FROM THE ROAD BACK TO THE LITIC O S ROAD AHEAD P

Hugh Segal A

C S Stephen Harper has been prime minister for less than two years but as Conservative T É Senator Hugh Segal writes, he occupies so much space, and comes under such T intense media scrutiny, that it seems he’s been in office much longer. In this article, U I adapted from the new trade paperback edition of his book, The Long Road Back, AL Segal reflects on the fortunes of the Harper government and its prospects for continued survival in the minority House in 2008, as well as its ambitions to graduate to majority status in the next election.

Stephen Harper est premier ministre depuis moins de deux ans, mais il occupe un tel espace et suscite tant d’intérêt dans les médias qu’on le croirait en poste depuis beaucoup plus longtemps, écrit le sénateur conservateur Hugh Segal. Dans cet article adapté de la récente édition de poche de son livre The Long Road Back, il parle de la bonne fortune d’un gouvernement Harper minoritaire, de ses chances de survivre à l’année 2008 et de son ambition d’être majoritaire aux prochaines élections.

f it seems that Stephen Harper has been prime minis- still in its own mind the “natural governing party,” contin- ter of Canada for many years, it is not because so ues to be obsessed by what it sees as a rude and unjustified I much time has passed, or because his government has removal from its rightful perch. gone through controversies of great significance. Rather, Some Liberals believe this situation would not have it is because the media have subjected him, like most occurred had it not been for the alleged incompetence, cupid- other prime ministers, to daily coverage that has been ity, craven excess and narrowness of Paul Martin’s coterie. uniquely intense and corrosive. This coverage is often in This is wishful thinking of the rankest sort by party factions excess of actual news value, and derives partly from the determined to find blame anywhere but in the mirror. sheer number of journalists and columnists that Ottawa It is surely fair, however, to conclude that prospects attracts. Noting that Harper has been prime minister for would be far more favourable for the Liberals today if the less than two years may sound defensive, but it is a sim- Chrétienites had been more open to an orderly succession; ple statement of fact. Here are some other facts. It has if the victorious Martinites had been more respectful of a only been 45 months since Stephen Harper won the lead- prime minister who had delivered three consecutive majori- ership of a newly created Conservative Party, whose mem- ties for their party; if Ignatieff’s supporters had embraced a bers, when they belonged to the various antecedent modest period of apprenticeship for their “Great One”; and parties, has been at each other’s throats for the preceding if the Rae-Ignatieff forces had been open to some pre-final- 17 years. And it has been little more than four years since ballot collaboration at the Liberal leadership convention in representatives of the previously warring factions estab- December 2006. lished the form and policy of the new party in the sum- One can even imagine a plausible scenario in which mer and early fall of 2003. the Tories were defeated on their second budget (which did The short existence, so far, of the Harper government not lack controversial content) and Liberal hegemony was and the Conservative Party does not excuse whatever may reinstated with a Bob Rae government. Instead, Harper and have gone less than right or horribly wrong since the 2006 the Conservatives continue to face a Liberal Party riven by election. But these factors do suggest a time frame and con- internal dissent and with a leadership that is more chal- text that should inform any rational analysis of the chal- lenged than challenging. lenges that lie ahead. When we reflect on the immediate context of these challenges, let us note that we have seen one of this should in any way dilute the prospect some remarkable changes in both fortune and tone among N (should polls put them substantially ahead in the key political actors in Canada. Canada’s Liberal Party, Quebec and Ontario) of the Liberals forming a coalition

38 OPTIONS POLITIQUES DÉCEMBRE 2007-JANVIER 2008 From the road back to the road ahead with any parliamentary ally to defeat other players in a minority who provided the leadership to the government in the House and Parliament is not always a sign of cement a working alliance in that win back their self-proclaimed weakness. Indeed, it can be a sign of regard, aided by recruits like Jim birthright. One has only to recall strength. Bill Davis regained his Flaherty, Tony Clement, Robert 1979-80 and how easily an electoral- majority in Ontario in 1981 because Nicholson and John Baird, and early ly defeated and headed-for-retire- he had largely treated his opposition and courageous partners like Peter ment Pierre Trudeau — with with respect during the preceding MacKay. In the West, Harper’s leader- potential new leaders like John six years when his party governed in ship and the roles played by Turner and Donald Macdonald in the a minority situation. Conservatives like Jim Prentice, Monte field — was convinced by James The remarkably short time that Solberg, Chuck Strahl, Vic Toews and Coutts and Keith Davey, and by per- has elapsed since the days of two Rona Ambrose revealed a determina- suasive poll results from central warring conservative parties and the tion to espouse a contemporary con- servatism at home and It is surely fair, however, to conclude that prospects would be abroad. far more favourable for the Liberals today if the Chrétienites And the simple, polite had been more open to an orderly succession; if the and generous message of “open federalism” in victorious Martinites had been more respectful of a prime Quebec — combined with minister who had delivered three consecutive majorities for an election campaign that their party. evinced limited but precise policy commitments and Canada, to return and retake the gov- broad record of the first two years of competent execution, and treated ernment from the hapless Joe Clark. Conservative government under- voters with respect — produced 17 If power abhors a vacuum, then for score the finely honed strategic and extra seats in Ontario and a stunning the Liberal Party of Canada, potential policy skills of the present prime breakthrough of 10 more seats in power, easily regained, subsumes all minister and those closest to him. Quebec. It was a victory for balance matters of principle and personal Every victory has been hard earned over a monologue of the frantic. The ambition. That’s just how Canadian for Stephen Harper and his Liberals’ panic-driven TV ads, evok- liberalism works. Conservative Party. The real surprise ing the bogeyman of a secret hard- But recent shifts in fortune and was not that the party did not win a right agenda by the Conservatives, tone (which have also had their majority in January 2006, consider- were too late and too shrill to deny impact on the Bloc Québécois) speak ing that it did not even exist in the the Tories a victory. Nevertheless, to the range of possible outcomes 2000 election when it was repre- given how cautious Canadians invari- that Conservatives need to reflect sented by two unpleasantly compet- ably are at election time, these tactics upon as we chart our future path. itive and divisive forces on the may well have denied the Conservatives are not part of a party centre-right of Canadian politics. Conservatives a majority. that easily chooses the most practi- The real surprise was that it won at If there was a particular Liberal cal and successful electoral course. all, given the determined efforts of lack of balance on campaign and pol- Even the most compelling political the small-l and large-L liberal estab- icy execution that helped produce a pragmatism strikes some more nar- lishment in Ottawa. Conservative victory, what political row ideologues as demeaning and balance will enable Conservatives to unprincipled. For some, it is as if the he careful balancing, the policies win another mandate to govern in mere prospect of victory or sus- T and platform of principle, the mix the future? tained power reflects moral weak- of candidates who ran as Assembling the different parts of ness, an unacceptable compromise Conservatives in the 2004 and 2006 that balance will not be easy. The with the money-changers in the elections — all of these factors reflect challenge is clear: If the Conservative temple or the minions of Beelzebub. the modernizing role Harper has Party only sustains the balance that But the privilege of governing, espe- assumed and executed so well since moved it to power, it may not neces- cially in a pluralist and highly winning the leadership. For urban, sarily be able to broaden its reach to urbanized democracy, is awarded to maritime and central Canadian Tories solidify the added seats it took in those who, quite aside from every- largely from the Progressive 2006 in Ontario and its breakthrough thing else, actually want to govern, Conservative side of the House, it was seats in Quebec, much less win a with all the compromise and rebal- essential to embrace the dynamism of majority government. ancing that the task requires in a the new West, its economic force and What, if any, are the structural or pluralist society. Compromise with its political clout. And it was Harper political impediments to achieving

POLICY OPTIONS 39 DECEMBER 2007-JANUARY 2008 Hugh Segal

such a balance? There are several, not This is especially true of our men and whelmingly — and almost exclusively all of which are to be found inside the women in uniform. But any sense of — been from within. Expecting and good and the bad of the Conservative urgency at policy levels below the fre- exacting some creativity, energy and Party. Let me start with two: a disen- netic offices of cabinet ministers is, acuity in return is not unreasonable. gaged and unreformed public service frankly, hard to find. It is not accept- The second impediment to achieving and an apparently loophole-obsessed able for the public service to slow pol- balance has been the puzzling and Department of Finance. icy progress on foreign aid, excessive zeal among officials in The Prime Minister has clearly agriculture, infrastructure, defence, Finance when it comes to closing tax respected the civil service and its exist- health and skills development. At “loopholes.” ing structure, hierarchy and internal some level, the PCO, Treasury Board There is apparently a “‘wait for the appointment and patronage systems. and Finance bureaucracies are, if not Tories’ drawer” pathology in that The civil service, meanwhile, has yet working against Conservative policy department, which means that pet to fully engage in supporting the direction, deeply disengaged from its peeves are emptied onto the desks of Conservative government’s program. urgency or coherence. new ministers. Finance bureaucrats did The bureaucracy might complain, this to their minister John Crosbie, with some justification, that aspects of nother impediment is the inabil- and to Prime Minister Joe Clark in the government program beyond the A ity of the PCO, on behalf of the 1979 with the 18-cents-a-gallon tax initial five-point plan outlined during Prime Minister, to ensure policy that brought down the government. the election campaign are opaque or coherence. The Court Challenges They did it to Michael Wilson and nonexistent. But that would not justi- Program was set aside on the totally Prime Minister Mulroney on the GST, fy the apparently narrow advice they reasonable premise that it was not which collapsed the Tory poll numbers have given on income trusts and tax necessary to prime the litigation in the early 1990s to the point that planning, their foot-dragging on new pump, after a quarter-century of the winning an election was impossible approaches to foreign policy or their Charter of Rights and Freedoms and (the party’s popularity dropped from lack of creative advice on other the many court cases over that period. 29 to 9 percent in public opinion aspects of the Tory platform. Any civil There was general agreement that the polls); and they appear to have tried to service worth its salt will resist parti- litigation option made available by do the same thing on tax policy to Jim san pressure to implement bad policy. Bill S-3 (passed in November 2005), Flaherty and Prime Minister Harper. In fact, that is part of its statutory duty affording protection to English and The political impact of the govern- to the country. But when a party is French linguistic minorities and ment’s November 2006 decision to tax elected on a broad platform, the Privy enhancing the Official Languages Act, income trusts is as yet unclear. On Council Office and senior policy lead- would be provided for in another another front, Finance Canada has ership in the bureaucracy should seek way. Failure to do anything on this always fought devolution of full min- to offer ways of implementation that file has needlessly offended francoph- eral royalties to the provinces and ter- are reasonable, affordable and administratively com- What, if any, are the structural or political impediments to petent. I voted for the 2007 achieving such a balance? There are several, not all of which budget twice in the Senate are to be found inside the good and the bad of the and continue to support it, despite what appeared to be Conservative Party. Let me start with two: a disengaged and the hard work of Finance unreformed public service and an apparently loophole- and Treasury Board officials obsessed Department of Finance. in diluting initiatives for the working poor, or tilting against ones, which the Prime Minister and ritories, and it fights on still — as if it the middle-class investor. his ministers had no intention of were a political party unto itself. No new broad balance attempted doing. (In the end, the ministers There is a reason the Liberals did in the Throne Speech or budget will involved carry the can for this — as not embrace a higher gas tax and the be sustainable unless the govern- they must.) A simple regulatory or GST while in power. Their political ment addresses the breakdown of the programmatic initiative, at minimal instincts told them to let the Tories narrow and often self-serving cost under existing statutes, could pay the “political transaction costs” in bureaucracies that dominate have averted unpleasantness. full, before embracing these self-same Ottawa’s upper echelons. The Prime Minister has been loyal policies during their next inevitable On the ground and in the field, to the idea of a nonpartisan public time in power. Perhaps Finance offi- federal public servants are working service. Indeed, promotions, both cials have learned that Tories will pay hard, and by and large serving well. domestic and diplomatic, have over- the transaction costs more readily —

40 OPTIONS POLITIQUES DÉCEMBRE 2007-JANVIER 2008 From the road back to the road ahead

Policy Options photo Prime Minister Harper at his annual barbecue during the Calgary Stampede in July. Though Harper’s been in office less than two years, Hugh Segal writes, it may seem longer because of the intensity of the coverage and scrutiny to which a PM is uniquely subjected by the media.

“Tory duty” and all that. But our objectives. But a creative Throne include the coherent strength of the Conservatives should be wary. Such Speech containing a coherent vision Conservative government: Prime costs are usually steep, because the that engages Canadians can quickly Minister Harper’s clarity of purpose actions that grow out of these policies settle the nerves of both the govern- and policy integrity; the hard work of can run against core Tory voters, ing and the governed, and I believe able ministers; the adept adjustment whose votes may be vital in marginal the government achieved that with of the government to a more aggres- ridings during the next election. the Throne Speech on October 16. sive environmental stance; the open- These two impediments to any federalism engagement for which Tory rebalancing act need not be here are heartening signs in most provinces have expressed appre- fatal. But they did set the stage for T Canada and elsewhere of a new ciation; the dilution of the sover- the normal early-days angst of a new conservatism of substance and bal- eignist thrust in Quebec; and the minority government, making it dif- ance, one that is secure in its roots and serious and focused attention on ficult for Tories to define and meet humane in its application. These defence spending and procurement.

POLICY OPTIONS 41 DECEMBER 2007-JANUARY 2008 Hugh Segal

Moreover, Conservatives have over Paul Martin and the end of Keep in mind, however, that the revealed the contours of a Tory policy Liberal hegemony were achieved worst exile for Conservatives can be framework that can and should because Harper was the leader of a government itself. A party driven by broaden the party’s support base party that most wanted to do a job, a coherent philosophy of less govern- among women, among suburban and and Martin was the leader of a party ment, more freedom, lower taxes and urban voters and among Quebec vot- that appeared, rightly or wrongly, a fiscally restrained bureaucracy is ers. Elements of this framework most eager to keep a job. Canadians often not comfortable in power. The include the initial work done to pro- showed that they wanted, and still discomfort and awkwardness that duce a more principled foreign poli- want, a government that gets the job sometimes characterize a new admin- cy, a more robust defence policy, a done. From defence to a new hemi- istration are not bad things; at some more sustained interest in helping sphere thrust on foreign and develop- level they should be reassuring to low-income working Canadians, ment policy, from courage on Canadians. We should fear most the whether in the cities or on farms, and Afghanistan to keeping his five initial politicians who seem instantly at home with the instru- It is not acceptable for the public service to slow policy ments of government, be progress on foreign aid, agriculture, infrastructure, defence, they discreet or blunt. health, and skills development. At some level, the PCO, There is a new brand of Conservatism afoot Treasury Board, and Finance bureaucracies are, if not working around the globe, reflect- against Conservative policy direction, deeply disengaged from ed in leaders like Angela its urgency or coherence. Merkel, the German chan- cellor; Nicolas Sarkozy, the rapid adjudication of the commitments, Harper is fulfilling the the President of France; and David Aboriginal land claims process. While essential promise of the 2005-06 Cameron, hopefully a future prime there is more to do, solid work has campaign. minister of Great Britain. Unlike the already been achieved on foreign, rather dour and rigid tones of the defence, income security and tax pol- onservatism is at its best a mix waning Bush regime, the govern- icy. What Conservatives can always C of idealism and realism that tilts ments of these new Conservatives offer better than others on the politi- away from top-down state initiatives have a practical, conciliatory and cal spectrum is a more realistic and toward the community, the individ- activist bent — one that is optimistic pragmatic vision of Canada’s geopo- ual and the collective responsibility about society and realistic about litical and economic context. That of citizens to create and maintain an government. This new Conservative vision includes forging stronger ties orderly and free society. Though it approach is very much Harper’s to with our hemispheric allies and eco- may from time to time tilt to the shape and define in Canadian terms, nomic partners; addressing the New right or the centre, this balance as his government moves into the Europe and the dynamism of an Asia reflects a Canada whose geography latter half of its tenure. caught in uneven growth and spurts and geopolitical role require the skil- How that is done, the extent to of wealth and trade; and bringing to ful interplay of pragmatism and prin- which there is idealism and opti- health care and to the fiscal and ciple. Stephen Harper is the most mism about what Canadian society immigration systems the flexibility “everyman” prime minister we have can achieve, and humility and prag- and adaptation that are needed in ever had. His children attend public matism about the relative role of 21st-century Canada. school. His demeanour, while shy politicians and government, may These are the kinds of policy and reserved, is articulate and well determine whether the thrusts that have always character- thoughtful. He is above all a humane Conservatives’ time in office is a ized Conservatives at their best. As and considerate man. brief interregnum or the first step for the present incarnation of the Letting more of these qualities along a historic new path for Canada party, the early skirmishes over media show through — for example, by shap- and Canadians. access, overly centralized PMO con- ing a future vision of northern devel- trol, message coherence and opment and of inclusive economies — Hugh Segal, former president of the enhanced accountability very much would increase his appeal for most IRPP, is a Conservative member of the mirror what most new minority gov- Canadians and might well ensure Senate. Adapted from the updated ernments face; the intensity of these many more years of Conservative gov- trade paperback edition of his book skirmishes is to be expected, given ernment. His visit to Cité Soleil in The Long Road Back: The the partisan personalities on all sides. Haiti was a reflection of the core Conservative Journey, 1993-2006 In the end, Stephen Harper’s victory humanity of his world view. (Harper Collins, 2007).

42 OPTIONS POLITIQUES DÉCEMBRE 2007-JANVIER 2008