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Disaster Recovery Case Studies Germany Floods 2013

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Disaster Recovery Case Studies Germany Floods 2013 Disaster Recovery Case Studies Germany Floods 2013 In cooperation with 1 2013: The Flooding in Germany Introductory Commentary Jonathan Gale, Chief Executive, Bermuda Reinsurance, AXA XL The important role of (re)insurance in the speed of physical and economic recovery after a major disaster, especially when there is little to no coverage due to unavailability, insufficient capacity or lack of take up (predominantly because of economic reasons), has not really been studied in detail. The (re)insurance industry tends to focus on the potential for future events and events in the immediate past. However, there is a need for a deeper understanding of the aftermath of disasters over a longer time frame, as well as an understanding of the impact that insurance penetration has on the pace of economic recovery. Working with Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School (CCRS) we have been examining more than 100 catastrophes across the world over a three-year timeline to compare and contrast outcomes and establish conclusions and recommendations. Our original plan was to have one consolidated report released in 2020 but the case studies (this one covers 2013 Germany floods) produced by CCRS were so interesting and of such quality we thought it would be beneficial to share these as they became available. CCRS will still issue a consolidated report in April 2020. We intend to make available publicly all of the detailed work in an open source database and also to establish a template to study future catastrophes in a structured way. Our aim is for this work to be used as a tool by policymakers and governments worldwide when evaluating disaster preparedness and seeking to fully understand, from the lessons learned by others, the impact of displacement of populations; increasing personal debt levels; change in economic mix of industry; political upheaval and overall time to recover, among other things. We also want to explain the marginal increased cost in relation to the value of rebuilding with resilience – what we call “building back better” – over and above the cost of replacement. The (re)insurance industry needs to provide extra limit and contractual stipulations for “building back better” to minimize the impact of future disasters. Intuitively, we know the speed and scale of protection the (re)insurance industry provides dramatically reduces the recovery time for communities which have suffered through extreme catastrophes. However, we believe that it is imperative that this be demonstrated in more detail with evidence and placed in front of the right people to effect change – particularly governments. We are starting to see good progress in terms of the increased role of governments in closing the gap between economic loss and insured loss – since we started these papers we have seen the FEMA program in Report Citation: the US placed in the market for the first time; Flood Re in the UK become fully operational and most recently Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies and the California Wildfire Fund established by the State of California and managed by the California Earthquake AXA XL, 2019. Disaster Recovery Case Authority (CEA), at least initially. Studies: Germany Floods 2013. Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies at the University of We are encouraged by this and will continue to support these initiatives with reinsurance and by sharing our Cambridge Judge Business School. findings from studies such as these. or Carpenter, O., Platt, S., Mahdavian, F., 2018; Disaster Recovery Case Studies: The views, findings and opinions in this case study are those of the researchers at CCRS and not necessarily those of AXA XL. Notwithstanding this, we are proud to be associated with this project and are sure that by gaining a greater level of understanding, we will ultimately develop more catastrophe reinsurance solutions and, more Germany Floods 2013. Cambridge Centre importantly, show the world the true value and social benefit of (re)insurance. for Risk Studies at the University of AXA XL is the Property & Casualty and Specialty division of AXA Group: providing products and services through four business groups: AXA XL Insurance, AXA XL Cambridge Judge Business School. Reinsurance, AXA XL Art & Lifestyle and AXA XL Risk Consulting. 2 2013 Floods in Germany AXA XL / Reinsurance 3 Contents Abstract Section 1: Event Context Abstract 2 June 2013 saw major floods across Europe, including the most Hazard Characteristics severe flooding in Germany in the last 60 years, with record In the summer of 2013, unprecedented Section 1: Event Context 3 water levels along the lengths of the Elbe and Danube rivers. This flooding occurred throughout central Hazard Characteristics 3 case study examines the impacts of the floods in Germany – a Europe, affecting the western regions Socioeconomic Context 4 high-income economy with relatively high non-life insurance of the Czech Republic, Austria, and the Risk Landscape 4 penetration – and the subsequent socioeconomic recovery. southern and eastern German states. Particular attention is given to Passau, a city on the Danube Germany was particularly affected, Section 2: Disaster Impacts 5 that was among the worst affected, and where supportive experiencing the most severe large-scale Physical Impacts 5 fieldwork was conducted in 2019. The floods cost the German flooding in at least the last 60 years. May Social Impacts 5 economy between $6.7-9.1 billion, with severe and national-scale 2013 saw precipitation exceed monthly Economic Impacts 5 impacts on economic sectors including transport and critical averages by up to 300% throughout infrastructure, manufacturing, commerce, and on residential Germany, and new soil-moisture records Section 3: Disaster Management housing. The 2013 event is placed in the context of similarly were observed for 40% of the national and Resourcing 7 devastating floods in 2002, when serious deficiencies in flood territory. Flooding progressed along the Success of Disaster Management 7 risk management were exposed, subsequently provoking major Elbe catchment (including the Saale, Disaster Financing and the Role of changes in the German approach to flood risk management. Mulde, and Elbe tributaries), a main artery Insurance 7 Therefore, the nation was more aware of and better prepared flowing northwards through Germany in for flooding, and physical protection measures were widely to the North Sea, and Danube catchment Section 4: Recovery and Resilience 9 implemented, so the 2013 event caused comparably lower (including the Isar and Inn tributaries), Overview 9 damages that those in 2002. flowing west to east through Germany and Speed of Recovery 9 beyond south-eastwards. Flood stages Quality of Recovery 10 Although the scale of the event challenged disaster management were the highest ever recorded along State of Resilience Today 10 capabilities, the response and recovery efforts were generally well hundreds of kilometers of rivers (Figure 1). managed. Residential flood insurance penetration has remained Section 5: Discussion 12 relatively low in Germany despite slow growth in the market since Eight of Germany’s 16 federal states Recovery Outcomes: 2002, and only 32% of buildings across Germany were insured experienced some level of impact. Successes and Failures 12 in 2013. Recovery was primarily financed by the state, which Along the Danube river flooding Considerations for the allocated a total budget of €8 billion, while the insurance sector Figure 1: Extent of flooding across central Europe in June 2013 and selected record particularly affected the cities of Passau Insurance Sector 12 covered €1.65 billion (about 20%) of total losses. The recovery high-water levels. (Alexrk2/Wikipedia 2013) and Daggendorf, and the surrounding effort was generally judged a success as a result of adequate areas. Passau, the location of detailed Section 6: Key Findings 13 management and available finance, and 93% of households fieldwork for this study, is situated at the had returned to normal in under two years; although, certain confluence of the rivers Danube, Inn and Section 7: References 14 local, severely affected areas were much slower to recover. A Ilz, and water levels reached the highest negligible macroeconomic impact was felt, and economic activity recorded level since 1501 (Figure 2). Acknowledgments 16 recovered quickly. Five years after the event, 93% of private sector Along the Elbe, the most affected areas repairs had been completed, but despite localised successes, included Dresden, Grimma, Leipzig, Halle, the opportunity to incorporate resilience into recovery was not and Magdeburg. Munich and Landshut capitalised on. The reliance on state aid in particular hindered – both major municipalities on the River progressive measures, although since 2013 regulations have been Isar avoided serious damage due to developed to advance the role of insurance while rolling back flood protection measures implemented Disclaimer Information: The views contained in this report are entirely those of the research team of the Cambridge Centre for reliance on ex-post state aid. There is an increasing emphasis on following previous flooding, namely the Risk Studies, and do not imply any endorsement of these views by citizens’ taking responsibility for their own flood preparedness Sylvenstein Dam, heightened in 2000 to the organisations supporting the research, or our consultants and collaborators. The results of the research presented in this report and protection, although the uptake and success of this evolution increase its capacity. are for information purposes only. This report is not intended to is yet to be seriously tested in Germany. provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. The Centre is not liable for any loss or damage arising from its use. Any commercial use will require a license agreement with the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. Copyright © 2018 by Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. 4 2013 Floods in Germany AXA XL / Reinsurance 5 Section 2: Disaster Impacts coordinating the management of flood reduce flood risk, including the German Physical Impacts risk in Germany, while the Committee Flood Protection Act of 2005.
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