27 May 2021

COVID 19 EUROCONTROL IMPACT ON Comprehensive Assessment EUROPEAN AVIATION

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 1 Headlines Traffic Situation Daily flights (including overflights) . 13,259 flights (39% of 2019 levels) on Wed 26 May 2021, slight increase (+5%) over 2 weeks. Traffic over the last 7 days is . Traffic relatively stable in the recent days after the large increase over the last two weeks.

. Positive impact of lockdown measures relaxation in Turkey at State level (+64% over 2 Compared to weeks), airport level (eg. Sabiha (+135%), IGA (+34%)) and for turkish operators (PGS, THY). equivalent days in 2019 . Solid increases for Portugal (+37%) (flows with UK), UK (+30%)(domestic + flows with 60% Portugal and Greece), Greece (+25%) and Italy (+12%) over the last two weeks. Other major States (France, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands) record slight declines. . Apart from Turkish operators, good increases for Ryanair (+36%, Portugal - UK). . Domestic traffic vs 2019: Europe (-62%), US (-23%), China (+2%), Middle-East (-40%).

2 2 Top 10 Busiest Airports 7-day average Dep/Arr flights on 20-26 May, compared to 2019

Average flights per day (week Average flights per day (week Top 10 Airports 20-26/5) 20-26/5) vs 2019 IGA Istanbul Airport 578 -51% Paris/Charles-De-Gaulle 507 -65% Frankfurt 504 -68% Amsterdam 494 -68% Madrid/Barajas 451 -63% Istanbul/Sabiha Gokcen 376 -42% London/Heathrow 364 -73% Athens 317 -52% Barcelona 282 -73% Vienna 253 -72%

Traffic Flow Economics Fuel price On 26 May, the intra-European traffic flow was (21 May 2021) 170 10,337 + 6% -62% Cents/gallon over past Compared flights compared to 2 weeks to 2019 Source: IATA/Platts 174 cents/gallon on 14 May 21

3 Overall traffic situation at network level

13,259 flights on Wednesday 26 May. Increase (+5%) with +672 flights over 2 weeks (from Wed 12 May). Increase (+5%) with +631 flights over 1 week (from Wed 19 May). 39% of 2019 traffic levels on Wednesday 26 May.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 4 Current situation

When excluding the Easter period, where traffic reached a maximum at network level, the traffic has been relatively stable at -64% since January but is now starting to increase over the last 2 weeks.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 5 Market Segments

The evolution of the segments is now almost getting back to pre- Easter trends. On 26 May 2021, compared to 2019: All-cargo is the only segment above 2019 levels with +9%.. Biz Aviation decreased to -9%. Charter decreased to -29%. Traditional, although a very small rise over the last week, remained stable, staying at -65%. Low-Cost remains the most affected segment decreasing by -79% vs 2019 but is showing an increase over the last 2 weeks.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 6 Aircraft operators (Daily flights)

Top 10 Turkish Airlines is the busiest airlines with 729 flights. Positive change in the ranking over 2 weeks for Ryanair, Pegasus and Qatar. Highest increase over 2 weeks for: . Pegasus (+203%) and Turkish Airlines (+51%) driven by domestic flows, after relaxation of the Turkish lockdown. . Ryanair (+26%) mainly driven by the flow Portugal-UK. . Lufthansa (+7%) mainly driven by domestic flows.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 7 Aircraft operators (Daily flights) Top 40 – Latest operations

Highest increase for SunExpress (+300%), Pegasus (+203%), Turkish Airlines (+51%), but also easyJet (+54%; many flows), British Airways (+34%) and Ryanair (+26%). Ryanair 4th , easyJet 12th, British Airways 20th. Traffic levels ranging from -99% (Brussels Airlines operates almost no flights on Wednesdays) to -12% (Wideroe) compared to 2019. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 8 Aircraft operators Latest news European airlines Ryanair issues a five year €1.2 billion Eurobond with a coupon of 0.875%; Ryanair is rated BBB. Air France launches a new staff solidarity movement to TAP state aid from Portugal annulled by General Court of the encourage volunteer assignments for social/environmental EU following an action brought by Ryanair; plans to operate causes. 49% of pre-crisis capacity in June. easyJet reports a pre-tax loss of £645 million of the six Wizz Air to open a base at Cardiff in June with eight routes. months to March 2021. El Al reports $140 million net loss in 2020. Iberia expects the acquisition of Air Europa to be completed during the second half of the year. Iberia signs tourism promotion agreements and announces route plans for Panama, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. KLM state aid from the Netherlands annulled by General Court of the EU following an action brought by Ryanair.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 9 Aircraft operators Latest news

Worldwide airlines Singapore Airlines plans to issue $4.6 billion of mandatory convertible bonds; records net loss of $4.3 billion for year American Airlines plans to operate daily Madrid/Miami to end March, including an impairment loss of $1.7 billion and Madrid/JFK services from 17 June for vaccinated on 45 surplus aircraft; commits to net zero carbon passengers. emissions by 2050

Cathay Pacific commits to net zero carbon emissions by South African Airways – Government states that “The 2050 by using SAF, offsets and enhanced efficiency; to acquisition of a Strategic Equity Partner is at an advanced resume Frankfurt and San Francisco routes in June. stage and could be concluded in the next 4-6 weeks.”

Delta Air Lines to operate thrice weekly JFK-Barcelona and Atlanta-Barcelona services from June/August respectively

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 10 States (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Top 10 Highest increases over 2 weeks: • Turkey (+64%) driven by Pegasus, Rank evolution Top 10 States on Wed 26-05-2021 Turkish Airlines and SunExpress. over 2 D over 2 % over 2 Domestic flows, after relaxation of State Flights (Dep/Arr) % vs 2019 weeks weeks weeks lockdown.  Germany 2108  -179 -8%  -68% • Portugal (+37%) mainly driven by  France 2022  -122 -6%  -60%  Spain 1658  -121 -7%  -67% low-cost operating flights from/to  United Kingdom 1521  +355 +30%  -77% UK.  Turkey 1443  +563 +64%  -52% • UK (+30%) mainly driven by easyJet,  Italy 1191  +129 +12%  -70% light aircraft operators, Loganair, BA  Norway 858  -33 -4%  -51% and Ryanair. Domestic flows as well  Netherlands 649  -35 -5%  -66%  Greece 558  +112 +25%  -64% as with Portugal and Greece.  Portugal 464  +125 +37%  -62% • Greece (+25%) mainly driven by light aircraft and Olympic. Flows with UK, Germany and The Netherlands, as well as domestic flows. • Italy (+12%) mainly driven by light aircraft operators. Largest increase on domestic flows. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 11 States (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Latest traffic situation

Highest increases for Slovenia (+69%), Turkey (+64%), Slovakia (+59%), Israel (46%). Traffic levels ranging from -83% (Ireland) to -31% (Armenia) compared to 2019.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 12 States, Associations and Authorities

Cambodia to require employees in the tourism sector to be vaccinated and display vaccination cards.

ACI Europe reconfirms the commitment of the European airport industry to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. IATA supports unrestricted access to travel for vaccinated travellers and free-of-charge tests where vaccination is not possible. IATA welcomes the decision of Germany to open its borders to most vaccinated travellers; calls for slot relief for this winter. Spanish Airline Association (ALA) rejects a proposal by the Prime Minister to introduce an environmental tax on airfares and eliminate some domestic flights.

FAA reports around 2,500 unruly passenger reports in 2021, including 1,900 reports of passengers refusing to wear face masks. Italian Competition Authority fines Ryanair and easyJet for non-reimbursement for cancelled services.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 13 Traffic flows (Daily Departure/Arrival flights)

The main traffic flow is the intra-Europe flow with 10,337 flights on Wednesday 26 May, which is increasing (+6%) over 2 weeks. Intra-Europe flights are at -62% compared to 2019 while intercontinental flows are at -61%.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 14 Country pairs (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Top 10

9 of the top 10 flows are domestic. Highest increases in flights over 2 weeks for domestic flows in • Turkey (+208%) mainly due to Pegasus, Turkish Airlines and SunExpress. • UK (+22%) due to light aircraft operators, easyJet and Ryanair. • Greece (+9%), mainly due to Olympic. • Italy (+8%) , mainly due to light aircraft operators.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 15 Country pairs (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Latest traffic situation

The busiest non-domestic flows were: • Germany-Greece (237 flights, +9% over 2 weeks), • Germany-Spain (213 flights, -13% over 2 weeks). • France-Spain (134, -26%) • Germany-Italy (130, +14%) • France-Germany (116, -6%) • Turkey-Ukraine (111, +18%) • UK-US (111, +3%). • Germany-UK (107,+7%).

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 16 Outside Europe

USA On tickets sold in mid-May, average airfares* were 24% below pre- pandemic levels. Fares remain depressed due to discounting on leisure/VFR and dearth of business travel. On 25 May, US passenger airline departures were 25% below 2019 levels with domestic down 23% and international down 40%. The domestic US load factor has improved recently, averaging at 83% on 25 May vs 90% in same week of 2019. * Fares (gross sales minus refunds) sold in the United States for future travel to/from U.S. airports

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 17 Outside Europe

Middle East China On 25 May, Intra-Middle-East traffic recorded 1,679 daily On 24 May, domestic traffic recorded 12,159 flights (+2% flights (-40% compared to Feb 2020). compared to January 2020 levels). International traffic from and to Middle-East recorded 1,285 International flights and overflights are still suppressed, they flights (-58% compared to Feb 2020). were stable on previous weeks with 1,312 and 388 flights respectively (-68% and -76% vs 1 Jan 2020). Overflights have remained stable around 268 flights over the recent weeks (-37% compared to Feb 2020).

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 18 Airports (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Top 10 and latest news

Rank Positive change for 8 of the evolution Top 10 Airports on Wed 26-05-2021 top 10 airports. over 2 D over 2 % over 2 Airport Dep/Arr Flights % vs 2019 Highest increases for: weeks weeks weeks  IGA Istanbul Airport 578  +148 +34%  -51% • Istanbul/Sabiha (+135%) and  Paris/Charles-De-Gaulle 507  +4 +1%  -65% IGA Istanbul Airport (+35%)  Frankfurt 504  +4 +1%  -68% mainly due to Pegasus,  Amsterdam 494  -16 -3%  -68% Turkish Airlines.  Madrid/Barajas 451  +8 +2%  -63% • London/Heathrow (+14%)  Istanbul/Sabiha Gokcen 376  +216 +135%  -42% owing to increases from  London/Heathrow 364  +45 +14%  -73% British Airways mainly.  Athens 317  +12 +4%  -52%  Barcelona 282  -25 -8%  -73%  Vienna 253  -6 -2%  -72%

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 19 Airports (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Latest operations

Largest increases for Ankara (+196%), Istanbul/Sabiha (+135%), Antalya (+72%), IGA Istanbul Airport (+34%), Lisbon (+32%), Tel Aviv (+25%) and Paris Le Bourget (+22%). Traffic levels ranging from -94% (Gatwick) to -51% (IGA Istanbul Airport) compared to 2019. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 20 Airports Latest news

Auckland Airport reports 714k passengers in April, down 60% on 2019; this includes ~68k international pax, reflecting the impact of the trans-Tasman travel bubble.

Flughafen Wien Group reports a net loss of €30.9 million in Q1 2021.

Frankfurt Airport to reopen 07L/25R, which has been used as a parking area.

German Airports Association reports April passenger numbers down 89% on 2019.

Orlando Airport reports April departures were 76% of April 2019 and this number increased to 82-85% for the first half of May.

Singapore Airport report April passenger numbers of 173k, down 97% on 2019.

Vienna Airport reports April passenger numbers of 269k, down 90.2% compared to 2019; forecasting 12.5 million passengers for 2021.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION Vaccination updates

Inoculations against COVID-19 have started at the end of 2020. By 25 May, Israel, Malta, UK, Hungary, Monaco and Serbia have reported that more than 25 people (per 100 people) were fully vaccinated (i.e. have received 2 doses of the main vaccines). Most of other Member States of EUROCONTROL are around 15 fully vaccinated people (per 100 people).

Graphs are showing data for the 41 Member and 2 Comprehensive Agreement States of EUROCONTROL.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 22 Economics

Jet fuel prices have started to rise since last Autumn, from around 100 cts/gal in October 2020 to 170 cts/gal on 21 May 2021.

The jet fuel prices are around 20 cents per gallon below pre-COVID levels.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 23 To further assist you in your analysis, EUROCONTROL provides the following additional information on a daily basis (daily updates at approximately 7:00 CET for the first item and 12:00 CET for the second) and every Friday for the last item:

1. EUROCONTROL Daily Traffic Variation dashboard: www.eurocontrol.int/Economics/DailyTrafficVariation (or via the COVID-19 button on the top of our homepage www.eurocontrol.int) • This dashboard provides traffic for Day+1 for all European States; for the largest airports; for each Area Control Centre (ACC); and for the largest airline operators.

2. COVID Related-NOTAMS with Network Impact (i.e. summary of airspace restrictions): https://www.public.nm.eurocontrol.int/PUBPORTAL/gateway/spec/index.html • The Network Operations Portal (NOP) under “Latest News” is updated daily with a summary table of the most significant COVID-19 NOTAMs applicable at 12.00 UTC.

3. NOP Recovery Plan. https://www.public.nm.eurocontrol.int/PUBPORTAL/gateway/spec/index.html • This report, updated every Friday, is a special version of the Network operation Plan supporting aviation response to the COVID-19 Crisis. It is developed in cooperation with the operational stakeholders ensuring a rolling outlook. © EUROCONTROL - May 2021 This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The information in this document may not be modified without For more information please contact [email protected] prior written permission from EUROCONTROL. www.eurocontrol.int

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 24