What’s Happening Out There Political Scene Fall 2015

Presentation to Pacific Northwest Waterways Association

By John Horvick, DHM Research

October 8, 2015 Horse Public’s Economy & Race Mood Labor

Changing Trade Communities Q&A

2 Horse Race

3 Republican Nomination Huffington Post

Trump 24%

Carson 14%

Fiorina/Rubio 10% Bush 9%

Cruz 6% Christie 4% Paul/Kasich/Huckabee 3%

June 2015 October 2015 Republican Nomination Markets (PredicIt, Betfair)

Prediction Market Prices

Marco Rubio 0.30 Jeb Bush 0.26 Donald Trump 0.11 Carly Fiorina 0.07 Ben Carson 0.07 Ted Cruz 0.05 Chris Christie 0.04 John Kasich 0.04 Mike Huckabee 0.02 Rand Paul 0.02 Bobby Jindal 0.01 Rick Santorum 0.01 Lindsey Graham 0.00 Scott Walker 0.00 George Pataki 0.00

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 Republican Nomination Markets (PredicIt, Btffair)

Prediction Market Prices

Marco Rubio 0.30 Jeb Bush 0.26 Donald Trump 0.11 Carly Fiorina 0.07 Ben Carson 0.07 Ted Cruz 0.05 Establishment: 64% Chris Christie 0.04 John Kasich 0.04 Outsider: 30% Mike Huckabee 0.02 Rand Paul 0.02 Bobby Jindal 0.01 Rick Santorum 0.01 Lindsey Graham 0.00 Scott Walker 0.00 George Pataki 0.00

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 Democratic Nomination Huffington Post

Clinton 43%

Sanders 25%

Biden 20%

Chafee O’Malley 1-2% Webb June 2015 October 2015

Democratic Nomination Markets (PredicIt, Betfair)

Prediction Market Prices

Hillary Clinton 0.63

Joe Biden 0.17

Bernie Sanders 0.15

Martin OMalley 0.01

Elizabeth Warren 0.01

Al Gore 0.01

Lincoln Chafee 0.01

Jim Webb 0.01

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 Job Performance Net +

Pope Francis 40% 31% 12% 7% 10% +52

Ron Wyden 22% 36% 18% 8% 17% +32

Kate Brown 24% 33% 20% 13% 11% +24

Patty Murray 28% 26% 13% 19% 14% +22

Jay Inslee 17% 31% 19% 17% 16% +12

Approve strongly Approve somewhat Oppose somewhat Oppose strongly Don't know Party Trust

16% Needs of those in poverty 46% 19% Housing 42% 22% Health care 43% 20% K-12 education 40% 19% Transporation 37% 24% Needs of those in the middle class 42% 23% Energy 41% 16% Earthquake preparedness 29% 31% Taxes 33% 32% Government spending 29% 33% Balancing the state budget 29% 35% Small business 30% 53% Large business 17%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Republicans Democrats Party Trust

16% Needs of those in poverty 46% 19% Housing 42% 22% Health care 43% 20% K-12 education 40% 19% Transporation 37% 24% Needs of those in the middle class 42% 23% Energy 41% 16% Earthquake preparedness 29% 31% Taxes 33% 32% Government spending 29% 33% Balancing the state budget 29% 35% Small business 30% 53% Large business 17%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Republicans Democrats Public’s Mood

13 All things considered, do you feel things in Oregon are headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

100%

80%

64% 58% 60% 52% 51% 49% 50%

40% 36% 34% 35% 31% 31% 20% 21%

0%

Right Direction Wrong Track Right Direction by State

Utah (January) 73%

Oregon (September) 58%

Nevada (May) 53%

Idaho (July) 44%

Washington (June) 43%

California (May) 40%

Colorado (May 2014) 35%

Arizona (August) 30%

United States (October) 26% Political Process Good for Everyone or Good for the Powerful?

The political process of electing representatives 12% 32% 44% and passing laws is messy, but in the end it works best for everyone.

The political process is horribly broken and is 25% 29% rigged to benefit the most 54% powerful

Much closer Somewhat closer MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES

K-12 public education Jobs & the economy Taxes and government spending Roads and transportation Crime and public safety Environmental protection Poverty and homelessness Income inequality and minimum wage Abortion, same sex marriage, presidential elections VOTER KNOWLEDGE

Cannot name the three 50% branches of government

Cannot name the source of 50%+ their drinking water supply

Cannot names the candidates 60%+ for governor or senator

18 Economy & Labor

19 Oregon Unemployment Rate 14%

12% 11.6%

10%

8%

6.1% 6%

4% US: 5.1% Washington: 5.3% Idaho: 4.2% 2%

0%

20 Concern about personal financial situation

71% 71% 66% 65% 62% 60% 52%

March 2011 September January 2012 April 2013 September December 2014 April 2015 2011 2014 21 Somewhat/very 22 Support for Minimum $15 Minimum Wage: Oregon & Washington

Washington 29% 16% 14% 37% 5%

Oregon 26% 13% 18% 39% 4%

23 Support -- strongly Support -- somewhat Oppose -- somewhat Oppose -- strongly Don't know Support for Minimum Wage Increases in Oregon and Washington

~30% do not support any increase in the minimum wage

~20% Support increasing minimum wage to $15+

$11 - $12 Median preferred minimum wage

24 Approve or Disapprove of Labor Unions (US) (Gallup)

60% 58%

54% 53% 52% 52% 52%

50% 48%

45% 40% 42% 42% 41% 39% 38% 36%

30%

20% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Approve Disapprove Approve or disapprove of labor unions

23% 29% Approval

Total: 58%

Dem: 86% NAV/Other: 62% Rep: 16%

17%

2% 29%

Approve stongly Approve somewhat Disapprove somewhat Disapprove stongly Don't know Trade

27 Importance of Trade: Portland Metro

How important for Oregon is it to support development of international trade: not 47% 43% at all important, not very important, somewhat important, or very important?

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Not at all important Not very important Somewhat important Very important Don’t know View Foreign Trade Mostly as an Opportunity for the US (Gallup)

Bush Obama

70% 66%

61% 60% 55% 56%

50% 48% 51% 46% 51% 51% 47%

40%

38% 36%

30%

20% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Democrats Republicans Support for Coal and Oil Transport

Do you support or oppose transporting coal through the Pacific Northwest and 18% 29% 18% 16% 19% exporting it to other countries from ports in Oregon and Washington?

Do you support or oppose transporting oil through the Pacific Northwest to 21% 35% 15% 8% 15% reach West Coast refineries, with the refined oil being used for domestic purposes?

Support-strongly Support-somewhat Oppose-somewhat Oppose-strongly Don't know Changing Communities

31

Median Age by Race

43 White 42

35 Asian 35

33 Native American 29

31 African American 32

24 Hispanic 27

Two or more 20

Oregon National US Median Income and Net Wealth by Race (2014/2013 dollars, US Census/Federal Reserve)

$91,000 Asian $67,000

$134,000 White $58,000

$14,000 Hispanic $41,000

African $11,000 American $35,000 Net Wealth Income Median Age by Vote History

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

All Oregonians Adult Oregonians All Registered 2 of 4 4 of 4 Q&A

37