WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS Eastern promise DAN THISDELL & ROB MORRIS LONDON Our annual look at the changing size and distribution of or a one-word summary of the the world’s airliner fleet underscores surging demand for ­megatrend shaping the world’s ­commercial airliner fleet, read simply aircraft in the A sia-Pacific region and especially from China “China”. Our annual World Airliner F Census, built on Flight Fleets Analyzer data, reveals that the distribution of the global fleet has passed a milestone. A year ago, North America – always the biggest fleet region – led the in-service jet table with 30% of the global total, ahead of the Asia-Pacific and China, with 29%. This year those percentages are reversed. Today, Asia-Pacific, including China, com- mands 30% of the global passenger jet fleet, with North America at just 29%. China alone has 14%. The movement has been dramatic. A dec- ade ago, North America’s dominant share was 36%, with Asia-Pacific and China at just 20%. The other mature market, Europe, has seen its share decline from 27% to 25% in the same period. North America and Europe have seen their jet fleets grow by just 0.4% and 1.2% respec- tively per year over the past 10 years, reflect- ing capacity discipline and a focus on fleet AirTeamImages replacement. During the same period, China’s 787 is the seventh most-flown mainline type, with deliveries averaging 11 units per month fleet has grown by 2,000 aircraft – an annual rate of increase of more than 11%. The rest of Top 10 fleets: mainline aircraft Asia-Pacific has added 1,500 aircraft over the decade, growing at 5.1% yearly. Type 2018 2017 Change Moreover, it is worth noting that the in-ser- Airbus A320ceo family 7,117 6,838 4.1% vice fleet per capita figure is much lower in Boeing 737-600/700/800/900 6,343 5,992 5.9% Asia-Pacific – and also in Latin America – Airbus A330ceo/A340 family 1,424 1,389 2.5% than in Europe and North America, highlight- Boeing 777 1,416 1,378 2.8% Boeing 737-200/300/400/500 796 873 -8.8% Airliner in-service fleet by region Boeing 767 742 739 0.4% Boeing 787 675 564 19.7% Boeing 757 666 681 -2.2% Boeing 717/MD-80/MD-90/DC-9 529 588 -10.0% Boeing 747 462 480 -3.8% 29% 30% Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer. Data for 31 July 2018 vs 31 July 2017 29,463 Top 10 fleets: regional aircraft Total 4% Type 2018 2017 Change 5% 25% Embraer 170/175/190/195 1,353 1,246 8.6% 7% ATR 42/72 983 946 3.9% Bombardier CRJ700/900/1000 777 755 2.9% Embraer ERJ-135/140/145 522 468 11.5% Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer, 31 July 2018 Bombardier Dash 8 Q400 514 512 0.4% Asia-Pacific North America Europe Bombardier CRJ100/200 505 519 -2.7% 8,764 8,659 7,223 Beechcraft 1900 424 441 -3.9% Bombardier Dash 8 Q100/200/300 356 391 -9.0% Latin America Middle East Africa De Havilland Canada Twin Otter 324 330 -1.8% 2,021 1,480 1,316 Saab 340 213 222 -4.1% Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer. Data for 31 July 2018 vs 31 July 2017 24 | Flight International | 21 August-3 September 2018 flightglobal.com ANALYSIS ing the fleet potential growth of these devel- Airbus/Boeing commercial order backlog by region oping regions. Number of aircraft In the Middle East, the jet fleet has doubled 3,000 over the past 10 years and now accounts for 5% of the global total. 2,500 The outliers, in fleet percentage terms, are Africa and Russia/CIS. Africa’s fleet share has 2,000 decreased by a percentage point in the past several years, to 4%. In Russia/CIS, most of 1,500 the Soviet-era fleet has been phased out and its share has slipped to 4% from a high of 6%. 1,000 PROBABLE TRENDS 500 To make sense of probable trends in fleet size 0 and deliveries, note that global passenger ca- Asia-Pacific Europe North America Middle East Latin America Africa Unknown area pacity – measured in available seat kilometres Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer (ASK) – has grown by 4.6% per year over the Airbus Boeing past 20 years. That annual capacity growth has been about 0.8% behind growth in pas- senger traffic – measured in revenue passen- Airliner in-service fleet by region 2009-2018 ger kilometres. The result – attractive for air- Number of aircraft lines looking to fly full aircraft – is that passenger load factors reached historically 30,000 high levels in 2017, at just over 81%. From now, though, the 2018-2037 Flight 25,000 Fleet Forecast expects load factors to increase 20,000 only marginally, to around 83% in 2037. That is, capacity is set to grow more closely in line 15,000 with passenger traffic. Fleets Analyzer data further predicts annual passenger capacity 10,000 growth of 4.7% per year, just behind 4.8% traffic growth. 5,000 Unsurprisingly, China is forecast to show the strongest passenger capacity growth, ris- 0 ing by 7.5% per year in the coming 20 years. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jul-18 That is 0.1% lower growth than in the 2017 Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer forecast, based on new economic predictions, Asia-Pacific North America Europe Latin America Middle East Africa but it still leaves China’s fleet capacity grow- ing at more than twice the rate of North Amer- ica (3.4%) or Europe (3.2%). The rest of Asia- Global order backlog by region 2009-2018 Pacific will see growth of 4.7%. Number of aircraft By 2037, Europe and North America will 16,000 be roughly equal in passenger capacity, host- ing just over 4 trillion ASK. Both China and the rest of Asia-Pacific will have surpassed 12,000 those two most mature markets. Underscor- ing its growth trend, China alone will be clos- ing the gap on the combined ASK total of the 8,000 other countries in Asia-Pacific. A region to watch is the Middle East, where carriers are expected to expand passenger ca- 4,000 pacity by 5.5% per year to 2037, to a little bit less than 3 trillion ASK, driven by the Gulf 0 hubs. However, that growth rate has been 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jul-18 downgraded by 0.3 percentage points com- Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer pared with last year; with those hubs matur- Asia-Pacific North America Europe Latin America Middle East Africa Unassigned ing, growth is easing off. Latin American growth should remain ro- bust, at 6.1% – down slightly on last year’s Added up, the in-service passenger jet fleet and the rest for replacement. The standout forecast but still enough to roughly triple re- should more than double, from 22,460 aircraft sector in this growth surge is single-aisle jets. gional capacity, to about 1.6 trillion ASK. Af- at the end of 2017 to nearly 45,500 in 2037. Where today they account for 58% of the rica (4% growth) and Russia/CIS (4.1%) will Barely 14% – 3,000 aircraft – of the current- global passenger aircraft fleet (jets and turbo- double capacity, but both will still be far off ly-serving jet fleet will be flying in 2037, so props), by 2037 their dominance is expected the 1 trillion ASK level by 2037. 54% of jet deliveries will be for fleet growth to increase such that they make up 65%. Dur- ❯❯ flightglobal.com 21 August-3 September 2018 | Flight International | 25 WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS ❯❯ ing the same period, the fleet share of twin-aisles will increase by just 1%, to 18%. In-service fleet, China 2009-2018 The growth of single- and twin-aisle airlin- 3,500 ers will come at the expense of regional jets and turboprops. By 2037, those types will 3,000 represent just 8% and 9% respectively of the total global passenger fleet – down from 2,500 around 13% each at the end of 2017. 2,000 Meanwhile, Fleets Analyzer’s survey of global fleet data as of the end of July 2018 1,500 (See Census P28) throws up a few points to note. Boeing’s 787 is the chart-mover to 1,000 watch, having climbed over the year from 500 ninth to seventh most-flown mainline type. With deliveries running at 11 or more per 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jul-18 month, the Dreamliner fleet grew by one- fifth during the past 12 months. Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer Unsurprisingly, the Airbus A320 and 737 Number of aircraft order backlogs are now dominated by the Neo and Max updates; classic versions have virtu- ally disappeared from the on-order lists (see Order backlog in China 2009-2018 pie chart below). Gone completely is the Bombardier 2,000 CSeries, because it is now known as the A220. At Airbus, the A350-800 no longer ­figures in the backlog – Asiana Airlines con- 1,500 verted its order for eight to -900s – and the A340-200 is gone because the last one has been retired from commercial operations. 1,000 CHINA ASCENDANT None of that says anything about whether or 500 not airlines in China and the Asia-Pacific are set to be leaders in profit terms. But from a 0 global fleet development perspective, Asia- 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jul-18 Pacific prevails.