of the outbreak - back in April 2020. N.B. rates below are not age-standardised
2500 New lab-confirmed cases of COVID19 detected in Wokingham each day Chart below includes Pillar 1 & 2 test results 2000 45
40 1500
35
30 1000
25 500
20 Total LabConfirmed Cases Total 15 0 10 personsper100,000 rate aas Expressed Slough Windsor and Reading Wokingham Bracknell West England Maidenhead Forest Berkshire 5
0 Source: Public Health England, ONS Mid-year population estimates
5 COVID19 cases within local neighbourhoods [PHE Data]
• Public Health England publish data on total detected COVID19 cases within • The map below shows the distribution of total COVID19 cases detected among local neighbourhoods known as Middle Super Output Areas (MSOAs). residents within each Wokingham MSOA.
• MSOAs are geographic clusters of 2,000 to 6,000 households. The MSOA • Since the beginning of the outbreak the majority of cases have been reported within geographical boundaries are defined by the Office for National Statistics. Some the following wards: Winnersh, Hawkedon, Evendons, Wescott, Emmbrook of the MSOA boundaries align with ward boundaries but not all of them do. • To view an interactive map of 7-day rolling rates across Wokingham: Click Here • The table below shows numbers of lab confirmed positive cases of Coronavirus (COVID-19) reported over the last five weeks up to 6th November for all MSOAs in Wokingham. Please note – This table only shows where there are 3 or more Total Positive COVID19 cases detected by neighbourhood MSOA 1st January to 6th November 2020 cases, all smaller numbers are suppressed (represented by ".."). This is done to protect the identity of individual COVID19 cases (patient confidentiality).
Total Positive COVID19 cases by neighbourhood MSOA Time period: Most-recent five weeks
House of Commons Library MSOA Name wk_41 wk_42 wk_43 wk_44 wk_45
Twyford East & Wargrave 5 5 6 4 3 Twyford West & Charvil 9 4 8 11 7 Sonning & Woodley North 4 4 8 11 5 Woodley East 5 7 4 14 6 Woodley South .. 3 4 4 9 Earley 7 10 5 12 10 Southlake .. 3 6 8 4 Lower Earley North 4 12 26 11 13 Winnersh 4 5 10 8 8 Wokingham North & Hurst 6 7 4 3 6 Lower Earley South .. 6 8 5 12 Shinfield 6 13 7 10 46 Wokingham Town 8 10 12 14 13 Wokingham East 8 .. 10 8 8 Barkham & Woose Hill 5 6 9 4 10 Wokingham West & South 3 3 7 7 7 Spencers Wood & Swallowfield 7 8 9 4 7 Arborfield & Garrison 3 6 10 .. 8 Finchampstead 9 14 5 9 10 Crowthorne North 8 5 13 .. 6
Source: Public Health England 6 Age-standardised death rates – local comparison [ONS Data]
Latest data available for this analysis: Deaths occurring between 1 March and 31 July 2020 Next update for this analysis: Yet to be announced by ONS • Lowest COVID19 Death Rate in the country : North Lincolnshire - 20 per 100,000 • Comparing rates between multiple geographical areas can be made more-reliable when taking into account the differences in age • Highest COVID19 Death Rate in the country : structures of the populations that live in them. Brent - 218 per 100,000 • This is particularly true if the characteristic being compared varies by age; which is the case for deaths caused by COVID19 as older groups • National COVID19 Death Rate : are more at risk of dying. England - 91 per 100,000
• Age standardised death rates are used to make better comparisons, because they account for the differences in the age structure of the Age standardised Death Rates: populations being compared. Wokingham compared to neighbouring boroughs All Deaths registered between: 1st March & 31st July 2020
• For this particular analysis, all populations were mathematically adjusted 600
to have the same age structure as a reference population, known as the 536 525 ‘standard population’. In this way, all groups were given the same age 500 distribution so that a more representative picture of COVID19 deaths 451 across neighbouring boroughs is provided. 393 400 381 378 373
300 Results • All things being equal, Wokingham reported a similar rate (92 per 200 100,000 persons) of COVID19 related deaths in comparison to West 146 132 Berks, Windsor & Maidenhead and Bracknell (between 1st March and 92 86 91 Death Rate (per 100,000)(perDeathRate 80 31st July). 100 76
• Reading saw the highest rate of COVID19 related deaths in Berkshire 0 Reading Slough Wokingham West Windsor and Bracknell England (between 1st March and 31st July). Berkshire Maidenhead Forest
• The age-standardised death rate for Wokingham is also similar to the Death Rate (All Causes) Death Rate (Covid related) national average.
Source: ONS, 2020 7 Weekly death rates (all-cause mortality) in all settings [ONS Data]
Latest data available for this analysis: Deaths occurring up to 30 October 2020
• The chart below shows all deaths among Wokingham residents caused by COVID19 and/or other causes (all-cause mortality) across all settings
• Looking at all-cause mortality can help us to measure the impact of COVID19: ➢ By comparing current (all-cause) death rates against expected rates (average weekly deaths reported across previous 5 years) we can estimate excess deaths caused by COVID.
• As of 30 October, weekly deaths in Wokingham appear to be similar to the expected death rate. This is also the case for neighbouring boroughs in Berkshire.
Mortality in Wokingham per 100,000 population (2020 compared to 2015-19 average) 60 50 40 30 20
10 Rate per 100,000 pop 100,000 per Rate
0
10-Jul 03-Jul 17-Jul 24-Jul 31-Jul
12-Jun 05-Jun 19-Jun 26-Jun
09-Oct 02-Oct 16-Oct 23-Oct 30-Oct
10-Apr 03-Apr 17-Apr 24-Apr
11-Sep 04-Sep 18-Sep 25-Sep
07-Aug 14-Aug 21-Aug 28-Aug
13-Mar 06-Mar 20-Mar 27-Mar
01-May 08-May 15-May 22-May 29-May
Weekly Death Rate for 2020 (All Causes) Av. weekly deaths in 2015-19 (all causes)
8 Local COVID19 deaths reported by NHS Trust [NHSE Data]
• Daily COVID19 deaths are also published by • Highest mortality rate: London North West University NHS trusts; where each trust has a different Healthcare NHS Trust - 581 deaths per 1,000 beds. number of hospital beds. • Lowest mortality rate: Northern Devon Healthcare NHS Trust – 59 deaths per 1,000 beds. • The Royal Berkshire NHS Foundation Trust (which serves all residents across Berkshire Estimated COVID19 Death Rates: Royal Berkshire NHS Foundation Trust and neighbour Trust (Frimley) including those in Wokingham) have reported compared to the worst-affected NHS Trusts in the Country 237 deaths related to COVID19 as of 4th Frimley Health NHS Foundation Trust November 2020.
Royal Berkshire NHS Foundaton Trust • The Royal Berkshire NHS Foundation Trust (RBHFT) and neighbouring trust (Frimley) both Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust have lower rates of COVID19 deaths University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust compared to the worst-affected Trusts in
England. London North West University Healthcare NHS Trust
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Source: NHSE, 11.11.2020 Total number of deaths per 1,000 beds
Please note – Hospital beds are not a true population baseline but this calculation gives an indication of what Berkshire mortality rates might look like rather than actual.
9 National COVID19 figures [DHSC Data]
As of 11.11.2020, 1,256,725 people in the UK have tested positive for COVID19 since the beginning of the outbreak. Of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 61,648 have sadly died*
Total lab-confirmed cases in UK UK Cumulative Total (Cumulative) 1,256,725 lab-confirmed cases 61,648 deaths
UK Daily Total (11.11.2020) 22,950 lab-confirmed cases 595 deaths
Total COVID19 deaths in UK (Cumulative deaths within 28 days of positive test)
England Scotland Wales N. Ireland (Cumulative) (Cumulative) (Cumulative) (Cumulative) 1,073,300 76,448 62,284 44,693 53,102 4,649 2,874 1,023
*COVID-associated deaths have been defined as: Any death where COVID-19 was included on the death certificate 10 National & regional COVID19 trends [DHSC Data]
• More than 50% of all COVID19-associated • The highest number of deaths in hospitals are deaths to date occurred among people aged 80 in the North West, London and the Midlands. and above. Most cases are concentrated in urban areas.
Proportion of all COVID19 deaths by age group – Figures for England only. COVID19 Death Rate by England Region.
• COVID19 death rate appears to be higher Ethnic minorities are dying of Covid-19 in disproportionately high numbers. among ethnic minority backgrounds: Figures for England only. ➢ Among all COVID19 hospital deaths in England, 17% were Black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) even though these groups make up only 15% of the general population in England. Source: Public Health England, NHS England, ONS Ethnicity Estimates (2016)
11 Global comparison – total COVID19 deaths [Our World in Data]
• In the UK, the rate of COVID19 cumulative deaths is gradually increasing. Cumulative COVID19 deaths in the UK are the highest in Europe.
Cumulative COVID19 Deaths -Since beginning of outbreak
Source: Our World in Data - Health Statistics Repository ONS, NRS, NISRA, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University. The figures on deaths relate in almost all cases to patients who have died in hospital and who have tested positive for COVID19. Slight differences in reporting in devolved administrations may mean that they include a small number of deaths outside hospital. ONS, NRS and NISRA reporting of UK deaths for all settings is based on information from death certificates, and therefore lags daily hospital data. International reporting procedures and lags are unclear, so may not be comparing like-for-like.
12 Data flows and data sources
• The Public Health Team in Wokingham Borough Council accesses COVID19 data from numerous resources. • The flow chart below gives a brief summary of the different types of data and intelligence that is made available to Local Authorities across the country.
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