IPTV drives Asia’s pay TV growth The Asia Pacific pay TV sector is vibrant, with both subscribers (up by 68 million) and revenues (up by $2.35 billion) forecast to rise over the next five years. However, these forecasts are lower than the previous Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts report, mainly due to many cable subs in China converting to OTT. Asia Pacific: Split of TV households by platform (million) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2018 2019 2024 Analog Terrestrial 63 55 2 Pay DTT 2 2 3 FTA DTT 136 138 189 FTA Sat 89 91 98 Pay Sat 83 83 89 Pay IPTV 189 217 272 Digital cable 306 309 317 Analog cable 33 17 0 Source: Digital TV Research Ltd Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “IPTV is the biggest pay TV winner – adding 83 million subscribers between 2018 and 2024 to take its total to 272 million. Much of this growth will happen in China [up by 40 million] as cable subs convert to OTT or IPTV and in India [up by 28 million].” Reliance is poised to shake up India’s staid fixed broadband sector with its Jio GigaFiber operation as it has done in the mobile sector. Indonesia, the region’s third most populous country, will also enjoy substantial IPTV growth. Cable will suffer. Digital cable subscriptions will be flat overall. China will lose 25 million cable subs between 2018 and 2024, although India will add 13 million. Analog cable subscriptions will fall by 33 million. The pay satellite TV sector is mature, with only 6 million subscribers to be added between 2018 and 2024 to take the total to 89 million. Due to mainly to consolidation, India will lose nearly 3 million subscribers. China and India together will account for 80% of the region’s 681 million pay TV subscribers by 2024. About 68 million pay TV subs will be added between 2018 and 2024, with China and India together supplying two-thirds of the extra subs – so they will grow at a slower rate than the rest of the region. Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts Table of Contents Published in March 2019, this 226-page PDF, PowerPoint and excel report comes in three parts: • Outlook: Forecasts for 22 countries in a 61-page PowerPoint document full of charts, graphs and bullet points; • Excel workbook covering each year from 2010 to 2024 for 22 countries by household penetration, by pay TV subscribers, by pay TV revenues and by major operator. As well as summary tables by country and by platform; • Insight: Detailed country-by-country analysis in an 85-page PDF document. For more information, please click here or contact [email protected] Forecasts for the following 22 countries and 75 platforms: Country No of ops Platform forecasts Australia 1 Foxtel Bangladesh 1 RealVU Cambodia 3 CDN; One TV; Sky One China 4 China Radio & TV; China Telecom; BesTV; China Unicom Hong Kong 2 i-cable; Now TV India 12 Hathway; GTPL; Siti; In Digital; DEN; Dish TV; Tata Sky; Videocon; Airtel; Sun Direct; Independent; MTNL Indonesia 9 Linknet; Transvision; Indovision; Top TV; Okevision; Orange TV; Big TV; Telkom; NexMedia Japan 3 SkyPerfecTV; J:Com; NTT Laos Malaysia 2 Astro; TM Mongolia 2 Univision; DDish Myanmar 2 SkyNet; 4TV/MRTV (Forever) Nepal 1 Dish Media New Zealand 2 Sky; Vodafone Pakistan 1 PTCL Philippines 2 Sky Cable/Sky Direct; Cignal Singapore 2 StarHub; SingTel TV S Korea 9 CJ Hellovision; T Broad; D’Live; CMB; Hyundai HCN; KT Olleh; Skylife; B TV; LG U+ Sri Lanka 2 Dialog; Peo Taiwan 4 Taiwan Broadband; TWM; CNS; CHT Thailand 3 Truevisions; TOT; AIS Vietnam 8 SCTV; VTVCab; HTV-CMS; VNPT; Viettel; FPT; K+; MobiTV Indonesia pay TV insight • Indonesia’s pay TV sector has traditionally been fairly low-key and insular. Attempts by foreigners to break into the market have not been successful. However, reports in December 2018 claimed that France’s Vivendi was interested in taking stakes in MCN Vision Networks (50%) and Media Nusantata (10%). • However, the biggest shake-up is coming from Telkom’s Indihome. Telkom is adding IPTV subscribers rapidly to its Indihome triple-play and dual-play packages. Main assumptions behind the forecasts • Our TV household forecasts are higher than the last edition • Pay TV penetration will continue to be pushed up by Telkom. • The flurry of satellite TV activity now will be replaced by a flurry of IPTV activity, with Telkom gaining the most. • Substantial investment in broadband networks will result in more bundle offers. • There are many satellite TV operators in Indonesia. Not all of them will survive, with several already folding. Satellite TV growth will be limited. • Intense competition is forcing down ARPUs. • Analog terrestrial switch-off is scheduled for 2018, but we do not expect it to happen until after 2024. • GDP growth forecasts have been lowered by the IMF. Source: Digital TV Research • Pay TV penetration reached only 21.2% (9.01 million) of TV households by end-2018. This proportion will climb rapidly to 35.1% (17.50 million) by 2024. • The number of IPTV homes will rise from 5.10 million in 2018 to 13.11 million in 2024. The number of paying IPTV homes overtook pay satellite subs in 2017. However, the proportion of homes paying for satellite TV will slowly decline. There are too many satellite TV platforms, with several expected to fold. • Pay TV revenues will double from $884 million in 2018 to $1,670 million in 2024. IPTV will provide $1,107 million of the 2024 total; nearly triple 2018. • Piracy remains a major problem, with 2-3 million homes receiving illegal signals from as many as 2,500 operators (charging as little as a tenth of the average fee from the legitimate operators). • Launched in late 2014, Telkom had 4.71 million Indihome subs (52% triple-play and the rest dual-play) by September 2018; more than double from the previous year. Standalone TV services are not available. Indihome exceeded 5 million subs by end-2018 and wants 7.5 million by end-2019. We expect 12.72 million TV subs by 2024. • IndiHome provides 100 SD channels and 31 HD ones as part of its triple-play fiber packs. IndiHome also gives access to Catchplay, HOOQ and Iflix. Its IPTV network (confusingly called Usee TV Cable) also incorporates on-demand services such as HBO. • About 52.09% owned by the government, Telkom had 5.3 million fixed broadband subscribers (up to 100Mbps) by end-2017. The company had passed 18.6 million premises with fiber by end-2017. Telkom also had 168 million mobile subscribers at September 2018. MNC Vision subscriber growth (000) ARPU IDR Total Indovision Top TV Okevision 2010 143,845 804 631 173 0 2011 125,430 1,163 752 335 76 2012 123,203 1,720 933 583 204 2013 114,259 2,300 1,175 774 351 2014 101,247 2,529 1,289 838 402 2015 102,946 2,433 1,139 881 412 2016 92,060 2,496 1,222 898 376 Source: MNC • MNC Vision (trading as Indovision, Okevision and Top TV) had 2.50 million satellite TV subs by end-2017; flat year-on-year. We forecast a total of 2.60 million subscribers by 2024. • Global Mediacom controls 79.52% of MCN Vision and also owns four major FTA broadcasters such as RCTI, MNC, iNewsTV and Global TV. Its satellite TV platforms provide 137 channels, including 33 exclusive ones. • MNC Kabel Mediakom is a fledgling FTTH network, with 1.2 million homes passed by end-2017. MNC Play had 175,000 residential customers at end- 2017; up from 116,000 a year earlier. Its IPTV platform supplies 177 channels, including 38 exclusive ones as well as those from beIN. MNC Play is not available as a standalone service. SVOD platform MNC Now provides more than 80 linear channels and 5,000 hours of on-demand content. • Transvision had 879,000 satellite TV (mainly pre-paid) and cable TV subscribers at end-2014. We estimate 433,000 subscribers across all platforms by end-2018, rising to 483,000 by 2024. In June 2013, CT Corp, owned by billionaire Chairul Tanjung and through its Transmedia subsidiary, acquired an 80% stake in TelkomVision from Telkom. • In October 2011, Mega Media (controlled by the Sinar Mas Group) launched the Orange TV satellite platform. Orange also offers beIN channels. Orange provides both prepaid and postpaid subscriptions. The company targets middle to lower income subscribers. We forecast 115,000 satellite TV subs by 2024. Orange launched an OTT mobile service in late 2013. • IMTV started its satellite TV operation, BigTV, in September 2013 – aiming to attract the growing middle class with 64-93 channels for INR130,000- 510,000/month ($9.14-35.85). Indonesia Media Televisi is a subsidiary of the Lippo Group, which also owns First Media. We expect 48,000 subs by 2024. • There are 20 licensed satellite TV operators. Skynindo is among the smaller satellite platforms. Launched in December 2010, Aora Satellite TV went bust in late 2015, followed by Viva Plus. Owned by Kompas Gramedia Group, K- Vision launched a prepaid platform in March 2014. • Philippines-based ABS and Sarana Media Vision launched a 60-channel FTA satellite TV platform called FreeSat in February 2017. SMV holds a satellite TV license. LinkNet operating data (000) 2014 2015 2016 2017 3Q18 Homes passed 1,433 1,673 1,826 2,000 2,150 TV subs 363 433 503 551 Broadband subs 392 457 521 570 Source: LinkNet • LinkNet, trading as HomeCable, passed 2.15 million premises by September 2018 and wants to pass 2.8 million homes by 2021.