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V21, 28 Thursday, March 24, 2016 Trump’s conundrum for IN Republicans Leaders say they will support the ‘nominee,’ while McIntosh raises down-ballot alarms By BRIAN A. HOWEY BLOOMINGTON – GOP presidential front runner Donald J. Trump is just days away from his Indiana political debut, and Hoosier Republicans are facing a multi-faceted conundrum. Do they join the cabal seeking to keep the nominating number of delegates away from him prior to the Republi- can National Convention in July? This coming as Trump impugns the wife of Sen. Ted Cruz, threatening to “spill the beans” on her after two weeks of cam- paign violence and nativist fear mongering representing a sharp departure dent Mitch Daniels, former secretary of state Condoleezza modern Indiana internationalism. Rice, former senator Tom Coburn or former Texas governor Do they participate in a united front seeking an Rick Perry? alternative such as Sen. Ted Cruz, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Or do they take the tack expressed by Gov. Mike or a dark horse consensus candidate such as Purdue Presi- Continued on page 3 Election year data By MORTON MARCUS INDIANAPOLIS – Let’s clarify some issues that may arise in this contentious political year. These data covering 2005 to 2015 may differ somewhat from those offered by other writers, speakers, and researchers. Why? These data are “This plan addresses our state’s from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “Quarterly Census of immediate road funding needs Wages and Employment” via the while ensuring legislators come Indiana Department of Workforce Development’s Hoosiers by the back to the table next year ready Numbers website, where only the first three quarters of 2015 are to move forward on a long-term available. Other researchers may plan.” use other data series based on dif- ferent sources. - House Speaker Brian Bosma In addition, here we are on signing of HEA1001 not coloring the picture to tell a Page 2 Howey Politics Indiana WWHowey Media, LLC 405 Massachusetts Ave., Suite 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 www.howeypolitics.com Brian A. Howey, Publisher Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Jack E. Howey, Editor Mary Lou Howey, Editor particular story or support a partisan gap increased to 21 percent in 2015. Maureen Hayden, Statehouse fantasy. We’re not saying what’s good 5. Hoosier state workers, by Mark Curry, photography or what’s bad. You can make that up contrast, had a real $82 (9.9%) in- on your own, as if you were running crease in weekly wages between 2005 for political office. and 2015. Their national counterparts Subscriptions Suggestion: Read slowly; saw an 8% increase. Whereas the HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 think how a political ad on TV would gap between Hoosier state govern- HPI Weekly, $350 use these data. ment employees and state job holders Ray Volpe, Account Manager 1. Indiana gained 52,300 jobs nationally favored the latter in 2005 from 2005 to 2015, with a 61,400 by 16%, that gap closed to 14% by 317.602.3620 increase in the private sector, but a 2015. email: [email protected] loss of 9,000 government jobs. While 6. The number of establish- Contact HPI private jobs in Indiana grew by 2.5%, ments (places where people work) in [email protected] nationally the growth was 6.4%. Indiana grew from 153,900 in 2005 to Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 2. Government jobs in Indi- 159,300 in 2015. This growth of 5,400 ana declined by 2.3% as the entire establishments was a 3.5% increase Washington: 202.256.5822 country saw a small 0.3% increase in compared with a nationwide advance Business Office: 317.602.3620 government jobs. State government of 11.3%. Note: Establishments are jobs for Hoosiers fell by nearly 4,500 not the same as companies. A fast © 2016, Howey Politics (4.9%) as job losses in local govern- food chain may be one company with Indiana. All rights reserved. ment totaled 4,600 (1.7 %). hundreds or thousands of establish- 3. Average weekly wages (ad- ments. Photocopying, Internet forward- justed for inflation) in Indiana’s private 7. The average private sector ing, faxing or reproducing in sector rose by $5.45 over the 10-year 2005 establishment in Indiana had any form, whole or part, is a period. The average private sector job 16.7 employees and 16.5 in 2015. In violation of federal law without across the nation paid $50.45 more contrast, the average establishment permission from the publisher. per week in 2015 than in 2005. Where nationally had 13.3 workers in 2005 the Hoosier job in the private sector and 12.7 10 years later. was worth 13% less than nationally in There’s lots of grist here for 2005, that gap grew to 17% by 2015. the miller who knows what to do with 4. Local Hoosier government these numbers. v workers averaged a $43 (5.7%) loss in real weekly wages in the decade. Mr. Marcus is an economist, Working for a local government in writer, and speaker who may Indiana in 2005 paid 14% less than a be reached at mortonjmarcus@ local government job nationally; that yahoo.com. Page 3 nominee. If Trump is elected, we lose the White House, Trump, from page 1 the Senate and the Supreme Court.” Pence, and U.S. Reps. Todd Young, Marlin Stutzman and Does Trump possess the potential to yank down Jackie Walroski that they will support the Republican the ticket? nominee, even it if means a gigantic millstone around their “The reality is in poll after poll, Hillary (Clinton) necks heading into November? clobbers Donald Trump next fall,” McIntosh said. “If the Former senator Dick Lugar said at the University party nominates him, it will have a down-ballot impact. of Southern Indiana last night of Trump, “He has been You’ll have straight ticket voting that will be difficult to able to speak to Americans that feel hurt, who feel that overcome.” somehow life has not treated them well, whether it be McIntosh cites 2008, when Barack Obama carried jobs that have been unfair, community situations, fear of Indiana and was able to pick off suburban Republicans immigrants or whatever may be the problem. And so in who were “inspired by him and didn’t like the Republican a dramatic way, almost melodra- choice” of John McCain. “That matic, he has attempted to sock same voting bloc could back it to them — to say these politi- Hillary, even with an indictment, cians, the presidency, Congress since she would be the first seri- and elsewhere are the cause of all ous woman presidential nomi- of this and you have to get rid of nee.” the whole lot. ... He’s very vulgar Stutzman campaign and impulsive but nevertheless is manager Joshua Kelley interprets very popular with people who are 2008 differently, noting that a feeling this hurt.” (Martin, Evans- number of voters split their tick- ville Courier & Press) ets, voting for Gov. Mitch Dan- Beyond Stutzman, who iels’ reelect as well as Obama. sees a pool of new Trump vot- As for Stutzman and a potential ers backing his anti-Washington Trump nomination, Kelley was crusade, Indiana Republicans are asked if the congressman would floating between paralysis, private support Trump as the nominee. panic and the silent dog whistle “Absolutely he will. Marlin thinks past the graveyard. efforts to try and undermine the Some Indiana Republican democratic process by whatever campaigns will only discuss this means is not good for the Re- on background, saying they are publican Party. We should respect concentrating on their own races. the process. The folks that are Gov. Mike Pence hasn’t had time coming out right now are tired of to take stock, his campaign told the status quo in establishment HPI on Wednesday. Politico re- politics. Since Marlin has been ported that U.S. Rep. Todd Young one to stand up to the status and State Sen. Erin Houchin quo, there is a natural overlap attended a Florida event for big there. Hoosiers have proven to GOP donors aimed at stopping be very independent thinkers and Trump, but both their campaigns won’t necessarily pull a straight insisted they simply were there to ballot, as we saw in 2008 with talk about issues. Daniels and Obama. And then there is Club “Both Trump and Cruz For Growth President David are extreme anti-establishment McIntosh, who has embraced the candidates,” Kelley said. “This is assessment of Indiana Republi- a very anti-establishment year.” can National Committeeman John There have been other Hammond III when he called examples of ticket-splitting, Trump “unfit” for the presidency. whether it was in McIntosh’s “I would urge them to let vot- 2000 election when he lost to ers know who the best nominee Gov. Frank O’Bannon 56-41%, is,” said McIntosh, the former while George W. Bush carried the Indiana congressman and 2000 state over Democrat Al Gore by Club For Growth President David McIntosh has tried to gubernatorial nominee. “The party a virtually identical margin. In derail the Donald Trump Republican presidential nomina- will thrive with Ted Cruz as the 1996, O’Bannon won the gov- Page 4 ernorship 51-46% over Republican Stephen Goldsmith, broached the topic,” said communications director Joe while Republican Bob Dole carried the state over President Frank. “He is definitely not going to support Hillary Clinton. Bill Clinton 47-41%, and in 1988 when Secretary of State It is more concerning how her agenda impacts Indiana. Evan Bayh defeated Lt. Gov John Mutz 53-46%, while the How does John Gregg respond to the elimination of coal George H.W.
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