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Asia Pacific to add 78 million pay TV subs

The Asia Pacific pay TV sector is bucking the downward trends in much of the rest of the world. Subscribers will grow by 78 million and revenues by $2.73 billion between 2017 and 2023, according to the Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts report.

Asia Pacific pay TV subscribers by country (000) 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2010 2017 2023 Others 28,621 43,455 51,789 Vietnam 4,560 10,131 11,141 1,053 6,950 11,352 Pakistan 8,550 11,526 15,670 S Korea 15,704 18,605 18,272 Japan 24,448 24,246 23,118 India 116,080 151,589 179,951 China 194,500 342,180 375,085

Source: Digital TV Research Ltd Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “China and India together will account for 81% of the region’s 686 million pay TV subscribers by 2023. China will add 33 million subscribers between 2017 and 2023 and India will increase its total by 28 million. However, six of the 22 countries covered in this report will lose subscribers between 2017 and 2023. Taiwan will be the biggest loser – with subscribers down by 10.3%.”

Digital cable will supply 37 million – half - of the pay TV subscriber additions between 2017 and 2023. However analog cable subscriptions will fall by 52 million – leaving cable down overall. IPTV will bring in an extra 67 million subs, with pay satellite TV up by 26 million.

Asia Pacific pay TV revenues will increase by $2.73 billion between 2017 and 2023. China, India and Japan will together account for two-thirds of the $37.89 billion pay TV revenues by 2023. Pay TV revenues will fall in six countries between 2017 and 2023 including Japan (down $623 million), South Korea (down $225 million) and Hong Kong (down $89 million). On the plus side, India will contribute $1.6 billion in additional revenues, with China bringing in $924 million more and Indonesia an extra $472 million.

Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts

Table of Contents

Published in April 2018, this 228-page PDF and excel report comes in five parts:

• Executive summary and regional forecasts, with handy comparison tables to reveal the best growth prospects; • Regional forecasts summary from 2010 to 2023 by platform, by household penetration, by pay TV subscribers and by pay TV revenues; • Country profiles for 23 territories; • Detailed country forecasts for 22 countries, including 75 pay TV operators and 98 platforms. • NEW FOR 2018: Prospects. Summary subscriber forecasts for 22 countries in a graphically appealing 46-page document.

For more information, please click here or contact [email protected]

If you do not want the full report, you can buy the Asia Pacific Pay TV Prospects report for half the price of the full report. Please contact [email protected] for more details, including the table of contents and sample pages.

Forecasts for the following 22 countries and 75 platforms:

Country Forecasts No of ops Platform forecasts Australia * 1 Bangladesh * 1 RealVU Cambodia * 3 CDN; One TV; SM Telemedia China * 4 China Radio & TV; China Telecom; BesTV; China Unicom Hong Kong * 2 i-cable; Now TV India * 11 ; Siti; In Digital; DEN; Dish TV; Tata ; Videocon; Airtel; ; Reliance; MTNL Indonesia * 10 Linknet; ; Indovision; Top TV; Okevision; Orange TV; Big TV; K Vision; Telkom; NexMedia Japan * 3 SkyPerfecTV; J:Com; NTT Laos * Malaysia * 2 ; TM Mongolia * 2 ; DDish Myanmar * 2 SkyNet; 4TV/MRTV (Forever) Nepal * 1 Dish Media New Zealand * 2 Sky; Pakistan * 1 PTCL Philippines * 2 /; Singapore * 2 StarHub; SingTel TV S Korea * 9 CJ Hellovision; T Broad; D’Live; CMB; Hyundai HCN; KT Olleh; Skylife; B TV; LG U+ Sri Lanka * 2 Dialog; Peo Taiwan * 4 Taiwan Broadband; TWM; CNS; CHT Thailand * 3 Truevisions; TOT; AIS Vietnam * 8 SCTV; VTVCab; HTV-CMS; VNPT; Viettel; FPT; K+; MobiTV

SAMPLE: Indonesia pay TV insight

• After years of sluggish growth, Indonesian multichannel TV is finally taking off. Digital TV penetration was 38% (15.64 million) in end-2017, with 100% expected beyond 2023. DTT will account for 31 million of the 2023 total, up from 6 million at end-2017.

Main assumptions behind the forecasts • Pay TV penetration will remain low. • Too many pay TV operators are chasing too few subscribers. • There are many satellite TV operators in Indonesia. Not all of them will survive, with several already folding. • The flurry of satellite TV activity now will be replaced by a flurry of IPTV activity, with Telkom gaining the most. • Substantial investment in broadband networks will result in more bundle offers. • Intense competition is forcing down ARPUs. • Freeviewsat began operations in January 2017. • Analog terrestrial switch-off is scheduled for 2018, but we do not expect it to happen until after 2023. • Above average GDP growth is forecast; lower than the last edition. • Population growth forecasts are also above the regional average. Source: Digital TV Research

• Pay TV penetration reached only 16.8% (6.95 million) of TV households by end-2017. This proportion will climb slowly to 23.8% (11.35 million) by 2023. The number of IPTV homes will rise from 2.90 million in 2017 to 6.34 million in 2023. The number of paying IPTV homes will overtake pay satellite subs in 2018.

• Pay TV revenues will surge from $719 million in 2017 to $1,191 million in 2023. IPTV will provide $585 million of the 2023 total; more than double the 2017 total.

• Despite its huge potential, Indonesian pay TV will remain underdeveloped during the forecast period. Pay TV penetration is low, partly due to the multitude of FTA terrestrial channels on offer and partly due to the low disposable income for most homes.

• Piracy remains a major problem, with 2-3 million homes receiving illegal signals from as many as 2,500 operators (charging as little as a tenth of the average fee from the legitimate operators).

• MNC Skyvision (also known as MSky and trading as Indovision, Okevision and Top TV) had 2.50 million satellite TV subs by end-2016; flat year-on-year. We forecast a total of 3.03 million subscribers by 2023.

MNC Skyvision subscriber growth (000) ARPU IDR Total Indovision Top TV Okevision 2010 143,845 804 631 173 0 2011 125,430 1,163 752 335 76 2012 123,203 1,720 933 583 204 2013 114,259 2,300 1,175 774 351 2014 101,247 2,529 1,289 838 402 2015 102,946 2,433 1,139 881 412 2016 92,060 2,496 1,222 898 376 Source: MNC Skyvision

• MNC Skyvision raised IDR2.15 billion ($160 million) via an IPO in July 2012, which involved the sale of 20% of its equity. Global controls 79.52% of Network (the holding company for its pay TV, digital and broadband assets) and also owns four major FTA broadcasters such as RCTI, MNC, iNewsTV and Global TV. Its satellite TV platforms provide 138 channels, including 36 exclusive ones.

• MNC Kabel Mediakom is a fledgling FTTH network, with 1 million homes passed by end-2016. MNC Play had 116,000 residential customers at end- 2016. Its IPTV platform supplies 162 channels, including 38 exclusive ones as well as those from beIN. MNC Play is not available as a standalone service.

• Transvision had about 879,000 satellite TV (mainly pre-paid) and cable TV subscribers at end-2014. We estimate 453,000 subscribers across all platforms by end-2017, rising to 556,000 by 2023. In June 2013, CT Corp, owned by billionaire Chairul Tanjung and through its Transmedia subsidiary, acquired an 80% stake in TelkomVision from Telkom.

• The Diamond pack costs IDR399,000/month ($29.98) for 111 channels, with the 75-channel Gold pack at IDR199,000 ($14.95) and 98-channel Platinum for IDR299,000/month ($22.47).

• In October 2011, Mega Media (controlled by the Sinar Mas Group) launched the Orange TV satellite platform, with up to 75 channels (IDR160,000- 238,000/month, $12.02-17.89). Orange also offer beIN channels. Orange offers both prepaid and postpaid subscriptions. The company targets middle to lower income subscribers. Orange launched an OTT mobile service in late 2013. We forecast 134,000 satellite TV subs by 2023.

• IMTV started its satellite TV operation, BigTV, in September 2013 – aiming to attract the growing middle class with 62-96 channels for INR130,000- 510,000/month ($9.77-38.33). IMTV, Indonesia Media Televisi, is a subsidiary of the Lippo Group, which also owns First Media. We expect 56,000 subscribers by 2023.

• There are 20 licensed satellite TV operators. Skynindo is among the smaller satellite platforms. Launched in December 2010, Satellite TV went bust in late 2015, followed by Viva Plus. Owned by Kompas Gramedia Group, K- Vision launched a prepaid platform in March 2014.

• Premium channels beIN Sports hold the European Champions League soccer rights from 2015/16 to 2017/18 as well as action from Europe’s top domestic leagues from England, France, Italy and . beIN Sports is carried by Orange, Nexvision, Indovision, K-Vision, Usee and Transvision.

• Philippines-based ABS and Sarana Media Vision launched a 60-channel FTA satellite TV platform called in February 2017. SMV holds a satellite TV license.

LinkNet operating data (000) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q17 Homes passed 933 1,194 1,433 1,673 1,826 1,944 TV subs 266 304 363 433 503 541 Broadband subs 290 333 392 457 521 561 RGUs 755 890 1,024 1,102 Cable TV ARPU IDR00 150 151 186 Source: LinkNet

• LinkNet, trading as HomeCable, passed 2 million premises by end-2017 and wants to pass 2.8 million homes by 2021. LinkNet is also constructing an ADSL and fiber network. About 95% of customers take both TV and broadband services. We forecast 878,000 TV subs by 2023. LinkNet launched an IPO in mid-2014 for a third of its equity. Lippo Group-owned First Media controls 34.8%, with CVC taking 34.4%.

• The government aims to increase broadband premises passed from 30% of households (20 million) by end-2015 to 40% (25 million) by 2018 and more than 50% (35 million) in 2025. Telkom will construct the national broadband network, called True Broadband, at a cost of $24 billion. Speeds range from 20Mbps to 100Mbps. The ITU estimated 4,897,860 million fixed broadband subscribers by end-2016.

• About 52.09% owned by the government, Telkom had 4.75 million fixed broadband subscribers (up to 100Mbps) by September 2017. The company had passed 16.4 million premises with fiber by end-2016. Telkom also had 190 million mobile subs by September 2017.

• Launched in late 2014, Telkom had 1.1 million triple-play subs (IndiHome) by end-2015; rising to 1.62 million by end-2016. This figure had risen to 2.34 million by September 2017 (including 581,000 dual-play subs. Dual-play (broadband and linear TV) was introduced in late 2016). Standalone TV services are not available. We expect 6.03 million TV subs by 2023.

• IndiHome provides 100 SD channels and 31 HD ones as part of its triple-play fiber packs. IndiHome also gives access to Catchplay, and . Its IPTV network (confusingly called Usee TV Cable) also incorporates on-demand services such as HBO.

• Part owned by Sinar Mas, broadband operator MyRepublic had 140,000 subscribers (up to 300Mbps) by mid-2017 from 500,000 homes passed. Its TV package provides 60 channels for IDR180,000/month.

• National analog terrestrial switch-off was scheduled for January 2018, but it was postponed for legal and technical reasons to March 2023. We do not believe that this will happen until after 2023. The Ministry of Communications and Information announced the adoption of the DVB-T2 standard in February 2012. The government has allocated IDR300 billion for 1 million settop boxes, which will be distributed to poorer households.

• Sister company of MNC Skyvision, is constructing a DTT network. Running the MNCTV, RCTI, iNewsTV and Global TV terrestrial FTA channels, MNC also operates 23 pay TV channels. Viva Group, owner of the tvOne and channels, also holds a DTT multiplex license (covering Java).

• Launched in November 2011, Nexmedia, a division of the Emtek Group which also runs FTA channels SCTV and IVM/, began as a pay DTT operator (DVB-T2) in the Greater area, with expansion soon after to east Java. Nexmedia (also known as Mediatama Anugrah Citra) had 124,000 subscribers by end-2014, up from 80,000 at end-2013 and 43,000 a year earlier. We forecast 191,000 subs by 2023.

• The basic NexFamily package costs IDR99,000/month ($7.44) for 26 channels. NexSports provides 20 channels for the same price. NexSports and NexFamily together cost IDR170,000/month ($12.78) for 32 channels. Nexmedia also carries beIN Sports.

• The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product will grow above the regional average for the next five years. GDP per capita was $3,859 in 2017. Indonesia’s population was 262 million in 2017.

• Joko Widodo was elected as president in July 2014 in a closely fought election. Widodo, known as Jokowi, is not part of the dynasty that has ruled Indonesia since independence. Appealing to ordinary Indonesians, he aims to deal with the widespread corruption.

Indonesia pay TV forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Total households (000) TV households (000) Digital cable subs (000) Analog cable subs (000) Pay IPTV subscribers (000) Pay digital Satellite TV subs (000) Digital Satellite TV hholds (000) Analog Satellite TV Hholds (000) Analog terrestrial households (000) Primary FTA DTT households (000) Primary Pay DTT households (000)

Digital homes (000) Analog homes (000) Pay TV subscribers (000) Total DTT households (000)

Digital cable subs/TV HH Analog cable subs/TV HH Pay IPTV subs/TV HH Pay Satellite TV/TV HH Digital free Satellite TV/TV HH Analog Satellite TV/TV HH Analog terrestrial/TVHH Primary FTA DTT/TV HH Primary pay DTT/TV HH

TVHH/Total HH Digital/TV HH Analog/TV HH Pay TV Subs/TV HH Total DTT/TV HH

Stand-alone digital cable subs (000) Dual-play digital cable subs (000) Triple-play digital cable subs (000)

Stand-alone pay IPTV subs (000) Dual-play pay IPTV subs (000) Triple-play pay IPTV subs (000)

Indonesia pay TV forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Revenues (US$ million) Stand-alone digital cable revs Dual-play digital cable TV revenues Triple-play digital cable TV revs Digital cable TV subs revenues Digital cable TV on-demand revs Digital cable TV revenues Analog cable TV subs revs Cable TV revenues

Stand-alone IPTV revenues Dual-play IPTV revenues Triple-play IPTV revenues IPTV subscription revenues IPTV on-demand revenues IPTV revenues

Satellite TV subscription revenues Satellite TV on-demand revenues Satellite TV revenues

DTT subscription revs DTT on-demand revenues DTT revenues

Subscription revenues On-demand revenues Total revenues

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$) Stand-alone digital cable subs Dual-play digital cable TV subs Triple-play digital cable TV subs Average digital cable (subs & VOD) Analog cable TV subs Stand-alone IPTV subs Dual-play IPTV subs Triple-play IPTV subs Average IPTV (subs and VOD) Pay Satellite TV (subs) Pay Satellite TV (subs and PPV) Pay DTT (subs) Pay DTT (subs and PPV) Average monthly ARPU

Indonesia pay TV forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Pay TV subscribers by operator (000) Linknet (digital cable) Transvision (digital cable) Transvision (satellite) Transvision (total) Indovision (satellite) Top TV (satellite) Okevision (satellite) MNC Skyvision (total) Orange TV (satellite) Big TV (satellite) K Vision (satellite) Telkom (IPTV) NexMedia (DTT) Others

Share of pay TV subs by operator % Linknet (digital cable) Transvision (digital cable) Transvision (satellite) Transvision (total) Indovision (satellite) Top TV (satellite) Okevision (satellite) MNC Skyvision (total) Orange TV (satellite) Big TV (satellite) K Vision (satellite) Telkom (IPTV) NexMedia (DTT) Others

Indonesia pay TV forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Subscription & VOD revenues (US$ million) Linknet (digital cable) Transvision (digital cable) Transvision (satellite) Transvision (total) Indovision (satellite) Top TV (satellite) Okevision (satellite) MNC Skyvision (total) Orange TV (satellite) Big TV (satellite) K Vision (satellite) Telkom (IPTV) NexMedia (DTT) Others

Share of pay TV revenues by operator % Linknet (digital cable) Transvision (digital cable) Transvision (satellite) Transvision (total) Indovision (satellite) Top TV (satellite) Okevision (satellite) MNC Skyvision (total) Orange TV (satellite) Big TV (satellite) K Vision (satellite) Telkom (IPTV) NexMedia (DTT) Others

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$) Linknet (digital cable) Transvision (digital cable) Transvision (satellite) Indovision (satellite) Top TV (satellite) Okevision (satellite) Orange TV (satellite) Big TV (satellite) K Vision (satellite) Telkom (IPTV) NexMedia (DTT)

Source: digital TV research

Indonesia pay TV subscriber prospects

Homes by platform (000) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2017 2018 2019 2023 A terres 25,733 21,902 18,350 1,765 Pay DTT 165 169 174 191 Free DTT 6,206 9,532 13,014 31,003 Free satellite 2,482 2,965 3,254 3,577 Pay Satellite 3,186 3,220 3,210 3,720 IPTV 2,896 3,813 4,555 6,344 A Cable 0 0 0 0 D cable 703 763 824 1,097

Subscribers by operator (000)

Others 273434 NexMedia 169191 Telkom 3,622 6,027 K Vision 3945 Big TV 4856 Orange TV 116134 Okevision 370428 Top TV 9661,116 Indovision 1,2881,488 Transvision 463556 Linknet 610878 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2023 2018

Indonesia pay TV revenue prospects

Revenues by platform ($m) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2017 2018 2019 2023 Pay DTT 19 19 20 21 Pay Satellite 377 382 382 425 IPTV 213 304 384 585 A Cable 0 0 0 0 D cable 111 119 127 160

Revenues by operator ($m)

Others 2948 NexMedia 1921 Telkom 289 555 K Vision 4 Big TV 56 Orange TV 1213 Okevision 4145 Top TV 106118 Indovision 164183 Transvision 6070 Linknet 95 128 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2023 2018

Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2018 Title Publication Price 1 Sub-Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1440/$1560 2 Middle East & North Africa Pay TV Forecasts February £1200/€1440/$1560 3 Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 4 Latin America Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 5 North America Pay TV Forecasts March £500/€600/$650 6 Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 7 Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 8 Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts May £1500/€1800/$1950 9 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950 10 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950 11 Pay TV Operator Prospects June £800/€960/$1040 12 Pay TV Revenue Prospects July £800/€960/$1040 13 Forecasts July £600/€720/$780 14 Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video £1000/€1200/$1300 Forecasts August 15 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video August £1000/€1200/$1300 Forecasts 16 Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300 17 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300 18 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £500/€600/$650 19 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300 20 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300 21 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1800/€2160/$2340 22 Global SVOD Forecasts November £1500/€1800/$1950 23 OTT TV & Video Prospects November £1000/€1200/$1300 24 SVOD Prospects December £900/€1080/$1170

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Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2017 Title Publication Price Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts May £1800/€2160/$2340 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts May £1800/€2160/$2340 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts May £1800/€2160/$2340 Netflix Forecasts June £750/€900/$975 Global Pay TV Subscriber Databook June £750/€900/$975 Global Pay TV Revenue Databook June £750/€900/$975 Global Pay TV Operator Databook June £750/€900/$975 Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £1000/€1200/$1300 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video £1000/€1200/$1300 Forecasts July Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts August £1000/€1200/$1300 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts August £1000/€1200/$1300 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £600/€720/$780 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1800/€2160/$2340 Global AVOD Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300 Global SVOD Forecasts October £1500/€1800/$1950 Online TV Piracy Forecasts November £1200/€1440/$1560 SVOD Digest November £500/€600/$650 OTT & Pay TV Forecasts December £1500/€1800/$1950

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