Has the Tea Party Eclipsed the Republican Establishment in The

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o c DOI: 10.4172/2332-0761.1000183

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o s J ISSN: 2332-0761 Public Affairs Research Article Open Access Has the Tea Party Eclipsed the Republican Establishment in the 2016 Presidential Elections? Libby RT* University of North Florida, The Iowa Conference on Presidential Politics, Dordt College, Sioux Center, Iowa, USA

Abstract The premise of the paper is that Tea Party candidates for the presidency have an institutional advantage over establishment candidates in the Republican primaries and caucuses. The reason for this is that the Tea Party constitutes the base of the Republican Party. The majority of Republicans support the Tea Party and they constitute 64% of primary voters. The significance of the 2016 presidential elections is that the Tea Party emerged as the leading force in the national Republican Party. In the lead-up to the first presidential caucus in Iowa, three of the top five Republican candidates, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Ted Cruz are Tea Party-backed candidates. These three candidates alone are ranked number one by more than 50% of Republican voters in the polls. The combined number one ranking of all establishment candidates Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Chris Christy average only 30% of Republican voters in the polls. The paper explains the Tea Party’s 10 principles and “primary” strategy to defeat Republicans in Name Only (RINOs) in primaries. It also examines the campaign organizations of the Tea Party Candidates which is central to mobilizing the Tea Party vote in primaries and caucuses.

Keywords: Tea party; Republican; Presidential elections candidates’ image, speech, talking points, and prepping candidates for TV debates or interviews is no longer the coin of the realm. This is Introduction the reason that the print, TV, and radio media has been caught totally The premise of the paper is that Tea Party candidates have unprepared for the rise of Tea Party candidates in the 2016 election an institutional advantage over establishment candidates in the campaign. They will continue to be befuddled until they recognize Republican presidential primaries and caucuses. The reason is that the the emergence of a powerful Tea Party movement that dominates Tea Party constitutes the base of the Republican Party. The significance the base of the Republican Party. It should be obvious to all that of the 2016 Presidential elections is that the Tea Party has emerged as a simply dismissing Tea Party activists and candidates by calling them leading electoral force in the national Republican Party. Prior to 2012, extremists or radicals conceals the underlying reality. Even prescient the Tea Party focused its attention upon electing candidates to the house students of election politics such as Larry Sabato, fail to fully grasp the of representatives, US Senate, state and local offices [1]. Since that time, nature of the Tea Party movement. For example, Sabato concludes that the Tea Party has taken over the base of the Republican Party and its “Tea Party supporters are much more conservative than the American candidates are now able to compete for the office of the presidency. public on social as well as economic issues, more religious [4].” In According to the 2012 American National Election Study, the Tea Party fact, the Tea Party is not comprised of “Republicans.” All of the polls is the “most politically active segment of the GOP electoral base [2]. conducted on Tea Party activists have found that the partisan affiliation They are 57% of all GOP voters and 64% of Republican primary voters of Tea Party members is mixed. For example, one study by the Winston and 66% of “opinion leaders [2].” Based upon the survey, Tea Party Group that conducted three national surveys of 1,000 registered voters activists make-up over 60% of Republicans who contributed money to in 2010 found that four out of [1] Tea Party members are Democrats or the party and its candidates, attended rallies and worked on campaigns. Independents [5]. In a survey of 11,000 members of Freedom Works, A Pew survey carried out in July 2013, also found that 62 percent of Tea a non-profit organization that supports Tea Party election campaigns, Party Republicans reported voting regularly in Republican primaries. carried out in 2013, concluded “Tea Party Activists are not Republicans This compared with 45 percent of other Republicans [3]. [6].” Early Leaders in the 2016 Campaign Origins of the Tea Party Given the importance of the Tea Party, It is not surprising that To understand the Tea Party, it is necessary to examine its origins. their candidates are the early leaders for the Republican presidential The Tea Party came into existence in the summer of 2009 in response to nomination. Nevertheless, Tea Party candidates must compete for Obama’s proposed Affordable Health Care Act. The massive scope and the support of the base of the party. That means that while Tea Party candidates may change their ranking during the six-month state primary/caucus marathon (i.e., from February to July 2016), they *Corresponding author: Ronald T Libby, University of North Florida, The Iowa have an institutional advantage to win the nomination. Another way Conference on Presidential Politics, Dordt College, Sioux Center, Iowa, USA, Tel: of putting it is that Tea Party candidates such as Donald Trump, Ben 19046201000; E-mail: [email protected] Carson and Ted Cruz can win the nomination without the support of Received November 23, 2015; Accepted December 03, 2015; Published the Republican establishment. However an establishment candidate December 10, 2015 such as Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, John Kasich or Chris Citation: Libby RT (2015) Has the Tea Party Eclipsed the Republican Establishment Christy would have great difficulty winning the nomination without in the 2016 Presidential Elections? J Pol Sci Pub Aff 3: 183. doi:10.4172/2332- Tea Party support. The old rules governing the Republican nomination 0761.1000183 process appear to no longer apply. That is to say, having the largest Copyright: © 2015 Libby RT. This is an open-access article distributed under the campaign war-chest, avoiding language that may offend “identity terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and groups” such as young single women, blacks or Hispanics, polishing source are credited.

J Pol Sci Pub Aff ISSN: 2332-0761 JPSPA, an open access journal Volume 3 • Issue 3 • 1000183 Citation: Libby RT (2015) Has the Tea Party Eclipsed the Republican Establishment in the 2016 Presidential Elections? J Pol Sci Pub Aff 3: 183. doi:10.4172/2332-0761.1000183

Page 2 of 10 cost of the proposal (involving as much as one-sixth of the economy) defeat of Charlie Christ in Florida in 2010. Ted Cruz defeated a RINO, triggered widespread protests at congressional town hall meetings Lieutenant Governor of Texas, David Dewhurst in a 2012 primary. throughout the country. From the Tea Party perspective, it was the last In 2014,the Tea Party” primaried” RINO Republican House Majority straw of huge deficit spending and burgeoning debt that began with Leader, Eric Cantor. Cantor was defeated in Virginia’s 7th congressional the George W. Bush administration’s $700 billion dollar Trouble Asset district by a virtually unknown economics professor and Tea Party Recovery Program (TARP). TARP bailed-out over a thousand large activist, Dave Brat. Tea Party activists regard prominent Republican banks and mortgage, car, and insurance companies and Obama’s $800 leaders such as former Speaker of the House, John Boehner (R-OH) billion stimulus spending project which primarily benefited Wall Street [8], Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), senior senators banks and corporations. such as John McCain (R-AZ), Rick Santorum (R-PA), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), and presidential candidates such as governors of New Jersey, By protesting these policies, Tea Party activists were merely Chris Christy, Ohio, John Kasich, Louisiana, Bobby Jindal, New York, following the historical precedent of the original Tea Party activists of George Pataki, Georgia, John Gilliam and Carly Fiorina, the CEO of the 1750s called the Sons of Liberty. Like the Sons of Liberty, modern- Hewlett-Packard Co., as RINOs. The Republican National Committee day Tea Party activists created grassroots organizations in every state (RNC) chairman, Reince Priebus, and former chairman of the RNC, in the country [7]. However, the contemporary Tea Party movement Michael Steel, and Republican advisers such as Karl Rove, Republican is a virtual community with thousands of local organizations and journalists and pundits such as Gary Wills and Charles Krauthammer millions of supporters. They are in rebellion against the leadership and TV talk show host, Bill O’Reilly, are also regarded as RINOs. of the Republican Party. The only reason they vote Republican is With the exception of a handful of media outlets such as TV and the party’s historical populist tradition and emphasis upon fiscal radio talk show host, Sean Hannity, and radio host, Rush Limbaugh, responsibility. In other words, they are copying the original Republican Tea Party activists are skeptical about the media. Indeed, They believe Party founded by Thomas Jefferson in the 1790s that was designed to that the media represents big business that serves the interests of the oppose the creation of a powerful central bank allied to economic establishment and therefore, is patronizing and contemptuous of elites. Unlike the Federalist Party, however, Jefferson’s Republican working, and middle, class Americans. For this reason, media criticism Party appealed for support from yeoman farmers who constituted the of unscripted, impromptu politically incorrect comments made by base of the economy at the time. The first Republican Party, created by Tea Party candidates does not resonate with them. This explains the Thomas Jefferson and James Madison, was formed in reaction to the fact that none of Donald Trump’s, Ben Carson’s or Ted Cruz’s verbal centralizing policies of the Federalist Party. The Republicans came to indiscretions or peccadillos has adversely affected their standing in the power in 1800 and dominated national and state affairs until the 1820s. polls. To the contrary, their politically incorrect language enhances The Republican Party was “Anti-Administration” and it opposed the their image as strong leaders who possess the courage to challenge the Federalist Party that was organized by the Secretary of the Treasury, Republican and Democrat leadership. Alexander Hamilton. Jefferson opposed Hamilton’s financial programs that were based upon the power of the central bank. Jefferson feared Trump Perplexes GOP Power Brokers that the bank would lead the country towards aristocracy and subvert constitutional Republicanism. Tea Party activists today have the same The most important groups comprising the Republican fear. establishment are the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the political network of Charles G. and David H. Koch, and the Karl Rove-founded The Contemporary Tea Party American Crossroads, the Republican Party’s super PAC. David McIntosh, the President of the Koch-funded Club for Growth has Modern Tea Party activists view both Democrat and Republican confessed that they were grappling with how best to handle Trump. elites as an “aristocracy”- i.e., a corporate elite supported by the According to McIntosh, Trump’s appeal to voters is that he has “tapped federal government. They see government programs such as TARP, into the raw Anger of Republican voters against Washington leaders the Stimulus, quantitative easing and zero interest rates by the Federal [9].” In his view, the problem for the establishment is that many Reserve as serving the interests of economic elites. By contrast, millions voters agree with Trump’s argument that Washington is ineffectual. of working, and middle-class Americans, lost their savings, homes, Republican donors and strategists are puzzled, therefore, about how jobs and businesses during the recessions of 2009-2010 and did not to topple Trump. He has stirred the Tea Party base of the Republican receive any financial assistance from the federal government. Tea Party Party and the establishment has lost control of the party. Andy Sabin, activists have organized themselves at the grassroots level to replace a New York supporter of Jeb Bush said that discussions about what to the leadership of the Republican Party. They call them Republicans in do about Trump had come up repeatedly on a recent Hampton’s fund- Name Only (RINOs). The Tea Party’s campaign strategy is to “primary” raiding circuit. Sabin who is also a donor to American Crossroads, said (i.e., defeat RINOs in Republican primaries and caucuses). This is a “(Trump) has been vile but he has also been able to bring out what potent strategy because only one third of Republicans vote in primaries. people feel about their government [10]. The cost of an anti-Trump Therefore, the influence of motivated Tea Party voters is magnified campaign would be daunting with no certainty of success. Since Trump in primary elections and caucuses. The first successful Tea Party is a wealthy candidate himself with universal name recognition and an campaign was waged against a RINO in the 23rd Congressional District ability to get free airtime and newspaper headlines, it could cost the of up-state New York by the name of Dierdre K. “Dede” Scozzafava. establishment at least $20 million to wage a media campaign against The Tea Party defeated this handpicked Republican RINO who was him. If they waged a campaign against Fox News’ viewers, it could cost supported by the Republican Party establishment in Washington D.C. them $2 million per week and a campaign targeting Iowa caucus-goers The defeat of the RINO candidate led to the Tea Party’s use of her would cost them $10 million. They fear that such a campaign might name, Scozzafava, to describe the strategy. Since 2009, the Tea Party’s fail and create a backlash against them. It is certain to start a war with Scozzafava strategy has been used many times to remove leaders of the Trump who would fight back with a vengeance. Such a campaign would Republican Party. Casualties of the primary strategy include Senator play into Trump’s narrative that Republican elites were scheming Robert Bennett’s defeat by Mike Lee in Utah and Marco Rubio’s to take control of the presidency. Hence, they have followed a lower

Page 3 of 10 profile strategy. They decided that Trump voters could only really policy views. It included Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz [13], Marco Rubio, Scott be persuaded to abandon him by rival candidates and not by super Walker, Carly Fiorina and Rand Paul. Donald Trump was not invited PACs. Therefore, they have funded Trump’s strongest RINO rivals— despite the fact that his campaign staff filled out the CFG questionnaire especially Bush, Rubio and Fiorina and then tried to orchestrate their that was required to attend the meeting. Trump was also denied anti-Trump attacks. Their strategy was based upon the premise that support from the Kochs’ Americans for Prosperity (AFP), i360 their media attacks by rival candidates would deflate Trump’s standing in voting research company, and their Hispanic campaign organization, the polls and that by the time the Florida primary came around (March LIBRE Initiative. 15th), Bush or Rubio would still be standing. The smart money was The Americans for Prosperity (AFP) is particularly important to betting that Rubio would likely emerge as the eventual Republican Donald Trump because of its grassroots nature and the fact that they nominee. They reasoned that with the exception of Wendell Willkee in have fulltime chapters in 35 states including the first four Republican 1940, the Republican nominee has never been an outsider. Like Trump, primaries/caucus states—Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Wendell Willkee was a former Democrat and corporate attorney and Carolina. The AFP was also affiliated with 2.3 million Tea Party and executive. They think that also like Willkee who was crushed by FDR Veteran activists in almost every state in the union. There were 45,000 in the election, Trump would lose to the Democrat candidate. The Tea Party activists in 99 counties in Iowa, the first caucus state. AFP’s establishment view was that Rubio would only have to finish fourth stated goal is to “educate citizens about economic policy and the or higher in the Iowa and New Hampshire primary/caucus for his importance of returning the federal government to its Constitutional nomination prospects to rise with a likely win in Florida. limits [14].” The AFP supports cutting taxes, government spending, War of words with trump ending government waste and fraud, reducing government regulation of energy, government healthcare and intrusion into the lives of most Following the establishment’s strategy, RINO candidates have tried Americans. A Bloomberg news report correctly observed that the Koch to use Donald Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric to sink his candidacy. brothers “harnessed the Tea Party’s energy in service of their own For example, in response to Trump’s comments about John McCain, policy goals. As the Tea Party movement grew, the AFP emerged as its that he “liked people that weren’t captured,” Marco Rubio said that staunchest ally [15].” However, since the Tea Party does not support Trump’s remarks against Senator McCain “disqualified” him to be the establishment’s three major legislative policy goals, there is some president. And after Trump made comments equating illegal Mexican separation between the AFP and the Tea Party. A Koch founded immigrants to “rapists and criminals” and “anchor babies”, Jeb Bush non-profit, Freedom Partners, also created a private voting research twitted, “Enough with the slanderous attacks.” South Carolina Senator, company called i360. It has become the leading supplier of conservative Lindsey Graham, also said that Trump had “crossed the line and voter data. It has a massive database of 191 million voters. According predicted the American voter would tell him, ‘You’re fired’.” This to President Michael Palmer, the company gathers details about an strategy has backfired, however. They turned out to be more damaging individual’s consumer habits, voter registration and Twitter activity. to the candidates. Bush’s criticism of Trump, for example, merely Palmer’s i360 and the RNC voting data company, Data Trust, signed an called attention to his own remark in 2014, that illegal immigration agreement in 2015 to share voting data for the 2016 elections. Trump’s across the southern border “isn’t a felony-it’s an act of love” because campaign asked i360 if they could get access to the voting database they are in search of a better life and should have the sympathy of and were refused. Likewise, a Koch-backed Latino-voter-targeting Americans. In response, Trump ran a 15-second TV ad containing a organization, LIBRE Initiative refused to invite Trump to any of its series of mug shots showing three such border-crossers who had been events and called him “an inconsistent conservative who has gotten charged with murder. The first mug shot was that of Francisco Sanchez, ahead through sensationalism [16].” The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, an illegal immigrant charged with the killing 32-year old Kate Steinle in backed by mega corporations has also declared war on Donald Trump, San Francisco (a Sanctuary city) after being deported from the United and all Tea Party conservatives. The chamber announced that they States five times [11]. Trump concluded the ad by saying that these planned to spend $100 million in 2016 to defeat Tea Party candidates illegal immigrants are hardly an act of love. Bush’s polls numbers in Republican primaries. Their top target is Donald Trump and who dropped precipitously after this controversy from a high of 15% to a has opposed their corporate agenda in Congress [17]. low of only 4%. The Chamber President, Tom Donohue, listed their agenda for Establishment denies trump support 2015. Republican donors have also tried to prevent Donald Trump from 1. Full implementation of ObamaCare without repeal. getting campaign support that was available to his rivals. For example, the billionaire Koch Brothers and their network, a coalition of 450 2. Comprehensive Immigration Reform to include Amnesty. individual donors, independent groups and companies, have snubbed 3. Full implementation of Common Core education standards. Trump. The Koch network is sometimes called the alternative base of the Republican Party—including their super PAC, the Club For Growth Wall Street and the Chamber of Commerce have funded these (CFG). According to CFG President, David Mcintosh, they decided to priorities. They want government healthcare, more immigration and undertake a campaign against Trump in Iowa because he “would be a national educational policy because it “levels the playing field” of terrible leader on economic growth. He is the worst kind of politician, the global economy. That means that government spending in these he says anything to get elected, and he’ll do just the opposite when in three areas lowers their cost of production. They reason is that their office [12]. The significance of the Kochs’ snub of Trump is that they international competitors have government health care and low-cost planned to spend $889 million during the Republican nomination skilled labor. Therefore to be competitive they also want the U.S. phase of the election campaign. They have denied campaign funds to government to pick up the costs of health care and the education of Trump but gave it to his rivals. For example, the Koch brothers held a their workers. They also want a large immigrant pool of skilled workers three-day meeting in Orange County, California during the summer of to lower their costs of production and help them compete in the 2015. They invited Republican candidates who shared their economic world market. Therefore, they have financed opponents of Tea Party

Page 4 of 10 candidates such as Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Carly Fiorina. Wall September 16, 2015 [19]. Under the old rules, Fiorina would have been Street prefers a Bush v. Clinton election in 2016 because they believe ranked 2.2% in the polls or ranked in 11th place and thus would have the candidates are “two sides of the same coin.” Wall Street wins with been relegated to the “loser” or “children’s hour.” However, under the either candidate. However, they could accept Marco Rubio or Carly new, revised rules, she was ranked at 4.4% or ranked in 7th place and Fiorina if Bush faltered in the primaries. By contrast, Donald Trump thus was included in the “happy hour” (“prime time”) debate. After and the Tea Party oppose the corporate agenda and this has started a the second debate, Fiorina standing in public opinion rose to 11.3% war between the Republican establishment and the Tea Party [18]. in a Real Clear Politics average poll. However, Tea Party activists and regard Fiorina as a RINO. Therefore, without Tea Party support it Republican Campaign Philosophy would be difficult for her to secure the Republican nomination [20]. The reason that the Republican establishment wished to eliminate Indeed, the polling trends from June 2015 to September 2015, suggest Trump’s candidacy is that he challenged the party’s electoral that Fiorina has took the place of Bush as the leading establishment philosophy. That philosophy was first established in 1994 when Newt candidate. For example, in the August 13-16, 2015 CNN ORC poll, Gingrich created a 10-point Contract with America as the basis of the Bush was the preferred candidate by 13% compared to Fiorina’s 5% and Republican congressional campaign. They stunned the Democrats in the September 17-19, 2015 poll, Fiorina led by 15% whereas Bush by winning control of Congress and elected Gingrich Speaker of the dropped to only 9%. During the same period, Trump remained at 24% House. The Republicans retained control of the House for the next 12 and Carson increased his vote from 9% to 14% [21]. In fact Trump and years. Gingrich’s electoral philosophy was called the “big tent” strategy. Carson combined, received 33% of the vote in August and increased The strategy was designed to appeal to non-Republican independents that percentage to 38% in September. This suggests that Bush and in order to expand the base of the party and thus win more elections. Fiorina are competing for the same bloc of pro-establishment voters By big tent, Gingrich meant that liberal views were welcomed in the without making any inroads into the Tea Party voting constituency. Republican Party. Since America was a big, complex country, it was The tea party’s campaign strategy necessary for Republicans to create a big coalition of diverse (i.e., liberal and conservative) opinion. The GOP from then on sought to carry out The Tea Party has an entirely different election campaign strategy. the big tent strategy by relying upon public opinion polls as the basis They believe that Mitt Romney’s loss to President Obama in 2012 was of their campaign agenda. Pollsters told Republican leaders that in due to the Republican Party’s selection of a “weak, moderate, hand- order to win more elections, they had to transform their “intolerant picked” candidate by the Republican establishment. According to Jenny conservative” image by electing “moderates” in liberal districts and Beth Martin of the Tea Party Patriots, the election debacle was due to states. In other words, they could only win in “blue” states by following their failure to select a candidate who embraced the principles of the the advice of pollsters and campaign professionals. Gingrich and Tea Party i.e., limited government principles of the conservative base others began to admonish conservatives in the Republican Party of the Republican Party [22]. The Tea Party’s model campaign strategy to be more “pragmatic” and to support moderate, meaning liberal, is Ronald Reagan. According to Sarah Palin, Reagan warned the party Republican Candidates. Gingrich’s big tent strategy had thus become against “blurring the (party) lines.” He felt that Republican campaigns the conventional wisdom of the Republican Party. that are designed to win the support of Democrats and Independents are the wrong strategy. This can only lead to a “me too” Republican Republican’s campaign strategy Party without any real difference with the Democrats. In fact, Tea Party The Republican Party’s postmortem for its failed 2012 presidential activists refer to Liberal Republicans as “Democrat-lite.” By contrast, election bid, set the stage for their 2016 election strategy. The Republican they believe that the Republican Party must stand for something. pollsters basically copied the Democrat Party’s election strategy. That Ronald Reagan did not pander to special interests or “identity groups” was based upon the premise that Mitt Romney lost the election because such as blacks, Hispanics, Evangelicals, or young single professional he relied too much on the “suburban white voter.” This was a failing women to win elections. His campaigns were based upon conservative strategy because since 1992, the share of these voters shrank from 87 principles. Tea Party activists use the analogy of a “magnet” that percent of the electorate to 83 percent in 1996, 80 percent in 2000, attracted Independent and liberal voters who were sick and tired of 77 percent in 2004, 74 percent in 2008 and was even less in 2012. The what was going on in Washington. Reagan did not try to ingratiate Republicans believe that they were in a no-win situation of their own himself to the Democrat opposition by diluting conservatism and this making. In other words, the party’s reliance upon a decline in the propelled him and the party to victory. Tea Party activists believe that percentage of white voters ignored the fastest demographic voting bloc moderate Republican presidential candidates such as Gerald Ford, Bob in the country Hispanics. Republican campaign strategists also argued Dole, John McCain and Mitt Romney all lost presidential elections that Romney’s “antiquated” or traditional view of women and the because they could not win over the conservative grassroots center of failure of the party to nominate women candidates resulted in a “gender the party. Ironically, their highly vaunted electability as “moderates” voting gap.” Therefore, the conventional wisdom among Republican was precisely the reason that they lost the elections. Tea Party activists campaign advisers was that the party should reverse the “Hispanic reluctantly supported Mitt Romney in 2012 but as many as three voting gap” and the “gender gap” by nominating Hispanic and women million did not turn out to vote for him. The Tea Party feels the same candidates. This explains the RNC’s embrace of Marco Rubio and Carly way toward the 2016 establishment candidates including Bush, Rubio Fioina as their secondary, preferred candidates. This was the reason, and Fionia. for example, that Rubio was selected by the Republican Party to give The Tea Party’s 10 Principles a speech to the presidential nominating convention in august 2012. It was the final day of the convention and was designed to preview Rubio Tea Party activists subscribe to 10 basic principles that were as a possible future candidate for the nomination in 2016. Likewise, patterned after Newt Gingrich’s 10 points of the Contract With despite Carly Fiorina’s relatively low standing in the polls before the America. Only the Tea Party’s 10 point Contract From America was first president debate, the RNC agreed to her demand that RNC rules based upon more than half a million Tea Party Activists voting for it. governing the debate be changed for the second debate scheduled for Ryan Hecker designed the Tea Party Contract. He was a 31-year old

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Jewish, Harvard trained Law School attorney. Hecker sought to create without first securing the US southern border with Mexico. Since a new Republican platform to take back control of the party and the national security of the country is the first principle of the Tea Party, country from the political establishment [23]. The 10 points of the Tea this undermined their support for him. Indeed, Rubio’s collapse in the Party Contract are as follows. polls reveals this drop in support. In April 2015, he led the Republican field with an 18-point approval poll but by October 2015, he dropped 1. Protect the Constitution to less than nine percent. No amount of support from the Republican 2. Reject Cap and Trade Party is likely to help him overcome this deficit. Rand Paul was also elected 2010 to the Senate from Kentucky with his father’s Tea Party 3. Demand a Balanced Budget support. However, he was never able to expand his support beyond 4. Enact Fundamental Tax reform Ron Paul’s Libertarian constituency he could not match his father’s fund raising ability in the 2012 campaign.. Rand Paul’s campaign was 5. Competitive Health Care insurance across state lines particularly hurt in the polls by his noninterventionist stance against 6. End Runaway Government Spending Islamic Terrorism in the Middle East and insistence upon placing strict limits on the National Security Agency’s electronic surveillance of 7. Defund, Repeal and Replace Government-run Health Care potential terror threats. His standing in the RCP average in September 8. Pass “All of the Above” Energy Policy 2015 sank to only 2.2 percent. Jeb Bush, and all of the other Republican establishment candidates are languishing without Tea Party support 9. Stop the Pork and are at 11 percent or below in the polls. Their policy expertise, 10. Stop the Tax Hike experience in political office, campaign funding, or oratorical skills on TV cannot overcome this absence of Tea Party support at the base of It is important to recognize that the Tea Party did not include social the party. issues in its platform. Ryan Hecker had the foresight to recognize that social issues such as gay marriage and abortion, for example, would be According to the Real Clear Politics average of major national divisive and therefore, would not unify the Tea Party movement. Foreign polls, trump led the pack of 15 candidates by 23.3 percent followed by policy was also excluded from the Tea Party agenda. That means that Ben Carson at 16.3 percent, Carly Fiorina, at 11.8%, Marco Rubio with Tea Party activists include social liberals and evangelicals under their 9.5%, and Jeb Bush with 9.0 percent, Cruz 6.2 percent. Trump led the banner. Likewise, it includes foreign policy non-interventionist such as Republican field by an average spread of 7 percent [24]. Rand Paul and interventionists such as Marco Rubio. The core of the 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination movement is the constitutional principles of “separation of powers,” and the Bill of Rights (i.e., the first 10 amendments of the Constitution) National: GOP (Table 1) limiting the size and intrusion of the federal government into the lives Table 1: Polling Data of ordinary Americans. That also means an end to “crony capitalism” or government subsidies to green industries that are not economically Donald Trump’s phenomenal rise in the Republican presidential viable and removing regulatory restrictions on energy production, primary polls is almost unprecedented. Polling experts are dumfounded lowering burdensome taxation, and eliminating mandates on by his rocketing to the top position in state and national polls. For businesses and taxpayers especially the Affordable Healthcare Act. Tea example, Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Party activists believe that Congress has surrendered its constitutional Polling Institute said “throw out the rulebook when it comes to authority to legislate and has allowed the executive and judicial Trump.” His meteoric rise in the polls challenges the conventional branches of government to usurp the powers of people. Presidential wisdom in presidential politics [25]. Trump’s favorability among executive orders, for example, to negotiate a nuclear treaty with Iran Republican voters rose from 20 percent to 52 percent within one and Supreme Court overreaching to remake legislation deciding that month of announcing his candidacy in June 16th between July and the Affordable Health Act is a tax bill, and executive amnesty for August 2015. No candidate in modern history has accomplished such a illegal aliens are perceived as threats to the Republic. The Tea Party is fete. The polls also showed him leading by five percent over his nearest particularly upset that in 2014, the Republicans won control of both Republican rival in Iowa and New Hampshire and by 15 percent in houses of Congress and yet the leadership refused to fight against out- South Carolina. Polling experts such as Lee Miring off said “Trump of-control federal spending, growth of the national debt and funded is weathering political storms that would doom other candidates the Affordable Health Care Act. For that reason they are determined [26].” Donald Trump’s unexpected success has alarmed the GOP and to remove the Republican leadership of Congress and place a Tea Party establishment candidates especially Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Carly Candidate such as Trump, Carson, or Cruz in the White House in Fiorina. Trump’s critics have made two claims about his candidacy. 2016. They are also determined to replace the congressional leadership The first is that if he were the nominee, he would alienate independent- with Tea Party leaders. leaning Republican voters resulting in Republicans losing the general Leading Tea Party Candidates in 2016 Poll Bush Date Rubio Trump Carson Fiorina Rubio As of September 2015, three of the top five Republican presidential RCP average 9/17-9/28 2 3 . 3 1 6 . 3 1 1 . 8 9.5-9.0 candidates: Trump, Carson and Cruz were Tea Party candidates. USA/Suffolk 9/24-9/28 23 13 13 9 -8 Marco Rubio, a fourth potential Tea Party candidate won election to NBC/WSJ 9/20-9/24 21 20 11 11-7 the US Senate from Florida in 2010 with Tea Party support. However, Fox News 9/20-9/22 26 18 9 9-7 once in the Senate, he distanced himself from the Tea Party by refusing Bloomberg 9/18-9/21 21 16 11 8 to join the Senate Tea Party Caucus. As the head of the so-called “gang Quinnipiac 9/17-9/21 25 17 12 9-10 of eight” bipartisan senators sponsored a bipartisan comprehensive CNN/ORC 9/17-9/19 24 14 15 11 -9 immigration bill which included a form of amnesty for illegal aliens Table 1: Polling Data.

Page 6 of 10 election. Secondly, if he did not get the nomination, he would run as a throughout K; the country. For example, In April 2014, Donald Trump third party candidate that would also cost the Republicans the election. addressed a Tea Party Freedom Summit in Manchester, N.H. When They cite as evidence of this threat a recent Rasmussen poll that found he entered the room, he was greeted with a standing ovation and 36 percent of Republican voters said they would back Trump even if he Trump declared the “Tea Party loves me.” The chairman introduced ran as a third party candidate. And according to a Rasmussen Report, him as “the only person who could tell the president, “You’re fired 19 percent of Democrat voters said they were were likely to vote for [31].” Trump also addressed the South Carolina Tea Party Convention Trump [27]. in January 2015. Joe Dugan, the head of the Myrtle Beach Tea Party and organizer of the annual conference, praised Trump as “a solid Campaign Organization of Tea Party Candidates’ opponent of amnesty and part of their “stellar (Tea Party) lineup” While Tea Party candidates have a potential institutional including Ted Cruz and Ben Carson [32]. In September of 2015, the advantage over establishment candidates in Republican primaries, Tea Party Patriots (TPP), a national coalition of more than 3000 Tea they nevertheless must compete for Tea Party support. To use a sports Party groups organized a protest rally to pressure Congress to block the analogy, it is commonplace for football, basketball or soccer enthusiasts Iran nuclear agreement. Trump and Cruz were the headliners who were to have favorite teams and players. The same applies to competition in invited to address thousands of protestors at the rally along with other presidential campaigns. There are four Tea Party candidates among the Tea Party leaders such as Sarah Palin and conservative broadcaster, 15 remaining candidates for the nomination. They are Donald Trump, Mark Levin [33]. In addition to giving speeches to Tea Party groups Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, and Rand Paul. Their standing in opinion polls throughout the country, Trump co-opted the leadership of grassroots in primary/caucus elections is based in large part upon their statewide organizations in order to mobilize Tea Party voters to support his campaign organizations. In other words, some Tea Party candidates candidacy. Because the Koch brothers blocked any support for Donald have been more successful than others in organizing and mobilizing Trump’s candidacy, Trump out-smarted David Koch by hiring the Tea Party voters. This is clearly evident in the early primary/caucus leadership of their grassroots Americans for Prosperity (AFP) out from states—Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Indeed, many under him. Trump hired Corey Lewandowski in February 2015 to be pollsters regard these states as representative of regional trends in the his national campaign manager. At the time, Lewandowski was the country. Iowa represents the mid-west, New Hampshire the north east, National Director of voter registration for Americans for Prosperity. and South Carolina the south. He joined the AFP in 2008 as the East Coast regional director and New Hampshire state director. Donald trump’s campaign organization Trump first met Lewandowski in April 2014 at an AFP and Tea Party Donald Trump attributes his decision to enter the 2016 race to (Citizens United) “Freedom Summit” in New Hampshire. This was the the Tea Party. Four years ago, Trump stood before a cheering crowd first meeting of Republican candidates for the 2016 election. They met sponsored by the South Florida Tea Party and declared that he “had and decided to stay in communication. Lewandowski agreed to manage the qualities needed for the White House [28].” Everett Wilkinson of Donald Trump’s campaign shortly after he announced his candidacy in Palm Beach Gardens who organized the rally said at the time “Now March 2015. As the director of the New Hampshire AFP, Lewandowski that (Trump) has decided to run, the support that he gained there showed his skill to draw large crowds to events with attention-getting has become a whole lot more to where he is the leading candidate.” gimmicks. For example, in 2010, he organized a Tax Day rally in which However, the reason that the Tea Party supports Trump is simple. he produced a cardboard cutout of Democrat Governor John Lynch on What they like about him is his “Trumpisms and his message“. Make the steps of the Capitol building and began debating it. Lewandowski American Great Again [29].” This message resonated with the Tea has been Trump’s constant companion since then. Lewandowski Party from its founding in 2009. Obama’s message of “fundamentally explained Donald Trump’s unconventional campaign style. He said changing America scared a lot of hard working over-taxed citizens. that Trump has no use for the “GOP establishment consultant class.” Eric Olson, a leader of the Montana Tea Party explained that the Tea Consultants, pollsters and pundits, have no say in Trump’s campaign Party’s voice imploring conservatives to Make America Great Again or platform. Donald Trump is his own spokesman, campaign manager was the impetus for the Republican Party taking over of the House and political consultant. According to Lewandowski, the “consultant of Representatives in 2010. Trump now embodies that voice and is class” is “grasping at straws to find a way to stop him from being a perfect example of how someone’s life experience can lead him to the nominee. “ Lewandowski described their initial criticism in conservatism. Dr. Gina Loudon, an early Tea Party organizer and host the following way. He won’t file the paperwork. He won’t fill out his of “America Trends with Dr. Gina,” explained Trump’s appeal in the personal financial disclosure statement. He won’t be a factor in the race following way. [34]. Time and again they have been wrong and continue to be wrong. Lewandowski said “We have a large team in place in Iowa, a big team The whole idea of the Tea Party was to get people to come into in South Carolina, and a big team in New Hampshire. The number conservatism. Trump’s actions make it okay for other Americans to do of people volunteering for the campaign is incredible and humbling the same. With his action has come a mass migration of people into the [35]. Trump also hired, Michael Glassner, another Tea Party campaign conservative movement. You don’t have to want Trump to be president operative as his National Political Director. Glassner worked for the to see that he opened the doors of conversation for the voiceless. And this McCain-Palin campaign in 2008, for Joe Miller as Alaska’s GOP Senate hit the establishment and political correctness right in the face. Whether candidate, and for Sarah Palin as her chief of staff in 2011. Glassner fits he becomes the voice of those silenced or the President of the United the mold of Donald Trump’s management style. His is an effective detail States, it is hard to overlook what he has done for conservatism and how man assigned the task of “organizing the best grassroots network in the he has buffered our know conservatives in the race, such as Cruz and country [36].” Donald Trump added 10 more top political strategists Carson that the establishment would otherwise have vilified by now [30]. spearheading the grassroots organizing in Iowa, New Hampshire The Tea Party movement remains Trump’s base of support and and South Carolina. For example, he hired veteran strategist, Chuck that has propelled him to the head of the Republican pack in national Laudner to spearhead the campaign in Iowa, Matt Ciepielowski in polls. Since 2011, Trump had continued to address Tea Party groups New Hampshire and Gerri McDaniel in South Carolina. All of them

Page 7 of 10 had extensive experience conducting grassroots campaigns for the between Long and Trump in LeMieux estimate, is that Long had an Americans for Prosperity and for Tea Party candidates. For example, ideological set of beliefs (wealth distribution) whereas Trump has none Chuck Laudner was the campaign coordinator for the Tea Party [41].”Despite these criticisms, however, most Tea Party activists see him Patriots in Iowa. Formerly, he was the chief of staff to Iowa congressman as their best hope for a strong leader who will challenge the Republican Steven King from 2003 to 2006. Steven King was the co-founder, along establishment and return the country to the historic traditions. They with Michele Bachmann, of the Republican Congressional Tea Party like Trump’s success in business and his blunt rhetoric. But, most of Caucus. He was widely regarded as a power broker in Iowa Republican all, they value his willingness to challenge the Republican elite even in politics. King has backed Trump. He said that Trump’s [37] remarks the face of media attacks and ostracism by Washington and Wall Street. about illegal immigration were riding a wave of support and if the Like most Americans, they dislike the political correctness of the elite Iowa caucus were held today, he would “come out on top.” Gerri and are cheered by the fact that the more the establishment attacks him, McDaniel worked on Governor Nikki Haley’s gubernatorial campaign. the more popular he becomes. The politically correct weapon that the Nikki Haley was a Tea Party endorsed candidate when she ran for establishment has used against the Tea Party since 2009, by branding Governor of South Carolina. She supported the election of two Tea them “extremists,” “racists,” “sexists,” “homophes” and Islamophobes” Party senators from South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint and then no longer works. The Tea Party understands this tactic and is immune appointed Tim Scott to fill his seat in 2013 when DeMint resigned. to it. Nevertheless, the media and establishment elites continue to Matt Ciepielowski was appointed the New Hampshire field director at demand that Donald Trump withdraw from the presidential campaign Americans for Prosperity and was formerly, the Youth for Ron Paul because he does not follow the elite’s language etiquette. The short- regional coordinator in Louisiana, 2011-2012. Another coup for the hand for this is that the “Donald is not presidential.” Trump campaign in Iowa was the hiring of strategist Sam Covis, once proclaimed a “conservative icon.” He is a popular Iowa talk radio host Ben Carson’s Campaign Organization and previously worked for Rick Santorium’s victorious campaign in Dr. Benjamin Carson is a 63-year old retired African-American the 2012 Iowa caucus. Covis and Chuck Laudner co-chair the Iowa neurosurgeon. He decided to enter the Republican presidential state campaign. Trump’s campaign organization fits his personality campaign after he appeared at a National Prayer Breakfast in May 2013. and it appeals to the Tea Party. He is his own man and is not controlled At the prayer breakfast, Carson made a 27-minute presentation with by others. His independent style is the basis of the conflict with the President Obama seated at a table on the dais a few feet away from him. Republican Party leadership and campaign donors, however, this is Dr. Carson talked about the dangers to the Republic of huge federal highly attractive to Tea Party activists. They particularly like the fact deficit-spending, political correctness, the collapse of public education, that he is self-financing his campaign and thus is not beholden to any the irrationality of the tax code and the waste and inefficiency of special interests. In August 2015, Laudner reported that the campaign Obama care. had so many volunteers that they have trouble tracking all of them. However, they have volunteers down to all 1,774 voting precincts in Obama was embarrassed and offended and within 15 minutes Iowa. They have expressed confidence that they will be able to “build a of the breakfast, the sponsors of the prayer breakfast asked Carson grassroots movement and seal the deal with interested voters [38]. Tea to apologize to the president but Carson refused saying that he had Party support for Donald Trump is widespread but not irrevocable. His nothing for which to apologize unless the president felt that Carson’s potential Achilles heel is two-fold: his history of political independence comments applied to him. The video went viral and millions of Tea and fear of demagoguery. Glenn Beck, who inspired one branch of the Party activists throughout the country saw it. Within hours, Rush Tea Party, called the 9/12 project [39] has attacked Donald Trump on Limbaugh began playing excerpts of Carson’s address on his show the grounds that he is not a true conservative. Beck posted this criticism and telling his 20 million listeners, “I love this guy [42].” According of Trump on his Facebook page. to politico, his prayer breakfast speech was accessed over three million times during the subsequent 14 months [43]. The same week as the He is part of the problem when he by his own admission, buys prayer breakfast, the Wall Street Journal, ran an editorial entitled politicians; he said he identifies his “policies more as a democrat”; he “Ben Carson for President.” The following month, Carson was invited makes President Obama look truly humble; he was very pro abortion to address the influential Conservative Political Action Conference until recently; he still says “don’t defund planned parenthood”; he is pro (CPAC) in Washington D.C. While there, Carson met Sarah Palin ”assault weapon ban”. He is in favor of a wealth tax that would just “take who greeted him with “We are not worthy” presumably to be his money out of people’s bank account” he is a progressive ‘republican; He companions. This was followed by a series of interviews with Sean says single payer health care works; he said he would give people more Hannity who asked Carson, “would you ever run for president, sir,” than just Obama Care; the First Lady would be the first to have posed nude in lesbian porn shots; he said that. He keeps all the bibles he is and Fox News hired Ben Carson for a series of interviews. He also gave given in a “special place” outside the city-and he only goes to church on four or five speeches a week for Republican congressional candidates, Christmas and Easter; he is generally not a likable guy; he has around for the causes he supports and to promote his books. Carson wrote 16% favorability with Hispanics and he has gone bankrupt four times. two books, One Nation and an e-book entitled One Vote. The second The second criticism is that Donald Trump is a demagogue and would book was on the New York Times bestseller list for 20 weeks and was be a threat to the Republic if he were elected. According to George number one for five weeks. This book outsold Hillary Clinton’s book, LeMieux, a former US Senator from Florida, and chairman of the Hard Choices. This started a grassroots Carson-for president drumbeat Republican Party in Broward County in Florida, Trump is a “mixture throughout the country. of P.T. Barnum and Joseph McCarthy, a showman with the knack Carson’s super PAC for sensationalism combined by a demagogue whose first response is to attack and ridicule his opponents [40].” LeMieux compared John Phillip Sousa IV, the great-grandson of the composer, a Tea Trump to Huey Long, the “populist and bombastic governor and Party activist, and supporter of the Tea Party Express, undertook a U.S. senator from Louisiana” whose dictatorial control of Louisiana mission to persuade Carson to run for president. Sousa said “we only was only stopped by an assassins bullet in 1935. The only difference have one objective to get him to the White House in January 2017. In

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August 2013, Sousa and his friends created the National Draft Ben network.” They have chairs or co-chairs in all 99 Iowa counties and are Carson for President Committee. They sent out thousands of mailings well on their way to organizing at the precinct level with about 800 of to Tea Party activists asking for supporters to sign a petition asking 1,682 precinct chairs [43]. Carson to run and to send-in donations. His goal was to raise $13 million by the end of 2014. Their super PAC was called “Run Ben Run” Parallels with the trump campaign and within one year, they raised $13 million from more than 150,000 Ben Carson’s campaign parallels that of Donald Trump. Both donors. This exceeded the $12.1 million raised by Hillary Clinton’s candidates depend upon Tea Party support. In an opinion editorial in super PAC, “Ready for Hillary”, during the same period [42]. Carson the Washington Times, on April 8, 2014, Carson made the following also had his own PAC called the American Legacy PAC. It raises funds statement. These modern-day patriots (Tea Party members) are ordinary to “build public support for a series of patient-centered reforms to citizens who toil day by day to provide food, education, and safety for our replace Obama care and help elect congressmen who are committed to citizens. These are the people who fill the ranks of the Tea Party. They are implementing those reforms. The PAC has raised about $6 million for not demons, but defenders of freedom. They are you and me [42]. Carson the project. Sousa sent Dr. Carson a letter a week to his home in West also criticized “establishment conservatives” who attack the Tea Party. Palm Beach containing between 3,000 and 6,000 petitions. The letters They are patriotic citizens who seek to preserve the liberties that were included books on policy issues they thought he should read. When fought for by early Tea Party patriots. Ben Carson has even tied his Carson did not discourage Sousa’s draft effort during an interview by candidacy, in theory at least, to Donald Trump campaign. For example, Fox News in 2013, the committee concluded that Carson had given the in July 2015, Carson said that his candidacy befitted from Trump’s draft effort a “wink.” entry into the race. Carson explained that Trump gets a lot more A CNN/ORC presidential poll of Republican voters carried media attention than he does and “the things that we talk about are out from November 21-23, 2014 transformed Ben Carson from a very similar.” Carson implied that Trump’s supporters also supported political phenomenon to a serious candidate. The poll showed that 20 him [43]. When asked about Donald Trump as his possible vice percent of voters choose Mitt Romney as their first preference for the presidential candidate, Carson said “all things are possible [40].”Dr. nomination followed by Ben Carson with 10 percent of the vote. Big Carson also shares with Donald Trump a visceral contempt for name establishment candidates, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, trailed “political correctness.” While addressing the “Defending the American Carson with 9 and 8 percent respectively [43]. This poll result was Dream Summit” sponsored by Americans for Prosperity, Carson made followed by a series of straw polls at Tea Party gatherings in which the following comment. I hate political correctness so much because it’s Carson won the vote. For example, in early September 2014, Carson antithetical to the founding principle of our nation freedom of speech won the Polk County, Iowa Party Dinner Straw Polls with 62% of the and freedom of expression. We have reached the point where the average vote easily defeating Ted Cruz who came in second with only 7%. On citizen is afraid to express himself. If you believe in traditional marriage, September 15, 2014, he won a Maryland straw poll by 31.8% vote. And then you’re anti-gay; you’re a homophobe. If you are a white person and Carson was consistently ranked number one in polls on likeability and you disagree with a progressive black person you’re a racist. If you‘re a trustworthiness. In February 2015, NBC News/Marist polls discovered black person and you disagree with a progressive white person you’re that Carson had the support of 6 to 10 percent of Republican voters crazy. It is all about intimidation [41]. Carson also shares in common in the early primary and caucus states of Iowa, New Hampshire and with Trump the fact that he is not a “Republican.” In fact, Ben Carson South Carolina. He also had 7% support from Florida Republicans only registered as a Republican in Florida on November 4, 2014 in in a Quinnipiac University poll [41]. Armed with public support and order to enter the presidential race. When Carson was a young man, campaign funding, Ben Carson announced his decision to enter the he was in his words a radical liberal Democrat. However, President presidential race on May 3, 2015. Even before Carson decided to enter Reagan’s “pragmatic” approach to policy persuaded him to shift to a the presidential race, John Philip Sousa IV and Vernon Robinson the Republican. However, when Republicans impeached President Clinton co-founders of the National Draft Ben Carson for President Committee in the 1990s, he was so disgusted by the self-serving hypocrisy of established a campaign organization in Iowa (the first caucus state). Republicans in Congress that he declared himself an Independent. This They hired a full-time staffer, Tina Goff, She was Herman Cain’s parallels Donald Trump’s contempt for both political parties and an Iowa State director for his presidential campaign in 2011 and started inclination to be critical of them. It is also in synchrony with the views working with Carson’s super PAC in April 2014. She assembled a of the Tea Party and that explains Trump and Carson’s popularity with campaign team and with the help of the PAC, they made 40,000 phone the Tea Party. Likewise, Carson’s Achilles heel is the same as Trump’s. calls per month with a staff of 32 in the Midwest. The PAC paid for Dr. Carson has come under attack by the Republican establishment as Carson’s books and sent them to every caucus member. They also built an “amateur” or novice politician whose gaffes prove that he isn’t a a dozen well-placed billboards in the Des Moines area and attended serious candidate. Ben Carson has a long history of making provocative county meetings and festivals throughout Iowa. Therefore, like Trump, comments. For example, he has compared the United States to Nazi when Carson declared his candidacy in May 2015, he inherited a Germany (as a threat to free speech), said that “marriage is between a formidable readymade grassroots campaign apparatus. For example, man and a woman,” said that “liberals are the most racist people there Sousa and Robinson bought a list of past Republican caucus goers and are,” and said that “Obama care is the worst thing to happen since sent them four mailers. They managed to get 4,000 of them to declare slavery.” Most Tea Party supporters, however, are unfazed by what they their favorite candidate in 2016. The undecided were first, 22%, Ted term “sound bites” taken out of context. They note that the country Cruz, was 17% and Carson, received 14% of the votes. In early primary elected a “sound bite master” as president in 2008, and again in 2012, only to discover that the sound bites were “outright lies” and their true states, Carson’s staff also has Tea Party connections. For example, the Iowa state director is Ryan Rhodes. He was a former chairman of the meaning was largely hidden by the media [42]. In other words, the Tea Iowa Tea Party and was the outreach director on Michele Bachmann’s Party sees media “outrages” as political theater that is selectively used Iowa caucus campaign in 2011. Congresswoman Bachmann was the by the elites of both political parties against the Tea Party and their co-founder along with Steve King, of the Congressional Tea Party political candidates. To date at least, these attacks against Trump and Caucus that was formed in 2010. Rhodes has built a “massive volunteer Carson have not diminished their campaigns.

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Conclusion therefore, unlikely to change Tea Party voting behavior. Ironically, the Tea Party may have pushed attack campaigns out of the limelight The significance of the Tea Party in the 2016 campaign is that its and forced candidates to actually reveal their own true views on a wide candidates led all other candidates by a large margin. Before 2014, the range of issues that they are trying to hide from the public. Tea Party only challenged Republican candidates in congressional, state and local elections. In the 2016 campaign, the top two candidates References for the nomination are Tea Party candidates Donald Trump and 1. Libby R (2015) Purging the Republican Party: Tea Party Campaigns and Ben Carson. These two candidates combined have more than 42% Elections, Lexington Books: New York. of the total Republican votes in the polls. If the other two Tea Party 2. Sabato LJ (2013) Not Their Cup of Tea: The Republican Establishment versus candidates, Ted Cruz’ and Rand Paul’s poll numbers are added, the Tea Party. the total percentage is 50%. By contrast, if all of the establishment 3. Alan I, Abramowitz (2014) Republican Leaders Two Choices, Democracy: A candidates’ poll numbers are combined (i.e., Fiorina, Rubio, Bush, Journal of Ideas 31. Kasich, Huckabee, Christy, Santorum and Jindal) they have less than 4. Miller SJ (2010) Survey: Four in 10 Tea Party Members are Democrats or 37%. That suggests that RINO candidates are competing for just over Independents. a third of the potential votes in the primaries and caucuses. This gives 5. Rapoport A (2013) Three New Facts About the Tea Party. The American Tea Party candidates an institutional advantage. This change in the Tea Prospect. Party’s electoral power suggests that the Tea Party has taken over the 6. Barstow D (2010) In Florida alone, there are more than 208 local, autonomous, base of the Republican Party. More than 60% of Republican primary grassroots Tea Party organizations. voters and caucus goers now support the Tea Party. They also represent 7. Steinhauer J (2015) John Boehner, House Speaker, Will Resign From the majority of campaign donors and “opinion leaders.” Regardless of Congress. the TV debate performance of RINOs or media attacks against them, 8. Confessore N (2015) Talk in G.O.P. Turns to Stop Donald Trump Campaign. Tea Party supporters will not support RINO candidates. Indeed, Tea The New York Times. Party advocates fiercely defend their candidates in the face of their so-called gaffes. In fact, the media attacks reinforce their belief that 9. Martosko D (2015) Trump Online Video hammers Jeb Bush for “act of love” rhetoric on illegal immigration with killers’ mug shorts. Daily Mail.com. the establishment is trying to destroy them and their candidates. In order to understand the full impact that the Tea Party has had on the 10. BoBianco T (2015) Club for Growth Targets Donald Trump with #1 million in Iowa ads. Republican Party, it is important to examine the characteristics of their leaders. Both of them are independents. Trump and Carson have at 11. Glueck K (2015) Ted Cruz is the only candidate that has not publically criticized various times in their careers been Democrats and Independents. This Donald Trump. fits the profile of Tea Party voters. Indeed, they are not “Republicans.” 12. Americans for Prosperity (2015) Economic Freedom in Action. They have affiliated with the Republican Party only because of its 13. Bykowicz J (2015) Scott Walker is King of Kochworld, Bloomberg News. historic commitment to fiscal discipline. Both of the candidates also 14. Voget KP, Martel C (2015) The Kocks Freeze Out Trump, Politico. have a crossover appeal to voters. For example, the polls indicate that 20% or more of Democrats would vote for Trump. And an estimated 15. Flynn M (2015) U.S. Chamber Plans $100 Million Campaign against 17% of black voters would vote for Carson. This is the reason that Conservatives, Breitbard News. other Tea Party candidates are not performing to their expectations. 16. Sundance (2015) Why I support Donald Trump’s Campaign-And It’s Probaly Ted Cruz, for example, relies heavily upon Tea Party evangelicals for Not What you Think. support. He has virtually no cross over appeal to Independents and 17. Agiesta J (2015) Carly Fiorina will appear in top-tier CNN Reagan Library Democrats. Likewise, Rand Paul narrowly appeals to Libertarians debate. and he has not been able to transcend that limitation. And despite the 18. Schreckinger B , Parti T(2015) Carly Fiorina is popular-but not for much longer. fact that Marco Rubio was elected to the senate in 2010 with strong Tea Party support, he has since lost their support. Rubio’s rise in the 19. CNN/ORC Poll (2015). Republican Party establishment has virtually killed his grassroots 20. Libby (2011) Operations Decisions and Incoming Statements: 90-99. support. Indeed, in the polls, Trump defeats Rubio in his home state, 21. Libby (2007) Operations Decisions and Incoming Statements. Chapter 3, Florida by a substantial margin. The Tea Party’s primary mission is to Financial Accounting, McGraw-Hill eds. overthrow establishment elites in the Republican Party and then to 22. Carson T (2014) Presidential polls so far before the election year are notoriously challenge the Democrat Party’s establishment and restore the country’s unreliable. However, such polls can legitimate an ostensibly “fringe” candidate constitutionally limited government. They believe in the Founders’ such as Trump and Carson. philosophy of amateur patriot citizens leading the country and reject 23. Kamisar B (2015) Pollsters dumbfounded by Trump. The Hill. any hint of a lifetime sinecure of professional politicians. Likewise, the Tea Party rejects “political correctness.” They want their candidates to 24. Bedare P (2015) Trump Third Party Run: 36% GOP supports, 19% of speak their mind without fear of offending particular “identity groups” Democrats Too, Washington Examiner. such as young professional women, blacks, Hispanics, and Muslims. 25. Gibson WE (2015) Florida Rally Prompted Trump’s Plunge into Politics, Sun Family dynasties are also anathema to the Tea Party. They also oppose Sentinel, July 25. “professional consultants” and pollsters who determine candidates’ 26. Patrick Leahy M (2015) Tea Party Activists Blast Beck Over Racism Charges. policy positions, and object to rehearsed speech, debate coaching and Breitbart News Network. copying the mannerisms of establishment political elites. It is precisely 27. Fuller J (2014) Donald Trump Mentions Jeb Bush at Tea Party Event, Gets the impromptu speech and “gaffes” of candidates that is valued by Boos from the Audience. The Washington Post. the Tea Party. They take the view that everyone has opinions and it 28. Boyle M (2015) Donald Trump Considering 2016 Run. Washington Examiner. is better for voters to know what candidates opinion are rather than hide them only to discover them after the election. “Gotcha” interviews 29. Hook J, Court E, Ted Cruz (2015) Donald Trump Lead Rally Against Iran on national TV or character assassination of Tea Party candidates is, Nuclear Deal, Washington Wire (WSJ’s Capital Bureau).

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30. Wilde R (2015) Trump Campaign Manager Derides Consultant Class: ‘It Drives. 38. Anthony M (2015) South Florida’s Ben Carson Prepares to Enter Presidential Crazy they have no say with Donald. Newsmax.com. Arena, Sun Sentinel.

31. Cirlli K (2015) Trump Builds his Political Machine. The Hill. 39. Klein B (2015) Turf Grass to Grassroots: The Unlikely force behind Ben Carson’s Iowa Campaign. 32. Garcia E (2015) Steve King: If the Iowa Caucus Was Today, Trump Would ‘Probably Come Out on Top’. National Journal. 40. Carson BS (2014) Carson: The Enduring Spirit of the Tea Parties, Washington 33. LeMieux G (2015) Recognize Trump Before It is Too Late, Tampa Bay Times. Times.

34. Zengerle J (2015) What if Sarah Palin Were a Brain Surgeon? GQ magazine. 41. The Blaze (2015) Ben Carson: Donald Trump’s Surge is Good for Me.

35. Politico (2014) Who is Dr. Ben Carson? Chris Moody (2014) Inside the Push to 42. Hensch M (2015) Carson: Trump a possible veep. The Hill. Draft Ben Carson for President, CNN, December. 43. Quinton J (2014) History of Gaffes Proves Ben Carson Isn’t a Serious 36. Fischer S (2014) CNN Poll: Romney, Clinton To 2016 Field. Candidate” The Ring.

37. Berkowitz B (2014) Dr. Ben Carson, African-American Conservative, Hits All the Tea Party’s Wacky High Notes,” The Smirking Chimp.

J Pol Sci Pub Aff ISSN: 2332-0761 JPSPA, an open access journal Volume 3 • Issue 3 • 1000183